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Crafoord Days 2018 – Abstracts and Programmes Crafoord Days 2018 22–24 may in lund and stockholm, sweden The Crafoord Prize in Geosciences Abstracts and Programmes PHOTO: JUSTIN KNIGHT, INTERACADEMY KNIGHT, JUSTIN PHOTO: COUNCIL KNIGHT JUSTIN PHOTO: SYUKURO MANABE SUSAN SOLOMON Anna-Greta and Holger Crafoord Fund THE FUND WAS ESTABLISHED in 1980 by a donation to the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences from Anna-Greta and Holger Crafoord. The Crafoord Prize was awarded for the first time in 1982. The purpose of the fund is to promote basic scientific research worldwide in the following disciplines: • Mathematics • Astronomy • Geosciences • Biosciences (with particular emphasis on Ecology) • Polyarthritis (e.g. rheumatoid arthritis) Support to research takes the form of an international prize awarded annually to outstanding scientists and of research grants to individuals or institutions in Sweden. Both awards and grants are made according to the following order: year 1: Mathematics and Astronomy year 2: Geosciences year 3: Biosciences (with particular emphasis on Ecology) year 4: Mathematics and Astronomy etc. The Prize in Polyarthritis is awarded only when the Academy’s Class for medical sciences has shown that scientific progress in this field has been such that an award is justified. Part of the fund is reserved for appropriate research projects at the Academy’s institutes. The Crafoord Prize presently amounts to 6 million Swedish krona. The Crafoord Prize is awarded in partnership between the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences and the Crafoord Foundation in Lund. The Academy is responsible for selecting the Crafoord Laureates. 2 Content The Laureates in Geosciences 2018 5 Introduction to the Crafoord Prize in Geosciences 2018 6 ABSTRACTS IN GEOSCIENCES Role of greenhouse gas in climate change 8 SYUKURO MANABE, PRINCETON UNIVERSITY, NJ, USA Ozone depletion from pole to pole and its linkages to climate change 9 SUSAN SOLOMON, MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY, MIT, MA, USA Climate science: what next? 10 BJORN STEVENS, MAX PLANCK INSTITUTE FOR METEOROLOGY, GERMANY Stratospheric ozone depletion and surface climate 11 DAVID W. J. THOMPSON, COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY, CO, USA The global hydrological cycle and climate change 12 ISAAC HELD, PRINCETON UNIVERSITY, NJ, USA The intricate link between the ocean’s deep water formation 13 and climate through the ages AGATHA DE BOER, STOCKHOLM UNIVERSITY, SWEDEN Global warming: on melting ice and glacier engineering 14 JOHANNES OERLEMANS, UTRECHT UNIVERSITY, THE NETHERLANDS Macrobiome: coming soon to an ecosystem near you 15 MARY SCHOLES, UNIVERSITY OF THE WITWATERSRAND, SOUTH AFRICA 3 PROGRAMMES Overview programme Crafoord Days 2018 16 The Crafoord Prize Lectures in Geosciences 17 The Crafoord Symposium in Geosciences 18 4 The Crafoord Laureates in Geosciences 2018 PHOTO: JUSTIN KNIGHT, INTERACADEMYKNIGHT, JUSTIN PHOTO: COUNCIL KNIGHT JUSTIN PHOTO: SYUKURO MANABE SUSAN SOLOMON PRINCETON UNIVERSITY, NJ, USA MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY, MIT, MA, USA Syukuro Manabe, Princeton University, NJ, USA and Susan Solomon, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, MIT, MA, USA, “for fundamental contributions to understanding the role of atmospheric trace gases in Earth’s climate system” 5 INTRODUCTION The Crafoord Prize in Geosciences ILLUSTRATION: © JOHAN JARNESTAD/ THE ROYAL SWEDISH ACADEMY OF SCIENCES Illus tration: ©Johan Jarnes tad/The Ro yal Sw edish Ac ademy of Scienc Atmospheric physicist Syukoro Manabe Earth’s complex climate systems. The es created the first global climate model basics of his work remain fundamental to after his ground-breaking studies of contemporary climate models. atmospheric dynamics in the 1960s. In this model, he connected the processes Syukoro Manabe has long been a world- that take place in the atmosphere and at leader in physically based numerical ground level with the oceans’ movements climate modelling and his development and their thermal balance. This new way of the first global climate model is the of using large-scale numerical modelling foundation for all modern climate research. to predict how the Earth’s temperature is influenced by atmospheric carbon Atmospheric chemist Susan Solomon dioxide levels was a major breakthrough; solved the 1980s’ puzzle of the Antarctic researchers finally had the powerful ozone hole’s appearance, using theoretical tools they required to investigate the and chemical measurement-focused studies 6 INTRODUCTION in the Antarctic atmosphere. She examined conducted in the stratosphere. Later, the ice crystals in the stratospheric clouds Susan Solomon showed how the thickness that form there every year due to the of the ozone layer in the southern hemisphere extreme cold. These ice crystals cause the affects atmospheric flows and temperatures initiation of chemical processes that differ all the way down to ground level. from those that were previously assumed to occur. On this basis, Susan Solomon For more than 30 years, Susan Solomon’s presented a theory that explained the link studies have been at the absolute frontline between manmade CFC emissions and of research into the ozone layer and its the chemical processes taking place in the role in the Earth’s climate systems. The Antarctic stratosphere in the early spring, chemical reactions proposed by Susan ones that led to the extensive depletion Solomon are now one of the cornerstones of its ozone layer. Her theory was verified for all modelling of the stratosphere’s by the results of the measurements chemical composition. 7 ABSTRACTS IN GEOSCIENCES Role of greenhouse gas in climate change CRAFOORD LAUREATE 2018 SYUKURO MANABE, PRINCETON UNIVERSITY, NJ, USA When the concentration of greenhouse References gas such as carbon dioxide and water vapor Manabe, S. and Wetherald, R. T. 1967: Thermal equilibrium of the atmosphere with a given distribution of relative humidity. increases in the atmosphere, temperature Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 24, 241–259. increases not only at the Earth’s surface but Manabe, S. and Bryan, K. 1969: Climate calculation with a also in the troposphere, whereas it decreases combined ocean-atmosphere model. Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 26, 786–789. in the stratosphere. Meanwhile, the global Stouffer, R. J., Manabe, S. and Bryan, K. 1989: Interhemispheric mean rates of both precipitation and asymmetry in climate response to a gradual increase of evaporation increase, accelerating the pace atmospheric CO2. Nature, 342, 660–662. of the hydrologic cycle. The geographical Wetherald, R. T. and Manabe, S. 2002: Simulation of hydrologic changes associated with global warming. Journal of Geophysical distributions of these two variables also Research, 107, 4379–4393. change, affecting profoundly the distribution of water availability over continents. For example, precipitation is likely to increase in already water-rich regions, increasing the rate of river discharge and the frequency of floods. In contrast, soil moisture will decrease in the subtropics and other water- poor regions that are already relatively dry, increasing the frequency of drought. The simulated changes described above appear to be broadly consistent with observation. During the last several decades, we have explored the physical mechanism of climate change, using a hierarchy of climate models with increasing complexity. On this occasion, I would like to discuss the role of greenhouse gases in climate change, based upon results of the numerical experiments. 8 ABSTRACTS IN GEOSCIENCES Ozone depletion from pole to pole and its linkages to climate change CRAFOORD LAUREATE 2018 SUSAN SOLOMON, MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY, MIT, MA, USA Stratospheric ozone shields Earth from Concerns about ozone depletion led all biologically damaging ultraviolet light the nations of the world to agree upon a from the Sun, and is hence essential to Montreal Protocol to phase out production life. The possibility that human use of of CFCs. Identification of resulting chlorofluorcarbon chemicals (CFCs) could improvement of the ozone layer has deplete the stratospheric ozone layer was stimulated new directions in stratospheric first proposed in the 1970s, based strictly research, requiring a focus on fingerprinting on gas phase chemical reactions. Scientific similar to that of detection/attribution understanding in the 1970s and early studies for climate science. The first signs 1980s indicated that use of CFCs could of healing of the ozone hole have recently destroy 3–5 percent of the global total been detected, indicating the success of this ozone by about 2100. The discovery of the landmark environmental treaty. Ozone Antarctic ozone hole revealed a remarkable depletion does not cause global warming, but ozone decline about ten times larger and changes in stratospheric ozone can influence a century sooner than anticipated, and in wind patterns both within the stratosphere a completely unexpected location. The and at ground level, and thereby change ozone hole ushered in a transformation of some regional climates. Another important understanding through the recognition that direction of research is to understand how heterogeneous chemistry on the surfaces stratospheric wind and temperatures relate to of stratospheric particles could increase surface climate. Stratospheric harbingers of chlorine catalyzed ozone depletion far above tropospheric wind changes hold promise for that of the gas phase reactions. Campaigns improving not only physical understanding by scientists worldwide in the Antarctic and of climate change but also prediction.
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