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Defying Gravity

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Defying Gravity Investment Review 2018 1 DEFYING GRAVITY Foreign capital continues to pour into UK commercial property despite economic and political uncertainty UK Commercial Property Investment Review 2018 Sponsored by: Table of ContentsInvestment Review 2018 2 Overview ............................................................. 3 Key Trends ............................................................ 4 The figures in this report are based on all UK commercial property deals that have completed (not exchanged/under offer) during the relevant quarterly period. The deal data is collated by our dedicated investment Key Investment Deals in 2018 .................................. 5 research team who endeavour to speak to all investment agents, investors, and other involved parties ensuring the widest possible By Sector .............................................................. 6 engagement and most representative figures. All deals are for UK- based commercial properties including alternative classes such as student accommodation, hospitality, and build-to-rent. By Region ............................................................. 8 The figures exclude all debt transactions, refinancing, auction deals, Sources of Capital ................................................. 9 and business acquisitions. All deals submitted are added to the CoStar database for clients to view at a granular level and also run powerful, real-time analytics on, with the exception of any confidential Yields............................................................................... .... 11 deals submitted in confidence for aggregation purposes. With over 100 dedicated researchers, the unrivalled size of CoStar’s research Local Authority CRE Spending Spree Continues .......... 12 operation means that we have the ability to collect more deals/data than any other UK commercial property information provider. A Letter from Germany .......................................... 13 A Letter from America ................................................14 Why Do Investors Love Industrial? A Spotlight .............. 15 New from CoStar Analytics: Heat Maps .................... 16 Outlook for 2019 .................................................... 17 Outlook for 2019: Views from the Industry ................. 18 Q4 2018 League Tables: Investment Agents ................ 19 Every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information held within this report. The publisher cannot accept liability for any loss/ 2018 Annual League Tables: Investment Agents ............ 21 damage which may arise as a result of any error or omission of any data. Any data reproduced from this analysis must be accredited to CoStar. Data, Analytics and News Have Come Together ........... 24 3 Overview £54.4 BN SPENT 12% Robust spending by foreign investors led to another Big Six cities hit cyclical lows. The spread between prime strong year for UK commercial property investment and secondary office yields narrowed after having widened Y-O-Y DECREASE in 2018, despite continued uncertainty and a relatively d u rin g 2017. quiet fourth quarter. FOREIGN CAPITAL Capital continued to pour into so-called ‘alternative’ assets At £54.4bn, volumes in 2018 were down 12% from 2017, such as hotels and build-to-rent residential. The industrial RECORD 49% SHARE but 13% above the 10-year annual average. Foreign capital sector also remained popular, helping to offset a 30% continued to pour into UK commercial property, especially decline in spending on retail assets (subdued trading in the KOREANS & London offices but increasingly industrials. A record retail sector was the primary reason behind the number of 49% share of overall spending came from overseas last £1m-plus deals sinking to a six-year low in 2018). Industrial SINGAPOREANS year, with inflows from South Korea and Singapore rising became the lowest-yielding sector for the first time ever significantly. Interestingly, spending by European investors during 2018. PILE IN EUROPEAN also hit a 10-year high despite all the noise around Brexit. Overseas spending would have been even stronger had the Despite being a strong year overall, both volumes and deal SPENDING AT 10- £1.2bn Goldman Sachs HQ and £1.5bn Network Rail deals frequency were subdued in the fourth quarter, which is not carried over into Q1 2019. traditionally the busiest quarter of the year. At £15.2bn, it YEAR HIGH NUMBER was the weakest fourth quarter since 2012. Activity is likely Investment volumes were underpinned by healthy occupier to remain relatively quiet in the opening months of 2019 OF DEALS AT SIX- market fundamentals in most segments of the market. as uncertainty persists, before a possible rebound in the YEAR LOW GLASGOW Record amounts were spent on Glasgow, Leeds and City second half of the year. of London offices as vacancy rates in both London and the & LEEDS STAND OUT UK Commercial Property Investment Volume (£bn) HOTELS IN VOGUE 80 70 INDUSTRIAL IN 60 50 DEMAND RETAIL IN 40 30 20 FREEFALL SUBDUED 10 0 FOURTH QUARTER 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Source: CoStar Group Investment Review 2018 4 Key Trends Overseas Investors Stepped Up Record Year for City of London, Glasgow and Leeds Investors Steer Clear of Retail Oce Investment Local vs Foreign Investment 2018 Investment by Sector (£bn) City of London Glasgow and Leeds Oce Investment (£bn) Investment (£m) Coloured arrows and 2017 2018 percentages indicate Investment (£bn) Investment (£m) £26.4 per cent above/below £10 £500 2017 volume £8 £400 (25%) £6 £300 £13.0 (30%) £4 £200 £7.0 £7.9 £2 £100 £0 £0 2017 2018 Glasgow Leeds Retail Industrial Alternatives Local Foreign 2017 2018 Yorkshire & North East Stood Out American Investors Were Heavy Net Sellers Industrial Became Lowest Yielding Sector 2018 vs 2017 - Largest Changes by Region Net Investment by Investor Nationality (£m) Average Yield by Sector Coloured arrows and 7.2% percentages indicate % above/below the 2017 7.0% £0.79bn volume £10 6.8% North East £7.5 £8 £ 39% £ 6.6% £6 6.4% £1.79bn £3.2 Yorkshire & H. £4 £3.1 6.2% £ £ £ £ £2.3 43% £1.7 £ £1.6 £ £ 6.0% £ £2 £ £0.5 £ £0.2 £ £ £ 5.8% £ £0 £ £ £ £ 5.6% £2.3bn £1.9bn -£2 North West -£1.9 5.4% East of England -£4 -42% -28% 5.2% -£4.4 -£6 Oce Retail Industrial China & Singapore South Korea Germany U.S.A Hong Kong 2017 2018 Investment Review 2018 5 Key Investment Deals in 2018 London Office South East Office Regional Office Address: 5 Broadgate, EC2 Address: Landid/Brockton Address: Two New Bailey, Month: June Portfolio Salford Price: £1bn Month: August Month: March Price: £285m Size: 700,000 SF Price: £113m Size: 545,000 SF Size: 190,000 SF Purchaser: CK Asset Holdings Purchaser: Spelthorne Borough Vendor: British Land & GIC Council Purchaser: Aviva Investors Initial Yield: 3.95% Vendor: Brockton/Landid Vendor: English Cities Fund Initial Yield: 6.14% Initial Yield: 5.30% Retail Industrial Hospitality Address: Burlington Arcade, W1 Address: Griffin UK Logistics Address: Principal Hotel Month: May Portfolio Portfolio Price: £297m Month: October Month: May Price: £257.5m Price: £830m Size: 37,000 SF Size: 29m SF Size: 2,638 Beds Purchaser: Reuben Brothers Purchaser: Ascendas REIT Purchaser: Foncière des Régions Vendor: Thor Equities Vendor: Griffen Capital Vendor: Starwood Capital Initial Yield: 3.94% Initial Yield: 5.54% Initial Yield: 5.00% Build-to-Rent Healthcare Student Accomodation Address: Nash House, NW10 Address: Quercus Portfolio Address: Stellar Portfolio Month: October Month: December Month: December Price: £450m Price: £112m (75% stake) Price: £237m Size: 5,700 units across 93 Size: 1,857 beds Size: 546 beds properties Purchaser: The Collective Purchaser: AEDIFICA Purchaser: Arlington & Equitix Vendor: Fusion Students Vendor: London Properties PTE Vendor: Quercus Healthcare Fund Initial Yield: 5.35% Initial Yield: 4.00% Initial Yield: c. 7.00% Investment Review 2018 6 Investors Steer Clear of Retail With £26.5bn spent, office volumes matched the levels of spending recorded in the previous year and remained broadly in line with the sector’s five-year annual average. But while volumes remained steady, the number of transactions dropped to the lowest level since 2013 as investors continued to focus on prime, well-let assets, and steered clear of risk (a trend which has played out across both Central London and the regions in recent years). Spending on Central London offices edged up slightly to £15.6bn in 2018, partly driven by a record year in the City, with overseas investors behind 86% of the £8.1bn OFFICE transacted. In the regions, volumes were underpinned by high levels of domestic spending, as well as record investment in Glasgow (£535m) and Leeds (£404m). Spending gradually shifted to the regions as the year progressed. Retail investment fell for a fourth consecutive year in 2018 as investors deployed just £7bn in the sector (a drop of 30% Y-o-Y and the lowest annual total in a decade) amid a multitude of CVAs and store closure announcements. Spending was down across all subsectors, with the previously resilient retail park subsector recording the steepest decline. With just £1.7bn spent, retail park volumes fell 44% Y-o-Y to a six-year low. Meanwhile, shopping centre investment slumped to a decade low of £1.2bn (partly due to local authorities retrenching after spending heavily in 2017), and supermarket investment remained subdued. But it wasn’t all doom and gloom. The amount spent in London rose sharply from its 2017 low, aided by Reuben Brothers’ purchase RETAIL of the
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