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Investment Review 2017 £62.1 BILLION IN 20171 Soaring investment in the regions in Q4 caps surprisingly strong year UK Commercial Property Investment Review 2017 Table of ContentsInvestment Review 2017 2 Overview ........................................................3 Key Infographics ..............................................4 The figures in this report are based on all UK commercial property deals that have completed (not exchanged/under offer) during the relevant quarterly period. The deal data is collated by our dedicated invest- Key Investment Deals in 2017 .............................5 ment research team who endeavour to speak to all investment agents, investors, and other involved parties ensuring the widest possible By Sector .........................................................6 engagement and most representative figures. All deals are for UK- based commercial properties including alternative classes such as student accommodation, hospitality, and Build-to-Rent. By Region .......................................................8 The figures exclude all debt transactions, refinancing, auction deals, Sources of Capital ...........................................9 and business acquisitions. All deals submitted are added to the CoStar database for clients to view at a granular level and also run powerful, real-time analytics on, with the exception of any confidential deals Yields .............................................................11 submitted in confidence for aggregation purposes. With over 100 ded- icated researchers, the unrivalled size of CoStar’s research operation CoStar Repeat-Sale Indices ................................12 means that we have the ability to collect more deals/data than any other UK commercial property information provider. Best Performing Markets ...................................14 Occupier Market Conditions: National Offices ......16 Occupier Market Conditions: National Industrial ...17 Outlook for 2018 ................................................18 Q4 2017 League Tables: Investment Agents .............20 2017 Annual League Tables: Investment Agents .......22 Data, Analytics & News Have Come Together .........24 Every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information held within this report. The publisher cannot accept liability for any loss/ Get in Touch with CoStar.............................................25 damage which may arise as a result of any error or omission of any data. Any data reproduced from this analysis must be accredited to CoStar. 3 Well, that turned out better than expected. domestic investment (it was another record year for spending by local authorities), and a widening Overview Robust demand for regional assets led to another yield gap between prime and secondary property. strong quarter for UK commercial property investment in Q4 2017, which rounded off a Huge London deals continued to grab the surprisingly strong year. headlines, most notably the £1bn-plus sales of Mark Stansfield the Leadenhall Building and 20 Fenchurch Street Managing Analyst At £18.9bn, volumes in Q4 2017 were up 18% to Hong Kong investors. But such landmark deals compared to Q4 2016. It brought total spending helped to mask a decline in deal frequency in the in 2017 up to £62.1bn, a 27% increase from 2016 capital. Indeed, the number of Central London 2017 CRE INVESTMENT: and just 8% below the 2015 figure. The number office sales in 2017 fell to its lowest level in a WHAT WAS IT ALL ABOUT? of deals soared above 5,000. This better-than- decade. expected total was underpinned by strong £62.1BN SPENT 27% INCREASE occupier market fundamentals. However, it is not So how will UK commercial property fare in 2018? a uniformly positive picture across the country: Will investors continue to focus on prime, well-let FROM 2016 OVER 5,000 DEALS this report picks out the winners and losers at a property or feel confident enough to take on more market/sector level. asset management opportunities? Can yields go DONE REGIONS ON THE RISE any lower given the likely upward movement of STUDENT HOUSING STANDS OUT Key themes over the year included a big rise interest rates? Will global capital continue to flood in regional investment (which accelerated in into London? In an ever-changing climate, expect INDUSTRIAL POPULAR BIG SIX Q4), the enduring popularity of the industrial more surprises in 2018. OFFICES IN DEMAND RETAIL IN and student accommodation sectors, a rise in DECLINE RETAIL WAREHOUSES RESILIENT U.S. NET SELLERS CHINA/ UK Commercial Property Investment Volume (£bn) HK SPENT RECORD £8.2BN 80 LONDON TROPHIES POPULAR 70 60 LONDON DEAL FREQUENCY DOWN 50 LOCAL AUTHORITIES PILE IN 40 30 DOMESTIC INVESTMENT UP 25% 20 10 Y-O-Y PRIME V SECONDARY YIELD 0 SPREAD WIDENS FUNDAMENTALS 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 GENERALLY HEALTHY Source: CoStar Group Investment Review 2017 4 Key Infographics Investment Volumes Recovered Strongly in 2017 Regions in Demand in Q4 2017 Industrial & Alternatives Stood Out £26.5 Coloured arrows and £67.4 Five-Year Quarterly Avg Q4 2017 percentages indicate % £62.1 £ above/below 2016 volume £ 45% 39% £ £49.0 £ £15.8 £ £ £10.0 £8.2 55% 61% Oce Retail Industrial Alternatives 2015 2016 2017 London Regions (25%) (10%) (41%) (67%) UK Investment Volume (£bn) London vs Regions (% Breakdown) 2017 Investment by Sector (£bn) East of England & North West Recorded Big Jumps Record Inows from China & Hong Kong Industrial Yields Continued to Fall Coloured arrows and 7.3% £ percentages indicate % £ £0.57bn above/below 2016 volume North East £8.2 6.9% - 17% £ 6.7% £ 6.7% £ 6.6% £ £ £ £ £4.03bn £4.0 £4.2 6.5% 6.5% £ North West £ £ £ £ 6.4% 6.4% £ £ + 46% £2.73bn £3.0 £ £ West Midlands £2.6 - 13% £2.68bn East of England £1.1 +49% £0.89bn Wales + 72% China USA Germany Oce Retail Industrial & Hong Kong 2016 2017 2015 2016 2017 2017 vs 2016 -Largest Changes by Region Top Foreign Buyers (£bn) Average Yield by Sector Investment Review 2017 5 Key Investment Deals in 2017 London Office South East Office Regional Office Address: 20 Fenchurch St, EC3 Address: Milton Park Campus, Address: No. 1 Spinningfields, Month: August Oxford Manchester Price: £1.28bn Month: July Month: October Size: 688,000 SF Price: c. £200m (50% stake) Price: £200m Purchaser: LKK Health Products Size: 250 acres Size: 308,900 SF Vendor: Canary Wharf Purchaser: CPPIB Purchaser: Schroders Group/LandSec Vendor: Hermes Vendor: Allied London Initial Yield: 3.40% Initial Yield: 5% Retail Industrial Hospitality Address: Bluewater Shopping Address: Sainsburys, Address: Grosvenor House Centre, Dartford Birmingham Hotel, London, W1 Month: October Month: June Month: July Price: £152.5m (7.5% stake) Price: £102m Price: £575m Size: 1,868,455 SF Size: 803,605 SF Size: 494 beds Purchaser: Royal London Purchaser: Korean Consortium Purchaser: Ashkenazy Acquisition Vendor: Hermes Real Estate Vendor: IM Properties Corporation Initial Yield: 4.22% Initial Yield: 5.10% Vendor: Sahara India Pariwar Build-to-Rent Healthcare Student Accommodation Address: Springside, Edinburgh Address: Bupa Care Home Address: Pure Student Living Month: March Portfolio Portfolio Price: £215m Month: August Month: December Size: 400 Homes Price: £300m Price: £869m Purchaser: Moda Living Size: 9,000 beds Size: 3,644 Rooms Vendor: Grosvenor Purchaser: HC One Purchaser: iQ Student Accommodation Vendor: Bupa Vendor: Letter One Treasury Investment Review 2017 6 Grant Lonsdale Industrial and Alternatives Stand Out Real Estate Analyst Office volumes rose 25% Y-o-Y to £26.5bn in 2017, fuelled by strong demand for regional offices and helped by two landmark £1bn+ Central London deals (Leadenhall Building and 20 Fenchurch Street). Although foreign appetite for prime, well-let buildings continued, the number of Central London sales actually fell to a 10-year low as investors steered clear of riskier assets. In fact, Central London attracted just 58% of all UK office investment in 2017 (a 10-year low). In contrast, spending on regional offices jumped 17% Y-o-Y, helped by the strongest Q4 in a decade OFFICE (both in terms of volume and deal frequency). In fact, Q4 was only the second quarter where regional office investment eclipsed £1bn, helped by £100m+ trades in Manchester, Edinburgh and Liverpool. Retail investment fell for a third consecutive year in 2017. It dropped 10% Y-o-Y to just £10bn, the lowest annual total for five years and well below the long-term average. As a share of all investment, retail (16%) hit its lowest point ever and considerably below the average in 2009–11 (36%). With less than £2bn traded, it was one of the weakest years ever recorded for shopping centres. Supermarket investment rose slightly from its 2016 low, but remained fairly subdued. Retail warehouses, however, proved resilient, with some investors viewing the sub-sector as RETAIL comparatively defensive against a changing consumer landscape. Industrial investment jumped to a 10-year high in 2017 as investors—encouraged by strong fundamentals and positive long-term structural trends—poured £8.2bn in to the sector, a rise of 41% Y-o-Y and 41% above the five-year annual average. As a share of all investment, industrial reached its highest ever proportion (13%). Portfolios were especially popular: a record £2.6bn was spent on this type of deal, led by Blackstone and M7’s purchase of a light industrial portfolio from Brockton and Dunedin for £559m in Q3. The number of portfolio trades (49) rose sharply on the previous year (28), with nine selling for a price
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