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Impact of Climate Change & Extreme Events on The IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE & EXTREME EVENTS ON THE PRAIRIES Suren Kulshreshtha University of Saskatchewan Presentation made at the Meeting of Prairie Regional Adaptation Collaborative II, March 18 2013, Calgary, AB Presentation made to the Prairie Regional Adaptation 3/18/2013 Collaroborative (PRAC II) 2 Synopsis of Presentation • Climate change and its impacts • Extreme Events in the Prairies • Regional Variability in Occurrence of Extreme Events • Adaptation to Climate Change and / or Extreme Events • Economic Cost of Droughts and Needed Improvements • Knowledge Gaps What is ‘climate change’? • Refers to a statistically significant variation in either the mean state or in its variability persisting for an extended period (IPCC 2001) • Causal factors: Natural factors -Solar variability -Volcanic dust levels -Internal variability -Geological change Human factors - Greenhouse gases emission - Aerosols -Ozone depletion -Land use change Presentation made to the Prairie Regional Adaptation 3/18/2013 Collaroborative (PRAC II) 4 Accepted Impact of Climate Change • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has predicted that with climate change, there will be: • 1. Warmer world, specially in the northern latitudes. • 2. Variability in precipitation, including form of precipitation in some parts of the Prairies • 3. Increased frequency of extreme events, such as droughts and floods • 4. Sea Level rise) not of much concern in the Prairie region, except for the region around the Port of Churchill. Warming of the climate system is very clear and very likely related to human activities • Increasing global air and ocean temperatures IPCC 2007) • Rising global average ( sea level • Reductions of snow and ice Presentation made to the Prairie Regional Adaptation 3/18/2013 Collaroborative (PRAC II) 6 Past evidence on Warmer World in the Prairie Region • Temperatures have been increasing specially during the winters • Growing season is getting longer • There are other factors (some negative) to think about What is the new Canadian climate like? (Temperature increases 1953-2005) (Vincent et al. 2007) Precipitation Trends 1901-2006 (% Changes/ Century; US Climate Change Science Program 2007) Earlier Springs and Later Autumns (1950-98 in days; Bonsal et al. 2001) Spring Autumn 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 The Snow-cover Season is Shrinking Days with Snowcover (greater the 2cm, departure from 1961- 1990 normal) Canadian Prairies for the Canadian Prairies Region, 1955 - 2001 (Anomalies from 1961 to 1990 mean) (49° to 53°N 114° to 95°W) 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 Departure from Normal (Number of days) of (Number Normal from Departure -40 -50 -60 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 After Wheaton 2005 (Data: Brown 2003) The number of blizzards has fallen sharply in the Prairies since 1953 (Lawson 2003) ( > +35°C, Saskatoon, SK) Saskatoon, ( >+35°C, variable still are High temperatures Number of Days 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Number of Days SK) Saskatoon, (<-40°C, rare becoming are temperatures Low 10 12 0 2 4 6 8 1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Forests are adapting to the new climate regime: Plant phenology is changing: Spring blooming dates for aspen poplar have shifted 26 days earlier in the past several decades on the Prairies (Beaubien and Freeland 2000) Presentation made to the Prairie Regional Adaptation 3/18/2013 Collaroborative (PRAC II) 15 Impact of climate change on economic sectors • All sectors of the economy are affected under a changed climate • Major impacts would be felt by: • Agriculture, • Forestry, • Northern Transportation, • Health, • Water based recreation Presentation made to the Prairie Regional Adaptation 3/18/2013 Collaroborative (PRAC II) 16 Other Significant effects of climate change • Higher evapotranspiration • More precipitation in the form of rain (as against snow at present) • This will affect moisture availability to crops (as more rain water will be make as run-off • Both of these factors will increase soil aridity 17 Presentation made to the Prairie Regional Adaptation 3/18/2013 Collaroborative (PRAC II) 18 Future Precipitation Changes: 2071-2100 19 ! ! 20 Presentation made to the Prairie Regional Adaptation 3/18/2013 Collaroborative (PRAC II) 21 Crop Yields in Higher Latitudes will decrease as temperatures increase Presentation made to the Prairie Regional Adaptation 3/18/2013 Collaroborative (PRAC II) 22 Changing Vegetation Zones Presentation made to the Prairie Regional Adaptation 3/18/2013 Collaroborative (PRAC II) 23 Extreme Events in Prairies • Due to high variability, frequency of droughts and heavy precipitation (within a shorter period of time) would increase • These would have a devastating impact on the Prairie economy 24 Drought Trends PDSI, CoronationPALMER DROUGHT A, AB SEVERITY Summer INDEX TIME (JJA) SERIES 1902 – 2001 Coronation A, AB Summer 1945 - 2001 8 JJA 6 Trendline (linear) 4 2 0 wetter drier -2 -4 Palmer Drought Severity Index -6 -8 -10 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Data: Skinner p. comm. 2002 Wheaton et al 2005 Drought Spatial Patterns • 2001 and 2002 drought years appear to be the most extensive of this set of major droughts • Preferred area for droughts in Canada is the southern prairie provinces • Northward extension of these recent droughts appears unusual • 2001-2002 was a major multi-year drought, unlike most others Wheaton et al, 2005 Recent Extremes include Droughts & Floods and More are Expected Flooded agricultural land east of Vanguard July 2000 (Hunter et al. 2003 Photo: SWA) Impacts of the 2001-2002 Drought (Wheaton et al. 2005,2008) Person !Previously reliable and good quality water supplies were severely affected, and some failed !Records were set; e.g., lowest water levels in the Georgian Bay Area !The number of prairie sloughs was the lowest on record in May 2002 Pastures suffer during drought 30 The image cannot be displayed. 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Droughts are likely to become worse Central North America Today 60 40 ~2070 20 ReturnPeriod (years) 0 10 15 20 25 30 Length of Dry Spell (days) 32 Impact of Climate Change on Excess Moisture (2) • Intensity and frequency of rain event will increase under climate change • Many areas will experience severe flooding, leading to lost cropped area, delay in seeding, and perhaps harvesting of crops, and a cost to public treasury (2010 experience of Saskatchewan) • No study was found that has estimated cost of such events Presentation made to the Prairie Regional Adaptation 3/18/2013 Collaroborative (PRAC II) 33 Adaptation to Climate Change and / or Extreme Events • Natural systems are adaptable • Natural systems adapt in a reactive nature • For the social system, Charles Darwin once stated that those who will survive are not the fittest, or smartest, but those who are adaptable • Under any major deviations from normal conditions, humans make adjustments • Humans are adaptable, definitely in reaction to an extreme event, but also in an anticipatory nature • In the wake of climate change, however two problems arise: • Our knowledge of what adaptation measures are effective in the short and long-run is weak? • What is the economic cost of making these adaptations? 35 Adaptation Options (1) • Under climate change options for crop producers may include: • Increased area under pulse crops • Early seeding of crops • More forages to reduce wind erosion • Adoption of irrigation, where possible • Water management • For livestock producers, not many studies have been reported • Planting shelterbelts around area with livestock is commonly noted • Livestock grazing (rotational grazing) • Increased proportion of C4 grasses on pastures DRI Workshop February 2011 36 Long-term Cost of Adaptation • Adaptations are not without cost to the individuals and to society • Sometimes these costs are confined to the period to the extreme events • In other cases, these extend over a period of time • An extreme adaptation measure is human migration from one region to the other, which may have costs both to the region losing them (through Brain Drain) as well as to the receiving region (additional costs to be incurred) Presentation made to the Prairie Regional Adaptation 3/18/2013 Collaroborative (PRAC II) 37 Economic Cost of Droughts and Needed Improvements • Droughts can play a havoc with the economic system • The 2001-2002 droughts brought a number of adverse impacts on the Prairie economy • Total Canadian agricultural production loss was ~$3.6 billion • Gross Domestic Product fell ~$5.8 billion • Employment losses > 41,000 • Worst year was 2002 • Alberta and Saskatchewan were hit hardest Presentation made to the Prairie Regional Adaptation 3/18/2013 Collaroborative (PRAC II) 38 Economic cost of a drought • In fact, droughts are the most devastating natural disaster in Canada • Of the top 11 such events, droughts losses were noted for seven of them – more than half Most Expensive Canadian Natural Disasters (Total Estimated Economic Impact >=$1 billion 2000$) [Courtsy: Grace Koshida, Environment Canada] Date of Event Location Estimated occurrence Total Cost (billion 2000$) 2001-2002 Drought Prairies, Ontario, $5.8 Nova Scotia, PEI 1980 Drought $5.8 Freezing rain Ontario to New $5.4 Brunswick 1988 Drought Prairies $4.1 1979 Drought Prairies $3.4 1984 Drought Prairies $1.9 Flood Québec $1.6 May, 1950 Flood Manitoba $1.1 Hurricane Hazel Toronto & $1.1 Southern ON 1931-1938 Drought Prairies $1.0 1989 Drought Prairies $1.0 DRI Workshop February 2011 39 DRI Workshop February 2011 40 Caveat on Economic Cost of a drought • Typically drought (or any other natural disaster) impacts are done for the period of occurrence • This methodology has several limitations • Impacts are not limited to the drought period but spill over to following periods DRI Workshop February 2011 41 Cost of a Disaster – Total vs.
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