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Country Market Profile: Hong Kong Euromonitor Reports That Hong Country Market Profile: Hong Kong Euromonitor reports that Hong Kong's economy was already in a technical recession prior to the advent of the Covid 19 virus. Months of domestic civil unrest, a sharp economic downturn in China and spillovers from the trade war between China and the United States, are hampering the economy in 2019. Then in February 2020 an outbreak of the coronavirus hit Hong Kong and increased distrust of mainland China and put an already exhausted and nervous population on edge. Experts feel that the economy will continue into recession this year at the deepest rate since Asian financial crisis in 1997-1998, as the effects of domestic abatement measures and weaker growth in China will weigh on the economy. Toward the end of the year recession may reach nearly -4% in 2020 with the economy forecast to grow 3.5% in 2021. Hong Kong has largely phased out its manufacturing sector, relying instead on the service sector. In the medium term, large-scale infrastructure projects and a rise in real wages will drive domestic demand. The city has significant advantages for further development in industries such as medical services, education services, innovation and technology, testing and certification services and environmental industries. Hong Kong is one of the world's largest recipients of foreign direct investment (FDI). The total stock of inward direct investment is more than five times greater than Hong Kong's GDP. Mainland China alone accounts for nearly a third of this total. Hong Kong is also a key offshore capital-raising center for Chinese enterprises. Hong Kong, China has signed free trade agreements with Chile, New Zealand, and Australia, Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and European Free Trade Association (EFTA) and hopes to conclude an agreement with Taiwan. The city-state also hopes to join the Asian- China Free Trade Agreement. Population reached 7.5 million in 2019, up from 6.7 million in 2000. Most population gains are the result of immigration. The number entering the country soared in the 1990s but fell over the course of the next decade. More than four-fifths of all immigrants come from mainland China. The median age in 2018 was 44.6 years and is steadily rising. If present trends continue, the number of people aged 65 and over will account for almost third of the city’s population by 2030. The government faces increasing spending pressures as a result of population ageing. The labor force could peak in just the next year or two. To address this constraint, the government is implementing policies to boost labor force participation and improve the quality of the workforce. Additional programs to attract immigrants are also being introduced. USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) Agricultural Trade Office (ATO) in Hong Kong, hereinafter referred to as “Post” reports Hong Kong is now the 6th largest export market for U.S. consumer-oriented agricultural products by value; having been surpassed 1 by China in 2019. With a dynamic food culture, sophisticated and affluent buyers, and a world-class logistical infrastructure, Hong Kong is an attractive market for innovative U.S. food and beverage products as well as a gateway to the region. In addition to being a dynamic market, Hong Kong is also a trading hub where buyers make purchasing decisions for a vast range of consumer-oriented products that are transshipped to China and other parts of Asia. Most of Macau’s food imports are purchased, consolidated, and shipped via Hong Kong. Post advises that the U.S. has advantages and challenges in the Hong Kong food market. Advantages: • Hong Kong is one of the top markets in the world for food and beverages, processed, fresh, and frozen gourmet products • Hong Kong is a major trading hub where buyers make purchasing decisions for a vast range of consumer-oriented products that are transshipped to China and other parts of Asia • U.S. food products enjoy an excellent reputation among Hong Kong consumers, as they are renowned as high quality and safe • Hong Kong is a quality and trend-driven market, so price is not always the most important factor for food and beverage purchases Challenges: • Transportation time and costs, combined with U.S. products’ availability and seasonality (e.g. fresh produce) can make them less competitive than products available from regional suppliers such as China, Australia, and New Zealand • The importance of Hong Kong as a transshipment point and buying center for regional markets is not widely known to U.S. exporters • Strengthening U.S. dollar will make U.S. products less price competitive • Hong Kong labeling requirements and residue standards can impact trade U.S. exports of consumer-oriented products to Hong Kong reached US$2.8 billion in 2019, a massive decline of 25% from that of 2018. That number is over 96% of the agricultural total. Hong Kong has also dropped to the 10th largest export market from the U.S. for processed foods totaling US$899.2 million in 2019, a significant decrease of 17% from the prior year. Top U.S. exports of processed food products to Hong Kong in 2019 included: • Food Preparations • Prepared/Preserved Meats • Beer and Wine • Prepared/Preserved Seafood • Dog and Cat Food • Processed Vegetables and Pulses 2 • Snack Foods • Chocolate and Confectionery. Retail Sector Highlights: According to Euromonitor, retail sales in the packaged food market in Hong Kong reached US$7.5 billion in 2019. That represents a growth rate of 19.1% or US$1.2 billion since 2015. By the year 2024 the retail sales in the packaged food market in Hong Kong is expected to reach US$9.8 billion, a growth rate of 23.9% and nearly US$1.9 billion. High growth products in the forecast include: • Dairy products • Baked goods • Baby food • Savory snacks • Breakfast cereals • Soups • Sauces, dressings and condiments • Processed meat and seafood • Ice cream and frozen desserts Post reports that in 2018, Hong Kong’s retail food sector sales rose 4.2% to US$12.8 billion. The Hong Kong food retail market is made up of supermarkets, convenience stores, and traditional markets. Supermarkets account for nearly 56% of retail food sales. Major supermarkets include Wellcome, ParknShop, DCH Food Mart, U-Select, CitySuper, CR Vanguard, AEON, YATA, SOGO and APITA. Major convenience stores are 7-Eleven and Circle K. There are more than 800 supermarkets, 1,300 convenience stores and over 100 traditional markets in Hong Kong, making food shopping very convenient. Online food sales were US$167 million in 2018. This new form of shopping is expected to expand as rents rise, more product varieties become available on e-commerce platforms and consumer confidence and trust in online stores grows. Euromonitor reports that with intense protests in Hong Kong affecting local consumers’ weekend routines and their emotions, many consumers turned to grocery retailers for daily necessities in 2019, boosting demand for grocery products at supermarkets. Many Hong Kong consumers shop and dine out during the weekend and on bank holidays for leisure. However, because of the outbreak of the anti-extradition law amendment bill movement in Hong Kong in 2019, many shops and restaurants were closed at weekends, disrupting the normal routines of many consumers. Also, the protests brought a gloomy atmosphere to society, making shopping or dinning out difficult to enjoy for some consumers. Consequently, many consumers chose to stay at home during weekends and 3 public holidays and shopped for daily necessities from supermarkets, which resulted in increased demand for consumer goods through this channel in 2019. Many consumers went early to supermarkets during the weekends before the protests started in order to purchase fresh food or staples for preparing meals at home and avoid the disruption. This shift in consumer behavior and the resulting higher local consumption enabled supermarkets in Hong Kong to record decent value growth in 2019. According to Euromonitor economic uncertainty during the last year has caused consumers in Hong Kong to be more price-sensitive, bringing the concept of “supermarkets must be economical” back into consumers’ minds. The US-China trade war and the protests in Hong Kong contributed to ongoing economic uncertainty in 2019, followed by low consumer confidence. Against this backdrop, consumers have become more price-sensitive and cost-conscious. In order to address consumers’ changing sentiment, retailers have aggressively launched promotional campaigns, ranging from deep price cuts to product substitution. For example, AEON regularly hosts Super Day on which customers can shop for fresh food at all AEON stores with Super Day discounts every Wednesday. In some organic categories, some supermarkets have substituted premium products with more affordable options. With massive marketing efforts, supermarkets have successfully created the perception among the general public that “supermarkets are economical and always think for consumers”. This has had an impact on consumers’ purchasing process in that it has become more likely for customers to choose retailers they think of as more economical during the economic uncertainty. Despite the slight drop in its number of stores and its value share, Wellcome was able to maintain its position as the largest player in supermarkets in 2019. Wellcome’s stores have remained relatively stable amid economic uncertainty in Hong Kong. High accessibility and visibility to consumers have contributed to Wellcome’s lead. In addition to its extensive store network, it has also started installing in-store self-checkout machines which has helped Wellcome to consolidate its branding as the leading supermarket in Hong Kong. Over the forecast period, Wellcome is expected to be more proactive and aggressive in terms of upgrading its in-store digital infrastructure to further enhance consumers’ shopping experience.
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