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Trends, Challenges, and Opportunities

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Trends, Challenges, and Opportunities Newport News Trends, Challenges, and Opportunities City of Newport News Department of Planning August 2013 Newport News City Council McKinley L. Price, DDS, Mayor Herbert H. Bateman, Jr., Vice Mayor Robert S. Coleman Sharon P. Scott Tina L. Vick Joseph C. Whitaker Dr. Pat Woodbury James M. Bourey, City Manager Alan K. Archer, Assistant City Manager Cynthia D. Rohlf, Assistant City Manager Newport News City Planning Commission Victor Albea, Chairman Robert B. Jones, Vice-Chairman Lorraine P. Austin Michael F. Carpenter Dr. Saundra N. Cherry Cleon Long Mark W. Mulvaney H. Eugene Roberts Elizabeth W. Smith Department of Planning Edward A. Tombari, AICP, Senior Planner and Principal Author Sheila W. McAllister, AICP, Director of Planning Michael S. King, AICP, Manager of Comprehensive Planning Angela Y. Hopkins, Senior Planner Sandra K. Hitchens, Planning Technician 2 Table of Contents INTRODUCTION 5 POPULATION 5 COMMMUNITY FACILITIES 10 • Cultural and Entertainment Facilities 10 • Educational Facilities 12 • Health Care Facilities 16 • Parks and Recreation 17 • Public Safety 18 ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 23 • Federal Government Defense and Budget Policies 24 • Basic Sector Job Growth and Economic Globalization 25 • Attracting and Retaining a Globally Competitive Labor Force 26 ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION 28 • Sustainability 30 HOUSING 31 • Affordable Housing 32 • Current Housing Mix 32 • Current Housing Stock 33 LAND USE 38 • Infill Development and Redevelopment 38 • Slow Growth and Out Migration 39 • New Urbanism, Redevelopment and the Wise Use of Scarce Land Resources 39 • Neighborhoods and Gateways 39 • Reinvestment into Downtown 40 • Public-Private Partnerships 41 TRANSPORTATION 42 • Infrastructure Costs 42 • A Balanced Transportation System 44 URBAN DESIGN 46 • Historic Preservation 51 3 Tables, Charts and Maps TABLES TABLE 1 POPULATION GROWTH SINCE CONSOLIDATION 5 TABLE 2 POPULATION GROWTH TRENDS IN HAMPTON ROADS 6 TABLE 3 MEDIAN AGE AND IN HAMPTON ROADS 7 TABLE 4 POVERTY RATE IN HAMPTON ROADS 7 TABLE 5 HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATION RATES IN HAMPTON ROADS 13 TABLE 6 VIOLENT CRIME RATES IN HAMPTON ROADS 23 TABLE 7 UNEMPLOYMENT RATES IN HAMPTON ROADS 26 TABLE 8 PER CAPITA INCOME IN HAMPTON ROADS 26 TABLE 9 AGE OF HOUSING AND VACANCIES HAMPTON ROADS 33 TABLE 10 RENTER VS. HOMEOWNER IN HAMPTON ROADS 34 TABLE 11 CHANGE IN HOUSING VALUE IN HAMPTON ROADS 34 TABLE 12 HOUSING VALUE IN HAMPTON ROADS 37 TABLE 13 MEDIAN RENT IN HAMPTON ROADS 37 TABLE 14 COMMUTE TIMES TO WORK 42 TABLE 15 RESIDENCE OF THOSE EMPLOYED IN NEWPORT NEWS 43 TABLE 16 LOCATION OF EMPLOYMENT – NEWPORT NEWS RESIDENTS 43 CHARTS CHART 1 NEWPORT NEWS PUBLIC SCHOOL ENROLLMENT 14 CHART 2 EXPENDITURES PER STUDENT - SELECTED CITIES IN HAMPTON ROADS 14 CHART 3 VIOLENT CRIME INDEX 18 CHART 4 PROPERTY CRIME INDEX 18 CHART 5 VIOLENT CRIME BY POLICE PRECINCT 19 CHART 6 PROPERTY CRIME BY POLICE PRECINCT 19 CHART 7 WORKLOAD TYPE BY FIRE STATION 20 CHART 8 CIVILIAN VS. MILITARY EMPLOYMENT 1970 - 2010 25 MAPS MAP 1 MEDIAN FAMILY INCOME BY CENSUS TRACT 9 MAP 2 CALL VOLUMES BY FIRE DISTRICT AND REPORTING AREAS 21 MAP 3 RESPONSE TIMES BY FIRE DISTRICT AND REPORTING AREAS 22 MAP 4 AGE OF HOUSING - YEAR BUILT MAP 35 MAP 5 HOUSING STRUCTURE BY TYPE 36 4 INTRODUCTION In order to update the goals and strategies in the adopted Comprehensive Plan, the phys- ical, demographic, social and economic forces that could influence the city’s future must be considered. There are local, regional, national, and international trends that need to be identified to determine how city policy may be impacted in the future. The intent of this document is to provide a “snapshot” of the existing situation in Newport News. This will be accomplished using data, anecdotal examples and photographs, and to assess what chal- lenges the current conditions bring and also the many opportunities available to the city. This document is divided into sections that will roughly follow the sections of the proposed com- prehensive plan. The document is intended to allow for a smooth flow of information from the comprehensive plan development process into the eventual adopted plan. POPULATION TRENDS: Perhaps the two greatest trends found with the population of Newport News are that 1) it is slightly aging with the rest of the nation, although still relatively youthful, and 2) it is very slow growing. The large military presence and may account for the young population, the fact that much of the city is built out may also account for the slowing population growth. The 2010 Census revealed that Newport News grew by only 569 persons in 10 years. Although the city is challenging the Census count based on border discrepancies, the recount should only add a few hundred more residents. As seen in the table below, Newport News is the third slowest growing community in the Hampton Roads region. Two municipalities, Portsmouth and Hampton, are actually losing population. TABLE 1: POPULATION GROWTH* SINCE CONSOLIDATION 1960 113,662 ---- 1970 138,177 21.6% 1980 144,903 4.9% 1990 171,439 18.9% 2000 180,150 5.1% 2010 180,719 .3% 2012 (est.)* 181,027 .17% 2020 (extrapolation)** 182,255 .67% *Based on US Census Data ** Extrapolation is based on the growth rate between 2010 and 2012 remaining constant until 2020 and does not reflect a predicted 2020 population Based on recent census returns and estimates, growth rates from 2000 to 2020 will remain be- low 1% per decade, a dramatic slowdown from the latter part of last century. This reflects the fact that Newport News is a mature, built-out community. However, while all communities will be facing a slowly aging population, Newport News is actually one of the younger communi- ties in the Hampton Roads region (as demonstrated in Table 2). Part of this could be due not only to the military presence but also the growing presence of Christopher Newport University students living in the city. 5 TABLE 2: POPULATION GROWTH TRENDS IN HAMPTON ROADS City 2000 population 2010 population Population increase Suffolk 56,841 84,585 32.8% James City County 48,102 67,009 28.2% Isle of Wight 29,728 35,270 15.7% York County 56,297 65,464 14% Chesapeake 199,184 222,209 10.4% Norfolk 234,403 242,803 3.5% Virginia Beach 425,257 437,994 2.9% Newport News 180,150 180,719 .32% Portsmouth 100,565 95,535 -5.2% Hampton 146,437 137,436 -6.6% TOTAL 1,476,964 1,569,024 5.7% Source: U.S. Census It should also be noted that Newport News’s boundaries have grown dramatically over time due to the 1958 Consolidation of the former city of Newport News with the former city (for- merly County) of Warwick. However, it is estimated that the population within the pre-con- solidation boundaries of the old city of Newport News has experienced a 53% drop from the 1950 population of 42,358. Therefore, there are areas of the city that are experience the physical blight and decline associated with large scale population loss. The population data also indicates that Newport News has 13.8% of its population living below the federal poverty line, which is third in the Hampton Roads region, behind only Norfolk (19.4%) and Portsmouth (16.2%). This should indicate that more emphasis needs to be placed on human services, such as health services, that assist those with lower incomes, as well as education and transportation for those who may not have access to cars. Also, land use decisions and patterns can exacerbate poverty by isolating lower income groups in locations away from vital goods and services. Source: U.S. Census CHALLENGES: One of the greatest challenges that could face the city would be if the population began to decline and poverty levels remain at some of the highest in the region. Although the city has very little vacant land for new development, redevelopment of several infill sites will lead to the construction of new housing in the next ten years. These developments include the Hun- tington Pointe and Camp Morrison sites. New, upscale, single-family home communities are needed to bring in additional middle and upper income households into the city. Downtown redevelopment, such as the Apprentice School Mixed-Use development will also contribute to population growth. Due to this type of redevelopment, we do not anticipate population decline in the next ten years. However, if new construction of units does not keep pace with declining household sizes and demolition of existing housing in the older areas of the city, a decline in population is a real possibility. It is imperative Newport News not enter into a downward spiral that many communities with declining populations and higher poverty levels experience. Cities with higher levels of pov- erty and declining tax base tend to have aging infrastructure which are costly to maintain, but at the same time translates into declining sources of revenue. 6 As a city struggles financially, levels of service decrease and the population declines further, resulting in incremental increases in poverty levels and the cycle becomes further intensified. This is a paradigm that is common in older industrial cities. In a regional comparison in Hampton Roads, Newport News, Portsmouth, Hampton and Norfolk all share similar characteristics of being older cities, with little developable land re- maining and a very slow growth or slightly declining population Norfolk has higher poverty levels than Newport News, but also has a slightly higher population growth rate, possibly due to major downtown redevelopment (e.g. condominium development in the downtown and Ghent neighborhoods). Hampton has a slightly declining population, but has a lower poverty rate than Newport News. Portsmouth has a higher poverty rate than Newport News and a declining population, but has also invested recently (e.g.
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