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Climate Change Assessment Rural Roads and Access Project (RRP MYA 50218) CLIMATE CHANGE ASSESSMENT I. BASIC PROJECT INFORMATION Project RURAL ROADS AND ACCESS PROJECT Title: Project Cost 52.41 ($ million): Location: Myanmar (several locations) Sector: Transport Theme: Road transport (non-urban) Brief The Government of Myanmar has requested ADB to help finance the National Rural Description: Road and Access Program, which aims to connect 80% of registered villages by all- weather roads by 2030. ADB will support the government’s program through a series of investment projects. This first project aims to improve disaster resilient road access for rural people in Ayeyarwady and Magway regions. The townships were selected based on a ranking of poverty and access conditions in each region. Candidate projects were ranked in accordance with the population, number of villages connected, and cost- effectiveness factors, giving additional priority to unsealed roads, which are more likely to not be passable during the rainy season, and those roads that provide access to services (schools, medical centers and markets). The townships are prone to flood risks, the impact of which will only increase with change in hazard patterns due to climate change and impact the longer-term sustainability of the roads. Thus, it is critical that the project outputs factor current and future flood risk considerations, including elevated embankments and carefully planned and designed drainage structures. The project has three outputs: Output 1: Climate Resilient Roads Rehabilitated. The proposed project will upgrade about 152 kilometer (km) of existing unsealed roads or tracks in Ayeyarwady and Magway Regions to paved standard. The road widths will be ranging about 2.6 meters (m) to 3.0m, to avoid any potential resettlement impacts. To increase resilience, the roads will be raised above frequently-occurring flood levels and considering future climate change impacts. Output 2: Rural Road Maintenance Management Improved. The project will develop simple inventories of the rural road network starting from the project roads. The inventories will cover data on geographical location, length, cross section, historical maintenance records, future maintenance plans, budgetary requirements, evaluations etc., with respect to routine and periodic maintenance. The inventories will also include photographic descriptions of key structures. The project will help improve delivery of emergency maintenance works, including by assessing the disaster vulnerability of the rural road network in the flood-prone Ayeyarwady Region, by creating or gathering disaster damage inventory, flood hazard maps, and climate change impacts, and integrating them in the CRRN database. Output 3: Rural Road Safety Improved. To mitigate against the risks associated with increased speeds of motorized vehicles following road improvements, the project will introduce a community-based road safety program. While essential road safety engineering elements will be included in the detailed design, given that majority of crashes are due to road user behavior, this proposed program will focus on road user education and enforcement. 2 II. SUMMARY OF CLIMATE CHANGE FINANCE Project Financing Climate Finance Adaptation Amount 1 Mitigation Source ($ million) ($ million) ($ million) Asian Development Bank Ordinary capital resources (regular loan) 45.40 26.20 Special Funds resources (ADF grant) 5.80 5.80 Cofinancing The Government 1.21 ADF = Asian Development Fund Source: Asian Development Bank III. SUMMARY OF CLIMATE RISK SCREENING AND ASSESSMENT A. Sensitivity of Project Component(s) to Climate/Weather Conditions and the Sea Level 1. Current climate/disaster related risks: The INFORM 2019 risk index ranks Myanmar as one of the most at-risk countries in the world (14th out of 191). This risk is driven both by high exposure to natural hazards, but also by social vulnerability, a lack of coping capacity, and other drivers such as internal conflict (Table 1). The INFORM 2019 risk index ranks Myanmar as having the third highest flood exposure risk in the world, as well high tropical cyclone exposure (ranked 24th). OVERALL LACK OF INFORM TROPICAL COPING RISK Flood CYCLONE DROUGHT VULNERABILITY CAPACITY LEVEL RANK (0-10) (0-10) (0-10) (0-10) (0-10) (0-10) (1-191) 9.9 [4.5] 5.6 [1.7] 1.0 [3.2] 5.3 [3.6] 6.3 [4.5] 6.6 [3.8] 14 Table 1: INFORM 2019 Index for Myanmar. For the sub-categories of risk higher scores represent greater risks. Conversely the most at-risk country is ranked 1st. Global average scores are shown in brackets. Data from 2000-2018 show that Myanmar suffers particularly from impacts of floods, landslides, cyclones, and earthquakes.2 Myanmar’s macroeconomic performance is influenced by the high frequency of disasters because all key sectors are vulnerable to natural hazards. The country’s 10-year moving average of disaster losses for period 2005-2014 was estimated at $4.7 billion for the period 2005-2014.3 Myanmar experiences a tropical-monsoon climate with three dominant seasons, summer, rainy and winter season. Summer season prevails from the end of February to beginning of May with highest temperatures during March and April. From November to end February is winter season with temperature in hilly areas of over 3,000 feet dropping to below 0°C with average temperature across the country of 10 to 18°C. The hot and winter seasons bring little rainfall. The southwest monsoon (rainy season) prevails from mid-May to the end of October, the season when Myanmar receives most of its rainfall. The Southwest Monsoon has 4 stages, the pre 1 In this project there is no separate measure adopted to address climate adaptation and disaster resiliency respectively. 2 D. Guha-Sapir, R. Below, and Ph. Hoyois - EM-DAT: The CRED/OFDA International Disaster Database – www.emdat.be. Université Catholique de Louvain, Brussels. 3 United Nations. 2015. Global Assessment Report 2015 Data. Geneva. 3 monsoon (mid-April to start onset date), early monsoon (June), mid or peak monsoon (July, August), late monsoon (September to withdrawal date) and post monsoon (October, November). The southwest monsoon sets in initially in lower Myanmar about the third week of May, extending gradually northwards and is usually established over the whole country by about the first week of June. The highest annual precipitation is observed in the Rakhine Coastal Region, followed by the Ayeyarwady Delta in the wet season. The Ayeyarwaddy Delta receives a total monthly average of 2,772mm as measured in Pathein, 2,392 in Yangon and 2,261mm in Tharrawaddy. In the past (before 2000), cyclones made landfall (i.e. center of the storm moved across the coast) along Myanmar‘s coast once every 3 years. Since the turn of the century, cyclones have made landfall along Myanmar’s coastline every year. From 1887 to 2005, 1,248 tropical storms formed in the Bay of Bengal. Eighty of these storms (6.4% of the total) reached Myanmar’s coastline. Recent cyclones of note include Cyclone Mala (2006), Nargis (2008) and Giri (2010). Cyclone Nargis hit the coast in May 2008 and was the most devastating cyclone on record that Myanmar has ever experienced. The Ayeyarwady Delta and the eastern part of Yangon were most affected experiencing wind speeds >258km/h. The main impacts included: i) extensive damage to mangroves, agricultural land, houses and utility infrastructures; ii) salt- water intrusion into agricultural lands and freshwater sources causing economic, social and environmental damage; iii) loss of livelihoods and homes (3.2 million people affected), including 138,373 deaths; and iv) damages of $4.1 billion. Cyclone Giri hit the coast in October 2010 resulting in a maximum storm surge of approximately 3.7m and wind speeds in excess of 120km/h. The Cyclone caused damage and loss of government buildings, households, schools and farm assets. The death toll was significantly less than that of Cyclone Nargis (45 people). However, the cyclone resulted in 70,000 people left without homes. Myanmar’s long coastline and extensive river systems make the country highly prone to floods. The monsoon season and the passage of cyclones often bring torrential rains that lead to flooding. In July and August 2015, widespread flooding occurred due to unprecedented levels of rainfall and river discharge rates that inundated 2.9 million ha of cultivated area and displaced 1.6 million people.4 Damage and loss to the transport sector as a consequence of the 2015 floods was estimated at $68.5 million due to flooded pavements, failure or blockage of road formations in mountainous regions, damage to railway embankments, and the destruction of bridges and culverts. Heavy flooding in a smaller timespan has also been observed due to the shorter but more intense monsoon season in recent decades.5 4 Government of the Union of Myanmar. 2015. Post- Disaster Needs Assessment of Floods and Landslides. Nay Pyi Taw. 5 Center for Excellence in Disaster Management and Humanitarian Assistance. 2014. Burma (Myanmar) Disaster Management Reference Handbook. Hickam. 4 Figure 1: (a) Annual average rainfall in Myanmar (b) annual average temperature in Myanmar (First National Communication to the UNFCCC) The Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH) is the national agency responsible for providing weather services and have started hydrological services since 1964. DMH has a network of 70 hydrological stations along major rivers and it is currently in the process of a major modernization program. While flooding is common in Myanmar, widespread/riverine floods occur along large and medium rivers due to heavy rainfall in the upstream areas and flash flood along small rivers, streams in mountainous regions and tributaries of large rivers during southwest Monsoon period (June – October) during monsoon period. Severe riverine floods occurred along major rivers during 1974, 1997, 2004, 2015, 2016. Due to limitations in observation of water level, there is no comprehensive record of flooding across different parts of the country.
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