Rural Roads and Access Project (RRP MYA 50218)

CLIMATE CHANGE ASSESSMENT

I. BASIC PROJECT INFORMATION

Project RURAL ROADS AND ACCESS PROJECT Title: Project Cost 52.41 ($ million): Location: Myanmar (several locations) Sector: Transport Theme: Road transport (non-urban) Brief The Government of Myanmar has requested ADB to help finance the National Rural Description: Road and Access Program, which aims to connect 80% of registered villages by all- weather roads by 2030. ADB will support the government’s program through a series of investment projects.

This first project aims to improve disaster resilient road access for rural people in Ayeyarwady and Magway regions. The townships were selected based on a ranking of poverty and access conditions in each region. Candidate projects were ranked in accordance with the population, number of villages connected, and cost- effectiveness factors, giving additional priority to unsealed roads, which are more likely to not be passable during the rainy season, and those roads that provide access to services (schools, medical centers and markets). The townships are prone to flood risks, the impact of which will only increase with change in hazard patterns due to climate change and impact the longer-term sustainability of the roads. Thus, it is critical that the project outputs factor current and future flood risk considerations, including elevated embankments and carefully planned and designed drainage structures. The project has three outputs:

Output 1: Climate Resilient Roads Rehabilitated. The proposed project will upgrade about 152 kilometer (km) of existing unsealed roads or tracks in Ayeyarwady and Magway Regions to paved standard. The road widths will be ranging about 2.6 meters (m) to 3.0m, to avoid any potential resettlement impacts. To increase resilience, the roads will be raised above frequently-occurring flood levels and considering future climate change impacts.

Output 2: Rural Road Maintenance Management Improved. The project will develop simple inventories of the rural road network starting from the project roads. The inventories will cover data on geographical location, length, cross section, historical maintenance records, future maintenance plans, budgetary requirements, evaluations etc., with respect to routine and periodic maintenance. The inventories will also include photographic descriptions of key structures. The project will help improve delivery of emergency maintenance works, including by assessing the disaster vulnerability of the rural road network in the flood-prone Ayeyarwady Region, by creating or gathering disaster damage inventory, flood hazard maps, and climate change impacts, and integrating them in the CRRN database.

Output 3: Rural Road Safety Improved. To mitigate against the risks associated with increased speeds of motorized vehicles following road improvements, the project will introduce a community-based road safety program. While essential road safety engineering elements will be included in the detailed design, given that majority of crashes are due to road user behavior, this proposed program will focus on road user education and enforcement.

2 II. SUMMARY OF CLIMATE CHANGE FINANCE

Project Financing Climate Finance Adaptation Amount 1 Mitigation Source ($ million) ($ million) ($ million) Asian Development Bank Ordinary capital resources (regular loan) 45.40 26.20 Special Funds resources (ADF grant) 5.80 5.80 Cofinancing The Government 1.21 ADF = Asian Development Fund Source: Asian Development Bank

III. SUMMARY OF CLIMATE RISK SCREENING AND ASSESSMENT

A. Sensitivity of Project Component(s) to Climate/Weather Conditions and the Sea Level

1. Current climate/disaster related risks: The INFORM 2019 risk index ranks Myanmar as one of the most at-risk countries in the world (14th out of 191). This risk is driven both by high exposure to natural hazards, but also by social vulnerability, a lack of coping capacity, and other drivers such as internal conflict (Table 1). The INFORM 2019 risk index ranks Myanmar as having the third highest flood exposure risk in the world, as well high tropical cyclone exposure (ranked 24th).

OVERALL LACK OF INFORM TROPICAL COPING RISK Flood CYCLONE DROUGHT VULNERABILITY CAPACITY LEVEL RANK (0-10) (0-10) (0-10) (0-10) (0-10) (0-10) (1-191) 9.9 [4.5] 5.6 [1.7] 1.0 [3.2] 5.3 [3.6] 6.3 [4.5] 6.6 [3.8] 14 Table 1: INFORM 2019 Index for Myanmar. For the sub-categories of risk higher scores represent greater risks. Conversely the most at-risk country is ranked 1st. Global average scores are shown in brackets.

Data from 2000-2018 show that Myanmar suffers particularly from impacts of floods, landslides, cyclones, and earthquakes.2 Myanmar’s macroeconomic performance is influenced by the high frequency of disasters because all key sectors are vulnerable to natural hazards. The country’s 10-year moving average of disaster losses for period 2005-2014 was estimated at $4.7 billion for the period 2005-2014.3

Myanmar experiences a tropical-monsoon climate with three dominant seasons, summer, rainy and winter season. Summer season prevails from the end of February to beginning of May with highest temperatures during March and April. From November to end February is winter season with temperature in hilly areas of over 3,000 feet dropping to below 0°C with average temperature across the country of 10 to 18°C. The hot and winter seasons bring little rainfall.

The southwest monsoon (rainy season) prevails from mid-May to the end of October, the season when Myanmar receives most of its rainfall. The Southwest Monsoon has 4 stages, the pre

1 In this project there is no separate measure adopted to address climate adaptation and disaster resiliency respectively. 2 D. Guha-Sapir, R. Below, and Ph. Hoyois - EM-DAT: The CRED/OFDA International Disaster Database – www.emdat.be. Université Catholique de Louvain, Brussels. 3 United Nations. 2015. Global Assessment Report 2015 Data. Geneva. 3 monsoon (mid-April to start onset date), early monsoon (June), mid or peak monsoon (July, August), late monsoon (September to withdrawal date) and post monsoon (October, November). The southwest monsoon sets in initially in lower Myanmar about the third week of May, extending gradually northwards and is usually established over the whole country by about the first week of June. The highest annual precipitation is observed in the Rakhine Coastal Region, followed by the Ayeyarwady Delta in the wet season. The Ayeyarwaddy Delta receives a total monthly average of 2,772mm as measured in Pathein, 2,392 in Yangon and 2,261mm in Tharrawaddy.

In the past (before 2000), cyclones made landfall (i.e. center of the storm moved across the coast) along Myanmar‘s coast once every 3 years. Since the turn of the century, cyclones have made landfall along Myanmar’s coastline every year. From 1887 to 2005, 1,248 tropical storms formed in the Bay of Bengal. Eighty of these storms (6.4% of the total) reached Myanmar’s coastline. Recent cyclones of note include Cyclone Mala (2006), Nargis (2008) and Giri (2010). Cyclone Nargis hit the coast in May 2008 and was the most devastating cyclone on record that Myanmar has ever experienced. The Ayeyarwady Delta and the eastern part of Yangon were most affected experiencing wind speeds >258km/h. The main impacts included: i) extensive damage to mangroves, agricultural land, houses and utility infrastructures; ii) salt- water intrusion into agricultural lands and freshwater sources causing economic, social and environmental damage; iii) loss of livelihoods and homes (3.2 million people affected), including 138,373 deaths; and iv) damages of $4.1 billion. Cyclone Giri hit the coast in October 2010 resulting in a maximum storm surge of approximately 3.7m and wind speeds in excess of 120km/h. The Cyclone caused damage and loss of government buildings, households, schools and farm assets. The death toll was significantly less than that of Cyclone Nargis (45 people). However, the cyclone resulted in 70,000 people left without homes.

Myanmar’s long coastline and extensive river systems make the country highly prone to floods. The monsoon season and the passage of cyclones often bring torrential rains that lead to flooding. In July and August 2015, widespread flooding occurred due to unprecedented levels of rainfall and river discharge rates that inundated 2.9 million ha of cultivated area and displaced 1.6 million people.4 Damage and loss to the transport sector as a consequence of the 2015 floods was estimated at $68.5 million due to flooded pavements, failure or blockage of road formations in mountainous regions, damage to railway embankments, and the destruction of bridges and culverts. Heavy flooding in a smaller timespan has also been observed due to the shorter but more intense monsoon season in recent decades.5

4 Government of the Union of Myanmar. 2015. Post- Disaster Needs Assessment of Floods and Landslides. Nay Pyi Taw. 5 Center for Excellence in Disaster Management and Humanitarian Assistance. 2014. Burma (Myanmar) Disaster Management Reference Handbook. Hickam. 4

Figure 1: (a) Annual average rainfall in Myanmar (b) annual average temperature in Myanmar (First National Communication to the UNFCCC)

The Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH) is the national agency responsible for providing weather services and have started hydrological services since 1964. DMH has a network of 70 hydrological stations along major rivers and it is currently in the process of a major modernization program. While flooding is common in Myanmar, widespread/riverine floods occur along large and medium rivers due to heavy rainfall in the upstream areas and flash flood along small rivers, streams in mountainous regions and tributaries of large rivers during southwest Monsoon period (June – October) during monsoon period. Severe riverine floods occurred along major rivers during 1974, 1997, 2004, 2015, 2016. Due to limitations in observation of water level, there is no comprehensive record of flooding across different parts of the country. According to historical records and analysis, flood frequency varies significantly across different parts of the country and river systems. Figure 2 shows the occurrence of flood events during various months along different location along Ayeyarwady river. Minbu station along Ayeyarwady river serves as the reference station for Magway6 and Henzada along downstream for Ayeyarwady Region.7 From the flood frequency analysis it is observed that highest frequency has been observed in Henzada (58 times during 32 years of observation) followed by Nyang Oo and Minbu (44 times during 29 years of observation).

6 Natmauk and Myothit Townships are located along Yin River originating from the mountains in Central Myanmar and passes south of Natmauk and Myothit flowing into Ayeyarwady below Magway. 7 Pantanaw and Maubin Townships are located along Ayeyarwady River below Henzada stations. 5

Figure 2: Occurrence of Flood Percentages in Mnoths and Fllod Frequency along Ayeyarwady Rivier

Currently there is very limited data records on impacts of floods in the country. Review of disaster damage data portal hosted by Department of Disaster Management,8 reveals that floods affecting Natmauk (2015 and 2018), Myothit (2015, 2016 and 2017), and Pantanaw and Maubin (2012, 2015, 2016). As part of ADB technical assistance,9 flood hazard modeling for riverine and coastal flooding (due to cyclone associated storm surge) is currently undertaken at national scale. Preliminary results of 1 in 20-year flood hazard modeling shows the extent and depth of floods for the 4 townships and 1 in 20-year coastal flooding for Pantanaw and Maubin. Rural roads have been overlaid for Pantanaw and Maubin. Below maps (Figure 3-8) shows the extent and depth of floods along the rivers and it does not take into account of pluvial (surface) floods due to rainfall.

8 http://www.mdld-rrd.gov.mm/DesInventar/main.jsp?countrycode=mmr. 9 ADB. Myanmar. Strengthening Climate and Disaster Resilience of Myanmar Communities. 6

Figure 3: River-Flood Hazard Map – Natmauk Township

Figure 4: River-Flood Hazard Map – Myothit Township

7

Figure 5: River-Flood Hazard Map – Pantanaw Township

Figure 6: Coastal-Flood Hazard Map – Pantanaw Township

8

Figure 7: River-Flood Hazard Map – Maubin Township

Figure 8: Coastal-Flood Hazard Map – Maubin Township

9 2. Future climate related risks: Possible changes in climate in RRAP areas include increase in sea level rise and rainfall intensity leading to increased flood risks. While conditions of sensitivity vary across different RRAP areas, typically rural roads are highly sensitive to risks from flooding. This will affect the design calculation for run-off for road drainage and culverts. Other potential impacts of climate changes that may be of relevance to the design of rural roads are changes in temperature (temperature influences evaporation rates from organic surfaces and hence initial water retention capacity), and changes in mean rainfall (which also affects the initial water retention capacity of pervious surfaces). Both aspects could therefore lead to a shift between the fast and slow run-off components of a run-off model.

Run-off (for drainage/culvert design) determination is based on estimates of the amount of rainfall that will drain from a given catchment within a given period. Usually, historical records of observed rainfall are used to determine the ARI in years for maximum rainfall. This rainfall is then translated into run-off using catchment-specific models to determine maximum flows and design criteria for the road drainage system.

Climate change is expected to affect these design calculations in a number of ways, through increasing the intensity and frequency of heavy rainfall events, and through changing the antecedent moisture loading of soils and the average water contained in storage ponds. The most significant change is expected to come from a general increase in the maximum rainfall associated with heavy rainfall events. The reason for this change is that a warmer atmosphere can generally hold more water, so that more water is available during any particular rainfall event. As a first approximation, the increased amount of rainfall over a typical 24-hour heavy rain event is scaled in proportion to the increase in temperature. The expected change of the absolute rainfall depth in design storms can be incorporated into standard design calculations and subsequent run-off modelling.

Climate change may also result in changes in temperature (temperature influences evaporation rates from organic surfaces and hence initial water retention capacity), and changes in mean rainfall (which also affects the initial water retention capacity of pervious surfaces). Both aspects could therefore lead to a shift between the fast and slow run-off components of a run-off model.

The middle range projections of sea level rise above the 2000-2004 base period level in Myanmar is projected at 5 to 13cm in the 2020s, 20cm to 41cm in the 2050s and by 2080s 37cm to 83cm, with 122cm as the highest range of projection for this period. It is predicted that the delta region will be prone to impacts of climate change aggravated by the rising sea level. The combined effects of sea level rise and increased rainfall intensity will increase the flooding hazards in the delta. This risk has been recognized and as part of resiliency measure the sub-project roads will be elevated above the frequent flood levels.

The delta region is prone to impacts of climate change aggravated by the rising sea level. The delta constantly experiences flooding, and the 2008 flooding associated with Cyclone Nargis is considered to be the worst event recorded to date. The combined effects of sea level rise and increased rainfall intensity will increase the hazards of flooding in the delta. This risk has been recognized and as part of resiliency measure the sub-project roads will be elevated above the frequent flood levels.

The World Resources Institute’s AQUEDUCT Global Flood Analyzer can be used to establish a baseline level of river flood exposure. As of 2010, assuming protection for up to a 1-in-10 year event, the population annually affected by river flooding in Myanmar is estimated at 389,000 and expected annual impact on GDP is estimated at $578 million. The UNISDR estimate of average annual losses captures all types of flooding (including river, flash, and coastal) and makes a 10 notably higher estimate of around $2.0 billion per year.10 Development and climate change are both likely to increase these figures. The climate change component can be isolated and by 2030 is expected to increase the annually affected population by 322,000 people, and the GDP impact of river flood by $1.0 billion under the RCP8.5 emissions pathway (AQUEDUCT Scenario B).11 In this context the annual impact on GDP would grow from around 1% to almost 3%.

Work by Paltan et al. (2018) demonstrates that even under lower emissions pathways coherent with the Paris Climate Agreement almost all Asian countries face an increase in the frequency of extreme river flows. What would historically have been a 1-in-100 year flow, will become a 1-in- 50 year or 1-in-25 year event in most of South, Southeast, and East Asia. There is good agreement among models on this trend. Willner et al. suggest the resulting increase in intensity of extreme river flood events in Myanmar will increase the size of the population affected by an extreme flood by 430,000-510,000 people by 2035-2044 (Table 2).

Estimate Population Exposed Population Exposed Increase in to Extreme Flood to Extreme Flood Affected (1971-2004) (2035-2044) Population 16.7 Percentile 6,515,254 7,029,501 514,247 Median 6,795,781 7,248,857 453,076 83.3 Percentile 7,138,290 7,569,040 430,750 Table 2: Estimated number of people in Myanmar affected by an extreme river flood (extreme flood is defined as being in the 90th percentile in terms of numbers of people affected) in the historic period 1971-2004 and the future period 2035-2044. Figures represent an average of all four RCPs and assume present day population distributions (Willner et al., 2018)

B. Climate Risk Screening

2. Figure 9 shows the results of initial screening using AWARE tool with overall climate risk classification being medium/high.

Figure 9: Results of AWARE screening

Ayeyarwady Region (1)

10 UNISDR (2014) PreventionWeb: Basic country statistics and indicators. Available at: https://www.preventionweb.net/countries [accessed 14/08/2018] 11 WRI (2018) AQUEDUCT Global Flood Analyzer. Available at: https://floods.wri.org/# [Accessed: 22/11/2018] 11

Ayeyarwady Region (2)

Magway Region

C. Climate Risk and Adaptation Assessment

Implications of climate change- overview: As outlined in the Myanmar Climate Change Strategy (2016-2030), due to its exposure and sensitivity to current and projected weather patterns, Myanmar is extremely vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. In the past 20 years (1995–2014), it has been exposed to 41 extreme weather events resulting in a death toll of 7,146 (annual average) inhabitants and an annual average of 0.74% loss per unit in GDP – making it the second-most affected country to extreme weather events (Kreft et al. 2016).

The observed and projected changes in climate include a general increase in temperature, variation in rainfall and an increased occurrence and severity of extreme weather events such as cyclones, floods, droughts, intense rains and extreme high temperatures. The country is also experiencing a decrease in the duration of the southwest monsoon season due to its late onset and early retreat (NAPA 2013).

Current patterns of socioeconomic development rely on climate-sensitive sectors and regions. Agriculture contributes to 23.3% of GDP and employing to 51.3% of the labor force (ADB 2018; FAO 2016). An increase in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events has caused a decline in agricultural productivity, which has resulted in a decrease in GDP and household income and rising food insecurity (MOAI 2015). Myanmar’s population and economic activities 12 are concentrated in disaster risk-prone areas such as the Delta, Coastal and Central Dry Zones, which are highly exposed to hazards and have both high poverty levels and low response capacity. Coastal regions are particularly at risk from sea level rise and cyclones, while the lowlands and Central Dry Zone are vulnerable to the impacts of floods and droughts, respectively. Communities and businesses located in at-risk regions and reliant on climate-sensitive economic activities are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change (NAPA 2013; IPCC 2014).

As reported in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) models included in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), key projected climate trends are: - Mean annual precipitation will rise by 103.9mm in 2050 (RCP 8.5, High Emission) - Mean annual temperature is projected to increase by 0.4-0.7°C by 2020 and 0.8-1.4°C by 2050; - Mean annual temperatures are set to increase by of 2.8°C to 3.5°C across Myanmar with the highest increases in the Rakhine Coastal and Yangon Deltaic regions (3.5°C) by 2100; - Climate change predictions for annual rainfall in 2100 indicate increases in annual average of ~228 mm per annum relative to the baseline modelled annual average rainfall; - Mean annual temperature will rise by 1.9°C in 2050 (RCP 8.5, High Emission); - Myanmar is projected to have an increase in rainfall by 2050.

Figure 10: Predicted rainfall trends for the seven physiographic regions in Myanmar

Climate Change Projections for RRAP roads: For the design life time horizon of the RRAP roads, there would appear to be small change in predicted annual rainfall. However, a conservative approach is recommended as predictive models have, historically, often underestimated change. The annual graph does not take into account increased seasonality and intensity of rainfall. Traditionally, for rural roads, it is often recommended that drainage design considers an ARI of about 10 years but taking account of the forecast climate change impacts and, assuming a design life for the road of 20 years, the historically determined 20-yr ARI rainfall storm data have been adopted for the drainage designs under RRAP.

Of the above predictions, the increased frequency of storms, the increased spatial variability and increased intensity of the rainfall are aspects having the most impact on road drainage and must be taken into consideration in preparing climate resilient designs. With many of the catchments in RRAP northern townships of Natmauk and Myothit being small rural watersheds, the impacts of the short duration storms of high intensity rainfalls may be significant. These will result in increased rapid run-off often carrying debris (vegetation). Adjustments recommended include:

- Increased design capacity of culverts i.e. the maximum culvert size of 1.0 mx 1.0 m is recommended instead of 0.6 or 0.8 m width or pipe diameters used traditionally; 13 - Closer spacing of cross-drainage structures than traditionally used (especially for the roads with more erodible soils); - Improved road side drainage with lining installed at lesser slopes than traditionally used increased design capacity of bridges to allow for increased flows as well as passage of debris (trees).

The southern townships of Pantanaw and Maubin are located within the Ayeyarwady Delta area Therefore, water levels adjacent to the road may often be controlled by regional water levels associated with the Ayeyarwady River rather than locally produce runoff. It should also be noted that this area is in the cyclone zone. Based on cost, it is unlikely that any road in the southern townships can be protected from surges of several meters. However, a strategy of “living with floods” is perhaps a better approach and is used elsewhere in areas suffering from regular inundation such as in the Mekong Delta. In this approach roads are designed to be resilient to inundation and can be brought rapidly back into use after inundation subsides without any lasting damage. This approach depends on good construction of embankments and adequate relief culverts to allow excess water to drain away quickly.

The middle range projections of sea level rise above the 2000-2004 base period level in Myanmar is projected at 5 to 13 cm in the 2020s, 20 cm to 41 cm in the 2050s and by 2080s 37 cm to 83 cm, with 122 cm as the highest range of projection for this period. It is predicted that the delta region will be prone to impacts of climate change aggravated by the rising sea level. The combined effects of sea level rise and increased rainfall intensity will increase the flooding hazards in the delta. This risk has been recognized and as part of resiliency measure the sub- project roads will be elevated above the frequent flood levels.

Hydrological and hydraulic design: A hydrological survey of the pre-screened and selected project roads was carried out. A particular concern in the design of the project roads and drainage structures is the risk of flooding and embankment erosion, particularly in Ayeyarwady Region. Many rural roads are situated in vulnerable locations and care must be taken in the design of the drainage structures and embankment heights. The two regions were surveyed: Magway with roads in Natmauk and Myothit townships and; Ayeyarwady with roads in Pantanaw and Maubin townships each region had quite distinct drainage characteristics.

Magway Region: In Magway Region the drainage crossing were required for local rivers as well as local culvert crossings for agricultural delivery and return drainage. Crossing opening are determined by local flood conditions. For the river crossings at bridges and larger culverts, opening sizes have been estimated using a slope/catchment area/rainfall intensity-duration- frequency relationship for design storms to estimate flood discharges. For smaller culvert openings which are in the majority of the crossings and are often for agricultural purposes, it is not generally possible to measure the catchment areas to determine flood discharges. The recommendations at these crossings is for openings at least as big as existing crossings with a minimum size to allow clearance of debris. Box culverts of 1m x 1m cross sections are recommended as minimum. Should pipe culverts be installed at any location then a minimum diameter of 1m is recommended. The minimum size is to facilitate the clearance of silt and debris that may build up in culverts. Smaller cross - sections than this are often impossible to clear once blocked due to restricted access. On wider crossing where no bridge exists and flood flows are of relatively brief duration, Irish Bridge crossings (also known as vented weirs or drifts) may be the preferred solution.

Ayeyarwady Region: In Ayeyarwady Pantanaw and Maubin the flow regime in the vicinity of all the roads is dominated by the large regional flows in the adjacent Ayeyarwadi River and its complex associated distributaries. Under this regime discharges through culverts and bridges cannot be determined using the slope/catchment area/IDF approach that was appropriate for the northern Natmauk and Myothit townships. Many of the crossings associated with the RRAP road 14 in Pantanaw and Myothit reverse their flow as the flood plain recharges and discharges seasonally according to the level of flow of the Ayeyarwadi River. In the southern townships design is largely based on improvement of crossings using existing crossing openings as a template size for new crossings unless location information suggests that the crossing is too low. However, the RRAP roads in Ayeyarwady are generally of adequate elevation as flooding of land adjacent to either side of the roads occurs most years and roads are mostly already elevated on embankments to avoid annual flood levels. A minimum size crossing recommendation is for openings at least as big as existing crossings with a minimum size to allow clearance of debris of 1m x 1m for box culverts is recommended.

Disaster risk reduction and adaptation features: In order to determine appropriate embankment heights and drainage structures for the selected roads a four-stage approach was adopted:

1. A preliminary survey of all roads and collection of information from local residents during the preliminary engineering surveys, including high flood level, frequency, and most recent event at each drainage structure. This was carried out prior to mobilization of the hydrologists and formed the basis of the structure inventory for inclusion in the hydrological survey; 2. A preliminary hydrological desk study by the hydrologist and analysis of mapping and data for the project areas; 3. Detailed field inspections and investigations by the international and local hydrologists shortly after the rainy season to observe recent flood conditions, including further discussions with local residents and local DRRD staff; 4. Hydrological analysis of candidate roads based on consolidated information to indicate design levels for roads especially where elevated embankments are required, together with location, size and levels of important drainage structures. Focus was primarily on obviously damaged or undersized existing structures and, on less developed roads, new structures to be constructed. Existing structures in good condition were also noted.

This approach ensured that due consideration was given to the scale and type of flooding experienced and took into account the needs of the local communities. The type and size of each drainage structure was determined based on the field survey by the hydrologist, with reference to local ground conditions and the hydrology of each site.

Considering the above risks, the following range of adaptation activities – referred to as climate and disaster resilience measures - are identified:

Output 1: Climate Resilient Roads Rehabilitate. The proposed project will upgrade about 150 km of existing unsealed roads or tracks in Ayeyarwady and Magway Regions to paved standard. The road widths will be ranging about 2.6 m to 3.0 m, to avoid any potential resettlement impacts. To increase resilience, the roads will be raised above frequently-occurring flood levels, and considering future climate change impacts. Pavement surfacing will be cement concrete, or bituminous (macadam or double bituminous surface treatment [DBST].

Key climate and disaster resilient measures include: The project will upgrade the sub-project roads into the Department of Rural Roads Development (DRRD) Class A standard which provides for single lane 12 feet (3.66 m) paved surface with 4 feet (about 1m) unpaved shoulders. For resiliency the roads elevations will be raised above the frequently occurring flood level and considering future climate change impacts. Pavement surfacing will be bituminous, for 80% of the sub-project roads in Ayeyarwady. The remaining will have concrete cement surface. This will be applied in low lying village areas where drainage is difficult and raising the road to improve this would affect adjacent properties. In consideration of the varying ground and drainage conditions of the sub-project roads, three typical cross section types have been selected as follows: 15 - Flexible pavements – Double Bituminous Surface Treatment (DBST); - Flexible pavements – Penetration Macadam (Penmac); - Rigid pavements – Concrete (non-reinforced). The typical cross sections are shown in Figures 11-13.

? OF ROAD

5000 Roadway 3000 Carriageway 1500 1500

1:1.5

Figure 11: Typical cross section. Type 1-DBST general section (Carrigeway 3.0m, Shoulder 1.0m)

? OF ROAD

5000

3000

1500 1500

1:1.5

Penmac 75 mm Spec Clause 4.8

Aggregate Base Course 150 mm Spec Clause 3.2

SUB-Base 200 mm Spec Clause 3.1 Selected Subgrade Material 300mm Spec Clause 2.7 Figure 12: Typical cross section. Type 2-PENMAC general section section (Carrigeway 3.0m, Shoulder 1.0m)

5000

Shoulder 3000 Shoulder 1000 1000 1500 1500 Cement Stabilised Base

Existing road To be compacted Class B1 Concrete Pavement 200 mm Spec Clause 5.1.2.2 Spec Clause 2.6 Cement Stabilised Base 200 mm Spec Clause 3.3 Selected Subgrade Material 300mm Spec Clause 2.7 Figure 13: Typical cross section. Type 3- Concrete general section section (Carrigeway 3.0m, Shoulder 1.0m)

The typical cross sections are supplemented by additional side treatment/construction to take account of local surroundings – such as densely settled villages, alignments in close proximity to water channels and areas with minimal scope for positive surface water discharge. Final selection 16 of supplementary side construction will be made by the engineer when setting the centerline of the alignment for rehabilitation.

RRAP road designs incorporate particular measures that should reduce climate change impacts, including the following:

Embankments: The current DRRD Book of Standards does not indicate any minimum requirement for the height of road above High Flood Level, however recent DRRD designs have indicated that road formation is a minimum of 0.6m above the highest flood level. When the pavement depth is added to this the crown of the road is approximately 1.0m above high flood level. This provides adequate freeboard for wave run-up and settlement.

Given the uncertainties in quantifying the impacts of climate change the 1.0m is a simple and practical provision for climate proofing for the 20-year design life of the road. The difficulty is in reliably establishing the high flood level over the same period, and this may be overcome by obtaining further information through extended consultation with local people during construction. Information and data from the field gathered in this way will be validated by plotting the levels on the topographical survey, and ensuring the plot indicates a level surface area of water in flood storage or hydraulic gradient consistent with the drainage paths.

Cross drainage: The associated issue is the provision of cross drainage bridges and culverts. These will be provided where there is a flow path and taking account of the different flow paths under low water and high flood conditions. Structures will be designed for the worst hydraulic flow case where velocities are greatest and therefore also the potential for erosion and scour. The potential for flow reversal will also be accommodated in locations such as an emptying flood plain.

Consideration has been given during design to the provision of causeways (Irish bridges) or vented crossings where these are considered appropriate. These structures are only effective in areas with short flood durations where access is not disrupted over weeks or months, and may be suitable in hilly locations in Magway. The final determination of sizes and location will again be fixed after detailed discussions with local people in order to gather up to date information.

Erosion protection: Additional measures to protect embankments and drainage structures from erosion and scour will be provided, including turfing and vegetation of embankments and gabion mattresses at drainage structures.

Other measures: Concrete U-drains will be provided in areas where road alignments are located in a hill slope (e.g. Magway), as well as in some village areas to improve drainage. Concrete pavement construction may be selected to provide a more resilient pavement in flood prone areas.

Additional costs related to mitigation: The mitigation measures mentioned above are necessary to satisfy the design life of the road, and hence do not constitute additional costs over and above the engineering requirements.

Output 2: Rural Road Maintenance Management Improved. Adequate maintenance is critical to the sustainability and long-term resilience of the rural road network. The project will develop simple inventories of the rural road network starting from the project roads. The inventories will cover data on geographical location, length, cross section, historical maintenance records, future maintenance plans, budgetary requirements, evaluations etc., with respect to routine and periodic maintenance. The inventories will also include photographic descriptions of key structures. This will then be developed into further network applications through replication. The project will help DRRD improve its delivery of emergency maintenance works. DRRD carries out a significant amount of emergency maintenance each year. However, its contracting modalities are not 17 suitable for this type of maintenance, resulting in delays in starting the necessary works to restore access. The project will support DRRD in developing suitable contracting modalities (e.g. term- based contracts) that allow procurement to take place before the disaster manifests itself, and that allow works to be initiated through a simple work order. The project will develop suitable bidding and contract documents based on common disaster-related damages. The Project will also help DRRD assess the disaster vulnerability of the rural road network in the flood-prone Ayeyarwady Region, by creating or gathering disaster damage inventory, flood hazard maps, and climate change impacts, and integrating them in the CRRN database. Identification of the most disaster-prone road segments will help guide the selection of works and gradually improve the resilience of the network. Building from this information, the project will develop a pilot emergency management plan for DRRD in the Ayeyarwady Region. This will enable a quicker response to disasters for saving lives and livestock.

Key climate and disaster resilient measures include: (i) an inventory of the rural road network, including relevant disaster and climate risk information, (ii) ex ante contracting modalities (e.g. term-based contracts) enabling procurement to take place ahead of natural hazard, (iii) a disaster risk assessment of the rural road network in the Ayeyarwady Region.

IV. CLIMATE ADAPTATION PLANS WITHIN THE PROJECT

Climate-relevant adaptation finance for RAAP is estimated to be $32 million based on activities that directly contributes to adaptation, as detailed in Table 1 below.

Table 1: Estimation of adaptation finance for RCDP Adaptation Activity Target Estimated Adaptation Finance Justification Climate Risk Adaptation Costs ($ million) Output 1: Climate Reduce risks Type 1 activities. The incremental Resilient Roads from extreme cost of resilience measures is Rehabilitate. weather estimated at 35% of total cost of events $ 18.53 million Output 1.12 (floods)

Output 2 a: Rural Road N/A N/A Maintenance Management Improved Routine and periodic maintenance. Output 2 b: Rural Road N/A N/A Maintenance Management Improved Emergency maintenance. Output 2 c: Rural Road Reduce risks Type 2 activities. This will include Maintenance from extreme entire cost of output 2c to project will Management Improved weather $0.0313 million also help DRRD assess the Emergency events disaster vulnerability of the rural management. (floods)

12 Adaptation cost is including subbase and base course, structure, drainage and protection measures considered for the projects. Project Administration Manual (accessible from the list of linked documents in Appendix 2 of RRP) provides more details. 13 1/3 of output 2 costs. 18 Table 1: Estimation of adaptation finance for RCDP Adaptation Activity Target Estimated Adaptation Finance Justification Climate Risk Adaptation Costs ($ million) road network in the flood-prone Ayeyarwady Region. Output 3: Rural Road N/A Safety Improved: Sources: CDRA, 2018

V. CLIMATE MITIGATION PLANS WITHIN THE PROJECT

10. No activities seek to directly attain mitigation objectives under the RAAP project. Thus, no climate finance is accounted under mitigation.