SYSTEMS THEORY 559

Systems Theory: Synchronicity, Indeterminacy and Doubt

DARLA LINDBERG Pennsylvania State University

Synchronicity 40 voices have arrived in "Spem in alium," the piece is magical, living well beyond its end The idea of systems presented here will be because we have been introduced to an more like the theme in a canon or fugue. indeterminate "theme," not a song. The Douglas Hofstadter in Godel, Escher, Bach: an fanciful and generative accomplishment of the Eternal Golden Braid describes the musical canon or fugue theme as a system is that it canon as a puzzle game made popular in the uses the countersubject to provide rhythmic, day of Frederick the Great, King of Prussia. harmonic and melodic contrasts to the Johann Sebastian Bach wrote ten canons in subject. Unlike a pointlcounterpoint the Musical Offering for King Frederick. The deterministic system to expose difference, the canon lends itself to this kind of canon and the fugue are opportunistic in their systernlpuzzle because the theme is played intent to align similarities. The system as against itself. The canon introduces its single theme is played against itself making diversity theme along with some tricky hints and the into harmonic sustainability. canon theme is to be "discovered" by someone else. A round is a canon. "Three Early work contributing to thinking about Blind Mice" and "Row, Row, Row Your Boat" systems in this way can be traced to Ludwig are simple canons (Hofstadter, 1999). Canons von Bertalanffy (1901-1972), an important use time (staggered copies) and pitch theoretical biologist researching comparative (harmonic when voices overlap) and physiology, biophysics, cancer, psychology complexity (to invert the original theme below and philosophy of science. Working from a the copy), yet all the information about the humanistic worldview, he developed a kinetic original theme is always recoverable from any theory of stationary open systems (perhaps of the copies. This kind of transformation is like the canon and the fugue) and a holistic called an isomorphism and contributes epistemology keenly critical of the machine significantly to our understanding of metaphor (deterministic if-then statements) similarities in form, structure or for explaining existence. His main goal was to correspondences in identity of systems. unite metabolism, growth, morphogenesis, and sense physiology in his research toward a A more complex musical puzzle is a fugue. methodology of science known as the General The Tallis Scholars directed by Peter Phillips Systems Theory (GTS). Based on observations present "Spem in alium," a 40-voice motet that organic systems progress towards a (Gimell Records, 2001). The telltale sign of steady state, he reasoned that a non- this fugue is the way it begins: a single voice equilibrium state was not only possible but sings the theme. When the first voice is done, that it actually created opportunities for the it continues with a secondary theme while the generative and systemic processes necessary second voice and then the third, the fourth, for adaptation. and so on, until full 40 voices, enter in harmony with some accompaniment of the GTS represents a set of interrelated countersubject in some other voice. You components - could be social, biological, cannot compose a fugue by formula. When all situational - but existing in a complex space- 560 GElTING REAL: DESIGN ETHOS NOW

time relation to one another. The important into intelligent and flexible systems of being, point here is not that a relation exists but that complexity thinking is made possible because the structural similarities for expression, of technology. Values characteristic of metabolism and interacting, like the basic and vulnerable ecosystems are framed by the fundamental processes of the human cell, are most comprehensive collection of data making not lost in the transformation from one realm significant biodiversity possible. Recalling the to the next. So, like the Human Genome fugue, complexity thinking finds rhythmic, Project with its long string of simple Ts, As, Cs harmonic and melodic contrast in the and Gs, and like the isomorphism or the informational possibility because of the canon and the fugue, the basic theme is technology made available to us in the voice recoverable from one copy to the next. But if of Modernism and enhanced by multiple we are to learn anything from the HGP, the harmonic voices to follow. isomorphism or the canon and the fugue, we cannot be impressed with how simple things Indeterminacy are but how complex they must become in order to produce life, meaning and beauty. Marcel Proust puzzled over the self- Von Bertalanffy's work with GTS revealed satisfaction felt by "busy men" at not having these similarities exist even more importantly time to do what they needed to do. Poets and between living organisms and social systems. musicians express the spectacular gaps in Institutions, economies, laws and mores understanding created with the unexpected regulate practice and frame values. They can and hurtful behavior of another. Accountants be as destructive to human existence and the and lovers might possibly agree the letter that planet as any hurricane or biological needs to be written holds far more truth and pandemic. Based on these understanding one affection than the letter that gets sent. De can then begin to imagine a similar approach Botton wrote in his delightful How Proust Can to understanding the basic and fundamental Change Your Life, "Afraid of losing her, we processes critical to sustainability and natural forget all the others. Sure of keeping her, we systems design. Taking cues from the fugue, compare her with those others whom at once which aligns data thematically, this is made we prefer to her." (de Botton, 1997). possible with technology. Complexity thinking Similarly, Adam Smith set out to be a moralist depends on vast amounts of information made but became an economist instead (Levitt and physically possible because of the advances Dubner, 2005). Upon seeing how economic available to us through search and knowledge factors shaped the way a person thought or aggregation technologies that allow co- behaved it became apparent the incentives, evolutionary feedback, evolving probability, the innocuous choice, and the friction between asset mapping, parallel processing and individual desire and societal norms were the indeterminacy in the study of true complexity. more significant stuff of the modern moral life. In nature and society, systems of probability Ironically, in the early 1950s, when von and indeterminacy are realistic. Many of life's Bertalanffy shifted his research from the most compelling puzzles are indeterminate, biological sciences to his seminal work on the riddled with approximation, probability and General Systems Theory, computers had chance. Stochastic systems become even already sparked our imaginations, and we more realistic as they apply chance to the believed that mechanized intelligence was just structure of probability. Entries can be added, around the corner. A seeming paradox then changed or removed in a stochastic system becomes simply synchronicity. Computers are creating mutations. A Markov Chain is a by their very nature the epitome of rational stochastic system, a transition or thought - far from the borderless transformation table made up of a matrix of characteristic of intelligent behavior and probability. While it takes longer for a complexity thinking. Yet, logic is simply condition of probability to achieve equilibrium systems that factor in change or create rules and even a final result of stability is uncertain, for inventing new rules. So it is possible to over time the behavior of the system can be imagine the computer and technology as a analyzed and predicted statistically (e.g., a critical and interacting part of a paradigm shift coin toss has a 50°/o probability of being heads essential to von Bertalanffy's work. Equipped and a 5O0/0 chance of being tails). Marchov to manage enough information, with rules Chains are a significant part of Game about turning inflexible systems of thought Theoretic analysis to consider choice and SYSTEMS THEORY 561

consequence. Metamorphosis is a stochastic irrelevant to the engineering problem. The mutation over time and influence. Larger significant aspect is that the actual systems increase variety and with it message is one selected from a set of probability. World economies, natural possible messages. The system must be resources, population dynamics, disease designed to operate for each possible spread and ecological relationships are selection, not just the one which will complicated and intricate legacies of the "what actually be chosen since this is unknown if?" of probability and chance. De Certeau's at the time of design." (Shannon, 1948) observation that "The imaginary landscape of an inquiry is not without value, even if it is This was possible as a logarithmic function. without rigor...( I)t thus keeps before our eyes Time, bandwidth and number of relays tend to the structure of a social imagination in which vary logarithmically, doubling or squaring the the problem constantly takes different forms possible messages with each addition. and begins anew" (de Certeau, 1988). For Likewise, the logarithm measures by linear example a deeper look at the root causes of comparison with common standards - loglo or world hunger reveal a different problem - that x2. So, a base 2 gives us resulting units called of access to land and economical farming binary digits, or bits. If the base of 10 is used, practices. And researchers show a high the resulting units may be called decimal probability that the same industrial practices digits. Work like Shannon's contributed to the that force tens of millions of farmers off the notion that systems consist of vast amounts land by growing primarily high-profit exports of interrelated parts; engineering that also creates a production model for crop problem means operating in terms that can be acreage that contributes to a loss of scalable and random. This is not the process biodiversity in the natural systems ecologies of a determinate system. and species - fundamentally our first line of defense in disease-spread threats. Doubt

Fortunately, the brain is designed to work well The crisis of culture and agriculture is an with enormous amounts of synchronous example that would benefit from complexity information, probability and indeterminacy. A thinking as a visionary paradigm for sharing single channel can contain multiple messages vast amounts of useful information from a without mutual interference. Multiple signals wide range of wise people across increasingly or sine waves can be bundled together and porous borders. And it precedes any transmitted as one (often referred to as discussion of architecture, urban design, 'many-to-one') and then separated again at fabrication, and corresponding visionary the receiving end. In brain terms, a single sciences and economies. Without a paradigm neuron can process not only one signal but shiR in how we approach the natural systems also multiple complex ideas about the world of living on the planet, any other vision veils presented to it at any one time. If a signal is reality. Fundamentally, the cost and scope of too complex for one neuron, then like the maintaining biodiversity against increasing canon and the fugue, the brain can distribute threats on local ecosystems by invading the signal among many neurons dealing with migratory species is global and enormous, in one (harmonic) feature of the signal. both ecological and economic terms. Alien invasive species result when the natural C. E. Shannon's work on the signal-to-noise barriers of oceans, mountains, rivers and ratio intensified the interest in Information deserts lose their isolative quality essential for Theory. He believed that: unique species and ecosystems to evolve. In just a few hundred years, these barriers have "The fundamental problem of been rendered ineffective by the major global communication is that of reproducing at forces of tourism, globalization, and an one point either exactly or approximately emphasis on free trade. Global climate a message selected at another point. changes have also significantly assisted the Frequently the messages have meaning; spread and establishment of alien invasive that is they refer to or are correlated species because increasing temperatures according to some system with certain enable disease-carrying insects to extend their physical or conceptual entities. These range beyond natural predators into new semantic aspects of communication are 562 GETIING REAL: DESIGN ETHOS NOW

territories. Ecologist Andrew Kimbrell argues invasive species in order to sustain an that: essential biodiversity.

Our conversion from agrarian, local, fully To support a sustainable ecosystem, integrated food systems to industrialized, complexity thinking is predicated on the monocultured agricultural production has assumption that in order to be successful we brought a staggering number of negative need to be able to seek out and construct side effects, many of them unanticipated. useful information about what Nature would Throughout the entire food system, we require of us. That's a huge leap of faith can trace this crisis as it manifests itself in emphasizing Nature's wisdom over human soil erosion, poisoned ground waters, cleverness or disciplinary confidence. Faith in food-borne illnesses, loss of biodiversity, doubt, then, as Nature applies it, is the inequitable social consequences, toxic genome of diversity and interdisciplinarity. chemicals in foods and fiber, loss of There are 'no guarantees in life,' and Nature beauty, loss of species and wildlife understands that truism well by storing up habitat, and myriad other environmental reserves, recycling, hedging against and social problems. To make the crisis circumstance and patiently waiting to exercise even worse, we continue to export this an option. The never-plowed native prairie destructive industrial system of food features this kind of faith in its diversity of production around the earth. (Kimbrell, species, nearly all of which are perennial. 2002) Because their roots do not die as annual roots do, they hold soil through all seasons, even Critical information that could alert when drenched by rain. Moreover, perennial management agencies to the potential roots build soil as new roots form and others dangers of new species introductions is not decompose. This ecosystem thus maintains its shared. More likely, information sharing in an own health, runs on the sun's energy, and appropriate format for many countries and to recycles nutrients, and at no expense to the appropriately trained staff keeps countries planet or people. from taking prompt action. Complexity thinking on a subject like biodiversity is In order to do this, four synchronous groups critical at three diversity levels: genetic, are featured: warm-season grasses, cool- phenotypic and ecosystemic. Its importance season grasses, legumes, and composites. supports both the value of its components to Other species are present, but these groups sustain flagship species including tigers, are featured. Different species fill different rhinos, bears, turtles, sharks, elephants and roles. Some thrive in dry years; others in wet chiru and builds a first line of defense for ones. Some provide fertility by fixing disease threats to our existence. Without atmospheric nitrogen. Some tolerate shade biodiversity, disease can sweep through a while others require direct sunlight. Some homogenous species or crop creating a world repel insect predators. Some do better on health pandemic. Void of complexity thinking poor, rocky soils while others need rich, deep about the larger systems at risk, blind soil. Diversity provides the system with built- emphasis on productivity and consistency in resilience to changes and cycles in climate, standards (certified Grade AA eggs) breeds a water, insects and pests, grazers, and other poultry herd that is virtually the same animal. natural disturbances. The current Avian Influenza spread from Turkey to Romania is more about a contiguous herd than poorly regulated agriculture. Complexity thinking provides a paradigm to include critical search and knowledge aggregation that would improve the capacity of governments to act responsibly to prevent the arrival of alien invasive species. This demands improved laws and greater management capacity, backed by quarantine and customs systems that are capable of identifying and intercepting alien SYSTEMS THEORY 563

Conclusion sustainable ecology is the product of complexity thinking. The industrial or The challenge is to feature species diversity materials sector has no such discipline. As and perennialism when we work to construct progress is made, we can begin to reconfigure the theme for a natural system. We must human endeavors, knowledge engines, and all work to have all four functional groups other building and living economies and represented in our mixture or polyculture, and cultures to Nature's image, letting her be our it must produce harvestable products for ultimate teacher. direct human use. Our primary strategy, then, is to understand the theme--the structure of James Gleick wrote, "Where Chaos begins, the prairie ecosystem,--in order to model the classical science stops. For as long as the functions described above. Properly designed, world has had physicists inquiring into the the system itself should virtually eliminate the laws of nature, it has suffered a special ecological degradation characteristic of ignorance about disorder in the atmosphere, conventional till agriculture and minimize the in the turbulent sea, in the fluctuations of need for human intervention. wildlife populations, in the oscillations of the heart and the brain. The irregular side of This sounds idyllic, but is it possible? nature, the discontinuous and erratic side - Researchers in the area of "natural systems these have been puzzles to science, or worse, agriculture" have proven the functions of a monstrosities." (Gleick, 1987) natural system can be achieved by replicating its structure or theme. The implications and References potential impact of this work are global. By demonstrating underlying principles along De Botton, Alain. 1998. How Proust Can Change with practical applications, "natural systems" Your Life. New York: Vintage Books. 172. approaches can be transferable worldwide. Since it is not a formula but a harmonic De Certeau, Michel. 1988. The Practice of Everyday theme, developing species and mixtures of Life. Berkeley and Los Angeles: University of species appropriate to specific environments California Press. 41. can contribute to co-evolutionary biodiversity, producing healthy and sustainable practices. Gleick, James. 1987. Chaos: Making a New Science. With additional research, agriculture and an New York: Penguin Books. 3. accompanying knowledge economy that is resilient, productive over the long-term, Hofstadter, Douglas. 1999. Godel, Escher, Bach: an Eternal Golden Braid. New York: Basic Books. 8. economical, ecologically responsible, and socially aligned is just within reach. Kirnbrell, Andrew, editor. Fatal Harvest: the tragedy of industrial agriculture. Sausalito: The Foundation When we move away from till agriculture to for Deep Ecology by arrangement with Island Press. put together several plant species in a rough xi. structural analog of the prairie, that prairie we are imitating is a complex polyculture, similar Levitt, Steven, and Stephen Dubner. 2005. to the fugue. In our domestic prairies, which Freakonomics: a rogue economist explores the would feature grain, the corn or wheat fields hidden side of everything. New York: HarperCollins Books. 14-15. are no longer large acreages of a single crop (nor the urban place cut off from agriculture). Shannon, C. E. 'A Mathematical Theory of The wheat field must have interactions with Communications." Reprinted with corrections from other crops we have chosen to ignore over the The Bell System Technical Journal. Vol. 27, p. 1. 10,000 years to develop industrial till July, October, 1948. agriculture. We need ways of thinking about agricu\ture, biodiversity and co-evoluti0naW Smith, Steve and Peter Philllips, producers. 2001. systems that are as complex as necessaW- Thomas Tallis Spem In Alium. Oxford, Merton Calling for a trust in "natural systems' as a College Chapel: Girnell Records.