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China-Africa: Will the Marriage of Convenience Last?

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China-Africa: Will the Marriage of Convenience Last? COFACE ECONOMIC NOVEMBER 2017 PUBLICATIONS PANORAMA China-Africa: Will the marriage of convenience last? olf Warrior 2, released of strength in 2017. This should translate into in July 2017, became weaker Chinese demand for mineral resources the first non-Hollywood and lower commodity prices – starting with movie to break into the those of crude oil – both of which are lingering top 100 highest-grossing tendencies that will reshape the China-Africa film of all time at the glo- bilateral relationship. Declining trade between bal box office. The action movie portrays China the African continent and the Middle Kingdom, Was Africa’s protector. Just four days after the as well as the shrinking outward foreign direct 2 release of the movie, China opened its first investment (ODI) flows in the past two years, FALLING IN LOVE overseas military base on the coast of Djibouti, further reinforce this trend. IS EASIER THAN embodying the message of the movie. China has STAYING IN LOVE: demonstrated a particular interest in Djibouti, a This drop in demand will not affect all countries A tale of small country in the Horn of Africa, as a gateway in the region equally. Those which benefited the unbalanced exchanges to the continent, especially since the first Forum most from China’s expansion are expected to and increasing on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC). feel the impact more strongly. For this study, we dependency deployed an export dependency index to identify As its name suggests, FOCAC embodies and the main pockets of risk. It is scaled from 0 to 1, 11 oversees Beijing’s interest in the entire conti- where higher scores indicate more exposure to DEBUNKING nent. Since the first Forum was held in 2000, the disruptions of trade with China. Our results sug- MYTHS: upturn in economic cooperation between the gest that dependency on China across the conti- How and where Middle Kingdom and the African continent has nent has increased significantly between 2006 are China-Africa transformed China into a key economic partner and 2016. To put this into context, Sub-Saharan relations changing? for many African countries. However, closer bila- Africa’s commodity export dependency on China teral ties between China and most of its African was 0.24; higher than the 0.07 registered in the partners remain centred around China’s growing EU-28 and 0.12 in the United States. Moreover, demand for commodities – particularly mineral Sub-Saharan Africa still displays a much higher resources such as oil, metals and precious stones incidence than its emerging market peers in – and has become subject to increasing scrutiny. Asia and South America. Not surprisingly, we Nevertheless, almost 20 years after the inception found that large exporters of oil (Angola) and of FOCAC, it has become necessary to reassess metals (Zambia, South Africa) are most at risk the China-Africa relationship. China’s economic to potential shifts in Chinese demand. These rebalancing towards more domestic consump- countries have also benefited from more tion is underway, and the slowdown in economic inflows of Chinese ODI and lending. activity is apparent already, despite some signs ALL OTHER GROUP PANORAMAS ARE AVAILABLE ON www.coface.com/Economic-Studies-and-Country-Risks 2 COFACE ECONOMIC PUBLICATIONS CHINA-AFRICA: PANORAMA WILL THE MARRIAGE OF CONVENIENCE LAST? However, in spite of the overall deterioration in and services. However, like in every good marriage, export dependency on China, the latest develop- a healthy dose of scepticism is always warranted. ments do offer a glimmer of hope. Agricultural ODI and lending flows do not compare to trade commodities (South African oranges, Ethiopian flows in terms of value – in fact, they are one order sesame, Senegalese groundnuts or Mozambican of magnitude smaller. This means that African coun- tobacco) and wood products (Mozambique, tries with high dependency levels on China remain Nigeria, Equatorial Guinea, Cameroon, Ghana) - very exposed to a steeper correction in Chinese which could potentially benefit from China’s reba- demand or a return of lower commodity prices. At lancing of its growth model - have emerged as the same time, talks of relocating «The Factory of small, but welcome, additions to Africa’s export the World» to African countries are dampened by basket to China. Moreover Chinese ODI and lending the stubbornly low export volumes of manufactured has started to diversify away from the extractive articles to China. sectors, focusing more on manufacturing, utilities Carlos Ruben CASANOVA NIZARD FALLING IN LOVE IS EASIER THAN STAYING IN LOVE: A TALE OF UNBALANCED EXCHANGES AND INCREASING DEPENDENCY 1.1 From fringe supporter to largest These efforts paid off. The support from African trading partner: China goes to Africa nations was instrumental in granting China accession to the United Nations (UN) General Assembly in 1971. The first records of bilateral ties between Africa and 26 of the 76 votes in favour came from African nations China date back to the Middle Ages, with records going and only three of the 22 countries that maintain full as far back as the Tang Dynasty (618–907). During the diplomatic relations with Taiwan are in Africa; namely Song (960–1279) and Ming (1368–1644) Dynasties, Burkina Faso, São Tomé and Príncipe, and Swaziland. the transit of Chinese vessels across all corners of the The relationship remained strong over the years, and Indian Ocean intensified remarkably, which explains following the diplomatic vacuum left by the Tiananmen why Chinese objects from these periods can today Square Protests of 1989, China turned to its African be found in the East Coast of Africa. However, the allies for political and commercial support once again. foundation of modern economic relations did not take place until the establishment of the People’s This was followed by Jiang Zemin’s 1996 ‘Five Points Republic of China in 1949. China initially pursued the Proposal’ for the development of a long term rela- advancement of communism in the region through the tionship between China and African nations was support of various liberation or Maoist movements in a markedly commercial turn, focusing on bilateral Africa. However, Chinese assistance eventually became trade and moving away from interest rate free loans 3. more technical in nature 1, with Beijing sending medi- This trend was further reinforced by China’s ‘going- cal staff to African countries and funding numerous out policy’, an initiative established in 1999 to pro- infrastructure projects across the continent, including mote the internationalization of Chinese enterprises. the Tanzania–Zambia railway, which is now considered Expanding internationally was seen as a priority for a tribute to China–Africa friendship 2. China, as it would enable the country to secure access 1/ Bräutigam, D., 2011. ‘Chinese Development Aid in Africa: What, Where, Why and How Much?’ in Rising China: Global Challenges and Opportunities, Golley J. and Song L., Australia National University Press, Canberra, pp. 203–223. 2/ Yu, G., 2011. ‘Working on the Railroad: China and the Tanzania–Zambia Railway,’ Asian Survey, University of California Press, Volume. 11, No. 11, pp. 1101–1117. 3/ Sithara F., 2007. ‘Chronology of China–Africa Relations,’ in China Report, Volume 43, No.3 pp. 363–373 pp, Sage Journals. COFACE ECONOMIC PUBLICATIONS CHINA-AFRICA: 3 PANORAMA WILL THE MARRIAGE OF CONVENIENCE LAST? to resources to fuel its investment boom and create new markets for its manufactured goods and services overseas. The development aid that China provided Bilateral trade between China to Africa specifically focused on facilitating bilateral and Sub-Saharan Africa surged trade links through infrastructure and technological know-how, thereby generating win-win opportunities to USD 123 billion in 2016. for African exporters and China. China’s double-digit growth rates and thirst for natural resources drove it into relatively unexplored frontiers; a quest which helped to fuel trade with commodity exporters in Africa and beyond. As a region now has a clear trade deficit with China, with result of this expansion, bilateral trade between some marked geographical differences. For instance, China and Africa surged in the last decade, reaching although Western and Eastern Africa possess trade USD 178 billion in 2016, down from a record USD 210 deficits, both Southern and Central Africa still enjoy billion in 2013. In the case of Sub-Saharan Africa 4, surpluses. Unsurprisingly, Southern Africa (led by this figure was USD 123 billion in 2016, down from South Africa) accounts for most of the continent’s USD 193 billion in 2013. Imports have become an exports to China, followed by Central Africa (led by increasingly important constituent of bilateral trade Angola); while Western Africa (led by Nigeria) and flows, despite the fact that exports dominated for the Eastern Africa (led by Kenya and Tanzania) account larger part of the last decade (see charts 1 & 2). The for most of the imports. Chart 1A Exports to China from Sub-Saharan Africa By region (2006 – 2016) –In billion US dollars 120 110.7 111.7 102.5 100 77.5 80 66.9 60 53.2 54.8 45.2 40 33.3 28.8 24.4 20 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 ■ Central Africa ■ Eastern Africa ■ Sahel ■ Southern Africa ■ Western Africa Sub-Saharan Africa Source: UNComtrade, Coface Chart 1B: Exports from China to Sub-Saharan Africa By region (2006 – 2016) – In billion US dollars 100 81.6 82.7 80 70.8 68.3 64.6 60 54.3 42.3 34.9 40 31.8 25.1 17.6 20 0
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