AAcover-1.25spine.qxd:AA Template 12/15/09 11:12 AM Page 1 EOPC AMERICA AEROSPACE 1 January 2010 AUR 2010 JANUARY

Kepler’s search for Earth-likeplanets

Conversation with Gen. Norton A. Schwartz New capabilities for GPS II/III

APUBLICATIONOFTHEAMERICANINSTITUTEOFAERONAUTICSANDASTRONAUTICS toc.JAN2010.qxd:AA Template 12/14/09 11:48 AM Page 1

January 2010

DEPARTMENTS Page 8 EDITORIAL 3 Mitigation and adaptation

INTERNATIONAL BEAT 4 Page 16 Europe looks to outsourcing.

WASHINGTON WATCH 8 Money woes take center stage.

CONVERSATIONS 12 With Gen. Norton A. Schwartz.

VIEW FROM HERE 16 Page 20 A safer path to orbit.

AIRCRAFT UPDATE 20 Aircraft industry rides out the recession…so far.

ELECTRONICS UPDATE 24 Future tactical communications: Moving slowly.

ENGINEERING NOTEBOOK 28 Seeking other Earths.

OUT OF THE PAST 42 CAREER OPPORTUNITIES 46

FEATURES SMALL EXPLORERS WITH BIG BENEFITS 32 Although larger spacecraft with high-profile missions draw more attention, NASA’s Small Explorer satellites often bring bigger scientific returns. Page 28 by J.R.Wilson

KEPLER’S SEARCH FOR EARTH-LIKE PLANETS 36 NASA’s Kepler spacecraft, which searches for Earth-like planets in our part Page32 of our galaxy, has already had its first success. by Leonard David

BULLETIN AIAA Meeting Schedule B2 AIAA Courses and Training Program B4 AIAA News B5 Meeting Program B15 Calls for Papers B27

COVER This image from NASA's Kepler mission shows the telescope's full field of view—a star-rich patch of sky in the Page 36 constellations Cygnus and Lyra.To learn about this effort to find Earth-like planets,turn to page 36

Aerospace America (ISSN 0740-722X) is published monthly by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Inc. at 1801 Alexander Bell Drive, Reston, Va. 20191-4344 [703/264-7577]. Subscription rate is 50% of dues for AIAA members (and is not deductible therefrom). Nonmember subscription price: U.S. and Canada, $163, foreign, $200. Single copies $20 each. Postmaster: Send address changes and subscription orders to address above, attention AIAA Customer Service, 703/264-7500. Periodical postage paid at Herndon, VA, and at additional mailing offices. Copyright © 2010 by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Inc., all rights reserved. The name Aerospace America is registered by the AIAA in the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office. 40,000 copies of this issue printed. This is Volume 48, No. 1. jan.edit.qxd:AA Template 12/18/09 9:52 AM Page 1

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Elaine J. Camhi Editor-in-Chief Patricia Jefferson Associate Editor Mitigation and adaptation Greg Wilson Production Editor Jerry Grey, Editor-at-Large Christine Williams, Editor AIAA Bulletin For 12 days last December, government representatives from 190 nations came together in Denmark to participate in the United Nations Framework Correspondents Convention on Climate Change. The convention, according to its official site, Robert F. Dorr, Washington Philip Butterworth-Hayes, Europe “sets an overall framework for intergovernmental efforts to tackle the challenge Michael Westlake, Hong Kong posed by climate change. It recognizes that the climate system is a shared re- source whose stability can be affected by industrial and other emissions of car- Contributing Writers bon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.” Richard Aboulafia, John Binder, James W. Canan, Marco Cáceres, Edward Flinn, The end product of the meeting was to be known as the Copenhagen Pro- Tom Jones, Théo Pirard, David Rockwell, tocol, supplanting the Kyoto Protocol that has been ratified by 184 parties but Frank Sietzen, J.R. Wilson is due to expire in 2012. Squabbling arose over targets, and politics often drove the debate, but while no party attending the meetings argued about the Fitzgerald Art & Design Art Direction and Design need for greenhouse gas mitigation, the final outcome was far from certain. But that these discussions could be held at all is in no small measure thanks Craig Byl, Manufacturing and Distribution to the data provided by instruments aboard satellites from many nations. David W. Thompson, President During the convention, representatives from a broad spectrum of space Robert S. Dickman, Publisher agencies attended a side event, hosted by the European Space Agency, entitled STEERING COMMITTEE Global Monitoring of our Climate: the Essential Climate Variables. Speakers Michael B. Bragg, University of Illinois; there highlighted the vital role these satellites play in climate change research. Philip Hattis, Draper Laboratory; Mark S. These spacecraft measure not just carbon dioxide emissions levels, but changes Maurice, AFOSR; Laura McGill, Raytheon; in the atmosphere, oceans, and ice caps that collectively describe the state of George Muellner, Boeing; Merri Sanchez, our planet. National Aeronautics and Space Administra- Monitoring the changes in the color of the seas, for example, can tell us tion; Mary Snitch, Lockheed Martin about chlorophyll pigment and sediment concentration, which affect the life EDITORIAL BOARD that thrives within the waters. Instruments aboard a newly launched ESA satel- Ned Allen, Lockheed Martin Aeronautics; lite, SMOS, will be measuring ocean salinity, which contributes to ocean circu- Jean-Michel Contant, EADS; Eugene lation patterns. These data are crucial, because the health of Earth’s oceans Covert, Massachusetts Institute of Technol- dictates the health and welfare of its inhabitants. ogy; L.S. “Skip” Fletcher, Texas A&M Uni- On a positive note, recent satellite images show the Earth’s ozone layer to versity; Michael Francis, United Technologies; be healing. According to NASA, “Researchers have no doubt that the increase Christian Mari, Teuchos; Cam Martin, in ozone is because nations followed the 1987 Montreal Protocol on the Sub- NASA Dryden; Don Richardson, Donrich Research; Douglas Yazell, Honeywell stances that Deplete the Ozone.” At the same time that these efforts at mitigation are being made, steps are ADVERTISING also being taken to adapt to the changes that have already taken place. As we National Display and Classified: search for methods to slow down or halt man-made changes to the global cli- Robert Silverstein, 240.498.9674 mate, we must also find mechanisms to adapt to those that have already taken [email protected] place and that are, for the most part, irreversible. Once again, satellites and West Coast Display: Greg Cruse, other Earth-monitoring devices can play a significant role. 949.361.1870 / [email protected] As wind patterns evolve, for example, farmers can alter where, and per- Send materials to Craig Byl, AIAA, 1801 haps even what, they plant. As changes in ocean circulation and salinity be- Alexander Bell Drive, Suite 500, Reston, VA come clear, fisheries may be relocated; rises in sea levels can be monitored 20191-4344. Changes of address should be and buildings and roads rethought or relocated; changing herd migrations sent to Customer Service at the same address, can be observed and accommodated. Weather changes can be predicted with by e-mail at [email protected], or by fax at greater accuracy, allowing people more time to prepare for cataclysmic events. 703/264-7606. As the nations of the world strive to mitigate the negative effects of some Send Letters to the Editor to Elaine Camhi at the same address or [email protected] modern human activity, aerospace advancements enable us to measure them, halt their progress, and adapt to what cannot be undone. January 2010, Vol. 48, No. 1 Elaine Camhi Editor-in-Chief BEATlayout.qxd:AA Template 12/14/09 4:01 PM Page 2

Europelookstooutsourcing

OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS, EUROPE’S DE- ing initiatives, with East European coun- scale single-sourcing strategy should be fense departments will increase the tries more reticent. Continental Euro- used cautiously….Because of poor plan- amount of non-front-line services they pean military organizations have tended ning, the military sometimes pushes too outsource to private companies. to prefer combining services with their much responsibility onto the contractor, “A combination of budgetary pres- neighbors rather than outsourcing to the thus creating unbalanced risk/reward sit- sures and the fact that the nature of war- private sector. uations for the contractor, which then fare has changed will mean European delivers unsatisfactory services.” defense departments will have to look Learning from failure But the lessons are being learned increasingly at outsourcing as a future But the outsourcing process has not from all sides on how government de- option,” says Peter Howson, director of been universally successful. The crash of partments and private contractors should London-based consultants AMR, special- an RAF Nimrod MR2 aircraft with the best work together. There is now a grow- ists in this area. “There are other factors, loss of 14 military personnel while on in- ing understanding that an excessive fo- such as an end to conscription, also in- telligence gathering operations in Af- cus on price can lead to poor contracting volved. In labor-intensive areas such as ghanistan during 2006 occurred because performance. facilities management, where you need a of “a systemic breach of the military cov- “A great deal of the knowledge in large workforce involved in cleaning and enant brought about by significant fail- maintaining ordnance and equipment maintenance of facilities, it makes no sense to tie up troops in these activities, especially at times of turbulence.” “Adaptation to requirements for change, even when they clearly reflect the wishes of the taxpayers and the armed Mapping the trend forces, is not always as easy as we could imagine.” The degree to which European countries have already outsourced military train- ing, logistics, and facilities management ures on the part of the MOD [Ministry of lies with the original equipment manu- services to private companies is surpris- Defence], BAE Systems, and QinetiQ,” facturers [OEMs] anyway,” according to ingly extensive. according to an accident report commis- Howson. “But the onus is on the defense “We recently mapped the extent to sioned by the MOD [http://www.nimrod departments to ensure they agree on the which EU member states have out- review.org.uk/documents.htm]. BAE best deal.” sourced, and we found that, on average, Systems was responsible for drawing up up to 50% of the total costs of an opera- the “Nimrod Safety Case” between 2001 Building on success tion are now sometimes being per- and 2005 to analyze possible defects in As European governments seek to con- formed by outside contractors,” says the aircraft, while QinetiQ was employed trol their defense expenditures while in- Gerard Heckel, assistant capability man- as an independent advisor on the work. creasing their commitment to national ager (maneuver) at the Brussels-based All sides have since acted on the re- and EU operations overseas, outsourc- European Defence Agency (EDA). port’s recommendations—but this was ing is likely to become an increasingly in- For example, in recent EU crisis not the only case where contractor per- tegral part of their future operational management operations (CMO) in Chad, formance has been criticized; the out- planning. Not only is the range of activi- the Congo, and Bosnia and Herzego- sourcing experience in EU’s operations ties about to widen, but the way in which vina, outsourcing accounted for 50% of in the Congo was unanimously seen as contracts are tendered and managed all operational costs incurred by EU op- “a complete disaster….it failed to meet also will change radically over the next erational units, with the single largest the EU demands,” according to EDA ex- few years, as will the mutual understand- outsourcing expenditure going to trans- perts and a report on the operation ing between contractors and suppliers. port (around 30%), followed by food sup- [http://www.iss.europa.eu/uploads/me European defense industry experts plies/catering (20%), and communica- dia/op-72.pdf]. point to the success of the Strategic Air- tions and information technologies (8%). “Furthermore, no standalone out- lift Interim Solution strategic transport European defense departments cur- sourcing strategy can exist outside an program, which has provided many Eu- rently contract out a wide range of air- overall EU-led CMO logistics strategy,” ropean countries with access to heavy- craft overhaul, facilities management, say the report’s conclusions. They add, lift transporters they would otherwise and training services. The U.K. has gen- “Tactically, outsourcing seems to func- have been denied. “This has made erally been at the forefront of outsourc- tion poorly for short operations; large- strategic military transport not just ‘nice

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to have,’ but a backbone to future capa- remains with member states, which have “Adaptation to requirements for bilities for many states,” says one indus- differing views on what is a “core” or change, even when they clearly reflect try official. “noncore” military capability. But there the wishes of the taxpayers and the EDA staff are now looking at the is a widespread view among Europe’s armed forces, is not always as easy as possibility of using a private contractor military that there are now clearly de- we could imagine,” said Åke Svensson, to provide military air-to-air refueling fined areas where outsourcing has been chief executive of Saab AB, at a 2008 services for a number of states, following shown to have worked, despite initial EDA conference on outsourcing. “How- the concept laid down by the AirTanker reservations. ever, in several countries, best practices consortium in the U.K. and the U.S. Navy’s use of the Omega Aerial Refuel- ing Services commercial operations. Military aviation outsourcing among EU member states

Going online Aircraft maintenance, repair, and overhaul contract with the MOD to supply all aircrew Another catalyst to further outsourcing EADS Military Aircraft carries out depot training for the U.K.’s armed force. by EU member states has been the de- inspections on the E/F-18 Hornets flown by the Alenia provided the Italian air force with velopment of an Internet-based Euro- Spanish air force. The maintenance program simulator training for Eurofighter pilots at its pean Third Party Logistic Support por- covers the engines, fuel systems, installation of Turin facility between 2003 and 2007. Alenia is tal, hosted by the EDA, to link com- new equipment, and repair work. building simulators for the Italian and Roman- mercial sector capabilities with military QinetiQ has been awarded a U.K. MOD ian air forces, as well as teaming with L-3 to build a simulator for U.S. pilots, to be opera- requirements. contract by the Harrier integrated project tional this year or next. “What we have done is to facilitate team for through-life support to the Harrier aircraft to 2018. the outsourcing process,” said the EDA’s Information technology EADS Military Aircraft provides system Project Hercules is a 2006 $10.6-billion 10-year Gerard Heckel. “There is also a need to support for the German navy’s eight P-3C program in which a consortium of private further optimize this process, which we Orion long-range maritime patrol and anti- companies, notably Siemens and IBM, upgrade have found can produce savings of up to submarine warfare aircraft. and support nonmilitary IT and communica- 20-30% over legacy services. Fokker Services maintains, modifies, and tions systems for the German defense depart- “The first objective was to increase repairs a wide range of military aircraft, from ment. The work is undertaken by BWI Informa- the visibility of commercial services and jet fighters to fixed-wing patrol and transport tionstechnik GmbH (BWI IT), 49.9% owned by to consolidate the offer and the require- platforms to helicopters, including F-16 midlife the German government, with the remaining ment. We also wanted to offer assistance upgrade work for NATO air forces. 50.1% split equally between IBM and SBS. Saab has a 550-million-SEK order from to member states throughout the entire Military airlift the Swedish Defense Material Administration, contractual process. In multinational op- Several European NATO member countries and FMV, to support the Saab Gripen´s operative partners have pooled their resources to charter erations there is often a lack of visibility, capacity. The order includes program manage- six heavy-lift Antonov An-124-100 transport with each state working with its own ment, product maintenance, support, flight aircraft under the Strategic Airlift Interim Solu- database of contractors. With this portal testing, pilot equipment, and simulators. tion operation. The consortium includes 16 we can introduce more competition and Air traffic control NATO nations (Belgium, Canada, the Czech Re- more transparency in the cross-border The U.K. MOD has signed a contract with public, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, market. It’s not always about savings—it’s National Air Traffic Services (En Route) to Hungary, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Nor- about paying the right price for the job.” provide an en route ATC facility to the MOD way, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, and The EDA has been working along- until 2021. Military personnel manage en route the U.K.) and two partner nations (Finland and side other institutions such as NATO and traffic in a joint and integrated operation Sweden). alongside NATS (En Route) staff. its Maintenance and Supply Agency, as Air to air refueling well as the U.N. World Food Program Pilot training AirTanker is a U.K. company created to provide and Dept. for Field Support, to share The French ministry of defense has a contract the Future Strategic Tanker Aircraft (FSTA) best practices and lessons learned and with EADS´ Military Air Systems and Socata service to the U.K. MOD under a 27-year avoid any unnecessary duplication. “The for the supply of new training aircraft, the private finance initiative contract. The FSTA initial focus is on crisis management,” procurement of line and base aircraft mainte- program will replace the RAF’s current fleet of nance, and ground-based training devices says Heckel, “but the portal can support VC-10s and TriStars with 14 Airbus A330-200 such as flight simulators, and integrated logis- aircraft, the first of which will be delivered in any type of activity, and registered com- tics support, with supply chain management 2011. These new aircraft will be owned, sup- panies offer IT and training services, as plus infrastructure handling. EADS has set up a ported, and operated by AirTanker, who will well as logistics.” The portal is open to subsidiary in Cognac, the EADS Cognac Avia- also provide all support services, including con- any commercial organization established tion Training Services, to fulfill the contract. struction of a two-bay hangar, training, main- in an EU country. Ascent, a consortium formed by Lockheed tenance, flight operations, fleet management, The ultimate decision about what to Martin and VT Group, has a $12.7-billion and ground services. outsource and what to retain in-house

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at [a] national level exist today that lead organized on a multinational basis….Fi- for Eurocopter to support over 600 plat- to ‘win-win’ solutions.” nally, third-party logistics can sometimes forms, and a 22-year contract to provide compensate for the absence of support E120 training. Teaming for security assets of the member states. The lack of The U.K. has restructured its entire Another impetus for increased outsourc- such assets has increased in the past approach to aircraft support through the ing will be the growth in combined EU decade as many armed forces had to creation of the Defence Equipment and security operations overseas. These tend transform from static to more mobile Support Agency and the sale of DARA to be led by the larger EU states, which structures. This required new investment, Fleetlands (a helicopter support center) are often farther down the outsourcing which often led to shortfalls, in particular to Vector Aerospace. Prime contractors road than small countries—and the use in logistic and technical support.” are now providing “through-life” support of a single logistics supplier to a number New EU security initiatives—such as packages, with BAE Systems providing of different national military units can combined maritime surveillance opera- MRO services to all fast jets and to most make clear economic sense. tions and support to security operations AgustaWestland helicopters. “Using commercial support services in Somalia—offer new opportunities for In Germany a number of public/pri- can help to release military personnel logistics outsourcing. One key require- vate MRO contracts have been signed, that are badly needed for operations in ment is for more helicopters and more for example, with MTU on engine sup- the field,” said EDA Secretary General helicopter support services, a need that port for the RB199 and EJ200 power Javier Solana at a February 2008 EDA will not be easily met even by combining plants. Helicopter Flight Training ser- conference. “Second, there is the argu- national assets. vices, a consortium of CAE, Eurocopter, ment of cost-effectiveness. Outsourcing “This is a problem for NATO and the Rheinmetall Defense Electronics, and can save money while enhancing overall European Union alike,” said Solana in Thales, has a €488-million 14-year con- logistics performance. Crucially, cost sav- March 2009. “Inventories are high in tract with the defense department to ings will increase when logistic support is numbers, but the problem is that they are provide NH90 training. In Italy, military not deployable outside Europe in suffi- MRO work is undertaken by Agusta- cient numbers. Third-state partners assist Westland, Alenia, Avio, and Aeronavali. in our ESDP operations. We are grateful There is a limited amount of out- to them for their contributions, but we sourcing to OEMs of different states. In must not be dependent on them for key Sweden, for example, AgustaWestland capabilities such as helicopters....For the performs support work on the military’s medium term, the EDA is looking at op- AgustaWestland A109s (known as the tions for upgrading existing assets, in Hkp 15 in Sweden), while Saab supports particular the Mi-type helicopters, hun- the Saab 105 trainer and the coast dreds of which are in the inventories of guard’s Bombardier Dash 8s. Central and East-European countries. Eu- “Attitudes of other countries vary, ropean helicopter industries will have to but in most cases there’s a mix of or- be closely involved to provide upgrade ganic capability and outsourcing,” says packages at reasonable cost.” Aerostrategy’s David Stewart. “Is out- sourcing becoming more commonplace? Growing demand for MRO I believe so, yes. However, the change of The demand for new maintenance, re- practice mostly occurs at the point of pair, and overhaul (MRO) services to Eu- fleet replacement or new acquisitions, so ropean military aircraft operators, which the change is happening slowly.” currently account for the bulk of military aerospace outsourcing, is also large. The vvv global estimated military aircraft MRO In general terms there is agreement market in 2009 was $61.1 billion, ac- within Europe that using private compa- cording to a recent Aerostrategy report, nies to perform front-line security tasks which has highlighted the European plat- would be a step too far. But with plat- forms of the NH-90 and the Eurocopter forms, weapons, and communications Tiger as particularly significant. becoming increasingly complex and Eu- Europe’s largest military spenders ropean nations now involved in a grow- have already outsourced many of their ing number of overseas operations at a military MRO requirements, mainly to time of immense budgetary pressure, the the national OEMs. Eurocopter, Das- benefits of outsourcing have never sault, and Snecma have extensive mili- looked more attractive. tary MRO contracts in France, according Philip Butterworth-Hayes to Aerostrategy. Eurocopter’s business [email protected] interests include a €319-million contract Brighton,U.K.

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fits of nuclear rockets in upper stages are well established, even for lunar flights Our future in space (October 2009, Editor’s Note Both authors take issue and use. The many ferry flights of pro- page 3) and Is Human Space Flight with the writer’s opening premise. pellant stores to LEO demanded by Optional (October 2009, page 18) de- chemical propulsion to Mars are greatly serve comment. Both start with the pre- vvv diminished by using the much higher mise that the U.S. should venture into I just read Nuclear propulsion—the af- performing nuclear rockets for Mars space with a premature and irresponsi- fordable alternative (November2009, transport propulsion. This reduction in ble plan using existing, inefficient tech- page 3). Some of authors’ points are ferry flights (a factor of around four) can nology. No other plans were considered. valid, especially those relating to safety enable utilization of lower cost shuttle- The complaint against the space shuttle of nuclear propulsion. However, they derived transports from LEO. Shuttle-C program is that it is too expensive. The neglected or misrepresented some sal- derivatives offer over 90 mT cargo to or- current plans will create another system ient points, and I am troubled by several bit using a proven flight system and ex- which is too expensive to operate be- erroneous assertions. isting launch base facilities, requiring no cause it is based on inefficient rocket en- First, nuclear propulsion, at least in massive new transporter (Ares V) that gines. “…the committee identified five the NERVA format and probably in any are costing billions to develop and later alternative scenarios for…human space form, cannot be used for an Earth-to- about $1 billion+ a launch. Yes indeed, transportation….None could be realized orbit launcher. Too much radiation, bad implementation of the nuclear rocket under the present NASA budget….” The mass fractions. With today’s knowledge, saves many billions vs. chemical rockets, only thing the Advisory Committee on chemical propulsion is the only feasible even at the inaugural mission. the Future of the United States Space way of safely getting heavy payloads out The last 50 years are a testament Program could recommend was to of the Earth’s gravity well. Therefore, for that large-scale, man-rated space explo- spend more money to implement pre- human Mars exploration programs, for ration will not occur with chemical pro- mature and irresponsible plans. the foreseeable future, we will need the pulsion. While we can send flyweight ro- A new plan that stays within budget large chemical rockets, which tend to bots to Mars, Jupiter, and Saturn, nu- would seem to be in order, but the com- cost-optimize in the 90-120-tonne to or- clear propulsion must be recaptured for mittee did not even consider such a plan. bit size. But we can do a lot of good the ultimate manned mission to Mars. A plan that develops advanced per- planetary work, perhaps even human The reliance on large chemical rockets formance rocket engines (APREs) before exploration, without a generation of new for Mars has already been demonstrated we return to the Moon or venture to launchers, using the existing fleet. to be a self-defeating, bottomless cost pit, Mars is such a plan. APREs would be Nuclear propulsion, once activated, is and a change of propulsion technology more efficient because they would use extremely radioactive, and cannot be must be followed up. less fuel. Hence the fuel tanks would be safely returned to Earth. But in nuclear- As to radioactivity post flight, it is well smaller and would therefore have less safe orbits and for planetary injection and known that reactor “cooldown” occurs aerodynamic drag. A vehicle with APREs transit, it is fine. This is where nuclear with exponential rapidity after core shut- would put a greater payload in orbit at propulsion comes into its own, and I am down, and a number of days in parking lesser cost. APREs on the shuttle would an advocate for using it. orbit enables straightforward, safe opera- mean a $7-million saving in fuel costs To claim that billions of dollars could tions with a postfired nuclear rocket. each flight, a 15% reduction in the cost be saved by using nuclear propulsion The Rover/NERVA program was of an external tank, and a 24% reduction may be true in an extended Mars pro- shut off in 1972 after an investment of in aerodynamic drag of the external gram, but in the early phases, would add $1.5 billion. A total of 21 cores and tank. The shuttle would become a less billions of dollars of development costs rocket engines were fired, with thrust up expensive vehicle to operate. to an already too-thin NASA budget. to 210,000 lb. A flight engine capable of Also, development of APREs would In an ideal world, a six or seven year 10 hr and many restarts was the next it- make it possible to develop a single- development may actually be possible, eration in the program when it was ter- stage-to-orbit vehicle such as the X-33, but it is not hard to envision the practi- minated. Much of that legacy is still in Venture Star, which failed because of its calities, including the environmental hand, and a fast-track seven-year project inability to build tanks large enough to work, doubling or tripling that time. to get the flight engine is realistic. carry the fuel. APREs could be devel- Hum Mandell Stanley V.Gunn oped within the current budget. NASA is Former manager,NASA SEP Ernest Y.Robinson doing that now with the J-2 rocket en- gine; a redevelopment effort costing Hum Mandell’s letter alleges neglect or $1.5 billion over seven years. We should misrepresentation of several salient All letters addressed to the editor are considered to be submitted for possible publication, unless it be able to develop an APRE for $2 bil- points and erroneous assertions. These is expressly stated otherwise. All letters are subject lion in five years. Such a program will criticisms have missed their mark. to editing for length and to author response. Letters should be sent to: Correspondence, maintain the U.S. leadership in space. First, in our commentary there is no Aerospace America, 1801 Alexander Bell Drive, Dale L.Jensen advocacy of nuclear propulsion for LEO Suite 500, Reston, VA 20191-4344, or by Jentec transports. On the other hand, the bene- e-mail to: [email protected].

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Moneywoestakecenterstage

THE NATION’SFUTUREPOLICYONHUMAN han is chair of the House subcommittee spaceflight, as well as the future path for that oversees NASA funding. Also not NASA, are waiting to be defined as de- participating in the appeal was Rep. Bart bates on the economy, health care, and Gordon (D-Tenn.), chair of the House troop levels in Afghanistan continue. Science and Technology Committee and usually a highly visible figure during NASA fits and starts space deliberations. A plea by 81 members of the House of The much-anticipated October 28 Representatives for more money for hu- launch of NASA’s Ares I-X flight test ve- man spaceflight drew little press outside hicle was seen by some as a milestone the insular realm of those who focus on on the way to a next-generation human space developments. A successful shuttle spaceflight program. Others wondered if mission, one of the last unless current it was the last gasp in a program that plans change, was scarcely noticed by could be fundamentally altered or can- Congress, the media, or the public. Also celed. After routine delays, the rocket making little news were the first flight of apparently performed flawlessly on its 2- a rocket booster for the next-generation Rep. Suzanne Kosmas min flight. human spacecraft and the discovery of Although it was an important scien- water on the Moon. ternational partnerships, maximize the tific find that might have seemed dra- The 81 representatives wrote Presi- return on our nation’s investment, and matic in some other era, few in the cap- dent Barack Obama, urging the White spur discoveries that will enable explo- ital took much notice of what NASA House to increase NASA funding by up ration of our universe and improve life Administrator Charles Bolden called a to $3 billion annually so that the agency here on Earth.” “bright moment” when scientists found can accelerate a plan Obama inherited A next-generation human spaceflight nearly 25 gallons of water on the Moon to send astronauts beyond LEO. vehicle is essential to support the space in the aftermath of an October experi- Rep. Suzanne Kosmas (D-Fla.) or- station. But critics who question its sci- ment in which they slammed a space- ganized the appeal and attracted cosign- entific value argue that the station exists craft into the lunar surface. The crash ers from Florida, Texas, and California— merely as a reason to justify a next-gen- was part of NASA’s Lunar Crater Obser- all with important NASA installations. eration vehicle. As of now, the shuttle is vation and Sensing Satellite mission. “We believe an increased level of still slated for retirement this year, a new If water can be harvested on the lu- funding is essential to ensure NASA has vehicle is still under development (with- nar surface, astronauts might be able to the resources needed to meet the mis- out additional funding), and NASA says establish a colony or a jumping-off base sion challenges of human space flight,” it will be able to resume putting Ameri- for flights farther out into the solar sys- wrote the lawmakers. They pointed to can astronauts into low Earth orbit in the importance of the space station, the 2016 or 2017. In the interim, Ameri- future of which is closely interwoven cans will journey into space and service with that of a next-generation human the station using Russian spacecraft. spaceflight vehicle. The appeal to Obama for spaceflight “The International Space Station funding could not have come at a worse should remain operational as long as it time in the larger national context. Al- can be productive without being con- though the government will show a $1.4- strained by an arbitrary, budget-driven trillion deficit for FY09, which ended on termination date,” the representatives September 30—by far the largest in his- wrote. “The [NASA] Authorization Act tory—the administration is operating sev- of 2005 designated the ISS as a U.S. eral programs aimed at controlling, and National Laboratory to conduct research not increasing, government-wide fund- for other federal agencies and the com- ing of programs. mercial sector. Extending the ISS, at Critics of human spaceflight spend- least through 2020, is necessary in order ing pointed out that Rep. Alan Mollohan to maintain and improve important in- (D-W.Va.) did not sign the letter. Mollo- Rep. Alan Mollohan

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tem. Water is also a key ingredi- bitt, referring to communication ent for rocket fuel. The bloggers between his agency and the mili- who pooh-poohed the discovery tary. He characterized the lapse as pointed out that, in any event, an internal communication prob- the nation is nowhere near send- lem and said the FAA would re- ing astronauts to the Moon. train employees to follow the rules On November 27 the shuttle for missing-airplane incidents. Atlantis and its seven-person Babbitt also said that the North- crew commanded by Marine west Airlines overflight was part of Corps Col. Charles Hobaugh a larger problem—eroding profes- touched down after undocking sionalism among commercial air- from the ISS and heading home line pilots. from 11 days in space. When Lawmakers on the Hill ex- Northwest Airlines Flight 188 overflew its launched on November 16, the STS- destination by 150 miles. pressed concern over both the failure to 129 mission established a record for the notify the military and the evidence of pi- fewest problems reported in any NASA launch sequence in the history of the munication with the pilots. In several in- program. terviews, the general’s displeasure was palpable. The FAA and an air emergency Had the incident been a hijacking, he The government’s reaction when an out- would have been responsible for scram- of-communication airliner flew past its bling jet interceptors. If a hijacked air- destination October 21 was hindered by liner were being aimed like a missile to- poor communication and a failure to no- ward a U.S. city, the general would be tify the military for more than an hour, expected to pass a presidential order to say officials in Washington. fighter pilots to shoot the airliner down, The two pilots of Northwest Airlines killing innocents on board in order to Flight 188 from San Diego to Minne- save a larger number of lives on the apolis, an Airbus A320-200 with 144 ground. But all plans for using intercep- passengers and three flight attendants, tors to halt a repeat of the events of Sep- were out of contact with air traffic con- tember 11, 2001, rely on prompt notifi- trollers for 78 min. This condition is cation, and in the first “real world” test known as NORDO (no radio communi- of the arrangement, nothing happened cation) and is considered an emergency. promptly. FAA Administrator Randy Babbitt At 37,000 ft in busy airspace, the Airbus “No secret. We could have done bet- overflew its destination, Minneapolis-St. ter,” said FAA Administrator Randy Bab- lot ineptitude. Referring to the North- Paul Wold-Chamberlain International west incident and to a recent Continental Airport, by 150 miles. Airlines crash in Buffalo that was blamed Initially suspected of drifting asleep on a lack of focus by pilots, Sen. Byron while at the controls, Capt. Timothy Dorgan (D-N.D.) said, “We need to know Cheney and First Officer Richard Cole a lot more about what’s happening in later said they were distracted in the cockpits.” He and Sen. Amy Klobuchar cockpit while using laptop computers. (D-Minn.) introduced a bill to prohibit pi- The use of laptops on the flight deck is lots from using personal electronic de- prohibited by Northwest company policy vices while in flight. and the ban is likely, now, to become a “Passengers should not have to federal regulation. Northwest is owned worry about whether the pilots are flying by Delta Airlines. The FAA revoked the the plane or checking their laptops,” pilots’ licenses; they have appealed. said Klobuchar, in whose state the air- Air Force Gen. Victor E. Renuart Jr., craft was supposed to land. “This legisla- who heads both the North American tion will allow the FAA to make sure dis- Aerospace Defense Command and U.S. tractions are removed from the cockpit Northern Command, said he learned the and increase the safety of our air carri- airliner was out of touch only minutes ers.” Observers in Washington did not before the FAA belatedly restored com- Gen. Victor E. Renuart Jr. expect the legislation to reach the Sen-

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ate floor, because Babbitt’s staff was likely to preempt it by establishing a ban in the form of a federal regulation.

Fighter falls behind Ashton Carter, who became the Penta- AIAA gon’s acquisitions boss last April, ended 2009 under pressure to reshape the F- FORMS 35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter pro- gram. Carter is a longtime defense pro- NEW EARTH fessional and physicist who handled the Pentagon’s international affairs office in OBSERVATION the early Clinton years. The aircraft is running above cost TASK FORCE and behind schedule, and could become a burden on the administration as it pre- Ashton Carter pares its FY11 defense budget pro- AIAA has created a new posal. Carter called a weekend meeting tions purchasing perhaps 2,000 more. in November to address JSF cost issues. Lockheed Martin is prime contractor task force to assist in the He was reacting to a report from the De- for the F-35, but the contract manage- formulation of a national fense Contract Management Agency dis- ment report was also critical of other road map for the U.S. to closing significant delays on deliveries of participants in the program. Lockheed’s address investments in the test airplanes and components for future senior JSF official, Dan Crowley, ac- production aircraft. knowledges that the report is largely ac- Earth-observing industry JSF is important because by early curate but says the worst delays have to adequately inform future 2013 it could become the only manned been overcome and good progress is climate change debates warplane being manufactured in the U.S. now being made. Under current plans, the Air Force’s F- The first conventional, runway-based and decisions. Composed 22 Raptor and the Navy’s F/A-18E/F F-35A version of JSF for the Air Force of leading experts on policy Super Hornet will be out of production made its maiden flight December 15, and climate-monitoring then. Small numbers of F-15 Eagles and 2006. After 43 subsequent flights, tech- F-16 Fighting Falcons are being assem- nical problems prevented F-35A tests technology from within bled for overseas purchasers but not for from staying on schedule. The first short AIAA and in collaboration U.S. forces. Defense Secretary Robert takeoff vertical landing F-35B version for with other organizations, Gates has postponed development of a the Marine Corps, known as BF-1, made new manned bomber. its initial flight on June 11, 2008, fol- the task force is developing Never before has the nation staked lowed by BF-2 on February 25, 2009. A a stategy to come up with its air warfare future on a single aircraft second F-35A, paradoxically called AF-1 recommendations to help type, let alone one that is still at an early rather than AF-2, made its first flight on stage in its flight-testing program and far November 12, 2009. The carrier-based reach this goal. from becoming operational. Yet the Pen- F-35C version for the Navy has yet to tagon is committed to buying 2,456 fly, in part because of a conscious Navy For more information, JSFs in three versions, with other na- plan to conduct this part of the program at a deliberate pace. contact Craig Day Thus, only four examples of the air- The F-35 BF-2 aircraft made its initial flight craft—representing two of the three ver- at 703.264.3849 on February 25, 2009. sions—have taken to the air. The critical or [email protected]. report noted that just seven of 13 test aircraft have been completed, even though all 13 were to have been com- pleted and delivered for testing by Octo- ber 2009. Nevertheless, production is under way: Any design changes made as a result of flight testing would have to be incorporated into the initial production aircraft after they are built, increasing costs. Robert F. Dorr [email protected]

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Gen.NortonA.SchwartzInterview by Frank Sietzen

As chief of staff, you seem to have put People worried legitimately whether don’t value innovation or that we do not a premium on jointness, on making we had our act together, whether our nu- want our people to think about how to sure that the Air Force performs in har- clear enterprise was locked up tight. Our improvise. We’re not stifling imagina- mony with the other services. Tell us goal—mine and Secretary Donley’s—was tion. But there are some disciplines about it. to settle things down and reestablish the where there is absolutely no room for er- We, as an institution, have to play level of trust, which is essential for a na- ror, and the nuclear discipline is one. our part on the joint team. All of us—all tional security institution to succeed and of the services—have to operate collec- remain viable. So we went back to ba- Back to the Air Force role in Iraq and tively in order to succeed for our coun- sics—as in football, the fundamentals like Afghanistan. How do you assess the try. Secretary [of the Air Force Michael] blocking and tackling—emphasizing the performance and the importance of Donley and I and the rest of the Air things that are really important, includ- your UAVs, and what does that have Force leadership believe it is very impor- ing precision and reliability in our nu- to do with the evolution of the Air tant that the Air Force prepares itself clear operations and management. Force and your goals for it? and positions itself in ways that enable us I think the short answer is that the to be the best possible partner on the What happened? best shooters in the world won’t go joint team. That is our ethic. We stood up Global Strike Com- around a corner or through a door or a mand last August, to combine our window without the situational aware- The Air Force has been portrayed in ICBMs and our nuclear-capable bombers ness that the Air Force provides with our some circles as having been marginal- under a single authority. This was not a persistent, 24/7 surveillance. I think the ized in comparison to the ground ser- case of going back to SAC [Strategic Air reality is that we have enabled our team- vices in Iraq and Afghanistan. How do Command], but there are aspects of the mates to be successful at less risk to you respond to that? SAC culture that are worth emulating. themselves, and to exercise greater pre- There will be times when the Air One of those is the focus on profes- cision themselves with respect to posi- Force is ascendant in whatever missions sionalism, on precision, on compliance. tively identifying the enemy and neutral- might be assigned. At the moment, that There are some disciplines that require izing or detaining the enemy—whatever is not the case. The missions in Iraq and higher levels of compliance than others. the requirement might be. Afghanistan are largely ground-force- There are some that allow for more in- intensive. That does not threaten us, novation, but the nuclear business is not And your UAVs have played a big part does not threaten the Air Force. Nor among them. In the nuclear business, we in making this possible? should it. We must field a body of airmen have procedures that stand until officially Yes, and by the way, “unmanned” is with the equipment and the know-how amended. Sure, in a crisis, people have not an accurate description. They are pi- to do our work with precision and relia- to make judgments. But what we experi- loted and heavily manned—about 140 bility, and to engender trust, not only enced in our nuclear incidents was an in- airmen per orbit. Remotely piloted vehi- among our immediate teammates but sufficient level of focus, and in some cles is probably a better description. among the folks who rely on us—the cases a lack of compliance. So we have broader American public. This is why emphasized correcting that, making sure They were called RPVs in the begin- the nuclear incidents of 2008 were so that it never happens again. ning, weren’t they? difficult, because they undermined that Yes, way back when. These plat- fundamental trust in this wonderful insti- How has your approach affected the forms in a relatively benign environment tution, the United States Air Force. Air Force as a whole? allow us to maintain a level of surveil- The beauty of this, I think, is that lance that was unthinkable even 10 The previous chief of staff and secre- the discipline that characterizes Global years ago. And the surveillance and tar- tary of the Air Force were asked to re- Strike Command will migrate out into geting that they provide enable other air- sign as a result of those incidents, the larger Air Force organization, and craft and other systems to maximize which involved the Air Force unwit- that is healthy. I’m not saying that we their capabilities as well. A UAV may tip tingly flying nuclear warheads over the continental United States and mistak- “My view is that yes, the unmanned systems are a power- enly shipping ICBM components to Taiwan. So the Air Force was under a ful capability, and one that’s growing in prominence and cloud at the time of your appointment value, but that does not suggest that the manned to chief of staff. Tell us about that. systems are declining in value.”

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Interview by James W.Canan

a gunship, or tell a rescue helicopter Gen.Norton A.Schwartz is chief of staff of crew where their pickup needs to occur. Command,and served as the single manager the Air Force,responsible for the organi- These are the kinds of things that are for global air,land,and sea transportation zation, training,and equipping of nearly happening all the time. for the Dept.of Defense. 700,000 active-duty,guard,reserve,and civilian forces serving in the U.S.and Gen.Schwartz is a command pilot with Are we heading for an all-UAV Air overseas.As members of the Joint Chiefs more than 4,400 flying hours in a variety of Force? of Staff,the general and other service aircraft.He participated as a crewmember in I do not think that we will get to that chiefs function as military advisors to the the 1975 airlift evacuation point, at least not in the near future. This secretary of defense,the National Security of Saigon,and in 1991 may be hyperbole, but would you put Council,and the president. served as chief of staff your wife or your grandchildren on a pas- of the Joint Special senger-carrying aircraft without a pilot A 1973 graduate of the U.S.Air Force OperationsTask Force aboard? Maybe someday our aircraft will Academy,Gen.Schwartz is also an alum- for Northern Iraq in be totally unmanned, but we’re not there nus of the National War College,a mem- Operations Desert yet. The reality is, at least in my mind, that ber of the Council on Foreign Relations, Shield and Desert there will be a continuing need for tactical and a 1994 Fellow of MIT’s Seminar XXI. Storm.In 1997 he led the aviation—some of the tactical aircraft will He has served as commander of the JointTask Force that be manned and some unmanned. Special Operations Command-Pacific, prepared for the the Alaskan Command,Alaskan North noncombatant What is the trend in Air Force pro- American Aerospace Defense Command evacuation of curement of manned and unmanned Region,and the 11th Air Force,Elmendorf U.S.citizens in aircraft? AFB.Before assuming his current position, Cambodia. In the current year, our aircraft pro- he was commander,U.S.Transportation curement is about one-third unmanned and two-thirds manned. The percentage of un- manned will probably increase over time. the same time, we want to be sure that acting with the joint terminal attack con- when the chips are down, our airmen de- troller on the ground, for example, who To one-half perhaps? liver. We want them to be what they need has eyes on the target, at weaponeering I would say so. But I think it will be to be in tough spots. That is true for the their targets—choosing from among a mix some time before it goes beyond one- ground forces, too. We also want them of weapons—and at taking advantage of half. This is a period of change in the Air to exercise judgment. So we need mature the precision that our weapons give us. Force and it does make some people and sophisticated and talented people in Our choice and delivery of weapons is nervous about their future. My view is order to do this—people who can think done in such a way as to generate just the that yes, the unmanned systems are a while they are flying airplanes. desired effect and no more. powerful capability, and one that’s grow- ing in prominence and value, but that Do you have them, or enough of them? But the civilian casualties still happen. does not suggest that the manned sys- Yes. And if they are trained well and Are civilian casualties an inherent tems are declining in value. have decent equipment, and if we pro- part of our business? I would argue that vide them the insights they need to make that they are the exception. We are far Again, back to the action in Iraq and good decisions in real time, then they from perfect; I wouldn’t argue that. Afghanistan. The Air Force has taken will deliver. Avoiding civilian casualties means in a lot of criticism for civilian collateral some cases that our airmen don’t shoot, damage from both manned and un- Your aircrews don’t have to do it all by and that’s true for ground forces as well. manned air strikes, for killing non- themselves, do they? combatants as well as combatants. No. Unlike even 10 years ago, when You mentioned the increasing impor- How do you respond to that? our people in the cockpits were operating tance of persistent ISR [intelligence, Do I apologize for civilian casualties? alone much more, there is connectivity to- surveillance, and reconnaissance] and Of course I do. We want to minimize day. There is data passing from command the role that UAVs play in that. Are them, and we strive diligently to do so. If and control nodes that allows those flying unmanned systems supplanting space you talk to the commanders in Iraq and the aircraft to make more informed deci- systems to some extent in ISR, and is Afghanistan, they will confirm that. At sions. Our people are very good at inter- space becoming less important in the

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“There is going to be a lot more of‘not bad’than there will be of‘wow’in our space acquisition

Air Force scheme of things? bility of space systems. Taking into ac- production rates of at least 80 aircraft a No. I don’t think that’s the case at count the real-world demonstration of year, and hopefully higher than that. all. But we are becoming more sophisti- China’s antisatellite capability, does cated in attaining some of the benefits of the notion that U.S. space systems are When is F-35 production supposed to near-space platforms and coverage that increasingly vulnerable play more start? communications satellites or surveillance heavily in your plans for space? Deliveries of the first trainer aircraft satellites provide from geosynchronous It does, and this is why space situa- are scheduled for 2013. The F-35 IOC or even low-Earth orbits. tional awareness is so important to us. In [initial operational capability] should be the past, we basically assumed the invul- in the neighborhood of 2014. We ex- Transatmospheric platforms? nerability of our space platforms. Now pect to take deliveries of 250-300 F-35s Even lower in altitude than the that basic assumption has been called by 2016 or 2017, if the program pro- transatmosphere. We could have a com- into question. What is increasingly re- duces as intended. munications relay package on a Global quired is the ability to ascertain whether Hawk at 65,000 ft that essentially serves a particular satellite is threatened in We have been hearing more about the the same function as a communications some way, and if it is, to attribute the following fighter, your sixth-genera- satellite. The footprint would be some- threat. Easier said than done, but that is tion fighter. Where does the Air Force what less—maybe not half the globe, but our need. And so, because of develop- stand on that? theater-size—and that is a promising ments, space situational awareness will We are a junior partner with the prospect. increase in prominence. Navy on the Navy UCAS—the Un- manned Combat Aircraft System. It is an So where are you headed with all of Are you accentuating acquisition pro- unmanned, low-observable design. As that? grams that are aimed at space situa- this program proceeds, we will see how I think we are headed for a mix. We tional awareness? well we can get [unmanned] tactical air- will have some satellite-like capability from Absolutely. craft to operate autonomously and in air-breathing platforms, and it is conceiv- close proximity with others, and to do able that some of those could be lighter Let’s talk about fighters now—the F-22 other things. That’s the purpose of the than air. Talk about going back to the fu- and the F-35. You and Secretary Don- test program. ture, we could have dirigibles or blimps or ley took some heat in Air Force circles other lighter-than-air platforms that could and elsewhere for agreeing with De- How will it be possible to have an un- remain at 65,000 ft for weeks at a time. fense Secretary [Robert] Gates in cur- manned air combat fighter? It was tailing F-22 production at 187 air- once considered unthinkable in terms But would you say that space plat- craft. Tell us about that. of command and control. forms are indispensable, by and large? The F-22 was not an easy call, but Again, this is a question of combin- There are very powerful reasons to we came to the conclusion that, given all ing sensors and communications. We have eyeballs in space, including breadth of the demands on our Air Force, we think it can be done. An unmanned of coverage and relative invulnerability. had invested enough capital in F-22 and fighter is attractive in some respects. The But there are other concepts that are be- it was time to move on to the F-35. typical operational flight duration of a ginning to jell that suggest that not every- thing has to be a billion-and-a-half-dollar “The F-35 is vitally important; there is a lot of pressure satellite. on the program to deliver.” As to that, would it be fair to say that you are intent on the Air Force going The key thing here is that the F-35 fighter might be two to six hours with re- back to basics in space acquisitions? is not only our path to sustaining our tac- fueling and so on. But an unmanned Yes. I have said in the past that we tical air capability, it is that for the Navy fighter could conceivably fly much longer have had a temptation to design and build and the Marine Corps as well and, im- than that. It might be able to pull 10 gs, the most exquisite systems, and we have portantly, for at least eight international something a manned fighter could not proven that we can do that. But we went partners in the program. The F-35 is vi- do, because of the physical limitations of too far in trying to build too many things tally important; there is a lot of pressure the man or woman in the cockpit. on the same platform. So there is going on the program to deliver. It is important to be a lot more of “not bad” than there to the Air Force because it will transition And your acquisition costs would be will be of “wow” in our space acquisition us to a fifth-generation fighter force. It less for an unmanned fighter because programs—and in all of our programs. will allow us to deal with the aging air- it would not have the life-support sys- craft issue we have in the remainder of tems required of a manned fighter? You referred to the relative invulnera- our fighter fleet—provided we have F-35 Somewhat less. We think a larger

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programs—and in all of our programs.”

aircraft—an unmanned bomber—would that it reflects renewed confidence in our be only about 5% less costly than a institution. Of course, that brings with it manned one. The delta—the difference in special obligations. We’re going to con- cost—would be somewhat greater for an duct this acquisition process as scrupu- unmanned fighter. But in any case, I lously as we possibly can, and with lots think the key thing here is that there is of help from whoever wants to offer it. much promise in this unmanned busi- There is no territoriality about this. We ness. That does not suggest that our tac- want to do this so scrupulously that the tical aviation will be unmanned before offerers—the contractors—will not have 2020, at the earliest, and probably not an incentive to protest the contract before 2030. award. The key thing here is that there is more on the line than just the Air Back to acquisition and the future Force’s reputation. This is really a ques- shape of the force. Tell us about that. tion of the efficacy of defense acquisi- Let’s talk about long-range strike. tion, and whether the industry can per- As you know, the secretary of defense form its role in a responsible way. terminated our former next-generation bomber program, because he was not When all is said and done, will you convinced that we had all the parameters have enough long-range and tactical just right—manned or unmanned, sub- combat aircraft—and the right mix? sonic or supersonic, low observable or We are going to be a somewhat very low observable, range, payload. We smaller force. We’re not going to have must convince him that the U.S. needs 150 bombers after the present fleet the capability to perform long-range phases out. And we’ll probably have strike and to penetrate denied areas in fewer fighters than the 2,200 we would order to do so. There are those who ad- have preferred, after the F-16s age out. vocate standoff weapons or ballistic mis- So this means that we will have to com- siles instead of a penetrating bomber. pensate for that through better training But my sense is that the nation needs a and high-quality maintenance and crews. more versatile portfolio than something that I would describe—perhaps an over- So force multiplication will be in- simplification—as “fire and forget.” creasingly important as you go along? Force multiplication is the secret Should it be a manned bomber? weapon. Precision, simulation, and per- That depends. Will it be a nuclear- vasive ISR are the keys to that. Some ar- capable bomber? We don’t know yet. If eas are growing, and ISR is clearly one it is going to be a nuclear-capable plat- of them. Some areas are shrinking a lit- form, like the B-2, my sense is that it has tle bit, and the fighter force structure is to be manned. Would you be comfort- one. But we still have and will always able with an unmanned nuclear bomber? have mandates for the capabilities that Much depends on how everything only America’s Air Force can provide, so comes out in the nuclear posture review we have to be ingenious and innovative and in strategic arms control negotia- and imaginative about how we go about tions. There is still much to be resolved. providing those capabilities.

Talk about tanker acquisition. The pre- Sum up your priorities. vious competition for the KCX turned Our priorities for the Air Force sim- sour, and the Air Force was criticized ply are to sustain our nuclear enterprise; and temporarily relieved of responsi- to function in ways that make us an ab- bility for the next round of bidding. solutely trusted partner on the joint team Are you confident that the program and in today’s fight; to take care of our will work out this time? people and, importantly, our families; to I’m pleased and honored that the be successful in our key modernization secretary of defense chose to allow the programs, including the KCX and F-35, Air Force to run this program. I do think and to improve our acquisition process.

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Asaferpathtoorbit

ITSANNIVERSARYWENTALMOSTUNNO- cision. The Saturn V, its guidance system NASA launched the Ares ticed, but 40 years have now passed unaffected by the strike, rumbled confi- I-X vehicle successfully since Apollo 12 achieved humanity’s dently upward. John Aaron of Mission on October 28, 2009. second lunar landing. Astronauts Pete Control had Bean cut in a backup power Future tests of the Ares I series, designed Conrad, Dick Gordon, and Al Bean source to the command module’s signal to launch the Orion launched into a Cape Canaveral down- conditioning equipment, restoring telem- spacecraft, will pour on November 14, 1969, atop their etry and instrument readings. Minutes depend on the 363-ft Saturn V booster. Thirty-six sec- later, Apollo 12 was safely in orbit. Gor- White House’s onds after liftoff, the rocket’s ionized ex- don piloted Yankee Clipper around the policy and budget priorities for NASA. haust plume triggered a pair of spectacu- Moon while Mission Control Central lar lightning strikes that jolted the guided Conrad and Bean to a pinpoint vehicle, knocking the spacecraft fuel cells landing next to the Surveyor 3 probe in lant, cutting the long-term costs of sup- off line and lighting up Yankee Clipper’s the Ocean of Storms. porting deep space exploration. instrument panel like a Christmas tree. On October 28, NASA’s Constella- Mission commander Conrad’s left hand Deciding the future tion program launched its Ares I-X test hovered near the abort handle as the Four decades later, the U.S. government rocket on a brief but spectacular subor- crew and Mission Control scrambled to is rethinking the 2004 decision to send bital flight. The first stage, an ATK-built understand and react to the emergency. its astronauts in the footsteps of the shuttle solid rocket motor, powered the At an Astronaut Scholarship Foun- Apollo 12 crew. President Obama’s ad- dummy upper stage and Orion boiler- dation commemoration featuring Bean ministration has not as yet announced its plate capsule to 130,000 ft and Mach and Gordon last November, backup com- policy for human spaceflight, but the 4.7 before burnout. The vehicle’s flight mand module pilot Al Worden remem- president’s space priorities will no doubt avionics and roll control thrusters per- bered how the crisis caused momentary be reflected in his proposed FY11 bud- formed well. There were problems: Mo- confusion both on the ground and aloft. get, to be released in February. A worri- tor exhaust battered launch pad 39B, Conrad, recalled the Air Force’s Wor- some portent was last fall’s White House the unpowered second stage tumbled den, could have aborted, blasting the request that NASA identify a plan to re- unexpectedly after booster separation, command module free of the Saturn V duce its overall budget by 10%. and a failed main parachute caused the and dumping several hundred million Coupled with the Augustine commit- spent booster casing to buckle upon wa- dollars of Moon rocket into the Atlantic. tee’s finding that the current NASA ter impact. Still, the test proved NASA But “Pete did exactly what Navy pilots budget is inadequate to do more than re- could design, build, test, and fly a new typically do in an emergency—nothing.” place the space shuttle and operate the rocket for astronauts. It was Conrad cool—and the right de- ISS, the proposed reduction would mean Finally, Atlantis lifted off for the ISS a deliberate shelving of U.S. plans to on November 16, marking the shift of send humans beyond LEO. Such a deci- ISS logistics to the post-shuttle era. STS- A lightning strike on the Apollo 12 Saturn V sion, if formalized and endorsed by Con- 129’s crew—Randy Bresnik, Mike Fore- 36 sec after liftoff nearly caused a launch abort. gress, will reverse the Bush administra- man, Charlie Hobaugh, Melvin Leland, Future launchers should be designed for much tion’s 2004 policy direction. The Moon Bobby Satcher, and Butch Wilmore—in- better safety performance, including both high reliability and a robust launch escape system. will be off limits to U.S. explorers for the stalled two 13,000-spare-parts platforms foreseeable future. on the ISS truss, each storing compo- These disturbing rumblings undercut nents too large to be easily delivered by the string of technical successes notched other vehicles once the shuttle retires. by NASA in the final months of 2009. This was Atlantis’ penultimate flight; just On October 9, the LCROSS probe dove five shuttle missions remain before the through the plume of debris thrown up orbiter fleet stands down late this year. by the impact of its Centaur carrier stage Despite these successes, NASA’s fu- into the Cabeus crater near the Moon’s ture seems beyond its control, dependent south pole. Analysis of LCROSS spec- on how high the Obama administration tral measurements released on Novem- ranks the agency amid a constellation of ber 12 confirmed the presence of signifi- competing priorities. NASA Administra- cant amounts of water ice in the ejecta. tor Charles F. Bolden Jr. acknowledged in If tapped, an ice reservoir could supply mid-November that he hoped to brief the water for life support and even propel- White House on new human spaceflight

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options by Thanksgiving, providers will gain the or- but at press time a presi- bital experience needed to dential direction for handle future crew trans- NASA was still pending. port. Traditional industry firms like United Launch Ares I in Eclipse? Alliance also argue that Even before the Ares I-X their existing boosters can flight took place, the Au- help shorten the pending gustine committee had LEO-access gap. displayed little enthusi- Constellation managers asm for the Constellation argue that Ares I is well “program of record,” into development and will particularly the proposed be fielded before any com- crew launch vehicle. Al- mercial system—whether a though acknowledging human-rated EELV or a that Ares I was a reason- Last September the Orion launch abort system underwent ground vibration tests at new launcher—can reach able solution in 2005, Orbital Sciences’ facility in Dulles, Va. The 53-ft-long assembly was an inert test article; maturity. Designed from the committee found that a live pad-abort test of the system will be conducted this spring at White Sands. the ground up with astro- its development would nauts in mind, Ares I likely stretch into 2017, too late to pro- meets NASA human-rating standards. vide much crew or logistical support to transitional vehicle, like the 1960s Sat- Should it fail on ascent, the Orion crew ISS. Instead, the panel recommended urn IB: Ares I could flight-test compo- would be blasted clear by its launch abort that NASA pursue commercial options nents slated for Ares V, such as five-seg- system. The Ares I-Orion design goal is for LEO crew transport. As a hedge ment solid rocket boosters and the J-2X to decrease the shuttle-era probability of against failure, NASA could launch engine. Ares I would also help retain “loss of crew,” the euphemism for a fatal Orion on a human-rated version of the Kennedy’s skilled launch workforce while accident, by at least a factor of 10. heavy-lift Ares V. NASA develops the massive Ares V, the The commercial space sector has ar- Ares I critics have focused on pur- key to beyond-LEO exploration. gued that it can match that reliability. ported technical problems such as thrust In the committee’s view, the solution Brett Alexander, president of the Com- oscillation, flight stability, and potential to performance and workforce problems mercial Spaceflight Federation, argued collision with its launch tower. None of alike was to have NASA bypass Ares I, in September that the safety of EELV or these “show-stoppers” has withstood move to commercially provided (vs. gov- new commercial launchers is “a non- the application of concentrated prob- ernment-operated) LEO transport, and issue.” He explained, for example, that lem-solving by NASA and contractor en- accelerate the Ares V. If commercial operators of an Atlas V carrying a bil- gineers. More difficult to address has services failed, the panel argued, Ares V lion-dollar Mars probe would be foolish been Ares I’s launch performance for could get crews to ISS. The group was to take shortcuts that might reduce the lunar mission: Its LEO payload ca- confident that military launchers like the launch safety and reliability. Alexander pacity of 55,600 lb may limit Orion’s Delta IV, as well as new commercial de- propulsion capability and system redun- signs, could with NASA oversight meet The Orion launch abort motor will provide 500,000 dancy. Although rigorously controlling human-rating safety standards, just as lb of thrust for 5 sec to pull Orion clear of a booster failure.(Courtesy ATK.) Orion’s mass growth might enable Ares the Atlas and Titan ICBMs had safely I to support a lunar landing mission, launched Mercury and Gemini. achieving the full suite of lunar destina- tions and follow-on missions to near- Is there a safety gap? Earth objects would require squeezing Commercial space firms were delighted better performance out of the vehicle. at the Augustine committee’s broad en- The inadequate Constellation budget dorsement. SpaceX believes its Dragon has been the biggest source of Ares I cargo capsule can be upgraded quickly troubles. It may fly too late to fulfill one of to handle crew services (given several its original purposes—a safe and efficient hundred million dollars in NASA fund- shuttle successor for LEO crew transport. ing), and plans to launch its inaugural And cost is a concern: With only two Falcon 9 booster this year. Orbital Sci- launches per year to the ISS, and lunar ences hopes to demonstrate its Taurus II- voyages well down the road, Ares I will launched Cygnus capsule in early 2011. never realize economies of scale. Its re- NASA hopes that once cargo delivery sidual value today may be to serve as a flights to ISS begin in 2011, commercial

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contends that commercial vehicles can would soldier on for a few years incorporate fault-detection and abort sys- without additional escape capabil- tems at reasonable cost, equaling the ity. NASA again decided that ex- safety performance of Ares I while deliv- pensive safety modifications made ering astronauts to ISS more cheaply. little programmatic sense during But experienced military space man- the few years needed for station agers I’ve talked to say the Air Force’s completion. current stable of satellite launchers were Acknowledging the very real simply not designed with astronauts in cost and schedule pressures it faces mind. For satellite cargo, a success rate today, NASA should disregard the of 99% is perfectly acceptable—gratify- CAIB recommendations with only ing, in fact. The shuttle’s demonstrated the greatest reluctance. It may be reliability is just over 98%, and NASA possible to human-rate the Ares V, would like its successor to be at least an just as the Saturn V safely carried order of magnitude more reliable. Thus, the Apollo 12 astronauts 40 years for commercial crew transport, the vehi- ago. But building a launch abort cle had better be significantly more reli- system capable of pulling an Orion able, or its escape system will need to be crew free from a failing Ares V will bullet-proof. be a significant challenge—not im- possible, but not trivial, either. The Cygnus advanced maneuvering spacecraft is Orbital Sciences’ cargo delivery vehicle. Cygnus The safe course A commercial crew launcher, using will perform ISS resupply flights under NASA’s Whether or not the White House directs either Orion or a commercial capsule, commercial resupply service contract. NASA to embrace commercial crew would emulate Ares I in separating crew transport, it is worthwhile to recall where from cargo (something Ares V or a shut- our human spaceflight program was after tle-derived heavy lifter would not do). But such safety performance depends on de- the Columbia accident, just seven years how will commercial providers keep signing and building new vehicles ac- ago. The agency had again fatally under- their costs low while fielding a highly re- cording to NASA human rating require- estimated the potential for a catastrophe, liable booster and capable launch escape ments. In engineering terms, that means and looked hard at how it might improve system? Because bulk ISS cargo services a structural factor of safety of 1.4, crew the odds for future shuttle crews. demand neither high reliability nor an es- situational awareness, manual control, After Challenger, NASA added only a cape system, mandating an early shift to robustness, redundancy, and so on. I minimal escape/bailout capability to the commercial crew services would put as- could not agree more with their recom- orbiters, anticipating they would retire by tronauts aboard without a demonstrated mendation that these requirements “not the mid-1990s. In case of a launch or en- safety record. A more prudent path be waived or rationalized away,” in the try emergency, my colleagues and I would be to first demonstrate system name of cost-cutting, for example. trained for a manual bailout through the safety with a five-year program of testing I’m one space flier who is certainly orbiter’s side hatch, an escape option via operational cargo flights. rooting for the commercial sector to de- that assumed the orbiter could achieve velop affordable—and, more important, stable, autopilot-guided gliding flight. Safety imperatives reliable—transportation to LEO. The en- We had no illusions about how un- As NASA’s Astronaut Office put it to the gineering state of the art can deliver sig- likely that scenario was. In a major in- Augustine committee in July, the agency nificantly better safety levels than the flight emergency, we thought at best that has had 50 years of experience getting shuttle, and we should design to that a few of us might make it out. A more ca- astronauts to and from orbit. NASA to- standard. Let the commercial firms pable escape capsule was never seriously day should thus be capable of building prove their system reliability by flying considered, as its weight and cost would systems that significantly reduce the risk cargo to the station, returning hardware be prohibitive given the few remaining of ascent and entry. Said the astronauts: from ISS, and even flying private pas- years before shuttle replacement. “Although flying in space will always in- sengers. When their record is proven Columbia was a terrible reminder of volve some measure of risk, it is our con- and their economic advantage is clear, the consequences of extending the shut- sensus that an order-of-magnitude reduc- NASA should move rapidly to purchase tle era well into the 21st century. But ISS tion in the risk of loss of human life crew transport services to LEO, devoting required the shuttle’s payload, EVA, and during ascent, compared to the space the saved dollars to exploration at the robotics capability. After the accident, shuttle, is both achievable with current Moon, near-Earth objects, and beyond. the Columbia Accident Investigation technology and consistent with NASA’s Decisions made now by the White Board recommended that the shuttle be focus on steadily improving rocket relia- House and NASA will later have life-or- retired as soon as practicable, that its bility, and should therefore represent a death consequences for my colleagues. successor separate crew from heavy minimum safety benchmark for future We must do this right. Thomas D.Jones cargo, and that it incorporate a robust systems.” [email protected] escape system. Nevertheless, shuttle The office argued that achieving www.AstronautTomJones.com

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Aircraftindustryridesout therecession…sofar

THEGLOBALECONOMYTOOKASERIESOF the jetliner industry will avoid some kind devastating shocks in 2008-2009, the of painful aftershock. The most likely first year without economic growth since scenario is that production cuts will be- WW II. With the exception of China and gin in earnest in the second half of this India, every major economic power saw year. These cuts will primarily afflict nar- its economy shrink, with high unemploy- rowbodies—Airbus’s A320 and Boeing’s ment and mounting deficits. All civil avia- 737 families. Together, these families tion market indicators suffered unprece- comprise over 55% of 2008-2009 deliv- dented drops, particularly for air cargo eries by value, the highest level in dec- traffic and business jet utilization. ades. Narrowbodies have seen the worst However, with a few exceptions, the drops in asset values and lease rates, yet world’s aircraft industries have so far are most dependent on low-margin do- avoided the pain associated with this mestic traffic. Teal Group’s forecast calls downturn. In fact, new aircraft deliveries for narrowbody production to fall by continued their upward rise, a trend al- one-third in 2011-2012. most uninterrupted since 2003. But Both of the big jetliner primes face there is a very strong chance that this challenges through the downturn. If year will be an inflection point, if not a Boeing finally succeeds in flying its 787 year of reckoning for the industry. Dreamliner and beginning deliveries in 2011, that will provide some level of in- The large jetliner question sulation from the drop in narrowbody Large commercial jetliners represent revenue. However, there are still major about half of the total 2009 market for challenges and uncertainties associated aircraft deliveries—$61.3 billion out of a with bringing this new product to mar- total aircraft market worth $121.8 bil- ket. As for Airbus, there is no hope of lion (in new deliveries alone). This is an additional revenue from an A380 ramp- Production cuts will begin in earnest in the 11.5% rise over 2008, but that number second half of this year and will primarily up. That product is marginally relevant is highly distorted by the impact of Boe- affect narrowbodies. in good times, and almost completely ing’s 52-day machinist strike in late unwanted in a downturn. The major 2008, which artificially reduced deliver- main at record high levels. A key enabler challenge for the company will be to ies that year by over 100 jets. of these high production rates has been keep funding development of the far In reality, jetliner production rates U.S. and European government export more important A350XWB. are treading water. Unfortunately, how- credit financing, which now assists with One part of the air transport busi- ever, there are no air travel market a record level of transactions. This might ness has already begun shrinking. The health indicators that justify this record be sustainable, but it clearly speaks to regional jet market, which spent the level of production. Passenger traffic is some fundamental weaknesses in the great 2003-2008 boom going exactly stabilizing after over a year of precipitous market, in terms of both demand and fi- nowhere, began contracting in 2009. drops, but it remains 6% under the peak nance availability. Most of the 2009 de- Given ongoing capacity cuts in the key level seen in January 2008. There are liveries financed by private banks and North American market, there is a near 2,490 jets parked in the desert, up from lessors were arranged before the credit certainty of further cuts in 2010, at least 1,681 in December 2007. At least 900 crunch transpired. While this crunch is for the two big legacy producers, Bom- of these parked aircraft are competitive easing, many key jetliner financiers re- bardier and Embraer. Next year should enough to return to service when de- main under heavy pressure, particularly see first deliveries of Sukhoi’s SuperJet, mand warrants. Lease rates and asset AIG’s ILFC unit, CIT, and the Royal to be followed by China’s ARJ21. values have fallen, even for newer equip- Bank of Scotland. ment. The International Air Transport In short, large jets are a lagging eco- Business jets suffer first Association anticipates $11 billion in in- nomic indicator. That market will avoid a While regional jets have suffered from a dustry losses for 2009, following nearly downturn commensurate with the hor- softened market, business jets have felt $17 billion the previous year. rors that befell the world’s economies in the full up-front impact of the downturn. Nonetheless, production rates re- 2008-2009, but there is no hope that While they usually are also a lagging eco-

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nomic indicator—deliveries lag corporate much higher share of profits—is largely profit changes by about 18 months—this immune from economic cycles, but there time the bottom half of the business jet are few doubts that military spending in market has fallen directly in line with the the key U.S. market has peaked. Politi- broader economy. cal sentiment is turning toward deficit re- Even excluding the VLJ (very light duction and social costs, particularly jet) segment, which has seen a precipi- health care. On the foreign policy front, tous drop since Eclipse went bankrupt interest in fighting two very expensive and ceased production in late 2008, wars, in Iraq and Afghanistan, is clearly business aircraft deliveries fell 22.5% by waning. This virtually guarantees that value in the first half of 2009 relative to the FY10 base budget is the highest we the first half of 2008, with a similar will see for years, at least in real terms. The UH-60 Black Hawk is a big winner in the defense budget. number forecast for the complete year. The FY10 base budget request hit a Yet when business aircraft delivery num- new post-Cold War peak of $550 billion As a result of this strong demand, bers are broken down by model, an un- (including funds for nuclear arms and the military helicopter market grew usual pattern emerges. Deliveries in the other non-DOD functions). However, 30.1% by revenue in 2009, with further bottom half of the market have declined supplemental spending packages, re- growth into this year. High levels of use by a remarkable 46.6% (also excluding quested by the administration or added guarantee strong profits for U.S. rotor- VLJs). Deliveries in the top half have ac- by Congress for warfighting purposes, craft primes and their supplier base. tually stayed almost constant. Dassault, are expected to shrink. In fact, with sup- The only aviation market that has the one business jet company that plays plemental funds, FY09’s total defense performed almost on par with military exclusively in the top half of the market, budget of $676 billion was down from helicopters over the past year is aircraft. actually plans on being the only manu- FY08’s $696 billion. However, this is due to a surge in Euro- facturer to increase jet output in 2009 It is also important to note that the fighter Tranche Two deliveries, after the relative to 2008. Obama administration has carried on the last few Tranche One planes were deliv- Curiously, this bottom-half market Bush administration’s refusal to use de- ered in 2008. Thus it is not a sustainable downturn does not appear to have af- fense spending as a form of economic trend. On the other hand, given strong fected turboprop models. Turboprop stimulus. As a result, the F-22 and VH- backing for F-35 funding and the ongo- production has declined by only 19% in 71 programs will die with the FY10 ing political popularity of Boeing’s F/A- the first half, a gentler drop than the budget. Without congressional interven- 18E/F, there is little risk of any signifi- broader business aircraft market decline tion, the C-17 program would have died cant market dip over the next five years, of 22.5%. The major turboprop produc- as well, terminating the last jet built in at least. ers are also keeping their production California. plans generally steady. This is purely a Military helicopters are an ongoing The promise of exports light and medium jet market collapse. bright spot in the defense budget. Most With the U.S. defense budget trending Civil helicopters have also begun to of the U.S. fleet has been badly worn out downward, U.S. primes will increasingly feel up-front pain. Corporate demand by combat operations in Iraq and Af- look to international markets for growth, has softened, and budget cuts in some ghanistan, and many allied military heli- or at least sustainment. They will be in state and local governments have threat- copter fleets are feeling a similar strain. good company. U.S. commercial com- ened to decrease law enforcement de- In the U.K., an inadequate helicopter panies have already reached record lev- mand. However, civil helicopters have force has become a major factor in the els of export reliance. The 238 compa- been boosted by surprisingly buoyant public debate over committing troops to nies of the S&P 500 are expected to prices for raw materials, particularly oil. Afghanistan. report that about 50% of their revenues This should limit the market’s downturn This makes mature production heli- to -13.3% in 2009. Given the market’s copter programs big winners. FY10 is record growth rates of 2003-2008, this notable as the first U.S. defense budget AIRCRAFT MARKET does not look like a major setback, al- in years that did not rely on supplemen- Type CAGR* ’03-’08 ‘08-’09 though anything that threatens govern- tal spending to provide necessary heli- Jetliners 6.8% 11.5% ment and homeland security budgets in copters. In previous budgets, the Army Business AC 17.1% -22.0% the coming years could make the situa- would request about 60 UH-60 Black Regionals 2.0% -20.0% Civil Rotorcraft 14.0% -13.3% tion worse. Hawks, and count on Congress to add Military Rotorcraft 11.5% 30.1% about 20 more in the supplemental pro- Fighters 6.6% 24.5% Defense holding up,for now cess. In FY10, the Army’s budget re- Military Transports 4.3% 7.6% The important military market—30% of quests 79 UH-60s, the highest number Total 7.9% 4.6%. 2009 aircraft deliveries by value, but a in over 15 years. *Compound annual growth rate.

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in 2009 came from export markets, up defense spending. from 43.6% in 2006. Boeing currently BAE Systems has suc- relies on exports for about 90% of its jet- ceeded in reinventing itself as a liner revenue. U.S. business jet manufac- transatlantic defense prime, and EADS turers, typically reliant on the U.S. for has scored several notable U.S. market The F/A-18E/F about 65% of their sales by revenue, victories, including the Army’s UH-72 stands the best now export the majority of their produc- Light Utility Helicopter. AgustaWestland chance of being selected to meet India’s tion by value. and EADS’s Eurocopter unit have made aircraft needs. Defense company reliance on export strides in securing military helicopter ex- runs counter to home market budgets. port orders at the expense of U.S. in- With a robust U.S. defense budget, cumbents, most notably in Australia, vvv fighter aircraft exports made up just 26% South Korea, and Turkey. The world aerospace industry saw some of deliveries by value in 2009. But in the Finally, U.S. defense primes will find very good numbers in 2009, despite the late 1990s, when U.S. and European some welcome opportunities abroad. economic downturn. Defense work at defense budgets were quite weak, export The biggest export fighter competition home and abroad will provide some in- deliveries comprised about 70% of the of all time, India’s 126 aircraft require- sulation from troubling commercial num- market by value. ment, will likely be decided in the next bers, but there is no doubt that 2010 U.S. companies looking to expand year or two, and Boeing’s F/A-18E/F and 2011 will see a decline in sales, un- their sales abroad will also find them- has the best chance of all six contenders. less the economy makes an unusually selves mirroring European companies Significant opportunities also exist in strong recovery. that have long been forced to seek ex- South Korea and the Middle East, where Richard Aboulafia port markets, particularly in the U.S., Saudi Arabia is reportedly considering a Teal Group because of low levels of home market 72-aircraft F-15 buy. [email protected]

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Futuretacticalcommunications: GettingtheJTRS

MODERN WARFARE AS FOUGHT BY THE U.S. of radios to provide joint-service, allied, networking waveform, will provide up to and its major allies is dependent upon and coalition interoperability (including 5 Mbps, and the joint airborne network- C4ISR (command, control, communica- signed agreements with Japan, the U.K., tactical edge will provide a still-unspeci- tions, computers, intelligence, surveil- and Sweden). fied but much greater capacity for air- lance, and reconnaissance). An ever-in- To satisfy these demands, JTRS has borne communications and data transfer. creasing amount of bandwidth-intensive improved networking, increased band- JTRS radios will use these new wave- data and video must be moved to, from, width, and emulation/interaction with forms, and will be able to operate on and across the battlefield. Yet U.S. legacy many different legacy radios that today multiple channels simultaneously. For ex- tactical communications links (radios) lack cannot intercommunicate. The system ample, a four-channel JTRS radio on a the capacity and flexibility to “achieve will also function as a router for tactical ground vehicle could be programmed to and maintain this level of information su- networks. have channels dedicated to SINCGARS, periority,” according to the GAO and A comparison of the most important EPLRS, the wideband networking wave- most services. legacy and next-generation tactical radio form, and the joint airborne network-tac- For the past decade, the planned so- waveforms shows significant differences. tical edge waveform. With a gateway de- lution to this deficiency has been the SINCGARS (single channel ground and vice, data can be transferred from one joint tactical radio system (JTRS). This airborne radio system)—today’s primary channel to another, providing a vital DOD family of common software-de- means of command and control for router and networking function encom- fined programmable radios will form the Army combat and support units, and the passing legacy and next-generation ra- foundation of future radio frequency in- most important tactical radio in the dios and ISR systems. formation transmission. Designed to in- world—has an extremely limited data teroperate with existing radio systems, transfer capability, not useful for trans- Airborne programs JTRS radios have additional capabilities, ferring maps, images, or video. The Today’s most important legacy aircraft including accessing maps and other vi- Army’s current battlefield digital data radio is the Rockwell Collins AN/ARC- sual data, communicating via voice and communications system, EPLRS (en- 210(V) multimode integrated communi- video, and obtaining information directly hanced position location reporting sys- cations system, an airborne transceiver from battlefield sensors. JTRS will pro- tem), has a data transfer rate more than for secure and nonsecure voice and data vide an Internet protocol-based capabil- 50 times greater, up to 1 Mbps—still in- communications. A joint service system, ity and is planned to replace all existing credibly slow by commercial standards. it links all branches of U.S. and NATO tactical radios with interoperable line-of- TADIL-J/Link 16, the waveform uti- forces, the civil air traffic control system, sight and beyond-line-of-sight radios. lized by the increasingly ubiquitous air- and land-mobile and maritime users. It is JTRS is built around an open soft- borne MIDS (multifunctional information the standard multimode radio for the ware communications architecture (SCA), distribution system) data link, has a simi- majority of U.S. combat aircraft, replac- allowing common software waveform lar, and still slow, data rate. Future JTRS ing 19 different existing radios in the applications to be used across the family ground vehicle radios, using a wideband Navy alone. With JTRS not yet ready,

TACTICAL RADIO WAVEFORMS Waveform Frequency, MHz Bandwidth,1 kHz Data rate, kbps Voice data rate, kbps

SINCGARS 30-88 25 .075-16 16 EPLRS 420-450 3,000 <1,000 High frequency 2.0-30 3, 6, 12 .075-9.6 .075-9.6 Have Quick 225-400 25 .075-16 16 TADIL-J2 960-1,215 3,000 28.8-1,137 2.4/16 UHF SATCOM DAMA3 225-400 5, 25 .075-56/64 .075-56/64 Wideband networking4 2-2,000 25-30,000 <5,000 Soldier radio5 2-2,000 13,000 <1,000 Joint airborne network-tactical edge 2-2,000 TBD TBD TBD Based on GAO-08-877, August 2008. 3Ultra-high-frequency satellite communications demand assigned multiple access. 1Nominal channel bandwidth. 4Four different waveforms in family; intended for ground vehicles. 2Tactical data information link-joint. 5Three different waveforms in family.

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TACTICAL RADIO FUNDING FORECAST RDT&E + Procurement $ Millions 2,500 2,319 2,215 2,206 2,142 2,155 2,186 2,200 2,062 2,109 2,116 2,000

Ten-Year 1,500 Totals

1,000

500

0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 JTRS ISCHR Other radios

the U.S. services have continued to pro- Solutions and ViaSat in 2004, is de- comprehensive next-generation airborne cure the ARC-210. signed to be plug-and-play interchange- solution—the airborne/maritime/fixed- In 2008, the Navy was funding able for Navy and Air Force platforms station JTRS program. In FY06 presys- ARC-210 upgrades to add capabilities that use MIDS-LVT, while accommodat- tem development and demonstration not included in the first JTRS increment, ing future JTRS technologies and capa- contracts were awarded to Boeing and such as the ability to host the JPALS bilities. The objective is to transform the Lockheed Martin, which won the $766- (joint precision approach and landing current MIDS-LVT into a four-channel, million development contract in April system) waveform. The service is also SCA-compliant JTRS, adding enhanced 2008. These radio/data links will even- modernizing the radio to address NSA throughput, link 16 frequency remap- tually be integrated onto UAVs, aircraft, requirements for cryptographic obsoles- ping and programmable crypto, while ships, submarines, and ground stations. cence in legacy radios. According to maintaining current link 16 and tactical Navy officials, the Navy plans to spend air navigation system functionality. War intervenes about $50 million in RDT&E for ARC- By December 2007, two Navy F/A- Ten years ago, DOD plans foresaw al- 210 modernization. 18s had been equipped with preproduc- most total dominance by JTRS, with the While the ARC-210 is primarily a ra- tion versions of MIDS-JTRS, and the services not even permitted to buy non- dio, and the aforementioned MIDS in- Navy planned to buy at least 441 sys- JTRS radios without a special waiver. cludes a secure voice channel, MIDS is tems for all F/A-18E/Fs and EA-18Gs. But the wars of the past decade have more important for the common naviga- Other planned platforms are Navy E-2D drastically changed these plans. Over tional grid it automatically creates for its Advanced Hawkeyes and Air Force B-1 the past several years, DOD funding for subscribers, providing situational aware- bombers and F-15E fighters. tactical radios has shifted dramatically, ness and command and control capabili- But another system is planned as the as JTRS development faced delays and ties. MIDS was developed by an interna- tional consortium, MIDSCO, led by the U.S. and including France, Germany, Italy, and Spain. In 1994, DOD awarded a $342-million EMD contract for the MIDS-LVT (low volume terminal), today serving aboard the F-15, F-16, F/A-18, Rafale, Eurofighter, and many other plat- forms. Production began around the be- ginning of the decade and continues. MIDS-JTRS, with $140 million in RDT&E contracts awarded to Data Link

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JTRS PLANNED PROCUREMENT HISTORY (Current Procurement by Service) JTRS Initial Approved Restructured Current Radios Procurement Procurement (2006) Procurement (2008) Army USAF Navy USMC

Ground mobile 108,086 138,913 86,512 86,209 93 0 210 Handheld, manpack, small form fit 328,514 164,137 95,551 74,512 10,680 1,477 8,882 Airborne, maritime, fixed station N/A 17,007 11,040 5,845 4,725 470 0 Total 436,600 320,057 193,103 166,566 15,498 1,947 9,092

as active wars required immediate re- vestment strategy for future tactical com- for JTRS, but it is capable of running placement of older tactical radios (in- munications. Increased JTRS costs and multiple legacy waveforms, and it meets cluding some Vietnam-era radios still in the presence of hundreds of thousands of NSA security modernization require- the Army National Guard and Reserves). new legacy radios (expected to have a ments. The big change will be a drastic Changes in tactics and the U.S. concept useful life of 10-15 years) mean the serv- reduction in the wartime-funded legacy of operations also brought many more ices have been scaling back their planned radios, which has already begun. The radios to ground forces. These increases purchases. The Marine Corps has essen- JTRS/legacy funding ratio may never in the total number of radios were filled tially dropped JTRS ground mobile radio return to the DOD plans of 2002 by shifting and increasing funds to buy procurement plans, preferring to con- (92.7%/7.3%), but the ratio will change hundreds of thousands of legacy radios tinue buying legacy radios until JTRS is back to favor JTRS. (led by SINCGARS), and by decreasing proven. The Navy and Marines have also JTRS will have combined annual JTRS funding. dropped most of their airborne JTRS re- growth rates of 6.7% (FY09-FY14) and From FY03 to FY07, DOD spent an quirements, instead continuing procure- 7.4% (FY09-FY18); ISCHR will have estimated $12 billion on tactical radios, ment of ARC-210s, which are much -5.2% and -16.4% (with an interim pro- more than it spent on Virginia-class sub- cheaper and provide a voice channel that duction surge between now and FY14); marines ($10.8 billion) and the Future initial AMF JTRS radios will not. But and all other radios taken together will Combat System ($10.4 billion) in the legacy radio procurements will also fall as same period and a dramatic increase needs are met. over the $3.2 billion planned in 2002. JTRS was originally intended to re- TACTICAL RADIO MARKET SHARE JTRS funding decreased from just under place most or all legacy tactical radios, FY09-FY18 Value, FY09 $Billions $3 billion to $2.5 billion, with no systems but with the total number of radios in produced aside from an enhanced legacy service now greatly increased, it will pre- handheld radio. Legacy radio funding in- sumably take over higher end network- creased from only $235 million planned ing applications, with newer legacy ra- (after a 1998 virtual ban on new pro- dios continuing to serve at other levels curements of legacy radios) to $5.7 bil- for a decade or more. Planned procure- lion for the Army ($4.1 billion) and the ment numbers show that the low-end Marines ($1.6 billion). War supplemental handheld JTRS has already dropped funding bought most of these radios. from 328,514 units to only 95,551. Availability and transfer of informa- Since the need for improved C4ISR tion are vital in modern warfare, and ac- will undoubtedly continue to grow, as cess to tactical communications has wid- ISR and other needs require exponen- ened to lower and lower levels, with tially increasing bandwidths and net- current soldier radios equivalent to the working capabilities, we see today’s al- squad radios of a few years ago. A typi- ready-reduced 10-year JTRS procure- cal rifle company of around 180 Marines ment numbers holding or increasing as had about nine tactical radios before the production ramps up (especially if unit war in Iraq; it now has about 225, with costs drop significantly). most for intrasquad communications. Thus, Teal Group forecasts a contin- have -13.4% and -6.8% (because of still- Also, nearly every vehicle used in com- uation of substantial JTRS funding, with substantial pre-JTRS SINCGARS, ARC- bat operations has a radio, a necessity further increases as production begins in 210, and other legacy funding today). now that U.S. support vehicles are no- volume over the next decade. In the Our forecasts are necessarily some- where safe in occupied countries. meantime—for the next five years or so— what speculative, as the FY10 budget transitional radios such as Harris and provides no funding requests beyond Current plans and forecasts Thales’ interim single-channel, handheld FY10 and, as the GAO pointed out, With war supplemental funding expected radios (ISCHR) will continue to receive DOD does not itself have definite plans to disappear after this fiscal year, the massive funding. ISCHR does not pro- for total radio requirements. Our fore- U.S. no longer has a comprehensive in- vide the networking capabilities intended casts are based to a significant degree on

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the current contracts, many of which are the next decade, spread among at least the past several decades, will struggle in long term and give an idea of production four top manufacturers. Teal Group sees a post-SINCGARS future, with its mar- at least for the next five years. the tactical communications market re- ket share dwindling to almost nothing as Beyond our forecast period, what maining more competitive than many JTRS ramps up, unless it can secure an- will happen when the 2003-2007 Iraq/ other defense electronics markets, espe- other major production program. On a Afghanistan supplemental radio surge cially as high-volume products such as ra- smaller scale, Rockwell produces the ages is very much in question. Will JTRS dios often offer cost-based contracting ARC-210, and Raytheon builds the AN/ finally be cheap enough to replace tacti- that is recompeted or reassigned every PSC-5D TACSAT satellite radio. cal radios across the spectrum of appli- year (as ISCHR is planned). Finally, note that some fairly impor- cations? Possibly, but not with current or Of the top four firms, Boeing and tant players lurk in our ‘Other’ funding currently planned radios. We suspect Lockheed Martin will rely largely on forecast, including Motorola. Also, in ad- new technology and miniaturization may JTRS for their positions (Boeing also dition to contracts for major efforts, make a new generation of small, cheap builds the legacy combat handheld air- some companies may earn considerable radios possible. But costs will have to be crew survival radio), while Thales and additional funding from smaller radio no more (and possibly less) than unit Harris are the top non-SINCGARS leg- programs, as well as RDT&E funding. costs during the massive 2003-2007 re- acy radio producers, and the co-primes Thus, all the funding forecasts for Boe- capitalization. Today’s radios may soldier for ISCHR. ing through Raytheon are low-end esti- on for decades. Below these four, General Dynamics mates, and all these companies will likely is prime for the JTRS HMS, and the earn more funding from other programs. Competitors now-legacy digital modular radio. ITT, David L.Rockwell In terms of competitor market shares, we the SINCGARS prime and one of the Contributing writer see a near-equal share of funding over most important radio manufacturers of [email protected]

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SeekingotherEarths

NASA’s Kepler spacecraft will search for dreds of planets the size of Earth or light appears to dim slightly, or wink. worlds that could host life. It is the first larger at various distances from their The telescope can detect even the mission with the ability to find planets stars. If Earth-size planets are common faintest of these winks, registering similar to Earth—rocky planets that orbit in the habitable zone, Kepler could find changes in brightness of only 20 parts Sun-like stars in a warm zone where liq- dozens. If they are rare, it might find per million. To achieve this resolution, uid water could be maintained on the none. Kepler will use the largest camera ever surface. Liquid water is believed to be es- In the end, the mission will be our launched into space, a 95-megapixel ar- sential for the formation of life. first step toward answering a question: ray of charge coupled devices. “Kepler is a critical component in Are there other worlds like ours, or are “If Kepler were to look down at a NASA’s broader efforts to ultimately find we alone? small town on Earth at night from space, and study planets where Earth-like con- “Finding that most stars have Earths it would be able to detect the dimming of ditions may be present,” says Jon implies that the conditions that support a porch light as somebody passed in Morse, the Astrophysics Division direc- the development of life could be common front,” says James Fanson, Kepler proj- tor at NASA Headquarters in Washing- throughout our galaxy,” says William ect manager at JPL in Pasadena, Calif. ton, D.C. “The planetary census Kepler Borucki, Kepler’s science principal in- By staring at one large patch of sky takes will be very important for under- vestigator at NASA Ames. “Finding few for the duration of its lifetime, Kepler will standing the frequency of Earth-size or no Earths indicates that we might be be able to watch planets periodically planets in our galaxy and planning future alone.” transit their stars, over multiple cycles. missions that directly detect and charac- This will allow astronomers to confirm terize such worlds around nearby stars.” Designed for detection the presence of planets. Earth-size plan- Kepler was launched from Cape The Kepler telescope is specially de- ets in habitable zones would theoretically Canaveral AFS, Fla., aboard a Delta II signed to detect the periodic dimming of take about a year to complete one orbit. rocket on March 6, 2009. The mission stars, caused by planets as they pass by. To confirm the presence or absence will spend three-and-a-half years survey- Some star systems are oriented in such a of such planets, Kepler will monitor ing more than 100,000 Sun-like stars in way that their planets cross in front of those stars for at least three years. the Cygnus-Lyra region of our Milky their stars, from our earthly point of Ground-based telescopes and NASA’s Way galaxy. It is expected to find hun- view. As the planets pass, their stars’ Hubble and Spitzer space telescopes will

The Kepler spacecraft, shown during its preparation for launch, is now searching for planets. Credit: NASA and Ball Aerospace.

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perform follow-up studies on the larger planet has a circular orbit. The planets. discovery of light from this “Kepler is a critical cornerstone in planet confirms the predic- understanding what types of planets are tions by researchers and theo- formed around other stars,” says exo- retical models that the emis- planet hunter Debra Fischer of San sion would be detectable by Francisco State University. “The discov- Kepler. eries that emerge will be used immedi- This new discovery also ately to study the atmospheres of large demonstrates that Kepler has gas exoplanets with Spitzer. And the sta- the precision to find Earth-size tistics that are compiled will help us chart planets. The observed bright- a course toward one day imaging a pale ness variation is just one-and- blue dot like our planet, orbiting another a-half times what is expected star in our galaxy.” for a transit caused by an Earth-sized planet. Although Early payoff Chart compares the ground- and space-based light curves for this is already the highest pre- In August 2009, a few months after its exoplanet HAT-P-7b. The small drop in light called an occultation cision ever obtained for an ob- occurs when the planet passes behind its star. Image credit: NASA. launch, the Kepler space telescope de- servation of this star, Kepler tected the atmosphere of a known giant will be even more precise after gas planet, demonstrating the tele- closer to it than Earth is to the Sun. Its analysis software being developed for scope’s extraordinary scientific capabili- orbit, combined with a mass somewhat the mission is completed. ties. The discovery was published in the larger than that of the planet Jupiter, “This early result shows the Kepler journal Science. classifies this planet as a “hot Jupiter.” It detection system is performing right on The find is based on a relatively short is so close to its star that the planet is as the mark,” says David Koch, deputy 10 days of test data collected before the hot as the glowing red heating element principal investigator at NASA Ames. “It official start of science operations. The on a stove. bodes well for Kepler’s prospects to be observation demonstrates the extremely The Kepler measurements show the able to detect Earth-size planets.” high precision of the measurements transit from the previously detected Kepler is a NASA Discovery mission. made by the telescope, even before its HAT-P-7. However, these new measure- Ames is the home organization of the calibration and data analysis software ments are so precise that they also show science principal investigator, and is re- were finished. a smooth rise and fall of the light “As NASA’s first exoplanets mission, between transits caused by the Kepler has made a dramatic entrance on changing phases of the planet, the planet-hunting scene,” says Morse. similar to those of our Moon. “Detecting this planet’s atmosphere in This is a combination of the just the first 10 days of data is only a light emitted from and reflected taste of things to come. The planet hunt off the planet. The smooth rise is on!” and fall of light is also punctu- Kepler team members say these new ated by a small drop in light, data indicate the mission is indeed capa- called an occultation, exactly ble of finding Earth-like planets, if they halfway through each transit. exist. An occultation happens when a “When the light curves from tens of planet passes behind a star. thousands of stars were shown to the The new Kepler data can be Kepler science team, everyone was used to study this hot Jupiter awed. No one had ever seen such ex- in unprecedented detail. The quisitely detailed measurements of the depth of the occultation and the light variations of so many different shape and amplitude of the light types of stars,” says Borucki, the paper’s curve show the planet has an at- lead author. mosphere with a day-side tem- As you zoom into a small portion of Kepler’s full field of The observations were collected perature of about 4,310 F. view, at the center is a star with a known hot Jupiter planet, from a planet called HAT-P-7, known to Little of this heat is carried TrES-2, zipping closely around it every 2.5 days. The area is to the cool night side. The oc- one-thousandth of Kepler’s full field of view, and shows transit a star located about 1,000 light- hundreds of stars at the very edge of the constellation Cygnus. years from Earth. The planet orbits the cultation time compared to the The image is color-coded so that brighter stars appear white, star in just 2.2 days and is 26 times main transit time shows the fainter stars, red. Image credit: NASA/Ames/JPL-Caltech.

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sponsible for the ground system develop- all the planets discovered so far appear seismology of a wide variety of stars. ment, mission operations, and science to be gas giants similar to our Jupiter In October 2009 Astronomy & As- data analysis. JPL manages the Kepler and Saturn. trophysics published a special issue ded- mission development. Ball Aerospace & However, Boss adds that the past icated to the early results from COROT. Technologies in Boulder, Colo., is re- few years have witnessed the discovery The mission was developed and is oper- sponsible for developing the Kepler flight of over a dozen planets with much lower ated by the French space agency CNES, system and also for supporting mission masses, in the range of 5-20 times that with the participation of ESA’s RSSD operations. of the Earth—masses comparable to and science programs, Austria, Belgium, For more information about the Kep- those of our ice giant planets, Uranus Brazil, Germany, and Spain. ler mission, visit: http://www.nasa.gov/ and Neptune. It is not yet clear if these So far, seven exoplanets have been kepler smaller mass planets are ice giants or discovered in the COROT data and con- perhaps rocky planets similar in compo- firmed by ground-based follow-up cam- The bigger picture sition to the Earth, but with much more paigns. The difficulty with this exoplanet Providing additional perspective on the mass—that is, super-Earths. The latter hunting is that it requires a long process search for living planets, Alan Boss, affil- possibility would be tantalizing evidence of deciphering the candidates and finally iated with the Carnegie Institution for that Earths are common. characterizing a few stars hosting planets Science, Washington, D.C., says that we European space agencies and NASA among tens of thousands. entered a new era of human understand- have launched and planned an array of The most exciting, and now famous, ing of our universe following a major ad- space-based telescopes that will carry out planet-hosting star is named COROT-7. vance that occurred in 1995: the discov- this search in the next several decades. The discovery of COROT-7b, the small- ery of planetary systems around stars est exoplanet ever found, was announced other than the Sun. COROT’s results in February 2009 during the first Speaking at the February 2009 The French-led COROT Mission and COROT international symposium. Scien- meeting of the American Association for NASA’s Kepler are searching for evi- tists measured the mass of the planet— the Advancement of Science in Chicago, dence of Earth-mass planets by relying five Earth masses—using additional he pointed out that roughly 300 planets on the transit technique, whereby the ground-based measurements. They cal- have been found outside our solar sys- presence of a planet is inferred from the culated its density (about 5.6 g/cm3), tem to date, ranging from the fairly fa- tiny dimming of starlight it causes as it showing that COROT-7b, like Earth, is miliar to the weirdly unexpected. Nearly passes in front of its star. COROT and rocky. This is the first rocky exoplanet Kepler are likely to provide our first firm confirmed to date. Scientists also discov- estimates of the frequency with which ered a second planet in the COROT-7 habitable Earth-like planets are distrib- system. Now known as COROT-7c, it is uted in our neighborhood of the galaxy. another super-Earth exoplanet of about 8 Once that frequency is known, Boss Earth masses. adds, scientists can design specialized Detection of the secondary transit of space telescopes that can image these COROT-1b provides an example of the new worlds and tell us whether their at- accuracy of COROT’s data when the mospheres show evidence of the mole- planet passes behind its star. This is a cules necessary for life (such as water real challenge, because the amplitude of and oxygen), and possibly even evidence such an event is about 100 parts per mil- of those created by life (methane). lion. Comparing the depths of both tran- He points out that we will then know sits provides information on the albedo if any of the nearby stars harbor planets of the planet, hence on the nature of its that are habitable and perhaps even in- atmosphere. habited. We will know just how crowded the universe really is. Seismology of stars Some early results of the COROT COROT’s primary goal is not only to space mission are remarkable. The hunt exoplanets, but also to study the COROT (convection, rotation, and plan- seismology of stars. This part of the mis- etary transits) satellite is a 30-cm space sion is also a major step forward. Several telescope launched on December 27, scientists are working to detect and The star COROT-7 is located at a distance of about 500 light-years. Slightly smaller and 2006, from Baikonur, Russia. Since measure solar-like oscillations in distant cooler than our Sun, CoRoT-7 (in the center then it has been orbiting at about 900 stars. COROT shows that the oscillations of the image) is also thought to be younger, km from the Earth, monitoring the are generally more complicated than with an age of about 1.5 billion years. It is changes in brightness of a huge number those of the Sun, which poses new prob- now known to have two planets, one of them (COROT-7b) being the first to be found with a of stars with unprecedented accuracy. lems of interpretation. Such oscillations density similar to that of Earth. (Copyright: This aims at both detecting exoplanets have also been detected and quantified ESO/Digitized Sky Survey.) by the transit method and studying the for the first time in many red giants, us-

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lite observed a Be star during an outburst spots in the stars’ photospheres, giving phase and measured the change in the access to their rotation rate. In some oscillation spectrum during this rare cases, it is even possible to detect the lat- event. A Be star is a B-type star that itude dependence of the rotation rate. shows hydrogen emission lines. The B Significant progress in the modeling of spectral type includes luminous, white- fast-rotating stars will help in under- blue stars, with surface temperatures of standing the new data. 10,000-30,000 C. Typical Be stars are The COROT satellite has been orbit- rapidly rotating, variable bodies. Acher- ing the Earth for nearly three years and nar (a Eridani), the ninth brightest star in will be operated until 2013. Already it the sky, is a famous Be star. These ob- has been a pioneering mission that has servations gave insight into the nature of led to major insights in both exoplane- The field of view is seen at the frontier between the explosion. It will help in solving a tary and asteroseismic domains. Aquila and Serpens Cauda. Alya is an appropriate question that has been pending for An even more ambitious mission, seamark to precisely locate the sky surveyed by years: Are oscillations the cause of the the ESA project PLATO, is still under COROT. outburst? assessment as part of the ESA Cosmic Vision program for 2015-2025. PLATO ing data from the exoplanet search pro- Stellar physics will be able to combine the detailed gram. The physical processes responsible Although primarily devoted to asteroseis- study of the stellar interior and of the for these complex oscillations are now mology and exoplanet search, COROT planetary environment of tens of thou- understood. also addresses many important topics in sands of bright stars. COROT’s observations of hot stars stellar physics. Several scientists who Edward D.Flinn also gave astonishing results. The satel- deal with stellar activity have detected [email protected]

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Small Explorers with big benefits Although the public’s attention usually focuses on larger spacecraft with high-profile missions, it is often NASA’s small satellites that make the most surprising and useful discoveries. Fast-track schedules, low launch costs, and mission flexibility are among the key benefits of these innovative Small Explorer spacecraft.

NASA’s purpose is to push the frontiers of exploration and knowl- edge in aviation and space. Public attention, however, focuses mainly on the agency’s big, expensive space efforts—manned lunar missions, robotic explo- rations of the planets, moons, asteroids, and comets in our solar system, and specialized telescopes seeking other Earth-like planets in our galaxy or previ- ously undiscovered galaxies in the universe. However, some of the most useful—and surprising—discoveries in NASA’s five-decade history have come from small satellites, often sent aloft via small, inexpensive launchers or tacked onto large rockets when space was available. While such missions have been part of the NASA portfolio from the beginning, since 1992 they have been formalized in four categories of Explorers programs: •Medium-class Explorers (MIDEX): Their missions do not exceed $180 mil- lion (in FY02 dollars) and are under the direction of a principal investigator (PI). •Small Explorers (SMEX): Their PI-led missions do not exceed $105 million (in FY08 dollars). •Missions of Opportunity (MoOs): These are non-NASA space missions of any size, having a NASA cost of less than $70 million (in FY08 dollars). MoOs are conducted on a no-exchange-of-funds basis with the organization sponsor- ing the mission. Proposals are solicited in each announcement of opportunity by J.R.Wilson issued for both SMEX and MIDEX investigations. Contributing writer •University-class Explorers (UNEX): The least expensive of the lot, these are

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This sky map was produced with data that two detectors on the IBEX satellite collected during six months of observations. The detectors measured and counted particles scientists refer to as energetic neutral atoms.

launched by a variety of low-cost methods. NASA currently has suspended UNEX missions for lack of inexpensive launch opportunities.

Breaking new ground The first SMEX mission was the Solar Anomalous and Magnetospheric Par- ticle Explorer (SAMPEX), launched on July 3, 1992, by a Scout rocket. SAMPEX quickly entered the history books with the discovery of a new belt of trapped interstellar heavy nuclei circling the Earth within the inner Van Allen radiation belt—itself discovered by NASA’s Explorer I satellite in 1958. SMEX satellites have relied on the least expensive launch vehicles avail- able, primarily the Orbital Sciences Pegasus rocket, which is first carried aloft with its payload by a Lockheed L-1011 converted for that purpose. The Pegasus is dropped from the aircraft, then ignites its own rocket to lift its payload into LEO. IBEX, the Interstellar Boundary Explorer, launched on October 19, 2008, featured an innovation that broke new ground for future SMEX mis- sions: A separate solid rocket motor (SRM) was attached to the satellite, en- abling it to move from LEO to the near-lunar orbit required for its mission. “Pegasus can fly about 1,000 lb to LEO; we used about 70% of that for the extra rocket and put a 300-lb IBEX satellite on top of that, basically us- ing Pegasus as a first stage,” IBEX PI Dave McComas tells Aerospace Amer-

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ica. “So now there is a proven launch capabil- ning to really understand our place in the ity other small science missions can use. We galaxy,”said McComas following the October were only about 10 lb away from leaving 2009 release of the sky map image. “The Earth orbit, so the same launch technique IBEX results are truly remarkable, with a nar- could be used to get to L-1 or the Moon, or row ribbon of bright details or emissions not even other planets. That’s a really cool side- resembling any of the current theoretical mod- line of this, developing a new launch capabil- els of this region.” ity for NASA as part of our Small Explorers IBEX has two sensors, IBEX Hi program. Managing for success (seen here) and IBEX Lo. Each “It took a lot of effort. We bought two Although McComas’ team went further than time an energetic neutral atom comes into one of the sensors, SRMs, testing one and flying the second, and most, having full responsibility for every as- it is recorded; at the end of six had to figure out a lot of rocketry rarely done pect of a SMEX mission is part of the job de- months of that data scientists by science teams—maybe never done by a sci- scription for a PI. will have a picture of the entire 360° longitude celestial sphere. ence team before. Orbital was the lead on that “The PI formulates and manages the mis- (Photo courtesy Southwest work, although we also worked on it and sion. We’ll provide support to the PI in any Research Institute.) brought in other experts as well. We were the way we can, such as providing expertise he prime, they were our subcontractor, so we re- may not have and backing him up with that tained overarching responsibility.” resource, but the PI is really the architect of the mission, from the science to implementa- Mapping the heliosphere tion,” says Joe Dezio, Explorers deputy pro- IBEX’s science objective was to discover the gram manager at NASA Goddard. “One of nature of the interactions between the solar our functions is to pass the budget on to him wind and the interstellar medium at the as the logistics interface with the [NASA] edge of our solar system. It con- Headquarters line item budget. ducted the first complete map- “Our job is to make him suc- ping of the heliosphere, a pro- cessful. Period. But there is tective boundary of solar wind one caveat—while it is the traveling at 1 million mph PI’s mission and team, as SAMPEX, launched by a Scout and preventing about 90% long as taxpayer money is rocket, was the first SMEX of galactic radiation from involved, we have to be ac- mission. entering the solar system. countable for the success IBEX used two energetic and application of that neutral atom (ENA) sensors— funding, so we still have one on each side of the space- what we call technical author- craft, perpendicular to its Sun- ity on the mission. We can’t just pointed spin axis—to measure walk away from the PI. Through- particles coming in from the edge out the effort, we support all the re- of the solar system, roughly 100 times farther views and have our own standing review out than the Earth is from the Sun. teams mixed in with the PI’s. So it is a bit of a As the spacecraft spun at four rpm, the strange mix—the PI’s team and architecture, ENA measurements were converted to pixels, but we still have technical authority and must building a crescent-shaped piece of the map. follow developments closely enough to assure As it tracked the Sun, the sensors’ circular everyone it will be successful on orbit.” swaths moved across the sky, gradually creat- Speed is key to a SMEX mission, which ing a complete image of the heliosphere and typically seeks to use the best available tech- its interaction with interstellar radiation. nology to learn something new before an- Without the heliosphere, radiation levels other generation of technology passes it by. would make manned spaceflight, even to As a result, the ideal SMEX concept takes Earth’s Moon, extremely dangerous, if not im- about 36 months from initial proposal to possible, according to McComas, who is assis- launch, compared to an average of seven tant vice president of the Space Science and years for a standard NASA satellite program. Engineering Division of the Southwest Re- “We like to see about 2.5 years’ develop- search Institute in San Antonio, Texas. ment time, although sometimes it takes a bit McComas compares the IBEX map to an longer,” says Richard Fisher, director of the artisan weaving a colorful pattern on a loom, Heliophysics Division of NASA’s Science Mis- one thread at a time. sion Directorate, which is responsible for ap- “For the first time, we’re sticking our proving Explorer missions. “The launch vehi- heads out of the Sun’s atmosphere and begin- cles are at the 200-kg level for total payload,

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which usually means a single instrument or set than larger satellites requiring more expensive of sensors, such as particle sensors, and a sim- launchers. They also tend to have shorter ac- plified data stream with one instrument or in- tive life spans—typically only one or two years, strument suite. although McComas believes IBEX may have “The payloads that have been selected enough reserve fuel to continue mapping op- have been pretty much equally divided be- erations for a full decade. tween astrophysics and heliophysics or space science. SMEX is operated out of the Helio- Birth of a mission physics Division, but for the benefit of both A Small Explorer begins with a NASA an- groups. However, the program is not shared nouncement of opportunity, usually including in that the missions go from one to the other.” several missions in the SMEX or MIDEX range. Scientists then submit proposals for Outside the box peer review, both within NASA and by non- Unlike larger NASA missions, which are cho- NASA experts in the related fields. sen on the basis of how well they fit into the “They make a judgment about cutting- national goals and priorities identified about edge science that is technically feasible. Once every 10 years by the National Academy of that determination is made, the associate ad- Sciences, the Explorers program is designed ministrator for science will look at the distilled The early Explorer missions were to allow outside scientists to propose the sci- evidence and make a selection,” Fisher ex- launched on less expensive ence to be investigated. More often than not, plains. “We like to offer a range of sizes of rockets like the Scout. that involves rapidly following up on a new dis- flight opportunity, from suborbital with high- covery or theory and, often, finding something altitude balloons and sounding rockets up to no one had expected or thought to explore. MoOs and SMEX and MIDEX. “IBEX, for example, is a unique mission “It is not uncommon for scientific knowl- attempting to image the protective bubble that edge to change from one mission to the next, shields us from cosmic radiation and particles and the scientific community is extremely from the galaxy. My view is this relatively good at evaluating and imaginative in using small, rapidly done experiment will change whatever opportunities there are. So people textbooks forever. That’s an example of a will propose the best science, which shows up good SMEX mission—and something not part in various places. You also get a lot of cross- of a national goal identified by the decadal sur- fertilization, where an investigator may submit vey,” says Fisher. a proposal that is rejected, for whatever rea- But not being part of the formal NASA son, then improve it until it is highly honed research program also has its drawbacks. and focused.” “We have gone through a bit of a dry For the last competition, 49 proposals spell for access to space to be in the right were deemed compliant with all stated require- price range for Explorer missions,” Dezio ments—17 MoOs and 32 SMEXs. A second notes. “We got used to Scout and Delta vehi- competition reduced that to six chosen for a Today, Pegasus and Falcon 1 are cles, which were modestly priced, from $50 concept development, SMEX study along with two options for launching SMEX million to $70 million in the 1990s, which about a half-dozen MoOs. satellites. was a reasonable price for access to space. “At that point, you have Back then, we scheduled about one every 12- about 20% of the SMEX pro- 18 months. posals still in play. Now we will “In the past few years, the Pegasus vehicle have to make a decision about has become one of the workhorses for the downselecting to one to three smaller missions. And there is competition of those,” Fisher says. “That coming into play with the Falcon [privately de- will depend on a number of veloped by SpaceX], which is adding to the ac- things, including future obliga- cess to space. And, of course, the [Orbital Sci- tions of the program, which is ences] Taurus is developing, taking the smaller basically an economic prob- end of the [retiring] Delta II market, and Mino- lem. You also don’t want to taur [ICBMs converted for civilian launches by stretch things out, because the Orbital], which may be a little more capable science may become obsolete than the Taurus. There may be more coming the longer you wait, so there is down the road, but Falcon and Pegasus are a balance between the time for the only viable ones we have now.” development, funding rate, Because of their comparatively low cost, and science.” SMEX missions are given more leeway on risk (Continued on page 41)

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NASA’s Kepler spacecraft,which is seeking Earth-like planets orbiting stars in the Milky Way,began as an unlikely candidate for success.But unusual persistence by the project’s principal investigator has paid off, and the spacecraft has already proven its capability with its first successful detection of such a planet.

ow far from Earth in a heliocentric or- can precisely measure the slightest changes in bit is NASA’s Kepler spacecraft. This their brightness caused by planets.” N sharp-eyed probe is designed to spot Making use of a 0.95-m-diam. telescope Earth-size planets in or near the habitable and an array of 42 charge-coupled devices, zone of their parent stars. A planet residing in Kepler serves as a very fancy light meter, or that not-too-cold, not-too-hot precinct is a world photometer. From its orbit, the craft can on which liquid water could exist. And where measure brightness changes in a parent star there is water, so too might there be life. as a planet transits across its face. From that Kepler’ssearch for Earth-like planets

As NASA’s first mission capable of find- light fluctuation in starlight—and time between ing such planets, the census-taking Kepler transits—scientists can deduce the size of the rocketed into space atop a Delta 2 booster on planet, even the size of its orbit, and make a March 6 from Cape Canaveral AFS, Fla. ballpark estimate of the planet’s temperature. But Kepler is not just a success story. It is Kepler is in a sense a finder-scope, locat- also a tale of cost overruns, near-cancellation, ing candidate planets that can then become squabbles over its technological readiness, and the target for Earth-based observations to rule a heavy dose of sheer persistence. Call it the out false-positive detections. little spacecraft that could…and is. Building Kepler has meant tackling a suite of key requirements: pointing accuracy, a very Staring contest large field of view, and low-noise electronics It is no easy assignment taking on the cen- to maximize the ability to read data from the turies-old aspiration to discern other worlds sensitive detection system. similar to our own. Thanks to ground- and Ball Aerospace & Technologies devel- space-based observations, hundreds of planets oped the Kepler flight system and supports orbiting other stars have already been discov- mission operations. And while Kepler almost ered. At present there is clear evidence for did not have its day in the Sun, the spacecraft three types of exoplanets: gas giants, hot su- has already displayed its brilliance. per-Earths in short-period orbits, and ice gi- ants. But Kepler’s task is to detect terrestrial First find planets ranging from one-half to twice the size In an August 6 NASA science briefing, Kepler of Earth. The spacecraft will gaze at a patch officials joyously announced that the exo- of space for indications of Earth-size planets planet-hunting spacecraft had detected the at- moving around stars similar to our Sun. The mosphere of a known giant gas planet, dem- search space contains some 100,000 such onstrating the telescope’s skill in meeting its stars. Kepler is specifically designed to survey scientific objectives. our region of the Milky Way galaxy. Kepler’s observations were collected from “If Kepler got into a staring contest, it a planet called HAT-P-7, known to transit a would win,” says James Fanson, Kepler proj- star located about 1,000 light-years from ect manager at NASA’s JPL in Pasadena, Earth. The planet orbits the star in just 2.2 by Leonard David Calif. “The spacecraft is ready to stare intently days and is 26 times closer to it than Earth is Contributing writer at the same stars for several years so that it to our Sun. Because of this proximity, and be-

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The center of Kepler’s photometer features a focal plane array of 42 CCDs. See a NASA animation of the optical path for the photometer at http://www.aerospaceamerica.org

cause its mass is slightly greater than the largest planet in Earth’s solar system, HAT-P- 7 is classified as a “hot Jupiter,” with temper- atures as high as the glowing red heating ele- ment on a stove. “We are seeing a new discovery…the first time anyone has ever seen light from this planet. And we can use that light to under- stand the physics of its atmosphere,” notes William Borucki, Kepler science principal in- vestigator at NASA Ames. For 17 years he has worked to prove that Kepler is a workable proposition. Borucki says Kepler’s quest to determine the distribution of Earth-size planets is just a step, with more strides to follow, “in our ex- ploration of the galaxy, to find out if there is other life out there.” Sara Seager, professor of planetary sci- ence and physics at MIT, was equally de- lighted. “This data today is just the tip of the iceberg…where discoveries will come much more rapidly than they have in the last 10 years,” she said, also noting that exoplanet detection over that period has already been fast paced. Taking part in the NASA science press conference, Alan Boss, an astrophysicist in the Dept. of Terrestrial Magnetism at the Car- negie Institution in Washington, D.C., gave kudos to Kepler. “We know now that Kepler can do it,” Boss reported. “The question that remains is how many Earths are actually out there for Kepler to find? But the bottom line, the real headline for this whole press confer- ence, is that Kepler works,” he stated. “The discovery of the optical light from HAT-P-7 proves that Kepler can find the tran- sit of Earth-like planets. Now we have to wait for Kepler to do its job,” Boss said.

Light curves over time Kepler is a NASA Discovery mission costing $590 million. Overall, the spacecraft and its built-in photometer are about 2.7 m in diame- ter, and the craft measures some 4.5 m high— about as big as some shuttle buses. Its primary

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carried out at Ball Aerospace & Technologies. “Kepler is being nice and boring right now,” according to John Troeltzsch, Kepler mission program manager at Ball Aerospace. “We’re up there taking the data, storing it… doing our mission. The whole vehicle is very healthy. We have good signal margin,” he told Aerospace America in an August interview. Over its 3.5-year mission, Kepler will seek planets 30-600 times less massive than Jupiter. Given that Earth-size worlds do in- deed exist around stars like our Sun, Kepler is This image zooms into a small expected to be the first to find them, and the portion of Kepler's full field of view—an expansive patch of first to quantify their distribution. Mission life- sky in our Milky Way galaxy. time can be extended to at least six years. An eight-billion-year-old cluster While there are no Hubble Space Tele- of stars 13,000 light-years from scope-like images flooding out of Kepler, its Earth can be seen in the image. very large field of view—105 deg2—allows it to be perfectly optimized for gleaning light mirror is 1.4 m in diameter, and the space- curves over time, Troeltzsch says. craft tips the scale at roughly 2,320 lb. The spacecraft rolls every 30 days to Kepler’s Scientific Operations Center and align a fixed high-gain antenna to download project management (operations) are located that month’s gathering of readings to the at NASA Ames. Project management (devel- Deep Space Network. Kepler also carries out opment) is handled at JPL. The spacecraft’s a 90-deg roll every 90 days to keep its solar Mission Operations Center is in Boulder, in panels always pointed at the Sun. It is the first the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space operational Ka-band mission to pipe its sci- Physics (LASP) at the University of Colorado. ence data down to Earth once a month. X- A Data Management Center for Kepler is band is used for uplink and downlink commu- situated at the Space Telescope Science Insti- nications. X-band contact is twice a week, for tute in Baltimore, with NASA’s Deep Space commanding and also for checking out the Network maintaining spacecraft telemetry. health and status of the probe. Flight segment design and fabrication were “Talking to and from the vehicle is work- ing very well right now,” Troeltzsch notes. “Our solid-state recorder is healthy. All the ca- Noise in the system pacity is there, and our compression ratio, Kepler engineers have encountered one glitch that has slowed the process of spotting which is something that we couldn’t fully test Earth-size worlds. before launch, looks good. As for our solar Data from three of Kepler’s array of 42 light-sensing detectors is subject to systematic panels…again, our margins are excellent.” noise. That noise is large enough to swamp out the ability of those detectors to identify The spacecraft provides the power, point- tiny changes in light—central to spotting the minute Earth-size planet signal that they are looking for, says John Troeltzsch, Kepler mission program manager at Ball Aerospace. ing, and telemetry for the photometer. Point- The problem is not unique to Kepler. Every instrument that NASA has ever flown has ing at a single group of stars for the entire its own unique characteristics. However, be it image artifacts or noise, calibration software mission greatly increases the photometric sta- on the ground can be rejiggered and refined to special process those effects. bility and simplifies the spacecraft design. Troeltzsch emphasizes that “Kepler is producing great data. It has demonstrated its Other than Kepler’s small reaction wheels, capability to find Earth-size planets.” Scientists at NASA Ames are developing new algo- used to maintain the pointing, and a now- rithms or adjusting existing algorithms to exploit Kepler’s stream of planet-searching data, he says. ejected dust cover on the telescope’s front “The final release of software for the science pipeline is going to be in 2011,” end, along with three focus mechanisms for Troeltzsch tells Aerospace America. “It’s a little later based on what we’ve learned on-orbit the primary mirror, there are no other moving …than what we predicted prelaunch.” or deployable parts. The only liquid is a small Those ground fixes will be in place in plenty of time to process Kepler data to confirm amount for the thrusters, kept from sloshing detection, if they are there to be spotted, of Earth-size worlds. Meanwhile, the spacecraft by a pressurized membrane. This design en- continues to churn out a mother-lode of exoplanet information, Troeltzsch suggests. hances the pointing stability and the overall A wealth of information regarding larger-than Earth-size planets that Kepler has found is to be released this month at the annual meeting of the American Astronomical reliability of the spacecraft. Society in Washington, D.C. Troeltzsch reemphasizes that “Kepler is doing fine. We have software that we have to Safing events and science creep update for the ground to handle things that we have learned on orbit.” The bottom line, Kepler’s photometer, its sole instrument, has he concludes: “Kepler is an amazing facility for finding exoplanets.” a field of view 33,000 times greater than that

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of the Hubble telescope. At its center the pho- its destination in space. At one point, tometer features a focal plane array of 42 it was facing the ax at NASA. CCDs with more than 95 million pixels, the It was Borucki, Kepler’s science largest camera NASA has ever flown in space. principal investigator, who first sug- To detect an Earth-size planet, the pho- gested the transit technique for de- tometer must be able to sense a drop in tecting Earth-size planets, in 1984. brightness of only 1/100 of a percent—analo- The lesson learned, he says after all gous to sensing the drop in intensity of an au- those years, is “Be persistent. Get the tomobile headlight when a fruit fly flutters in data and show the data to make your front of it. case.” “The one area where we had the most Kepler gained flight approval as risk was in the camera, and it’s working well. a NASA Discovery mission in late The CCDs are stable, the electronic tempera- 2001. But the price tag rose several Focal plane assembly was conducted tures are stable,” says Troeltzsch. “Our overall times following its selection, with the total cost at Ball Aerospace. noise number, which is really our sensitivity to rising above $550 million. In the spring of finding planets, is coming in really nicely. We 2007 the team asked for an extra $42 mil- had our requirements. We had our goals. And lion, a request not well received by then- we’re inside of those. Not every CCD behaves NASA science chief Alan Stern, who bluntly exactly the same. There are a couple of them told the Kepler team to look within to keep that are outside the specification, but that was costs down—or face termination. to be expected. The distribution is nice.” At Ball Aerospace, there was a lot of But Kepler’s commissioning has not all pressure, Troeltzsch remembers vividly. That been smooth sailing. There have been hic- Stern warning and call for replanning had a cups. Spacecraft operators are looking into catalyzing effect, he says, and sparked a flurry two safing events, apparently prompted by re- of activity, including elucidation of manage- sets of the RAD750 main processor. The team ment, accountability, roles, and lines of au- is working to isolate the root cause of the thority inside the company as well as with events, “looking at observables, looking at the NASA’s partners on the project. “Trust and facts, and looking at our assumptions,” says accountability are two things that are just crit- Troeltzsch. This process has led them to use a ical to success,” he says, and the Kepler team cause-and-effect tool, a fishbone analysis. had challenges in both those areas. All flight programs have issues that oper- In the end, the team demonstrated that it ators have to live with, Troeltzsch stresses. “If could deliver, and it did. you can deal with something that’s a problem “Kepler went from the poster child for by just living with it, that’s a perfectly accept- what could go wrong in a development pro- able way to run the mission.” gram to the poster child for how to turn a Overall, Kepler’s commissioning process project around and deliver a fully working sci- took 67 days, a week longer than anticipated. entific mission, on cost and schedule,” says That extra time adds up to a bit of “science Stern, now associate vice president of the creep”—with scientists asking for an even Southwest Research Institute’s Space Science tighter pointing of the spacecraft, beyond and Engineering Division in Boulder. “From specifications. “What they are doing is ex- what’s been released so far in flight, Kepler ploiting the capabilities of the machine,” has all the makings of a smashing success. Troeltzsch adds, “so we’re helping them The mission team deserves congratulations.” Images were gathered from two CCD achieve better than what was required per- module pairs—Kepler first light. formance. We did and it worked out well.” Call it the greedy scientist philosophy, something Troeltzsch realizes up front. “This is what they do for a living. They are going to come up with all kinds of powerful ways to get better science out of the machine. The goal is to build a machine that meets requirements, has some flexibility and margin so that when you get it on orbit you can exploit it, resulting in even better data.”

Lesson learned: Persistence Kepler has taken a long and winding road to

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Each rectangle indicates the specific region of the sky covered cal about the feasibility of detecting transits of by each CCD element of the Kepler Earth-size planets—it’s an extremely challeng- photometer. There are a total of ing measurement. “But perseverance, guided 42 CCD elements in pairs, each pair comprising a square. by a vision, can pay off,” says Fanson. Image by Carter Roberts. Kepler was the dark horse in the race, with NASA’s Space Interferometry Mission (SIM) and then the Terrestrial Planet Finder (TPF) being the odds-on favorites to be launched first, notes astrophysicist Boss. “In the end, Kepler won the race by so many lengths that SIM and the TPFs still haven’t even made it to the starting gate, much less to the finish line. The lesson is that Planetary payoff it is not a bad idea to bet on missions with Indeed, Kepler and tenacity go together, ac- long odds. They just might win in spite of the cording to astronomer Jill Tarter, director of poor odds,” Boss says. the SETI Institute’s Center for SETI Research, In his recent book, The Crowded Uni- in Mountain View, Calif. “If it were easy, verse: The Search for Living Planets, Boss says somebody else would have done it by now,” that “a new space race” has begun—an inter- she points out. national and lively competition to discover Years ago, in workshops on detecting how numerous Earth-like planets are in our planets, precision requirements such as micro- neighborhood of the Milky Way galaxy. That arcseconds and millimagnitudes seemed unbe- contest is being spurred by the blossoming lievably unattainable. However, “there were quest to detect planets with life around other dreamers in the crowd who grew older but stars. The bottom line for the astrophysicist is never stopped working on their dreams,” re- that life is not only possible elsewhere out calls Tarter. there...it is common. Early critics were justified in being skepti- Joining Boss in saluting Kepler and its early shakeout is James Kasting, a professor of geosciences at Pennsylvania State Univer- Kepler-certified students sity: “I, like others in the exoplanet commu- Kepler’s on-orbit operation is conducted at the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space nity, am absolutely thrilled by the data that we Physics (LASP) at the University of Colorado in Boulder, under a $5-million contract to Ball Aerospace. The Kepler mission control activity melds the talents of professionals expect to get out of Kepler. So far, they’ve and students at the university and specialists from Ball Aerospace. shown us enough to indicate that the tele- “Overall, it’s actually working better than we expected. It has been really smooth,” scope is working very well. The really interest- says Bill Possel, director of Mission Operations and Data Systems at LASP. ing data on Earth-like planets will take awhile, Working with the long-distance Kepler spacecraft, in concert with NASA Ames and perhaps two to three years, but I think it could the Deep Space Network, is a first for LASP. Along with Kepler, Possel explains, the LASP have a big impact on getting momentum built control center is presently flying four Earth-orbiting satellites: the Aeronomy of Ice in the Mesosphere, the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment, ICEsat, as well as QuikSCAT. All up for more ambitious planet-finding missions of them need different degrees of care and maintenance, he says. like SIM and TPF.” In terms of intensity, however, Kepler rates the highest. Still, spacecraft operations Borucki’s insistence that Kepler was do- make use of LASP-developed software akin to that used for the other university-run able met with repeated rejection for a decade, satellites. Kasting notes. “It is a tribute to his persever- Some 27 student operators are trained on Kepler, each taking 4-hr shifts. Not only is ance that he eventually pulled it off and now engaging LASP a cost-reduction step in Kepler mission operations, but the hands-on learn- has the hottest thing going in all of exoplanet ing is also a priceless, career-enhancing opportunity for students, Possel says. “It’s a win-win,” says Troeltzsch of Ball Aerospace. “It gives the university a chance to science,” says Kasting. participate in these big programs and a chance to have an educational experience with Putting on his forecasting hat, Troeltzsch their students. On our side, it’s a way to efficiently run a satellite for a good cost for the of Ball Aerospace looks to the year ahead: taxpayers.” “The only star that we’ve really studied in- There is an eventful future ahead for LASP. On the books is the NASA Mars Atmosphere tensely from this photometry point of view is and Volatile Evolution (MAVEN) mission, set to launch in 2013. LASP will provide science our Sun—we have a sample of one. And now operations and data packaging. Lockheed Martin Space Systems, based in nearby Littleton, we’ve got 120,000 stars under the micro- Colo., will provide the MAVEN spacecraft, as well as mission operations; JPL will navigate it. LASP is also on tap to carry out science operations duties in 2014 for a NASA Goddard project, scope out there. And I tell you…the Sun is not the Magnetospheric MultiScale mission, consisting of four spacecraft flying in formation to generic. I think there are going to be two gauge magnetospheric and solar wind interaction. really cool things that come out from Kepler. “That’s 11 instruments each on four spacecraft—that’s 44 instruments we’ll be operat- One is going to be an understanding of stars ing from here. So it’s going to be pretty busy,” Possel concludes. “LASP has been growing in our galaxy. The other, I think, is that we’re for the last few years, and I think we’re still looking at growing more.” going to find a bunch of planets.”

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Future prospects Small Explorers Nick Chrissotimos, Explorers program man- (Continued from page 35) ager at Goddard, says they are still looking at a rate of 12-18 months between missions. “And we like to mix those up a bit, so we’re proposing to [NASA] Headquarters that we fly perhaps two SMEXs, then a MIDEX, then two SMEXs, another MIDEX, etc.,” he says. “We can modify the rate depending on what we can afford. Headquarters gives us a guideline as to what kind of money they are thinking about, then we model what kind of missions that money will support—three These famous maps of the cosmic SMEXs, two SMEXs and a MIDEX, etc. microwave background anisotropy “Up to now, I don’t think the SMEXs were formed from data taken have had as much breakthrough science as the by the COBE spacecraft, a SMEX mission. MIDEXs. COBE [the Cosmic Background Ex- plorer, winner of the Nobel Prize for physics in 2006], which mapped the background, was a sions that eventually will lead to more science MIDEX launched in 1989. SWIFT, launched breakthroughs,” he says. about three years ago, also was a MIDEX and In addition to IBEX, Chrissotimos pointed is doing really great science in gamma-ray to the 2008 launch of AIM (Aeronomy of Ice burst activity, looking for black holes and lead- in the Mesosphere), which is looking at ex- ing to pretty astounding information on how tremely high altitude—and rarely observed— black holes work, how stars collapse, and clouds floating over the poles, as an example what’s happening in the middle of quasars.” of that growth. Even so, Chrissotimos adds, as newer “Those observations will change our and more advanced tools become available— thinking about how vapor gets up that high, especially smaller electronics—he expects what are [these clouds] composed of, how do SMEXs to contribute even more to the ad- they work,” he says. “So there is a lot of good vancement of science. science being done by the SMEX missions, “The SMEXs contribute a lot, and I think and I expect that not only to continue but to they will start coming more into their own as improve as the technology allows smaller and the scientists get newer and better tools for more efficient systems to be built.” observations that they can put on smaller Although NASA was in a state of uncer- spacecraft. Given the last decade of efficient tainty during the four months it took Presi- chips, there is more capability built into dent Obama to find a new administrator, smaller buses than we had before. So scien- Fisher is moving forward on the assumption tists can put a lot of potential into SMEX mis- the Explorers budget line will remain intact. “Our plan continues the Explorers pro- gram out beyond 2020,” Chrissotimos con- The AIM spacecraft, seen with cludes. “We never know what will come over its solar arrays in stowed the transom, in terms of science. The chief sci- configuration, will look at entist at NASA says the Explorers program is extremely high-altitude clouds floating over the poles. (Image an example of rampant scientific capitalism— credit: NASA/Orbital Sciences.) winner takes all, the best science at the lowest price. And, while I’m an advocate, I’d say that is true. “The biggest change I anticipate—and I’m excited about that—is a slow change in launch- ers. In the next few years we will see other op- tions for SMEX and MIDEX as new launchers come out of the commercial world. I believe that will have considerable impact on the pro- gram, because it will alter prospects for pay- loads, perhaps to L-2 or L-5. So I would an- ticipate growth in that area, and increasing complexity.”

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25 Years Ago, January 1985 Jan. 12 Aviation pioneer and popular novelist Nevil Shute, best known for his book On the Beach, dies. Born Jan. 24 Space Shuttle Discovery is Nevil Shute Norway in England in 1899, he served during launched and carries the first DOD WW I in the British Army and in 1922 joined de Havilland mission and crew, who deploy a signal Aircraft as a stress engineer. In 1924 he took a position intelligence satellite. NASA, Astro- with Vickers, where he later headed a team that designed nautics and Aeronautics 1985, p. 7. the Vickers R.100, a prototype for passenger airships. Shute became Vickers’ deputy chief engineer in 1928. 50 Years Ago, January 1960 In 1931 he founded Airspeed, the company that would produce the Envoy aircraft. By the start of WW II he was Jan. 7 The all-solid-fuel Polaris fleet a successful novelist and was also involved in secret weapons development ballistic IRBM achieves its first fully projects. The Aeroplane, Jan. 15, 1960, p. 58; Nevil Shute file, NASM. guided flight from the Atlantic Missile Range. E. Emme, ed., Aeronautics Jan. 21 The fourth Little Joe test vehicle, carrying a Project and Astronautics 1915-60, p. 118. Mercury space capsule with a rhesus monkey named Miss Sam aboard, is launched and successfully tests the space- Jan. 8 It is announced craft’s emergency escape system. The monkey is recovered that Pan American Airways after a 20-g acceleration and a 9-mi.-altitude flight. E. Emme, has activated, at Shannon, ed., Aeronautics and Astronautics 1915-60, p. 118. Ireland, the first unit of a planned global radio Jan. 26 A 173-ft-diam. Navy sounding balloon is launched from the deck of the transmission system using USS Valley Forge, not far from Puerto Rico. The balloon carries a 1,630-lb scientific the “forward scatter” tech- payload to record cosmic nique. This is the first very- rays and other particles high-frequency ground in the upper atmosphere. station to be used by an The next day, film packs airline. FAA Historical taken of the rays are Chronology, 1998, p. 65. recovered successfully by the destroyer Hyman. E. Emme, ed., Aeronautics Jan. 11 The Air Force announces the and Astronautics 1915-60, p. 118. development of the solid-fuel Skybolt air-launched ballistic missile, revealing Jan. 29 An Honest John artillery rocket is successfully destroyed that prototypes have been success- by a Hawk surface-to-air missile flying at a low altitude, in a test fully launched from aircraft at both at White Sands Missile Range, New Mexico. The Aeroplane, Feb. subsonic and supersonic speeds. E. 19, 1960, p. 214. Emme, ed., Aeronautics and Astro- nautics 1915-60, p. 118. And During January 1960

Jan. 11-15 The First International —It is announced that an IBM 650 RAMAC computer at the Indianapolis Air Route Space Science Symposium takes place Traffic Control Center is now linked with other computers in Nice, France. The Earth’s radiation at Washington, D.C., Cleveland, and Pittsburgh. This is belts, as recently discovered by several part of the FAA’s plan to establish computers at 30 air satellites, are the favorite topic. This traffic control centers throughout the U.S. by 1965. is the first international forum for The Aeroplane, Jan. 15, 1960, p. 60. discussing these radiation belts, the Earth’s magnetic field, and lunar 75 Years Ago, January 1935 photography. The event, organized by the International Committee on Jan. 1 A regular program of stratospheric studies by radio balloons is begun Space Research, attracts 90 scientists. in Moscow by the Aerological Dept. of the Central Institute of Experimental The Aeroplane, Jan. 29, 1960, p. 140; Hydrology and Meteorology. One of the balloons, designed by Pavel Molchanov, D. Baker, Spaceflight and Rocketry: ascends to a record height of 55,777 ft. The radio signals are received for 30 min. A Chronology, p. 98. Flight, Feb. 14, 1935.

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An Aerospace Chronology by Frank H.Winter, Ret. and Robert van der Linden National Air and Space Museum

Jan. 2 The overseas model of the on station there since 1927. The aircraft are British-designed Airspeed Envoy assigned to No. 205 (F.B.) Squadron in the British commercial airplane is demonstrated colony. The pilots then return to England by for the first time to the public at steamer. Flight, Jan. 17, 1935, pp. 62-64. Portsmouth Airport, England. Powered by two 240-hp Siddeley Lynx IV.C Jan. 16 The new Latecoere 37-ton Transatlantic Flying Boat, powered by six engines, it is considered possibly the 860-hp Hispano engines, begins its trials at the Biscarosse seaplane base in France. fastest British commercial airplane, On its initial flight, the duralumin and with a top speed of 174 mph and a stainless steel flying boat flies at 600 ft cruising speed of 153 mph. The around the lake at Biscarosse, gradually low-wing, streamlined machine seats increasing its loads until it reaches six to eight passengers. The overseas the loaded weight of 37 tons. Flight, model will be used for Europe and Jan. 24, 1935. India. The Aeroplane, Jan. 9, 1935, pp. 40-42. Jan. 22 The Federal Aviation Commission, appointed by President Franklin D. Roosevelt the previous year, submits its first report and sets forth a broad policy Jan. 5 Lt. Cmdr. J.R. Poppen, USN, on all phases of aviation in the U.S. It recommends strengthening commercial becomes the first flight surgeon as- and civil aviation, expanding airport facilities, and establishing more realistic pro- signed to the Naval Aircraft Factory. curement practices by industry. E. Emme, ed., Aeronautics and Astronautics, He will observe pilots, conduct phys- 1915-60, p. 32. ical examinations, and work on the hygienic and physiological aspects Jan. 24 Richard Light, with Richard Wilson, completes a leisurely 29,000-mi. of Navy R&D projects. E. Emme, ed., flight around the world in a Bellanca seaplane. The pair set off from New Haven, Aeronautics and Astronautics, 1915- Conn., on August 20, 1934. They visited Labrador, Greenland, Iceland, Holland, 60, p. 32. Scandinavia, Germany, Italy, Greece, Cypress, Iraq, Persia, India, Siam, Malaya, Java, Borneo, and the Philippines. They then took their aircraft on a steamship Jan. 12 Amelia Earhart to Vancouver and from there flew to Mexico and Cuba, then up to New York. completes the first solo Flight, Feb. 21, 1935. flight between Hawaii and California when Jan. 29 A new women’s altitude record is set by Madeleine Charneaux of France, she lands her Lockheed flying a Farman powered by a single Renault Bengali engine up to 19,790 ft, near Vega, equipped with Paris. Accompanying her is Edith Clark. Flight, Feb. 7, 1935, p. 145. a supercharged Pratt & And During January 1935 Whitney SID1 Wasp, at Oakland Airport. She flies the 2,400-mi. dis- —Polish Lot airlines orders two Douglas DC-2s from the tance from Wheeler Field, Honolulu, in Fokker Works. They are to be used on the Berlin-Warsaw 18 hr 17 min at an average speed of route that is run in conjunction with Deutsche Luft 140 mph. This is the first westward Hansa. More than 65 DC-2s have been delivered so far. crossing made on this route. Earhart European companies using the U.S. plane, which is built navigated by dead reckoning, supple- under license by Fokker, include KLM, the Austrian airline mented by position fixes from ship OLA, and Swissair. Flight, Jan. 31, 1935, p. 133. and shore radio stations. She flew at an average altitude of 8,000 ft, 100 Years Ago, January 1910 encountering many rain squalls, cloud banks, and fogs, but no severe storms. Jan. 7 Hubert Lathan becomes the first to pilot Aviation, February 1935, pp. 64, 66. an aircraft to an altitude of 1,000 m, flying an Antoinette monoplane from Chalons, France. Jan. 15 In an unusual delivery flight A. van Hoorebeeck, La Conquete de L’Air, p. 82. starting from Pembroke Dock, England, four Short Brothers Singapore III flying Jan. 10 The Aero Club of California sponsors the first air meet in the U.S. when boats take off for Singapore to replace competitors from around the country gather at Dominguez Field in Los Angeles. the older Southampton flying boats A. van Hoorebeeck, La Conquete de L’Air, p. 82.

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