The Covid-19 and Democracy Project: Kingston University Covid-19 and Democracy, First Cut Policy Analyses: Country Case Studies September 2020 Editor: Dr Peter Finn Contributors: Associate Professor Radu Cinpoes, Dr Peter Finn, Associate Professor Atsuko Ichijo, Dr Robert Ledger, Dr Nevena Nancheva, Dr Robin Pettitt, Dr Ronald Ranta Foreword by: Professor Javier Ortega 1 The Covid-19 and Democracy Project: Kingston University Executive Summary This report examines the intersection between political and policy responses to Covid-19 across 8 democracies (the UK, Germany, Romania, Bulgaria, Israel, Japan, Taiwan, and the US). In doing, it provides first-cut analyses of the early stages of the Covid-19 pandemic. This executive summary highlights 6 policy learning points and 3 key findings (two empirical and one methodological). Policy Learning Points Politics Matters: There have been calls from some to 'keep politics out of' responses to the Covid-19 pandemic. Yet, such calls are impossible to implement. As this report details, politics can have both positive and negative effects on policy, but to avoid discussing it is foolhardy, and would leave one with an incomplete picture. Local, National and International Politics: The relationship between (democratic) politics and policy during the Covid-19 pandemic has played out at various levels. Locally, sub-par regional health management has contributed to poor responses in some instances, while coordination between elected officials has aided initially sound responses in others. At a national level, factors such as pre-existing political divisions, national prestige and geopolitics have also affected responses. Interconnectedness: The Covid-19 pandemic has demonstrated how global health crises can become intertwined with complex and globally diffused operation and ownership structures. Such structures generate policy dilemmas stemming from opacity over responsibility. Prior Experience, Legislative and Bureaucratic Apparatus and Health Care Capacity: Several case studies illustrate the value of both experience in dealing with similar events and the presence of pre-existing legislative and bureaucratic apparatuses, as well as the benefit of additional health care capacity and forward planning. Pre-Existing Prejudices and Disparities: One aspect of the Covid-19 pandemic documented in some case studies is the formulation of policies based on, or that (deliberately or not) exacerbate, pre-existing prejudices and disparities. As importantly, infection and death rates have mirrored pre-existing social disparities. Moving forward, policymakers should avoid decisions and language that, deliberately or not, reflect existing prejudices. They also need to understand how and why pre- existing disparities are reflected in transmission and death rates. Little room for complacency: Even where initial responses to the Covid-19 pandemic have been sound, there is little room for complacency. Key Findings Diversity of experience: Democracies have experienced Covid-19 in diverse ways. This diversity suggests the large death tolls that have arisen in some were not inevitable, but instead arose from particular policy choices and political dynamics. Curtailing free movement creates national level dilemmas: Numerous governments faced policy dilemmas as large numbers of cruise ship passengers and crews became quarantined, or otherwise trapped within the borders of single states, as free movement was curtailed. This suggests a trend requiring attention during the Covid-19 pandemic and future global health events. The value of comparison: This report has been written during the early stages of the Covid-19 pandemic. With events changing quickly locally, nationally, and internationally, the value of engaging in comparative analysis has been reinforced. 2 The Covid-19 and Democracy Project: Kingston University Table of Contents Executive Summary ................................................................................................................... 2 Table of Contents ....................................................................................................................... 3 Foreword .................................................................................................................................... 4 A Note on Method, Aims and Context ....................................................................................... 5 Introduction: Dr Peter Finn......................................................................................................... 6 Chapter 1: United Kingdom, Dr Robin Pettitt .......................................................................... 20 Chapter 2: Germany, Dr Robert Ledger .................................................................................. 29 Chapter 3: Romania, Associate Professor Radu Cinpoes ...................................................... 37 Chapter 4: Bulgaria, Dr Nevena Nancheva ............................................................................. 45 Chapter 5: Israel, Dr Ronald Ranta ......................................................................................... 53 Chapter 6: Japan, Associate Professor Atsuko Ichijo ............................................................. 61 Chapter 7: Taiwan, Associate Professor Atsuko Ichijo ........................................................... 70 Chapter 8: United States of America, Dr Peter Finn ............................................................... 78 Contributor Biographies ........................................................................................................... 91 3 The Covid-19 and Democracy Project: Kingston University Foreword Since the beginning of the century, a yearly news item has been the announcement of a possible world-wide epidemic causing a huge number of deaths, and not only in the less developed parts of the planet. We have regularly heard about the different steps: transmission from animal to animal, then from animal to human, and finally from human to human. Except in a small number of cases, such as the 2003 SARS outbreak and the 2009 avian flu, the news item has, however, been short- lived, with perhaps many believing in the end that journalists were filling news vacuums or that the alleged viral threat was simply the latest mutation of some millenarian fear. From the end of 2019, the latest materialization of this news item has invaded everything, causing 0.6 million deaths as of mid-July 2020 and interacting with every possible dimension of human existence. Covid-19 has landed into a technologically and economically integrated world shaken by changes in the international balance of power, and increasingly hesitant about the usefulness of its current level of integration. In that sense, the odyssey of the Diamond Princess cruise ship, which operated across a sea of ambiguous jurisdictions and was quarantined in Japan in February 2020, began many years ago, with the Covid-19 crisis only now making it bluntly clear that our heavily integrated world is unlikely to survive with such political feet of clay. Although the appearance of the Covid-19 threat is common, the introduction and the chapters in this volume provide a clear and convincing account of the relevance of political factors in understanding the widely different health outcomes observed in eight countries (the UK, Germany, Romania, Bulgaria, Israel, Japan, Taiwan, and the US). Taiwan, for instance, was well prepared because of a pre- existing need to have a full strategy for epidemic management resulting from its banning from international organizations; for Germany, a well-funded health system may have been crucial in securing a successful reaction so far, while Romania’s response was based on a stricter lockdown given weaker government funding; in the US, despite some states reacting promptly, the response at the Federal level was hesitant, and also aimed in part at Trump’s electoral campaign, with blame redirected to China and the World Health Organization. The authors have also to be commended for finding the time and the energy to contribute to our knowledge while under lockdown, in the midst of so many personal and professional readjustments associated with the pandemic. Javier Ortega, Interim Associate Dean for Research, Faculty of Business and Social Sciences, Kingston University, London 4 The Covid-19 and Democracy Project: Kingston University A Note on Method, Aims and Context This report on 8 democracies has been written by country experts as the Covid- 19 pandemic has driven change and uncertainty globally. As such, the statistics, discussion, and analysis it contains reflect a constantly changing picture at local, national, and international levels. It was commissioned in early-May 2020, with chapters drafted by early-June and revised following a data cut-off date of June 30, 2020. The Introduction was written in June and revised in July. Proofreading, editing, formatting and harmonisation took place in July and August. Rather than provide a comprehensive documentation of events in these 8 democracies, each chapter provides selective discussions of the intersection between democratic politics and policy in these democratic states. In short, this report is meant to provide a first-cut analysis that acts as a bridge between the reflective writing that develops from the academic peer review process and the more immediate analysis and information found in (the undoubtedly essential) media coverage of the pandemic. As such,