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Georgian Security Analysis Center 1 GGGEEEOOORRRGGGIIIAAANNN SSSEEECCCUUURRRIIITTTYYY AAANNNAAALLLYYYSSSIIISSS CCCEEENNNTTTEEERRR A Chronology of the Kodori Events Text Sources: Joint Fact-Finding Group Report on The Rocket Firing Incident in the upper Kodori valley on 11 March, 2007, Under the Radar! By David J. Smith, published in 24 Saati, April 17, 2007and Kodori Attack: Fresh Cause For Conflict by Molly Corso, published on www.eurasianet.org, March 19, 2007 Photo Source: The Ministry of Defense of Georgia. Chkhalta Administration Building All times referred to in this document, unless specified otherwise, are based on UNOMIG time (GMT +3). March 11, 2007, 2110 – 2300 An alleged incident involving the use of helicopters and firing of rockets occurred. Approximately 2110 The presence of one or more helicopters was reported at Omarishava, Gentsvish and Ptysh by locals and a Georgian Border Guard post. Helicopters were reported to have moved in the direction of Chkhalta and Adjara. Helicopters, described by eyewitnesses as the type known to the west as HIND-E, entered Georgia from the Russian Republic of Karachay-Cherkessia. “ATAKA” remain from Chkhalta Approximately from 2130 - until 2245 There were numerous reports of ground-to-ground fire impacts (17 sites have been documented), first in the area around Adjara and Zima, and then Chkhalta. The villages came under ground- launched rocket attack, presumably from territory controlled by the Russian-backed de facto Georgian Security Analysis Center ♦ 3a Chitadze Street, Tbilisi, 0108, Georgia ♦ Tel.: +995 32 47 35 55 Fax: +995 32 98 52 65, E-mail: [email protected], www.gfsis.org/gsac 2 authorities that control most of Abkhazia. At Zima, Chkhalta and Adjara, a total of 17 ground impacts were identified; 16 ground level craters and one first-floor impact on the Chkhalta Regional Administration Building. 12 craters were created by 122 mm rockets. Specifically, the rockets appear to be the 9M22 variant with high-explosive fragmentation warheads designed for the BM-21 launcher and related systems, which have a maximum range of approximately 20 km. In 4 craters it was not possible to determine the exact type of ordnance, despite the presence of small shrapnel fragments and similarity to the other craters. No ‘brake rings’ (used for short range firing) were found and there were no traces of residual fuel. From Adjara Crater Around 2247 The final rocket firing incident reportedly took place, when an Anti-Tank Guided Missile (ATGM) impacted on the Chkhalta Regional Administration of the Georgian-backed Abkhaz government-in-exile. No injuries were reported. An explosion was reported in the vicinity of Mramba Bridge. After gathering and examining 137 fragments from the Chkhalta Regional Administration building impact, it was established that the ordnance used was either an AT-6 ‘SHTURM’ or AT-9 ‘ATAKA’ ATGM. These are 130 mm ATGMs of Russian production, the ATAKA being a modernized SHTURM. An internal device for radio- guidance and optical sighting from this missile was recovered intact. Both the ATAKA and SHTURM can be fired from both helicopter (Mi-24V, Mi-28, Mi-8 AMTSh) and ground platforms (9P149/MTLB ATGM Launcher Vehicle, BMPT), but neither version is known to the JFFG to be available for man-portable systems. The symmetrical and roundish craters being did not give good indications of direction except that a high angle of fire was a possibility. General estimation has led JFFG to conclude that the direction of fire was from the south ranging between 150 to 220 degrees. ATGM may have been fired from the ground. It is theoretically possible, as both the SHTURM and the ATAKA can be fired from certain armored vehicles (9P149/MTLB ATGM Launcher Vehicle, BMPT). Nonetheless, the missile appears to have entered the building from a relatively high angle (likely precluding the use of an actual armored vehicle) and was seemingly very Georgian Security Analysis Center ♦ 3a Chitadze Street, Tbilisi, 0108, Georgia ♦ Tel.: +995 32 47 35 55 Fax: +995 32 98 52 65, E-mail: [email protected], www.gfsis.org/gsac 3 accurate (hitting an office space window in the administrative building.) Likewise, it would be technically very difficult to accurately fire a SHTURM or ATAKA from an improvised ground platform. Around 2300 Reports stated that helicopter activity ceased, thereby proposing that helicopters flew in the upper Kodori valley region for a total period of 1 hour and 50 minutes. There were no reports of casualties, one government building was damaged substantially. March 12, 2007 Parliamentary Speaker Nino Burjanadze noted that while the government will "check everything," there was already evidence that the helicopters came from Russia. "We are waiting for an explanation of what happened in Upper Abkhazia from our northern neighbors," she is quoted as saying by the Russian newspaper Vremya Novosti. In a televised statement to an emergency session of the National Security Council Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili denounced the attack as "a very dangerous provocation" designed to disrupt stability in Georgia and the South Caucasus. March 14, 2007 Lt. Col. Giga Tatishvili, Deputy Chief of Staff of the Georgian Armed Forces: “It is impossible for separatists to have attack helicopters, Mi24...to have that good pilot to fly at night at that low range. It is impossible even for us. The pilots were very good; to fly at those ranges in those mountains at night without any devices… because we could not detect them. … My personal opinion is they came from Russia." Saakashvili paid a two-hour visit to Chkhalta and the government-in-exile’s headquarters. Georgian Security Analysis Center ♦ 3a Chitadze Street, Tbilisi, 0108, Georgia ♦ Tel.: +995 32 47 35 55 Fax: +995 32 98 52 65, E-mail: [email protected], www.gfsis.org/gsac 4 March 15, 2007 According to Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin, Tbilisi and the Georgian- backed authorities in the upper Kodori Gorge are themselves to blame for the attack. In the interview with Izvestiya, Karasin called the bombing a "very clear signal" for those who are creating "turmoil" in the Abkhazian conflict zone. He added that the incident is a "logical corollary" of Georgia’s decision to send troops to the gorge last summer. July 12, 2007 United Nations Observer Mission In Georgia Joint Fact- Finding Group Report on The Rocket Firing Incident in the upper Kodori valley on 11 March, 2007 published. Georgian Security Analysis Center ♦ 3a Chitadze Street, Tbilisi, 0108, Georgia ♦ Tel.: +995 32 47 35 55 Fax: +995 32 98 52 65, E-mail: [email protected], www.gfsis.org/gsac .
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