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MIT Energy Initiative IHS Seminar, So What's Wrong with Subsidized “A Great Solar Cell Has To Be a Great LED”; So What’s Wrong With Subsidized Solar Panels? MIT Energy Initiative IHS Seminar, Cambridge Mass. 5PM, Wednesday Feb. 8, 2017 Eli Yablonovitch, Vidya Ganapati, Patrick Xiao Electrical Engineering and Computer Sciences Dept., Univ. of California, & Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory 30 29 Alta Devices record, 28.8% 28 1-sun, single junction, 27 solar cell efficiency record: 26 Efficiency (%) Efficiency 25 24 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Year 1.15 Alta Devices record cell, 1.122 volts (Volts) 1.10 OC Open Circuit voltage for 1.05 record efficiency cells: 1.00 Open Circuit voltage V voltage Open Circuit 0.95 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Year GaAs solar cells are the preferred technology, where cost is no objection: Space The Epitaxial Liftoff Process: Courtesy of Alta Devices, Inc. Li Hejun h h h 25.1% e- efficiency + 1990-2007 h h h h hg h g 28.8% e- efficiency 2011-2012 h+ excellent reflector >>95% Shockley told us to generate the maximum possible external luminescence: qVoc = qVoc-ideal – kT|ln{ext}| The external luminescence yield Only external ext is what matters! Luminescence can balance the incoming radiation. 1 sun results from Alta Devices, Inc. Expected to reach 29.8% single junction For solar cells at 25%, good electron-hole transport is already a given. Further improvements of efficiency above 25% are all about the photon management! A great solar cell needs be a great LED! Counter-intuitively: Solar cells perform best when there is maximum external fluorescence yield ext. Miller et al, IEEE J. Photovoltaics, vol. 2, pp. 303-311 (2012) Dual Junction Series-Connected Tandem Solar Cell h h n-Al0.5In0.5P Eg~2.35eV Ga0.5In0.5P Ga0.5In0.5P VOC=1.5V n-Ga0.5In0.5P Eg~1.8eV VOC=1.5V Solar Cell Solar Cell p-Ga0.5In0.5P Eg~1.8eV + Tunnel p -Al0.5In0.5P Eg~2.35eV Tunnel + Contact n -Al0.5In0.5P Eg~2.35eV Contact n-Al0.5In0.5P GaAs n-GaAs Eg=1.4eV GaAs V =1.1V V =1.1V OC p-GaAs Eg=1.4eV OC Solar Cell Solar Cell p-Al0.2Ga0.8As All Lattice-Matched ~34% efficiency should be possible. Dual-junction 1 sun results from Alta Devices, Inc. ALTA has demonstrated >31.5% efficiency in the same system. Expected to reach 34% dual junction, eventually. 38.8% Efficient--all time champion solar cell Quadruple-junction 1-sun cell captures diffuse & direct light designed for Luminesce- total Extraction & internal Photon- reflection Recycling IEEE JOURNAL OF PHOTOVOLTAICS, VOL. 6, p.358 (JANUARY 2016) Myles A. Steiner, Sarah R. Kurtz, et al, NREL USA Counter-Intuitively, to approach the Shockley-Queisser Limit, you need to have good external fluorescence yield ext !! Both Internal Fluorescence Yield >> 90% int needed for Rear reflectivity >> 90% good ext What is happening in the solar economy? c-Si ~ 15%-23% in production 90% market share 75GW/year annual world-wide production capacity World-wide demand ~60GW/year Oversupply! The current world price has settled at $0.40-0.50/Watt Learning Curve 21.5% per 2X production (1976-2014) Learning Curve 21.5% per 2X production (1976-2014) silicon shortage over-capacity Learning Curve 21.5% per 2X production (1976-2014) silicon shortage Shipments Average Price 2015 50GWp $0.58/Wp over-capacity 2016 60GWp $0.48/Wp Jan. 2017 Spot Price $0.43/Wp Cumulative world-wide >300GWp installed Friday Saturday After spending ~1011Euros, Germany has installed 40GW of panels, but receives only 7% of its electricity from solar What is happening in the solar economy? c-Si ~ 15%-23% in production 90% market share 75GW/year annual world-wide production capacity World-wide demand ~60GW/year Oversupply! The current world price is diving to $0.40-0.50/Watt but cost is > $0.60-0.70/Watt Two TeraWatts can be built out in 30 years, requiring no additional capacity. To justify additional production capacity New and different application markets are needed. For Photovoltaics to make a further impact, new applications and markets are needed; bigger than the 10% impact on the electric utility industry. 1. Pumped water for Reverse Osmosis desalination. 2. Solar Fuels: 3. Thermo-PhotoVoltaics 4. Electro-Luminescent Refrigeration & Heat Engines Since we are for the first time making really efficient photovoltaic cells (also LED's), some new ideas become very timely What is Thermo-PhotoVoltaics? What is Thermo-PhotoVoltaics? 4 Blackbody Power Spectrum x 10 Differential Blackbody Power 909 808 707 ] V e / 2 6 60m wasted energy c / /eV] W 2 h < 0.95eV m [ 5 50t n e r r u 4 C 40 y d o b k 3 30c a l B Power [Watts/cm Power 202 wasted energy h < 0.8eV 101 0 0 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 0 0.2 0.4 Photon Energy0.6 [eV] 0.8 1 1.2 Photon Energy [eV] Thermo-PhotoVoltaic Hybrid Car: 1997 Only ~20% efficiency Proceedings Future Transportation Technology Conference, Christ, S. and Seal, M., "Viking 29 - A Thermophotovoltaic Hybrid Vehicle Designed and Built at Western Washington University," SAE Technical Paper 972650, 1997, doi:10.4271/972650. Superb Rear Reflector; Recycle the Infrared Photons: 4 Blackbody Power Spectrum x 10 Differential Blackbody Power 909 808 707 ] V e / 2 6 60m recycled energy c / /eV] W 2 h < 0.95eV m [ 5 50t n e r r u 4 C 40 y d o b k 3 30c a l B Power [Watts/cm Power 202 recycled energy h < 0.8eV 101 0 0 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 0 0.2 0.4 Photon Energy0.6 [eV] 0.8 1 1.2 Photon Energy [eV] Default Solution: engineer the emissivity spectrum to preferentially produce big photons, h>Eg ~50 years of research Recent developments in high-temperature photonic crystals for energy conversion Veronika Rinnerbauer *a, Sidy Ndao bc, Yi Xiang Yeng ab, Walker R. Chan ab, Jay J. Senkevich b, John D. Joannopoulos ab, Marin Soljačić ab and Ivan Celanovic b aResearch Laboratory of Electronics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA Energy Environ. Sci., (2012), 5, 8815-8823 Thin-Film GaAs Solar Cell: Reflectivity Above and Below BandGap 100 Sub-bandgap reflectivity > 92% Sample AD19631 above-bandgap anti-reflection coating thermophotovoltaic chamber reflected thermal water cooling radiation on all exterior surfaces hot source photovoltaic cells lining inner faces of radiation chamber 280 suns bouncing around internally! Small area photovoltaic cell is adequate. Convert Heat to Electricity with >50% Efficiency 70 60 50 40 30 Burn Fuel 20 Single Junction Cells but 2X 1500°C = Radiation Temperature efficiency 10 20°C = Cell Temperature and half the not SQ limit; non-ideality ext=0.3 emissions 0 Conversion of Heat to Electricity Efficiency (%) Electricity ofto Heat Efficiency Conversion 90% 91% 92% 93% 94% 95% 96% 97% 98% 99% Photovoltaic Cell Infrared Reflectivity in % Thermo-PhotoVoltaic Hybrid Car: 50kWatt—70cm 70cm 1200C is equivalent to 100suns to 500suns 1056 Watts hot water Watts 1056 electricity Watt 1000 use: For home water cooling on all cooling water exterior surfaces surfaces exterior dollar bill for size scale 20cm thermal radiation chamber fuel heated reaction manifold air exhaust photovoltaic cells lining inner faces of radiation chamber radiation thermal Quad-Copters for civilian & military use: : Duration depends on energy density Lithium battery lasts 20 minutes. Liquid fuel has 50 times higher energy density, would last 16 hours. For Deep Space use, heat Source can be nuclear, SiC pellets at 1500C. But there is competition from Fuel Cell vehicles; 2H2+O22H2O requires H2 storage; (but new H2 storage technologies are being invented) Since we are for the first time making really efficient photovoltaic cells (also LED's), some new ideas become very timely Electro-luminescent refrigeration (thermophotonic cooling) My student Patrick Xiao Traditional Thermoelectric cooler/generator electric current carries heat phonon energy required to surmount barrier phonon energy Metal n-Bi2Te3 returned to the heat bath this side gets cold Metal this side gets hot electric current drags entropy from left to right Also works to generate electricity The hot side sends out more electrons than the cold side Thermoelectric cooler TC TH Phonons Phonons Thermal Joule conduction, κ Joule heating heating ρ ρ resistivity J resistivity Peltier effect, αEF/T Semiconductor + The efficiency is maximized by optimizing – 훼2 푍 = 휌휅 State of the art: ZT = 1, (T = 300K) ~10% of Carnot limit h h h *ask any astrophysicist h h solar cell Free Energy = h– TS qVoc = Eg– TS For GaAs Eg is 1.4eV But the record Voc=1.12Volts Most of the entropy is due to loss of directionality information. Now reverse everything h h LED light carries h away entropy S h h light emitting diode input 1.12 Volts get out Eg= h =1.4eV Where does the extra 0.28eV come from? obviously heat from the lattice. Most of the LED light entropy is due to loss of directionality information. Electro-luminescence pumps out 0.3eV of heat/photon Supplied LED work, W Temperature T Phonons Entropy carried J Entropy flux per photon + V – Photon flux, Φ Heat pumped out of LED = > 0 Heat pumped per Heat generated per failed emitted photon, 0.3 eV luminescence, 1.1 eV This means: we need at least ηext > 80%! Or much higher for good performance 42 Shockley's perpetual motion machine, circa ~1955 LED PV cell Phonons Phonons + + ϕLED V JLED JPV VPV LED Photon flux – – "Thermal Energy Taken from Surroundings in the…Radiation from a p-n Junction Jan Tauc, Czechoslovak J.
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