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Emilie Oldknow The Next Generation: Parliamentary Candidates to Watch 2010 is going to mark a watershed in British politics. The General Election could see the greatest influx of new Members into the Chamber since the Second World War. The expenses scandal last year, for all its tabloid headlines, has forced the party leaders to re-examine their selection processes, and has resulted in local parties looking beyond the standard criteria for candidates. The result has been a wave of genuinely fascinating, intellectual and professionally astute candidates. Following on from the much acclaimed edition last year, Insight Public Affairs have continued to examine the next generation of MPs. In this – the second edition – we profile a further 32 candidates – most of whom have been selected in the recent months and witnessed heightened prominence in the parties and the media. As before, the so called ‘ones to watch’ have been selected for their ability, potential and ambition to become influential political players in British politics after the forthcoming election. Please send your comments on this publication to [email protected] Contents Introduction Labour PPCs John Lehal 1 Kate Green 24 Lillian Greenwood 25 Conservative PPCs Liz Kendall 26 Angie Bray 3 Shabana Mahmood 27 Fiona Bruce 4 Lisa Nandy 28 John Glen 5 Emilie Oldknow 29 Robert Halfon 6 Chi Onwurah 30 Matthew Hancock 7 Bridget Phillipson 31 Sajid Javid 8 Anas Sarwar 32 Jo Johnson 9 John Woodcock 33 Kwasi Kwarteng 10 Phillip Lee 11 Lib Dem PPCs Jonathan Lord 12 Sal Brinton 35 All polling data has Bridget Fox 36 been sourced from Penny Mordaunt 13 Thrasher & Rawlings . Neil Parish 14 Retiring MPs Insight Public Affairs Claire Perry 15 would like to express Stephen Phillips 16 Retiring MPs and selected PPCs 38 their thanks to the PPC data analysis 42 contributors who have Daniel Poulter 17 helped produce this Dominic Raab 18 New constituencies and boundary publication. changes in marginal seats 43 David Rutley 19 Cover illustration by Julian Smith 20 Morten Morland About Insight Public Affairs Bob Stewart 21 Edited by: Rory Stewart 22 About Insight Public Affairs 44 Stephanie Reeves THE NEXT GENERATION: PARLIAMENTARY CANDIDATES TO WATCH Introduction In July 2009, we published volume one of Insight’s ‘Parliamentary Candidates to Watch’ – the candidates we expect to be the rising stars after the next election. Since then, there has been a rush of MPs from all parties who have announced their intention to stand down from safe seats. Many have become jaded by the expenses scandal and public disdain for politics and politicians. Some have been asked by party hierarchies to stand aside to give the next generation of candidates a chance. The last six months have been a blur of short-listing and selections in seats that many assumed would not become available for many years. With so many new candidates – soon to become new MPs – arriving on the scene, we thought it necessary to produce a second volume of our guide to the best PPCs – profiling candidates we judge to be the Ministers and Shadow Ministers of tomorrow. Looking through the list, several are career politicians, having worked their way up the ranks through the Special Adviser route or as party apparatchiks. These candidates will hit the ground sprinting in the early hours of 7 May 2010 – staff recruited; clear about the campaigns they will fight; having selected their policy priorities; and ready to deliver their contribution on the floor of House in what will be one of 250 Maiden Speeches. Those who get to grips quickly with Westminster life and impress their new leaders, are promised the opportunity to follow in the footsteps of the likes of Ed Miliband, Ed Balls, Michael Gove and Grant Shapps – to make it to the junior ministerial or shadow ministerial ranks soon after taking their seats. Certainly the likes of Bob Stewart and Kate Green have in their professional lives made considerable impact and could quickly be making their contribution from the front bench. At the same time, John Woodcock and Matthew Hancock have political experience gained in the cut and thrust of the Westminster village, and with their knowledge of Westminster and Whitehall will be quickly moving up the ranks. We have now profiled over 60 candidates in total, and we know there are still several MPs still to join the 138 who have announce their retirements, and countless Conservative Associations and CLPs still to select their candidates. We will resist publishing a third tranche, but will continue to publish occasional briefings and analysis in the run-up to the election and beyond. When I spoke to a candidate profiled in the first volume, they suggested a more interesting exercise would be to see who from the amalgamated list would make an ‘A’ list of 30... we will resist that temptation too! Come the election, many psephologists will be watching to see whether the Conservatives capture their 117 seats to form a majority. Others will want to know which way the bellweather constituencies such as Derby North, Kingswood, Hyndburn and East Renfrewshire fall. At Insight’s election night party we’ll be paying extra attention to how many of our 62 profiled candidates have made it over the next hurdle. All of us in political advocacy wait with baited breath to see what the most eagerly awaited election in a generation holds in store. Beyond that, we are busy predicting the legislation likely to feature in the Queen’s Speech on 12 May 2010, and assessing its impact. We hope that this guide will give you a flavour of those people who will be shaping the political landscape the other side of May 2010. John Lehal Managing Director 1 THE NEXT GENERATION: PARLIAMENTARY CANDIDATES TO WATCH What they bring to the party: Conservative PPCs James Tyrrell Director, Insight Public Affairs With 565 Conservative Party candidates selected so far, the race to find the next generation of Conservative MPs is nearly over. The Candidate Selection team, headed by John Maples MP, has succeeded in recent months in broadening and deepening the diversity of candidates on offer. Local associations and electorate have also played a big part with the growing number of open-primaries, ensuring candidates selected have the support of both the party and the local community. David Cameron’s desire to groom a new intake of political ‘outsiders’, to provide a breath of fresh air to the voting public in the wake of the ‘anti-politics’ backlash surrounding the expenses scandal has been successful, with a former miner, an author, retired military personnel, entrepreneurs and social workers selected. Since his announcement in May to allow people who have not even been members of the party to stand for the Conservatives, more than 4,000 expressions of interest have been received by CCHQ. This was certainly alluring to Rory Stewart, who confessed to being an active supporter of Labour in his teens. The Harvard professor and now PPC for Penrith and the Borders, has an impressive CV that boasts a career in the army, as a diplomat and time spent as a deputy governor in Iraq. His achievements include setting up a charity in Afghanistan and taking time to walk across the entire country. But despite the strides made to select candidates from a diverse background, many have enjoyed a privileged upbringing – a high proportion have been privately educated. However, the party has been right to concentrate on aspects of diversity outside social class and educational background, hence the new intake will likely feature more women, gay and ethnic minority candidates. But, fighting on the basis of people’s backgrounds is something the average voter just isn’t interested in. More important will be what the candidates can bring to the party. Our selection of “Ones to Watch” highlights a number of candidates who are experts in their field. From law, Stephen Phillips became one of the youngest QCs in the country at the age of only 38 and has recently been appointed as a Crown Court Recorder, whilst Fiona Bruce is well-regarded as a reputable solicitor in the North West. Dr Daniel Poulter and Dr Phillip Lee will join a number of medics in the Commons and will bolster the next generation of health champions following the departure of Dr Howard Stoate, Dr Doug Naysmith and Dr Brian Iddon at the election. Colonel Bob Stewart, who was awarded the Distinguished Service Order for gallantry in Bosnia, brings front line military experience. No stranger to politics, he has met or briefed every Prime Minister since Ted Heath and his counsel will no doubt be welcome as David Cameron inherits some difficult decisions around defence spending. Angie Bray gave up her seat in the London Assembly to focus on her campaign, whilst former South West MEP, Neil Parish will inherit Angela Browning’s comfortable majority in Tiverton and Honiton. Businessman David Rutley brings ‘real world experience’ garnered as a senior executive in Asda, PepsiCo, Halifax General Insurance and Barclays. He also has an impressive record working as a Special Adviser in the last Conservative Government. Rutley is not the only candidate with such experience. Former Chief of Staff to Oliver Letwin MP and Advisory Board Member of Iain Duncan-Smith’s Centre for Social Justice, Robert Halfon is a well established member of the Cameroon crowd and a sure bet to overturn Bill Rammell’s majority of 230. He will likely be joined by Matthew Hancock, George Osborne’s Chief of Staff, Dominic Raab, Chief of Staff to Shadow Justice Secretary Dominic Grieve MP, and Claire Perry, also from the Shadow Chancellor’s team.
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