The Next Generation: Parliamentary Candidates to Watch 2010 is going to mark a watershed in British . The General Election could see the greatest influx of new Members into the Chamber since the Second World War. The expenses scandal last year, for all its tabloid headlines, has forced the party leaders to re-examine their selection processes, and has resulted in local parties looking beyond the standard criteria for candidates. The result has been a wave of genuinely fascinating, intellectual and professionally astute candidates. Following on from the much acclaimed edition last year, Insight Public Affairs have continued to examine the next generation of MPs. In this – the second edition – we profile a further 32 candidates – most of whom have been selected in the recent months and witnessed heightened prominence in the parties and the media. As before, the so called ‘ones to watch’ have been selected for their ability, potential and ambition to become influential political players in British politics after the forthcoming election. Please send your comments on this publication to [email protected]

Contents Introduction Labour PPCs John Lehal 1 24 Lillian Greenwood 25 Conservative PPCs Liz Kendall 26 Angie Bray 3 27 4 28 5 Emilie Oldknow 29 6 30 Matthew Hancock 7 31 8 Anas Sarwar 32 9 John Woodcock 33 10 11 Lib Dem PPCs 12 35 All polling data has Bridget Fox 36 been sourced from 13 Thrasher & Rawlings . 14 Retiring MPs Insight Public Affairs 15 would like to express Stephen Phillips 16 Retiring MPs and selected PPCs 38 their thanks to the PPC data analysis 42 contributors who have Daniel Poulter 17 helped produce this 18 New constituencies and boundary publication. changes in marginal seats 43 David Rutley 19 Cover illustration by Julian Smith 20 Morten Morland About Insight Public Affairs 21 Edited by: 22 About Insight Public Affairs 44 Stephanie Reeves THE NEXT GENERATION: PARLIAMENTARY CANDIDATES TO WATCH Introduction

In July 2009, we published volume one of Insight’s ‘Parliamentary Candidates to Watch’ – the candidates we expect to be the rising stars after the next election. Since then, there has been a rush of MPs from all parties who have announced their intention to stand down from safe seats. Many have become jaded by the expenses scandal and public disdain for politics and politicians. Some have been asked by party hierarchies to stand aside to give the next generation of candidates a chance. The last six months have been a blur of short-listing and selections in seats that many assumed would not become available for many years. With so many new candidates – soon to become new MPs – arriving on the scene, we thought it necessary to produce a second volume of our guide to the best PPCs – profiling candidates we judge to be the Ministers and Shadow Ministers of tomorrow. Looking through the list, several are career politicians, having worked their way up the ranks through the Special Adviser route or as party apparatchiks. These candidates will hit the ground sprinting in the early hours of 7 May 2010 – staff recruited; clear about the campaigns they will fight; having selected their policy priorities; and ready to deliver their contribution on the floor of House in what will be one of 250 Maiden Speeches. Those who get to grips quickly with Westminster life and impress their new leaders, are promised the opportunity to follow in the footsteps of the likes of , , and – to make it to the junior ministerial or shadow ministerial ranks soon after taking their seats. Certainly the likes of Bob Stewart and Kate Green have in their professional lives made considerable impact and could quickly be making their contribution from the front bench. At the same time, John Woodcock and Matthew Hancock have political experience gained in the cut and thrust of the Westminster village, and with their knowledge of Westminster and Whitehall will be quickly moving up the ranks. We have now profiled over 60 candidates in total, and we know there are still several MPs still to join the 138 who have announce their retirements, and countless Conservative Associations and CLPs still to select their candidates. We will resist publishing a third tranche, but will continue to publish occasional briefings and analysis in the run-up to the election and beyond. When I spoke to a candidate profiled in the first volume, they suggested a more interesting exercise would be to see who from the amalgamated list would make an ‘A’ list of 30... we will resist that temptation too! Come the election, many psephologists will be watching to see whether the Conservatives capture their 117 seats to form a majority. Others will want to know which way the bellweather constituencies such as Derby North, Kingswood, Hyndburn and East Renfrewshire fall. At Insight’s election night party we’ll be paying extra attention to how many of our 62 profiled candidates have made it over the next hurdle. All of us in political advocacy wait with baited breath to see what the most eagerly awaited election in a generation holds in store. Beyond that, we are busy predicting the legislation likely to feature in the Queen’s Speech on 12 May 2010, and assessing its impact. We hope that this guide will give you a flavour of those people who will be shaping the political landscape the other side of May 2010.

John Lehal Managing Director

1 THE NEXT GENERATION: PARLIAMENTARY CANDIDATES TO WATCH What they bring to the party: Conservative PPCs James Tyrrell Director, Insight Public Affairs

With 565 Conservative Party candidates selected so far, the race to find the next generation of Conservative MPs is nearly over. The Candidate Selection team, headed by John Maples MP, has succeeded in recent months in broadening and deepening the diversity of candidates on offer. Local associations and electorate have also played a big part with the growing number of open-primaries, ensuring candidates selected have the support of both the party and the local community. ’s desire to groom a new intake of political ‘outsiders’, to provide a breath of fresh air to the voting public in the wake of the ‘anti-politics’ backlash surrounding the expenses scandal has been successful, with a former miner, an author, retired military personnel, entrepreneurs and social workers selected. Since his announcement in May to allow people who have not even been members of the party to stand for the Conservatives, more than 4,000 expressions of interest have been received by CCHQ. This was certainly alluring to Rory Stewart, who confessed to being an active supporter of Labour in his teens. The Harvard professor and now PPC for Penrith and the Borders, has an impressive CV that boasts a career in the army, as a diplomat and time spent as a deputy governor in Iraq. His achievements include setting up a charity in and taking time to walk across the entire country. But despite the strides made to select candidates from a diverse background, many have enjoyed a privileged upbringing – a high proportion have been privately educated. However, the party has been right to concentrate on aspects of diversity outside social class and educational background, hence the new intake will likely feature more women, gay and ethnic minority candidates. But, fighting on the basis of people’s backgrounds is something the average voter just isn’t interested in. More important will be what the candidates can bring to the party. Our selection of “Ones to Watch” highlights a number of candidates who are experts in their field. From law, Stephen Phillips became one of the youngest QCs in the country at the age of only 38 and has recently been appointed as a Crown Court Recorder, whilst Fiona Bruce is well-regarded as a reputable solicitor in the North West. Dr Daniel Poulter and Dr Phillip Lee will join a number of medics in the Commons and will bolster the next generation of health champions following the departure of Dr Howard Stoate, Dr Doug Naysmith and Dr Brian Iddon at the election. Colonel Bob Stewart, who was awarded the Distinguished Service Order for gallantry in Bosnia, brings front line military experience. No stranger to politics, he has met or briefed every Prime Minister since Ted Heath and his counsel will no doubt be welcome as David Cameron inherits some difficult decisions around defence spending. Angie Bray gave up her seat in the Assembly to focus on her campaign, whilst former South West MEP, Neil Parish will inherit Angela Browning’s comfortable majority in Tiverton and Honiton. Businessman David Rutley brings ‘real world experience’ garnered as a senior executive in Asda, PepsiCo, Halifax General Insurance and Barclays. He also has an impressive record working as a Special Adviser in the last Conservative Government. Rutley is not the only candidate with such experience. Former Chief of Staff to MP and Advisory Board Member of Iain Duncan-Smith’s Centre for Social Justice, Robert Halfon is a well established member of the Cameroon crowd and a sure bet to overturn Bill Rammell’s majority of 230. He will likely be joined by Matthew Hancock, George Osborne’s Chief of Staff, Dominic Raab, Chief of Staff to Shadow Justice Secretary Dominic Grieve MP, and Claire Perry, also from the Shadow Chancellor’s team. Despite the leaderships’ efforts to introduce 50:50 male-female shortlists, about a third of candidates selected in top and target seats have been women, although our analysis of selections shows that women have been selected in just 9 of the 36 very safest seats being vacated by Conservative MPs at the next election. Interesting then that Caroline Dineage, and Fiona Bruce all won handsomely in open primary and full postal ballots. Open primaries in the seats yet to select candidates may be the best way for the party leadership to fulfil their ambition to see more women selected in Conservative-held seats.

2 THE NEXT GENERATION: PARLIAMENTARY CANDIDATES TO WATCH Angie Bray

CANDIDATE: Conservative PPC for Ealing Central and Acton MAJORITY: 839 (2 .16%) SWING REQUIRED: 1.08% INCUMBENT: Andy Slaughter MP (Labour)

BACKGROUND She stood down from the London Assembly in An established broadcaster, Conservative Central 2008 to concentrate on her campaign, saying Office staffer and latterly London Assembly Member, “I certainly would not have taken on a full-time Bray has a CV that is both diverse and impressive to job in the last couple of years while grappling with make her a good bet for high office in any future the constituency”. Her determination should Conservative Government. Before catching the reward her with victory in May. politics bug, Bray enjoyed a successful career in broadcasting; working for British Forces Broadcasting CONSTITUENCY PROFILE in Gibraltar where she presented the daily tea time The new constituency of Ealing Central and Acton show, before moving to London where she spent has come about as a result of the Boundary eight years with LBC radio, covering London issues. Commission’s redrawing of the old Ealing, Acton and Shepherd’s Bush constituency. The current Like many before her, she took her broadcasting incumbent is Labour MP, Andy Slaughter. The old expertise and put it to good use in political constituency linked Ealing and Acton with multi communications – taking a role in the Conservative cultural Shepherd’s Bush and White City. The new Party Press Office then becoming press secretary to constituency will be more suburban and more the Chairman of the Party, . In 1997 she Conservative. Figures suggest that although there is stood as the Conservative Candidate in East Ham. a notional Labour majority, Ealing Central and Acton looks set to be one of the closest three way From 2000, Bray served two terms as a member marginals in the country. of the London Assembly, representing London West Central, a constituency covering Westminster, Hammersmith and , and Kensington and Chelsea. During her time in the London Assembly, Bray served as leader of the Conservative group and spokesperson on issues including Transport, Arts and Culture and the Olympics. If she wins her seat, Bray will follow Andrew Pelling ( Central), (Bromley and Chislehurst) and (Hackney South and Shoreditch) as AM’s who successfully made the transition from City Hall to Westminster.

“Angie combines holding strong views with a great sense of fun. She has been fearless in tackling Red Ken on the London Assembly .” Councillor Harry Phibbs

CONTACT A: 39 Broughton Road, London W13 8QW E: [email protected] T: 020 8579 0107 W: www.angiebray.org.uk

3 THE NEXT GENERATION: PARLIAMENTARY CANDIDATES TO WATCH Fiona Bruce

CANDIDATE: Conservative PPC for MAJORITY: 8,246 (17.7%) INCUMBENT: Lady Ann Winterton MP (Conservative)

BACKGROUND Bruce won the Congleton Selection convincingly in Businesswoman Bruce heads up Fiona Bruce & Co. the first ballot of an Open Primary of which she is LLP, one of Warrington’s leading Law Firms, something of a veteran. When she contested which she founded and has developed over the Warrington South in 2005 her selection was past 20 years. noteworthy for being the Conservative’s first ever attempt at an open selection. There was deep Bruce has garnered a considerable reputation for her concern that rival parties would attempt to influence skills in business, having been awarded the Small the result but in the event, they didn’t and Fiona’s Business Bureau’s Businesswoman of the Year victory gave the party the confidence to use them Award and being voted ‘Most Inspiring Business more widely. Her 2005 election campaign in Woman’ by SHE Magazine. Fiona Bruce & Co. LLP Warrington South was described as ‘feisty’; she was the first sole practice Law Firm in the country to halved Labour’s majority and was widely praised. gain the Investors in People Award and also the Law More recently, Bruce narrowly missed out on Society Lexcel Award. In addition to developing selection for the Skipton and Ripon, Penrith Fiona Bruce & Co. LLP, she setup a Free Legal Advice and the Border and Macclesfield seats before Clinic in Latchford over 15 years ago, which she still winning Congleton. oversees today, to provide assistance to those with no access to a CAB. Last year, she co-founded an CONSTITUENCY PROFILE innovative high street Advice Centre in Widnes The Congleton constituency is made up of small which helps local people with problems such as towns and villages interspersed with rural businesses debts, drug abuse and teenage pregnancy. and farms. It is strong commuter territory by road to and Liverpool, with the M6 dissecting Bruce has been a Councillor on the Unitary Council the constituency, and by rail to London, with the of Warrington for six years since she won a ward outskirts of Crewe fringing the southern tips of thought safe by Labour in 2004. She subsequently the constituency. increased her majority at the next election and was appointed an Executive Councillor with responsibility The current incumbent, Lady Ann Winterton, has for Value for Money and then Finance as well. represented Congleton since 1983. She is standing down at the next election in the wake of the expenses As a Councillor, her initiative and drive caught the scandal in which Winterton and her husband, eye of then Conservative leader, , MP Sir , were investigated by the to whom Bruce referred the case of 69-year-old Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards. Margaret Dixon, one of Fiona’s Council ward constituents with a health difficulty. Michael Howard raised this at Prime Minister’s Question Time to highlight failures in the , putting Labour on the back-foot over health at the outset of the 2005 General Election campaign.

“I couldn’t be more pleased, she is going to be a wonderful, wonderful MP.” Tim Montgomerie, Conservative Home

CONTACT A: Justice House, 3 Grappenhall Road, E: [email protected] Stockton Heath, Warrington, W: www.fionabruce.co.uk Cheshire WA4 2AH T: 01270 625144 4 THE NEXT GENERATION: PARLIAMENTARY CANDIDATES TO WATCH John Glen

CANDIDATE: Conservative PPC for Salisbury MAJORITY: 8,860 (19.5%) INCUMBENT: Robert Key MP (Conservative)

BACKGROUND Between 2000 and 2001, Glen returned to advise Born and raised in Lacock, Wiltshire, Glen can attest as Head of the Political Section in to a three generation connection with Salisbury. His Conservative Central Office, assisting with the mother was born in the city, his grandparents met briefing for Prime Ministers’ Questions. On his and married in Salisbury, and his great-grandfather departure from Accenture, Glenn went on to work ran the gas works during the Second World War. full time as Deputy Director and subsequently Glen was selected at an open primary in front of a Director, of the Conservative Research Department 500 strong crowd in January 2010. His competition, under Michael Howard and David Cameron. It was and Zehra Zaidi, put up a good fight during this time that Glen set up the secretariat for but it was not enough with Glen taking victory on the the Conservative Party’s Policy Review Groups. second ballot. Glen was supported by Salisbury resident Tim Montgomerie, editor of ConHome in his Glen’s principal area of policy interest is education, selection. Glen was a finalist in the Tiverton and and he is a board member of the centre for policy Honiton selection, but appears to have held out for studies in foreign affairs having travelled to South another seat until Robert Key announced his Africa, Uganda and the Maldives in his capacity as retirement in December 2009. policy advisor for the Westminster Foundation for Democracy. This will not be the first time that Glen Educated at King Edwards School in Bath, where he has fought for a parliamentary seat – he stood as was Head Boy, Glen went on to read Modern History the Conservative candidate for Plymouth Devonport at Oxford University. Liked by his peers, he served as in 2001. Glen is married to Emma and has two JCR President in 1995, he was active in student step-children. Actively involved in his church, Glen is welfare and elected as one of two class also a Patron of Mansfield College Oxford and sits as representatives whilst subsequently studying for his a Justice of the Peace in Westminster. MBA at Cambridge, completing his Oxbridge double. CONSTITUENCY PROFILE Before making the leap into politics Glen worked as The Salisbury seat returned William Pitt the Younger a Senior Advisor to the Global Head of Strategy at as Prime Minister in the eighteenth century. It Accenture from 1997 to 2004. In addition to heading includes the City of Salisbury itself and Stonehenge. up the in-house think tank, Glen coordinated the Large parts of this Wiltshire constituency have firm’s participation in the World Economic Forum military links and a notable portion represents (Davos) and has led leadership projects on military training ground. It has been a Conservative globalisation and sustainability. His particular area of seat since 1945 and looks set to remain so after expertise has developed in the oil and gas industries. May. Current incumbent, Robert Key, will vacate the seat where he was re-elected with a majority of Glen’s political career began when he worked as a 11,1 42 in 2005. researcher to Michael Bates MP (now Lord Bates) and in the run-up to the 1997 election.

“I have no doubt John will play a significant role in a future Conservative Government. He has absolute integrity, excellent political instincts and is highly regarded at all levels in the Party.” Rt Hon William Hague MP

CONTACT A: The Morrison Hall, 12 Brown Street, E: [email protected] Salisbury SP1 1HE W: www.salisburyconservatives.com T: 01722 333 141

5 THE NEXT GENERATION: PARLIAMENTARY CANDIDATES TO WATCH Robert Halfon

CANDIDATE: Conservative PPC for Harlow MAJORITY: 230 (0.58%) INCUMBENT: Bill Rammell MP (Labour)

BACKGROUND traffic congestion in the constituency. Two years ago A prominent fixture on the Conservative scene for a he set upwww.fedupwithharlowtraffic.com which calls number of years, Halfon has the confidence of the for an extra by-pass on the M11 to relieve much of the party leadership and constituency association in traffic strain through the town. contesting the seat for a third time this year having first been elected PPC for Harlow in 1999. Halfon is very interested in literacy and educational attainment. He is a former Governor of Passmores Having gained a BA in Politics and a Masters in School and during his campaign in Harlow he has Russian and Eastern Europe Studies from Exeter visited numerous schools. Given this passion, and University, Halfon went on to become Chief of Staff with his experience at the CSJ, it is likely that Halfon to Oliver Letwin MP, before becoming a political will push for a place on the Children, Schools and consultant to a number of organisations including Families Select Committee in the next Parliament. Conservative Friends of Israel. He is an advisory board member for the Centre for Social Justice and Halfon enjoys football and supports both Harlow alongside William Hague, Tim Montgomerie and Football Club and is a season ticket holder for Stanley Kalms, Halfon established the Renewing One Chelsea. In 2007 and 2009, he completed sponsored Nation Unit which sought to develop deeper links swims for the Alzheimer’s Society and lost two stone with Britain’s voluntary, community and faith sectors on a sponsored diet for Harlow Mind in 2004. in order to better understand today’s social CONSTITUENCY PROFILE challenges . In doing so, Halfon established himself There are considerable problems with social housing as the archetypal compassionate Conservative and and areas of deprivation in Harlow that, on the this has been echoed in his expeditions to Rwanda surface, would make it an unlikely Conservative win. with MP to teach English and to However, the predicted national swing in 2010 better understand the impact of the genocide on the should be enough to unseat Bill Rammell. Despite country. He has written extensively on the subject. Rammell’s strong hold on the constituency, Halfon He is also a member of Conservative Way Forward. has maintained an excellent campaign throughout Halfon honed his campaign skills as Parish Councillor his candidacy and has solidified his support. for Roydon and has maintained a strong campaign in Harlow which should see him take this seat at the next Election. He is a Trustee of Harlow Employability, a former Patron of the Harlow Homeless Centre and has been particularly vocal in his campaign to tackle

“After ten years of being a Parliamentary Candidate for Harlow and fighting two elections already (losing by 97 votes last time), I know that the work is never completed and there is still so much to do. I have to continue to campaign day and night and prove to people that I deserve the chance to serve as Harlow’s next MP.” Robert Halfon

CONTACT A: Latton Bush Centre, E: [email protected] Southern Way, Harlow, W: www.roberthalfon.org.uk CM18 7BL T: 01279 429 251 6 THE NEXT GENERATION: PARLIAMENTARY CANDIDATES TO WATCH Matthew Hancock

CANDIDATE: Conservative PPC for Suffolk West MAJORITY: 8,735 (19.92%) INCUMBENT: Richard Spring MP (Conservative)

BACKGROUND His experience of the Conservative Party is not Hancock had been scheduled to attend the annual confined to advising senior Shadow Cabinet World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, in mid Ministers, however. He joined the Party in 1999 and January 2010 with the rest of Conservative high has campaigned at dozens of by-elections, run for command, but cancelled the visit after being placed council seats and volunteered as an agent at the on the final shortlist of six candidates for West 2001 election. He is currently Treasurer of his local Suffolk. The decision to stay behind was clearly Association. the right one as 31 year old Hancock beat in the final round by 88 votes to 81 to Something of an all round action man, Hancock took clinch victory. two months out to go to the Arctic and as part of his training programme lugged tyres in Hyde Park Born and raised in Cheshire, Hancock’s family ran at 6am. He holds the World Record for the most a small farm outside Maples. He went on to read northerly game of cricket played at the North Pole. Politics, Philosophy and Economics at Oxford He is married to Martha and they have two young University, graduating with a first class degree and children, Hope and Ferdinand. this was followed by a Masters at Cambridge in Economics. After a stint working for the family CONSTITUENCY PROFILE computer software business in Cheshire, Hancock Current MP, Richard Spring is standing down at the was soon snapped up by the Bank of next election and bequeaths a majority of nearly where he worked as an economist in the Monetary 9 000 to Hancock. The seat itself is fairly diverse, Assessment and Strategy Division for five years. the largest town is Haverhill and is an industrial manufacturing town, although much of the In 2005, Hancock joined Shadow Chancellor, George constituency is rural. There are some relatively Osborne’s team as Chief of Staff. He is responsible insignificant boundary changes which see it lose for a twelve strong team and advises Cameron, parts of Pakenham, Cavendish and Horringer and Osborne and Clarke on developing Treasury policy in Whelnetham, but gain tiny parts of Risby and particular helping businesses through the recession Chedburgh. The Northern part of the seat is and tackling the deficit. He becomes the second home to two huge United States Air Force bases, member of Osborne’s team to be selected for a safe RAF Mildenhall (home of the 100th Air Refueling constituency following Claire Perry’s selection in Wing) and RAF Lakenheath (home of the 48th Devizes. He made no secret of his desire to follow Fighter Wing). Osborne in representing a Cheshire constituency, and talked of “putting down roots again” in the county when he was a finalist in the Congleton selection.

“Hancock has the aura of a person who could go to the very top of the Tory party and will probably find himself fast tracked into the Cabinet.” Graham Dines, East Anglian Daily Times

CONTACT A: 4a Exeter Road, Newmarket, E: [email protected] Suffolk CB8 8LT T: 01638 565 945

7 THE NEXT GENERATION: PARLIAMENTARY CANDIDATES TO WATCH Sajid Javid

CANDIDATE: Conservative PPC for MAJORITY: 10,080 (21.08%) INCUMBENT: Julie Kirkbride MP (Conservative)

BACKGROUND Javid has a commendable record in community 40 year old businessman and private investor, Javid work; he raised £710,000 in a single event for the was selected as the Conservative Candidate for British Red Cross and has led a charity expedition to Bromsgrove on the 6th February 2010. He succeeds the summit of Mount Kilimanjaro for Help the Aged. Julie Kirkbride, who has a 10,000 majority. Speaking He is also a Trustee of Westminster Children’s at the selection, Javid described it as ‘an honour’ to Society, London’s largest childcare charity. have been shortlisted for Bromsgrove where he eventually took 70% of the vote against Charles CONSTITUENCY PROFILE Barwell to clinch victory. Previously Javid came second Only once, at the 1971 by-election, has this seat in Esher & Walton, and in Orpington where there was fallen from Conservative hands. Julie Kirkbride has a tie in the fifth and final ballot with Jo Johnson. represented the seat since 1997 and recently announced that she would not be standing at the Javid’s father was a bus driver and he is one of five next election. Bromsgrove is situated in the north east sons. He attended state schools and won a place at of and is south west of Birmingham. Exeter University to study Economics and Politics. The seat includes the town of Bromsgrove as well as At 24, Javid became the youngest Vice President in areas of the Birmingham suburbs and several small history of Chase Manhattan Bank, one of the villages. The greatest political issues in the seat are a world’s largest companies and was later headhunted lack school places, conflict regarding housing targets by Deutsche Bank where he specialised in and the encroachment on to green belt land and emerging markets. He is married to Laura and the demise of MG Rover and a subsequent lack of they have four children. local employment. He joined the Party 21 years ago and has been an active volunteer since. Whilst at university he ran the Conservative Association with David Burrows MP and Robert Halfon and the Exeter Enterprise Forum with Tim Montgomerie, a campaign that attempted to promote Capitalism to students and produced leaflets for the 1990 Party Conference opposing ERM membership. Montgomerie describes him as “a big believer in the work of the Centre for Social Justice and a first class economic thinker from his very successful years in emerging market finance”.

“Sajid has been a passionate advocate of social justice from the very beginning. He has the compassion and vision we desperately need in the House.” Philippa Stroud, Executive Director, Centre for Social Justice

CONTACT A: 37 Worcester Road, Bromsgrove, E: [email protected] Worcestershire B61 7DN W: www.sajidjavid.com T: 01527 872135

8 THE NEXT GENERATION: PARLIAMENTARY CANDIDATES TO WATCH Jo Johnson

CANDIDATE: Conservative PPC for Orpington MAJORITY: 5,221 (10.79%) INCUMBENT: John Horam MP (Conservative)

BACKGROUND British Financial Journalism. Previous ‘Heads of Lex’ With the undeniable family resemblance and include Nigel Lawson, former Chancellor of the matching CVs – Brussels, Eton, Balliol College and a Exchequer, Martin Taylor, former chief executive of career in journalism – comparisons between Jo and Barclays Bank, and Richard Lambert, director-general his older brother, Boris, are inevitable. However, of the Confederation of British Industry. He was scratch the surface and people who know both men based in New Delhi as the ’ South will highlight the different styles which set the Asia bureau chief, leading the team of FT journalists brothers apart. For a start, younger brother Jo has that cover the region including , Afghanistan bided his time before his move into frontline politics, and Sri Lanka. establishing himself first as one of the UK’s most respected, and powerful, financial journalists and Johnson lives in Camden with his wife, Milly commentators. Perhaps in response to his older Gentleman, a journalist for and the brother’s persona, Jo brings a more meticulous, daughter of artist and designer David Gentleman. sober and serious approach to politics. They have two children. Born in 1971, he began his schooling in Brussels, at CONSTITUENCY PROFILE the European School in Uccle, before attending The Orpington is, geographically, the largest seat in Hall School in Hampstead, London, Ashdown House London. It includes large parts of open School in East Sussex, and then . In countryside between Farnborough and Biggin Hill 1991, he went to Balliol College, Oxford to read aerodrome but mostly it comprises of leafy suburbia Modern History. He won the Hollway Scholarship at including Orpington itself, Petts Wood, Farnborough, Balliol, edited Isis, the Oxford University student Chelsfield, Biggin Hill and the more industrial magazine, and was awarded a First Class degree in St Mary Cray. both Honour Moderations and Finals. A fluent French It is a traditional suburban Conservative stronghold speaker, he went on to postgraduate study on the despite the Liberal Democrats putting up a strong continent and has degrees from two further leading opposition over the years. The 1962 by-election in European universities, gaining an MBA from INSEAD Orpington, when the Tories lost to the Liberal in 2000 and a licence spéciale with distinction in candidate Eric Lubbock with a massive swing of 1995 from the Institut d’Etudes Européennes at the 26.5%, was a watershed for British politics and Université Libre de Bruxelles, where he was a more recently the Liberal Democrats came close in Wiener-Anspach Fellow. the 2001 election. However this seems to have Johnson has worked as an investment banker for now receded. Deutsche Bank and in 1997 joined the Financial Times. Currently Johnson is the head of the Lex Column, one of the most influential positions in

“Jo Johnson’s recent selection showed the potency of the Johnson brand.” Tim Montgomerie, Conservative Home

CONTACT A: 6 Sevenoaks Road, Orpington BR6 9JJ E: [email protected]

9 THE NEXT GENERATION: PARLIAMENTARY CANDIDATES TO WATCH Kwasi Kwarteng

CANDIDATE: Conservative PPC for Spelthorne MAJORITY: 9,936 (23.2%) INCUMBENT: David Wilshire MP (Conservative)

BACKGROUND Kwarteng represents a breath of fresh air in this Kwarteng’s parents lived in Ghana before moving seat and certainly has a lot to offer both in the to London where he was born in 1975. He won a constituency and on Cameron’s frontbenches. Despite scholarship to Eton and from there went to Cambridge the furore of last year’s expense scandal, Spelthorne and Harvard before returning to Cambridge to looks set to return another Conservative member and complete a doctorate in Economic History. with Kwarteng’s success so far he will certainly be one to watch after the next General Election. During his career, Kwarteng has worked as an investment analyst, author and a journalist. He Kwarteng is currently writing a book about the became Chairman of the Bow Group in 2006 and international legacy of the British Empire entitled was a candidate for the London Assembly in 2008. ‘Ghosts of Empire’. He also stood as the Conservative Candidate for Brent East at the General Election in 2005. CONSTITUENCY PROFILE Historically, this is a strong Conservative seat having At the Spelthorne selection, 490 people turned out returned Conservative members to Parliament since to vote in the open primary despite the snowy the 1950’s. This Middlesex constituency has more in conditions in early January, and local association common with a suburban seat as it is firmly in members were out-numbered two to one by local the residential commuter belt. residents. Kwarteng beat five other candidates: Philippa Broom, Katy Bourne, Michael McManus, The current incumbent, David Wilshire MP, was Lynne Hack, and Therese Coffey. He inherits David elected to represent Spelthorne in 1987 but last year Wilshire MP’s majority of nearly 10,000. Local decided to stand down following the expenses Association Chairman, Graeme Reid, described scandal. his efforts on the selection night as having “captured the audience’s confidence. With Spelthorne Conservatives united behind him, he is sure to go on and inspire the rest of the electorate.”

“Kwasi Kwarteng is one of the most intellectually able people I know and would make an outstanding MP.”

CONTACT A: 55 Cherry Orchard, Staines, E: [email protected] Middlesex TW18 2SQ W: www.kwart2010.com

10 THE NEXT GENERATION: PARLIAMENTARY CANDIDATES TO WATCH Dr Phillip Lee

CANDIDATE: Conservative PPC for Bracknell MAJORITY: 10,037 (21.96%) INCUMBENT: Andrew Mackay MP (Conservative)

BACKGROUND Lee has been active in local politics for many years, Born in in 1970, Lee was educated joining Beaconsfield Conservative Association in at Sir William Borlase’s in Marlow, 1992. In 2001, Lee successfully ran in a local council before studying Human Biology and Biological by-election in Beaconsfield, achieving a significant Anthropology at King’s College London and Keble swing from the Liberal Democrats. College, Oxford, and then medicine at St Mary’s Hospital Medical School at . In the 2005 General Election, Lee was the Conservative Party Candidate for Blaenau Gwent in Lee currently lives in Bisham, Berkshire and works South . In May 2006, Lee was selected for as a part-time GP throughout the Thames Valley. the Conservative Party Priority List of Candidates. He was selected for Bracknell at an open primary in Outside of politics and medicine, Lee has a real October 2009, where he was selected ahead of passion for travelling, having spent months exploring Rory Stewart who came second, and Europe, the Middle East, Asia, North America and who was placed third. the South Pacific. An all round sportsman, Lee also enjoys football, rugby, cricket and skiing. CONSTITUENCY PROFILE The Bracknell constituency is relatively new having Lee’s medical background will undoubtedly be a only been created 40 years ago. The town has weighty factor in the causes he champions as an grown rapidly in the past few years and sits in the MP. He has previously written for ConHome about affluent M4 corridor. Crowthorne, Sandhurst and the lack of scientists and mathematicians in the Finchampstead are also in the constituency. Commons and with the number of specialist health Congestion and planning are therefore among the advocates from all parties standing down at the next largest issues facing the town. election, Lee will be redressing the balance. In addition to this healthcare experience, he has a strong interest in energy security policy.

“Phillip has precisely the right mix of warmth and ability which makes for a winning candidate, and I know he will be a superb asset to the next Conservative government.” Rt Hon Dominic Grieve MP

CONTACT A: 10 Milbanke Court, Milbanke Way, E: [email protected] Western Road, Bracknell RG12 1RP W: www.philip-lee.com T: 01344 868286

11 THE NEXT GENERATION: PARLIAMENTARY CANDIDATES TO WATCH Jonathan Lord

CANDIDATE: Conservative PPC for Woking MAJORITY: 6,612 (14.4%) INCUMBENT: Humphrey Malins MP (Conservative)

BACKGROUND CONSTITUENCY PROFILE Lord was selected as the Conservative candidate for Woking itself is commuter territory being located the Woking constituency after the current MP, near to London and has good rail links. However Humphrey Malins, decided to stand down last there are local concerns about the state of the road spring. Lord faced an open primary and fought off network in the constituency and the impact that three other candidates Dr Lynne Hack, Dr. Fiona Heathrow’s Terminal 5 has had on congestion Kemp and Stephen Phillips QC to clinch victory on through the area. the first ballot. A steadfastly secure Conservative seat, Lord looks set Lord was a director of Saatchi and Saatchi until to sweep into Westminster come the next election. 2000 where he ran international campaigns for However with voter apathy and a strong local Liberal Hewlett-Packard across Europe, Africa and the Democrat opposition it will be interesting to see the Middle East. He is currently a marketing consultant, strength of his majority. using his media and communications skills to help and advise medium and small sized businesses. Between 1994 and 2002, Lord was a Councillor in the City of Westminster for the Little Venice Ward. During this time he was also Deputy Leader of Westminster Council and Chairman of the Environment Committee. Born in , he contested the Oldham West and Royton constituency in 1997 taking 10,693 (23.4%) of the vote. Last year, he was elected to Surrey County Council and he is currently the Chairman of the Conservative Association. Lord was educated at Shrewsbury School and at Merton College, Oxford. Whilst at Oxford he was president of the Oxford University Conservative Association (1983). He is married to Caroline and has a son and a daughter. They currently live in Blackheath, Guildford, just five miles from the Woking constituency.

“Jonathan Lord is a name to watch – intelligent, committed, energetic and with outstanding media and communications experience.” MP

CONTACT A: Churchill House, Chobham Road, E: [email protected] Woking, Surrey GU21 4AA W: www.wokingconservatives.org.uk T: 01483 773384

12 THE NEXT GENERATION: PARLIAMENTARY CANDIDATES TO WATCH Penny Mordaunt

CANDIDATE: Conservative PPC for Portsmouth North MAJORITY: 300 (0.3%) SWING REQUIRED: 0.38% INCUMBENT: Sarah McCarthy-Fry MP (Labour)

BACKGROUND Mordaunt was first selected to contest Portsmouth Born in 1973, Penny was two when her family moved North in November 2003 for the 2005 election. to Portsmouth. Her father was in the Parachute Reselected in January 2006, Mordaunt has to overturn Regiment before becoming a teacher and later a youth a 300 notional Labour majority to win in 2010. worker for Hampshire Council. Her mother was a Mordaunt has come out in fierce opposition to women special needs teacher and her stepmother is also a only shortlists declaring that such lists would only local primary school teacher. produce MPs who ‘will always be seen as second rate’. Mordaunt was educated at Oaklands RC Even with the pressures of working while fighting for a Comprehensive School and then the University of Parliamentary seat, Mordaunt is a Royal Navy reservist Reading where she read Philosophy. During this time and is training at King Alfred on Whale Island. she was also elected President of the Students’ Union. CONSTITUENCY PROFILE Mordaunt started her professional career in The constituency of Portsmouth North comprises of communications and has been Communications residential estates and suburbs on the main land as Director of Kensington and Chelsea Council, the well as the ferry terminals of Portsea Island. The seat National Lottery and the Freight Transport Association therefore presents some interesting social challenges where she supported British truckers during the French and the local electorate have, until recently, favoured blockades. Mordaunt has since developed a niche as solid local Labour candidates such as Syd Rapson. a healthcare specialist. She was Director of Strategy, However, in 2005 Mordaunt won 37.8% of the vote Policy and Partnerships for Diabetes UK and currently against the current incumbent, Sarah McCarthy-Fry works as a healthcare consultant, working with MP, reducing Labour’s majority by 10% and making it various NHS programmes and charities. She is their 7th most marginal seat. particularly interested in policies affecting older people and in 2009 helped set up a Centre for Social Justice Mordaunt has fought a powerful campaign on key Commission for older people. issues in Portsmouth such as transport and congestion and has set up various volunteering projects to Penny’s background in political campaigning and improve health, education, the environment and experience in corporate communications have support local charities. undoubtedly bolstered her political career. She was Head of Youth for the Conservatives under and then Head of Broadcasting under William Hague. Mordaunt has also worked across the water as Head of Foreign Press to US President George Bush during his first presidential election in 2000. On her return to the UK, she was Chief of Staff to David Willetts during the 2005 Conservative leadership campaign.

“Smart, focussed and hardworking, with a track record of improving quality of life for hundreds of people. Penny will be a real asset on the green benches.” Rt Hon William Hague MP

CONTACT A: 19 South Street, Portsmouth PO9 1BU E: [email protected] T: 02392 484 794 W: www.pennymordaunt.com

13 THE NEXT GENERATION: PARLIAMENTARY CANDIDATES TO WATCH Neil Parish

CANDIDATE: Conservative PPC for Tiverton and Honiton MAJORITY: 9,007 (17.5%) INCUMBENT: Angela Browning MP (Conservative)

BACKGROUND Parish was selected to contest the seat over three Parish cut his political teeth in local politics, serving years ago, defeating Caroline Dineage, Vicky Ford as District and County Councillor in before and John Glen in the first ballot in this rural contesting , South Wales in 1997. constituency where Parish’s agricultural experience will be an asset in representing the seat in In 1999 he was elected Member of the European Westminster. Parliament for South West England. Parish represented this seat in Brussels until 2009 after CONSTITUENCY PROFILE being re-elected in 2004. Despite spending ten years The incumbent Conservative MP, Angela Browning, embroiled in European politics, Parish kept one foot is retiring at the next election. The position of firmly in the English countryside championing animal Tiverton and Honiton amongst the Liberal Democrat welfare and agriculture issues developed while strongholds in east Devonshire means it has been managing the family farm in Somerset. a hotly contested seat in the past. In 2005, the LibDems came second with 29.1% of the vote. For the duration of his time in Brussels, Parish was a However, it is likely that the largely rural constituency member of the Committee on Agriculture and Rural of Tiverton and Honiton will return a Conservative Development, presiding as Chair of the Committee Member of Parliament at the next election and from 2007 to 2009. He was appointed Conservative Parish looks set to do well. spokesman on agriculture in 2001 and was also the delegation’s Deputy Chief Whip. Parish’s most notable accolade is the formation of the ’s public inquiry into the Foot and Mouth outbreak, an inquiry that lasted for over a year. Cruel bear bile farming in China, live animal exports to the Middle East and the importation of cat and dog fur are among the other causes for which he has campaigned in Europe.

“The expenses stories have led to a break down of trust between the people and the politicians. We have to reform the system quickly so we can focus on the daily problems people are facing during these difficult times.” Neil Parish

CONTACT A: 9c Mill Park Industrial Estate, White E: [email protected] Cross Road, Woodbury Salterton, Exeter, EX5 1EL T: 01278 691717 14 THE NEXT GENERATION: PARLIAMENTARY CANDIDATES TO WATCH Claire Perry

CANDIDATE: Conservative PPC for Devizes MAJORITY: 12,259 (28.63%) INCUMBENT: Michael Ancram MP (Conservative)

BACKGROUND Perry represents the new wave of candidates being Perry was chosen as the Parliamentary Candidate selected by the Conservative Party ahead of the next for the Devizes constituency in Wiltshire at her first general election and hopes “that as a business attempt at selection. Perry beat 184 others, person and mother, I can bring a breath of fresh air including finalists Victoria Atkins, Paul Hearn, to traditional politics.” The large majority she inherits , Nadhim Zahawi and Zehra Zaidi, to be ensures she will be an MP by mid-2010. Her selected for this seat with the largest Conservative ambition and the esteem in which she’s held by majority in the region. She inherits the Devizes senior Conservatives mean she looks set to be constituency from Michael Ancram MP who is rewarded with a role in Government at some point standing down at the General Election, during any future Conservative administration. bequeathing a majority of over 12,000. CONSTITUENCY PROFILE Perry grew up in Somerset, attending her local Devizes will remain a ‘blue chip’ Conservative seat comprehensive, School, before winning a and with favourable boundary changes the place at Oxford where she read Geography. She then Conservative majority looks set to increase further. completed an MBA at Harvard. Following that she Devizes is a traditional Wiltshire farming constituency pursued a career in banking, working at Credit covering Marlborough, Pewsey and Axford. The Suisse First Boston, McKinsey and Bank of America. current incumbent, Michael Ancram – MP since Relatively new to politics – only becoming a party 1992 – is retiring for health reasons. member in 2006 – she has thrown herself into local activism, taking up the role as Chairman of her local party branch in the Salisbury constituency. She describes herself as ‘not a typical candidate’. Prior to her selection in Devizes, she worked for George Osborne MP as a political advisor in his private office, developing Treasury policy; focusing on job production and value for money in public services. It was one of the stipulations of the local party that successful applicants should have the ability and desire for a Front Bench career and Perry certainly has that. Although she remains adamant that she doesn’t want to run before she can walk she has said, “if I ever get a chance of a high position in the next Cameron Government that would be great”.

“Conservatives in Wiltshire have picked the person they think will be a future government minister.” Paul Barltrop, BBC Politics Show West

CONTACT A: 116 High Street, Marlborough, E: [email protected] Wiltshire SN8 1LZ W: www.devizesconservatives.com T: 01672 512675

15 THE NEXT GENERATION: PARLIAMENTARY CANDIDATES TO WATCH Stephen Phillips QC

CANDIDATE: Conservative PPC for Sleaford and North Hykeham MAJORITY: 12,687 (24.15%) INCUMBENT: Douglas Hogg MP (Conservative)

BACKGROUND Phillips was one of the final four on the Woking Born into a modest family but benefitting from an shortlist – unsurprising considering he grew up on assisted place to study law at Oxford, Phillips spent the Goldsworth Park Estate in Woking. Phillips’ wife brief periods with the 14th/20th King’s Hussars and was brought up in Lincolnshire, although party the Welsh Guards before being called to the Bar by activists did remark on the lack of local candidates Lincoln’s Inn in 1993. He was appointed Queen’s shortlisted. In the selection in October 2009, Phillips Counsel in 2009 and became one of the youngest beat finalists Kwasi Kwarteng, Katy Lindsay, QCs in the country at the age of only 38. He has Kay Mason, Lucille Nicholson, and Bob Stewart. recently been appointed as a Crown Court Recorder. CONSTITUENCY PROFILE Phillips has built up a successful law practice and Douglas Hogg MP stands down at the next election when not working as a barrister has also acted as an after claiming for the maintenance of his moat on advisor to the Shadow Secretary of State for his Parliamentary allowance. The constituency is Children, Schools and Families, Michael Gove MP. largely rural and comprises of villages, the southern suburbs of the City of Lincoln and small towns, He cites saving one of the only remaining the biggest being Sleaford. It is considered a safe sign-bilingual schools in the country from closure as Conservative seat. one of his most important achievements, stating that “deaf kids deserve an education just as much as Notwithstanding the moat, Phillips should have no hearing kids”. He remains Chair of the Board of difficulty in returning another Conservative victory in Governors at Frank Barnes School for Deaf Children Sleaford and North Hykeham and looks set to inherit and continues to promote Special Educational Needs. Hogg’s healthy majority at the next election. Having joined the Conservative Party in 1988 and undergoing two decades of leaflet pushing and hard graft, Phillips hopes his ‘long apprenticeship’ will finally pay off. “If I’m elected, I’m determined to pay back the country and the party which has offered me so much, by serving everyone in the Constituency as well as I possibly can”.

“Stephen has the intellect, commitment and passion needed in the House of Commons. He’ll make an excellent MP.” Michael Gove MP

CONTACT A: 6 Market Place, Sleaford, E: [email protected] Lincolnshire NG34 7SD W: www.stephenphillips.org.uk T: 01529 419000

16 THE NEXT GENERATION: PARLIAMENTARY CANDIDATES TO WATCH Dr Daniel Poulter

CANDIDATE: Conservative PPC for Central Suffolk and North Ipswich MAJORITY: 7,786 (16.7%) INCUMBENT: Sir MP (Conservative)

BACKGROUND Although not originally from the area, Poulter’s Seeing off 170 other wannabes, Poulter was fiancée Joanna grew up in mid-Suffolk and went to selected as candidate for the Conservative safe seat school in Stowmarket. He lived with his fiancée’s of Central Suffolk and North Ipswich in November parents in Great Finborough during the selection 2009. The selection was however, not without contest, and the couple have now moved to controversy with the final shortlist of six candidates Framlingham in the constituency. Poulter is working overlooking local representatives. Poulter was for the NHS in Suffolk as a locum doctor in the run selected at an open primary attended by 300 up to the General Election. members of the public. CONSTITUENCY PROFILE Educated at University, and then at Guys, Poulter succeeds Sir Michael Lord, who is standing Kings and St Thomas’ School of Medicine, Poulter down after 27 years as MP. Conservatives have held has a degree in Law and is now a practising doctor this area of Suffolk since 1951 and should have no specialising in obstetrics, gynaecology and women’s difficulty in holding on to it this year. The health. Prior to his selection as candidate in Central constituency itself stretches from Christchurch Park in Suffolk and North Ipswich, he was Deputy Leader of Ipswich to the Norfolk border at Hoxne and includes Reigate and Banstead Borough Council and is also a Eye, Framlingham, Debenham, Wickham Market, former councillor in Hastings. Although he does have Kesgrave, Westfield, Claydon, Great Blakenham and a background in politics, Poulter only decided to Bramford. It is a largely rural constituency, with the stand for Parliament late last summer in answer to exception of the northernmost suburbs of Ipswich, David Cameron’s call for new candidates with a and is made up of smallish villages. Minor boundary record of public service. He was also short-listed for changes have moved Westgate and the remainder Beckenham, the seat in which Bob Stewart was of St Margaret’s ward back into the Ipswich subsequently selected. constituency. The population tends to comprise of commuters and the retired. Poulter has helped to set up medical and lifestyle clinics for the homeless and people with drug and The largest political issues facing the seat are alcohol misuse problems. He has also served on transport and health. Suffolk is well known for its healthcare improvement committees including the poor transport links and there is a need to Surrey and Sussex Patient Experience Task Group regenerate Ipswich town centre. Ipswich Hospital which sought to improve the quality of care for older finds many of its cancer care and cardiac services patients in Surrey and Sussex Healthcare. More under threat and plans are afoot to move these recently he has contributed to a Women’s Health services outside of Suffolk. Poulter will undoubtedly Task Group promoting best practise in natural use his medical knowledge and expertise to make childbirth. the case for the retention of these frontline NHS services at Ipswich Hospital. “Dan has engaged with all aspects of society and his social conscience is his strongest asset. His lived experience, determined personality, along with his legal and medical knowledge would make him and outstanding MP.” Mr Shane Duffy (MB BS DTM&H MSC MRCOG), Clinical Director of Maternity Worldwide

CONTACT A: 19 The Business Centre, Earl Soham, E: [email protected] Suffolk IP13 7SA W: www.drdanielpoulter.com T: 01728 685148 www.centralsuffolk.co.uk

17 THE NEXT GENERATION: PARLIAMENTARY CANDIDATES TO WATCH Dominic Raab

CANDIDATE: Conservative PPC for Esher and Walton MAJORITY: 7,727 (16.14%) INCUMBENT: Ian Taylor MP (Conservative)

BACKGROUND on human rights. This passion has culminated in the Raab beat off stiff competition at one of the most publication of his first work, ‘The Assault on Liberty – popular UK open primaries, boasting a crowd of over What Went Wrong with Rights’. Critiquing Labour’s 700 people, to win the candidacy for Esher and approach to human rights and making a case for Walton. This was Raab said, the “greatest honour” a British Bill of Rights. Raab plans to continue his of his life, pledging to work hard to make his argument in a second book looking at the constituents proud of their decision. international approach of the Blair-Brown era, putting forward new British foreign policy priorities Born and raised in Buckinghamshire, Raab is another for the 21st century. of the new PPCs with a background in law – studying at both Oxford and Cambridge. Raab, a black belt 3rd Incumbent MP, Ian Taylor summed up the mood of dan in karate, boxed at university and went on to the selection meeting: “Dominic Raab came through represent the UK on the British Karate Squad. Off the convincingly because he demonstrated greater skill karate mats, Raab served as the Chief of Staff to in answering the questions, was ready to push back Shadow Justice Secretary Dominic Grieve QC MP. on some of the moderator's deliberate probes and A lawyer by trade, Raab began his career as an set out with clarity his convictions. He also showed international lawyer for Linklaters, working on project a warmth of character which matters a lot in finance, international litigation and competition law. contests such as these.” He took secondments with human rights NGO Liberty in Brussels advising on EU and WTO law. CONSTITUENCY PROFILE The Esher and Walton constituency sits on the In 2000, Raab joined the Foreign and Commonwealth London border. It is home to the highest house Office advising on a wide range of briefs from prices outside the capital and therefore must be counter-proliferation and counter-terrorism to UK classed as one of the most exclusive (and wealthy) investor protection and maritime issues. After an of the stockbroker commuter belt. Hampton Court impressive record with the FCO, heading up a team sits just inside the northern tip of the constituency. in the Hague bringing war criminals to justice and advising on the Arab-Israeli conflict and Gibraltar, Raab took up an appointment as Chief of Staff to the then Shadow , the Rt Hon David Davis MP. Adding to his array of expertise in crime, policing and immigration, Raab continued to work

“Former member of the British Karate squad. He believes that politics should be conducted in a similar spirit – robust and competitive on the substance, but respectful in person.” Jonathan Isaby, Conservative Home

CONTACT A: 3 Bridle Close, Kingston on Thames, E: [email protected] Surrey KT1 2JW W: www.dominicraab.com Blog: http://domraab.blogspot.com

18 THE NEXT GENERATION: PARLIAMENTARY CANDIDATES TO WATCH David Rutley

CANDIDATE: Conservative PPC for Macclesfield MAJORITY: 9,464 (20.6%) INCUMBENT : Sir Nicholas Winterton MP (Conservative)

BACKGROUND Portugal in the Euro 2004 soccer championship. Rutley defeated five opponents at the open primary “Let’s face it, we were robbed,” he said at the time. held at Fallibroome High School on 17th October to “Sol obviously scored. Well, it was obvious to succeed Sir Nicholas Winterton as Parliamentary everyone apart from the Swiss referee, who clearly Candidate for Macclesfield. needs his eyes tested.” Born in 1961 and educated at Lewes Priory School. In Macclesfield, Rutley’s campaign has focused on Rutley is an LSE graduate who places great revitalising Macclesfield’s town centre, in particular importance on the ‘real world experience’ he has using his experience to rejuvenating business. garnered during his career in business. He has been He has also looked to address the problem of traffic a senior executive in Asda, PepsiCo and in more congestion in the constituency and to ensuring a good recent years, Halifax General Insurance and Barclays. local health care provision at Macclesfield Hospital. Rutley is married to Rachel and is the father of four children. He is also a practising Mormon. CONSTITUENCY PROFILE The Macclesfield constituency is situated near Rutley has an impressive record working as a Special Manchester and is prime commuter territory Adviser in the last Conservative Government at the although the textile and pharmaceutical industries Treasury, and the Ministry of provide some industry in the constituency itself. Agriculture. During this time Rutley was instrumental The incumbent, Sir Nicholas Winterton became in shaping the budget and initiated the first ever embroiled in the expenses scandal last year with his White Paper for Rural England. Not surprisingly then, wife, fellow MP, Lady Ann Winterton. Nevertheless, Rutley looks set for a junior ministerial role in a there is a great deal of personal local support for future Cameron Government. Winterton as a hardworking constituency MP, having served for 38 years, and it will be interesting to see Not one to miss a PR opportunity, Rutley was how readily his support transfers to Rutley. instrumental in Asda’s campaign to offer eye tests to Macclesfield has been a Conservative seat since all Swiss nationals living in the UK – conceiving the 1918 and looks set to remain a Conservative idea after Swiss referee Urs Meier controversially stronghold in the next parliament. disallowed a potential game-winning goal by England’s Sol Campbell in England’s 2-1 defeat to

“I know that David will continue the tradition of being a hard working constituency MP who will fight for Macclesfield and the people of Macclesfield.” Sir Nicholas Winterton MP

CONTACT A: West Bank Road, Macclesfield, E: [email protected] Cheshire SK10 3BT W: www.macclesfieldconservatives.com T: 01625 422848

19 THE NEXT GENERATION: PARLIAMENTARY CANDIDATES TO WATCH Julian Smith

CANDIDATE: Conservative PPC for Skipton and Ripon MAJORITY: 11,596 (23.43%) INCUMBENT: David Curry MP (Conservative)

BACKGROUND He has also advised Shadow Ministers on Born in 1971 in Stirling, Smith was selected as the apprenticeships and education policy. Conservative Candidate for Skipton and Ripon in September 2009 after impressing locals in an open Smith has been actively involved in voluntary and primary meeting. Many commentators noted that community work, with a particular focus on youth Smith was selected after working hard to meet unemployment, homelessness and health issues. residents and local businesses in the run up to the His charitable endeavours include Training for Life, selection. He beat Fiona Bruce, Greg Hammond and a charity working to tackle enduring unemployment Fiona Kemp to win the selection. and poverty by securing apprenticeships and practical training for young people out of work. In a similar His family roots are in North and County vein Smith works with the Hoxton Apprentice, a social Durham and having grown up in a rural area this enterprise restaurant that exists to provide training gave him a natural affinity with his new constituency. opportunities for disadvantaged young people. He was educated at a local comprehensive before winning a sport and music bursary for sixth form CONSTITUENCY PROFILE at Millfield School in Somerset, where he went on to Skipton and Ripon is traditional Yorkshire Dales be Head Boy. He was a junior international squash territory; small scattered towns with a smattering player and reached Grade 8 on Violin and Piano of cathedrals and castles. The present constituency After leaving school, he coached a squash team in was formed in 1983 and has something of a Perpignan, France, before attending Birmingham liberal tradition. University where he read English and History. The incumbent, David Curry MP, is standing down at Smith is founder and managing director of Arq the next election after 23 years representing the International, a boutique London based executive Constituency. Curry was investigated by the recruitment company which undertakes senior level Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards for claims recruitment for leading financial institutions in the he made for a cottage in Yorkshire. He claimed the areas of global custody, securities services, cash and property as his second home although the Telegraph trade. From the humble beginnings of his front room investigation suggested that he had not stayed in the back in 1999, Smith has grown the organisation, property for four years. which is now a market leading firm. His business experience has impressed the Conservative leadership, resulting in him co-authoring the Arculus Report, an independent report on red tape and regulation commissioned by David Cameron and launched by Ken Clarke in 2009.

“David Curry will be a hard act to follow as our Conservative Candidate but I am confident that Julian is up to the challenge and I look forward to working with him.” Richard Hughes, Chairman of the Skipton and Ripon Conservative Association

CONTACT A: Churchill House, 19 Street, E: [email protected] Skipton, North Yorkshire BD23 1DY W: www.juliansmithppc.com

20 THE NEXT GENERATION: PARLIAMENTARY CANDIDATES TO WATCH Bob Stewart

CANDIDATE: Conservative PPC for Beckenham MAJORITY: 16,913 (40.4%) INCUMBENT: MP (Conservative)

BACKGROUND Whilst in Bosnia, Stewart became a regular media In December 2009, Stewart was selected as contributor, earning him the nickname ‘Bosnia Bob’ – parliamentary candidate for Beckenham, beating off positioning him well to take-up his post-service career stiff competition from a number of hopefuls including, in public relations. A Senior Consultant for three years, Tariq Ahmad, Lynne Hack and Jo-Anne Nadler to take Stewart went on to become Managing Director of the prestigious seat in the second ballot. Worldspace (UK) Ltd. with responsibility for establishing satellite broadcasting worldwide. Born into a military family – his mother was a Special Operations Executive Operative and his father a No stranger to the political world, Stewart’s military signaller in the RAF Bomber Command during the career has run alongside a sustained interested in the Second World War. Stewart spent his formative years world of Westminster. In fact Stewart has met and or in RAF stations throughout the UK and the Middle briefed every prime minister since Ted Heath in the East. Educated at boarding school, it was on the 1970s. In September 2009, Bob Stewart was profiled completion of his studies at the age of 17 that he alongside his friend Rory Stewart in was selected for officer training at RMA Sandhurst as one of the individuals who had responded to David and after two years was commissioned into the Cameron’s call for new candidates. With roots in Cheshire Regiment. Promoted to Lieutenant in 1971, Cheshire, Stewart was also in the running for the he took a First in International Politics from the Macclesfield and Congleton seats, as well as a finalist University of Wales and was promoted to Captain in Sleaford and North Hykeham. in 1975. CONSTITUENCY PROFILE During the troubles in he served as On Rallings and Thrasher’s notional figures, both Intelligence Officer and, after a promotion to Beckenham is now the safest Conservative seat in the Major, as Company Commander, with responsibility country, assisted by boundary changes at the election for controlling and responding to the ‘Droppin Well that are favourable to the Conservatives. It takes in Bombing’ in Ballykelly. areas including Bromley Common and Keston, and most of Hayes and Coney – traditional Conservative In his next posting in Bosnia he served as Lieutenant areas, whilst losing more suburban parts like Penge Colonel (1987) and became Military Assistant to the and Caytor. The seat has always returned a highest ranking officer in NATO. Following a further Conservative MP. The incumbent Jacqui Lait is two more operational tours of Northern Ireland, standing down at the next election having Stewart became the first British Commander of United represented the seat since the by-election in 1997 Nations Forces in Bosnia. Decorated once again for forced by the departure of MP. his service, he received the Distinguished Service Order in 1993, followed by a promotion to Colonel and finally an appointment to Chief of Policy at the Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers of Europe.

“With his distinguished military background and proven leadership skills, Bob is just the sort of person we need in Parliament.” Commander John Muxworthy RN, Chief Executive Officer of the UKNDA

CONTACT A: 31 Beckenham Road, Beckenham, E: [email protected] Kent BR3 4PR W: www.beckenhamconservatives.com

21 THE NEXT GENERATION: PARLIAMENTARY CANDIDATES TO WATCH Rory Stewart OBE

CANDIDATE: Conservative PPC for Penrith and The Border MAJORITY: 10,797 (25.58%) INCUMBENT: MP (Conservative)

BACKGROUND Stewart has called for a greater emphasis on Described as a modern day Lawrence of Arabia, listening to people’s concerns and wishes in Stewart was born in Hong Kong and spent his Government policy at home and abroad through his childhood living between Asia and the Scottish two bestselling books, his BBC TV documentaries Highlands. Following in his father’s footsteps, and his teaching as a professor of public policy at Stewart served briefly in the Black Watch and then . He was awarded an OBE in joined the Diplomatic service, serving in a number of 2004 for his service in Iraq. places including Iraq as Deputy Governor of Maysan province. Stewart’s transition to British politics is a After the long-serving Conservative MP David continuation of a varied and interesting career that Maclean announced his retirement for health reflects his strong commitment to public service. reasons, Stewart was selected as the Conservative Candidate for Penrith and the Border in 2009 He currently lives in a farm cottage at Appleby, in his through an open primary. At his selection in October prospective constituency of Penrith and the Border. at the Penrith Auction Mart, Stewart said “Thank you He has spent the last two months walking over for changing my life. I’m unbelievably happy. This 280 miles to visit every village in the constituency, has been a life changing experience”. staying in a different Cumbrian home every night. CONSTITUENCY PROFILE This type of adventure is nothing new to Stewart, Penrith and The Border is the largest constituency in however. Between 2000 and 2002 Stewart’s love England in terms of acreage. With an electorate of of walking and interest in realities of life in the around 67,000, it is also one of the most sparsely countries where he had worked as a diplomat led populated. Completely encircling the seat of him to walk 6000 miles alone across Asia and and stretching from just short of Gretna Green in the stayed in more than five hundred village homes. north to the Yorkshire Dales in the south. The This experience inspired him to set up the Turquoise constituency itself has been a Conservative strong Mountain Foundation, which has raised £15 million hold for more than 50 years and thanks to favourable pounds and restored the centre of the old city of boundary changes, look set to see a Conservative Kabul, bringing in essential services, training majority of more than 10,000. craftspeople, creating a primary school and a healthcare clinic and supporting small businesses.

“Everything I know about Rory suggests he would not just respect, but love, his constituency and his constituency work.” Matthew Parris, Times Columnist

CONTACT A: 31 Chiswick Street, Carlisle, E: [email protected] CA1 1HJ W: www.rorystewart.co.uk T: 01228 521573

22 THE NEXT GENERATION: PARLIAMENTARY CANDIDATES TO WATCH Skipping a generation: Labour’s PPCs Andrew Hobson Associate Director, Insight Public Affairs

With 91 Labour MPs so far announcing their retirement at the forthcoming election, regional officials and CLP officers have been kept busy with selection contests. The recent round has thrown up a number of interesting, exciting, and at time surprising results. Perhaps the most striking feature of the selections is the number of under-30s being chosen to represent the Party in its most winnable seats. With so many young, talented and ambitious candidates being selected, it is hard to escape the impression that the party is looking to skip a generation as it seeks to refresh itself after thirteen years in power. Youth, it seems, is being seen as proxy for change, a clear signal to voters that the candidate is part of a ‘new breed’ – untainted by the failings of predecessors. But these bright young things are far from political novices. As the profiles featured in this guide indicate, they already have an impressive array of political experience to call upon and it is clear that all have displayed the qualities required to make a significant impact on the future of British politics. Reviewing their respective CVs, these candidates certainly have drive, ambition and talent to spare. The youngest, Bridget Phillipson in Houghton and South has been involved with her local party for many years, and has impressed many with her mature and professional approach to her candidacy. She will be 26 years old on Election Day, and a good bet to ‘Baby of the House’ in the next Parliament. Anas Sarwar, 28, has been a prominent local figure since his teenage years and can call on experience gained as an NHS Dentist in . He has won ’s “Best New Scottish Politician” award in 2009 and is set to be fast-tracked to the Labour front benches. Emilie Oldknow, 29, and John Woodcock, 31, both have years of experience working for the Labour Party under their belts, and played key roles for the party in the 2005 election. Indeed, Woodcock has spent the last five years at the centre of Government as a Special Adviser to John Hutton, before making the switch to become one of ’s advisors at Number 10. Lisa Nandy, the hugely ambitious 30 year old Senior Policy advisor at the Children’s Society and Shabana Mahmood, the 29 year old Barrister hoping to win ’s Birmingham Ladywood seat, are also sure to have a significant impact on the future direction of the Labour Party. There are a number of candidates with experience to step straight into front bench duties. Kate Green, 49, has years of experience running charities and advising ministers and Chi Onuwarah the 44 year old senior engineer looking to win Newcastle Central has a wealth of experience as one of the UK’s leading telecoms experts. All of these individuals have time on their side, and while it may take a couple of years before they begin to make themselves known on the national stage, these are future leaders of the Party who will be needed to take the fight to the Conservatives in years to come. If the polls are to be believed, then the Labour Party will have a reduced Parliamentary presence after the next elections. The good news for the party is that it is already sowing the seeds for its future regeneration.

23 THE NEXT GENERATION: PARLIAMENTARY CANDIDATES TO WATCH Kate Green OBE

CANDIDATE: Labour PPC for Stretford and Urmston MAJORITY: 8,181 (21%) INCUMBENT: Rt Hon MP (Labour)

BACKGROUND She has been Chair of the London Child Poverty Green stepped down as Chief Executive of Child Commission which reports to the Mayor of London Poverty Action Group in January 2010 to contest the and London Councils on strategies for reducing the Stretford and Urmston Parliamentary seat for Labour exceptionally high levels of child poverty in the capital; at the next election. She is well known to Beverley a trustee of Friends Provident Foundation, End Child Hughes, the current MP for the outer Manchester Poverty, and the Institute for Fiscal Studies; and a constituency, who worked closely with Green when member of the advisory board of the Resolution she was Minister in the Department for Children, Foundation which is concerned with access to Schools and Families. financial services. Green was a Magistrate in London for 16 years and received an OBE in the 2005 Originally from , Green will be one of the most New Year’s Honours list. experienced of the new faces likely to enter Parliament this year. Many commentators have pointed to her She has earned the respect of many Cabinet Ministers leadership strengths, as someone who has spent many already, and with her pragmatic, mainstream years running third sector organisations. approach Green can expect a fast route from the backbenches to the front bench, bringing valuable, Her position as Chief Executive of Child Poverty Action considered experience and perspective to future Group from July 2004 often meant her publicly legislation on child poverty and social justice. criticising the Government as one of the leading campaigners for the abolition of child poverty. However, CONSTITUENCY PROFILE she gained the respect of Gordon Brown and other Beverley Hughes’ majority was reduced at the 2005 senior Ministers for her unswerving commitment to general election but she still polled over 50 per cent of equality and social justice. From July 2000, she was the vote and with a majority over 8,000 this should be a Director of the National Council for One Parent Families, safe Labour seat. The constituency is relatively new in its and previously she worked for the and present form, contested for the first time in 1997, but before that for Barclays Bank. Given her expertise, Green based on boundaries from the 1960s when the is likely to seek a place on the Children, Schools and constituency was safe Conservative territory. It was Families Select Committee or Work and Pensions Select created from the former constituencies of Stretford and Committee following the election. Davyhulme. The former being more inclined to the Labour Party, and the latter by the Conservatives. This will be the second time that the 49-year-old divorcee has contested a General Election, having Stretford and Urmston still has a large industrial finished in second place to Peter Brooke in the Cities of areas, a mix of affluent areas to the south, and London and Westminster constituency in Labour’s disadvantaged areas like Carrington to the North. landslide in 1997. The constituency includes the Old Trafford cricket and football grounds.

“She has shown a whole lifetime of working to challenge inequality and for improving the position of the poorest in our society, particularly children. She is outstandingly committed to families and in day-to-day touch with the challenges ordinary people face.” Rt Hon Beverley Hughes MP

CONTACT A: The Morris Hall, 9 Atkinson Road, E: [email protected] Urmston, Manchester M41 9AD W: www.kategreen.org T: 0161 748 8580

24 THE NEXT GENERATION: PARLIAMENTARY CANDIDATES TO WATCH

CANDIDATE: Labour PPC for South MAJORITY: 6,665 (19.2%) INCUMBENT: Alan Simpson MP (Labour)

BACKGROUND public sector pensions and an increase in health Trade Unionist, Greenwood, on the ‘’ of the service funding. She opposed the because party, won a shock victory over left wing National of the lack of a UN mandate and says she would Executive Committee Member, Christina Shawcroft argue strongly in the party against the replacement by 23 votes for the right to replace, Alan Simpson of Trident. She has also been critical of the use of MP. Local Councillor, and one time front-runner for Private Finance Initiatives citing concerns that it the seat, Katrina Bull finished third. represents a fundamental shift in who owns valuable public assets. Greenwood, a member of the Compass group, started her career in labour market research for the Born and brought up in Bolton, Greenwood has Local Government Employers organisation before retained her accent despite having lived becoming a research officer for the Civil and Public in and around Nottingham for many years. She Service Association and subsequently a branch studied Economics and Social and Political Sciences officer for the GMB. Since 1992, she has worked at St Catharine’s College, Cambridge and also has in Nottingham for the public sector , an MSc in Sociology and Social Policy. She recently UNISON, where she is currently Regional Head of married her partner Ravi, and she has three Campaigns and Policy. daughters who were all born at the City Hospital and attend local schools. Greenwood is set to become a loyal, but questioning, addition to the Parliamentary Labour CONSTITUENCY PROFILE Party. She has said she would be prepared to vote The seat ranges from the council estates of Clifton, against the party whip if she felt it absolutely to the student population of Lenton and the diverse necessary and was confident that she had the and well-off city centre. Labour has held Nottingham support of her local party and constituents. She citied South since 1992 and the core working class vote the introduction of differential university top-up fees in the area should see the seat remain secure. That of one issue on which she would have rebelled. said, this is the closest that the Conservatives will get to winning a seat in this Labour stronghold of However, she will not be making a habit of rebelling a city, and new boundary changes are likely to work and has said, “in order to influence policy and against Labour with part of the traditionally loyal decision-making it is necessary to build credibility in Basford ward going to Nottingham North. Parts of the party. I don’t feel that I would be able to get the St Ann’s and Arboretum ward will now also move best deal for the people of Nottingham South as a to Nottingham East. serial rebel.” She is an experienced advocate and organiser who has campaigned at a local and national level, on women’s rights and anti-racism as well as improved

“The next election will be a big choice. Labour offers positive change for the majority. The Tories’ proposals will benefit the privileged few.” Lillian Greenwood

CONTACT A: Unit 13a, John Folman Business Centre, E: [email protected] Hungerhill Road, Nottingham NG3 4NB W: liliangreenwood.blogspot.com T: 0115 924 5406

25 THE NEXT GENERATION: PARLIAMENTARY CANDIDATES TO WATCH Liz Kendall

CANDIDATE: Labour PPC for West MAJORITY: 8,539 (26.42%) INCUMBENT: Rt Hon Patricia Hewitt MP (Labour)

BACKGROUND She joined Hewitt as Special Adviser at the One of a clutch of one-time Special Advisers to win Department of Trade and Industry and stayed with selection for their former bosses’ seats, Kendall her when she was reshuffled in 2005 to the secured her selection after Patricia Hewitt announced Department of Health. her intention to stand down after 13 years in Parliament. Kendall’s Parliamentary ambitions go as far back as 2000, when she was one of the favourites to win Originally from Watford where her father was a local the Chesterfield seat made available by ’s councillor, Cambridge history graduate Kendall was retirement. She came second, which was just as well part of the original batch of bright young things as the seat was clinched by the Lib Dems at the appointed as political advisors following Labour’s subsequent election. She has bided her time, victory in 1997. She joined the party at the age of however, and is expected to be a key figure for the 20 when she “woke up the morning after the 92 Labour Party in the next Parliament. election feeling incredibly angry and frustrated that the Tories had won again”. She was just 26 when Following her selection the 38-year-old left her role as she began working with Labour ‘fixer’ John Director of the Ambulance Services Network, part of McTernan in the team supporting the NHS Confederation, which was set up to provide during her stint as Secretary of State for Social an independent voice for UK ambulance services. Security between 1997 and 1998. CONSTITUENCY PROFILE After Harman’s sacking in 1998, Kendall left This is the least ethnically mixed of the three Government to build a reputation as an important Leicester seats with 19% of residents from ethnic influencer on Labour’s health policy. She spent time minorities. The seat has been Labour since the at health think tank, the King’s Fund, before 1920s with the constituency represented by Greville becoming lead researcher on health and social care (now Lord) Janner for 25 years, and before that by at the Institute for Public Policy Research where she his father Barnett. Boundary changes see the seat became known as a strong advocate of the lose Latimer ward a polling district from Leicester patient-centred care agenda. She left the IPPR to East, something that is likely to reduce the Labour become Director of the Maternity Alliance, the vote although not dramatically. Barring a dramatic national charity for pregnant women, new parents national collapse, the seat is likely to remain solid and babies under one. Labour territory at the next General Election. It was always clear that Kendall sought a return to the cut and thrust of front line politics, and it was not long before Kendall returned to Government.

“The members in Leicester West had some excellent candidates to choose from and I am delighted that they have chosen Liz to represent them and build on the work that Patricia has done over the last 13 years.” Neil Clayton, Chair, Leicester West CLP

CONTACT A: Ground Front Floor, 5 Frog Island, E: [email protected] Leicester LE3 5AS W: www.lizkendall.org T: 0116 253 7374

26 THE NEXT GENERATION: PARLIAMENTARY CANDIDATES TO WATCH Shabana Mahmood

CANDIDATE: Labour PPC for Birmingham Ladywood MAJORITY: 6,804 (23.23%) INCUMBENT: Clare Short MP (Independent)

BACKGROUND CONSTITUENCY PROFILE The woman hoping to succeed Clare Short has had Birmingham Ladywood represents a challenging to work hard to break out from the shadow of her constituency as this inner city patch has substantial famous predecessor. Mahmood has barely started areas of deprivation and poverty. This is one of her political career and already she has come Birmingham’s two seats where ethnic minorities through a difficult selection contest with, as the make up the majority of the population and 29-year-old daughter of a local Labour Party officer, unemployment is exceptionally high. In recent years, allegations of nepotism as well as criticism from the constituency has had a number of problems those opposed to the women only shortlist. with gun crime, anti social behaviour and drug abuse but more generally it faces a distinct housing Mahmood polled 118 votes to Yvonne Mosquito’s shortage and regeneration will remain a top priority 99 votes, despite Mosquito’s twelve years as Labour for the area. Councillor for Nechells. The other two hopefuls were Penny Barber and Sandra Samuels. This seat will remain in Labour hands and Mahmood looks set to do well here. A dynamic young MP is The Oxford educated former Berrymans Lace Mawer just what this seat needs! employed barrister, is one of the estimated 10 per cent of the likely new intake with a background in law. Born and raised in Small Heath she went to school in the Ladywood constituency, and is keen to demonstrate that she will be an independent and passionate voice for the area. From the outset she has set out her stall as a fervent opponent of the Iraq War and the 42 day detention of terror suspects. She says “I am a Labour Party member and share 99.9 per cent of the party’s aims and policies. But there are issues such as the Iraq War and 42 days over which I disagree with the party line.” Mahmood, is a twin and one of four children born to Pakistani immigrants. She studied law at Lincoln College, Oxford, where she was elected president of the JCR. Her father Mahmood Ahmed, a civil engineer, is the chairman of the Birmingham Labour Party.

“It is clear the barrister is anything but a party automaton and from the outset has set out her stall as a passionate opponent of the Iraq War and the 42 day detention of terror suspects.” Neil Elkes, Birmingham News

CONTACT A: 31 Statham Drive, E: [email protected] Birmingham B16 0TF W: www.shabanamahmood.co.uk T: 07772 129543

27 THE NEXT GENERATION: PARLIAMENTARY CANDIDATES TO WATCH Lisa Nandy

CANDIDATE: Labour PPC for Wigan MAJORITY: 15,501 (39.15%) INCUMBENT: Neil Turner MP (Labour)

BACKGROUND Her politics are firmly based on her belief in the Well liked and well connected, independent minded importance of communities and an interest in finding northerner Lisa Nandy has won admiration from ways of improving services available to local people. across the political spectrum for her willingness to She is a school governor, a director of her local theatre stand up for the causes she is passionate about, even and trustee of a charity that provides free legal advice if it sometimes sets her against her own party to people who cannot afford to pay lawyers fees. leadership. With a reputation as a tireless campaigner in her role as senior policy advisor at the Children’s Nandy is a frequent, and forceful, witness at Society, she made a name for herself holding Parliamentary Select Committee inquiries and advises Ministers to account over a range of issues affecting Government on strategy, including child poverty and children particularly those who have grown up in employment conditions. She is a regular media poverty or have been abused or ill treated. performer and a spokesperson for the Children’s Society, appearing on programmes such as She won an impressive victory in the Wigan News and Radio 4’s the Today Programme. selection, her first attempt to become a parliamentary candidate, beating former Labour With her confidence in front of the media, expertise Minister, , and Hackney Councillor, on a range of policy issues and a stubborn approach Nargis Khan. She had emerged as favourite after a to winning people around to her way of thinking, "head and shoulders best" performance at an earlier Nandy will quickly become established as a familiar selection meeting, according to Labour sources. and popular face on the Labour benches.

Nandy grew up in Manchester in the 1980s, and CONSTITUENCY PROFILE later in Bury where her family still live. She studied at The constituency does not just include the town of Newcastle University before working as a housing Wigan itself rather it is made up of villages such as case worker for left wing MP, Neil Crooke, Standish and Haigh and is largely rural. Whilst Gerrard. Her knowledge and tenacity as an expert campaigner on housing issues led to a two year stint Wigan does not represent the ‘chattering classes of at homelessness charity Centrepoint. metropolitan ’ neither does it share the same cosmopolitan atmosphere as other areas of Very much on the ‘soft left’ of the party, Nandy’s Greater Manchester as, for example, ethnic minorities pragmatic approach to politics has been influenced by only account for a small percent of the population. her experiences working in the community she serves as Councillor on Conservative run Hammersmith and The key issues in this seat are a lack of primary and Fulham Council. As the Labour Shadow Cabinet secondary school education and as coalmining was Member for Housing and Regeneration, she has used formerly a local industry, the health legacies still remain. her campaigning skills to good effect fighting hard This is one the safest seats for Labour and with Nandy’s against plans to demolish council homes in her ward. strong credentials, she will certainly be one to watch.

“Lisa has played a pivotal role in the children’s charity sector. She combines passion and a determination to succeed with awareness of the way Whitehall and Westminster functions and she gets things done. ” Martin Narey, Chief Executive, Barnardo’s

CONTACT E: [email protected]

28 THE NEXT GENERATION: PARLIAMENTARY CANDIDATES TO WATCH Emilie Oldknow

CANDIDATE: Labour PPC for Sherwood MAJORITY: 6,869 (15.9%) INCUMBENT: Paddy Tipping MP (Labour)

BACKGROUND She is active in community life and likes to keep fit, Oldknow, Labour’s Regional Director for the East regularly playing netball once a week in the Midlands, was selected as the candidate to fight the constituency. Her supporters say she is a likeable seat made available after Paddy Tipping’s decision to personality with her feet on the ground. stand down. Issues associated with coal mining feature heavily in Local, young (29 years old), and with a deserved parts of Sherwood indeed there is still a working reputation as an effective campaigner, much was colliery at Thoresby in the constituency. Supporting made of her connections through boyfriend Jonathan clean coal, fighting for retired miners and coalfield Ashworth, Gordon Brown’s Deputy Political regeneration featured in Oldknow’s selection Secretary, who opponents claimed had helped campaign and are all issues she has promised take parachute Oldknow into the Sherwood seat. up if elected to Parliament. Certainly, the selection and decision to run an all Oldknow went to university in Newcastle returning women shortlist in the constituency created some to the area to work for the NHS in Rainworth before controversy but Oldknow’s local credentials – she taking up a job with the Labour was born, brought up and educated in the Party. In 2005 she masterminded Vernon Coaker’s Sherwood constituency – helped see her through a re-election in nearby Gedling, she will be hoping to bitter selection process which she won by 130 votes repeat the same campaigning success in Sherwood. to 21. However, Oldknow’s supporters said the allegation was unfair. As one member said “Emilie CONSTITUENCY PROFILE worked her socks off to win the selection – she won The constituency is a former mining area, devastated because she convinced members she was the best by the pit closures of the 1980s. However, the seat candidate, that’s why members overwhelmingly surprisingly went Conservative when it was first backed her in a democratic vote, it’s as simple contested in 1983. These days it is a fairly safe as that.” Labour area, with Paddy Tipping winning a solid 6,652 majority at the last election. Boundary As a member of the GMB, she received the support changes could make the seat slightly more of all the trade unions in the Sherwood Labour Party. vulnerable with the loss of part of the Calverton She is also a member of the Co-operative Party. ward, which traditionally leans heavily to Labour, however strong government investment in the area’s Both Oldknow’s parents were teachers who taught economy, and Paddy Tipping’s record as a popular in Sherwood schools and education has always been constituency MP should ensure the constituency one of her passions. She is a school governor and remains a relatively safe prospect for the party. has lived in the constituency the majority of her life.

“Emilie is a formidable campaigner, born and bred in the Sherwood area. She’s got her feet on the ground. She is a fighter for social justice and fairness – I know she will have at impact at Westminster and will be a superb MP.” Rt Hon Ed Miliband MP

CONTACT A: 39 Swinton Rise, Ravenshead, E: [email protected] Nottingham NG15 9FS W: www.emilie4sherwood.com T: 07784 485 880

29 THE NEXT GENERATION: PARLIAMENTARY CANDIDATES TO WATCH Chi Onwurah

CANDIDATE: Labour PPC for Newcastle Central MAJORITY: 7,509 (23.07%) INCUMBENT: MP (Labour)

BACKGROUND Seen as measured and thoughtful in her approach, Labour party members in the Newcastle Central Onwurah’s wide ranging background in business constituency selected Onwurah, a Senior Engineer and engineering means that she is set to bring and telecoms expert as successor to long-serving valuable practical experience to the Labour benches, Labour MP Jim Cousins who announced his intention and a global perspective to economic issues. to retire after 22 years in Parliament. She has been a member of the Labour Party since Onwurah, aged 44, was born in Wallsend, just 1981, and in a closely contested selection process outside Newcastle upon Tyne, and attended Kenton beat off a strong local field to win with a 65:55 vote Comprehensive School in the constituency, where in the third round. she was elected as ‘MP’ in the school’s mock elections. She is currently Head of International CONSTITUENCY PROFILE Technology Strategy at where she focuses Boundary changes mean the constituency has on the economic costs and benefits of super-fast acquired predominantly Labour wards from what broadband. was Tyne Bridge and lost predominantly Lib Dem wards to Newcastle East and Newcastle North, Prior to Ofcom, she was a Partner at Hammatan making it the ‘safest’ seat in Newcastle on paper. Ventures, a US technology consultancy, developing Some wards remain Liberal Democrat strongholds emerging markets in Nigeria and South Africa. and their position was further strengthened in the Previously she was Director of Market Development 2008 local elections. There has also been significant with Teligent in the US and before that Director BNP activity in three wards. Geographically, the seat of Product Strategy at Global Telesystems in the covers Newcastle city centre Newcastle University, UK. She has also worked for telecoms firms Cable the Town Moor, St James Park, home to Newcastle & Wireless and Nortel in the UK and France. United, and surrounding residential areas. Onwurah is a Chartered Engineer with a BEng in Electrical Engineering from Imperial College and an MBA from Manchester Business School. She carried out groundbreaking work bringing wireless communication into Africa and was for many years on the National Executive of Anti Apartheid and ACTSA (Action for Southern Africa). She is currently on the Board of the Open University Business School.

“Chi Onwurah is an engineer in the great Northern tradition. Her business and technology experience will benefit the region and the party.” Rt Hon MP

CONTACT A: Chi Onwurah, FREEPOST, E: [email protected] Newcastle Labour W: www.chi4central.com T: 07551 577 672 : www.twitter.com/ChiOnwurah

30 THE NEXT GENERATION: PARLIAMENTARY CANDIDATES TO WATCH Bridget Phillipson

CANDIDATE: Labour PPC for Houghton and Sunderland South MAJORITY: 16,986 (45.78%) INCUMBENT: Fraser Kemp MP (Labour)

BACKGROUND Phillipson was chair of the Labour Club at Oxford If elected as MP for Houghton and Sunderland University, where she studied history. Graduating in South, 26 year old Phillipson is a strong contender to 2005 she moved back to the North East to work for become Baby of the House in the new Parliament, Sunderland City Council. Phillipson has also representing a brand new constituency, an represented the region on the Labour Party’s National amalgamation of Sunderland South and Houghton Policy Forum. In 2009 she married Lawrence Dimery, and Washington East. who works in the financial services industry.

Phillipson, from Washington, Tyne and Wear, beat CONSTITUENCY PROFILE off a stiff challenge from former Minister Barbara Both the seats which created the new constituency, Roche in this very closely contested selection. This Chris Mullin’s Sunderland South and Fraser Kemp’s was her second attempt to win a Labour nomination Houghton and Washington East, were Labour in the North East having previously narrowly failed to strongholds and Houghton and Sunderland South is beat to the Washington and firm Labour territory. The area, formerly famed for its Sunderland West seat. heavy industry, has undergone dramatic social and economic changes in the recent past and is now A local party stalwart, and daughter of local party reliant on the service industry for much of its doyen, Clare Phillipson, one party member reminded employment. those at the selection meeting that Phillipson used to play under the table at CLP meetings. Over the years she has succeeded in building up a very strong base of support locally. Currently managing a women’s refuge for local charity Wearside Women in Need, she has been described as bright, down to earth and extremely hard-working. She won plaudits for her fresh thinking, and pragmatic approach to politics, impressing local activist and party figures by setting out ideas on issues including council housing, local transport, changing the welfare system and support for ex-servicemen.

“I’m sure that she will make an excellent candidate and, when elected, she will be a very hard-working Member of Parliament.” Fraser Kemp MP

CONTACT A: West View, North Road, E: [email protected] Hetton le Hole DH5 9JU W: www.bridgetphillipson.co.uk

31 THE NEXT GENERATION: PARLIAMENTARY CANDIDATES TO WATCH Anas Sarwar

CANDIDATE: Labour PPC for Glasgow Central MAJORITY: 8,531 (30.4%) INCUMBENT: Mohammed Sarwar MP (Labour)

BACKGROUND He insists that he is his own man, not encumbered One of the highest profile of Labour’s next generation, by his father’s legacy or by community politics. Sarwar is son of Mohammad Sarwar, the UK’s first He positions himself as a moderniser, on the moderate Muslim Member of Parliament. Carrying one of the left of the party. He supports private finance in building most well known political names in Scottish politics new schools and hospitals, and is generally positive into the election has mixed blessings. His father has about the state of NHS dentistry under Labour. had a roller-coaster political career marred by internal feuding and his suspension from the party over Following the 7/7 attacks in London, Sarwar set up vote-rigging allegations. Sarwar senior was cleared in the Scottish Muslim Network, a voluntary court and returned to the party, most recently chairing organisation aimed at engaging with young Muslims the Scottish Affairs Select Committee. and encouraging them to participate in community affairs. He is also the founder and co-ordinator of Dealing with the fallout of his father’s troubles, Y-Vote, a political platform for young people which Sarwar junior says, has equipped him with a uses a mix of music and political education to engage protective armour capable of deflecting any crisis young people into the political process. He won The that politics might send his way. Charming, slick and Sun’s “Best New Scottish Politician” award in 2009. self-assured (he once joked “people say politics is show business for the ugly, but I reckon I prove that CONSTITUENCY PROFILE theory wrong”). The father of one is an NHS dentist The 2005 boundary review pruned the 10 who Labour insiders believe will be a star of the next Glaswegian seats to seven. The new constituency generation. Commentators already talk of ministerial contains wards from five of the previous Glasgow posts in a future Labour Government. He was placed seats, the bulk formed by combing the central wards top of Labour’s list for Glasgow in the Scottish of the old Govan, Kelvin and Shettleston seats. The Parliament elections and introduced Gordon Brown economic renewal of Glasgow has resulted in rapidly at the Conference in 2008. rising property prices and some gentrification in the constituency, especially in the areas closest to the city At 28, the youngest of four brothers and sisters, he centre and Glasgow Green. However, much of the will contest his father's seat of Glasgow Central for seat remains severely deprived. North of the Clyde Labour at the next general election. it is nominally the Calton area suffers severe deprivation with major safe Labour. His father has an 8,500-vote majority, problems of unemployment, crime, drug abuse and and he won 70% support from constituency prostitution. Life expectancy here is in the low 50s. members at the selection. The constituency is ethnically diverse, with the Sarwar was privately educated at Hutcheson Pakistani community making up the constituency’s Grammar school but has been involved with the largest minority group. In fact the seat has the Labour party since childhood and has an impressive largest Pakistani community of any Scottish seat. experience of politics and campaigning already.

“Scotland and the Labour party need more young men like him.” The Daily Record

CONTACT A: Transport House, 290 Bath Street, E: [email protected] Glasgow G2 4LD W: www.sarwar4glasgow.com T: 07527 291 898

32 THE NEXT GENERATION: PARLIAMENTARY CANDIDATES TO WATCH John Woodcock

CANDIDATE: Labour PPC for Barrow and Furness NOTIONAL MAJORITY: 4,836 (12.5%) INCUMBENT: Rt Hon John Hutton MP (Labour)

BACKGROUND broaden its press operation in autumn 2008. Former political spokesman to Prime Minister He subsequently moved to a backroom, strategic role Gordon Brown, John Woodcock got to know Barrow before leaving Number Ten and moving to Barrow while working for as Special Adviser to Rt Hon John with his young family to concentrate on campaigning Hutton MP, whose decision to stand down took full time to win the seat. many by surprise. Woodcock is o ne of a number of young Labour Married to former NUS President, , candidates being jointly sponsored by the Woodcock is a 31-year-old father of one and is well Co-operative Party, whose commitment to increasing respected for his keen intellect, drive and personable mutualism as an alternative to private sector and modest style. He started out his professional provision is rising up the Labour modernisers’ career as a journalist, but says “I decided I could agenda in response to the global financial collapse. make more of a difference by fighting for something I really believed in which is why I went to work for CONSTITUENCY PROFILE the Labour party and helped in the re-election of a Barrow itself is best know as a shipbuilding centre, Labour government”. relying heavily on submarine building, which makes the future of the Trident programme a significant After serving in head office during the 2005 election local issue. However the seat also takes in a large campaign, the -born former Labour Student rural population and the small town of activist was appointed Special Adviser to John Ulverston. Boundary changes in the constituency are Hutton. During this time, Hutton served as Chancellor fairly minor; however two new Conservative held of the Duchy of Lancaster, Minister for the Cabinet wards, Broughton and Crake Valley, have been Office (2005), Secretary of State for Work & Pensions moved into the constituency, which may help to tip (2005-2007) and Secretary of State for Business, the balance in favour of the Conservatives. Enterprise & Regulatory Reform (2007-2008). Rated by senior Blairites from his days as a policy and media adviser to arch-moderniser Mr Hutton, Woodcock became a loyal part of Gordon Brown’s Downing Street team after being recruited to

“I’ve known John for a long time and he will be an asset to a Labour government, one of our new stars. John can climb high as long as he keeps his feet on the ground in Barrow and Furness.” Rt Hon Lord Mandelson

CONTACT A: 22 Hartington St, Barrow-in-Furness, E: [email protected] Cumbria LA14 5SL W: johnwoodcock.org T: 01229 820 025 Twitter: www.twitter.com/JohnWoodcockLab

33 THE NEXT GENERATION: PARLIAMENTARY CANDIDATES TO WATCH And finally...

Olly Kendall Account Director, Insight Public Affairs

Insight has now profiled over 60 candidates who are likely to become MPs after the election. But what about those parliamentary candidates who are not shoo-ins: the long-shots who might just squeeze in under the right circumstances? Or those who are likely to impact British politics, whether or not they win in May? Or those who – quite simply – we just haven’t got around to covering? Well here are a few more candidates who we think it’s worth keeping an eye on.

FRED MACKINTOSH – HIS TO LOSE First up, the Lib Dem Candidate in South. Following the announcement by Labour’s to stand down in early February 2010, the Lib Dems have a great shot at taking this seat from Labour. Expense and personal scandal had already engulfed Griffiths – and now with his departure it gives his Labour successor just a few weeks to establish themselves before an election. No mean feat. With three years under his belt working the seat, the barrister and highly-regarded campaigner should win – and could expect to play a role in ’s shadow cabinet in the next parliament. STEPHEN PARKINSON – ONE FOR THE FUTURE The Conservatives established the ‘City Seat Initiative’ – a scheme that has seen a cluster of hopefuls working several seats in a particular urban area. Candidates were recently assigned a particular seat to fight. One such candidate was Stephen Parkinson – the PPC in Newcastle Upon Tyne North. A high-flyer from a comprehensive background who went on to study at Cambridge, who published his first book at the age of just 26 and has already been Director of Research at the Centre for Policy Studies, Parkinson is sure to make his impact on politics over the next decade. Starting in a distant third in this seat, defeat is all but assured, but having previously spent two years briefing Michael Howard and David Cameron at CCO, a job offer from a new Conservative Government beckons – and in all likelihood, selection for a more winnable parliamentary seat at the next election but one. RICHARD BURT – A HUSBAND AND WIFE TEAM? Not many Lib Dem PPCs will overturn a 3,500 plus Conservative majority at the next election. But Richard Burt, husband of Lib Dem MP , has a chance. Standing in Worcestershire West where incumbent MP Michael Spicer faced heavy criticism over dubious expense claims, Burt now takes on Spicer’s successor – Conservative PPC Harriet Baldwin. The combination of the expenses scandal, the absence of any ‘personal vote’ for an incumbent and a new Conservative candidate whose profession is, gasp, investment banking has to make overturning the 3,500 majority a possibility. His wife was an unexpected winner in 2005, will it be the husband’s turn this time?

34 THE NEXT GENERATION: PARLIAMENTARY CANDIDATES TO WATCH Sal Brinton

CANDIDATE: Liberal Democrat PPC for Watford MAJORITY: 1,151 (2.33% swing) SWING REQUIRED: 1.17% INCUMBENT: MP (Labour)

BACKGROUND Brinton has also worked as a venture capitalist, Educated at Benenden and Cambridge University, investing in high-tech companies, and in the the company director and Bursar of Selwyn College construction industry – a million miles from where Cambridge is the favourite to overturn Labour’s she began her career – at the BBC in the 1970s as a 1, 100 majority in Watford. floor manager working on programmes including as Doctor Who, Grandstand and Playschool. Brinton lives in Watford, and stood in 2005 when she increased the Liberal Democrat vote by 7,339 CONSTITUENCY PROFILE votes (a 13.8% swing) pushing the Conservatives The Watford Parliamentary Constituency covers all into third place. She contested Cambridgeshire South of the Watford Borough Council area and a part of East in 1997 and 2001, and was a Cambridgeshire Three Rivers District Council. The Liberal Democrats County Councillor between 1993 and 2004. currently control both Watford Borough Council and Three Rivers District Council with substantial If elected she will brings a wide and varied range majorities. of expertise to the backbenches. Currently Director of the Association of the Universities in the East of In 2002, Dorothy Thornhill was elected as the first England, she is a former recipient of the East Anglian directly elected Mayor of Watford, and re-elected Entrepreneurial Businesswoman of the Year and a in 2006 with over 50% of the vote. At the 2005 Trustee of Christian Blind Mission which is the largest General Election, Brinton came within 1,1 00 of non-governmental disability charity working in the unseating the Claire Ward and becoming MP for developing world. Watford. With the Liberal Democrats having more Councillors than Labour and the Conservatives Brinton has served as Vice-Chair on the Liberal combined across the area, Brinton will be the clear Democrat Federal Policy Committee and was also challenger to Labour in Watford this May. a member of the Federal Conference Committee. Her policy interests lie in the education sphere – she was a member of the Party's national working group. She has also served on the Board of the East of England Development Agency from 1998 to 2004, serving as Deputy Chair from 2001 to 2004. In 2003, she was awarded an honorary PhD for her contribution to education, skills and learning by Anglia Polytechnic University. She is currently a director of the University for Industry (LearnDirect).

“Sal Brinton is an outstanding local candidate and exactly what Watford needs for a MP. She is a woman of principle who makes things happen.” Chris Huhne MP

CONTACT A: 128 Langley Road, Watford WD17 4RR E: [email protected] T: 07768 821 187 W: www.watfordlibdems.org.uk

35 THE NEXT GENERATION: PARLIAMENTARY CANDIDATES TO WATCH Bridget Fox

CANDIDATE: Liberal Democrat PPC for Islington South and Finsbury MAJORITY: 484 (1.56%) SWING REQUIRED: 0.78% INCUMBENT: MP (Labour)

BACKGROUND An award-winning environmental campaigner and Liberal Democrats are hoping it will be second time resident of the area for almost 20 years, she is active lucky in Islington South and Finsbury for Fox, where in local groups, including the St Luke’s Timebank, she is hoping to overturn the slim 484 majority in NO2ID, and the North London Fawcett Group, the party’s top target seat in London. and has a pedigree in public service in Islington including performing roles as a school governor and Fox has been working the constituency for three charity trustee. years in her official capacity as Liberal Democrat Parliamentary Spokesperson, but has an established CONSTITUENCY PROFILE high-profile in the area as a local councillor until Islington was an early stronghold for the Social 2006, and as parliamentary candidate in 2005. Local Democratic Party when all three sitting Labour MPs Liberal Democrats blame the decision to split their defected to the party, together with a majority of efforts between the Islington South seat and the the Borough Council. However, in the 1983 general less winnable Islington North, for their failure to election Labour managed to retain the constituency translate the governance of the local council into narrowly. The new MP, Chris Smith, kept the seat a Westminster victory last time round. We can expect until his retirement in 2005. Liberal Democrat revival lots of visits from Nick Clegg during the election in local elections in Islington, saw them take control campaign as well interest from the national media of the council in 2000 and in 2002, they won every because of its location just a few tube stops away council seat in Islington South & Finsbury. Labour from Westminster. has since won back all its council seats in Islington South & Finsbury, so this is by no means a gimme: Fox, a seasoned campaigner and media performer Fox will have to work hard for all 485 of the votes operates well under the spotlight – and although she needs to return a Lib Dem MP. Despite London a reflective and thoughtful character, she can be Mayor, Boris Johnson’s high profile as an Islington surprisingly feisty and aggressive on the stump. resident, the Conservatives came fourth in Islington Her barnstorming 2007 hustings speech won over South in the Euro elections, and a former Tory PPC wavering local members and it’s expected she’ll be John Szeremy is the latest high profile endorsement a useful and regular media performer for Clegg in to have defected and backed Fox’s campaign. the next parliament, having already faced the scrutiny of the national broadcast media in 2005.

“I fully support Bridget Fox and the excellent work she does campaigning locally.” MP

CONTACT A: 3N Leroy House, 436 Essex Road, E: islington [email protected] London N1 3QP W: www. bridget4islington.wordpress.com T: 020 7354 0571

36 THE NEXT GENERATION The Electoral Battlegrounds

Louise Abbott Senior Account Manager, Insight Public Affairs

In General Elections there are three types of seats political junkies watch to try to predict the election result: bellwether contests that historically fall to the winning party, key marginals that decide majorities and scandal hit safe seats that fall to popular outsiders. In 2010 however, every seat has the potential for high drama. The expenses scandal has added considerably to the high turnover of MPs that one would expect at the end of a third term Government. Many constituencies that were once safe, bed-blocker seats are being fought by new and dynamic candidates. In such tumultuous times, election night will surely cede a number of unpredictable results. Here are a few contests that are worth keeping an eye on. BELLWETHERS AND KEY MARGINALS Recent boundary changes mean that there are only really two reliable bellwethers remaining, Dartford (Dr Howard Stoate MP) and Chorley ( MP) that have both followed the national result in every election since 1964. In 2010, Dartford is likely to turn blue, along with a number of other ultra-marginals in Kent. The key seat to watch here is Dover: the safest of Labour’s 7 Kent seats in 2005, if Charlie Elphicke wins here, Cameron is likely heading to Number 10. For Cameron to gain a single-figure majority, the constituencies of Hyndburn (6.9% swing), Kingswood (6.85% swing) and Derby North (6.8% swing) will have to switch from Labour to the Conservatives. In the South West, where the Conservatives could take as many as 10 seats from the LibDems, close contests are likely in Torbay, and Somerset and . The most marginal is Somerset and Frome where Annunziata Rees-Mogg needs only a 0.6% swing to unseat LibDem incumbent David Heath.

UPSETS There are three key seats that might provide break through opportunities for the minor parties: Pavilion for the Greens (Caroline Lucas), Barking for the BNP (Nick Griffin) and Buckingham for UKIP (Nigel Farage). Expect great theatre in all three contests but perhaps only one upset. With 35% of the vote in a recent ICM poll and a clutch of local council wins, Lucas is the hot bet in Brighton Pavilion. As much as it would delight the Conservatives to see Ed Balls decapitated (electorally) in Morley and Outwood, a notional majority of 9,784 and a required Conservative swing of 12.3%, makes this impossible. However, vulnerable high profile figures include in East Renfrewshire (majority 6,657). This was a safe Conservative seat until 1997. If Richard Cook can face down the current Secretary of State in 2010, this might mark the start of a Conservative fight back north of the border.

PARLIAMENTARY EXPENSES The expenses scandal has rocked voter trust in MPs and will be a decisive factor in many local contests. The majority of MPs embroiled in the worst transgressions have either stood down or been ousted saving a great number of defeats to outsiders standing on an anti-scandal platform. Those MPs that have clung on during the expenses storm are the most vulnerable and should be watched closely. Former Home Secretary is particularly vulnerable in . Conservative PPC Karen Lumley requires only a 4.6% swing and even Smith admits her prospects are bleak. Serial house flipper Margaret Moran is standing down in South, but (Conservative) and Gavin Shuker (Labour) will be fighting Esther Rantzen for every last vote in this key marginal. With so many close contests to watch, the possibility of a hung Parliament and the prospect of several senior members losing their seats, get your popcorn ready for a gripping election night.

37 THE NEXT GENERATION: THE TARGET SEATS Retiring MPs and PPCs

Labour (91) Name Constituency PPC Website Hilary Armstrong Durham North West Pat Glass Erith and Thamesmead www.teresapearce.co.uk John Battle West www.rachelreeves.net Liz Blackman Erewash ALL WOMEN SHORTLIST Des Browne Kilmarnock and Loudoun Cathy Jamieson MSP www.cathyjamiesonmsp.co.uk Colin Burgon Elmet and Rothwell James Lewis www.jameslewis.me.uk Stephen Byers Tyneside North ALL WOMEN SHORTLIST Sheffield Central Paul Blomfield www.paulblomfield.co.uk Colin Challen Morley and Rothwell SEAT ABOLISHED Ben Chapman Wirral South Alison McGovern Bury North Maryam Khan Michael Clapham Barnsley West and Penistone SEAT ABOLISHED Tyne Bridge CANDIDATE NOT SELECTED (new constituency ) Leyton and Wanstead CANDIDATE NOT SELECTED Frank Cook Stockton North www.stockton-north.com Jim Cousins Newcastle upon Tyne Central Chi Onwurah www.chi4central.com Ann Cryer Keighley Jane Thomas www.janethomaslabour.co.uk John Cummings Easington www.grahamemorris.com Claire Curtis-Thomas Crosby (new constituency Sefton Central) Janet Dean Burton Ruth Smeeth www.ruthsmeeth.co.uk Livingston Graeme Morrice Bill Etherington Sunderland North (new constituency Sunderland Central) www.julie4sunderland.com Barbara Follett Stevenage Sharon Taylor www.sharontaylor4stevenage.com Neil Gerrard Walthamstow www.workingforwalthamstow.org.uk Nigel Griffiths Edinburgh South CANDIDATE NOT SELECTED Selby Jan Marshall (new constituency Selby and Ainsty) Mike Hall Weaver Vale CANDIDATE NOT SELECTED Doug Henderson Newcastle upon Tyne North Catherine McKinnell www.catherinemckinnell.co.uk Stephen Hesford Wirral West CANDIDATE NOT SELECTED Patricia Hewitt Leicester West Liz Kendall www.lizkendall.org Keith Hill Streatham Chuka Umunna www.streathamlabour.org.uk Kim Howells Pontypridd CANDIDATE NOT SELECTED Beverley Hughes Stretford and Urmston Kate Green www.kategreen.org John Hutton Barrow and Furness John Woodcock www.john-woodcock-for-furness.org Brian Iddon Bolton South East www.yasminqureshi.org.uk Adam Ingram East Kilbride, Strathaven Michael McCann and Lesmahagow Lynne Jones Birmingham Selly Oak SEAT ABOLISHED Martyn Jones Clwyd South Bolton West Julie Hilling www.juliehilling.org.uk

38 THE NEXT GENERATION: THE TARGET SEATS

Labour continued Name Constituency PPC Website Fraser Kemp Houghton and Bridget Phillipson (new www.bridgetphillipson.co.uk Washington East constituency Houghton and Sunderland South) Jane Kennedy Liverpool Wavertree Luciana Berger www.lucianaberger.com David Lepper Brighton Pavilion Nancy Platts www.nancyplatts.com Tom Levitt High Peak Caitlin Bisknell Andrew Mackinlay Thurrock Carl Morris www.carlmorris4thurrock.com Bob Marshall Teresa Murray (new www.teresamurray.org.uk Andrews constituency Rochester and Strood) Eric Martlew Carlisle Michael Boaden www.ericmartlew.org.uk Christine McCafferty Calder Valley Stephanie Booth www.stephbooth4caldervalley.co.uk Ian McCartney Makerfield Yvonne Forargue John McFall Dunbartonshire West CANDIDATE NOT SELECTED Rosemary McKenna Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Gregg McClymont www.eastdunbartonshire East labourparty.org.uk Alan Milburn Darlington Jenny Chapman www.jennychapman.co.uk Margaret Moran Luton South Gavin Shuker www.gavinshuker.org Elliot Morley Scunthorpe Colne Valley www.debbieabrahams4 colnevalley.org.uk Chris Mullin Sunderland South SEAT ABOLISHED Denis Murphy Wansbeck CANDIDATE NOT SELECTED Doug Naysmith Bristol North West Sam Townsend www.samtownend.com Eddie O'Hara Knowsley South SEAT ABOLISHED Bill Olner Nuneaton Jayne Innes www.jayneinnes.org.uk Dudley South ALL WOMEN SHORTLIST Greg Pope Hyndburn Graham Jones Bridget Prentice Lewisham East www.heidialexander.org.uk John Prescott Hull East Karl Turner Ken Purchase Wolverhampton North East Emma Reynolds www.emmareynolds.org.uk John Reid Airdrie and Shotts ALL WOMEN SHORTLIST Martin Salter Reading West Naz Sarkar www.readingwest.com Mohammed Sarwar Glasgow Central Anas Sarwar www.sarwar4glasgow.com Clare Short 1 (Independent) Birmingham Ladywood Shabana Mahmood www.shabanamahmood.co.uk Sion Simon Birmingham Erdington CANDIDATE NOT SELECTED Alan Simpson Nottingham South Lilian Greenwood www.liliangreenwood.blogspot.com John Smith Vale of Glamorgan Alana Davies www.alanadavies.co.uk Helen Southworth Warrington South Nick Bent Ian Stewart Eccles SEAT ABOLISHED Howard Stoate Dartford John Adams www.dartfordlabourparty.org.uk Edinburgh East Sheila Gilmore David Taylor (Deceased) Leicestershire North West Ross Willmott Paddy Tipping Sherwood Emilie Oldknow www.emilie4sherwood.co.uk

39 THE NEXT GENERATION: THE TARGET SEATS Retiring MPs and PPCs Continued

Labour continued Name Constituency PPC Website Mark Todd Derbyshire South Michael Edwards www.southderbyslabour.org.uk Islwyn CANDIDATE NOT SELECTED Paul Truswell Pudsey Jamie Hanley Des Turner Brighton Kemptown Simon Burgess www.iwc2.labouronline.org Neil Turner Wigan Lisa Nandy Kitty Ussher Julie Cooper www.juliecooperforburnley.co.uk Rudi Vis Finchley and Golders Green Alison Moore Robert Wareing 2 Liverpool West Derby www.twigg4westderby.com Alan Williams Swansea West Geraint Davies www.geraintdavies.org.uk Betty Williams Aberconwy Ronald Hughes Michael Wills Swindon North Victor Agarwal www.victor4stanwell.org.uk Tony Wright Cannock Chase Susan Woodward Derek Wyatt Sittingbourne and Sheppey Angela Harrison www.sittingbourneand sheppeylabour.org.uk (1) Independent Labour (2) Deselected – may stand as Independent

Conservative (38) Name Constituency PPC Website Peter Ainsworth Surrey East CANDIDATE NOT SELECTED Michael Ancram Devizes Claire Perry www.claireperry.org.uk Peter Atkinson Hexham ww.guyopperman.blogspot.com Tim Boswell Daventry Chris Heaton-Harris www.heatonharris.com Angela Browning Tiverton and Honiton Neil Parish www.neilparish.co.uk Bournemouth West www.localconservatives.com Derek Conway Old Bexley and Sidcup MP www.jamesbrokenshire.com Sir Staffordshire South David Curry Skipton and Rippon Julian Smith www.juliansmithppc.com 1 (Labour) Grantham and Stamford Nick Boles www.nickboles.com Christopher Fraser Norfolk South West www.elizabethtruss.com Paul Goodman Wycombe www.stevebaker.info John Greenway 2 Ryedale SEAT ABOLISHED John Gummer Suffolk Coastal Therese Coffey www.theresecoffey.com Douglas Hogg Sleaford and North Hykeham Stephen Phillips www.stephenphillips.org.uk John Horam Orpington Jo Johnson Michael Howard Folkestone and Hythe www.damiancollins.com Michael Jack Fylde www.markmenzies.org.uk Robert Key Salisbury John Glen www.johnglen.org Julie Kirkbride Bromsgrove Sajid Javid www.sajidjavid.com Jacqui Lait Beckenham Bob Stewart www.beckenhamconservatives.com Michael Lord Suffolk Central and Ipswich North Daniel Poulter www.drdanielpoulter.com Andrew Mackay Bracknell Phillip Lee www.phillip-lee.com David Maclean Penrith and The Border Rory Stewart www.rorystewart.co.uk

40 THE NEXT GENERATION: THE TARGET SEATS

Conservative continued Name Constituency PPC Website Humphrey Malins Woking Jonathan Lord www.workingconservatives.org.uk John Maples Stratford-on-Avon CANDIDATE NOT SELECTED Michael Mates Hampshire East www.damianhinds.info Malcolm Moss Cambridgeshire North East Steve Barclay www.stevebarclay.net Andrew Pelling Croydon Central www.gavin4croydon.com Michael Spicer Worcestershire West Harriet Baldwin www.harriettbaldwin.com Richard Spring Suffolk West Matthew Hancock Anthony Steen Totnes Sarah Wollaston www.drsarah.org.uk Ian Taylor Esher and Walton Dominic Raab www.domraab.blogspot.com Peter Viggers www.caroline4gosport.co.uk Maidstone and The Weald www.helengrant.org David Wilshire Spelthorne Kwasi Kwarteng www.kwart2010.com Ann Winterton Congleton Fiona Bruce www.fionabruce.co.uk Sir Nicholas Winterton Macclesfield David Rutley www.macclesfieldconservatives.com (1) Elected Conservative – defected Labour – deselected (2) Anne McIntosh selected for new constituency Thirsk and Malton

Liberal Democrat (7) Name Constituency PPC Website John Barrett Edinburgh West Michael Crockart Colin Breed South East Cornwall Karen Gillard www.karengillard.org.uk David Howarth Cambridge Julian Huppert www.julianhuppert.org.uk Paul Keetch Hereford and South Herefordshire Sarah Carr www.sarahcarr.org.uk Mark Oaten Winchester Martin Todd www.martintod.org.uk Matthew Taylor Truro and Falmouth Terrye Teverson www.terryeteverson.org and Knaresborough Claire Kelley www.clairekelley.org.uk

Other (3) Name Constituency PPC Website Iris Robinson Strangford CANDIDATE NOT SELECTED Adam Price Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Jonathan Edwards Alex Salmond Banff and Buchan Eilidh Whiteford

41 THE NEXT GENERATION: THE TARGET SEATS PPC data analysis

This analysis looks at the candidates selected in seats where the sitting MP is retiring. The data has been compiled based on information in public domain, and is correct as at 8 February 2010.

OVERVIEW We know the age of 56 of the Labour Party’s •138 MPs have announced they are retiring, have candidates: been deselected or have seen their constituency 25 – 30: 12 candidates (21 percent) abolished due to boundary changes. Of those, 91 are Labour, 37 are Conservative, 7 are Liberal 31 – 35: 10 candidates (18 percent) Democrats and 3 represent other political parties. 36 – 40: 8 candidates (14 percent) •Labour have selected 70 candidates to fill these 41 – 45: 8 candidates (14 percent) seats, the Conservatives have selected 36. 46 – 50: 9 candidates (16 percent) GENDER 51 – 55: 7 candidates (13 percent) •9 out the 36 Conservative seats (25 percent) have 56 – 60: 1 candidate (2 percent) selected women – a net gain of 4 women. 61 or older: 1 candidate (2 percent) •41 women have been selected in Labour seats, plus five seats are yet to select from all women We know the age of 33 of the Conservative Party’s shortlists (total 61 percent), representing a net gain candidates: of 27 women. 25 – 30: 0 candidates (0 percent) COUNCIL EXPERIENCE 31 – 35: 6 candidates (18 percent) •Of the 70 Labour candidates, 36 have experience 36 – 40: 16 candidates (49 percent) serving as Councillors (51 percent). 41 – 45: 5 candidates (15 percent) •Of the 36 Conservative candidates, 8 have 46 – 50: 4 candidates (12 percent) experience serving as Councillors (22 percent). 51 – 55: 1 candidate (3 percent) AGE 56 – 60: 1 candidate (3 percent) •The average age of candidates is Labour 40.1, Conservatives 40, Liberal Democrats 44.5. 61 or older: 0 candidates (0 percent)

•12 of Labour’s candidates (21 percent) are aged 30 ETHNICITY or younger, a total of 22 candidates are under 35 •The Conservatives have selected 4 ethnic minority (39 percent). candidates in Conservative-held seats (12 percent). •None of the Conservative candidates are under the •The Labour Party has selected 10 ethnic minority age of 30 but 6 are under 35 (18 percent). candidates in Labour-held seats (14 percent).

42 THE NEXT GENERATION: THE TARGET SEATS New constituencies and boundary changes in marginal seats

NEW SEATS 13 new seats are created following boundary changes, of which 10 are notionally Conservative and three Lib Dem:

New Conservative seats Notional majority Conservative PPC Broadland Conservative majority 5121 (10.6%) Keith Simpson Chelsea and Fulham Conservative majority 10724 (30.2%) Greg Hands Derbyshire Mid Conservative majority 2971 (6.8%) Devon Central Conservative majority 1744 (3.7%) Filton and Bradley Stoke Conservative majority 1201 (2.9%) Jack Lopresti Kenilworth and Southam Conservative majority 8992 (19.5%) Meon Valley Conservative majority 1990 (4.1%) George Hollingbery Northamptonshire South Conservative majority 10617 (24.3%) Witham Conservative majority 7045 (16%) Wyre and Preston North Conservative majority 14567 (28.7%) Julian Sturdy New Lib Dem seats Notional majority Lib Dem PPC Chippenham Lib Dem majority 1260 (2.7%) Duncan Hames St Austell and Newquay Lib Dem majority 630 (1.6%) Stephen Gilbert Outer Lib Dem majority 1821 (4.5%) Madeleine Kirk

BOUNDARY CHANGES There are 20 seats that, had they been fought with the new 2010 boundaries in 2005, would theoretically have been won by another political party. In many cases the changes in these seats are actually very small, but because the seats were very marginal in 2005 they notionally change hands going into this election.

Conservative seats notionally gained by Labour Labour PPC Lancaster and Fleetwood Clive Grunshaw Croydon Central Gerry Ryan Milton Keynes North Hammersmith Andrew Slaughter Northampton South Clyde Loakes Labour seats notionally gained by Conservatives Conservative PPC Somerset North East Jacob Rees-Mogg Staffordshire Moorlands Selby and Ainsty Gillingham and Rainham Portsmouth North Penny Mordaunt Thanet South Laura Sandys Sittingbourne and Sheppey Gordon Henderson Rochester and Strood Wirral West Esther McVey Ealing Central and Acton Angie Bray Enfield North Nick de Bois Labour seats notionally gained by Liberal Democrats Liberal Democrat PPC Oxford East Steve Goddard Liberal Democrat seats notionally gained by Conservatives Conservative PPC Somerton and Frome Annunziata Rees-Mogg Plaid Cymru seats notionally gained by Labour Labour PPC Arfon Alun Pugh

43 THE NEXT GENERATION: PARLIAMENTARY CANDIDATES TO WATCH About Insight Public Affairs

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