Annex 1 Data for gird square NR 36 on Islay available from the NBN Gateway

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Species groups occurring in the 10km Grid Square NR36

This 10km square report shows a map of the square NR36 and lists the species groups recorded in it. To customise the report to your needs, use the dataset selection table at the bottom of the page and the "Refine..." filter options.

Clicking on a species group name will generate a list of species.

Species groups for species recorded in NR36: Download species data for all groups

» amphibian • Species list About the • Species records species group » annelid table » arachnid Map of NR36 The species groups table is » bird generated using » bony fish

datasets to (Actinopterygii) which you have access. Note, » conifer species from other groups » crustacean may have been » flowering recorded in plant other datasets, (Anthophyta) but you do not have access » them. » insect - beetle Click on a » insect -

species group to butterfly view its list of » insect - species recorded in the 10km damselfly square. » insect - © Crown Copyright. All rights reserved NERC 100017897 2004

dragonfly » insect -

grasshopper » insect - true

bug (Hemiptera) » liverwort

(Hepatophyta)

» mammal

» mollusc » moss

(Bryophyta)

» pteridophyte

» reptile » stonewort

(Charophyta)

Summary of datasets which have species records for NR36

You have access to the following datasets Provider Dataset (Click the (Click the Dataset Your Sensitive Download View Use name for title for more Resolution Resolution access raw data Attributes contact information) details) Scotland Joint Nature Otter Survey Conservation 100m Full Database Committee Carabid data for Great Britain from Ground the Ground Beetle 100m 10km Beetle Recording Recording Scheme Scheme held by BRC BRC Biological Reptiles and Records 100m 10km Amphibians Centre Data BRC aquatic Heteroptera Biological dataset Records 100m Full loaded 23rd Centre July 04 Joint Nature Seabird 2000 Conservation 100m Full Committee Spider Recording Scheme's Spider Provisional Recording 100m Full Atlas of Scheme British Spiders dataset BRC Biological Mammals Records 100m Full Database Centre MNCR Joint Nature JNCC Conservation 100m Full Marine Committee Dataset BRC Orthoptera Biological dataset Records 100m Full loaded 23rd Centre July 04 Butterfly distributions for Great Britain for the period 1970-82 Butterfly 100m Full from the Conservation Biological Records Centre and Butterfly Conservation Standing Scottish Waters Natural 100m Full Database Heritage BRC Biological Coccinellidae Records 100m Full Data Centre Database for Biological the Atlas of Records 100m Full Freshwater Centre Fishes Butterfly distributions for Great Britain prior to 1970 from Butterfly the 10km 10km Conservation Biological Records Centre and Butterfly Conservation Vascular Botanical plants Society of 100m 1km database for the British Great Britain Isles Bryophyte data for Great Britain British from the Bryological 100m 10km British Society Bryological Society held by BRC BRC Mollusca Biological dataset Records 100m 10km loaded 27th Centre July 2004 Butterfly distributions for Great Britain for Butterfly the period 100m 10km Conservation 1995-99 from Butterfly Conservation Dragonfly Biological and Records 100m Full damselfly Centre records for Great Britain from the Odonata Recording Scheme held by the Biological Records Centre

The following datasets have species records for NR36, but you do not have access

to use them Provider (Click the name for Dataset (Click the title for more information) contact details) The New Atlas of Breeding Birds in Britain and British Trust for Ornithology Ireland: 1988-1991. (staff)

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Annex 2 Analysis data for 2 species of obtained from the NBN showing changes in range associated with climatic change

Chrysotoxum arcuatum

Chrysotoxum cautum

Chrysotoxum arcuatum C. cautum both

10km square distribution for England & Wales from published Hoverfly Atlas (Ball & Morris, 2000).

Two attractive and frequent : • C. arcuatum is a northern and western species • C. cautum is a south-eastern species • Their distributions appear mutually exclusive, - i.e. there are very few places were both have been found (the map shows only 3 10km squares – shown in red – for both) Chrysotoxum arcuatum C. cautum both

Results from a GARP (Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Production) model fitted to observations from the Hoverfly Recording Scheme for the period 1980-1989. Working here on 5km square grid. The environmental layers used where: Land user maps from CEH • Woodland cover (Broadleaved + Conifer + Scrub) • Grassland cover (Permanent pasture, semi-natural, rough/wet grass) • Heathland (Upland and lowland dense + open) Weather data from UK Climate Impact Programme • Mean minimum daily temperature in February 1980-89 • Mean maximum daily temperature in July 1980-89 • Mean monthly rainfall in October 1980-89 Topographical data from OS • Mean altitude • Mean slope

The model fits the observed data pretty well except that it predicts the occurrence of C. arcuatum on Dartmoor/Exmoor and C. cautum in the Merseyside area. The latter has been confirmed subsequent to publication of the Hoverfly atlas based on re-checking museum specimens.

Chrysotoxum arcuatum C. cautum both

Predicted distributions in 2020s (Medium-high Emissions scenario)

The GARP model was then run replacing the 1980-89 weather variables with those predicted from the Medium-high emission scenario for 2020s.

The prediction suggests a loss of range of C. arcuatum with a tendency to retreat to high altitude in North Wales and the Pennines. It also shows range changes in C. cautum, with some loss from the extreme south of England, but a major expansion into Yorkshire and Durham and into Mid-Wales with the possibility of records extending to the Scottish borders.

The following table summarises the changes and shows an overall loss to the range of C. arcuatum in England & Wales of about 33% whilst C. cautum increases by about 67%.

Predicted changes in number of 5km squares, 1980s to 2020s

name gain lost same 102 713 1,130 C. arcuatum 1,575 540 984 C. cautum