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Bunker Hill (BNKR CN, BHLL US) Initiation: ex Barrick team building USA mining franchise RECOMMENDATION: BUY TARGET: C$0.60/sh RISK RATING: HIGH SHARE DATA Shares (basic, FD) 164 / 287 USA Pb-Zn miner with silver optionality and ex Barrick power team 52-week high/low (Cc) 0.27 / 1 Bunker Hill Mining is fast-tracking a restart of the iconic Bunker Hill mine in Market cap (C$m) 51 northern Idaho. The 2Q21 PEA inventory of 5Mt @ 9% ZnEq (60-25-15 Zn-Pb- Net cash (debt) (C$m) 6.4 Ag) supports ~~41kt pa ZnEq at US$0.86/lb ZnEq AISC over 10Y from a FD EV (C$m) 15 modernized underground mine. Existing infrastructure and shallow ore body Average daily value (C$m, 3M) 0.03 enable a 15M US$42m restart for reported post-tax NPV8% of US$78m. The ex Barrick team is now looking to add HG Ag veins, and evaluate Silver Valley FINANCIALS CY22E CY23E CY24E consolidation as well as other precious metal acquisitions / consolidation. Prod'n (000t ZnEq) - 40.5 41.1 This time really is different: new team & approach, caveat emptor lifted AISC (US$/lb ZnEq) - 0.70 0.76 Prod'n (000t AgEq) - 4.2 4.2 Previously Liberty Silver, Bunker rebooted with the 2020 appointment of ex Barrick COO Richard Williams as Chair, ex GM Sam Ash as CEO, plus Head of AISC (US$/t ZnEq) - 10.52 11.87 Closure / Rehabilitation Brad Barnett as VP Sustainability. The new group Revenue (US$m) - 18.3 92.5 cleaned up the balance sheet, severed all ties with prior investors including Net income (US$m) - 2.1 23.9 SEC-sanctioned promoters, and today has legacy caveat emptor lifted to allow EPS (Cc) - 1.49 17.40 US retail trading of the stock. This team has put ESG at the forefront of their PER (x) - 20.8x 1.8x plans to build a premier mining company in the U.S, starting with the resurrection CFPS (Cc) - - 3.88 of the Bunker Hill Mine and Silver Valley consolidation opportunities ahead. FCF yield (%) 0% 0% 28% EBITDA (US$m) 3.6 33.1 - The thesis: Pb-Zn opens the mine, re-interpretation highlights Ag EV/EBITDA (x) - - - Silver represents ~15% of the metal in the current PEA. However, some 15% the Silver Valley’s historic >1.2Boz of Ag production made up the ~50% NSR PRICE TARGET (C$/sh): C$0.60c/sh from Bunker Hill as discrete high-grade veins contributed. The company’s 3D model capturing >95 years of digitized data and 180km of drilling has highlighted an abundance of high-grade silver exploration targets after the ‘ah hah’ moment 1.20 2.4 identifying post-mineralization faults to pinpoint offsets of high-grade historically TSX vol mined veins, plus preferential host rock and post-closure PhD studies. 1.00 2.0 (m)vol. daily Average Consolidation and opportunities: building a company around a mine 0.80 1.6 Four mills operate in the Silver Valley today, but Bunker Hill has the only shallow above water-table ore, with attractive upfront margins driven by the quick ramp 0.60 1.2 up and high grades. That, and management’s background, place the company well to evaluate consolidation, a key piece of the intangible upside in our view. C$/sh 0.40 0.8 With high-grade brownfield silver optionality, a domestic location and ex Barrick management team, this under-the-radar name has all the right ingredients to 0.20 0.4 grab investor attention in coming years. - - Initiate coverage with BUY rating and C$0.60/sh PT We model the PEA for an asset NPV7% of US$129m at 127c/lb Zn, 104c/lb Pb and US$24/oz Ag, and apply a 0.5xNAV multiple given the PEA-status. We add Source: Fidessa resources outside the PEA at just 5% in-situ (ie 120c/oz AgEq), plus cash and from options, net of ~US$22m of option and EPA payments due to CY24. As such, we initiate coverage with a BUY rating and C$0.60/t PT. Silver drilling and Brock Salier +44 7400 666 913 [email protected] further studies in 2H21 should act as key catalysts ahead of the restart on one Justin Chan +44 7554 784 688 [email protected] of the few domestic mining assets in the USA that require no major permits. Brandon Gaspar: +1 437 533 3142 [email protected] Eleanor Magdzinski: +1 705 669 7456 [email protected] Bunker Hill, June 14 2021 Zinc-lead restart with high-grade silver optionality, in the heart of Idaho’s ‘Silver valley’ Pre 1991 closure, the Bunker Hill UG mined 35Mt @ 12.1% ZnEq or (557Moz @ 495g/t AgEq, 35-34-31 Ag-Pb- Zn*), making it the largest producing mine in the Coeur D'Alene Zn-Pb-Ag mining district in northern Idaho, alongside still-operating Lucky Friday and recently restarted Galena. The mine shut after a silver price fall from US$42/oz to US$8/oz made environmental upgrades of processing and smelting operations prohibitive. Post Superfund site remediation, and a revamped ex Barrick management team plus government support, the Bunker Hill Mine requires no major permits to restart mining operations. The 2Q21 PEA outlined a low cost US$42m build for production of ~41kt ZnEq pa (~4.4Moz AgEq) over a 10-year mine life from a mining inventory of 5Mt @ 9% ZnEq (52Moz @ 328g/t AgEq), a subset of the 9.1Mt @ 8.0% ZnEq resource (85Moz @ 289g/t AgEq). Bunker is infill drilling while concurrently aiming to bulk out high-grade silver resources by drilling high-grade silver vein offsets and extensions at Sierra Nevada (340-500g/t) and Caledonia (685-1030g/t) veins. The goal is to take those to reserve with lower cost UG drilling once in production, bulking out the mine plan from there. Figure 1. Location in (A) Idaho’s (B) Silver Valley showing (C) section with neighbouring mines Source: Bunker Hill Corporate history: legacy Superfund site remediated, new mine-building team takes over from promoters Liberty Silver Corp was renamed to Bunker Hill Mining in late 2017 after taking an option to purchase the asset from Placer Mining (expires in 3Q22). Despite securing an agreement with the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to operate the Bunker Hill mine, ending 14 years of Superfund litigation, the company quickly ran into financial trouble as former shareholder Bobby Genovese ultimately accepted a permanent penny-stock ban from the SEC for share price manipulation. The step-change came with a clean management slate, concurrent with share consolidation, and several key financings. Essential to Bunker’s transformation was former Barrick COO Richard Williams joining as Chairman, and former Barrick GM, Sam Ash, as CEO in 1H20, along with Brad Barnett as VP Sustainability, former head of closure for Barrick. Management cleaned up the balance sheet in 2020, reducing debt, renegotiating the purchase price down by 30%. Digitisation of the project’s historical data into a 3D model then formed the basis of the maiden MRE in 3Q20. This formed the foundation for the current 1Q21 MRE, and also identified several new high-grade silver exploration targets in the upper levels of the mine, themselves the subject to drilling underway now. Figure 2. Corporate evolution of Bunker Hill against share price, shares out and market cap EPA agreement New Chairman New CEO Maiden MRE 1.5m @ 648g/t Ag MRE 4m@997g/t AgEq PEA Genovese litigation Option agreement $10m@125c $5m@125c $0.5m@75c $3m@5c $4m@56c $20m @ 35c $3m@49c $8m@40c 5050c Source: Bloomberg *All ZnEq and AgEq in this report at SCP LT US$24/oz Ag, US$1.27/lb Zn, US$0.91/lb Pb Sprott Capital Partners Equity Research 2 Bunker Hill, June 14 2021 Step 1: Turn lemons into lemonade as Superfund site legacy saves costs and accelerates permitting Historic operations discharged polluted water and tailings into streams, waste stockpiles generated acid mine drainage, and air emissions contaminated the soil and groundwater. The evolving environmental landscape and modernizing costs ultimately drove the closure. The EPA declared it a Superfund site, with over $200m spent by 2007 on clean up and water management. That process expanded to the entire Silver Valley, using funds from two large court settlements. The restart gained momentum in 1Q18 when Bunker Hill secured the right to operate the mine without incurring liability for prior contaminants migrating from the mine in exchange for annual cash payments over seven years totalling US$20m. The new PEA excludes an onsite smelter. To date, Bunker Hill has successfully reduced the metal content released from the mine by ~70%, with a long-term solution for sustainable water management over the life of the mine once underground access is put in place. Figure 3. Bunker Hill asset history summary 1885 to present Source: Bunker Hill Step 2: Management cleanout adds tier-one leadership and governance, with technical mine building skills The Bunker Hill management team is here to build a company, hence understanding the DNA is key. A key interim issue was Bunker’s past association with Bobby Genovese, a large shareholder who settled with the SEC in 2019 over trading in the Liberty Silver era in 2012. Cutting ties completely, the new team’s backbone is the ex Barrick trio; Chairman Richard Williams, former COO of Barrick who handpicked Sam Ash, former GM who led the successful turnaround of the Lumwana Copper mine for Barrick, and Brad Barnett, experienced in managing several of Barrick’s Superfund sites.
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