Potential for Forecasting Inundation from Flooding and Storm Surge: a Case Study of a Small Urban Catchment During Ex Tropical Cyclone Oswald
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Potential for forecasting inundation from flooding and storm surge: a case study of a small urban catchment during ex Tropical Cyclone Oswald. Takehiko Nose 1, Joanna M. Burston 1, Daniel Gee 1, and Rodger Tomlinson 1 1 Griffith Centre for Coastal Management, Griffith University, Southport, Qld, Australia; [email protected] Abstract Forecasting inundation resulting from the dynamics of storm tide combining with freshwater flooding in estuarine environments and the behaviour of wave set-up in tidal inlets is complex yet important for effective disaster management. As part of a Griffith University project sponsored by the Queensland (Qld) State Government, a case study of a small urban catchment with a wave-dominated tidal inlet is used to investigate the potential for numerical modelling of such processes. Ex Tropical Cyclone (TC) Oswald, January 2013, generated freshwater flooding, storm surge and extreme wave conditions along eastern Qld coastline, causing extreme water levels in the case study site of Currumbin Creek on the Gold Coast. A field survey following this event combined with measured discharge, wave, and hydrographic data allows analysis of the hydrodynamic response of the system using numerical modelling. A numerical model built using DHI’s MIKE21 is used to simulate interactions between the riverine flood, storm surge and waves within the tidal inlet during the ex-TC Oswald event. In particular, the effect of possible wave set-up at the entrance on the tailwater level is investigated. We conclude that dynamical forecasting of inundation due to a combination of storm tide, extreme waves and freshwater flooding in such environments requires detailed inputs, including accurate discharge, tailwater levels and up-to-date bathymetry. Keywords: numerical modelling, Currumbin Creek, wave setup, storm surge, tropical cyclones, coastal estuary 1. Introduction to investigate potential improvements to Qld’s Water levels in tidal inlets during extreme weather capabilities in forecasting storm surge inundation events exhibit complex behaviour due to the risk for emergency planning purposes. Here, a case number of and dynamic interaction between the study has been developed to investigate the physical processes operating. These processes complexities involved in forecasting storm tide include storm surge, elevated riverine flow in inundation in tidal inlet environments. The aim of response to extreme rainfall, astronomical tide and this study is to investigate the contribution of various possible wave set-up, as well as evolution of the processes to the extreme water levels measured morphology due to channel scouring and longshore from the field survey of Currumbin Creek carried out sediment. Understanding the response and after ex-TC Oswald through numerical modelling. sensitivity of extreme water levels for urbanised tidal inlets is important from an emergency management The Gold Coast was chosen as the case study perspective. Much of the risk posed by storm tide location given historical impacts of TCs and along the Gold Coast, Qld, is to properties with population exposure to flooding. The Gold Coast exposure to flooding from the combination of storm has been exposed to infrequent TC events including tide and riverine flooding in small urban catchments. a series in 1974 including TC Pam, TC Dinah However, the dynamics of storm tide combining with (1967), the 1954 cyclone and several events from freshwater flooding in such environments and the the 1880s, to 1930s [5]. These cyclonic events have behaviour of wave set-up in tidal inlets are not well caused major coastal impacts including flooding, understood. The current practise of flood engineers beach erosion, and barrier breakthrough. Since and disaster managers when assessing the risk of these major events, the Gold Coast has inundation in real-time is to apply a tailwater level experienced intensive development including consisting of the astronomical tide combined with a proliferation of canal estates along its urban static estimation of the peak storm surge from BoM waterways. warnings to a flood model (pers. comm., Gold Coast City Council (GCCC)). The present practise is to In January 2013, the Gold Coast was impacted subtract any allowance for wave set-up from the upon by ex-TC Oswald, with accompanying heavy tailwater level for Gold Coast catchments. rainfall, persistent east-north-east winds and associated storm surge and high wave conditions This study, part of the Griffith Centre for Coastal coinciding with spring tides (Section 3) causing Management (GCCM)’s “Coastal Emergency severe beach erosion and some localised Management Decision Support System” project, an inundation. While this event was not particularly initiative of the Qld State Government in partnership severe, it underlined the vulnerability of the Gold with DHI Australia, Qld Cyber Infrastructure Coast to TC events and provided an opportunity to Foundation and Emergency Management Qld, aims investigate the physical processes contributing to oceanic inundation. GCCM staff conducted a field recorded around 09:00 28 th January (all times given survey of the open beaches and of the inundation in AEST (+1000 UTC)). around the small urban catchment of Currumbin Creek (Figure 1). 2. Study Area Currumbin Creek (28.135 °S, 153.465 °E) is located between Currumbin Beach to the south and Palm Beach to the north on the Gold Coast of eastern Australia and has a catchment area of 48 km2 (Figure 1). The creek entrance can be classified as a tidal inlet rather than an estuary given the generally low freshwater discharge, and is trained with rock training walls on both the northern and southern sides. The southern training wall connects to Currumbin Rock. Along with annual maintenance Figure 2. Synoptic chart showing the position of ex-TC dredging of the entrance, these walls serve to keep Oswald, 11:00 AEST 28 th January 2013 (source: BoM). the entrance open to the sea, improving water quality within the estuary and mitigating flood impacts [7]. The entrance morphology is dynamic in response to longshore transport from the south and episodic ocean swell events [6]. The Currumbin Creek area has high ecological significance and is a popular recreational destination for surfers, boating and fishing. Figure 3. Measured wind (a) speed and (b) direction at the Gold Coast Seaway for ex-TC Oswald, Jan 2013 (data source: BoM). The peak significant wave height recorded by the Gold Coast Waverider buoy during the event was 6.27 m at 10:38 28 th January 2013 with an associated peak wave period of 11.71 s (data source: DSITIA) (Figure 4). The peak wave direction was persistently east to east-north-east throughout Figure 1. Location of Currumbin Creek, SE Qld, Australia. the event. This would be a 5-10 year event in terms of wave height for the Gold Coast [1]. A maximum 3. Event Description: TC Oswald, Jan 2013 water level of 1.395 m AHD was measured at the TC Oswald developed in the Gulf of Carpentaria on Southport tide gauge located within the Gold Coast 21 st January 2013, making landfall as a Category 1 Broadwater (Figure 5) at 09:50 28 th January, being system on the west coast of Cape York Peninsula 0.565 m above the predicted high tide of 0.83 m [2]. The following morning, Oswald dissipated to an (data source: Maritime Safety Qld). The tidal ex-TC and tracked southward just inland of the east residual fluctuated between two peaks: 0.708 m at coast of Qld and NSW before moving offshore near 15:30 27 th January and 0.707 m at 01:50 28 th Sydney on 29 th January (Figure 2). This event January, and a minimum of 0.446 m at 21:10 27 th impacted the Gold Coast from 26 th –28 th January, January. Numerical modelling indicated that this with persistent east to east-north-east sub-100 km/h fluctuation was attributable to a variation in offshore wind gusts measured at both the Gold Coast wind speed at this time. The tidal residual at this site Seaway and Coolangatta (Figure 3). The maximum is not representative of the open ocean residual 1-min wind speed of 22.5 m/s (81 km/h) was given the complexity of this system with connections to Moreton Bay, multiple freshwater inputs and the Flooding was evident for Tallebudgera Creek, constriction of the Gold Coast Seaway. Currumbin Creek and the Nerang River system although no properties were inundated. The flood event was estimated to be approximately a one in 20 year event by GCCC flood engineers. 3.1. Field Survey Description GCCM staff undertook a field survey of the Currumbin Creek catchment and surrounding open beaches on 1 st February 2013 to measure the spatial position and elevation of the highest debris line position, used to infer the peak water level, using a Leica GS15 GPS with a positional accuracy of 0.02 m for open locations. The field survey results generally show an increase in the inferred peak water level from within the creek to the open ocean (Figure 7). A debris line position Figure 4. Measured wave (a) heights and (b) peak period of 1.7 m AHD was measured beneath the Gold for the Gold Coast Waverider buoy for ex-TC Oswald, Jan Coast Hwy Bridge. At Thrower Drive Bridge, debris 2013 (data: DSITIA). line positions of 1.46 m and 1.42 m AHD were measured on the western and eastern sides of the creek, respectively. Further upstream, the debris line position on the bank opposite the Currumbin Waters canal estate was 1.44 m AHD. East of the Gold Coast Hwy Bridge, the debris line position was generally higher than at the bridge. The debris line position in the north-western corner Figure 5. Predicted tide, measured and residual water of the estuary mouth varied between 1.75-2.16 m levels within the Gold Coast Broadwater for ex-TC Oswald, Jan 2013 (data: MSQ).