26 November 2013 Americas/United States Equity Research Biotechnology Global Biotech & Pharma: The HCV Revolution - Edition 2 Research Analysts COMMENT Ravi Mehrotra PhD 212 325 3487
[email protected] What Is The N Number: Keeping An Eye On Vamil Divan, MD 212 538 5394 Potential Longer Term Pricing Disruption
[email protected] Koon Ching PhD ■ No pricing disruption expected in the near-term, but potential exists in 212 325 6286 the medium- to long-term. OK this is somewhat obvious, but bear with us:
[email protected] Value/NPV = Price x Mkt Share x Mkt Size x Mkt Longevity. This is the Bruce Nudell PhD second note in our "The HCV Revolution" series. HCV is clearly a highly 212 325 9122 competitive therapeutic area with many players vying for their share of the
[email protected] potentially >$15B/year HCV market. We previously addressed immediate- European Pharma Team 44 207 888 0304 term pricing of next-generation regimens, specifically for Sofosbuvir (LINK).
[email protected] In this note, we simply highlight the potential number of competing all-oral, Ronak H. Shah, Pharm.D., CFA IFN-free regimens, and timing of key data, in HCV (Exhibits 1-7). The 212 325 9799 number of ultimate competitors has important implications for the HCV
[email protected] market. In our view, in a HCV market with up to 4−5 players, we expect Lee Kalowski "normal drug rules" to apply: i.e. the order to market, overall clinical profile of 212 325 9683 drug, and commercial prowess will primarily dictate market share, with price
[email protected] used as a tool but not in a "disruptive" way.