Cumbria Local Economic Assessment November 2010

2. Economy of Cumbria: Geographical Context

A key factor in understanding the economy of Cumbria concerns the unique characteristics of the geography of the County and the historical legacy inherited from past phases of development. The physical size of the County, the dispersed distribution of its population and the relative remoteness of the west coast have combined over time to create both economic advantages and disadvantages for communities. In terms of its physical location, Cumbria is the most north-westerly county of England which is bounded to the north by the Scottish council area of Dumfries and Galloway. To the east, Cumbria borders on the counties of Durham and Northumberland within the North-East Region of England, while to the south, the county’s neighbours include parts of North Yorkshire and Lancashire.

2.1 Location and Administrative Areas The county consists of six local authority districts: Allerdale, Barrow-in-Furness, Carlisle, Copeland, Eden and South Lakeland. In addition to the County Council and Six District Councils, Cumbria also includes the Lake District National Park (LDNP) and part of the Yorkshire Dales National Park (YDNP). These scenic landscapes are designated under the National Parks and Access to the Countryside Act 1949 and are governed for the purposes of strategic and local planning by separate National Park Authorities which operate across district administrative boundaries.

Figure 2.1: Map of Cumbria showing District Boundaries

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2.2 Size and Population Density

With an area of 676,724 hectares (2,613 square miles, Cumbria is the second largest County Council area in England (after North Yorkshire). However Cumbria also has the second lowest population density (0.73 persons/ha) among English counties, and there are only five urban areas with a population of over 20,000. Eden District in particular is very sparsely populated (0.24 persons/ha). In contrast, the borough of Barrow has the highest population density of all the districts at 9.09 persons per hectare. Cumbria's largest settlement, the city of Carlisle is located in the north of the county.

Figure 2.2: Area, Population and Population Density

Population Area Population Density (hectares) (MYE 2009) (persons/ha) Allerdale 124,158 94,300 0.76 Barrow 7,796 70,900 9.09 Carlisle 103,998 104,700 1.01 Copeland 73,174 69,700 0.95 Eden 214,236 51,800 0.24 S Lakeland 153,362 103,800 0.68 Cumbria 676,724 495,200 0.73 Source: ONS

Figure 2.3: Area and Population by District as a Proportion of Cumbria Total

18% 19% 23% 21%

Allerdale 1% Barrow

Carlisle 11% 14% Copeland 15% Eden

S Lakeland

32% 14% 11% 21%

Source: ONS

It is not uncommon for Cumbria to be regarded as one of England’s most picturesque rural counties. It is certainly true that tourist visitors continue to be attracted to the County for this reason. It is nonetheless also the case that most of the centres of population in Cumbria are the product of a process of industrialisation that has its roots in the 19th century and continuing through to the present.

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Census records show that the population of Cumbria grew very rapidly in the 19th century following the discovery of iron ore and coal in the west of the County. So too, the construction of the Furness Peninsula railway in 1843-46 prompted the largest period of expansion from the 1840s- 1890s. During this time the population almost doubled from around 250,000 to 435,000, with about a third of this population increase (60,000) occuring in Barrow alone. Elsewhere in the county, Carlisle enjoyed its most rapid period of growth during the 1820s and 30s when scottish and irish immigrants migrated to the city to gain employment in the booming textiles industry. In South Lakeland, Kendal was an important centre for shoe and snuff making in the early 19th century and the construction of the windermere railway in 1847 spurred the development of the area as a tourist destination. Penrith on the other hand was an important commercial centre for agricultural products.

The dominant pattern of change through the 20th century has involved gradual decline of the traditional industrial base and successive attempts to attract new investment. With the exception of the major expansion of the nuclear industry in West Cumbria since the 1940s, attempts to diversify the economy through inward investment have not been able to compensate for the loss of jobs in traditional industries As a consequence, the county has experienced extended periods of selective out-migration of younger people which has been particularly severe in West Cumbria and Furness. Yet areas of Cumbria have continued to attract in-migrants who are drawn to the area partly by its outstanding natural environment . This trend has continued In recent years and has contributed to economic growth but also created its own set of problems in driving up property prices, particularly in rural areas. This issue will be looked at more closely in chapter 5.

Figure 2.4: Historic Population Growth in Cumbria, 1801-2001

600000

500000

400000

300000

200000

100000

0 1801 1841 1881 1921 1961 2001

Source: ONS/Vision of Britain 2008, Census records

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2.3 Key Service Centres

Cumbria has 24 designated Key Service Centres outside the National Park and a further 4 within the NP which are used by the County Council for delivery purposes (see Figure 2.5). Four of the designated KSCs are locations identified in the Cumbria Sub Regional Spatial Strategy 2008-2028 for major development (Carlisle, Barrow, Workington and Whitehaven), a further 4 (Maryport, Ulverston, Kendal and Penrith) are identified for sustained development of large towns, while the remainder are identified for moderate development appropriate to the scale of the town. The Lake District National Park has adopted a core strategy which identifies 13 Rural Service Centres and other authorities are also defining Local Service Centres in their Local Development Frameworks which will be identified for small scale development.

Figure 2.5: Key Service Centres in Cumbria

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2.4 Labour Market Self-Containment

Economic flows often cut across local authority boundaries. This means that the functional area over which the local economy and its key markets operate will not necessarily adhere to administrative boundaries. The proportion of residents who live and work in the same area is described as self-containment. Territories defined by this principle have a number of advantages not least in terms of income retention in local areas but also in that it facilitates effective planning of infrastructure and housing to satisfy the demands of businesses and employers located in the area. There is no doubt that levels of commuting between local areas has increased considerably in recent decades as car ownership has risen and transport infrastructure has improved. Despite this generalisation, levels of self-containment have remained fairly high in Cumbria

Figure 2.6: Change in Self-Containment, 2001-08

Where do residents work? Where do workers live? 2001 2008 Change 2001 2008 Change

Cumbria 90.2 89.6 -0.6 94.3 96.3 2 Allerdale 77.1 73.7 -3.4 78.6 84.5 5.9 Barrow 86.4 87.2 0.8 78.9 82.2 3.3 Carlisle 83.1 75.9 -7.2 87.1 93.0 5.9 Copeland 73.1 82.1 9 88.2 77.9 -10.3 Eden 70.7 75.9 5.2 84.1 82.7 -1.4 S Lakeland 82.3 83.7 1.4 80.5 86.7 6.2 Source: Office for National Statistics

Figure 2.6 shows that in 2008, 89.6% of Cumbria’s residents also work in the county. Looking at the county’s total workforce we can see that 96.3% of the individuals are also resident in the county. Both of these figures are exceptionally high in comparison to other parts of Great Britain. We can also say that 10.4% of Cumbria’s residents work outside the county. This is the 4th lowest figure for any county in England (after Norfolk, East Sussex and Lincolnshire). In addition only 3.7% of workers in Cumbria live outside the county. This is the lowest figure for any English county.

Even at District level, labour market self-containment is fairly high. Self-containment measured by resident’s workplace, for instance, ranges from 73.4 in Allerdale to 87.2 in Barrow. However it is wise to exercise an element of caution when interpreting the measures of self-containment at a district level. Taking Copeland as an example, we see that it is highly self contained, with residence self-containment of 78% and workplace self containment of 82%. Of working residents of Copeland 14% (+/-7) work in Allerdale but estimates for other places of work have confidence intervals which encompass zero. Of people that work in Copeland, 9% (+/-6) come from Allerdale. Clearly the confidence levels involved in this analysis make drawing any solid inferences from this data unwise – and these are the two districts with the highest levels of inter-commuting. As such, drawing any conclusions relating to commuting flows at a district level in Cumbria is not advisable.

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2.5 Housing market areas

Housing Market Areas (HMAs) are an alternative geographical area which can be used to define a functional region. Cumbria has 20 housing market areas which in some cases cut across LA boundaries. However the boundary of the 20 areas (see map below), when taken collectively, are co-terminus with the County Council boundary. HMAs were also agreed at a regional level and again, as the map below shows, the 10 HMA boundaries for the housing areas in Cumbria (amalgamations of the 20 local HMAs) were co-terminus with the county boundary. Only the HMA’s for Greater Manchester exhibit the same adherence.

Figure 2.7 / 2.8: Housing Market Areas in Cumbria and the North West.

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