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THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION 2013 INVESTOR RELATIONS MEETING Since We Last Met Glenn Renwick

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THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION 2013 INVESTOR RELATIONS MEETING Since We Last Met Glenn Renwick THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION 2013 INVESTOR RELATIONS MEETING Since We Last Met Glenn Renwick THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION 2013 INVESTOR RELATIONS MEETING 1 2012 FULL YEAR PERSONAL AUTO RESULTS 11% Cincinnati ESURANCE: +64.2% NWP, CR = 119.9 GEICO STATE AUTO: +20.8% NWP, CR = 99.5 USAA PGR PGR Direct INFINITY: +16.1% NWP, CR = 101.3 PGR Agency Erie Industry Nationwide Mercury Farmers (incl. 21st) Encompass (ALL-IA) State Farm The Hanover Group Chubb Allstate (total) 0 Horace Mann Written Premium Growth Premium Written Allstate (ALL-Brand) Hartford Travelers (IA only) -5% 108 100 96 90 Combined Ratio - Inverted Scale *Source: SNL data, company disclosures and Progressive analysis THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION 2013 INVESTOR RELATIONS MEETING 2 DEMAND FOR OUR PRODUCT IS UP PERSONAL AUTO RESULTS 15% AGENCY 15% DIRECT 10% 10% 5% 5% 0 0 Quotes- Direct YOY Growth YOY Quotes- Direct Quotes - Agency YOY Growth Quotes - Agency YOY -5% -5% (EX CALIFORNIA) (EX AFFILIATES) -10% -10% JAN 12 DEC 12 APR 13 JAN 12 DEC 12 APR 13 Ex California due to conversion of comparative rater to real-time Ex Affiliates due to variable quote quality THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION 2013 INVESTOR RELATIONS MEETING 3 MARKET DYNAMICS VS RATE MAKING PROCESS RATE MAKING DOESN’T MODEL REALITY. SPEED OF RESPONSE DIRECTLY RELATES TO SIZE OF SUBSIDY. THE CONSUMER IS DISADVANTAGED BY INADEQUATE KNOWLEDGE OF THE PHASE OF THE CYCLE. CONSUMER PAYS SUBSIDY - RATE EXCESSIVE PLE Agency COMPANY PAYS SUBSIDY - RATE INADEQUATE R3 JUL DEC MAR R2 PLE Direct Rate Level R1 JUL DEC MAR T1 T2 T3 Time THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION 2013 INVESTOR RELATIONS MEETING 4 AVERAGE WRITTEN PREMIUMS ARE UP Agency Auto Direct Auto PCA (6 month) (6 month) (Annual) $820 $820 $2900 $2000 $700 $700 2010 2013 2010 2013 2010 2013 Trailing 12-month data THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION 2013 INVESTOR RELATIONS MEETING 5 even more WE BECAME CONFIDENT IN OUR REALIZATION AND CALIBRATION OF CLEAR COST + QUALITY ADVANTAGE Drive down the curve TACTICAL DELTA LAE (as of YE 2012) 1 YR < 0.1 > 3 YR < 0.7 > 5 YR < 1.4 > Move the curve Can claims create a Total Loss Costs & LAE Total sustainable pricing STRATEGIC COMPETITIVENESS GAIN advantage? Loss Adjustment Expenses (LAE) THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION 2013 INVESTOR RELATIONS MEETING 6 Direct Channel Premium CONTINUED TO CONFIRM OUR BRAND AND PROGRESSIVE $BILLIONS ® HOME ADVANTAGE WORK WELL TOGETHER 20 AUTO + HOME 18 AUTO ONLY Auto Insurance DIRECT Industry Premium 2.2x $BILLIONS 50% OF DIRECT SALES FROM 167 IA Channel Premium ≈ 2x $BILLIONS EXISTING CUSTOMERS DIRECT 38 36 AUTO + HOME 1.8x IA 56 20 AUTO ONLY 1.6x CAPTIVE 73 IA 1.4x Captive Channel Premium 1.2x $BILLIONS DIRECT 57 AUTO + HOME TOTAL INDUSTRY 1x AGENCY PHA Bundled PIFs Relative 2011 to January 0.8x 16 AUTO ONLY 2011 2012 2013 Source: SNL, Progressive Estimates CAPTIVE THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION 2013 INVESTOR RELATIONS MEETING 7 STEEPEST DEMAND CURVE YET = MOBILE 2x MOBILE QUOTES (T3 average monthly counts) WIRELESS PAYMENT COUNTS (monthly) 1x 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION 2013 INVESTOR RELATIONS MEETING 8 RELEVANCE OF “FOR ME” MESSAGE NEEDED MORE / SINCE WE LAST MET... THAN A CALL FOR SAVINGS ANTI-SUBSIDIZATION CAMPAIGN THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION 2013 INVESTOR RELATIONS MEETING 9 THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION 2013 INVESTOR RELATIONS MEETING 10 THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION 2013 INVESTOR RELATIONS MEETING 11 6% of PPA market SAM BIOGRAPHICAL SYNOPSIS -25-year-old single male - Inconsistently insured -Often a renter -Liability only policy -Agency bias THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION 2013 INVESTOR RELATIONS MEETING 12 39% of PPA market DIANE BIOGRAPHICAL SYNOPSIS -38-year-old single female -Renter -Full coverage policy -Increasing direct bias THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION 2013 INVESTOR RELATIONS MEETING 13 43% of PPA market Robinson Family BIOGRAPHICAL SYNOPSIS -49-year-old married male -47-year-old married female -19-year-old son -Home, boat owner (bundled) -Full coverage and umbrella -Agency customer THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION 2013 INVESTOR RELATIONS MEETING 14 12% of PPA market WRIGHT Family BIOGRAPHICAL SYNOPSIS -37-year-old married male -35-year-old married female -3 children -Homeowner (self-packaged) -Continuous insurance -Full coverage, higher deductibles -Increasing direct bias THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION 2013 INVESTOR RELATIONS MEETING 15 PROGRESSIVE RELATIVE High MARKET WRIGHT FAMILY Very Low SHARE ROBINSON Average FAMILY DIANE Very High SAM THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION 2013 INVESTOR RELATIONS MEETING 16 BRAND SWITCHERS PGR estimate based on sample of 18-54 11-15% year-old survey participants WRIGHT FAMILY 6-8% ROBINSON 10-14% FAMILY DIANE 25-35% SAM THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION 2013 INVESTOR RELATIONS MEETING 17 STRATEGY Know your target - act with purpose. THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION 2013 INVESTOR RELATIONS MEETING 18 intensity high 4 3 3 3 2 4 low 1 1 PHA STRATEGY maximize retention THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION 2013 INVESTOR RELATIONS MEETING 19 intensity high 4 3 3 4 2 2 low 1 1 SNAPSHOT STRATEGY maximize conversion and retention THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION 2013 INVESTOR RELATIONS MEETING 20 intensity high 4 4 3 3 2 4 low 1 1 TEST DRIVE snapshot STRATEGY maximize addressable marketplace THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION 2013 INVESTOR RELATIONS MEETING 21 intensity high 4 3 3 4 2 3 low 1 4 MOBILE STRATEGY maximize consumer choice THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION 2013 INVESTOR RELATIONS MEETING 22 intensity high 4 2 3 3 2 1 low 1 4 NAME YOUR PRICE® STRATEGY maximize conversion THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION 2013 INVESTOR RELATIONS MEETING 23 intensity high 4 4 3 4 2 4 low 1 4 SERVICE CENTER STRATEGY build confidence THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION 2013 INVESTOR RELATIONS MEETING 24 Durable Business Model Brian Domeck THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION 2013 INVESTOR RELATIONS MEETING 25 GROW AS FAST AS POSSIBLE AT A 96 CR 100 96 92 88 Combined Ratio … a 96 combined ratio is not a ‘solve 84 for’ variable … but rather a constant 80 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 YTD 2013 THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION 2013 INVESTOR RELATIONS MEETING 26 MORE LEVERAGE TO UNDERWRITING RESULTS PROGRESSIVE PEER GROUP 8% 8% To maintain 2012 ROE of 14.5%, a To maintain 2012 ROE of 10.5%, a 6% 1-point drop in investment income requires 6% 1-point drop in investment income requires ~1-point drop in combined ratio. ~3.4-point drop in combined ratio. 4% 4% 2% 2% Investment Income 0% Investment Income 0% -2% -2% -4% -4% 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 Combined Ratio Combined Ratio PORTFOLIO $ / EQUITY $ 2.7x PORTFOLIO $ / EQUITY $ 3.5x PREMIUM $ / EQUITY $ 2.7x PREMIUM $ / EQUITY $ 1.0x1.1x THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION 2013 INVESTOR RELATIONS MEETING 27 LOWER COSTS YIELD COMPETITIVE PRICES LOSS ADJUSTMENT EXPENSE RATIO TOTAL CUSTOMER SERVICING COST PER PIF 12.5% $66 $62 11.5% $58 10.5% $54 9.5% $50 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Q1 2013 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Q1 2013 INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY COST PER PIF REAL ESTATE COST PER PIF $80 $25 $20 $70 $15 $60 $10 $50 $5 $40 $0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Q1 2013 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Q1 2013 THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION 2013 INVESTOR RELATIONS MEETING 28 COSTS LOWER, AND QUALITY IMPROVING JD POWER CUSTOMER SERVICE INDEX STUDY SM PROGRESSIVE’S CLAIMS QUALITY INDEX 820 1.0 800 0.8 780 760 0.6 740 INSURANCE INDUSTRY AVG. CLAIMS QUALITY INDEX PROGRESSIVE 0.4 720 Claims Quality Index* Customer Service Index 700 0.2 680 660 0.0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Q1 2013 *The Claims Quality Index (CQI) is an internal measure of the quality of our claim file handling. A higher CQI value indicates higher quality. THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION 2013 INVESTOR RELATIONS MEETING 29 LOWER COSTS YIELD COMPETITIVE PRICES 2012 FULL YEAR PERSONAL AUTO RESULTS 11% Cincinnati ESURANCE: +19.9% NWP, CR = 119.9 GEICO USAA PGR Direct STATE AUTO: -20.8% NWP, CR = 99.5 PGR Agency PGR INFINITY: +16.1% NWP, CR = 101.3 Erie Industry Nationwide Mercury Farmers (incl. 21st) Encompass (ALL-IA) State Farm The Hanover Group Chubb Allstate (total) 0 Horace Mann Written Premium Growth Premium Written Allstate (ALL-Brand) Hartford Travelers (IA only) -5% 108 100 96 90 Combined Ratio - Inverted Scale Source: SNL data, company disclosures and Progressive analysis THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION 2013 INVESTOR RELATIONS MEETING 30 EFFICIENT CAPITAL MANAGEMENT From January 2010 through April 2013, Progressive generated $4.0B of comprehensive income, and have returned $3.6B in the form of share repurchases and dividends. YEAR VARIABLE DIVIDEND SPECIAL DIVIDEND SHARE REPURCHASE DEBT 2010 $108M $663M $259M $223M REPURCHASED ($497M) NET ISSUED 2011 $264M $998M $15M REPURCHASED $350M RETIRED 2012 $249M $605M $174M $31M REPURCHASED 2013 YTD $172M $72M TOTAL $793M $1,268M $1,503M NET REDUCTION: $122M $3.6 Billion THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION 2013 INVESTOR RELATIONS MEETING 31 KNOW YOUR RISK PROFILE: SHORT-TAILED / HIGH FREQUENCY / LOW SEVERITY PRODUCTS PHYSICAL DAMAGE TOTAL PERSONAL AUTO 100% 100% 90% 90% 80% 80% COUNTS COUNTS 70% DOLLARS 70% DOLLARS Percent Paid Percent Paid Percent 60% 60% 50% 50% 10 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 0 4 8 12 16 Months Quarters / Many personal and commercial auto insurance consumers prefer to bundle their auto policies with higher severity products. / Progressive Home Advantage® and Progressive Commercial AdvantageSM enable us to address those customers without adding exposure to the balance sheet and diverting from our strategic discipline. THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION 2013 INVESTOR RELATIONS MEETING 32 Distribution & Product John Sauerland & Dan Witalec THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION 2013 INVESTOR RELATIONS MEETING 33 10% UNIT GROWTH IS T3 NWP CHANGE 8% PRIMARY OBJECTIVE PIF CHANGE 6% 4% PLE Agency 2% 0% APR 11 APR 12 APR 13 2013 SALES GROWTH CHANGE 5% JUL 12 DEC 12 MAR 13 0% PLE Direct -5% -10% AGENCY -15% DIRECT JUL 12 DEC 12 MAR 13 -20% JAN 13 FEB 13 MAR 13 APR 13 THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION 2013 INVESTOR RELATIONS MEETING 34 PRIMARY COMPETITOR RATE ADJUSTMENTS 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% JAN 11 JAN 12 JAN 13 SOURCE: A.M.
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