PATTERNS OF FUTURE DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTH-WEST MARINE REGION Julian Clifton, Maria Olejnik, Bryan Boruff and Matthew Tonts Institute for Regional Development December 2007 School of Earth & Geographical Sciences Prepared for the Australian Government Department of the Environment, Water, Heritage and the Arts ii © Commonwealth of Australia 2007 This work is copyright. Apart from any use permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part may be reproduced by any process without prior written permission from the Commonwealth. Requests and inquiries concerning reproduction rights should be addressed to: Commonwealth Copyright Administration Attorney-General's Department Robert Garran Offices National Circuit Barton ACT 2600 or posted at http://www.ag.gov.au/cca. The Commonwealth Department of the Environment, Water, Heritage and the Arts commissioned the Institute for Regional Development, The University of Western Australia, School of Earth & Geographical Sciences to produce this publication. The views and opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Australian Government or the Minister for the Environment, Water, Heritage and the Arts. The Commonwealth does not accept responsibility for the accuracy, completeness or currency of the contents, and shall not be liable for any loss or damage that may be occasioned directly or indirectly through the use of, or reliance on, the contents of this publication. i TABLE OF CONTENTS FIGURES AND TABLES vi LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS xi EXECUTIVE SUMMARY xii 1 INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 Background and project rationale 1 1.2 Description of the South-west Marine Region 2 1.3 Structure of Report 3 2 KEY MACRO-ECONOMIC DRIVERS 6 2.1 Introduction 6 2.2 Population growth in Australia 7 2.2.1 Recent trends in population 7 2.2.2 Projected population trends at the State and national level 8 2.2.3 Projected population trends adjacent to the SWMR 9 2.2.4 Discussion 11 2.3 Oil prices 13 2.3.1 Recent trends in oil prices 13 2.3.2 Current and future trends in oil prices 13 2.4 Australian Gross Domestic Product 16 2.4.1 Recent trends in gross domestic product 16 2.4.2 Current and future trends in gross domestic product 17 2.5 Australian foreign exchange rates 17 2.5.1 Recent trends in foreign exchange rates 17 2.5.2 Current and future trends in foreign exchange rates 17 2.6 Imports and exports 18 2.6.1 Recent trends in imports and exports 18 2.6.2 Current and future trends in imports and exports 18 2.7 Geopolitical context 19 2.8 Conclusion 20 ii 3 URBAN DEVELOPMENT 21 3.1 Introduction 21 3.2 Current status of pressure indicators 21 3.2.1 Employment 21 3.2.2 Industrial development 23 3.2.3 Transport 27 3.3 Macro-economic drivers at the international and 31 national level 3.4 Future trends within the South-west Marine Region 33 3.4.1 Employment 33 3.4.2 Industrial development 36 3.4.3 Transport 38 3.5 Conclusion 42 4 OIL AND GAS 45 4.1 Introduction 45 4.2 Current status of pressure indicators 46 4.2.1 Acreage release 46 4.2.2 Drilling activity 48 4.2.3 Annual production of oil and gas by basin 48 4.2.4 Estimated reserves and prospectivity 48 4.3 Macro-economic drivers at the international and 49 national level 4.4 Future trends within the South-west Marine Region 51 4.4.1 Acreage release 51 4.4.2 Drilling activity 53 4.4.3 Annual production of oil and gas by basin 53 4.4.4 Estimated reserves and prospectivity 53 4.4.5 Discussion 53 4.5 Conclusion 56 5 PORTS AND SHIPPING 58 5.1 Introduction 58 5.2 Current status of pressure indicators 58 5.2.1 Total tonnage 58 5.2.2 Total port calls 59 iii 5.2.3 Cargo types 59 5.2.4 International trading links 60 5.3 Macro-economic drivers at the international and 60 national level 5.4 Future trends within the South-west Marine Region 62 5.4.1 Total tonnage 62 5.4.2 Total port calls 64 5.4.3 Cargo types 65 5.4.4 International trading links 67 5.5 Conclusion 68 6 COMMERCIAL FISHING 70 6.1 Introduction 70 6.1.1 Commonwealth managed fisheries 70 6.1.2 State managed fisheries 72 6.2 Current status of pressure indicators 75 6.2.1 Tonnage 75 6.2.2 Effort 77 6.2.3 Number of licences 79 6.2.4 Location of activity 81 6.2.5 Employment 84 6.2.6 Gross Value Product 85 6.3 Macro-economic drivers at the international and 91 national level 6.4 Future trends within the South-west Marine Region 93 6.4.1 Tonnage 93 6.4.2 Effort 94 6.4.3 Number of licences 96 6.4.4 Location of activity 97 6.4.5 Employment 98 6.4.6 Gross Value Product 99 6.5 Conclusion 101 iv 7 RECREATIONAL FISHING 104 7.1 Introduction 104 7.2 Current status of pressure indicators 106 7.2.1 Number of recreational fishers 106 7.2.2 Distribution of fishing effort 109 7.2.3 Number and distribution of privately owned boats 110 7.2.4 Number and location of chartered boat operators 113 7.2.5 Total catch and species catch 114 7.3 Macro-economic drivers at the international and 122 national level 7.4 Future trends within the South-west Marine Region 124 7.4.1 Number of recreational fishers 124 7.4.2 Distribution of fishing effort 128 7.4.3 Number and distribution of privately owned boats 130 7.4.4 Number and location of chartered boat operators 134 7.4.5 Total catch and species catch 136 7.5 Conclusion 143 8 TOURISM 146 8.1 Introduction 146 8.2 Current status of pressure indicators 146 8.2.1 Numbers and location of tourism activity 146 8.2.2 Trends in demand for marina berths 147 8.2.3 Marine mammal watching industry 149 8.2.4 Marine nature reserves and sanctuary zones 151 8.3 Macro-economic drivers at the international and 152 national level 8.4 Future trends within the South-west Marine Region 154 8.4.1 Numbers and location of tourism activity 154 8.4.2 Trends in demand for marina berths 159 8.4.3 Marine mammal watching industry 160 8.4.4 Marine nature reserves and sanctuary zones 161 8.5 Conclusion 162 v 9 AQUACULTURE 165 9.1 Introduction 165 9.2 Current status of pressure indicators 166 9.2.1 Trends in volume of production 166 9.2.2 Number and location of licences 167 9.2.3 Gross Value Product 168 9.3 Macro-economic drivers at the international and 169 national level 9.4 Future trends within the South-west Marine Region 170 9.4.1 Trends in volume of production 170 9.4.2 Number and location of licences 172 9.4.3 Gross Value Product 174 9.5 Conclusion 175 10 CONCLUSION 177 11 REFERENCES 184 vi FIGURES AND TABLES FIGURES Figure 1.1 Location of the South-west Marine Region 2 Figure 1.2 Coastal sub-regions adjacent to the South-west Marine Region 5 Figure 2.1 Projected change in population by SLA, 2007-2012 10 Figure 2.2 Projected change in population by SLA, 2012-2017 11 Figure 2.3 Projected change in population by SLA, 2017-2022 11 Figure 2.4 Projected trends in world crude oil prices, 2004-2030 14 Figure 3.1 Percentage change in employment by sector, 1997-2007 22 Figure 3.2 Companies located within 50km of the coastline 25 reporting emissions to water 2006 Figure 3.3 Overall trends in urban development adjacent to the SWMR 44 Figure 4.1 Location of acreage releases in and adjacent to the 46 SWMR 2003-06 Figure 4.2 Trends in national crude oil production, 2005-2025 50 Figure 4.3 Location of permits awarded for oil and gas exploration 52 in and adjacent to the SWMR, 2004-06 Figure 4.4 Area covered by offshore exploration permits annually in and 52 adjacent to the SWMR, 2000-06 Figure 4.5 Overall trends in oil and gas exploration adjacent to the SWMR 57 Figure 5.1 Overall trends in ports and shipping adjacent to the SWMR 69 Figure 6.1 Value of abalone harvest by location in the Western 83 Australian section of the SWMR, 1996-2003 Figure 6.2 Catch and GVP data for selected Commonwealth managed 86 fisheries within and adjacent to the SWMR Figure 6.3 Catch and GVP data for South Australian managed fisheries 88 within and adjacent to the SWMR Figure 6.4 Catch and GVP data for Western Australian managed fisheries 89 within and adjacent to the SWMR Figure 6.5 Overall trends in commercial fishing activity adjacent to 103 the SWMR Figure 7.1 Location of recreational fishing zones, South Australia 105 Figure 7.2 Location of recreational fishing zones, Western Australia 105 Figure 7.3 Participation in recreational fishing South Australia, 107 1999-2000 Figure 7.4 Participation in recreational fishing Western Australia, 108 1999-2000 vii Figure 7.5 Location of postcode regions for private boat ownership in 112 Western Australia Figure 7.6 Projected total numbers of recreational fishers adjacent to the 126 SWMR, 2007-2022 Figure 7.7 Distribution of recreational boat licenses in Western 131 Australian postcode regions adjacent to the SWMR, 2004-06 Figure 7.8 Distribution of Runabout category boat licenses in Western 132 Australian postcode regions adjacent to the SWMR, 2004-06 Figure 7.9 Population and number of Runabout category licenses in 133 Western Australia, 1990-2006 Figure 7.10 Projected population and number of Runabout category 133 licenses in Western Australia, 2007-2022 Figure 7.11 Modelled estimates of recreational rock lobster harvest in 136 West Coast bioregion, 1986-87 to 2007-08 Figure 7.12 Distribution of recreational rock lobster harvest in Western 137 Australia, 1996-97 to 2007-08 Figure 7.13 Total license sales, license users and usage rates in the rock 138 lobster fishery of Western Australia, 1998-99 to 2005-06 Figure 7.14 Annual harvest of Roe’s abalone in Western Australian fishing 139 regions, 1999-2005 Figure 7.15 Annual harvest of greenlip abalone in Western Australian fishing 139 regions, 1999-2005 Figure 7.16 Annual harvest of brownlip abalone in Western Australian