Final Proof #9184—Social Psychology Quarterly—Vol

#9184—SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGY QUARTERLY—VOL. 65 NO. 3—06-gregory Social Psychology Quarterly 2002, Vol. 65, No. 3, 298–308 Spectral Analysis of Candidates’ Nonverbal Vocal Communication: Predicting U.S. Presidential Election Outcomes* STANFORD W. GREGORY JR. TIMOTHY J. GALLAGHER Kent State University Fast Fourier Transform acoustic analysis of the fundamental frequency of candidates’ voices in 19 nationally televised U.S. presidential debates from the eight elections including debates held since 1960, in conjunction with subsequent factor analysis, shows that this nonverbal frequency, below .5 kHz, can reveal the debating candidates’ relative social dominance. Further analysis presents evidence that the candidates’ nonverbal vocalizations offer a precise metric of their relative dominance or commanding presence in the presidential campaign: when this metric is compared statistically with the candidates’ popular vote percentages for the U.S. presidency, it accurately predicts the popular vote outcomes in all of those eight elections. In previous research by the senior author beneath .5 kHz, is unique in the vocal adapta- and colleagues (Gregory 1983, 1986), inter- tion literature. view partners were found to adapt frequen- The F0 is a critical component of human cies of their voices to one another in the vocalization. When the voice is filtered elec- course of their interaction. Subsequent work tronically, however, allowing only the F0 to has refined the theory and method in this line pass, the resulting sound is perceived as a of research by showing that the acoustic low-pitched and segmented hum absent of adaptation phenomenon resides beneath .5 any clearly discernible verbal content. When kHz, otherwise known as the fundamental experimental subjects’ vocal frequencies frequency of phonation (F0) and perceived as beneath F0 are filtered from the normal con- pitch in the vocal spectrum (Gregory 1994; versational signal (leaving behind a crisp, Gregory, Dagan, and Webster 1997; Gregory clear verbal signal), the perceived quality of and Webster 1996; Gregory, Webster, and interaction, as evaluated by outside judges Huang 1993). Although the adaptation phe- hearing an unfiltered version of the experi- nomenon in conversations and interviews has mental subjects’ conversational exchange, is been reported widely by linguistic, social psy- diminished significantly (Gregory et al. 2000; chological, and communication researchers Gregory et al. 1997). Thus it is evident from (Burgoon, Dillman, and Stern 1993; Burgoon, previous studies that the low-frequency band Stern, and Dillman 1995; Capella 1981; beneath F0 is crucial for communicating criti- Chapple 1940; Jaffe and Feldstein 1970; cal social information. Natale 1975), the method used, employing Analysis of the F0 in interacting partners’ spectral analysis of the frequency band voices also indicates partners’ relative social status (Gregory et al. 2000; Gregory and * This research was funded by the Department of Webster 1996).This observation fits well with Sociology, Kent State University, by the Office of Giles and Coupland’s (1991a, 1991b) commu- Research and Graduate Programs, Kent State nication accommodation theory, known as University, and by an equipment grant from Zonic Corporation, New Milford, OH. We are grateful to CAT, whereby persons of lower social status Mr. Paul M. Gherman of the Vanderbilt University accommodate their nonverbal vocal patterns Television News Archive for supplying the video to persons of higher status; the latter modify tapes of the presidential debates used in this research. their vocal patterns relatively little. CAT was Direct correspondence to Stanford W. Gregory Jr., Department of Sociology, Kent State University, used in previous research (Gregory and Kent, OH 44242; [email protected]. Webster 1996) to explain the acoustic accom- 298 FINAL PROOF #9184—SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGY QUARTERLY—VOL. 65 NO. 3—06-gregory NONVERBAL VOCAL COMMUNICATION 299 modation patterns and relative social status researchers studying emotion in human com- of 25 celebrity guests on the Larry King Live munications often echo the observation television talk show. In that study, Mr. King made by ethologists and others that vocal vocally accommodated persons of higher encoding and decoding behavior in primates social status than himself, and persons of (for example) is remarkably similar in some social status lower than Mr. King accommo- respects to that of humans. In keeping with dated their vocal patterns to him. the subject of this paper, such behavior is The general point of CAT in connection most often connected with threats and domi- with spectral analysis of F0 is that persons nance displays (Mazur 1985; Sapolsky 1990). who occupy higher social status adjust their In connection with human vocalics, Mazur overall vocal patterns less over time, while (1985:392) supports CAT in noting that “the those of lower social status adjust their vocal high status person sets the pace and mood of patterns more to accommodate persons of the conversation, and the low status person higher social status. In this paper, on the basis follows.” of 19 televised presidential debates held Burgoon, in examining the channels of between 1960 to 2000, we present analyses of nonverbal communication in relation to data testing the association between the pop- dominance and social status, maintains that ular vote, other conventional measures of “the voice is more influential than visual cues candidate preference, and the relative social in determinations of dominance. This may be status of U.S. presidential candidates, as mea- because it is an innately used and recognized sured by F0 analysis. These results can offer signal” (Burgoon et al. 1996:316). More an objective measure of dominance in the specifically, and most compelling for the pre- presidential election that is not biased by sent research, Burgoon et al. (1996:399–403), semantic/verbal or partisan interpretation. in their survey of literatures on nonverbal persuasive behaviors and strategies that pro- THEORETICAL CONNECTION ject power and credibility, cite the quality of BETWEEN NONVERBAL VOCAL “more variety/intonation” as a key factor in COMMUNICATION AND POLITICAL “actually achieving persuasion.” This obser- DECISIONS vation has been supported in previous F0 Nonverbal Vocal Communication analysis (Gregory and Webster 1996): celebrities with the highest social status In early work on nonverbal communica- showed the greatest variation in intonation tion, Ekman and colleagues (Ekman 1965; (variation in amplitude between frequencies Ekman and Friesen 1969) used the plausible within the F0 band), to which less dominant working assumption that nonverbal commu- celebrities accommodated.1 nication channels operate under less conscious control and thus will reveal the 1 An anonymous reviewer for this article comment- speaker’s true message or feeling to a greater ed on the question of “transiency versus constancy” in extent than more consciously controlled the quality of a speaker’s vocal interaction. In the pre- channels. This assumption, connecting non- sent article we address transiency in that one candidate may adapt or accommodate his vocal qualities to verbal communications with autonomic func- the more dominant partner. Constancy was addressed tions and “truth,” carries through in Ekman’s in a previous study (Gregory and Webster 1996), in later work on deceit and continues in later which the authors, using a factor analysis technique, ranked the F vocal attributes in a sample of 25 works by others on this subject. Burgoon, 0 celebrity guests on the talk show Larry King Live into Buller, and Woodall (1996), for example, in an order of factor loads from more dominant to less their popular text on nonverbal behavior, dominant guests. This rank ordering of factor loads maintain the nonverbal/emotional and ver- was compared with a ranking of the same celebrities bal/conscious connections while updating by a sample of 596 undergraduate students; the result was a strong Pearson correlation between the F Ekman’s perspective, whereby nonverbal 0 results and the students’ rankings. The higher factor communications encode (produce) and loads for dominant guests showed a constancy quality decode (interpret) the verbal message. of F0 that was not present for less dominant guests. In The procedures of encoding and decod- other words, that research provided evidence that ing, of course, embrace content, and more dominant guests produced similar F0 spectra, or FINAL PROOF #9184—SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGY QUARTERLY—VOL. 65 NO. 3—06-gregory 300 SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGY QUARTERLY In addition, in summarizing the strate- these perceptions are constructed in the gies that project power and credibility, course of the campaign by a number of con- Burgoon et al. (1996:399) write that “‘confi- ventional attributes such as partisanship, dent’ voices evoke more compliance from issue proximity, personality and character others. Such vocal patterns have proved to be assessments, campaign funding, and media persuasive in public and interpersonal con- coverage (Rahn, Aldrich, and Borgida 1994). texts.” This observation has been supported These attributes culminate and are signified in two F0 studies conducted by the senior by the polls taken at various points before author and colleagues. In these studies, the the election;2 it is obvious that a strong show- subjects’ voice signal was altered so that their ing in the polls influences the candidate’s interaction partners did not, in

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