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A Free Trade Area Between the Republic of Moldova and the European Union: Feasibility, Perspectives and Potential Impact

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A Free Trade Area Between the Republic of Moldova and the European Union: Feasibility, Perspectives and Potential Impact A Free Trade Area between the Republic of Moldova and the European Union: Feasibility, Perspectives and Potential Impact Authors: Valeriu Prohniţchi (coordinator), Ana Popa, Alex Oprunenco, Matthias Luecke, Mahmut Tekce, Eugen Hristev, Georgeta Mincu, Victoria Vasilescu Chisinau, 2009 This study was published in the project „Trade relations of the Republic of Moldova with the European Union: Current Situation and Perspectives for Enhancement”. This project was implemented by the Expert-Grup independent think-tank with the financial support of the Moldova-Soros Foundation. Note: the statements made in this report express the opinion of the authors alone and do not necessarily correspond to the official views of the Moldova-Soros Foundation, the Government of the Republic of Moldova, the European Commission, or any other public or private entity mentioned in this publication . EXPERT-GRUP 2 Contents About Expert-Grup .................................................................................................................................. 7 About the Project .................................................................................................................................... 8 Executive summary ................................................................................................................................. 9 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................... 12 1. Major economic developments in Moldova ................................................................................. 14 From deep recession to economic growth ........................................................................................ 14 Replacing consumption-based with investment-led economic growth ............................................ 15 Moving from agrarian to modern economy ...................................................................................... 16 Significant structural changes ....................................................................................................... 16 Moldovan agriculture .................................................................................................................... 18 Current situation in industrial sector ............................................................................................ 20 Financial services ........................................................................................................................... 21 Energy sector ................................................................................................................................. 23 Transport ....................................................................................................................................... 24 Macroeconomic stabilization and new challenges ahead................................................................. 26 Conclusions ........................................................................................................................................ 27 2. Trade policy and trade relations between Moldova and EU ......................................................... 29 Moldova’s trade policy: progresses and stalemates ......................................................................... 29 General overview of the Moldovan trade policy........................................................................... 29 Non-tariff barriers and trade restrictive measures ....................................................................... 31 EU trade policy .................................................................................................................................. 35 General policy issues ..................................................................................................................... 35 EU trade policy on Moldova .......................................................................................................... 36 Moldova’s trade with EU ................................................................................................................... 37 Rebalancing the structure of the Moldova’s foreign trade ........................................................... 37 Agricultural trade between Moldova and the EU ......................................................................... 39 An analysis of the industrial exports of the Republic of Moldova ................................................ 43 Conclusions ........................................................................................................................................ 46 3. Impact of a simple Free Trade Agreement between Moldova and the EU ................................... 48 Key features of our simulation model ............................................................................................... 48 Simulation results .............................................................................................................................. 50 Growth and welfare effects ............................................................................................................... 53 Conclusions ........................................................................................................................................ 55 4. Competitiveness of the Moldovan economic sectors ................................................................... 57 Agriculture and food industry ........................................................................................................... 57 Competitiveness of the Moldovan industrial products in the world and EU markets ...................... 59 EXPERT-GRUP 3 Internationally tradable services ....................................................................................................... 62 Sensitive sectors ................................................................................................................................ 64 Conclusions ........................................................................................................................................ 66 5. Beyond trade: prospects for a Moldova-EU Deep and Comprehensive FTA ................................ 67 Sanitary and phytosanitary standards ............................................................................................... 67 Energy sector ..................................................................................................................................... 69 Priority areas of cooperation with the EU ..................................................................................... 69 The energy sector and Eurointegration......................................................................................... 71 Cooperation in area of transport ...................................................................................................... 73 Harmonising the national legislation ............................................................................................ 73 Assessment of the Moldova’s needs for promotion of transports sector euro-integration ......... 74 Banking services ................................................................................................................................ 75 Labour movement ............................................................................................................................. 76 Conclusions ........................................................................................................................................ 78 6. Main conclusions and recommendations ..................................................................................... 81 Is an FTA necessary for Moldova? ..................................................................................................... 81 Is an FTA feasible? ............................................................................................................................. 81 General recommendations for the Moldovan government .............................................................. 82 Appendix: pertinent technical aspects of CGE Models ......................................................................... 86 References: ............................................................................................................................................ 89 EXPERT-GRUP 4 List of tables Table 1 GDP growth rate, 1999=100% .................................................................................................. 14 Table 2 Moldova’s GDP per capita, as % of the regional averages ....................................................... 15 Table 3 FDI annual inflows, % of GDP .................................................................................................... 16 Table 4 Changes in the share of economic sectors in the GDP, 2006 against 1996, percentage points ............................................................................................................................................................... 18 Table 5 Growth of selected industrial sectors in Moldova, 1995=100% ............................................... 21 Table 6 Moldova main banking system indicators, 2004 – 2008, % ..................................................... 22 Table 7 Comparison of macroeconomic situation ................................................................................ 27 Table
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