For Official Use Only

Bureau of Meteorology submission to the Senate Finance and Public Administration References Committee

Inquiry on lessons to be learned in relation to the preparation and planning for, response to and recovery efforts following the 2019-20 Australian bushfire season

May 2020

For Official Use Only

Bureau of Meteorology Submission to the Senate Finance and Public Administration References Committee's Inquiry on lessons to be learned in relation to the preparation and planning for, response to and recovery efforts following the 2019-20 Australian bushfire season. The Bureau of Meteorology (the Bureau) welcomes the opportunity to make a submission to the Committee. The Bureau of Meteorology The Bureau of Meteorology is Australia’s national weather, climate and water information agency. It operates under the authority of the Meteorology Act 1955 (Cth) and the Water Act 2007 (Cth), which together describe a range of functions that underpin delivery of information, advice, forecasts, warnings and associated services to meet Australia’s needs. The Bureau is an Executive Agency under the Public Service Act 1999 (Cth), and a non-corporate Commonwealth entity under the Public Governance, Performance and Accountability Act 2013 (Cth). The Bureau operates under the Agriculture, Water and the Environment portfolio and reports to the Minister for the Environment generally, and to the Minister for Resources, Water and Northern Australia on water matters. The Bureau also provides weather, climate and water information to the Minister for Agriculture, Drought and Emergency Management. Responses to Terms of Reference Terms of Reference 1: (a) advice provided to the Federal Government, prior to the bushfires, about the level of bushfire risk this fire season, how and why those risks differed from historical norms, and measures that should be taken to reduce that risk in the future; Advice provided to the Federal Government, prior to the bushfires, about the level of bushfire risk this fire season The Bureau provided more than 100 briefings/presentations relevant to bushfire risk to Federal, State and Territory governments across Australia between 1 April 2019 and 30 November 2019. These included briefs to all levels of government and presentations to fire agencies, including to the Commissioners and Chief Officers Strategic Committee of the Australian Fire and Emergency Services Authority Council (AFAC), co-chaired by the Department of Home Affairs - Emergency Management Australia (EMA). Attachment A provides a summary of some of the key presentations given, together with the audiences they were presented to. Federal Government briefings The Bureau's role is to provide scientific information and analysis to a wide range of commonwealth government agencies, which in turn informs policy decisions that are considered by the Government. The Bureau may provide decision support at the agency level, however much of the decision-making process falls outside the purview of the Bureau itself. It is standard 1

practice for the Bureau to provide the Minister for the Environment (the Minister) advanced copies of these publications for information and awareness. The following bushfire related publications were provided:

• The joint Bureau-Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) State of the Climate Report 2018 1. In December 2018 an in-person briefing was conducted, with the then Minister for the Environment, the Minister for Industry, Science and Technology and representatives from the Bureau and CSIRO. The State of the Climate 2018 demonstrated there has been a long-term increase in extreme fire weather, and in the length of the fire season, across large parts of Australia since the middle part of the twentieth century. • Routinely, the Minister is provided with copies of climate outlooks prior to public release. The Bureau has issued these seasonal climate outlooks since 1989. Since spring 2019, the Bureau has issued rainfall and temperature outlooks 2 for timescales of two weeks, up to four months in advance. These outlooks are updated on the public website weekly, and are shared across all levels of Government, contained in regular briefs and widely subscribed to through various channels. The Bureau hosts a subscription service that ministerial staff and senior public servants avail themselves of, to regularly receive outlooks and other updates from the Bureau. o The outlooks correctly predicted above average temperatures during spring 3 and the first half of summer 4, with a continuation or worsening of dry conditions in eastern parts of Australia most affected by fires. These dry and warm conditions exacerbated the severe drought conditions and established the antecedent conditions for the bad fire season and contributed to individual bad fire weather days. • In spring 2019, information about severe weather conditions in Queensland and New South Wales was provided by way of the Special Climate Statement 71 5.Two Australian Seasonal Bushfire Outlook forecasts for the 2019-20 season that were issued by the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre (BNHCRC)were provided, the first in August 2019 6 and the second in December 2019 7. These forecasts utilised Bureau input on drought conditions and seasonal outlooks for temperature, rainfall and other key parameters. These forecasts showed increased bushfire risk across most of eastern Australia as well as part of South Australia (including Kangaroo Island) and parts of the coastal region of southwestern

1 http://www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-climate/ 2 http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/outlooks/archive.shtml 3 http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/outlooks/archive/20190829-outlook.shtml 4 http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/outlooks/archive/20191121-outlook.shtml 5 http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/statements/scs71.pdf 6 https://www.bnhcrc.com.au/hazardnotes/63 7 https://www.bnhcrc.com.au/hazardnotes/68

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Australia. The August 2019 release included a press conference 8 where fire agencies noted the Bureau's critical involvement, and expressed their concerns about the season ahead.

• In September 2019, a published article 9 noting unusual patterns over the Antarctic which significantly raised the likelihood of a hot and dry spring and summer, including increased bushfire risk was provided. The article received a direct readership in excess of 600,000. This article was based on a Bureau-led research project that was accepted for publication 10 in the journal Nature Geoscience in August 2019 State and Territory Government briefings In the first half of November 2019, the Bureau provided long-range predictions 11 of the Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) to State and Territory fire management agencies around Australia, based on a project managed by the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre. These briefings were made available to Fire and Emergency Services as part of the AFAC/BNHCRC Australian Seasonal Bushfire Outlook but were not distributed more widely noting that they were an input into the outlook process. These predictions indicated more dangerous conditions than normal for November and December 2019 throughout many regions of Australia, with conditions becoming closer to normal during January 2020, and less dangerous than normal in many regions during February 2020. The December 2019 outlook from the BNHCRC which benefit from these outlooks showed a similar outlook for the forested areas of eastern Australia. A report on changes in fire season severity was produced for the New South Wales Regional Fire Services (RFS) by the Bureau in September 2018 (Climate Change and Bushfire Risk in New South Wales, 2018), and followed by a similar report for the Queensland Fire and Emergency Services (QFES) in September 2019 (Climate Change and Bushfire Risk in Queensland, 2019). These reports were produced under the auspices of the AFAC Climate Change Working Group. The Earth Systems and Climate Change (ESCC) Hub under the National Environmental Science Programme (NESP) also developed a consolidated report on Climate Change and Bushfire weather 12 noting the increasing severity of fire seasons affecting Australia. How and why the bushfire risk in 2019/20 differed from historical norms The dangerous fire weather conditions during spring 2019 are consistent with long term increases in extreme fire weather seen in many areas of the country, arising from increasing temperatures and reduced cool season rainfall. In addition to these long-term trends, the 2019/20 fire season was particularly severe because of the coincidence of several less systemic factors. In recent years projections of bushfire risk factors in the future climate have been led by the Bureau and CSIRO, with results showing increased values of the FFDI in the future based on a

8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PYxUTi5ybS0 9 https://theconversation.com/the-air-above-antarctica-is-suddenly-getting-warmer-heres-what-it-means-for- australia-123080 10 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-019-0456-x 11 https://www.bnhcrc.com.au/research/firepredictiontools 12 http://nespclimate.com.au/wp- content/uploads/2019/11/A4_4pp_brochure_NESP_ESCC_Bushfires_FINAL_Nov11_2019_WEB.pdf

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comprehensive range of modelling approaches 13 . The results also show an increase in risk factors associated with dangerous fire generated convection events 14 in many parts of southern and southeast Australia. In extreme cases, this can include fire generated thunderstorms (pyrocumulonimbus events) such as occurred on Black Saturday in Victoria in 2009, and the Canberra fires in 2003, as well as a number of events during this recent summer in eastern Australia. Fire generated thunderstorms give rise to conditions under which fire growth and spread is extremely dangerous and unable to be fought using current means. This Bureau research on observed and modelled climate change trends in FFDI and fire generated thunderstorms risk was provided by AFAC to all State and Territory fire management agencies around Australia prior to the 2019 summer. The bushfires in 2019/20 season followed one of the most severe droughts in recorded history. 2019 was the warmest and driest year on record for Australia as a whole, and spring was also the driest on record nationally. This combination resulted in very low soil moisture levels over most of the continent leading into December, which was subsequently Australia's hottest month on record. The dry spell of 2017 and 2018 intensified in 2019 in response to several climate drivers:

• Australia's climate was impacted by a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in 2019, exerting a drying influence over many parts of the country. Positive IOD events lead to reduced rainfall and low humidity across Australia and are often associated with bad fire seasons. The positive IOD exacerbated existing dry conditions which affected much of eastern Australia during 2017 and 2018, making the existing dry spell increasingly severe during spring and early summer 2019. • During October and November 2019, a prolonged negative phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) further enhanced the warm and dry conditions in areas of eastern Australia. The unusual weather pattern over Antarctic (see earlier reference) was a major driver of the SAM, shifting the westerly winds further north over southern Australia in October and November 2019. For Australia, a negative SAM tends to have its largest impacts in New South Wales and southern Queensland, increasing spring temperatures and decreasing rainfall. The anomalies of the SAM were amongst the largest in the past decade. • It is unusual for a strong positive IOD and protracted negative SAM to occur concurrently: both favour warmer, drier conditions over south eastern Australia in spring. Since 1980, a combination of a positive IOD and protracted negative SAM has only occurred in 1997 and 2019.

13 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-46362-x 14 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2017GL076654

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The combination of the severe drought, record high temperatures, dry windy conditions, and dry forest fuels resulted in fire weather conditions considerably more dangerous than in a normal season 15 and clearly the most severe in our records. Measures that should be taken to reduce bushfire risk in the future Developing policy and operational measures to reduce bushfire risk into the future will require ongoing collaboration and support from the Bureau and affiliated research organisations, with much of the decision-making process falling outside the purview of the Bureau itself. The Bureau and affiliated research organisations collaborated extensively to track and communicate the increased fire risk across Australia for the 2019-20 bushfire season. This work continues throughout the year through bodies such as AFAC and the BNHCRC and the ongoing presence of the Bureau in State and Commonwealth control centres to maintain and strengthen our close working relationship with our emergency management and response partners. The Bureau is developing and implementing policy, technological and operational uplifts to further enhance our already comprehensive services in order to assist all levels of government, industry, and the diverse Australian public in the decision-making process. In its response to a Notice to Give Information issued by the Royal Commission into National Natural Disaster Arrangements, the Bureau has highlighted issues and suggestions for internal and external measures that could be taken regarding bushfire risk (and other natural hazards). These can be found at Attachment B . Terms of Reference 2: (b) the respective roles and responsibilities of different levels of government, and agencies within government, in relation to bushfire planning, mitigation, response, and recovery;

The Bureau’s role

As Australia's national weather, climate and water information agency, the Bureau's role is to provide climate outlooks and predictions, climate and water forecasts, severe weather warnings and ocean services to the Australian public and emergency services customers.

Regarding bushfire planning, mitigation, response, and recovery, the Bureau provides a range of services, including: • policy, technological, and operational support for our partners and end users; • providing fire weather training to staff in fire agencies; • preparing end of season fire weather reports and conducting post event de-briefs on major fires; and

• conducting research into fire weather science, including dangerous fire weather phenomena such as fire generated thunderstorms through partnership arrangements with other organisations such as the BNHCRC.

15 http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/statements/scs73.pdf 5

Further, the Bureau provides gridded forecasts of weather and fire indices for the next seven days to fire agencies through the Australian Digital Forecast Database (ADFD) service.

• Fire Danger Ratings (FDRs ) and Fire Danger Index maps : Produced during the bushfire season and made available twice a day (morning and afternoon) to the general public through the Bureau website and via media outlets, such as the ABC. The morning FDR covers forecasts for today and the following three days. The afternoon FDR provides a forecast for the following four days. The morning Fire Danger Index maps provides forecasts for today only, while the afternoon Fire Danger Index map provides forecasts for tomorrow only.

• Fire Weather Forecast: The Bureau provides a fire weather forecast with detailed weather and fire weather parameters for the next four days. This is made available to agencies through the Bureau's usual distribution channels.

• Fire Weather Warnings: Issued by the Bureau to the public indicating regions affected and the severity of the fire weather that is expected. These are generally issued in partnership with fire agencies when the Fire Danger Rating is at ‘Severe’ or above or where agencies require them for operational reasons (e.g. resource allocation for existing fires).

• Forecast fire danger ratings: Communicated in State, district and relevant city forecasts during the fire season. Drought Factor is provided (as Fire fuel dryness factor) in the Bureau Meteye application.

• State agency forecasts and information: Some State fire agencies present Bureau fire weather forecasts and information on their websites. Embedded meteorologists working in State Control Centres and severe weather, and senior meteorologists in State and Territory forecast centres, regularly discuss forecast policy and agency requirements for information, particularly during critical situations. This information may form the basis for the agency’s public information or contribute to the agency’s public warning information.

• Seasonal fire weather outlooks: The Bureau provides critical input to seasonal fire weather outlooks provided to State and Territory fire agencies by the BNHCRC, in August and November, with outlooks for temperature and rainfall presented as national maps for the months across the summer. These products are publicly available through the Bureau's website and social media channels. Widespread media coverage also occurs.

The roles and responsibilities of the different levels of government, and agencies within Government, are agreed and documented in the Australian Emergency Management Arrangements Handbook 16 . The Bureau is specifically mentioned in the handbook (page 6), as an

16 https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/handbook-9-australian-emergency-management-arrangements/ 6

example of Commonwealth support that can be provided on a local, state and territory, or national scale. As described in the Bureau’s response to TOR 1 (a), the Bureau provides long-range forecasts (weeks and months ahead) and pre-season briefings to support strategic preparedness by Australian, State and Territory Governments ahead of the warm season. Formal examples of these briefings include, but are not limited to:

• Pre-season Preparedness Briefings hosted by the Department of Home Affairs – Emergency Management Australia (EMA), at which the Bureau presents information on climate drivers, weather and seasonal outlooks on national and local scales as required, and • The Hazards Services Forum, a series of regular meetings involving operational staff and senior executives from state and territory emergency management organisations, formalised under an Intergovernmental Agreement (discussed further in the next section).

ANZEMC sub-committees The Bureau is also represented as a technical advisor at the Department of Home Affairs-led Australian-New Zealand Emergency Management Committee 17 (ANZEMC) sub-committees: • Mitigation and Risk Sub-committee (MaRS) • Community Outcomes and Recovery Sub-committee (CoRS) These sub-committees are responsible for informing policies and capabilities, and delivering outputs, that strengthen Australia’s and New Zealand’s preparedness for and resilience to natural and human caused events, in particular those with severe and catastrophic consequences . Involvement in AFAC Groups The Bureau is an observer of the AFAC Commissioners and Chief Officers Strategic Committee (CCOSC). The AFAC Board established CCOSC in December 2013 to provide jurisdictional consideration and representation on behalf of AFAC Council to the Federal Government. The CCOSC membership represents each Australian Commonwealth, State and Territory jurisdiction; New Zealand; Land Management agencies; SES agencies; Air Services; and AFAC. The Bureau is represented at AFAC's Rural Land Management Group. The Rural and Land Management Group provides AFAC with operational and policy advice in relation to fire management in the natural and rural environment. The group works closely with the Forest Fire Management Group, and the North Australia Fire Managers Group, and sponsors the Fire and Emergency Aviation Technical Group. The Bureau has three representatives in AFAC’s Climate Change Working Group. This group is responsible for bushfire planning and risk mitigation in relation to long-term climate predictions and trends. This includes key planning activities such as considering revisions to standards in a

17 https://www.homeaffairs.gov.au/help-and-support/how-to-engage-us/committees-and-fora/australia-new- zealand-emergency-management-committee 7

changing climate, as well as planning for enhanced resilience to more extreme events including events outside of that experienced previously. The Bureau is also represented at the AFAC Predictive Services Group. The group are nationally focused and advocate the future direction of Predictive Services through collaboration and coordination. The initial focus of the group has been on bushfires. National Working Group for Public Information and Warnings

The Bureau is represented at the National Working Group for Public Information and Warnings (Warnings Group). The Warnings Group is tasked with sharing the outcomes of the Australia New Zealand Emergency Management Committee (ANZEMC) 2014 National Review of Warnings and Information (NRWI) , addressing the findings and opportunities, and overseeing implementation of the Report's recommendations. Australian Government Crisis Coordination Centre

The Bureau also produces each day a National Hazard Outlook (NHO) that is provided to the Australian Government's Crisis Coordination Centre (CCC). The NHO provides situational awareness of the potential impact of extreme weather and is used by the CCC for its planning purposes for the week ahead. The Bureau provides twice weekly briefings to the CCC, which is extended to daily during significant events upon request. Advice to State and Territory fire agencies The Bureau also provides regular advice to State and Territory fire agencies in the lead up to the fire season, daily during the fire season, on request for specific fire incidents and on request during planned burning season. Role in Bushfire Recovery The Bureau also plays an important supporting role in bushfire recovery as part of our core business. Our public facing weather and climate products and services, and our deep relationships with our emergency management partners allows us to provide information that is often vital to support the operations of NGO's such as the Red Cross, community and volunteer agencies, local council and traffic management authorities, insurance companies, and other recovery efforts. Role during the 2019-20 bushfires During the 2019-20 fires, the Bureau mobilised its national capability to ensure the safety of communities across Australia impacted by bushfires. The Bureau worked in close cooperation with emergency managers, first responders and Governments during these events. The extent of the Bureau's deep cooperative relationships with our emergency management partners is demonstrated by the inclusion of senior specialist staff embedded at State Emergency Management Control Centres. These operationally embedded Bureau specialists provide key decision makers with the latest data, information and insight on fire weather.

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The Bureau provided critical support to the CCC, Australian Defence Force and industry, including the energy, aviation, water and agriculture sectors. The Bureau provided 24/7 information to the community through warnings and forecasts delivered through multiple media channels. The Bureau's national scale enabled capability from around Australia to be quickly deployed in response to the threats posed by bushfires, as well as other concurrent severe weather events such as heatwaves and Tropical Cyclones. The Bureau's coordinated effort underpins the ability of governments, industry and the community to prepare, respond and recover from the impacts of bushfires and other natural hazards. Terms of Reference 3: (c) the Federal Government’s response to recommendations from previous bushfire Royal Commissions and inquiries; The 'Black Saturday' Victorian bushfires of 2009 led to the establishment of the 2009 Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission (VBRC). The Bureau demonstrated a comprehensive response to the recommendations of the VBRC. The Bushfires Royal Commission Implementation Monitor Progress Report (July 2011) recorded that all actions and items relevant to the Bureau (recommendation 5.1 from the VBRC Interim Report, and items 1h, 1i, and 1j listed in the Progress Report as mapping to recommendation 1 from the VBRC Final Report) were marked as complete. Terms of Reference 4: (d) the adequacy of the Federal Government’s existing measures and policies to reduce future bushfire risk, including in relation to assessing, mitigating and adapting to expected climate change impacts, land use planning and management, hazard reduction, Indigenous fire practices, support for firefighters and other disaster mitigation measures; Assessing, mitigating and adapting to climate change impacts The Bureau's role is to provide information in the form of forecasts, warnings, advice and assessments to inform decisions. Acting on this information then generally sits with users, including Emergency Service Authorities. Analysis from the Bureau and our collaborators shows that Australian fire seasons are changing, which poses a range of challenges to bushfire responses and societal preparedness. Changes include an increase in the frequency and severity of dangerous fire weather 18 conditions through large regions of Australia, an earlier than usual beginning and later than usual cessation of the fire danger period, as well as increased risk factors for dangerous fire generated convection events 19 in southern and southeast Australia. These are important foundational considerations when assessing the adequacy of existing measures and policies to reduce future bushfire risk.

18 http://www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-climate 19 http://nespclimate.com.au/wp- content/uploads/2019/11/A4_4pp_brochure_NESP_ESCC_Bushfires_FINAL_Nov11_2019_WEB.pdf

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Working with partners including CSIRO, our intelligence and physical modelling has been a significant input into the National Resilience Task Force 20 through the Australian Vulnerability Profile (AVP) and National Disaster Risk Reduction Framework and assisted with the National Disaster Risk Information Service Capability (NDRISC). The Bureau works closely with AFAC members including state fire agencies and EMA to inform future fire management practices. AFAC has recently formed a Climate Change Working Group, which, amongst a range of activities, has developed the AFAC Climate Change and the Emergency Management Sector 21 Discussion Paper and associated information pieces. The emergency services are proactive in developing and using information about future bushfire risk, drawing heavily on science and services from the Bureau and partner agencies. Noting the pace at which changes are occurring, there is a need to strengthen and codify these collaborations and to ensure future responses are calibrated to our evolving bushfire risk. As stated above, significant changes are projected for future fire weather 22 . These changes will continue to place significant strain on natural and human systems including emergency services. Noting that substantial changes 23 have already occurred in our climate 24 and that future change is inevitable 25 , Federal and State Government measures and policies will need to be informed by the latest science knowledge and advice. Services from the Bureau can assist by supporting resilience-building activities and practices for communities, technology and infrastructure, as well as directly assisting with practical solutions in the near term. As an example, improved weather and climate forecasts assist agencies in responding to harsher fire weather from days to seasons, while climate change projections help guide planning for the year ahead. In the context of a changing climate, approaches must consider risks across different timeframes, and include tactical as well as more strategic responses. To better inform future bushfire responses, there is a need to develop future climate (projection) intelligence which has sufficient accuracy at fine spatial scales. Decision making for future bushfire risk (over the next few years to decades), requires very detailed future climate change projections which adequately sample rare and extreme events. To be policy relevant, these need to be at spatial resolutions which inform decisions at the local scale. The Bureau has recently developed a detailed reanalysis 26 (historical gridded climate data) across Australia at 12 kilometre spatial scales, downscaled over city domains to just 1.5 kilometres. There would be significant value in building upon this data to enable a more accurate assessment of severe fire weather historically and into the future. To predict future bushfire risk, high-resolution future projections can describe the types of future bushfire conditions that are plausible and therefore need to be prepared for. Some preliminary

20 https://www.aidr.org.au/news/national-resilience-taskforce-on-the-knowledge-hub/ 21 https://www.afac.com.au/docs/default-source/doctrine/AFAC-Climate-Change-Emergency-Management-Sector.pdf 22 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-46362-x 23 http://www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-climate/ 24 https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JAMC-D-17-0167.1 25 https://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/en/publications-library/technical-report/ 26 http://www.bom.gov.au/research/projects/reanalysis/ 10

modelling has been undertaken as part of the Energy Security and Climate Information project partnering with Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO), CSIRO and the Department of Agriculture, Water and Environment to develop local scale severe weather projections. However, to unlock the quantifiable information to enable real future planning around bushfire risk, a substantial investment in developing these localised projections would be required. This data can, however, provide the building block for informing future climate resilience (not just around bushfires) and suitable pathways for adaptation. They can also place recent fire weather in a broader context and assist with scenario planning. The Bureau has highlighted issues and suggestions for internal and external measures that could be taken regarding bushfire risk (and other natural hazards). These can be found at Attachment B. Terms of Reference 5: (e) best practice funding models and policy measures to reduce future bushfire risk, both within Australia and internationally; Responding to bushfire risk requires extensive inter-agency collaboration, support and information sharing. The Bureau is committed to continuing to improve our services to support key decision makers in their respective fields of expertise. The Bureau is unable to comment on funding models or policy measures outside our purview. Terms of Reference 6: (f) existing structures, measures and policies implemented by the Federal Government, charities and others to assist communities to recover from the 2019-20 bushfires, including the performance of the National Bushfire Recovery Agency; As stated in the Bureau’s response to TOR 2(b) , the Bureau plays an important supporting role in bushfire recovery as part of our core business. Our public facing weather products and services, and our deep relationships with our emergency management partners allows us to provide information that is vital to support the operations of NGO's such as the Red Cross, community and volunteer agencies, local council and traffic management authorities, insurance companies, and other recovery efforts. The Bureau’s response to TOR 2(b) also outlines the Bureau's role with ANZEMC sub-committees. Terms of Reference 7: (g) the role and process of advising Government and the federal Parliament of scientific advice; Responsibilities of the Bureau under the Meteorology Act 1955 (Cth) include: the promotion of the advancement of meteorological science by means of meteorological research and investigation or otherwise, and the furnishing of advice on meteorological matters. Scientific advice from the Bureau is primarily provided to the Australian Government through the Department of Agriculture, Water and the Environment to the Minister for the Environment. The Bureau contributes to key policy initiatives, for example the Bureau's participation in the National Resilience Taskforce 27 , housed within the Department of Home Affairs. The Taskforce developed

27 https://www.aidr.org.au/news/national-resilience-taskforce-on-the-knowledge-hub/ 11

the National Disaster Risk Reduction Framework, which was co-designed with representatives from all levels of government, business, and the community. The Bureau co-authors, with the CSIRO, the biennial State of the Climate Report 28 , which plays an important role in monitoring, analysing and communicating observed changes in Australia's climate. The Bureau leads research on bushfire risk for the Department of Agriculture, Water and the Environment through the National Environmental Science Program (NESP) Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub. Studies of climate variability and projections of extreme weather under climate change are providing relevant information and datasets to assist governments, industries and other stakeholders to better manage their current and future climate risks. As per the Bureau’s response to TOR 1(a) , please see Attachment A for a summary of the most comprehensive summaries, reviews, and analyses undertaken by the Bureau between 1 April 2019 and 30 November 2019 that demonstrate the Bureau's communication of scientific advice to various levels of government. Also see the Bureau’s response to TOR 2 (b) referring to the Bureau's role with ANZEMC sub-committees. Terms of Reference 8: (h) an examination of the physical and mental health impacts of bushfires on the population, and the Federal Government’s response to those impacts; and The Bureau is aware of the significant health impacts bushfires create for the Australian community. In acting to reduce these risks, the Bureau offers a range of services, which are then used by response agencies and the public to reduce social and health impacts. As an example, our forecasts are a primary input into decisions made by emergency services, including fire suppression activities and warnings issued to at risk communities. The Bureau's health related products and services are focussed on one particular area: the impact of smoke. The Bureau issues forecasts to help with the handling of smoke events arising from prescribed burning and bushfires. Poor air quality due to bushfire smoke has significant impacts and results in premature deaths in the community. For example, it has been reported 29 that 417 excess deaths, 3,151 hospital admissions and 1,305 emergency department attendances could be attributed to smoke from the 2019-20 bushfire season across Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria. The Bureau has developed (in partnership with CSIRO and the Victorian Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning) an operational smoke forecasting system (AQFx) for Victoria and New South Wales. AQFx which is described further in Attachment B enables emergency management to make better decisions about when and where to conduct prescribed burns to avoid exposing the community to harmful levels of smoke. It also assists with community warnings about hazardous smoke from bushfires. This smoke forecasting system could be extended to the rest of the nation and

28 http://www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-climate/ 29 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.5694/mja2.50545 12

improved to specifically model bushfire emissions, in addition to prescribed burning. This is strongly supported by the fire, emergency management and health sectors. AQFx is an example of the Bureau's transition towards impact-based forecasts and warnings, recognised as best-practice by the World Meteorological Organisation . Impact-based forecasts and warnings are designed to communicate the likely effects of the weather rather than just the weather conditions: what the weather will do, rather than what the weather will be. This will assist health, emergency management, community organisations, and the diverse Australian public better prepare for, and mitigate the effects of, natural hazards such as bushfire smoke. Terms of Reference 9: (i) any related matters. 30 The recent fire season has reinforced the need to think of bushfire risk as a continuum from days to seasons to decades, and for seamless forecasting services which inform decisions across each of these time periods. To this end, the Bureau and the CSIRO through the Australian Community Climate and Earth- System Simulator (ACCESS) have developed the capability to deliver weather to decadal climate information in a format that can be used to inform future decision making across all of these periods. This uplift in technology is mirrored by the Bureau's operational uplift via the Public Services Transformation. As Australia’s national weather, climate and water information agency, the Bureau is committed to enabling a safe, prosperous, secure and healthy Australia by providing trusted, reliable and responsive weather, water, climate and ocean services for Australia.

30 https://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/DPFS/Meetings/ET- OWFPS_Montreal2016/documents/WMOGuidelinesonMulti-hazardImpact-basedForecastandWarningServices.pdf 13