Next Generation Forecast and Warning System

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The Bureau of Meteorology is tasked The technology chosen for the task was Territory to follow in the 2012 to 2014 by the Australian Government to the Graphical Forecast Editor (GFE), period. provide meteorological services initially developed in the United States by in support of Australia’s national the National Oceanic and Atmospheric What is NexGenFWS? needs. The Bureau’s weather Administration, and implemented The Next Generation Forecast and operationally in all US National Weather forecasts and warnings are some of Warning System is underpinned by a Service forecasting offices. set of forecast weather element grids the most widely utilised services of for time intervals out to 7 days ahead, Government in Australia. In 2009-10, In 2005, the Bureau commenced a initialised from Numerical Weather for example, 300,000 full weather demonstration pilot project and invested Prediction models. These are then edited $7.6 million to modify, develop, and forecasts were delivered to the and quality controlled by forecasters configure the GFE system to operate Australian public, with over 5 million using a graphical user interface. This under Australian conditions. The pilot warning and forecast products process is a completely new method of system was successfully launched for disseminated by email, facsimile and forecasting operations for the Bureau of Victoria on 28 October 2008. telephone systems. Meteorology. In 2009 the Australian Government Each weather element, for each time There is an ever-growing demand for more announced further funding of $30.5 period, is stored in the Australian Digital detailed and more accurate forecasts to million for the Next Generation Forecast Forecast Database at a resolution of be targeted to more communities and and Warning System Project, enabling 6 km. From these grids, maps are locations. Yet, despite enormous advances a national roll-out of GFE and other generated for display in the Bureau’s in the science of meteorology, most improvements to the tools available to new Forecast ExplorerTM web interface, forecasts are still text-based, requiring forecasters. substantial manual input by forecasters to with more traditional text forecasts also prepare each forecast. GFE was made operational in New South generated by specialised automated text Wales in September 2010 and is due to generation software. These text forecasts The Next Generation Forecast and be implemented in Tasmania and South can then be validated and edited by Warning System (NexGen FWS) has been Australia in 2011, with Queensland, Bureau forecasters if required. funded by the Australian Government Western Australia and the Northern to apply recent advances in science and technology to overcome this fundamental obstacle to service improvement.

To facilitate this service improvement, the concept of a ‘digital forecast database’ has been developed. The database contains highly detailed weather information on grids that cover the whole country at a 6 km spacing. It is a platform from which individual forecast products and services can be generated, including the traditional text format. Human forecasters now concentrate their efforts on the scientific input to this database, rather than on the manual creation of individual text products.

The GFE package enables the meteorologist to input local weather knowledge and experience into the weather forecast process and value-add to the computer model guidance available to them. Next Generation Next Generation Forecast Forecasting and Warning and Warning System System

Graphical weather forecasts provided by the Bureau are available out to 7 days ahead via the web–based Forecast ExplorerTM. This service enables the user to find, display and zoom into weather details for their area down to the 6 kilometre grid scale.

Benefits of the new system • Provides state-of-the-art forecast • Extended forecast outlook period, so and ingest into standard GIS-based services based on a high-resolution that forecasts cover more days; decision support systems and digital forecast database and semi- weather presentation software; and automated text forecast production; • Improved accuracy, detail, consistency and presentation of forecast and • Is an efficient and extensible platform • Ensures equity of service for city and warning information, including for for producing forecasts and warnings, rural communities, with more frequent high impact events such as heavy rain including industry-standard formats and detailed services for everyone, or bushfires; such as XML. not just those living in major cities;

• Provides graphical weather forecasts, • Provides digital datasets of TM with the ability to generate a forecast geospatially-referenced forecast To view the Forecast Explorer and for any location via a simple ‘point- information, available for users such the graphical forecast products, visit: and-click’ of a mouse; as emergency services to download www.bom.gov.au

As well as traditional text forecasts, GFE produces gridded forecasts of meteorological elements that can be used in a variety of ways, depending on the end user requirements.