1 From mountain to sea Peterhead / Buchan Overview September 2017 Craig Watson Council & Partnership Analyst Policy, Performance & Improvement Customer Communication & Improvement Business Services 2 Contents Heading Page No. Executive Summary 3 Aberdeenshire Profile 7 Buchan Overview 9 Economy 12 Poverty 23 Education & Skills 28 Health 38 Housing 41 Transport & Access 45 Crime 50 Peterhead Bay Overview 57 Peterhead Harbour Overview 58 Peterhead Links Overview 59 Peterhead Ugieside Overview 60 Auchnagatt Overview 61 Cruden Overview 62 Deer & Mormond Overview 63 Longside & Rattray Overview 64 Mintlaw Overview 65 New Pitsligo Overview 66 Ythanside Overview 67 Sources 68 3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Most economic indicators pertaining to the north east corner of Aberdeenshire align more closely with the Scottish average than with the rest of Aberdeenshire, although in many instances the differences are not particularly stark. Aberdeenshire, alongside Aberdeen City, forms one of the most prosperous regions in the country, despite the fall in the price of oil. Skills Development Scotland provides that the region’s economy will continue to grow through 2024, at the 3rd highest rate in the country. The jobs market in the Banff and Buchan region is prima facie less positive than is currently the case in Aberdeenshire. This is evidenced by the fact that, as at March 2017, the economic activity rate in Banff and Buchan is 5.5% lower than Aberdeenshire’s equivalent rate (77.4% versus 82.9%). Approximately 11,200 people aged 16-64 in the Banff and Buchan region are economically inactive (22.6% of the working age population). Of these, approximately 31.4% (or 3,500 people) are categorised as “long-term sick”, which is considerably higher than Aberdeenshire’s corresponding rate (23%). Indeed, Banff and Buchan’s rate is high enough to place it in the UK’s top quartile. This may have implications for health and social care services in the local area. Despite the 13% increase in the number of active enterprises in the Banff and Buchan region between 2010 and 2015, it is lower than the proportional increase experienced by the wider Aberdeen City & Shire area over the same period (21%). A number of reasons could account for the disparity, with local development planning and the commercialisation of certain zones elsewhere in the region the most likely explanation. How much the Energetica corridor boosted the enterprise count in the north east corner of Aberdeenshire is impossible to say but it is likely to have had at least some positive effect. The Business Improvement Districts (BIDs) initiative may also have a positive effect in the years ahead (Rediscover Peterhead). Looking forward, whilst conditions remain challenging for North Sea oil & gas producers, there are indications that companies believe they are approaching the bottom of the cycle, and that business confidence is starting to slowly increase. This may indicate that the sector will see an improved outlook in 2017, which should in turn benefit overall economic growth, both for the North East region and Scotland as a whole. However, unforeseen global events always have the potential to detrimentally affect the region’s economy. The consequences of Brexit may have a disproportionate effect on the wider Buchan area given the comparatively high number of overseas nationals (i.e. Eastern Europeans) living and working in the region. The Peterhead Harbour 4 accumulated the highest number of registrations in respect of overseas nationals in Aberdeenshire over the 2016/17 period. Given that the oil and gas industry is important to the Aberdeenshire economy, a statistically significant inverse relationship exists between the price of oil and the number of people claiming Job Seekers’ Allowance (JSA). That is to say, generally speaking, when the price of oil declines, the number of people claiming JSA in the subsequent period increases. A simple formula developed for this report suggests movements in the JSA count could be predicted over a 3-month period with a 66% degree of accuracy when certain conditions are met. There are areas in Aberdeenshire where child poverty is relatively high. These tend to be in the north of the Shire, specifically Banff & Buchan where approximately 18.9% of children live in poverty after housing costs. Poverty and deprivation is generally believed to impair life chances, the ultimate consequence being early mortality. It should be noted that latest data show Aberdeenshire as a whole had among the lowest rates of child poverty in the United Kingdom. The proportion of Clothing Grants within Buchan, one potential indicator of poverty, is highest in relation to Peterhead Academy (19.8% of Buchan’s total), followed by Buchanhaven School (12.2%). A wide range of structural, household and individual-level factors contribute towards causing poverty, including: employment status, costs of living, social security system, qualification levels and skills, and broader structures such as the labour and housing markets. These relationships can create a cycle of disadvantage where the impact of growing up in poverty plays a part in causing later poverty and limiting social mobility. Disruptive changes to business models will have a profound impact on the employment landscape over the coming years. It is estimated that 35% of all jobs are likely to be automated in the next 20 years; and one estimate suggests 65% of children entering primary school today will ultimately end up working in completely new job types that don’t yet exist. Performance for Peterhead in Literacy and Numeracy SCQF Level 4 and Level 5, 2016 is greater than the virtual comparator. These results highlight that Peterhead pupils are effectively competing with their counterparts nationally (virtual comparator data is based on identification of 10 pupils nationally who match Peterhead cluster pupils most closely based on stage; Gender; ASN and SIMD). The gap in attainment for Literacy and Numeracy SCQF Levels 4 and 5 between Peterhead and performance across Aberdeenshire has narrowed significantly between results in 2014, and those in 2016. The percentage of pupils on the school roll for whom English is an additional language is one of the highest in Aberdeenshire at Peterhead Central Primary School (55%) (second to Fraserburgh North Primary School where English is not the main language for 61.3% of pupils on the school roll). Five out of the ten 5 primary schools in Peterhead exceed the Aberdeenshire average for the percentage of pupils on the school roll for whom English is an additional language. A key function of social housing is to provide accommodation that is affordable to people on low incomes. Social housing may therefore be used as a tool to identify areas in which people on lower incomes are likely to reside. There appears to be a statistically significant relationship between areas with a high proportion of social housing and a number of other socio-economic issues. For example, where the proportion of socially rented properties is relatively high (in the context of Peterhead), so too are the following: o The proportion of the population claiming disability/incapacity benefits (as measured by the Comparative Illness Factor). o The rate of emergency hospital admissions per head of population. o The proportion of the population deemed to be income and employment deprived; o The proportion of overcrowded households. o The proportion of the population prescribed medication for depression, etc; o The proportion of young people not in education, employment or training (NEET). Conversely, pupil attainment and school attendance are more likely to be lower in such areas. There appears to be little or no relationship between socially rented properties and whether or not such properties have central heating. Although across Buchan the life expectancy of the majority of communities is above the Scottish average, parts of Peterhead have significantly lower life expectancy for both men and women and increased mortality rates. People over 65 years in Buchan are more likely to experience emergency hospital admissions than the general population and have higher rates of admissions for this age group than elsewhere in Aberdeenshire. However, the rate of emergency admissions for this age group is reducing yearly. Car driving is the dominant travel to work mode in the North East although levels are lower in Fraserburgh and Peterhead where car ownership levels are low relative to the more affluent and rural areas of Aberdeenshire. The number of Vehicle registrations in the AB42 and AB43 postcode areas has increased considerably over the period 2010-2016, albeit the last few Quarters have seen registrations stagnate and the proportion of vehicles with a SORN increase (Peterhead falls within the AB42 postcode area). The fact that the general area has experienced an increase in vehicle numbers could suggest a degree of collective optimism about future prospects, which may in turn translate into a willingness on the part of some to seek employment. Vehicle ownership is both an important measure of overall affluence and an indicator of likely public transport demand in an area. Stagnating vehicle registrations and 6 a rise in the proportion of vehicles no longer on the road may therefore portend or indicate a degree of financial hardship. The crime data reinforces the idea that Aberdeenshire is among the least crime- affected areas in the country, with a crime rate some 44% below that of Scotland on a population basis. SIMD data tends to bolster official crime data – as do local surveys, with 98% of Aberdeenshire residents stating they feel Aberdeenshire is a safe place to live. However, there are areas that tend to experience elevated levels of crime and disorder, most notably Peterhead and Fraserburgh. Indeed, Banff & Buchan and Buchan have together accounted for over half the total number of recorded crime in Aberdeenshire since 2010/11. Each Intermediate Zone falling wholly or partly within Buchan is considered individually towards the end of the document (dashboard format).