The Future of Mobility: Automated Driving, Connected Cars, and Shared Mobility National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC) – October 9, 2018 Carla Bailo President & CEO, Center for Automotive Research THE CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH (CAR) Automotive industry contract research and service organization (non-profit) with more than 30 years experience forecasting industry trends, advising on public policy, and sponsoring multi-stakeholder communication forums.

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CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH 2 Mobility: The movement of people and goods from place to place, job to job, or one social level to another (across bridges – physical or assumed).

CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH 3 Smart Mobility: The movement of people and goods with…

TRIPLE ZERO

0 Accidents & Fatalities

0 Carbon Footprint 0 Stress

CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH 4 Driver Assistance Available Today

TESLA AUTOPILOT

Source: Texas Instruments V2X (Cadillac 2018 models)

CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH 5 Deployment Timeline Automated Driving Systems (SAE J3016 Levels 3-5)

Audi L4 – “Highway Pilot” – Commercial Deployment Aptiv (with Lyft) Bosch BMW (with Mobileye) L4 – Taxi – Pilot L3 – Platform – Commercial L4/5 – “Highly/Fully – Deployment drive.ai Commercial Deployment Aptiv L4 - Taxi – Pilot comma.ai L4 – Taxi – Pilot Continental (with Nvidia) L4 – Commercial Deployment Ford (with Argo.AI) Aptiv (with Mobileye) L2-5 – Platform – Commercial Easymile L4 – Taxi, Delivery Vehicle – L4/5 – “Turnkey Solution” Honda Deployment L4 – Fixed Route Shuttle – Pilot Pilot L3? – “Automated HW Driving” – Daimler (with Bosch and Daimler (with Bosch and GM (with Cruise) Commercial Deployment May Mobility Nvidia) Nvidia) L4 – Taxi – Pilot L4 – Fixed Route Shuttle – L4 – Taxi – Pilot Lyft (with GM) L4 – Taxi – Commercial Voyage Pilot GM (with Cruise) L4 –Taxi – Commercial Deployment L4 – Taxi – Pilot Deployment Nuro L4 – Taxi – “Commercial Ford (with Argo.AI) Waymo L4 – Delivery Vehicle – Pilot Launch at Scale” Nissan L4 – Taxi, Delivery Vehicle – L4 – Taxi – Pilot L4 – “Autonomous Drive” – nuTonomy (with Lyft) Tesla Production Ready Commercial Deployment L4 – Taxi – Pilot L4 – Personal Vehicle/Taxi – Uber 2getthere – 2006 – L4 – Shuttle on Commercial Deployment 2getthere L4 – Taxi – Commercial Dedicated Lane – Commercial L4 – Fixed Route Shuttle – Deployment Deployment Commercial Deployment Volvo Navya – 2016 – L4 – Shuttle on L4 – Commercial Deployment Dedicated Lane – Pilot Uber – 2016 – L4 –Taxi – Pilot (suspended) Nissan – 2022 – L4/5 – Taxi – Commercial Deployment Honda – 2025 – L4 – Commercial Deployment Toyota – L4 – “Chauffeur” – Commercial Deployment Volkswagen – L4 – Commercial Deployment

CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH 6 And Coming Soon (Very Soon in Some Cases)! Prototypes, Test Vehicles, Early Deployment Vehicles

Robo-Taxis Low-Speed Shuttles Urban Delivery Long-Haul Freight

Waymo Navya Arma Nuro

Daimler

Drive.ai May Mobility Ford

CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH 7 Automated Vehicle Deployment Models Pilots and Early Deployments

Robo-taxi Low-speed Urban Long-haul shuttle delivery freight

. Waymo . Navya . Ford . Daimler Phoenix area, AZ (since Apr 2017) Sion, CH (Jun 2016) Ann Arbor, MI (Sept Nevada (since May . Aptiv Lyon, FR (since Sept 2016) 2017) – with 2015) Las Vegas, NV (since May 2018) – with Lyft Paris (since Jul 2017) Domino’s Oregon (since Sept Singapore, SG (since 2017) Las Vegas, NV (since Nov 2017) Miami, FL (Feb – Apr 2017) Neuhausen Rheinfall, CH (since Mar 2018) 2018) – with . Drive.ai . Ann Arbor, MI (since Jun 2018) Domino’s Uber Frisco, TX (Jul – Dec 2018) Miami, FR (since Arizona (Nov 2017 – . EasyMile . nuTonomy Mar 2018) – with Mar 2018) Arlington, TX (since Aug 2017) Boston, MA (since Dec 2017) – with Lyft Postmates . Waymo Singapore, SG (since 2018) Berlin, DE (since Dec 2017) San Ramon, CA (since Apr 2018) . Nuro Atlanta, GA (since . Uber Forus, NW (since Jun 2018) Scottsdale, AZ (since May 2018) Pittsburgh, PA (Sept 2016 – March 2018) Aug 2018) – with Tempe area, AZ (Feb 2017 – Mar 2018) . 2getthere Capelle aan den IJssel, NL (since Dec 2006) Kroger . GM/Cruise Masdar City, UAE (since Nov 2010) San Francisco, CA (since Sept 2017) . . Voyage May Mobility San Jose, CA (since Sept 2017) Detroit, MI (since Jul 2018)

Note: For robo-taxis, low-speed shuttles, and urban delivery, only pilots and early deployments open to the general public or to a select user group are included. CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH 8 Market Share: Segment Breakdown U.S. Light Vehicle Sales 2018 YTD Through September

CUV 37.4%

Pickup 16.3%

Small Car 13.1%

Middle Car 9.8%

SUV 8.4%

Van 5.5%

Luxury Car 4.7%

Electrified 3.6%

Large Car 1.3%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

Note: Electrified Segment consists of BEVs, HEVs and PHEVs; all other segments are sales exclusive of Hybrid models Source: Ward’s Automotive Reports and CAR Research CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH 9 Segment Breakdown: U.S. Light Vehicles Sales Percent Change 2018 YTD vs. 2017 YTD Through September

Total 0.3%

CUV 12.3%

Electrified 11.9%

SUV 5.5%

Pickup 4.3%

Van -1.8%

Large Car -13.4%

Luxury Car -13.4%

Small Car -15.4%

Middle Car -15.9%

-20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%

Note: Electrified Segment consists of BEVs, HEVs and PHEVs; all other segments are sales exclusive of Hybrid models Source: Ward’s Automotive Reports and CAR Research CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH 10 Automated Vehicle Interior Concepts

GM concept: no steering wheel or pedals Enhanced accessibility

Office on wheels Mercedes concept: rear-facing seats Adient concept: rotating seats CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH 11 Convergence of Automated, Connected, Electrified, and Shared Vehicle Technology Impact on Vehicle Design • Largest structural impact will come due to change of powertrain • Exterior design might not be an important differentiator for consumers anymore (especially for shared, automated) • Integration of sensors will be a priority for designers • New challenges and innovations (e.g., biometrics, flexible seating, scratch and bacteria resistance) will emerge • The end of driver-centric design?

CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH 12 Driving Automation Impact of driving automation: Impact on Insurance • Fewer claims and lower premiums (?) • Significant shifts in coverage only at L4-L5 • Less focus on: driver’s motor vehicle record and characteristics • More focus on: vehicle physical attributes, where and how the vehicle is used

Paradigm shifts: • Apportioning blame to driver and manufacturer/suppliers • Greater reliance on product liability

CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH 13 Driving Automation • Assigning liability for SAE L1 to L3 Levels and Challenges in Apportioning Liability • Lengthy litigation between manufacturers, suppliers, and vehicle operator/driver

• Shifting from driver-focused insurance laws to vehicle-focused laws

CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH 14 Guidelines for the • Strengthen technical underwriting Insurance Industry capabilities and AV knowledge

• Prepare for incremental changes to cost structures

• Prepare to navigate with insufficient or incomplete data, and exploit emerging sources

• Explore new categories of risks

CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH 15 Connected Vehicle Applications

• V2V & V2I Communication • Autonomous Navigation & Collision Avoidance • Location Based Services • Smart & Resilient

CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH Infrastructure 16 Courtesy of Prof. Dorota Brzezinska, OSU Internet of Things and Transportation

• Multimodal Integrated Payment & Trip Planning • Shared pick-up and drop-off vehicles • Seamless integration of travel data • Better Modeling

CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH 17 Internet of Things Applications in Cities

• New and Improved Infrastructure • Decreased Carbon Footprint • Ensured Safety by Location • Infrastructure Monitoring

CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH 18 Courtesy of Prof. Dorota Brzezinska, OSU Digital Twin Technology for Smart Cities

Digital twin is the best way for cities to manage growth and becoming “smart”… • Digitization of physical assets and systems - transportation, communications, infrastructure etc. • While initial investment may seem high, over time robustness will increase and costs will come down • Enables modeling of physical assets, systems and potential strategies • To optimize operations, processes and solutions

Image Source: http://www.atdi.com/wp- content/uploads/2012/05/coverage_lte_ics_designer2.jpg CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH 19 Leveraging Ubiquitous Impact of vehicle connectivity: Connectivity for the • Abundance of real-world data Insurance Sector • More predictability, less fraud

Paradigm shifts: • New risks: cyber threats at the individual, vehicle, fleet, infrastructure level

Guidelines: • Establish advanced analytics capabilities • Plan for product and business-line shifts

CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH 20 Shared Mobility Services

Shared mobility services are transportation solutions enabled by emerging technologies and wireless connectivity that allow for more convenient, efficient, and flexible travel.

RIDESOURCING CARSHARING MICROTRANSIT

RIDESHARING BIKESHARING MOBILITY-AS-A- SERVICE

CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH 21 Common Payment Systems

Enhanced Human Services (EHS)

M u l t i - M o d a l Integrated I n c l u s i v e Trip Planning Common Payment M o b i l i t y Application S y s t e m

CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH 22 Shared Mobility Services Opportunities for the Auto Industry

The rise of shared mobility services is part of a mobility evolution that brings many opportunities for the auto industry.

New New New New vehicle New ownership business services concepts functionalities models partnerships

CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH 23 Major Automakers’ Partnerships Related to Mobility, Connectivity, and Driving Automation

TRI-AD Acquisition Investment Subsidiary / Brand CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH Partnership 24 Ridesourcing Adoption

Adoption and Utilization of Ridesourcing in Major U.S. Metropolitan Areas

Source: Clewlow, Regina R. and Gouri Shankar Mishra (2017). Disruptive Transportation: The Adoption, Utilization, and Impacts of Ride-Hailing in the United States, UC Davis CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH 25 Growth of North American Carsharing Programs

2,500,000 30,000

2,000,000 25,000 20,000 1,500,000 15,000 1,000,000 10,000

500,000 5,000

- - 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 (Jan) Members North America 211,170 318,898 377,597 516,100 639,428 908,584 1,146,374 1,625,652 1,526,532 1,837,854 1,927,228 Vehicles North America 6,492 7,507 9,768 10,405 10,381 15,795 20,784 24,210 25,224 26,691 24,629 Yearly data represents July numbers, unless otherwise specified. Totals include one-way and round-trip carsharing and exclude P2P programs. Proxies were used for five of the 32 round-trip operators. Source: Shaheen, S., Cohen, A., Jaffee, M (2018). Innovative Mobility: Carsharing Outlook, Transportation Sustainability Research Center, University of California, Berkeley. CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH 26 Shared Mobility Services in North America

600+ cities with ridesourcing

20+ cities with pooled rides

10+ cities with microtransit

400+ cities with carshare (round trip, free floating, P2P)

400+ cities with bikeshare (stationed, dockless) & scooters

Source: Shared Use Mobility Center

CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH 27 Shared Mobility Services in North America

Ridesourcing Pooled rides and ridesharing Microtransit

Bikesharing (stationed) Bikesharing (dockless) Scooter sharing

Carsharing (round trip) Carsharing (free floating) Carsharing (P2P)

CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH 28 Source: Shared Use Mobility Center, CAR research Insuring Manually Paradigm shifts: Operated Mobility • Vandalism and theft will become more Services prevalent risk categories Challenges: • Adoption of mobility services will vary by geography and demographics • How to insure a vehicle used for personal use and ridesourcing and carsharing? • Will we need ‘safety profiles’ for every mobility user and operator? Guidelines: • Retrain claims adjusters to interpret intricacies of shared mobility services CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH 29 Insuring Automated Paradigm shifts: Mobility Services • From driver-centric insurance to mobility operator-centric Challenges: • Threat from non-traditional competitors (manufacturers, mapping companies, startups) Guidelines: • Develop new insurance products (e.g., coverage against sensor or communication failure, recall risk, risks related to infrastructure)

CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH 30 THANK YOU