FARMINGUK OCTOBER 2012
In this edition:
BACK ISSUES • Europes pork and bacon stocks declining scan the code • Calls to scrap EU biofuel plans • Hundreds march to Brussles • Plus much, much more!
NEWS MARKET REPORTS PROPERTIES CLASSIFIEDS JOBS RURAL ACCOMMODATION
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L K R A R S A N P S 3 CONTENTS Very high (-.50 to -0.65)
High (-.45 to -0.50)
Medium (-.40 to -0.45)
Mode rate (-.25 to -0.40)
Low (-.25 to -0.35)
No in formation av ailable RABOBANK REPORT: AGFLATION TO HIT ANIMAL PROTEIN AND DAIRY INDUSTRIES
Skyrocketing agricultural and wheat. These commodities are so the current period of agflation commodity prices are causing the currently 30% cheaper than their should not lead to the unrest world to re-enter a period of 2008 peaks. Nonetheless, price rises witnessed in response to the "agflation", with food prices are likely to stall the long-term trend shortage in 2008. forecast to reach record highs in towards higher protein diets in Asia, 2013 and to continue to rise well the Middle East and North Africa. In Rabobank estimates that the Food into Q3 2013. Unlike the staple developed economies - especially and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) grain shortage of 2008, this year's the US and Europe - where meat Food Price Index will rise by 15% by scarcity will affect feed intensive and corn price elasticity is low, the the end of June 2013. In order for crops with serious repercussions for knock-on effect of high grain prices demand rationing to take place, in the animal protein and dairy will be felt for some time to come.” turn encouraging a supply response, industries. prices will need to stay high. As such Due to the long production cycles of Rabobank expects prices - Luke Chandler Global Head of Agri the animal protein and dairy particularly for grains and oilseeds - Commodity Markets Research at industries, the affects of grains to remain at elevated levels for at Rabobank commented, “The impact shortages will be more sustained as least the next 12 months. on the poorest consumers should be herds (especially cattle) take longer reduced this time around, as to rebuild, maintaining upward Government intervention purchasers are able to switch pressure on food prices. However, Whilst the impact of higher food consumption from animal protein food makes up a smaller proportion prices should be reduced by back towards staple grains like rice of budget spend in such countries, favorable macroeconomic 3ECTION The price of food will increase further | | Rabobank Re-entering Agflation
Our analysis indicates that world stocks of in five of the thirteen marketing years since Figure 2.1: Wheat, corn and soybean prices are experiencing soybeans in the 2012/13 season will fall to the turn of the millennium (see Figure 1.4). their third major price rally in five years—setting records for just 73 days of use (-6 YOY) while corn stocks soybeans and corn In fact, world wheat stocks are expected to 18 will fall to just 51 days of use (-4 YOY). These end this season with 90 days of use (-14 YOY) 16 numbers compare to 83 days and 62 days, and should remain considerably higher than 14 respectively, for the 2007/08 season. As this
the 76 days of use reached in 2007/08 l 12
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season’s decline in stocks is concentrated in h s 10
(see Figure 1.5). Rice stocks are also significantly u b
corn and soybeans (used largely in animal / more plentiful this time around with 81 days D 8 S
feeds), stock tightness can be alleviated U of use (-2 YOY) compared with just 69 days in 6 through reduced meat and dairy consumption. 2007/08. Export bans in major rice exporting 4 These effects will be masked in the shorter countries, including India and Vietnam, were 2 term as higher slaughter rates temporarily a key component of the 2008 record rally in 0 1 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 2
increase meat supply. The longer term effect 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 rice prices, with August 2012 rice prices of 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Re-entering Agflation 2 will be reduced animal herd sizes, which will 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 USD 15.6 per cwt still 34 percent below the drive down production and increase prices. 2008 peak. While there have been some Unlike in 2007/08, higher prices will linger this CBOT Wheat CBOT Corn CBOT Soybeans concerns with the sub-par Indian monsoon, time, even if increased production alleviates at this stage production has not been as Source: Bloomberg, Rabobank, 2012 pressure on underlying grain fundamentals World Food Prices to Hit Record High adversely affected as in 2008. Additionally, as herds take time to rebuild. non-grain and oilseed prices have remained The crisis of 2008 was many years in the more subdued, with sugar—a large food- decline YOY for the first time in 17 years. However, we still expect prices to remain making, with stocks-to-use declining across price component—falling 16 percent YTD. However, total global grain use is likely to above long-run average levels, unless there the grains and oilseeds complex beginning However, with the reference #11 sugar price exceed production for the seventh time is a major demand shock in the market, such in 2000 as emerging market and biofuel trading at USc 20 per lb, prices remain well in 14 years. as a major policy change (e.g. biofuels) or a demand accelerated. The 2008 crisis was above the 2008 average price of USc 12 per lb, global recession. a signal that there was not enough growth with prices declining from their peak of USc !GRICULTUR ALCOMMODITYPRICES in production or investment in agriculture 35 per lb in February 2010. The scale of the production setbacks this TOREMAINHIGHF ORSOMETIMEY ET to meet the accelerated growth rate in season will underscore the need for an almost Meat consumption will be significantly more Record high agricultural commodity consumption. The subsequent price response unprecedented amount of demand rationing. affected than the consumption of grain prices will be required over the next 12 to incentivised the largest grain and oilseed We believe that this will be a much more (e.g. bread) as demand rationing will be 24 months in order to cut demand and harvest ever in 2008/09. However, the record difficult task than current livestock and focused in the feed grains complex. One encourage a production response from crop was not sufficient to rebuild depleted ethanol production margins would suggest. direct consequence of this, due to the long the world’s farmers next season. We expect inventory levels as consumption growth Entrenched demand, feedback effects from animal protein and dairy production cycles, agricultural commodity prices will peak kept pace with production increases. animal protein price increases, hedged will be that price effects will linger longer as somewhere between Q4 2012 and Q1 2013 Ultimately, prices dropped and output production margins within the hog and herds (especially cattle) take longer to rebuild. as new crop prospects in Brazil and Argentina faltered in 2010/11, prompting another cattle sectors and the US ethanol mandate As herds are liquidated this will increase are showing signs of trend line yields being agricultural commodity rally. The coming (Renewable Fuel Standard-RFS) will likely supplies in the short term and depress prices. achieved for corn and soybeans. Beyond this decline in world grain and oilseed stocks mean that elevated agricultural commodity In the medium/longer term this will maintain period, we anticipate an easing in prices if reinforces the longer term trend of prices will be required for the entire upward pressure on food prices as meat seasonal conditions normalise and world consumption surpassing production, marketing year and beyond in order to and dairy supplies contract. inventory levels can recover (see Figure 2.2). with production only outpacing supply sufficiently limit both US and global use.
Figure 1.4: Combined world stocks-to-use for wheat, rice, corn Figure 1.5: Combined world stocks-to-use for wheat, rice, corn &IGUR E 2ABOBANKQUAR TERLYAVERAGEGR AINANDOILSEEDPR ICEFORECASTS and soybeans began to decline in 1999/2000 and soybeans improved following 2007/08, but are forecast to decline for the third consecutive year in 2012/13 1m 1m 1m 1m 1m 1m 1m 1m 1m 1m 1m 1m 1m 1m 1m 34 2,400 120 32 2,300 110 7HEAT#"/4 USc/bu 522 496 467 653 707 786 745 690 615 643 642 860 880 900 920 ) s
k 30 2,200 c 100 o t s s 7HEAT-ATIF EUR/tonne 129 125 132 200 225 252 233 199 186 210 212 255 261 267 273
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r 26 80
2,000 n #ORN USc/bu 386 370 355 422 562 670 731 696 620 641 617 790 800 810 820 e e o i s p l l u i
24 1,900 f 70 m o
s 3OYBEANS USc/bu 1,002 955 957 1,035 1,245 1,379 1,361 1,356 1,175 1,272 1,426 1,725 1,685 1,600 1,450 22 y 60 1,800 a d 50 20 1,700 3OYOIL USc/lb 38.1 38.6 38.1 40.2 51.0 57.0 57.2 55.7 50.6 52.9 52.2 53.0 52.5 52.0 51.0 18 1,600 40 f f 1 1 0 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 2 8 9 0 1 2 3 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 / / 3OYMEAL USD/ton 306 278 281 305 338 367 353 352 302 339 413 510 490 420 375 1 / / / / / / / / / / / 1 / / / / / / / 0 0 9 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 7 8 9 0 1 2 2 0 1 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0ALMOIL MYR/tonne 2,309 2,577 2,527 2,650 3,293 3,675 3,362 3,097 3,016 3,219 3,245 2,850 2,900 3,000 3,100 Stocks/use Consumption (RHS) Production (RHS) Corn Soybeans Rice Wheat Combined
Source: FAO, Rabobank, 2012 Source: USDA, Rabobank, 2012 Source: Bloomberg, Rabobank, 2012
3ECTION Global agricultural prices spike, again | | Rabobank Re-entering Agflation
prices falling 47 percent over the same evident in reduced ethanol production in even with the near doubling of corn prices in 6ALUE ADDEDPR OCESSING period. However, the next largest drawdown the US and then, as hedge coverage declines recent months, a USD 1.50 per litre soft drink, The impact of the rising agricultural in net long positions, -73 percent in 2011, into Q1 2013, in the North American animal sweetened with high fructose corn syrup, commodity prices in the value-added &OOD!GRIBUSINESS2ESEARCHAND!DVISORY&!2 'LOBAL&INANCIAL-ARKETS saw prices fall 26 percent, suggesting that protein sector. Ethanol production will remain has less than a nickel’s worth of corn in it. processing sector varies depending on a !GRI#OMMODITY-ARKETS2ESEARCH!#-2 &INANCIAL-ARKETS2ESEARCH fundamentals following this period required a feature in the US, although it will decrease Coca Cola and PepsiCo took pricing up by number of factors, including the percentage still higher prices than speculators were for the first time in 17 years in 2012/13. There 3.5 percent to 5.0 percent in 2011, but have share of commodities within cost of goods Luke Chandler, Jan Lambregts, willing to bet on. If fundamental data are indicators that this decrease may begin been less aggressive in 2012 based on lower sold, hedging strategies and the specifics of Global Head Head of Financial Markets Research continues to deteriorate, and demand soon, with current ethanol production margins agricultural commodity costs. Global soft supply agreements with customers, to name +44 20 7664 9514 +44 20 7664 9669 for agricultural commodities proves as near the worst in the industry’s history. drinks companies have seen an easing of a few. These factors will decide the extent [email protected] [email protected] entrenched as we forecast, speculative net packaging and ingredient costs over the past of the impact of recent price increases on World feed consumption demand is nearly longs in the agricultural complex should 18 months as PET resin, aluminium, sugar, food processors, their margins and profits. Elwin de Groot, impervious to price shocks in the short term, Keith Flury, continue to rise, surpassing record levels set juices and coffee prices have all moved lower Macro Strategist with global demand rising in 36 out of the In the absence of advertising and Senior Commodity Analyst in September 2010. Further supporting the in comparison to 2011. +31 30 216 9012 last 47 years and only declining 5 percent YOY promotional spending, the relative impact of +44 20 7664 9676 fundamental, rather than speculative, backing [email protected] on two occasions in the 1974/75 and 1988/89 Beer rising commodity prices on the profit and loss [email protected] of the 2012 rally is that much of the gain in marketing years (see Figures 2.8 and 2.9). Within the beverages category, the negative accounts of private label and B-brand players prices pre-dated the speculative increases. Adrian Foster, This remains the most difficult portion of impact of higher grain and oilseed prices has across the various VAP subsectors will be This is in sharp contrast to 2008. Erin FitzPatrick, Head of Financial Markets Research, Asia Pacific the balance sheet to forecast as strategic been the greatest on brewers, especially in higher than for A-brands. With agricultural Commodity Analyst +852 2103 2612 geopolitical decisions, including stockpiling, drought-stricken regions such as Ukraine and commodity input costs accounting for $EMANDR ATIONINGT OHITBIOFUELSAND +44 20 7664 9540 [email protected] tariffs and export bans, will determine how Russia. Prices for malting barley, an essential roughly 35 percent of a private label player’s ANIMALPR OTEININDUSTR IES [email protected] much strain is placed on major grain and ingredient in the brewing process, have revenues on average, and an average Demand rationing for grains and oilseeds use #ORPORATESALESCONTACTS oilseed exporting nations—the largest of jumped as farmers shifted away from planting operating margin of 5 percent, it is clear is expected to be strongest in the US ethanol Nick Higgins, ASIA Brandon Ma which is still the US. Rabobank expects barley to corn, which has been bringing that the current spike in prices will seriously industry, where corn use is expected to +852 2103 2688 combined global soybean and corn trade of higher prices. Larger global brewers are hurt the less differentiated processors. Even Commodity Analyst fall 11 percent YOY in the 2012/13 season. [email protected] 191 million tonnes in 2012/13, up 4 percent able to secure longer term contracts and A-brands are likely to experience initial +44 20 7664 9543 Although US ethanol and short-term animal YOY, spurred by Chinese soybean demand. use hedging to protect themselves against difficulty passing on higher prices to [email protected] protein production are both relatively AUSTRALIA Terry Allom This will place further pressure on the US recent price increases. Beer makers have customers, depending on the duration of inelastic, the scale of the US drought will +61 2 8115 3103 internal stock situation and, ultimately, prices seen malt barley price increases ranging their supply agreements, as they are likely require significant demand destruction across [email protected] for consumers. This will especially be the from 40 percent to 80 percent, and hops to have been caught off guard by the recent #ONTRIBUTING&!23TRATEGISTS both industries, in order to contain shortages case if government stockpiling increases suppliers announced increases ranging price moves as well. Especially during these in feed grains. Importantly, we see declines David C. Nelson, EUROPE Arjan Veerhoek and low demand elasticity means larger price from 20 percent to 100 percent, depending times of economic headwind, retailers and in ethanol use happening within the bounds Global Strategist +31 30 216 9040 increases are needed in the US as a result. on the variety of hops. Over the past decade, their customers will be very reluctant to of the ethanol mandate, dictated by the Grains & Oilseeds; Animal Protein [email protected] hops price increases have been driven accept price increases. needs of gasoline refineries, with further Diminished US soybean production and +1 312 408 8210 by a global shortage and poor output declines possible (but not likely) whether or subsequent evidence of inelastic Chinese Food processors have several options to EUROPE David Kane in Europe. The global acreage dedicated [email protected] not the mandate is waived in the near term. demand suggest higher prices are needed respond to rising input costs in the near to +44 20 7664 9744 for hops growing has fallen by half in the Global corn and soymeal use for animal feed to ration demand in 2013. Prices for soymeal medium term, including trying to pass on [email protected] past 12 years and craft brewers are finding Cyrille Filott, is forecast to decline over 6 percent from and soy oil have also risen, maintaining crush input price increases to customers, internal scarcity of hops supply to be their Head of FAR Europe initial 2012/13 USDA estimates in May, margins, and driving import demand for cost savings, smaller package sizes and BRAZIL Sergio Nakashima greatest concern. +31 30 71 23814 although it is still set to rise 1 percent from China. Soymeal is seen as the limiting factor portions while keeping prices unchanged, +55 11 5503 7150 [email protected] 2011/12 levels. Rabobank expects that in the oilseeds complex, demonstrated by its ingredient substitution, and further pruning [email protected] demand rationing will initially be most 69 percent outperformance of soy oil YTD. Tim Hunt, US & CANADA Sarah Lee Global Strategist, Dairy +1 212 916 7875 +1 212 916 7833 [email protected] Figure 2.6: Net long positions by managed money in the Figure 2.7: Speculative net longs have been relatively more Figure 2.13: Beverage prices increased in July but remain [email protected] agricultural complex have increased to levels seen in 2007/08 concentrated in the grain and oilseed complex during the considerably below the highs reached in early 2011 US & CANADA Neil Williamson but are below 2010/11 highs current agricultural commodity rally +1 212 808 6966 15 Ross Colbert, 1,400 600 1,400 240 [email protected] Global Strategist, Beverages 1,200 550 1,200 10 220
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s a p u 600 s o 350 u 400 Dirk Jan Kennes, h o -5
t 160 h 400 t 300 200 Global Strategist Farm Inputs CHILE Gaston Iroume 140 -10 200 250 0 +31 30 71 23818 +56 2 4498536 [email protected] 0 200 -200 120 -15 [email protected]
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1 - - 9 8 7 6 2 0 ------1 1 1 0 0 0 0 r l l r t 1
p c y v 0 0 0 0 1 1 n n g b p u u c a 0 e a e n n n n n n n o a 0 0 0 0 0 0 e u u J J A J S 2 J O F u u u u u u u 2 2 2 2 2 2 M D N A M J J J J J J J
Managed money net length S&P GS agri commodity Index (RHS) Grains and oilseeds Soft commodities Livestock Beverage price index Price change (RHS) WWWRABOTRANSACTCOM
Source: CFTC, Liffe, Rabobank, 2012 Source: CFTC, Liffe, Rabobank, 2012 Source: IMF, Rabobank, 2012
fundamentals (low growth, lower oil circle, with governments committing severe drought in the US (its worst prices, weak consumer confidence to domestic stockpiling and other since 1936) and similar water and a depreciated US dollar); interventionist measures earlier shortages in Russia and South interventionist government policies than usual - recognising the risk of America. This rally in grain and could exacerbate the issue. being left out as exportable stocks oilseed prices will have a significant Stockpiling and export bans are a decline further. knock-on effect on other F&A supply distinct possibility in 2012/13 as chains especially the animal protein governments seek to protect On top of that, Rabobank warns that industry, resulting in rising meat domestic consumers from increasing global food stocks have not been prices. food prices. Increased government replenished since 2008, leaving the intervention will likely encourage market without any buffer to further increases in world adverse growing conditions. Efforts commodity and food prices. by governments to rebuild stocks Rabobank expects that localised are likely to add to food prices and efforts to increase stockpiles will take supplies off the market at a prove counterproductive at the time when they are most needed. global level, with those countries S least able to pay higher prices likely Background to see greater moves in domestic Current price inflation is the result W food price inflation. This is a vicious of weather driven events in large E
exporting nations, principally a N
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A world shortage of pork and bacon "It usually takes at least six months "Some have got only a few weeks next year is now unavoidable, says for higher production costs to filter left before they run out of credit at Britain’s National Pig Association. through to shop prices - but pig the bank and have to sell up, and farmers simply haven't got that this is happening all over Europe." But the association said long," said National Pig Association supermarkets can protect chairman Richard Longthorp, who New data shows the European consumers from shortages if farms outdoor pigs in Yorkshire. Union pig herd is declining at a "they pay Britain's loss-making pig significant rate, and this is a trend farmers a fair price, to help them that is being mirrored around the remain in production". world. Pig farmers have been It usually takes at plunged into loss by high pig-feed Around the world, pig farmers are “ costs, caused by the global failure of selling their herds because they can least six months for maize and soya harvests. no longer afford to feed their pigs. higher production In the United States the government All main European pig-producing introduced a pork-buying costs to filter countries report shrinking sow herds. programme in a bid to keep its pig through... but pig Falling numbers in the 12 months to farmers in business. And the Chinese farmers simply June 2012 have been reported this government is putting pork into cold week by Denmark (-2.3), Germany (- storage, as a buffer against haven’t got that 1.3), Ireland (-6.6), Spain (-2.8), France shortages and high prices next year. long. Some have (-3.2), Italy (-13), Hungary (-5), the Netherlands (-3.6), Austria (-2.8), Pig industry leaders from across the only got a few weeks Poland (-9.6) and Sweden (-7.2). European Union met in London left before they run earlier in the month to explore ways out of credit at the “British supermarkets know they to ensure pork remains the world’s
have to raise the price they pay K
most affordable red meat. They bank and have to Britain’s pig farmers or risk empty C reported that pig herds are being spaces on their shelves next year,” sell up, and this is O sold because prices are not rising
said NPA chairman Richard T happening all over fast enough in supermarkets to Longthorp. “But competition is so S cover the cost of record-high pig- Europe. fierce in the high street at present, E feed costs. each is waiting for the other to V Richard Longthorpe: National I
move first.” L Pig Association chairman “ OCTOBER 2012 FARMINGUK 7
In its Save Our Bacon campaign, NPA is asking shoppers to make a point of selecting pork and bacon with the British independent Red Tractor logo, as an increase in demand for British product now may help persuade supermarkets to act before it is too late.
Sainsbury’s has increased the price it pays to a few of its pig farmer suppliers and NPA has welcomed this gesture. But it says the major supermarkets need to do much more, if they want to protect their customers from shortages and high prices next year.
British Pig Executive Mick Sloyan warned a private meeting of British and mainland Europe retailers at a Brussels summit yesterday that a fall of only 2 percent in slaughterings next year will cause prices to rise by 10 percent. Dairy coalition calls for
NPA believes slaughterings could cuts cash to be given fall by as much as 10 percent in the second half of next year, which back indicates a doubling of the price of European pork and pork products. “If supermarkets act now, they can The dairy coalition is calling for the cuts to be paid back to farmers, the prevent this happening,” says NPA. urgent reinstatement of the money coalition of dairy organisations taken away from dairy farmers including the NFU, NFU Cymru, NFU during the price cuts in May and Scotland, FFA, the TFA, the WFU and June and for evidence that those the RABDF, will also be scrutinising retailers who committed to the all market movements to ensure delivery of more sustainable pricing that market increases are reflected models will be met. in farm prices.
Today’s call comes just two weeks Speaking on behalf of the coalition after SOS Dairy went to the of dairy NFU President Peter Kendall Livestock 2012 event in Birmingham said: “It’s becoming increasingly to keep up the pressure that has apparent that some customers of seen the campaign successfully fight dairy farmers are yet to be for dairy farmers. convinced of market dynamics.
Results have seen the planned “Rest assured, we will be writing to August milk price cuts rescinded, the engage with those key players in the launch of the first voluntary code of coming weeks to ensure that any practice which will help to redress market increases are reflected, as the balance of power between milk they should be, in the price paid to processors and farmers and the farmers.” start of a dairy database to help likeminded dairy farmers explore “The coalition will continue to meet the formation of producer regularly with key processors and organisations under the forthcoming the food service industry to ensure S EU dairy package. they understand the cost pressures W
on farmers.” E As well as calling for historical price N
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Calls to scrap the biofuels element hunger" said ActionAid's policy and environmentally damaging. of the Renewable Energy Directive adviser Tim Rice. have been described as “Biofuels represent the only realistic "staggeringly short shighted" by the "Crop based biofuels should have no means of reducing Europe’s reliance National Farmers' Union today. part in EU or UK renewable energy on imported fuel and help address policy.” GHG emissions in the transport Policy makers for the European sector. The EC currently estimates Union had planned to limit biofuels NFU chief combinable crops adviser that transport is responsible for from food crops in response to rising Guy Gagen said: “Incredibly, Oxfam about a quarter of the EU’s GHG prices of food. and some green and development emissions, yet abandoning biofuel NGOs continue their involvement as production would ensure that "Many of the organisations calling interesting bedfellows with OPEC, oil dependence on fossil oils continues for an end to biofuels fail to take and food multinationals and long into the next decade. into account the huge impact numerous climate change deniers by European transportation has on joining their chorus for an end to “The biofuel industry has been climate change" the NFU said. biofuel production. helping address the needs of both food and fuel through long term "The European Commission must “We have identified unexplained market stability, flexibility of show strong leadership, with a clear contradictions in many of these cropping patterns and bio-refining focus on the long term benefits to calls, especially when Europe to produce quality, high protein European fuel security and the imports around 84 per cent of its animal feed, for which the European environment". crude oil from abroad and the same Union has a 20million tonne deficit NGOs demand an end to EU grain each year. Organisations against food-based exports or drive direct land use biofuels welcomed the limit change here while ignoring its “The leaked EC proposals, if proposed by the EU. indirect impact overseas. At a time implemented, could exacerbate the when fossil fuel costs are high, the situation of high prices. Removing
“As recent events in the US drought- cost of increasing our dependency certainty from the market will send S stricken corn-belt show, a mandate on fuel imports from OPEC and a signal to arable farmers to W
to turn food into fuel can destabilise others by removing biofuel concentrate on reducing costs as E world food prices and worsen world mandates would be both financially they did in 2007.” N
OCTOBER 2012 FARMINGUK 11
EWT IN TURBINE LICENSING DEAL FOR BRAZIL
September 2012 EWT has certainly will achieve success. FEEL is the permanent magnet 2.0MW concluded a license agreement for already preparing to install the first turbine back in 2010. The new the Brazilian market with Flessak turbines by mid 2013." turbine is expected to have a best- Energia Eolica Ltda (FEEL) in order in-class performance level due to its to introduce EWT’s 900kW direct EWT’s previous experience with low weight to rotor swept area drive wind turbines in Brazil. licensee partner China Energine has ratio. shown how successful such a project The first facilities for the production can be. CEO Eric Bakker states: of components for DIRECTWIND “EWT is confident to have found the 52/54-900 wind turbines are being right partner in the quickly growing built in the province of Parana Brazilian market. With the vast “EWT is confident (southern Brazil) and will be sized to experience in the manufacturing of produce for the fast-growing hydro generators and their to have found the Brazilian wind market. knowledge of industrial processes right partner in combined with a very good The Brazilian wind market is one of knowledge of the market and EWT’s the quickly the most promising markets for the proven direct-drive technology, we wind business in the coming years are perfectly positioned to be growing Brazilian with a strong focus by local successful in Brazil.“ market... we are governments to attract skills and production to the area. An attractive EWT and FEEL are also developing perfectly niche in this market is the net an electrically excited generator for metering segment which is driven by EWT’s new 2.3 MW wind turbine positioned to be recently introduced net metering which will be prototyped in the successful in regulations for projects up to 1 MW Netherlands. and for which the EWT 900kW Brazil. S turbine is perfectly suited. Pedro This wind class IIA turbine will be Fulan CEO of FEEL is very excited Eric Bakker: W
EWT’s second in the 2MW class E about this deal: "The 900kW turbine after the successful introduction of EWT CEO “ N OCTOBER 2012 FARMINGUK 13
Farmers views of black-grass and its control
The majority of farmers across the farmers had done to approach their farm and 4% were unsure if UK (61%) rated their black-grass black-grass control, both cultural they had resistance or not. ACCase control last year worse or and chemical methods, and what target site resistance to fops, dims significantly worse than the they plan to do this autumn. Close and dens was highlighted by 39% of previous season, according to a to 200 farmers across the UK farmers. ALS target site resistance to BASF sponsored survey conducted answered a series of questions sulphonyl-ureas and enhanced in this summer. mainly related to black-grass and metabolism resistance was marked the results make interesting reading. down by 26% and 27% of farmers A quarter of farmers thought their What is encouraging is the depth of respectively. However this was black-grass control was the same understanding farmers have about confirmed by a resistance test in and just 14% thought it was better how best to control black-grass and only one third of cases. or significantly better and this was also the importance they place on mainly due to good timing of both chemical and cultural control. Integrating chemical and cultural herbicide applications, use of What proves to be difficult are the strategies came through strongly in break/spring crops and good practicalities of implementing best the survey; ploughing was the seedbed preparation. A lower black- practice on farm, evident last preferred method of cultural grass seed bank, use of delayed season where the weather had a control, followed by spring cropping drilling, adequate moisture and big impact.” and then delayed drilling. good efficacy from pre-em Unsurprisingly fallow was quoted as herbicides also featured strongly. Asked about the incidence of black- the preferred method of control by grass on their farm, almost half of just 4% of farmers. What was You only had to look at the amount farmer respondents categorised different compared to the previous of black-grass above crops this black-grass as a problem on over year was the ability to kill several summer to realise that control levels 50% of their arable land; whilst flushes of black-grass last autumn; S were disappointing in many instances, almost one third said it was a 28% of farmers said that they were L says cereal herbicide specialist Sarah problem right across the whole field. unable to kill any black-grass prior to A Mountford-Smith of BASF. Weed resistance was a problem on drilling last autumn. Almost 50% of E most farms included in the survey. farmers said that they managed to R “We wanted to find out what Only 8% cited no weed resistance on kill just one weed flush. E C
OCTOBER 2012 FARMINGUK 15
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EPA Products is a supplier of control systems, alarm systems, Ziehl fans and lighting systems primarily to the agricultural sector, but increasingly to other engineering sectors. The firm has been established in Hertfordshire for over 40 years.
As well as acting as a major distributor for some of the best known names in the business, EPA also manufacturers a range of alarm systems to suit the agricultural market and beyond. These include a number of systems to ensure personal safety, prevent disease spreading and ensure that the premises and production facilities are kept at their optimum condition. Tel 01438 832281 Fax 01438 832162 [email protected] or visit our web site www.epaproducts.co.uk Looking ahead to this autumn, the survey indicated that delayed drilling and stale seedbeds would move right up the agenda, as they were quoted most frequently as the one thing that farmers intended to change this autumn. Use of pre-ems, more spring cropping, avoiding continuous wheat, ploughing and the use of Avadex (tri-allate) all got significant mentions, with the acceptance that the weather has a key role to play.
With the autumn upon us, and results from BASF funded research showing that weed seed dormancy is very high, all the above tactics will be important. In many fields this year there will be a high seed return. The amount and timing of weed emergence will depend on the freshly shed seed summer 2012 Surge in seed potato (which has high dormancy) and the population in the seed bank (which will emerge very soon in the export figures presence of moisture). The seed potato industry is on a Mylnefield Research and from Whilst 90% of 2012 seed is high as Potato Council has Science and Advice for Scottish expected to emerge 60 days after announced another record year for Agriculture (SASA) plus support from drilling, 10% will emerge in the seed exports, with this year’s the Scottish government is also key presence of moisture, and this figures surpassing 103,000 tonnes. to achieving a strong export position autumn there is no shortage of for varieties from GB. that. This means there is a good “This year, despite the testing opportunity to reduce populations conditions experienced by growers, “Moreover, by establishing an prior to drilling, provided the late we have achieved another record important presence at targeted harvest allows. for our exports of seed potatoes,” international events such as Potato says Potato Council head of seed Europe and Fruit Logistica, we are The success of this practice and export Rob Burns, who has helping our exporters to enjoy a depends on the seed bank recently returned from a successful higher profile for a modest cost population and its proximity to the Potato Europe. when they share the stand with us. soil surface. Where control from At Potato Europe this year, we 2011/12 was poor and high seed “Key areas of growth have been the again achieved a significant increase return expected, ploughing could North African countries and the in footfall on our stand, which be the best option in order to bury Middle East, thanks in part to careful will further help our exporters seed. Cultivations will, however, development of seed potatoes to to build trade.” stir up the seed bank bringing up ensure great results in varying old seed; it is important to consider climatic conditions. This is really British seed potatoes are what is likely to come back up. exciting news as these markets are successfully produced for fresh developing, and should show and processed markets in countries Advice this autumn is to delay important growth in the coming years.” as diverse as Egypt, South America drilling the worst black-grass fields and Asia. on the farm and utilise stale Mr Burns attributes the success to seedbeds to spray off flushes that the professionalism of exporters, “Our success in the export markets S germinate before drilling combined with Potato Council’s is mainly due to a winning L whereever possible. work with overseas governments to combination of professionalism, A help smooth the path for teamwork and offering the different E international import conditions. markets what they need, with timely R E
Independent specialist advice from delivery assured,” he concludes. C
OCTOBER 2012 FARMINGUK 17 JCB Insurance offers users of Block Stem a reduction of up to 40% in the cost of their premiums ¬ The Block Stem comprises just two sections, each made from hardened C40 steel which, when deployed, are locked together around a vehicle’s extended steering axle ram. This prevents the vehicle being steered and, should it be driven, restricts it to only going round in circles. The Block Stem is locked and unlocked using a unique key and when the unit is not in use, it can be stored away in the tractor’s tool box.
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To order you block stem now or for more information contact: Derwent Trading International Ltd Tel: +44 (0)1902 753842/744475 Email: [email protected] Get the block stem now and keep your tractor secure GM REGULATION CRITICISED AS NEW STUDY SHOWS HEALTH DANGERS
The European Commission is the EU's GMO safety assessment Food Safety Authority (EFSA), which pushing through a new draft be strengthened. has questioned the need for feeding Regulation that weakens the way trials. EFSA also claimed that 90-day genetically modified (GM) foods The draft Regulation has not been trials are sufficient to identify long- are assessed for safety. subjected to formal Parliamentary term toxic effects. scrutiny but will be voted on in a The Commission's move comes just behind-closed-doors Commission The new study shows that EFSA's as new research has revealed that committee on an undisclosed date and the Commission's positions are a GM maize already approved in in the coming weeks. faulty. Clearly feeding trials are Europe for use in food and feed, necessary to reveal unexpected can cause tumours, premature Activists are calling on the toxic effects. And they must be death and organ damage at Commission to freeze the progress long-term. While 90-day trials failed levels claimed to be safe by EU of the draft regulation and open it to to detect tumours and premature regulatory authorities. full public consultation in light of the deaths, the longer 2-year study new scientific findings. revealed this harm. A new study found that rats fed over two years with GM maize at levels Yet EU authorities had approved this A 2009 analysis by independent permitted in drinking water, food GM maize as safe, based on a short scientists of industry's own 90-day and feed, died earlier than rats fed 90-day rat feeding trial trial data on NK603 maize showed on a non-GM diet, according to commissioned by the crop's that even this data revealed signs of research conducted by French developer, Monsanto. liver and kidney toxicity. But the scientists who carried out the trial. European Food Safety Authority The new research shows that rats (EFSA) ignored these signs, "If adopted, the draft Regulation will only began to develop tumours after concluding that NK603 was "as safe" leave the public even more exposed four months – an effect that the 90- as non-GM maize and "unlikely to to serious health risks such as those day feeding trials typically done for have an adverse effect on human revealed by the new study" said GMO assessments cannot detect, as and animal health". Claire Robinson, research director 90 days is just too short. at Earth Open Source. Claire Robinson said, "The history of S
The draft Regulation does not this maize shows that EFSA is unfit L
The report says the draft Regulation require long-term feeding trials and for purpose and too close to the GM A undermines democratically contains problematic wording that industry. EFSA's industry-friendly E established EU GMO legislation could enable even the weak 90-day stance on GMOs has unfortunately R and 'betrays' demands in 2008 by study to be waived in future. This infected the draft Regulation." E the EU Environment Council that would fit the stance of the European C
OCTOBER 2012 FARMINGUK 19 GTBG - The first true agrochemical only buying group.
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Protestors from the UK joined the environment, biodiversity, climate The march will culminate in a mass largest ever rally in Brussels calling change, public health and the future brunch outside the European for radical farming reform. of our countryside" said Kirtana Parliament with organic, seasonal Chandrasekaran, Food campaigner, and regional food. Demonstrators The activists say the global food Friends of the Earth England, Wales will hand over albums filled with one system prioritises multinational and Northern Ireland thousand messages on food and corporations over the "demands of farming from citizens to ordinary people". "Members of the European representatives of the European Parliament must heed the call of institutions. The march called for a more citizens for strong and genuine sustainable farming system, a halt to green reform of the CAP. It is time The Good Food March is the food speculation and the usage of for the parliament to show initiative of ARC2020, European local protein feed crops rather than leadership and ensure there is Coordination Via Campesina, the importation of soy to feed transparent and inclusive decision- European Milk Board, Friends of the Europe's farm animals. making which takes into account Earth Europe, IFOAM EU Group, opinions of all parliamentarians and Meine Landwirtschaft, Group Citizens of more than 20 EU civil society.” PAC2013 and Slow Food. In total countries joined the final day of the more than 100 organisations from Good Food March demanding fairer Geneviève Savigny, a farmer from 20 countries are involved. and greener farming, an end to food France and a spokesperson for the speculation, and more home grown European Coordination Via protein animal feeds. Campesina said: “The Good Food March is the biggest gathering of The Common Agricultural Policy citizens calling for a radical change (CAP) is currently being debated by of direction in European food and decision makers in Brussels and the farming policy. It has attracted European Parliament will make key people from across Europe, sending S decisions on the CAP in November. a very powerful message to decision W
- makers that people want planet E "EU agricultural policy affects our friendly farming with many farmers." N
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