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Water Risks Emerging Risk Initiative – Position Paper November 2016 Full Members: Aegon, Allianz, Aviva, AXA, Achmea, Ageas, Generali, Groupama, Hannover Re, ING, Munich Re, Prudential, Swiss Re, Zurich Financial Services Associate Members: Lloyds Banking Group, Manulife Financial, Old Mutual, RSA, Unipol, ACE, Legal and General, Chartis Table of Contents 1 FOREWORD 3 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4 3 INTRODUCTION 6 4 WATER SCARCITY & ACCESS TO WATER 9 5 WATER & POLLUTION 16 6 WATER & HEALTH 24 7 WATER TREATMENT & DISPOSAL / REMOVAL / RECYCLING 28 8 WATER & GEOPOLITICAL / SOCIAL RISKS 34 9 WATER & REPUTATIONAL / REGULATORY / CUMULATIVE RISKS 40 10 CONCLUSION 46 TABLE OF EXAMPLES / BLUE BOXES / ILLUSTRATIONS 49 APPENDIX 50 GLOSSARY OF ABBREVIATIONS 51 REFERENCES 52 CRO Forum – November 2016 1 CRO Forum – November 2016 2 1 FOREWORD Water risks constitute major challenges – both in terms of threats and opportunities – for society as a whole, and for the re/insurance industry. Yet, they are widely underestimated, disregarded or simply ignored. The Emerging Risks Initiative (ERI) of the Chief Risk Officer (CRO) Forum has aimed at synthesizing in this publication what water risks represent for the re/insurance industry. Summarized in instructive and simple terms, illustrated with many practical examples, it is a contribution to the CRO Forum’s goal of providing best practice in risk management to advance business. In line with earlier papers by the ERI, this publication is a further demonstration that the re/insurance industry is concerned and strives to stay abreast of key social, climatic and technological evolutions. For each water-related risk examined – scarcity, pollution, health, treatment, conflicts, regulatory and reputational issues – it emphasizes how the insurance and reinsurance industry can offer assistance to customers that are adopting innovative water-related projects or technologies. The paper also shows that insurers and reinsurers can invest in promising projects to promote efficient water management or better assessment of the risks. I would like to thank Phillip Blumenthal and Michael Bruch from Allianz, Pauline Briaud and Hélène Chauveau from AXA, Marina Kodric from Generali, Michael Held and Andreas Tacke from Hannover Re, Anna Bordon from Lloyd’s, Gerhard Schmid from Munich Re, Alex Mewha from Old Mutual, Marcia Cantor-Grable and Gary Killick from Prudential, Luke Watts from RSA, Sandra Burmeier and Rainer Egloff from Swiss Re, Jörg Grünenwald and Till Siegmann from Zurich Insurance, Guillaume Farges, Georges Hélou and Irene Merk from SCOR, for their active contribution to this publication. I also thank the many subject specialists who assisted the team: Bernard Barraqué, Johann Clere, Yves Levi, Evelyne Lyons and more specifically Ghislain de Marsily for his insightful support. Special thanks to Philippe Béraud and Claire Hugo from SCOR who have been coordinating the working group. Frieder KNÜPLING Group Chief Risk Officer, SCOR CRO Forum – November 2016 3 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2.1 Water Risks: an Increasing Concern By 2050, the world’s population is expected to reach 9.7 billion. It will be 11 billion by 2100. All these people will need water to meet their most basic needs. Agriculture, industry and domestic life rely on the abundant supply of safe water. However, this is by no means guaranteed and unpredictable water quality and availability represent one of the decade’s top emerging risks. Freshwater risk management is complex to assess. Such difficulty stems from the paradoxical nature of water: it is plentiful to many yet its scarcity affects hundreds of millions of people, it is both fossil and renewable, it is freely supplied by nature but its treatment, distribution and wastage have a cost. Water risks are often underestimated, disregarded or simply ignored. This results in a global lack of preparation for future impacts and has implications for the re/insurance industry, as a majority of water risks represent externalities which are not properly priced or assessed. Consequently, the re/insurance industry is concerned, especially in the following areas: ■ Re/insurers will have to respond to a growing frequency and severity of losses; ■ Awareness levels could be improved and re/insurers will have a role in increasing understanding; ■ As significant investors, re/insurers may foster innovation in water-related domains by directing investments into innovative projects, technologies and asset lines. The difficulty to assess future water risks is emphasized by the advent of new technologies and big infrastructure projects the eventual effects of which are as yet unclear. 2.2 What Are the Risks? A number of water risks are considered in this paper, including the impact of scarcity, pollution, water- related illnesses, treatment and topics of social, political and economic interests. Natural resources are unequally distributed around the world. Physical water scarcity, or the literal lack of water, is gradually worsening in many areas. Economic water scarcity from lack of finance or inadequate water management will lead to the rapid depletion of usable water resources. Such shortages will inevitably have implications in a wide range of insurance lines of business: property, agriculture, casualty, life and health. Major contamination events, from infrastructure issues or accidents are internationally broadcast and become part of the collective memory. Pollution from industry, agriculture and private usage may result in toxic elements, including heavy metals, chemicals and pesticides, seeping into soil and groundwater. Not only can such events have significant socioeconomic implications, the costs can also be high. Clean-up costs of large scale contamination events can exceed US$1 billion along with other costs such as legal and compensation costs which are often insured. Some of the world’s most threatening epidemics spread via water. Infectious parasites, pathogenic micro-organisms and insect larvae develop in still water, and disease-ridden elements are spread by river flows to unaffected areas. The impact on mortality rates of such contaminations via water are visible in the course of large outbreaks. The probability of occurrence is expected to increase further in the near future due to the proliferation of disease-causing agents linked to climate change and human population growth. The extent of the impact on health of chemicals and micro-particles in water is yet to be assessed. Human health may also be impacted indirectly through crops, fish or livestock that consume contaminated water. Life re/insurers have very large potential accumulation risks in case of pandemics resulting from infectious diseases. Likewise, they could also be seriously impacted by aggravated mortality resulting from large scale contamination of water and food in insured population. CRO Forum – November 2016 4 Ensuring clean water supply is a key to socioeconomic development. A failure to deliver or maintain a clean water supply can be inhibiting for any society. Many emerging countries are less capable of treating their water due to insufficient economic means. Water treatment in developed countries is subject to increasingly stringent regulations and quality standards to address pollution. Furthermore, treatment plants are considered as critical infrastructure that can potentially disseminate toxic products on a large scale as a result of human error or terrorist attack. Such a large scale event in a major city could seriously impact the re/insurance industry. “Fierce national competition over water resources has prompted fears that water issues contain the seeds of violent conflict”1 Kofi Annan, Former UN Secretary General Water issues trigger strong emotional responses in people. Distribution conflicts may lead to social unrest and ultimately even cause inter-state conflicts, as seen in Jordan or in the Nile regions. Major upheaval caused by water risks could be responsible for large scale famines, widespread population displacement as well as impact business performance or access to certain markets. For re/insurers, such conflicts could generate losses under life, health, property damages, business interruption and motor policies. Reputation risks can be significant for companies found guilty of water mismanagement, encouraging bad water policies or simply failing to deter poor water practices. In addition to potential legal liability, they could lose their license to operate. Water risks are also often aggravated by cumulative effects, which further complicate their assessment. Assessing water’s direct and indirect costs, and identifying missed opportunities will reveal the “true” price of water and could lead to the development of new insurance products. Flood and drought are water risks well known by the re/insurance industry. Since they can hardly be considered as Emerging Risks, they are not in focus of this paper. 2.3 What Can Re/Insurance Bring to the Table? Using their expertise in risk management, re/insurance companies can contribute to assessing water risks and promoting awareness of the risks and their consequences. Local actors seeking insurance could be encouraged towards long-term planning and to use new technologies or water-monitoring devices to ensure better understanding of their water supplies. New considerations in underwriting could also be directed to favour businesses with efficient water management. The re/insurance industry represents substantial investment capacity over the medium and long term. It
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