Effects of Local Shoreline and Subestuary Watershed Condition on Waterbird Community Integrity in the Impacts of shoreline hardening and watershed land use on nearshore habitats aka “NOAA Shorelines Project”

NOAA-CSCOR Funded Research (2009-2014) 17 Principal Investigators from 8 Institutions Goals • Improve scientific knowledge about effects of stressors in near-shore environments (<2m deep) • Transition new knowledge to improve management of near-shore environments Compare shoreline types

Natural Marsh Phragmites Rip-Rap Bulkhead Beach Marsh

Forested Residential Development Agricultural …in bays and sub-estuaries with watersheds that have differing land use Objectives – Waterbird Component

• Improve our understanding of the effects of shoreline hardening and land use on waterbird communities using the Chesapeake and Coastal Bays

• Work in conjunction with the other macro-fauna groups Credit: Johann Schumacher (fish and invertebrates), How to Assess Waterbird Community Usage?

Community Metrics: Species Richness, Diversity Species level abundance/density; Guilds

1. Index of Waterbird Community Integrity (developed by DeLuca et al. 2008)

2. Subestuary Scale (plus 2 others) Index of Waterbird Community Integrity (IWCI) (After DeLuca et al. 2008. Biol. Conserv.)

IWCI = (∑ S IWCI / S N) + (2) A I ALSO: Species Richness Where: S IWCI = Individual Species Index Species Density SN = Total no. of species Guild Analysis AI = Abundance score for each species (i)

Weighted for sensitive versus tolerant species Indices Foraging Breadth Nesting Sensitivity Migratory Status Breeding Range State Listing Native Status Index of Waterbird Community Integrity SIWCI (range 21 to 5) Disturbance Sensitive Species Disturbance Tolerant Species

Royal Tern Ring-billed Gull (Thalasseus maximus) (Larus delawarensis)

Siwci = 21 Siwci = 9.5

Hooded Merganser Double-crested Cormorant (Lophodytes cucullatus) (Phalacrocorax auritus)

Siwci = 20 Siwci = 9.5

Semipalmated Sandpiper Canada Goose (resident) (Calidrus pusilla) (Branta canadensis)

Siwci = 18.5 Siwci = 8.5

Laughing Gull Mallard (Leucophaeus atricilla) (Anas platyrhynchos)

Siwci = 17.5 Siwci = 7

Bald Eagle Domestic duck

(Haliaeetus leucocephalus) Siwci = 5 Siwci = 16.5 Resident versus Migratory Canada Geese MIGO = Siwci 12 (disturbance sensitive) CAGO = Siwci 8.5 (disturbance tolerant)

• September 15 – MD DNR threshold for migrant CAGO • Compare summer surveys (should be resident) to Fall • Confirm using survey notes (on lawns) Adaptations to Deluca et al 2008

1. Updated IWCI species database

a) Standardize IWCI index scores definitions Foraging Niche Nesting Site Selectivity Migratory Distance Breeding Range Conservation Status

b) Score all species for Chesapeake Bay (n=120 spp)

2. Deluca used 100m transects; we used area counts and densities because it was hard to find contiguous shoreline types at that scale

Prosser et al. 2017 In Press . Waterbirds Methods

 Area Counts– survey shoreline and open water from boat

 Each site visited 2 seasons per year (2010-2014) Late Summer (Aug-Sept) and late Fall (Oct –Dec)

 Each site visited 3 times per season

 Calculated Index of Waterbird Community Integrity, species richness, and density by subestuary and season Shoreline Delineations (GIS and Groundtruth)

Shoreline Type Beach Bulkhead Developed Forest Natural Marsh Open Water Phragmites Rip Rap Curtis Old Road Bay Study Sites (n=21) Langford Stony 2014 Corsica 2014 (Dev) Magothy 2013 Old Road Bay (Dev) Rhode Onancock River (Mix Ag) 2012 Occohannock River (Mix Ag) Miles

2013 Harris 2011 Corrotoman River (For) 2010 Harris Creek (Agr, MixDev) Mill Creek (MixDev) St. Leonard Honga Mill Creek Mill 2012 (MixDev, Dev) St. Mary’s (Agr, MixDev) Stony Creek (Dev)

2011 (Dev) Onancock East River (For) Corrotoman Poquoson River (Mix Dev) – Poq East and West Ware River (For) Occohannock

2010 East (Agr) Ware (Oth Mix) Langford Creek (Agr) Poquoson (For) St. Mary River (Oth Mix,For) St. Leonard Cr. (For) Back A total of 64 species were observed

American Black Duck Forster's tern Red-breasted Merganser American Coot Gadwall Redknot American Great black-backed Ring-necked Duck Oystercatcher gull Red-necked Grebe Bald eagle Great blue heron Royal tern Black-crowned Night Great egret Ruddy Duck Heron Green heron Sanderling Belted kingfisher Greater Yellowlegs Sandwich Tern Bonaparte's Gull Herring gull Short-billed Dowitcher Brown Pelican Horned Grebe Semipalmated Plover Bufflehead Hooded Merganser Canada goose Killdeer Semipalmated Sandpiper Canvasback Laughing gull Snowy egret Caspian Tern Little Blue Heron Spotted sandpiper Common Goldeneye Lesser Scaup Surf Scoter Common Loon Least tern Tri-colored Heron Common Merganser Long-tailed Duck Tundra swan Common tern Mallard Western Sandpiper Double-crested Mute swan Wood duck Cormorant Osprey Yellow-crowned Night Domestic duck/goose Pied-billed grebe Heron Fish crow Ring-billed gull 2014 Summer Surveys (Aug-Sept)

IWCI Mean No. Mean Shoreline Density by Sub-estuary Birds Species Length Shoreline Observed Richness (km) Length

Curtis Creek 54.39 21 17.09 3.48 16.93

Old RoadBay 26.13 17 16.66 1.45 14.26

OccohannockRiver 22.07 17 37.517 0.58 16.53

Onancock River 15.69 19 50.147 0.29 17.78

Top three species (abundance): Laughing Gull Double-crested Cormorant Canada Goose 2014 Fall Surveys (October-December)

Mean No. Mean Shoreline Density by IWCI Sub-estuary Birds Species Length Shoreline Observed Richness (km) Length

Curtis Creek 35.69 17 17.09 2.09 16.86

Old RoadBay 17.79 15 16.66 1.07 15.63

OccohannockRiver 46.05 17 37.517 1.23 17.27

Onancock River 44.04 15 50.147 0.88 17.22

Top three species (abundance): Bufflehead Canada Goose (Resident) Herring Gull IWCI Scores by Season

Paired t-test Summer 14.13 to 19.62 Summer x=16.94 Fall 15.63 to 19.73 Fall x=17.36 p=0.057 19

18

17 IWCI Summer

16 Fall

15

14 Three Scales of Shoreline/Landcover Categorization: 1. Shoreline (Bird Survey Area) 2. Landscape 500m around bird survey boundary 3. Landscape Watershed Shoreline Delineation – Shoreline Scale

Corsica Honga Langford Rhode St. Leonard Beach St. Mary

Back Bulkhead East Poq. East Developed Poq. West Ware Forest Magothy Stony Natural Miles Marsh Corrotoman Phrag Harris Marsh Mill Creek Riprap Curtis Creek Old Road Bay Occohannock Onancock

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Landscape Analysis – 500m from shoreline

Corsica Honga Langford St. Leonard St. Mary's Rhode Back East DEV Poquoson CROP Ware GRAS Magothy FOR Miles WETL Stony Corrotomon Harris Mill Old Road Bay Curtis Occohannock Onancock

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Landscape Analysis – Watershed

Corsica Honga Langford St Leonards St Marys Rhode Back East Poquoson DEV Ware CROP Magothy GRAS Miles FOR Stony WETL Corrotoman Harris Mill Old Road Bay Curtis Occohannock Onancock

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% IWCI by Dominant Landscape (Summer) IWCI

Forest Agriculture Developed

p=0.23, ANOVA Univariate regression (α ≤ 0.20) to determine variables for Model Selection (Full Model) Summer Fall Shoreline (7): Shoreline (7): Bulkhead Bulkhead Rip Rap Rip Rap Developed (lawns) Developed (lawns) Phragmites Phragmites Natural Marsh Natural Marsh Forest Forest Beach Beach

500m (5) Watershed (5): 500m (5) Watershed (5): DEV500m DEV DEV500m DEV CROP500m CROP CROP500m CROP GRASS500m GRASS GRASS500m GRASS FOR500m FOR FOR500m FOR WETL500m WETL WETL500m WETL Backwards Model Selection Regression: IWCI and shoreline/land use

AIC ∆ AIC R2 Season Model Score c Late Summer Null 72.10 -- -- Full Model: Bulkhead + Phragmites Marsh + 69.95 2.15 0.62 Natural Marsh + WETL500m + (WETL500m) 2 Step 2: Bulkhead + Phragmites Marsh + 66.70 3.25 0.50 Natural Marsh Step 3: Bulkhead + Phragmites Marsh 63.94 2.76 0.49

Late Fall Null 60.97 -- -- Full Model: Bulkhead + Riprap + Natural 3.14 0.38 Marsh + DEV500m 64.11 Step 2: Bulkhead + Riprap + DEV500m 60.36 3.75 0.38 Step 3: Bulkhead + DEV500m 57.94 2.42 0.34 Step 4: Bulkhead 56.90 1.04 0.28 Birds are responding to effects at the shoreline scale!

p=0.002 IWCI Score

Percent Bulkhead

p=0.04 IWCI Score

Percent Phragmites Hardened vs. Non-hardened Shoreline (hardened= bulkhead and rip-rap)

Hardened Non-hardened

p=0.020 p=0.024 Threshold Limit of Bulkhead Development on IWCI

Threshold? Cumulative Probability of a Thresholdof Probability Cumulative Looking Beyond the IWCI Shorebirds

Shorebirds x Wetland Positive relationship at Subestuary and Watershed Scales

Shorebirds x Natural Marsh Shorebirds x Wetland (NLCD06)

shoreb = - 0.3570 + 0.04752 GS_NM shoreb = - 0.3879 + 0.2957 WETLAND06 6 6

5 5

4 4

3 3 shoreb shoreb 2 2

1 1

p=0.002 0 0 p=0.003 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 WETLAND06 GS_NM Mallards

Mallards x Development Positive relationship at Subestuary and Watershed Scales

Mallards x Bulkhead Mallards x DEV (NLCD06)

MALL = - 2.618 + 1.309 GS_BH 60 MALL = - 0.081 + 0.3833 DEV06 60 p=0.06 50 50 40 40 30

MALL 30

20 MALL 20 10 p<0.001 10 0

0 10 20 30 40 0 GS_BH 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 DEV06 Canada Goose density driven by Landscape level Cropland

Corsica Honga Langford St Leonard St Marys Rhode Back East Poquoson East Poquoson West DEV Poquoson CROP Ware Magothy GRAS Miles FOR Stony Corrotoman WETL Harris Mill East Mill West Mill Curtis Creek Old Road Bay Geese x Landscape CROP Onancock Occohannock 6000 S 741.273 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% R-Sq 86.8% R-Sq(adj) 85.9% 5000 Geese x Local Natural Marsh 4000

6000 S 1942.76 R-Sq 15.5% R-Sq(adj) 3.5% 5000 3000

4000 p=0.31 2000 3000 Number of Geese Number MaxGoose 2000 1000

1000 0 0 p<0.001

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 GS_NM 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 CROP06 Looking across macro-fauna groups

Perry et al. 2007 IWCI and Invertebrate Biomass (n=9 subestuaries) (n=9 Biomass Invertebrate IWCIand Invertebrate Biomass 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

IWCI_Fall IWCI_Sum Biomass Poly Biomass Clams Biomass IWCI p=0.02 p=0.07 IWCI and Littoral Fish Biomass (n=7 subestuaries) Littoral-Benthic

Mummichog Striped Killifish

Grass Shrimp Naked Goby

p=0.004 Summary

•IWCI is sensitive to measuring bird communities across subestuary conditions •Seasonal differences •IWCI decreases with: •Percent bulkhead and phragmites • We observed relationships between IWCI and benthic invertebrates and littoral fish • Looking at individual species or guilds is also informative “Birds Boycott Bulkhead” “Waterbirds are

p=0.002 Wild for Wetlands” IWCI Score IWCI Score p=0.015 Percent Bulkhead p=0.007

“Birds say Phooey to Phragmites” Percent Natural Marsh

p=0.04 IWCI Score

Percent Phragmites Thanks to:

Mike Erwin, Dan Day, Paul Marb án, Brian Ho Sung Lee, Mary Maxey, Shane Heath, Bridget Collins, Lisa Vormwald Special Issue, 2017

“Impacts of coastal land use and shoreline armoring on estuarine systems”

1 Overview paper 14 Research Papers Thank You! Back River – Highest IWCI

IWCI = 19.49, 19.73(summer, fall)

Back River, Local Scale Back River, Watershed Scale 70.00 60.00 60.00 50.00 50.00 40.00 40.00 30.00 30.00 20.00 20.00 10.00 10.00 0.00 0.00 Beach Bulkhead Developed Forest Natural Developed Crop Grass Forest Wetland Marsh Back River

Extensive beach habitat Back River

Top 5 Species Mean Siwci Density (indiv/km) Double-crested 5.0 9.5 Cormorant Laughing Gull 1.7 17.5 Royal Tern 1.7 21 Herring Gull 1.0 7 Forster’s Tern 0.6 17.5 Land categories across Scales

250

200 Developed 150 100 Watershed 50 500m 0 Local East River Back River MillCreek Ware River MilesRiver Stony Creek RhodeRiver Curtis Creek Honga River Harris Creek Corsica River Magthy River Old Road Bay PoquosonEast St Marys River PoquosonWest LangfordCreek Onancock River Saint LeonardCr Corrotoman River Occohannock River

140 120 100 80 Wetland 60 40 Watershed 20 500m 0 Local East River Back River MillCreek Ware River MilesRiver Stony Creek RhodeRiver Curtis Creek Honga River Harris Creek Corsica River Magthy River Old Road Bay PoquosonEast St Marys River PoquosonWest LangfordCreek Onancock River Saint LeonardCr Corrotoman River Occohannock River Landscape Analysis – Watershed

Corsica Honga Langford St Leonards St Marys Rhode Back East Poquoson DEV Ware CROP Magothy GRAS Miles FOR Stony WETL Corrotoman Harris Mill Old Road Bay Curtis Occohannock Onancock

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%