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Meeting Security Challenges in a Disordered World

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Meeting Security Challenges in a Disordered World COVER PHOTO ADOBE STOCK MAY 2017 MEETING SECURITY CHALLENGES IN A DISORDERED WORLD 1616 Rhode Island Avenue NW Washington, DC 20036 202 887 0200 | www.csis.org Meeting Security Lanham • Boulder • New York • London 4501 Forbes Boulevard Lanham, MD 20706 Challenges in a 301 459 3366 | www.rowman.com Disordered World REBECCA K. C. HERSMAN REBECCA PROJECT DIRECTOR & EDITOR Rebecca K. C. Hersman AUTHORS Anthony Bell Alice Hunt Friend Kathryn McNabb Cochran Rebecca K. C. Hersman Melissa Dalton Sarah Minot Marc Frey ISBN 978-1-4422-8013-7 Ë|xHSLEOCy280137z v*:+:!:+:! Blank MAY 2017 Meeting Security Challenges in a Disordered World PROJ ECT DIRECTOR & EDITOR Rebecca K. C. Hersman AUTHORS Anthony Bell Alice Hunt Friend Kathryn McNabb Cochran Rebecca K. C. Hersman Melissa Dalton Sarah Minot Marc Frey Lanham • Boulder • New York • London 594-69657_ch00_3P.indd 1 5/20/17 1:03 PM About CSIS For over 50 years, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has worked to develop solutions to the world’s greatest policy challenges. Today, CSIS scholars are providing strategic insights and bipartisan policy solutions to help decisionmakers chart a course toward a better world. CSIS is a nonprofit organ ization headquartered in Washington, D.C. The Center’s 220 full- time staff and large network of affiliated scholars conduct research and analy sis and develop policy initiatives that look into the future and anticipate change. Founded at the height of the Cold War by David M. Abshire and Admiral Arleigh Burke, CSIS was dedicated to finding ways to sustain American prominence and prosperity as a force for good in the world. Since 1962, CSIS has become one of the world’s preeminent international institutions focused on defense and security; regional stability; and transnational challenges ranging from energy and climate to global health and economic integration. Thomas J. Pritzker was named chairman of the CSIS Board of Trustees in November 2015. Former U.S. deputy secretary of defense John J. Hamre has served as the Center’s president and chief executive officer since 2000. CSIS does not take specific policy positions; accordingly, all views expressed herein should be understood to be solely those of the author(s). © 2017 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. All rights reserved. ISBN: 978-1-4422-8013-7 (pb); 978-1-4422-8014-4 (eBook) Center for Strategic & International Studies Rowman & Littlefield 1616 Rhode Island Ave nue, NW 4501 Forbes Boulevard Washington, DC 20036 Lanham, MD 20706 202-887-0200 | www.csis.org 301-459-3366 | www . rowman . com 594-69657_ch00_3P.indd 2 5/20/17 1:03 PM Contents iv Acknowl edgments v Executive Summary PART 1. INTRODUCTION 2 CHAPTER 1 | Introduction PART 2. CASE STUDIES 10 CHAPTER 2 | Addressing a Humanitarian Crisis in a Collapsed Region Melissa Dalton 25 CHAPTER 3 | Countering Terrorism and Violent Extremism Anthony Bell and Alice Hunt Friend 42 CHAPTER 4 | Countering Regional Aggression Kathryn McNabb Cochran 63 CHAPTER 5 | Responding to a Cross- Border Health Crisis Sarah Minot 80 CHAPTER 6 | Countering Deepening Criminal Vio lence at the Subnational Level Marc Frey PART 3. CONCLUSION 96 CHAPTER 7 | Key Themes and Takeaways 111 CHAPTER 8 | Conclusion 112 About the Authors III 594-69657_ch00_3P.indd 3 5/20/17 1:03 PM Acknowl edgments The authors would like to thank all the experts that participated in working group meetings and provided feedback. In par tic u lar, the study team would like to thank Beth Cole, Max Kelly, and Loren DeJonge Schulman for reviewing the report and providing valuable comments. This report is made pos si ble by general support to CSIS. No direct sponsorship has contributed to its publication. IV 594-69657_ch00_3P.indd 4 5/20/17 1:03 PM Executive Summary Today the world faces a volatile convergence of instability, state weakness, and conflict. These conditions are complicating the ability of the United States to operate and pursue security objec- tives in a number of critical regions. Crises and threats, propelled by advancements in communi- cation and technology, increasingly disperse instability across state borders and engage regional powers directly and indirectly. In some cases, nonstate or substate actors have emerged as in de- pen dent sources of power and authority in both local and regional contexts. Porous borders, weak national institutions, and power ful nonstate and trans- state actors challenge bilateral and multilat- eral crisis responses. While working to resolve the under lying causes of instability might be preferable, ongoing issues may arise that are within the United States’ interest to address more immediately. The United States needs to be able to work within the constraints of fragile environments, to implement approaches that address pressing security threats and objectives and meet relatively urgent security or human- itarian needs. Recognizing that need, this study has three primary objectives: 1. Define and characterize a range of operating environments emanating from state fragility to support planning, preparedness, and response to national security crises. 2. Identify key tools that allow the U.S. government to operate effectively in these environ- ments when responding to national security crises or challenges. 3. Promote ways in which national security, humanitarian, and development efforts might better align, in the near and long term, in highly fragile and unstable operating environments. This report focuses on five functional security imperatives— humanitarian emergencies, terrorism and violent extremism, great power aggression, health security crises, and international criminal vio lence— and illustrates each imperative through regionally or subnationally defined operating environments— namely, Syria- Iraq, Libya, Eastern Ukraine, West Africa, and Mexico, respectively. Rather than using nations as the unit of analy sis, these case studies elucidate the structural and V 594-69657_ch00_3P.indd 5 5/20/17 1:03 PM institutional challenges to crisis responses that principally exist at the substate, trans- state, and regional levels. The territories chosen encompass fragile or unstable environments from near- total collapse to subregional weakness in other wise relatively strong states. CASE STUDIES Each case study describes the operating environment according to three essential characteristics adapted from fragility lit er a ture (authority, capacity, and security), lists key tasks to address the security imperative, and describes the current state of play and U.S. and international effortsunder way. Importantly, the case studies then point to those actors, tools, and circumstances that may offset or circumvent operational challenges and offer pathways for responding to the crises. The authors also make policy recommendations for how the United States can better operate in these specific environments and comparable future environments. Addressing a Humanitarian Crisis in a Collapsed Region (Syria- Iraq) Since the Syrian civil war began in 2011, at least 470,000 people have died, and tens of millions have sufferedunder siege, become internally displaced, or left the region as refugees traveling to bordering countries and across the sea to Eu rope. The propensity of the Bashar al- Assad govern- ment and the Islamic State to use aid as a coercive tool, the Islamic State (ISIS) and Jabhat Fateh al- Sham’s refusal to abide by humanitarian requests or international rules, and complicated partner dynamics have stymied U.S. attempts to deliver humanitarian assistance to the Syria- Iraq region. This case highlights the challenges of operating in highly insecure environments, including regions where national authority is absent, direct access is limited or non ex is tent, and more effective or legitimate sources of authority are highly localized and often transcend national borders. The United States may be able to take advantage of cease- fire- based win dows of opportunity of decreased vio lence, accessibility through perimeter regions, and a robust civil society to deliver aid to besieged populations in Syria and Iraq. Strong international outrage against the violation of humanitarian laws and norms also forms a basis for changing the rules of engagement to make such aid efforts pos si ble. Countering Terrorism and Violent Extremism (Libya) Over the last five years, Libya’s po liti cal instability and the outbreak of civil war provided conditions for a number of international and domestic extremist groups to establish themselves and operate with relative impunity. In late 2014, ISIS began to seize territory rapidly, amass resources, and unite fighters from Libya’s fractured extremist landscape. This case exemplifies the prob lem of denying extremist groups a secure base of operation and reducing their ability to or ga nize and conduct terrorist attacks when the region’s fragmented power limits U.S. abilities to partner with a national authority. Left with a fragile economic equilibrium utterly dependent on the central bank and only semi- legitimate po liti cal leaders with almost no real capacity to impose their will or act as mean- ingful conduits for outside assistance, the United States is being forced to create new ways to operate to achieve its objectives in Libya. In doing so, the United States may draw on both interna- tional and regional support for combating ISIS. Not only do Western powers and Libya’s neighbors VI Executive Summary 594-69657_ch00_3P.indd 6 5/20/17 1:03 PM recognize the threat posed by ISIS’s growth,
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