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KMC Cebu Office Briefing 2Q2020

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KMC Cebu Office Briefing 2Q2020 KMC Research Cebu Office Briefing 2Q 2020 Cebu | Office Briefing Cebu Business Districts Future Stock (2023) MAP 1 OAKRIDGE BUSINESS PARK CEBU CITY CEBU IT PARK NORKIS MANDAUE CITY CYBERPARK LAPU-LAPU CITY CORDOVA CEBU MANDANI BAY BUSINESS PARK CEBU ABOITIZ - AYALA DOWNTOWN BUSINESS PARK AREA NORTH MACTAN NEWTOWN RECLAMATION AREA SM - AYALA SOUTH JOINT VENTURE ROAD PROPERTIES SM SEASIDE CITY CEBU COMPLEX CITY DI MARE 505,623.0 sq m 437,499.1 sq m 362,640.8 sq m CEBU IT PARK CEBU BUSINESS PARK CEBU FRINGE Source: KMC Savills Research DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE (2019-2022) CURRENT STOCK TABLE 1 Key Figures - Grade A Office Cebu Business Cebu IT Cebu 2Q 2020 Unit Cebu Park Park Fringe PHP/sq m 601.9 625.9 518.3 587.1 Average net rental rate USD/sq ft 1.10 1.14 0.94 1.07 PHP/sq m 650.0 700.0 550.0 700.0 Upper net rental rate USD/sq ft 1.18 1.28 1.00 1.28 Vacancy rate (%) % 10.8% 14.2% 12.4% 12.4% Current stock (sq m) sq m 380,339.1 338,188.0 272,884.1 991,411.2 Development pipeline sq m 57,160.0 167,435.0 89,756.7 314,351.7 2020-2023 (sq m) Source: KMC Savills Research 2 2Q 2020 Cebu GRAPH 1 GRAPH 2 Stock & Vacancy Supply & Take-up Cebu Grade A Office Supply Cebu Grade A Office Stock Cebu Grade A Office Take-up Cebu Grade A Office Vacancy Rate 1,600 24% 160 120 1,200 18% 80 800 12% '000 sq m (GLA) 40 '000 sq m (GLA) 400 6% 0 0 0% -40 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020F 2021F 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020F 2021F Source: KMC Savills Research Source: KMC Savills Research GRAPH 3 GRAPH 4 Rental Performance Development Pipeline by District Cebu Fringe Cebu Business Park Cebu Rental Growth, YoY Cebu IT Park Cebu Grade A Office Rental Index 160 160 30% 140 20% 120 120 10% 100 0% 80 1Q 2009 = 100 1Q 2009 80 -10% '000 sq m (GLA) 60 -20% 40 40 -30% 0 2019 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F Source: KMC Savills Research Source: KMC Savills Research MARKET IN MINUTES ■ The effects of COVID-19 continued to have dire effects on the office market. The average vacancy rate in Cebu continued to rise, increasing to 12.4% in 2Q/2020. This is not an isolated case as 8,810 sq m and 12,527 sq m of new available office space opened up in CBP and CITP, respectively. Construction projects have also been delayed and are expected to be completed by 4Q/2020 at the earliest. ■ Cebu’s average rents worsened by 0.4% YoY to PHP 587.1 per sq m / month. Compared to the previous quarter, average rents in CBP have decreased by 0.6% to PHP 601.9 per sq m / month, while rents in CITP also declined by 0.9% to PHP 625.9 per sq m / month. However, the Cebu Fringe remained stable at PHP 518.3 per sq m / month in 2Q/2020. Continuing with this trend, we anticipate a downward repricing in the short-term if market conditions do not improve. ■ With the quarantine extending into 3Q/2020, there are early signs that locators may be rethinking their office space needs. Market absorption is expected to further decline in the coming quarters as gains from the previous quarter were erased. We expect Cebu’s average vacancy rate to reach 20.0% by the end of 2020. However, if overall conditions normalize later this year, we may still expect recovery to begin as early as 2021. kmcmaggroup.com/research | 3 KMC Savills, Inc. Please contact us for further information Michael McCullough Fredrick Rara Managing Director Senior Manager [email protected] Research and Consultancy [email protected] Melo Porciuncula Gerold Fernando Executive Director Executive Director Investor Services Transactions and Advisory Services [email protected] [email protected] Rosario Carbonell John Corpus Executive Director Executive Director Transactions and Advisory Services Transactions and Advisory Services [email protected] [email protected] Rita Kash Karen Golez Senior Director Senior Director Transactions and Advisory Services Transactions and Advisory Services [email protected] [email protected] Since 2009, KMC has provided clients with award-winning real estate services. KMC delivers world-class service strengthened with local market expertise. With over 200 employees involved directly in transactions for office, investments, industrial & hotel locators, as well as residential properties, KMC is a full-service real estate firm that has successfully become the leading local firm in the Philippine real estate services industry. This bulletin is for general information purposes only. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, KMC accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising. The bulletin is strictly copyright and reproduction of the whole or part of it in any form is prohibited without written permission from KMC..
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