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Süss Microtec Süss MicroTec Germany/ Technology Hardware & Equipment Post results note Investment Research 7 November 2014 Hold FY14e outlook in line – 4Q14 FCF most likely red from Accumulate Still waiting for 3D - Downgrade to ‘Hold’/PT EUR 5 Share price: EUR 4.65 The facts: Please remember that SMHN released preliminary figures already on closing price as of 06/11/2014 Target price: EUR 5.00 October 13, 2014. 3Q14 sales and order intake were already known as well as the Target Price unchanged order intake forecast for 4Q14. The EBIT came to EUR minus 3.3m in the quarter, but contained a c. EUR 1m severance amount. Consequently, the EBIT would have Reuters/Bloomberg SMHNn.DE/SMH GY been at EUR minus 2.3m on an adjusted basis and thus between our forecast of Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 396,450 EUR 1.5m and the consensus of EUR minus 2.8m. Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 1,883.66 Price high 12 mth (EUR) 9.15 We noted that the Litho segment sales were in line with our forecast of EUR 16m, Price low 12 mth (EUR) 3.90 while 3Q14 Bonders were weak at EUR 1.3m (equinet: EUR 2m) and Mask Cleaning Abs. perf. 1 mth 5.6% came to EUR 6.8m (EUR 6m). The Litho margin in 3Q14 was negative. Abs. perf. 3 mth -38.5% Management repeated the sales target of EUR 135-145m for the full year while the Abs. perf. 12 mth -41.8% EBIT expectation became now more concrete. Here, SMHN forecasts now EUR Market capitalisation (EURm) 89 2-4m (equinet: EUR 2.9m). Current N° of shares (m) 19 The contract of CFO Knopp was prolonged (before due) until July 2020. There was Free float 100% no news so far on the CEO search. Key financials (EUR) 12/13 12/14e 12/15e Main takeaways from the conference call: 1/The Litho margin was negative in Sales (m) 135 135 143 3Q14 due to coater and developer product line. SMHN admitted to have problems in EBITDA (m) (13) 7 10 the 300mm Advanced Packaging business. The competition with for example TEL EBITDA margin nm 5.3% 7.0% EBIT (m) (19) 3 6 remains fierce, partly exacerbated due to fx. SMHN is working on new products to EBIT margin nm 2.1% 4.2% improve customer total ownership. 2/The Tamarack top line is still quite small Net Profit (adj.)(m) (3) 2 4 (scanners and projection litho). Laser ablation is still in its infancy, but some tools ROCE -5.1% 2.6% 4.6% were implemented in the market. The development to be able to reach a broader Net debt/(cash) (m) (36) (31) (32) Net Debt Equity -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 customer based will take some time. However margins are promising here while Net Debt/EBITDA 2.7 -4.3 -3.2 scanner margins need to be improved. 3/We learned that the 4Q14 FCF might be Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin.int) (100.8) 31.8 79.8 slightly negative. CFO Knopp mentioned EUR minus 4m to EUR minus 7m for the EV/Sales 0.7 0.5 0.4 full year as possible without giving concrete guidance (9M14: EUR minus 4m) as EV/EBITDA nm 8.5 6.0 EV/EBITDA (adj.) nm 8.5 6.0 customer prepayments will look lighter at year end. Capex will nevertheless remain EV/EBIT nm 21.0 10.2 low at only EUR 2.5-2.8m. 4/Other operating expenses of EUR 1.7m (1H14: EUR P/E (adj.) nm nm 23.1 1m) were influenced by fx. 5/Advanced Packaging customers appear reluctant P/BV 1.1 0.8 0.8 OpFCF yield 17.8% -6.0% 0.3% as could be seen parallel to the Ultratech reporting. CFO Knopp expects however a Dividend yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% better development going forward. 6/As regards 3D Integration (temporary EPS (adj.) (0.15) 0.09 0.20 bonders), there appears still no real volume production (e.g. mobile) to happen BVPS 5.72 5.82 6.02 at the customer level. Only some high-end chip manufacturing is taking place. DPS 0.00 0.00 0.00 SMHN actually got 3D orders for certain process steps in the past quarters, but nothing comparable to Samsung’s evaluation bookings. CFO Knopp reminded that the initial 3D developments reach back into 2009. Originally the thinking was to realize vvdsvdvsdy 10 mass production in 2013. Now volume production seems not possible before 2016 9 and respective orders in the next 9 months are not visible. Obviously, the uncertainty 8 remains high. The problem seems to be that the technology appears still too 7 expensive. The TMAT process was deemed to be good again by the CFO in terms of 6 stability and yield. But precursor processes are too many yet. 7/CFO Knopp clarified 5 that the OPEX base is already low and the EBIT level can only improve through 4 higher sales/gross margin. The respective visibility for FY15e appears however not 3 Okt 13 Nov 13 Dez 13 Jan 14 Feb 14 Mrz 14 Apr 14 Mai 14 Jun 14 Jul 14 Aug 14 Sep 14 Okt 14 Nov 14 to be high, we reckon. Source: Factset SUESS MICROTEC Tec Dax (Rebased) Conclusion & Action: Based on a lack of current trigger, we lower our rating from Shareholders: ‘Accumulate’ to ‘Hold’. We confirm our PT on basically unchanged estimates. Analyst(s): Adrian Pehl, CFA +49 69 58997 438 [email protected] For important disclosure information, please refer to the disclaimer page of this report For company description please see summary table footnote Produced by: All ESN research is available on Bloomberg (“ESNR”), Thomson-Reuters, Capital IQ, FactSet Distributed by the Members of ESN (see last page of this report) Süss MicroTec Süss MicroTec: Summary tables PROFIT & LOSS (EURm) 12/2011 12/2012 12/2013 12/2014e 12/2015e 12/2016e Sales 175 164 135 135 143 156 Cost of Sales & Operating Costs -149 -147 -135 -128 -132 -142 Non Recurrent Expenses/Income -1.4 1.8 -13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 EBITDA 24.9 18.6 -13.4 7.2 10.0 14.5 EBITDA (adj.)* 26.3 16.8 -0.2 7.2 10.0 14.5 Depreciation -2.1 -2.2 -2.6 -2.6 -2.7 -2.8 EBITA 22.8 16.4 -16.0 4.7 7.4 11.7 EBITA (adj)* 24.2 14.6 -2.8 4.7 7.4 11.7 Amortisations and Write Downs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 of which PPA amortisation 0.0 -0.6 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 EBIT 18.6 11.7 -19.4 2.9 5.9 10.5 EBIT (adj.)* 20.0 10.5 -5.4 3.7 6.7 11.3 Net Financial Interest 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 Other Financials 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other Non Recurrent Items 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Earnings Before Tax (EBT) 19.6 11.8 -19.6 2.7 5.8 10.5 Tax -5.8 -4.1 3.6 -0.9 -2.0 -3.5 Tax rate 29.5% 35.2% 18.3% 35.0% 34.0% 33.0% Discontinued Operations 0.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Minorities -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net Profit (reported) 13.5 9.1 -16.0 1.7 3.8 7.0 Net Profit (adj.) 14.5 7.3 -2.8 1.7 3.8 7.0 CASH FLOW (EURm) 12/2011 12/2012 12/2013 12/2014e 12/2015e 12/2016e Cash Flow from Operations before change in NWC 18.4 14.7 -8.3 4.3 8.9 12.0 Change in Net Working Capital -16.6 -16.0 33.6 -6.8 -4.4 -5.4 Cash Flow from Operations 1.8 -1.3 25.3 -2.5 4.6 6.6 Capex -3.6 -4.2 -3.3 -2.8 -4.3 -4.7 Net Financial Investments 0.5 -6.0 -8.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 Free Cash Flow -1.4 -11.5 13.5 -5.3 0.3 2.0 Dividends 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other (incl. Capital Increase & share buy backs) 6.5 1.6 -10.4 0.6 0.4 0.4 Change in Net Debt 5.1 -9.9 3.1 -4.7 0.7 2.3 NOPLAT 14.1 6.8 -4.4 2.4 4.4 7.6 BALANCE SHEET & OTHER ITEMS (EURm) 12/2011 12/2012 12/2013 12/2014e 12/2015e 12/2016e Net Tangible Assets 9.5 12.1 20.9 20.2 21.1 22.2 Net Intangible Assets (incl.Goodwill) 22.2 22.9 19.8 19.1 18.4 17.9 Net Financial Assets & Other 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 Total Fixed Assets 32.3 35.8 41.3 39.8 40.0 40.7 Inventories 71.6 82.2 71.1 60.8 64.1 70.2 Trade receivables 17.8 21.8 11.1 16.2 17.1 18.7 Other current assets 8.9 3.5 8.9 8.5 8.9 9.3 Cash (-) -57.2 -37.1 -47.5 -41.8 -42.4 -44.8 Total Current Assets 155 145 139 127 133 143 Total Assets 188 180 180 167 173 184 Shareholders Equity 120 127 109 111 115 122 Minority 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total Equity 120 127 109 111 115 122 Long term interest bearing debt 4.3 4.0 10.3 9.3 9.3 9.3 Provisions 9.3 8.1 9.8 8.0 9.0 10.0 Other long term liabilities 27.2 30.5 34.7 22.1 22.1 24.0 Total Long Term Liabilities 40.8 42.5 54.8 39.4 40.4 43.3 Short term interest bearing debt 10.1 0.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 Trade payables 7.6 6.9 5.6 6.8 7.1 7.8 Other current liabilities 8.9 3.5 8.9 8.5 8.9 9.3 Total Current Liabilities 26.6 10.7 15.6 16.5 17.2 18.3 Total Liabilities and Shareholders' Equity 188 180 180 167 173 184 Net Capital Employed 114 133 118 110 114 122 Net Working Capital 63.4 79.4 45.9 52.7 57.0 62.4 GROWTH & MARGINS 12/2011 12/2012 12/2013 12/2014e 12/2015e 12/2016e Sales growth 26.1% -6.6% -17.9% 0.4% 5.6% 9.5% EBITDA (adj.)* growth 30.3% -36.3% n.m.
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