mobil.TUM 2014 Sustainable Mobility in Metropolitan Regions Munich, Germany - May 19-20, 2014

How to build an alternative to sprawl and auto- centric development model through a TOD scenario for the -Pas-de-Calais region? Lessons from an integrated transportation-land use modelling

Fausto Lo Feudo [email protected] PhD candidate in transport and urban planning mobil.TUM 2014 Sustainable Mobility in Metropolitan Regions introduction Munich, Germany - May 19-20, 2014

questions and objectives of research

land use and transport integration

Transit Oriented Development

Land Use and Transport Integrated modelling

Tranus model for Nord Pas de Calais () mobil.TUM 2014 Sustainable Mobility in Metropolitan Regions questions and objectives Munich, Germany - May 19-20, 2014

issues

Urban sprawl + 1800 ha/y of urbanised land Nord Pas de Calais 17% of total land in 2010 (France 9%) 66%

28% Car dependency 6%

CAR TRANSIT NON MOTORIZED strategies political objectives

Land use and transport + 500 ha/y of urbanised land by 2020 tool policies integration & double TER (regional railway service) coordination rate of frequentation LUTI Modelling (Tranus) research questions Transit Oriented does TOD make sense for the NPDC region? Development does a TOD regional plan limit urban sprawl and car dependency? mobil.TUM 2014 Sustainable Mobility in Metropolitan Regions land use and transport interaction Munich, Germany - May 19-20, 2014

accessibility

mobility choice attractiveness

f (factors of interaction, context) Transport Land Use

localisation density choice

activity system

cumulative and synergic effect of interaction factors (Litman, 2012) various temporalities (Wegener, 1999)

mobil.TUM 2014 Sustainable Mobility in Metropolitan Regions Transit Oriented Development Munich, Germany - May 19-20, 2014

• high density • functional mixing • priority to active mobility & PT • urban design quality mobil.TUM 2014 Sustainable Mobility in Metropolitan Regions Transit Oriented Development Munich, Germany - May 19-20, 2014

from a car oriented paradigm to...

• physically transit oriented and not just adjacent (Cervero, 2012) • multi-modal and polycentric development (Litman, 2012) • tool to promote rail use (Nuzzolo 2010; Leysens, L’Hostis, 2011) • TOD to reinforce node and place function (Bertolini, 1999)

sharing and acceptance of TOD principles (concept interpretation ) different solutions for different contexts (transferability & adaptation) obstacles: institutional and operational barriers (coordination) time factor and gentrification (equity)

Source: ITDP Mexico mobil.TUM 2014 Sustainable Mobility in Metropolitan Regions LUTI modelling Munich, Germany - May 19-20, 2014

implementation evaluate applicability and effects of a TOD regional plan in NPDC of a LUTI model

a land use and transport integrated model is a theorized and formalized representation to analyze a territory in its spatial, economic and social aspects. (Laurent, 2012)

implementation (hypothesis) base scenario futur and calibration (observed data) simulations execution

observed data ≠ calculated data mobil.TUM 2014 Sustainable Mobility in Metropolitan Regions LUTI modelling Munich, Germany - May 19-20, 2014

classic models: exogenous land use data

time t 1 time t 2 time t 3

activities activities activities location and location and location and land use land use land use

transport transport transport system system system

LUTI models: land use data generated by the model

time t 1 time t 2 time t 3

activities activities activities location and location and location and land use land use land use

transport transport transport system system system mobil.TUM 2014 Sustainable Mobility in Metropolitan Regions tranus Munich, Germany - May 19-20, 2014 integration of various theoretical approaches: spatial macro economics (Von Thunen); gravity and entropy models (Lowry); input-output model (Leontief); random utility model (McFadden); path choice algorithm (Dijkstra)

aggregated model - based on equilibrium between supply and demand

land use and activities interface transport interactions conversion of demand distribution, between activities economic flux in modal share and and economic transport flux congestion sectors (input-output)

equilibrium factor equilibrium factor PRICE TIME mobil.TUM 2014 Sustainable Mobility in Metropolitan Regions Nord Pas de Calais tranus model Munich, Germany - May 19-20, 2014

model hypothesis inspired by regional planning strategies promote urban densification near transit and rail network; improve territorial attractiveness; make the regional a railway European hub; promote transit use

base scenario: 2009 (national census data) time horizons: 2013 – 2017 – 2021 - 2025 scenario A «Trend Scenario» scenario B « Regional TOD Plan »: progressive densification in selected rail corridors and nodes (TOD zones) improvement of PT frequencies: + 10% at 2017 and 2021; + 20% at 2025) scenario C « Regional TOD Plan + transit use incentives »: progressive densification near selected rail corridors and nodes (TOD zones) improvement of PT frequencies: + 20% at 2017 and 2021; + 30% at 2025) Integrated tariff (bus and rail) Introduction of a tool for highways (0.08 €/km) mobil.TUM 2014 Sustainable Mobility in Metropolitan Regions Nord Pas de Calais Tranus model Munich, Germany - May 19-20, 2014

Zoning

nr. of type zones Main cities 16 Municipalities of 24 agglomerationZoning (LMCU) TOD zones 21 Rest of regional territories 15 (employement zones ) mobil.TUM 2014 Sustainable Mobility in Metropolitan Regions TOD potential rail corridors Munich, Germany - May 19-20, 2014

rail station district Armentieres insertion in urban fabric integrated two-headed fragmented (Van der Poorten & Nedellec, 2013) rail station not urbanised urbanised Comines Quesnoy-sur-Doule Saint Armand Les Eaux Brébiere-Vitry-Corbehem Lillers-Choques Dunkerque Hénin Beaumont -Sanghin Loos-Lievin-Bully - -Libercourt Aulnoye -Somain- mobil.TUM 2014 Sustainable Mobility in Metropolitan Regions structure of the model Munich, Germany - May 19-20, 2014

Households categories High Income Medium Income Low Income

Exogenous O/D matrix Transport categories Home to work Home to service External trips trucks

Activity sectors Industry/constructions Tertiary service Tertiary public

Transport system physical supply operative supply transport demand behaviours (infrastructures) (PT services) (preferences, value of travel & waiting time, ect.)

Land Use types available land monthly rental price (par type and zone)

Rural/detached mobil.TUM 2014 Sustainable Mobility in Metropolitan Regions structure of the model Munich, Germany - May 19-20, 2014

Households categories Activity sectors High income consumes consumes Industry/construction Medium income Activity sectors Tertiary Service Low income Industry/construction Tertiary Public Tertiary Service

Tertiary Public Land use Land use

Activity zone Activity zone

Mixed residential Mixed residential

Residential ResidentialTerrain

Collective residential Collective residential

Rural residential Rural residential

Time t 1 Time t 2 Time t 3 mobil.TUM 2014 Sustainable Mobility in Metropolitan Regions hypothesis TOD scenario Munich, Germany - May 19-20, 2014

Progressive densification

5% in 15% in 20% in 2017 2021 2025

Urban mixed

5% in 10% in 15% in 2017 2021 2025

Urban TOD mixed land

15% in 25% in 35% in 2017 2021 2025

density TOD land = + 10/15% rail station (Saint Armand les Eaux) higher than urban mixed land mobil.TUM 2014 Sustainable Mobility in Metropolitan Regions land use results - households Munich, Germany - May 19-20, 2014

Scenario A - 2025

Scenario B - 2025 Scenario C - 2025

Scale 1:750000 mobil.TUM 2014 Sustainable Mobility in Metropolitan Regions land use results - jobs Munich, Germany - May 19-20, 2014

Scenario A - 2025

Scenario B - 2025 Scenario C - 2025

Scale 1:750000 mobil.TUM 2014 Sustainable Mobility in Metropolitan Regions land use results – land prices Munich, Germany - May 19-20, 2014

Scenario A - 2025

Scenario B - 2025 Scenario C - 2025

Scale 1:750000 mobil.TUM 2014 Sustainable Mobility in Metropolitan Regions land use results – land consumption Munich, Germany - May 19-20, 2014

CONSUMED LAND

2009 2025A 2025B 2025C urban mixed (ha) 4000

2000

0 Industry Tertiary Service Tertiary Public HIH MIH LIH

detached land (ha) 10000

5000

0 HIH MIH LIH

residential land (ha) 40000

20000

0 Ind-Costr Ter Serv Ter Pub HIH MIH LIH mobil.TUM 2014 transport results – modal share Sustainable Mobility in Metropolitan Regions Munich, Germany - May 19-20, 2014

modal share 92% 89% 86% 84%

16% 8% 11% 14%

2009 2025 A 2025 B 2025 C

Rush hour Simulation 7h – 9h Car Transit Home – Work Home – Service

30000 train and bus trips 19910 20000 10666 10000

0 2009 2025 A 2025 B 2025 C TRAIN BUS mobil.TUM 2014 transport results – modal share Sustainable Mobility in Metropolitan Regions Munich, Germany - May 19-20, 2014

evolution of car and PT number of trips CAR 2025 A CAR 2025 B CAR 2025 C PT 2025 A PT 2025 B PT 2025 C

223%

151% 136% 113% 95% 72% 64% 75% 46% 49% 22% 34% 33% 25% 25% 7% 7%

-17% -18% -10% -18% -20% -9% -18% LMCU TOD RURAL CITIES

evolution number of trips by trains Evolution number of trips by bus

2025 A 2025 B 2025 C 2025 A 2025 B 2025 C

245% 236%

161% 143% 131% 120% 115% 99% 97% 100% 81% 75% 81% 57% 47% 58% 47% 45% 45% 47% 44% 37% 31% 34%

LMCU TOD RURAL CITIES LMCU TOD RURAL CITIES mobil.TUM 2014 Sustainable Mobility in Metropolitan Regions transport results – TOD zones Munich, Germany - May 19-20, 2014

modal share in TOD zones

TOD Armentieres TOD Fretin TOD Haubourdin TOD Lesquin TOD Seclin TOD Comines TOD Quesnoy-sur-Doule

TOD Orchies TOD Armand Les Eaux TOD Brébiere-Vitry-Corbehem TOD Lillers-Choques TOD Ostricourt TOD Dunkerque TOD Hénin Beaumont

TOD Bauvin-Sanghin TOD Loos-Lievin-Bully TOD Santes-Wavrin TOD Phalempin-Libercourt TOD Hautmont TOD Aulnoye TOD Denain-Somain- Bouchain

2009 CAR 2009 Transit 2025 A CAR 2025 A Transit 2025B CAR 2025B Transit 2025 C CAR 2025 C Transit mobil.TUM 2014 Sustainable Mobility in Metropolitan Regions transport results – level of service Munich, Germany - May 19-20, 2014

Base scenario 2009 2025 scenario C mobil.TUM 2014 Sustainable Mobility in Metropolitan Regions transport results – level of service Munich, Germany - May 19-20, 2014

Base scenario 2009

A25

A1

Car became again 2025 C more attractive

A25 than PT mobil.TUM 2014 Sustainable Mobility in Metropolitan Regions conclusions Munich, Germany - May 19-20, 2014

about results:

• show an increase of sprawl without specific contrasting policies • TOD regional plan (scenario B and C) induces a limitation of sprawl and of car use • TOD effects increase if associated with policies that discourage car use and improve transit performance (scenario C) • land prices evolution confirms TOD capacity of value capture • TOD effects are more evident in zones with a basic economic and productive dynamism with significant initial land and transport demand (rail corridors Lille – ; Lille – Lens - Bethune) about modelling:

• complexity about the multi – scalar and regional approach (different densities and land uses for different territorial scales) • complexity about modelling TOD • Limits related to aggregated zoning (good for global analysis, less for punctual analysis) • calibration and output analysis (need of time and of a multidisciplinary approach) • Tranus confirms is consistence in multi - scalar and regional modelling thanks a lot for your attention!

Contact: [email protected] mobil.TUM 2014 Sustainable Mobility in Metropolitan Regions Nord Pas de Calais Tranus model Munich, Germany - May 19-20, 2014 mobil.TUM 2014 Sustainable Mobility in Metropolitan Regions Nord Pas de Calais Tranus model Munich, Germany - May 19-20, 2014