Israel and the Middle East News Update

Monday, March 9

Headlines:  More than 50,000 People Attend “ Wants Change” Rally on Sat. Night  Netanyahu Attacked by Right Wing and Left Wing for Concessions Document  Netanyahu: Bar-Ilan Two-State Speech No Longer Relevant  Zionist Union Platform Aims to Set Israel's Final Borders  In Case of Election Tie, President to Push Unity Government  Defense Minister Ya’alon: English Speakers Trying to Topple Netanyahu  Iran Deal Won’t Expire After a Decade, Senior US Official Says

Commentary:  Ha’aretz: “In Special Interview to Ari Shavit, Herzog Declares: I Am Going to Form Next Government”  By Ari Shavit  Los Angeles Times: “For Its Survival, Israel Must Abandon the One State Option”  By Amos Oz 

S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace 633 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, 5th Floor, Washington, DC 20004 www.centerpeace.org ● Yoni Komorov, Editor ● Nathaniel Sobel, Associate Editor

News Excerpts March 9, 2015 Ma’ariv More than 50,000 People Came to Demand Change More than 50,000 , a great many of them young people, showed up last night at Rabin Square, waved their hands, flags and signs and called for “change,” in other words —to replace the government. The “weapon” of the demonstrators was an impassioned and fierce speech by former Mossad director Meir Dagan who said: “Israel is a country surrounded by enemies, but the enemies do not scare me—I am scared of our leadership, by the absence of vision and the loss of a path. By the hesitance and the impasse. And above all, I am scared by the crisis of leadership, which is the worst there has ever been until today.” He fiercely attacked Netanyahu and said: “We have a leader who is fighting only one battle: the battle for his own political survival. In the name of this war, he is causing us to decline to a bi-national state and to the end of the Zionist dream.” See also, “Ex-Mossad chief at anti-Netanyahu rally: Our leadership scares me more than our enemies” (JPost) See also, “Tens of thousands fill Rabin Square for anti-Netanyahu rally” (Times of Israel)

Yedioth Ahronoth Netanyahu Attacked by Right & Left for Concessions Document The document revealed by Nahum Barnea on Friday, showing for the first time what the prime minister was willing to give the Palestinians in a peace agreement, caused a great uproar in the political establishment. Binyamin Netanyahu was attacked by both the right wing and the left wing for the surprising concessions detailed in the document, and for the gap between his public statements and what happened behind the scenes. Jewish Home Chairman Naftali Bennett fiercely attacked the prime minister: “The document is real, the facts are correct,” he said. “The masked ball is over. The next disengagement is already here and it is again being led by the Likud and by Tzipi Livni. The 2015 elections have become a referendum on the establishment of Palestine in the 1967 borders.” See also, “Netanyahu says Israel won't cede land to Palestinians, despite reports, docs claiming otherwise” (Ynet)

Ha’aretz Netanyahu: Bar-Ilan Two-State Speech No Longer Relevant Prime Minister declared on Sunday that the "Bar Ilan speech," from June 2009, in which he expressed support for creating a "demilitarized Palestinian state that would recognize the Jewish state," is no longer relevant, in light of the current reality in the Middle East. Netanyahu made the statement at a Likud party press briefing. The questions were submitted to the Likud campaign in the wake of a statement that appeared this weekend in a weekly Shabbat pamphlet that contained the stances of each political party on creating a Palestinian state. "The Prime Minister announced that the Bar-Ilan speech is null and void," read the message in the pamphlet, continuing, "Netanyahu's entire political biography is a fight against the creation of a Palestinian state." See also, “Netanyahu: Creation of Palestinian state ‘irrelevant’” (Times of Israel) See also, “Netanyahu denies Likud claim he’s backed away from two-state solution” (Times of Israel)

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Jerusalem Post Zionist Union Platform Aims to Set Israel's Final Borders The Zionist Union will begin a major diplomatic initiative aimed at setting the permanent borders of Israel if its leader Isaac Herzog forms the next government after the March 17 election, according to the party’s diplomatic platform, which he launched Sunday in Tel Aviv. The platform says a diplomatic settlement is in Israel’s primary interests and a condition for ensuring its future as a Jewish and democratic state that enjoys wide international support. “The Zionist Union will act to formulate a diplomatic settlement and to determine secure and permanent borders for the State of Israel as a Jewish and democratic state by launching a diplomatic and security initiative,” the platform says.

Times of Israel In Case of Election Tie, President to Push Unity Government With nine days left before the elections, and the two major parties neck and neck in the polls, President Reuven Rivlin told Channel 2 Sunday that he will call on Likud and the Zionist Union to form a national unity government in the event of a tie. The dual-party government will then push for legislation on electoral reform, Rivlin said, to amend the instability inherent in the current system, where larger parties have to court smaller parties in order to cobble together a rickety ruling coalition.

Ha’aretz Ya'alon: English Speakers Trying to Topple Netanyahu Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon on Sunday accused "English-speakers" of orchestrating a massive effort to get out the vote among left-wing and Arab Israelis. Speaking at the Interdisciplinary Center in Herzliya, Ya'alon said, "There is an unprecedented campaign here to encourage left-wing and Arab voters, and English-speakers are the ones doing it. There are non-profit organizations here that are funded by foreign money – European money and other groups that don't want to see Netanyahu [anymore]." Ya'alon's remarks echo similar comments from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu just days ago, in which he accused a "coalition" of forces of trying to increase voter turnout among Arabs and Israeli leftists on March 17.

Times of Israel

Iran Deal Won’t Expire After a Decade, Senior US Official Says The prospective nuclear agreement with Iran will not be limited to a decade, a senior US official said Sunday, rebuffing claims made by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Briefing Israeli correspondents, the senior US official emphasized that the deal the six world powers are trying to sign with Iran will not be limited to a decade but will included several phases that will continue for “way more than a decade.” “We will not allow Iran to go nuclear,” the senior official said. Washington is keenly aware of the catastrophic consequences of Tehran acquiring nuclear weapons and will therefore do everything to prevent such a scenario, the official said. “We can reach a long-term agreement that will distance Iran from a nuclear weapon, an agreement that will last more than a decade, an agreement that will be better than a military strike,” the official said. See also, “Senators warn Iran nuke deal may expire when Obama leaves” (Times of Israel) 3

Ha’aretz – March 9, 2015 In special interview to Ari Shavit, Herzog declares: I am going to form next government Zionist Union’s co-chair says he has spent his life surprising people who have written him off. Can he pull off the biggest shock of all and become Israel’s next premier? By Ari Shavit  Is the man sitting next to me going to be the next prime minister of Israel? Does he have a chance of replacing Benjamin Netanyahu, forming a different government and setting Israel on a new path?  Isaac Herzog has no doubts. I have always been surprising, he says. It was always said of me that I did not have the ability, yet I proved that I had it. When I was appointed social welfare minister [in 2007], they said, “What does this kid from Tzahala [an upscale Tel Aviv suburb] know about social welfare?”  But two weeks later they went very quiet, and a year later they saw the results – a revolution in the social-welfare services. Then, when I ran for leadership of the Labor Party, they said, “He has no charisma, no chance against Shelly Yacimovich.” But I worked with people and connected people, and the outcome spoke for itself. And when I said a year ago that I would be the alternative to Netanyahu’s government, they laughed at me, pooh-poohed me and said, “What is Bougie talking about?”  But the moment the campaign started, and the moment the connection with Tzipi [Livni] was created, everything changed. You will see it for yourself shortly – the smell of profound political change is in the air. There is extraordinary momentum throughout the country. More and more people realize Zionist Union is going to win this election, and that I am going to form the next government. Just as I surprised everyone in the past, I am going to surprise everyone this time, too. This moment is my moment.  The muddied, tightly-packed jeep of opposition leader Isaac Herzog leaves the home where he grew up and where he now lives with his wife Michal and their three children: Noam, 26; Matan, 22; and Roey, 15. The view through the window changes constantly: the villas of Tzahala, the Ramat Hasharon Tennis Center, Kafr Qasem. From this close up, Herzog, 54, seems a bit more grown up than he looks on the television screen, and a bit less heroic than he looked in the legendary photograph produced by media adviser Reuven Adler.  Even though God blessed him with the genes of Peter Pan, his face has its first wrinkles. With his dark blue knit shirt, dark blue jacket and beige glasses, he does not look like a bar-mitzvah boy who is running for president, but rather an important, contemplative person who stays surprisingly cool even in troubled times. Is he a levelheaded, responsible leader? We will talk about the leader part later in the day, but he is definitely levelheaded and responsible. He is a skilled and sophisticated politician with a steel jaw of unbounded ambition behind his cute baby teeth.

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 I ask him: Do you really think you can be prime minister? Are you strong enough? Do you have the inner resources you will need to withstand the terrible pressure that is applied to the lone room at the end of the corridor in ? The prime minister of Israel has the toughest job in the world, after all, and you are perceived as a spoiled softy from the Herzog, Fox & Neeman law office in north Tel Aviv.  People are wrong about me, Herzog replies. Because of my appearance, my voice and my background, they do not realize whom they are dealing with. I am much stronger than people think. I have inner strength and perseverance. I also have high emotional intelligence. I work hard; I am serious, a thinker and a compulsive reader.  Over the 25 years I have been in politics, I have accumulated experience that few possess. I was minister of housing, social welfare and tourism. I was cabinet secretary and a member of the security cabinet, and I am head of the opposition. I have taken part in making crucial decisions. When the archives are opened, it will be seen that I was quite assertive in the most sensitive debates that took place here. I asked questions, probed and thought, but in the end I was more daring than the decorated generals and heads of the Shin Bet security service, with their great reputations. Extraordinary roots  Isaac Herzog was born in 1960, in Tel Aviv. His grandfather, Yitzhak HaLevi Herzog, was the first Ashkenazi of the State of Israel. His father, , was the head of the ’ Military Intelligence, UN ambassador and the sixth (1983-1993). His mother, Aura Herzog, established the Council for a Beautiful Israel. One of his uncles was Yaakov Herzog, the legendary director general of the Prime Minister’s Office and ambassador. Another uncle was Abba Eban. Through the window we see Wadi Ara, the Jezreel Valley and the Harod Valley. A telephone call comes from Livni. A telephone call comes from Adler.  I am fighting against a clever and sophisticated person who cannot take criticism, Herzog says of Netanyahu. He has been dragged, in a state of hysteria, into dangerous corners. He is damaging basic principles of Israeli statesmanship. He is endangering the Jewish democratic state. He is wearing down the most important strategic asset we possess: our alliance with the United States. And he drips fear. He drips fear all the time. We have never had a prime minister who terrified his nation as much as “Bibi” does.  OK, I say. We get it, you will not be voting for Netanyahu. But what alternative do you propose? What kind of prime minister are you going to be?  A workaholic, Herzog says with a smile. A prime minister who works hard but quietly. Calmly. A prime minister who does not just talk about threats, but also provides hope. A prime minister who thinks not only of himself, but also of his citizens. A prime minister who constantly remembers the people who live here, and the pain and hardship that exist here. But also a prime minister who is familiar with the magnificent mosaic of Israeli society and can appreciate and connect all its parts. I will act with sober judgment. I will work harmoniously with the professional echelon. In less than a year after I become prime minister, Israel will be a different country: calm, soothed, sane.

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 Those are lovely words, I tell Herzog. Truly lovely words. But give me meat. Give me concrete statements. What are the first five things you will do if you are elected?  First I will visit my father’s grave, Herzog says, without missing a beat. Then I will carry out the Trajtenberg program that will create fundamental and comprehensive socioeconomic change here [originally proposed by economist Manuel Trajtenberg following the social protests of 2011; Trajtenberg is also Zionist Union’s candidate for finance minister]. I will go to Washington and meet with President Obama and turn over a new leaf with him. I will go to Cairo and meet with President [Abdel-Fattah] al-Sissi and see whether he can get [Palestinian President] Mahmoud Abbas back on track with the peace process. And I will make a gesture to the Arab population. Maybe I will appoint an Arab minister. I will show that the time of disunity and internal rift is over, and that a time of healing and reconciliation has begun. A surprise in Beit She’an  But in order to do all those wonderful things, one must first win an election. And as we drive into Beit She’an, I am still asking myself whether Herzog has got what it takes, whether he is capable of doing the impossible: defeating Benjamin Netanyahu and forming a center/center- left government.  What kind of reception awaits the prince from Tzahala in Beit She’an, a Likudnik city in northern Israel?  One of friendly indifference. What characterizes Herzog’s visit to Beit She’an is the surprising fact that he arouses no opposition. In previous election campaigns, the Labor candidate could not set foot here without arousing hatred and a riot breaking out. But 2015 is different. Zionist Union is different. Isaac Herzog is different. And when he visits Beit She’an’s Likud mayor, Rafael Ben-Shitrit, and asks for his blessing, he does not get a positive answer. However, he does not encounter hostility either. When he embarks on a lightning tour of the open-air market and asks for support, he does not garner enthusiasm, but nor does he arouse opposition.  Netanyahu has made himself abhorrent even to the most die-hard Likudniks. Likud has weakened dramatically, even in its strongest bastions. And Zionist Union’s brand is a stroke of genius that has defused much of the traditional hostility. So when Herzog’s team of cheerleaders descend upon Beit She’an’s open-air market with a chant of “Hoo, hah, who is this? It’s the next prime minister!”, it cuts through the place like a knife through butter. And when the Zionist Union jingle plays loudly in Likud’s greatest stronghold, no one comes out against it. “Only suckers buy what Bibi sells,” the loudspeaker shouts at full volume. “Bibi is screwing all of us – on housing, vegetables, fruit.” We are creating a political turnabout, promise Zionist Union. And Herzog goes from vendor to vendor, shopper to shopper, asking them their names and how they are doing, promising that it can be different, promising that he is their hope.  You really like that, I tell him when he comes back to the jeep. I love it, he says, smiling. It’s not the hoo-hah-who-is-this march. It’s the people, he says. The contact with people. I am really a people person. I really like people, and they feel it. I’m not sure we collected a lot of votes here, but we proved that we’re here. Even in this city.

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 So is there hope? Labor has had only two winners since the political revolution of 1977 [when the Left lost power for the first time in the state’s history]: Yitzhak Rabin and Ehud Barak. Herzog is not Rabin, or even Barak. He did not unify Jerusalem, free the hostages in Entebbe or stand in white overalls on the wing of a Sabena aircraft (as Barak did during the storming of a hijacked plane in May 1972).  But the array of powers that works in Herzog’s favor is often reminiscent of the one that brought Netanyahu down in 1999. The left wing is mobilized and determined this time, too. Also this time, the right wing is fragmented and confused. The anti-Sheldon Adelsons are generous in their financial support. The media is doing all it can to smear Netanyahu. And there is the state comptroller’s report about excess spending at the prime minister’s residences. Plus the state comptroller’s report about the housing crisis. The recording of Sara Netanyahu (criticizing the former mayor of Sderot and extolling the virtues of her husband), the damning statement of former Mossad chief Meir Dagan, lobbying group V15. They are storming Netanyahu’s Bastille from all directions, trying to make its walls tumble down.  As darkness descends over the Valley, the latest poll predictions come in. Likud is down one seat, Zionist Union is up one, and Yesh Atid is growing stronger. Four different parties are gnawing on Bibi’s liver at the same time, says Herzog: Naftali Bennett’s Habayit Hayehudi; ’s Yisrael Beiteinu; Arye Dery’s Shas; and Eli Yishai’s Yahad. If this trend continues, Likud will shrink, creating the gap of three to four seats I need so that President Reuven Rivlin will have no alternative but to offer me the task of forming the government.  And if I receive the mandate, says Herzog, I will fulfill it. I am the only person in the political system who can work simultaneously with the ultra-Orthodox, the Russians, the Arabs and the left wing. Personally, most of the leaders of the small- to medium-centrist parties [Yesh Atid, ] prefer me. So all I need is the chance. If enough people will trust me, I am confident I will not disappoint them.  … We arrive back at where we began: the house on Tzahal Street. I am traveling the length and breadth of the country, Herzog says. I know and love Israeli society, and I serve it. And I am always looking for the middle path, like Maimonides.  I am a social democrat who wants both a free market and a just state. I am a pragmatist who tries to act fairly. I try to bring the contradictions into harmony and unity. So I believe that some form of normalcy will be restored if I am elected, and national dignity as well. My grandfather Yitzhak, for whom I am named, wrote the prayer for welfare of the State of Israel. And that prayer is so right: Spread over it [the State of Israel] Your tabernacle of peace; send good counsel to [Israel’s] ministers and advisers. Grandfather never guessed that his son would be president and that his grandson would be a leading candidate for prime minister. But his words are engraved within me. I detest flowery language. I am a practical person. But I am a true Zionist, for all that. I get tears in my eyes when I hear “Hatikva.” And I believe we can come back to a of normalcy. If I succeed in bringing this long campaign to its goal, there will be a different country here. Israel will become reconciled with itself.

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Los Angeles Times – March 7, 2015 For its Survival, Israel Must Abandon the One-State Option By Amos Oz  Let's start with a matter of life and death. If there are not two states, there will be one. If there is one, it will be Arab. If Arab it is, there is no telling the fate of our children and theirs.  One Arab state from Jordan to the Mediterranean. Not a binational state. For to expect Palestinians and Israelis, having inflicted so much pain on each other for so long, to suddenly turn a page onto harmonious, co-equal cohabitation in one state seems delusional.  Thus, absent two states, and as equality in binationalism is a fantasy, the prospects of one Arab state undoing our Zionist dream looms large.  In an attempt to delay it, the land from the river to the sea might be governed by a zealot Jewish dictatorship, characterized by racial fanaticism, forcing its will on both an Arab majority and Jewish opponents. It would face international boycott, internal bloodbath or both, until it was forced to give way to the inevitable: one Arab state.  So what about a two-state solution? Many argue that it cannot happen on this side of the horizon. To them Yasser Arafat was too strong and mean for such a solution, and his reasonable and thoughtful successor, Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas, is too weak. Hence, they preach keeping the two-state option alive via “conflict management.”  Alas, last summer we experienced the meaning of “conflict management.” It sentences us to the next war, and the one to follow; to the next Gaza war, and the many to follow; as well as to a third, fourth and fifth Intifada in Jerusalem and the West Bank, all spilling over to our streets. The resulting collapse of the Palestinian Authority would mean the emergence of Hamas or a more extreme successor, with untold casualties on both sides. That is what “conflict management” is all about.  Instead, conflict resolution deserves a closer look. In the last 100 years there has been no more promising moment for ending the conflict than today's.  It is not that our neighbors have converted to Zionism. Nor have they suddenly endorsed our right to this land. But the major regional players — Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, others in the region as well as in North Africa — face a destructive threat that is commonly recognized as far more ominous than Israel. Both Iran and Islamic State are responsible for sleepless nights in the capitals of these states. Against this backdrop Israel is now perceived as part of the solution, if cooperation with us can be legitimized by ending the occupation and addressing Palestinian aspirations for statehood.  Twelve years ago we were presented with the Saudi Peace Initiative, later endorsed (with some modifications) by the Arab League. I do not suggest embracing it as is. But engaging the Saudis and others in a discussion of our reservations with this historic reversal of the old rejectionist Arab position is long overdue. It would open the door to two states and regional security.

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 An inescapable truth — however controversial — is that the 1967 Six Day War was our last decisive victory. For in war the victor is not necessarily he who inflicts greater destruction but he who obtains his objectives. Having set no political objectives for recent wars we could neither expect nor claim victory, and the absence of objectives reflects a reality in which none of our national objectives are attainable by force.  This is not to say that military force is useless. Quite the contrary: It is essential for our survival. Indeed, all too often it has shielded us from destruction. But let us not confuse legitimate self defense — where there can be no compromises — with the illusion of forcefully imposing our political will on others.  And yet our policy is still designed to impose our will by force. By the 100th anniversary of this failed notion, it is time to recognize its arrogance and futility.  Settlers and their supporters at home and abroad tell us that this land is ours by right. What is that right when much of the world — most of the Arab world included — recognizes our right to the State of Israel within the “green line” but uniformly rejects our right to the rest? When it recognizes the right of Palestinians to a state next to ours but dismisses demands for more?  The settlers and their extreme counterparts among Palestinians fail to recognize that rights — however divine — that muster no international legitimacy, belong in the prayer book, not on the national agenda.  Now there is an effort to dictate policy to the United States, regardless of consequences to our most important strategic alliance.  Yet David Ben-Gurion drew the correct conclusion when he taught us that the state of Israel should never find itself without a strong global ally. Today, solid though our alliance with the U.S. is, its durability is not unconditional. It requires nurturing. It certainly must not be subjected to repeated malicious challenges.  In this context we must distinguish the permanent from the transitory. Our alliance with America is transitory. It is incumbent upon us to constantly invest in perpetuating it. On the other hand, our presence next to the Palestinians and in the midst of the Arab world are permanent features of our reality and should inform our choices.  Likewise, the potency of hostile forces — from terrorists to nuclear powers — will change. Thus the superiority of our defense capacity must be permanent. And nothing is more destructive to our security than going it alone, uniting the international community against us and undermining our alliance with the U.S.  Conversely, leading a dynamic peace effort with our Palestinian neighbors under the wing of the Arab Peace Initiative could go a long way in forging a supportive international and regional coalition and in defusing tension in the territories, all contributing to national security.  I am not naive. Peace is no toy resting on a shelf for us just to reach out to have. It is not simply the reluctance of Yitzhak Rabin, Ehud Barak or Ehud Olmert to pay the price that thus far has deprived us of it. Our Palestinian counterparts contributed plenty to past failures. Indeed, there is enough blame to be shared by all involved, third parties and sponsors included.

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 Consequently, I promise no quick fix, no easy implementation. I empathize with the legitimate fears of millions of Israelis who recognize the need for parting but do not trust the Palestinians for providing security. But I anticipate grave consequences if we don't part with the Palestinians. For I cannot reiterate enough: It is either two states by choice or one — Arab — state by default. Israeli writer Amos Oz is the co-author of "Jews and Words" and the author of many other works of fiction and nonfiction. This piece was edited and translated to English by Nimrod Novik.

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