Deterrence, Assured Retaliation Capability- an Analysis on India’S Second-Strike Policy
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Massive Retaliation Charles Wilson, Neil Mcelroy, and Thomas Gates 1953-1961
Evolution of the Secretary of Defense in the Era of MassiveSEPTEMBER Retaliation 2012 Evolution of the Secretary OF Defense IN THE ERA OF Massive Retaliation Charles Wilson, Neil McElroy, and Thomas Gates 1953-1961 Special Study 3 Historical Office Office of the Secretary of Defense Cold War Foreign Policy Series • Special Study 3 Evolution of the Secretary of Defense in the Era of Massive Retaliation Evolution of the Secretary of Defense in the Era of Massive Retaliation Charles Wilson, Neil McElroy, and Thomas Gates 1953-1961 Cover Photos: Charles Wilson, Neil McElroy, Thomas Gates, Jr. Source: Official DoD Photo Library, used with permission. Cover Design: OSD Graphics, Pentagon. Cold War Foreign Policy Series • Special Study 3 Evolution of the Secretary of Defense in the Era of Massive Retaliation Evolution of the Secretary OF Defense IN THE ERA OF Massive Retaliation Charles Wilson, Neil McElroy, and Thomas Gates 1953-1961 Special Study 3 Series Editors Erin R. Mahan, Ph.D. Chief Historian, Office of the Secretary of Defense Jeffrey A. Larsen, Ph.D. President, Larsen Consulting Group Historical Office Office of the Secretary of Defense September 2012 ii iii Cold War Foreign Policy Series • Special Study 3 Evolution of the Secretary of Defense in the Era of Massive Retaliation Contents Opinions, conclusions, and recommendations expressed or implied within are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the Department of Defense, the Historical Office of the Office of Foreword..........................................vii the Secretary of Defense, Larsen Consulting Group, or any other agency of the Federal Government. Executive Summary...................................ix Cleared for public release; distribution unlimited. -
Report: the New Nuclear Arms Race
The New Nuclear Arms Race The Outlook for Avoiding Catastrophe August 2020 By Akshai Vikram Akshai Vikram is the Roger L. Hale Fellow at Ploughshares Fund, where he focuses on U.S. nuclear policy. A native of Louisville, Kentucky, Akshai previously worked as an opposition researcher for the Democratic National Committee and a campaign staffer for the Kentucky Democratic Party. He has written on U.S. nuclear policy and U.S.-Iran relations for outlets such as Inkstick Media, The National Interest, Defense One, and the Quincy Institute’s Responsible Statecraft. Akshai holds an M.A. in International Economics and American Foreign Policy from the Johns Hopkins University SAIS as well as a B.A. in International Studies and Political Science from Johns Hopkins Baltimore. On a good day, he speaks Spanish, French, and Persian proficiently. Acknowledgements This report was made possible by the strong support I received from the entire Ploughshares Fund network throughout my fellowship. Ploughshares Fund alumni Will Saetren, Geoff Wilson, and Catherine Killough were extremely kind in offering early advice on the report. From the Washington, D.C. office, Mary Kaszynski and Zack Brown offered many helpful edits and suggestions, while Joe Cirincione, Michelle Dover, and John Carl Baker provided much- needed encouragement and support throughout the process. From the San Francisco office, Will Lowry, Derek Zender, and Delfin Vigil were The New Nuclear Arms Race instrumental in finalizing this report. I would like to thank each and every one of them for their help. I would especially like to thank Tom Collina. Tom reviewed numerous drafts of this report, never The Outlook for Avoiding running out of patience or constructive advice. -
Competitive Strategy Insights from Wargames
Competitive Strategy Insights from Wargames Competitive Strategy Insights from Wargames BENJAMIN JENSEN JOHN T. WATTS CHRISTIAN TROTTI MARK J. MASSA ATLANTIC COUNCIL 1 Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security The Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security works to develop sustainable, nonpartisan strategies to address the most important security challenges facing the United States and the world. The Center honors General Brent Scowcroft’s legacy of service and embodies his ethos of nonpartisan commitment to the cause of security, support for US leadership in cooperation with allies and partners, and dedication to the mentorship of the next generation of leaders. Forward Defense Forward Defense helps the United States and its allies and partners contend with great-power competitors and maintain favorable balances of power. This new practice area in the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security produces Forward-looking analyses of the trends, technologies, and concepts that will define the future of warfare, and the alliances needed for the 21st century. Through the futures we forecast, the scenarios we wargame, and the analyses we produce, Forward Defense develops actionable strategies and policies for deterrence and defense, while shaping US and allied operational concepts and the role of defense industry in addressing the most significant military challenges at the heart of great-power competition. This publication was produced in support of Army Futures Command as part of a project that used competitive strat- egy wargames to evaluate alternative long-term military investment strategies for great-power competition. Competitive Strategy Insights from Wargames BENJAMIN JENSEN · JOHN T. WATTS · CHRISTIAN TROTTI · MARK J. MASSA ISBN-13: 978-1-61977-121-5 Cover image: Army AH-64 Apache aircrews conduct formation practice at Camp Williams, Utah, June 5, 2019. -
Pakistan's Nuclear Weapons
Pakistan’s Nuclear Weapons Paul K. Kerr Analyst in Nonproliferation Mary Beth Nikitin Specialist in Nonproliferation August 1, 2016 Congressional Research Service 7-5700 www.crs.gov RL34248 Pakistan’s Nuclear Weapons Summary Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal probably consists of approximately 110-130 nuclear warheads, although it could have more. Islamabad is producing fissile material, adding to related production facilities, and deploying additional nuclear weapons and new types of delivery vehicles. Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal is widely regarded as designed to dissuade India from taking military action against Pakistan, but Islamabad’s expansion of its nuclear arsenal, development of new types of nuclear weapons, and adoption of a doctrine called “full spectrum deterrence” have led some observers to express concern about an increased risk of nuclear conflict between Pakistan and India, which also continues to expand its nuclear arsenal. Pakistan has in recent years taken a number of steps to increase international confidence in the security of its nuclear arsenal. Moreover, Pakistani and U.S. officials argue that, since the 2004 revelations about a procurement network run by former Pakistani nuclear official A.Q. Khan, Islamabad has taken a number of steps to improve its nuclear security and to prevent further proliferation of nuclear-related technologies and materials. A number of important initiatives, such as strengthened export control laws, improved personnel security, and international nuclear security cooperation programs, have improved Pakistan’s nuclear security. However, instability in Pakistan has called the extent and durability of these reforms into question. Some observers fear radical takeover of the Pakistani government or diversion of material or technology by personnel within Pakistan’s nuclear complex. -
How Should the United States Confront Soviet Communist Expansionism? DWIGHT D
Advise the President: DWIGHT D. EISENHOWER How Should the United States Confront Soviet Communist Expansionism? DWIGHT D. EISENHOWER Advise the President: DWIGHT D. EISENHOWER Place: The Oval Office, the White House Time: May 1953 The President is in the early months of his first term and he recognizes Soviet military aggression and the How Should the subsequent spread of Communism as the greatest threat to the security of the nation. However, the current costs United States of fighting Communism are skyrocketing, presenting a Confront Soviet significant threat to the nation’s economic well-being. President Eisenhower is concerned that the costs are not Communist sustainable over the long term but he believes that the spread of Communism must be stopped. Expansionism? On May 8, 1953, President Dwight D. Eisenhower has called a meeting in the Solarium of the White House with Secretary of State John Foster Dulles and Treasury Secretary George M. Humphrey. The President believes that the best way to craft a national policy in a democracy is to bring people together to assess the options. In this meeting the President makes a proposal based on his personal decision-making process—one that is grounded in exhaustive fact gathering, an open airing of the full range of viewpoints, and his faith in the clarifying qualities of energetic debate. Why not, he suggests, bring together teams of “bright young fellows,” charged with the mission to fully vet all viable policy alternatives? He envisions a culminating presentation in which each team will vigorously advocate for a particular option before the National Security Council. -
Phillip Saunders Testimony
Testimony before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission Hearing on China’s Nucle ar Force s June 10, 2021 Phillip C. Saunders Director, Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs Institute of National Strategic Studies, National Defense University The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Defense University, the Department of Defense, or the U.S. government. Introduction The People’s Republic of China (PRC) is in the midst of an ambitious strategic modernization that will transform its nuclear arsenal from a limited ground-based nuclear force intended to provide an assured second strike after a nuclear attack into a much larger, technologically advanced, and diverse nuclear triad that will provide PRC leaders with new strategic options. China also fields an increasing number of dual-capable medium and intermediate-range ballistic missiles whose status within a future regional crisis or conflict may be unclear, potentially casting a nuclear shadow over U.S. and allied military operations. In addition to more accurate and more survivable delivery systems, this modernization includes improvements to the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) nuclear command, control, and communications (NC3) and strategic intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) systems that will provide PRC leaders with greater situational awareness in a crisis or conflict. These systems will also support development of ballistic missile defenses (BMD) and enable possible shifts in PRC nuclear -
Evolving DPRK Nuclear Doctrine
Evolving DPRK Nuclear Doctrine By Dong-hyeon Kim ISSUES & INSIGHTS WORKING PAPER V O L . 1 9 , WP11 | S e p t e m b e r 2 0 1 9 Pacific Forum Based in Honolulu, the Pacific Forum (www.pacforum.org) is a foreign policy research institute focused on the Asia-Pacific Region. Founded in 1975, the Pacific Forum collaborates with a broad network of research institutes from around the Pacific Rim, drawing on Asian perspectives and disseminating project findings and recommendations to global leaders, governments, and members of the public throughout the region. The Forum’s programs encompass current and emerging political, security, economic, and maritime policy issues, and works to help stimulate cooperative policies through rigorous research, analyses and dialogues. TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................... iv INTRODUCTION ...................................................................... 1 THE DPRK’S NUCLEAR DOCTRINE ............................................. 1 PREVIOUS WORK ON NUCLEAR STRATEGY AND DOCTRINE ........... 2 REVISITING FRENCH AND PAKISTANI NUCLEAR DOCTRINE ........ 3 DPRK’S NUCLEAR DOCTRINE ................................................... 4 EVOLUTION OF THE DPRK’S NUCLEAR DOCTRINE ...................... 6 MAKING CREDIBLE THREATS WITH INSUFFICIENT MEANS ........ 7 CONCLUSION ......................................................................... 9 ABOUT THE AUTHOR ............................................................. 10 iii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This paper investigates how an emerging nuclear weapon state—the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK)—establishes and develops its nuclear doctrine upon completion of its nuclear arsenal. Since DPRK’s first nuclear crisis in the early 1990s and its first nuclear test in 2006, the nuclear nonproliferation community has focused on how to dismantle DPRK’s nuclear weapons program. Only recently have scholars focused on managing to live with a nuclear North Korea, shifting attention from nonproliferation to defense and deterrence. -
Toward Trilateral Arms Control: Options for Bringing China Into the Fold
ISSUE BRIEF Toward Trilateral Arms Control: Options for Bringing China into the Fold FEBRUARY 2021 MATTHEW KROENIG AND MARK J. MASSA The Scowcroft Center for Strategy Executive Summary and Security works to develop sustainable, nonpartisan strategies to During the Cold War and in its aftermath, the United States and the Soviet address the most important security Union (later the Russian Federation) engaged in successive nuclear arms challenges facing the United States and the world. The Center honors control treaties, which placed negotiated limits on strategic weapons and in- General Brent Scowcroft’s legacy of creased transparency. In the past few years, US relations with the People’s service and embodies his ethos of Republic of China have deteriorated, and the US National Security Strategy nonpartisan commitment to the cause has identified China as the priority of US national security efforts.1 The US of security, support for US leadership government publicly estimates that China’s nuclear arsenal will double in size in cooperation with allies and partners, 2 and dedication to the mentorship of the within the decade. These developments, combined with uncertainty about next generation of leaders. the future of US-Russia arms control, underscore the urgency of bringing China into the nuclear arms control fold. Yet China has refused to consider Forward Defense helps the United such a notion, and some Western analysts have dismissed trilateral arms con- States and its allies and partners trol as a fool’s errand.3 contend with great-power -
The End of Nuclear Warfighting: Moving to a Deterrence-Only Posture
THE END OF NUCLEAR WARFIGHTING MOVING TO A W E I DETERRENCE-ONLY V E R POSTURE E R U T S O P R A E L C U N . S . U E V I T A N September 2018 R E T L A Dr. Bruce G. Blair N Jessica Sleight A Emma Claire Foley In Collaboration with the Program on Science and Global Security, Princeton University The End of Nuclear Warfighting: Moving to a Deterrence-Only Posture an alternative u.s. nuclear posture review Bruce G. Blair with Jessica Sleight and Emma Claire Foley Program on Science and Global Security, Princeton University Global Zero, Washington, DC September 2018 Copyright © 2018 Bruce G. Blair published by the program on science and global security, princeton university This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial License; to view a copy of this license, visit www.creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0 typesetting in LATEX with tufte document class First printing, September 2018 Contents Abstract 5 Executive Summary 6 I. Introduction 15 II. The Value of U.S. Nuclear Capabilities and Enduring National Objectives 21 III. Maximizing Strategic Stability 23 IV. U.S. Objectives if Deterrence Fails 32 V. Modernization of Nuclear C3 40 VI. Near-Term Guidance for Reducing the Risks of Prompt Launch 49 VII. Moving the U.S. Strategic Force Toward a Deterrence-Only Strategy 53 VIII.Nuclear Modernization Program 70 IX. Nuclear-Weapon Infrastructure: The “Complex” 86 X. Countering Nuclear Terrorism 89 XI. Nonproliferation and Strategic-Arms Control 91 XII. Conclusion 106 Authors 109 Abstract The United States should adopt a deterrence-only policy based on no first use of nuclear weapons, no counterforce against opposing nuclear forces in second use, and no hair-trigger response. -
A Roadmap for America's Nuclear Policy and Posture
NTI Paper MARCH 2018 A Roadmap for America’s Nuclear Policy and Posture SUMMARY NTI co-chairs Ernest J. Moniz and Sam Nunn call on the United States and the other states with nuclear weapons to take immediate action to reduce the risk of a nuclear accident, mistake, or miscalculation. In six related policy papers, NTI provides an alternative vision and roadmap for America’s nuclear policy and posture, as well as a template for Congress and the American people to evaluate the Trump administration’s 2018 Nuclear Posture Review (NPR). Introduction by Ernest J. Moniz and Sam Nunn Papers by Steve Andreasen, Samantha Pitts-Kiefer, Leon Ratz, Brian Rose, and Lynn Rusten Contents Three Steps to Avert an Accidental Nuclear War ........................................1 Preventing Nuclear Use ............................................................3 Engaging in Nuclear Dialogue .......................................................5 Increasing Warning and Decision Time ...............................................7 Moving to a Safer, More Secure, More Credible Nuclear Posture in Europe. 9 Arms Control—Extending New START, Preserving INF, Supporting Further Reductions, and Strengthening Verification .......................................... 11 Securing Nuclear Weapons and Materials ........................................... 14 About the Authors ............................................................... 16 “Three Steps to Avert an Accidental Nuclear War” Copyright © 2018 by Bloomberg L.P. Roadmap for America’s Nuclear Policy and Posture policy papers Copyright © 2018 by the Nuclear Threat Initiative All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without written permission of the copyright holder. For permissions, send an e-mail request to [email protected]. The views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect those of the NTI Board of Directors or institutions with which they are associated. -
How Does Nuclear Deterrence Differ from Conventional Deterrence?
How Does Nuclear Deterrence Differ from Conventional Deterrence? James J. Wirtz Abstract Nuclear and conventional deterrence are in fact quite different in terms of theory, practice, and impact. The differences play out in various ways depending on whether strategies of denial, punishment, or retaliation constitute the basis of the deterrent threat. The fact that battle outcomes with conventional weapons are so difficult to predict highlights the observation that conventional deterrent threats are “contest- able.” The contestability of conventional threats can raise doubts in the minds of those targeted by conventional deterrence concerning the capability of the side issuing deterrent threats to actually succeed. Con- testability is the Achilles’ heel of conventional deterrence. By contrast, deterrent threats based on nuclear weapons are largely uncontestable. They offer an ideal deterrent capability because they tend to eliminate optimism about a positive war outcome. The fact that nuclear threats are uncontestable does not guarantee that they will be viewed as credible, while the contestable nature of conventional threats does not preclude their credibility. Strategy is the art of mustering all available resources in a concerted effort to alter an opponent’s political preferences so they correspond to one’s liking.1 Deterrence is an exquisite example of strategy because it is intended to alter an opponent’s political preferences without fighting in an effort to preserve the status quo, guarantee the peace, or ensure that diplomacy, not war, is the method of change in international affairs.2 The goal of deterrence is to prevent war or the occurrence of some James J. Wirtz is dean of the School of International Graduate Studies, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California. -
National Missile Defense What Does It All Mean? a CDI ISSUE BRIEF
National Missile Defense What Does It All Mean? A CDI ISSUE BRIEF CENTER FOR DEFENSE INFORMATION National Missile Defense What Does It All Mean? A CDI ISSUE BRIEF CENTER FOR DEFENSE INFORMATION © September 2000 Center for Defense Information 1779 Massachusetts Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20036 (202) 332-0600 • Fax: (202) 462-4559 www.cdi.org DESIGN BY CUTTING EDGE GRAPHICS Contents v Foreword 1 Why Should We Care? 2 A Brief History of “Missiles” and Ballistic Missile Defense 5 The Ballistic Missile Threat 10 Technological Challenges in National Missile Defense 17 The Costs of Ballistic Missile Defense 20 Impact of NMD on Russia, Nuclear Security 24 U.S. National Missile Defense: Views from Asia 33 Europe’s Role in National Missile Defense 39 Chronology of U.S. National Missile Defense Programs 47 Acronyms 49 Glossary Foreword THE FUTURE OF U.S. NATIONAL MISSILE DEFENSE remains in limbo at the time of this writing. We find ourselves in the midst of a presidential campaign in which defense programs often gain momentum from boosterism. At the same time, a string of missile interceptor failures has raised doubts about the feasibility of national missile defense to new heights. On September 1, 2000, President Clinton deferred NMD deployment, delaying—but not killing—the program. Extensive press coverage of this politically charged program during an election year makes for a noisy dispute that the Center for Defense Information seeks to quell with a dispassionate survey of the potential costs and consequences of national missile defense. This Issue Brief covers the four major desidarata that should, in a rational world, determine the decision on whether or not to build the NMD system.