Israel and the Middle East News Update

Friday, February 5

Headlines:  Arab MKs Hit Back ‘Fascist’ Criticism Over Meeting Terrorists’ Families  Bibi: Those Comforting Terrorists’ Families Shouldn’t Be MKs  IDF Makes Arrests, Warns of Demolitions in Swoop  Court Delays Razing Terrorists’ Homes After Family Petitions  Embassy of ‘Palestine’ Established in Brazil  Gaps, Failures Found in ’s Preparedness to Tunnel Threat  Silence Along Gaza Border as Both Hamas, Israel Working Hard  Russia Suspects Turkey Preparing Military Incursion in Syria

Commentary:  Ma’ariv: “Hostages”  By Ben Caspit, Senior Columnist, Ma’ariv  Ma’ariv: “Middle Eastern Wind”  By Udi Segal, Diplomatic Correspondent, Channel 2 News, Israel

S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace 633 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, 5th Floor, Washington, DC 20004 www.centerpeace.org ● Yoni Komorov, Editor ● David Abreu, Associate Editor

News Excerpts February 5, 2016

Times of Israel Arab MKs Hit Back Criticism Over Meeting Terrorists’ Families Three Arab MKs on Friday defended their meeting earlier in the week with the relatives of Palestinian terrorists who carried out attacks against Israelis in recent months. The meeting drew condemnation from across the Israeli political spectrum. “We are defending national and human dignity. It is our duty and our right,” MK Hanin Zoabi wrote in Arabic on Facebook on Friday. “The real crime is holding onto bodies. It is our duty to do our utmost to get the bodies released.” See also, "Palestinian Authority Rejects Criticism of Abbas Meeting with Families of Terrorists” (Jerusalem Post)

Jerusalem Post Bibi: Those Comforting Terrorists’ Families Shouldn’t Be MKs Balad MKs do not deserve to be in the after they visited terrorists’ families, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Thursday evening. The comment came in response to three lawmakers’ meeting with 10 families of terrorists this week, including one who killed three Israelis. MKs Jamal Zahalka, and Basel Ghattas, all from the Balad party that is part of the Joint List, met with the families of terrorists whose bodies have not been released by authorities, including the father of Baha Alian, who, together with an accomplice, killed three people by shooting and stabbing passengers on a bus in Jerusalem’s Armon Hanatziv neighborhood on October 13, 2015. Police shot and killed Alian at the site of the attack.

Times of Israel IDF Makes Arrests, Warns of Demolitions in West Bank Swoop IDF troops and Border Police forces arrested eight wanted Palestinians in overnight raids in the West Bank, the army said Friday morning. The IDF also issued advance notice of house demolition for the homes of seven Palestinians who carried out deadly terror attacks on Israelis. One of the eight detainees is suspected of involvement in terrorism, mass disturbances and violence toward civilians and security forces, the army said. At least seven are said to be members of the Hamas terrorist organization. In the Nablus area, troops arrested four suspected Hamas operatives, while three more were arrested in the Ramallah region. All eight detainees were transferred for interrogation by security forces. See also, “27 Palestinians Detained in Raids Across the West Bank” (Al Bawaba) See also, “Clashes as Army Raids West Bank Hometown of Jerusalem Attackers” (Times of Israel)

Ma’ariv Court Delays Razing Terrorists’ Homes After Family Petitions The High Court of Justice issued a temporary injunction preventing the immediate demolition of the homes of the two terrorists who carried out the terrorist attack in the Panorama building in Tel Aviv and the attack in November between Alon Shvut and the Etzion Bloc intersection. Five people were murdered in the attacks. The petitions were submitted by family members of the terrorists. The hearing on the two petitions will be held on Thursday. 2

Arutz Sheva Embassy of 'Palestine' Established in Brazil The Palestinian Authority established an embassy in Brasilia, first of its kind in first in the Americas. PA ambassador Ibrahim Alzeben led the opening event on Monday, and flag-raising ceremony on Tuesday. The events were attended by left-wing Brazilian government officials, the Arab Brazilian Chamber of Commerce, representatives of Arab countries and members of the local Arab community. The 17,000-square-feet plot of land which stands adjacent to major Brazilian governmental buildings, including the Planalto Palace, Congress, Supreme Court and ministries, was donated by the Brazilian government during former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's period in office. See also, “Palestinians Inaugurate Embassy in Brazil While Israel Is Still Without Ambassador” (Ha'aretz)

Ha’aretz Gaps, Failures Found in Israel's Preparedness to Tunnel Threat State Comptroller Joseph Shapira’s draft report on the threat of tunnels from the , which he handed on Thursday to senior officials, “indicates gaps and failures, some of them serious, in preparations to meet the threat of the tunnels and in dealing with them.” Shapira gave the report to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon and IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot for their responses, after which a final report will be written. He said the gaps and failures were present both in the years before the war in Gaza the summer of 2014, and during the fighting itself. The report also includes a section on security in Israeli communities bordering the Gaza Strip. See also, “State Comptroller: Government Failed on Hamas Threat” (Arutz Sheva)

Ynet News Silence Along Gaza Border as Both Hamas, Israel Working Hard There is complete silence on the Gaza border these days, but it's mostly because both sides are focused on their work. On the one side of the border, Israel is drilling into the ground in an effort to locate tunnels that cross into Israeli territory, and on the other side Hamas is clearing out areas to dig tunnels. "We're in a race with Hamas on who will get there first: Israel with a technological development to locate tunnels, or Hamas succeeding in crossing the border and opening an entrance into Israel for the terrorists. That is the big question, and in this race we must not lose," said MK Haim Yellin.

Jerusalem Post Russia Suspects Turkey Preparing Military Incursion in Syria Russia has serious grounds to suspect Turkey of preparing for a military incursion in Syria, where Russian jets are bombing rebel and jihadi fighters, Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov said on Thursday. "The Russian Defense Ministry registers a growing number of signs of hidden preparation of the Turkish armed forces for active actions on the territory of Syria," he said in a statement. The ministry also hit out at Turkey's refusal to allow Russia to make an observation in early February over Turkish areas adjacent to Syria, saying "no specific explanation" was given by Ankara. "The Russian Defense Ministry regards these actions of the Turkish party as a dangerous precedent and an attempt to hide the illegal military activity near the Syrian border," it said.

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Ma’ariv – February 5, 2016 Hostages By Ben Caspit  Binyamin Netanyahu convened a “security meeting” on Wednesday evening. That is the typical code word for “we have no idea what to do now, but we have to make the impression that we’re doing something.” Netanyahu did not invent it. He is not the first prime minister to discover the limits of power. What do you do about three brainwashed and hate-filled teens mourning a relative killed in a previous terrorist attack who prepared to blow themselves up on a Border Police team at Damascus Gate in Jerusalem? While still meeting, two 13 year-old high school girls in Ramle (in Israel) armed with a fruit drink and a knife attack a security guard at a mall and injure him. So what do you do? Who do you bomb? What “terrorist infrastructure” do you dismantle?  The talk about incitement does not hold water either. These youngsters do not need the incitement of the Palestinian Authority to hate us. The PA’s broadcasts (in which the incitement was recently significantly toned down) are irrelevant. The average young Palestinian despises the PA at least as much as he hates us. The hate of the Palestinians towards Israelis sizzles throughout the social media and is evident in every post and WhatsApp message and channel in which daily life takes place in the digital age.  And one other thing: if we were Palestinians, we would also hate us. Anyone who does not agree with this statement is lying to himself. I am not saying this out of defeatism or leftism. I am saying it out of a view of reality. I am an Israeli, a Zionist, a patriot, someone for whom security is paramount, etc. and if I were born a Palestinian whose fathers and grandfathers lived here throughout the last few generations until the Jews returned to their homeland, I would fight the Jews. It was Ehud Barak who told Gideon Levy in 1998 in one of the few instances that he was caught telling the truth, “if I were a Palestinian of the right age, I may have joined a terrorist organization.”  No, I am not justifying terrorism. Terrorism cannot be justified in any way or by any excuse. Arab society overall and Palestinian society within it are afflicted by a tendency towards barbarism, toward sanctifying death, a contempt for human life, and other atrocities. Yes, it would be better if we were surrounded by Swedes (just without their foreign minister, please), but even the Swedes are not what they used to be. Barak was right.  So we hold a “security meeting.” In the end, no matter which way we spin it, we will reach the same two contradictory approaches, the only two there are: the first one says that the Palestinians (and the Arabs) only understand force. Hate and terrorism exist because the Palestinians have nothing to hope for. When we make it clear to them that they have no hope and treat them with a firm hand, it will be over. We will expel the families to Gaza, revoke residency status, demolish houses, annex Judea and Samaria, impose the death penalty on terrorists, and then the only possible result will be “Nation shall not lift up sword against nation, no longer will they learn how to make war.” The words of the prophet Isaiah, in his modern reincarnation (Bezalel Smotrich). They will understand, the world will make peace with it, the Palestinian state will be established in Jordan, and the third Kingdom of Israel will reign forever. 4

 The second approach says that there is no chance that the first will ever happen. This is based on history and statistics. Where else is it possible to find a people who accept occupation or who agree to live without rights? Where has that succeeded in the modern age? Ah, the Russians are crushing the Chechens and the Chinese are subjugating the Tibetans. Right. When we’re China or Russia, then we’ll talk. We are Israelis, Jews, well-known historic underdogs, the entire world is against us a billion and a half Muslims and hundreds of millions of Arabs who have already Islamized half of Europe. With these being the opening conditions, what are the chances that we will succeed in entrenching our control over the Palestinian people and perpetuating it for the greater glory of the State of Israel? Do we really believe that if the Palestinians no longer have hope, they will get used to living in besieged cantons, being hewers of wood and drawers of water in their rulers’ estates (ours) at the same time as they learn to sing Hatikva?  And, therefore, the only solution is to separate from them. For better or for worse. I am among those who believe that it won’t happen for the better. Even if a Palestinian state is established alongside Israel, there will be no harmony here. On the other hand, it will then be possible to fight them like we fight any country. Since there are currently no indications that we have someone with whom to reach a permanent solution, we have to reduce the friction to a minimum. We have to take steps that will precede the separation. We have to stop building in settlements that are beyond the fence. We have to stop expropriating and settling in the thick of Palestinian territory. We have to pour cold water on the fire.  Where is Netanyahu? Not here and not there. He gave the Bar Ilan speech and did everything he could to prevent the establishment of a Palestinian state. He calls twice a day for the “restart of negotiations without preconditions” and refuses to meet with Abu Mazen. He pours cold water on the fire in his statements (sometimes) and ignites them with gasoline with his actions. Since he is not stupid, Netanyahu understands the volatility of the current situation very well. He understands that the fragility of Israeli legitimacy is crumbling around the world. He understands that the international siege is getting tighter. Netanyahu went far in the various negotiations that he conducted over the years (the London track, the Kerry track, the Shimon Peres track). Very far. The problem is that he kept a safe distance from these far- reaching steps. He always built a gap between himself and the concessions that Attorney Yitzhak Molcho made in his name.  When these were exposed, it was not him, it was an American position paper, it was brainstorming, it was theoretical, he has reservations, etc. Because, in the end, Netanyahu is the settlers’ hostage. They won him the elections and he will not do anything to annoy them. He will condemn the Im Tirtzu campaign an hour and a half after Naftali Bennett (as was emphasized here last week), but never before him. Like in a military formation, he keeps within touching distance of Bennett at any given moment, “eyes right,” so that on Election Day, with the various media outlets that he controls, he can again siphon the religious Zionist voters away from the Holy Grail. He will keep trying to hold the stick at both ends even when the stick becomes a deadly double-edged sword. The problem is that he is the prime minister and so we have become the real hostages of the settlers. Ben Caspit is a senior columnist for Ma'ariv and other Israeli newspapers.

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Ma’ariv – February 5, 2016 Middle Eastern Wind By Udi Segal  From the urgent meeting held about two weeks ago with PA Chairman Abu Mazen in the mukataa, only one troubling moment has been engraved in my mind. It was not the drive through the dirty streets of Ramallah; not sitting in an expensive restaurant, which conveyed a sense of business as usual; not the conversation, which gave the impression that [Abu Mazen] is really trying; not the sense of a sleepy city, completely different from the image that it has on the Israeli side. The moment that was engraved in my mind came just before we returned to Israeli territory.  After driving through the forsaken neighborhoods [of Jerusalem]—Arab neighborhoods located beyond the fence, which are supposedly under Israeli control, and are not controlled by the PA, and after looking at the empty houses that are waiting for the outbreak of the Palestinian real estate revolution—we arrived at the checkpoint. On the way to the inspection, three children aged about ten or slightly older accompanied our car. Ohad Hemo, our excellent correspondent in the territories, and Raed Ibrahim, the wonderful producer of Channel Two News, spoke with them. They tried to sell us trinkets and we gave them ten shekels.  It was 10:30 PM, and they were on the street, among the cars, begging for pennies. One of them told us that he was from Hebron and added smilingly: “My grandfather was a panhandler, my father was a panhandler, and now me.” He was not complaining, but rather said this naturally. He voiced a spirit of quiet acceptance. It still did not have despair, anger or rage. Perhaps this will yet come, and perhaps not. We drove away and he remained. Beyond the fence.  The wind is blowing. An ill, fickle, hot and toxic wind. A sandstorm that blinds the eyes and darkens the horizon. This is a Middle Eastern wind with recurrent outbursts. This is not a typhoon or a hurricane. It does not uproot mountains, knock down houses or flood roads, but it is troublesome and does not let up. The most troubling thing is that we have become used to it. It is part of the weather.  The terrorist wind blowing upon us from the Palestinians has no clear political objective. There is no coherent thinking or ideology behind it. It does not bear the message “It’s good to die for our country” [alluding to the legendary quote attributed to Joseph Trumpeldor], but rather “It’s good to die and not live in Israel.”  Like weather forecasters, we are trying to understand the direction and development of the wind. The most exasperating observation is that this is the result of deep despair. The Palestinians have no hope. Leftists think that the responsibility to restore their hope rests with Israel, or also rests with Israel. Right wingers think that it is the responsibility of the Palestinians, and theirs alone. But the despair is not improving, it is sinking in.

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 Wednesday’s terror attack at Damascus Gate in Jerusalem triggered several warning signals. It is not certain that this marked the transition from the wave of lone-wolf terrorism to an organized wave, but this group of young men from the town of Kabatya prepared for about a month and acquired guns and bombs. This was different and troubling.  It became apparent once again that they had written the warning on the wall. On the Facebook wall. Once again it became apparent that the sea of digital information is a complex challenge for the Israeli gatherers of intelligence and potential hunters of terrorists.  The ill wind blinds the Palestinians’ eyes, preventing them from seeing that it is leading them into an impasse, and blinds the Israelis’ eyes, preventing them from seeing that the solution is not only military and forceful. We are on the defensive, holding firm to our opinion that there is no one to reach an arrangement with, that there is no point to any initiative, and that any compromise or risk that we take will boomerang back at us.  We are waiting for them to stop. The Palestinians, however, feel like suckers. Years of security quiet have led to freezing the situation and a continued Israeli takeover of Palestinian territory. In their mind, we don’t see them when they’re quiet, and they are not wrong. They are making noise in order to provoke Israel to action. Or the world. Or the Arabs. This is an understandable thought, but it is hopeless.  A deep-seated change is needed. Initiative is needed on both sides. Despair is a recipe for a storm. The approach that managing the conflict is preferable to resolving it is wavering in this wind, but it is not certain that it will crash on the ground. That depends on the regional climate changes.  Israel is fighting against additional winds: The boycott and pressure from Europe; the sourness and frustration of the US administration; and the great wind of global lenience that is blowing towards Iran as a legitimate player in the Middle East after the nuclear agreement. This wind raises the hazard of a dangerous misconception, and this is also true in terms of military strategy.  There are several strategic military experts who were troubled to hear Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot say that the IDF’s main enemy at this time is Hizbullah. If that is so, what is Iran’s role? Isn’t Hizbullah a vanguard division of Iran, and is the IDF making a mistake by failing to orient its strategic plan of action towards exacting a heavy price from Iran in case of a confrontation, so as to create strategic deterrence and prevent [Iran] from making use of Hizbullah?  Eisenkot and the IDF may feel relief—they will probably not be called upon to attack Iran in an attempt to target its nuclear program. This relief may have led them to hope for greater relief— relieve us of the great, frightening and threatening shadow, Iran, and let us deal with the pale shadow, Hizbullah. Several senior officials have noted that Eisenkot’s possible cognitive failures—viewing Hizbullah as the main enemy instead of Iran, and the idea that the organization is deterred instead of assuming that Iran is preventing it from operating against Israel—are weighty. It is possible that this misconception is also leading the army’s order of priorities, with all the operational ramifications to which this leads.

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 The fear is that the army is treating Hizbullah as an independent body that operates on its own volition, whereas Iran—whose nuclear program has been stopped for the next five years—is no more than a theoretical enemy that is irrelevant to direct military action. A high-ranking IDF source said that this was only a matter of wording, not a conceptual matter. “Iran is Hizbullah, and Hizbullah is Iran,” he said. Binyamin Netanyahu also takes care to emphasize this point.  The explanation for the chief of staff’s statements is the focus on the interim stage. In other words, adaptation to the new strategic situation. This is a stage in which the volatile border in the north could cause an unplanned confrontation, which is undesirable both for Hizbullah and for Israel.  The simple political explanation is that Eisenkot understands that focusing on the wave of terrorism, on Hamas and on everyday challenges diverts attention and resources from the major threat building up in the north. But it is feared that focusing on Hizbullah will prevent Israel from conveying the message to Tehran that a confrontation on the northern border will cause them to pay a heavy strategic, personal, and political price. If this message is conveyed properly, it will retain and even enhance Israeli deterrence.  But still, we should not leave to the day of trial the question of whether Hizbullah is independent enough to disobey the orders of the big boss from Tehran. Israel has to mobilize the US and the world powers for this effort, in order to persuade them that a small confrontation in the north could spark a serious regional storm. Udi Segal is a diplomatic correspondent for Channel 2 News, Israel.

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