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Today's Top Research Idea Market Snapshot Financials: RBI Approves 8 September 2020 Market snapshot Today’s top research idea Equities - India Close Chg .% CYTD.% Financials: RBI approves expert committee’s Sensex 38,417 0.2 -6.9 Nifty-50 11,355 0.2 -6.7 restructuring framework Nifty-M 100 16,780 -0.9 -1.9 The expert committee led by Mr K V Kamath identified 26 sectors impacted by Equities-Global Close Chg .% CYTD.% COVID-19 with varying severity - mild, moderate, and severe - and suggested S&P 500 3,427 0.0 6.1 financial parameters based on leverage, liquidity, and the debt serviceability Nasdaq 11,313 0.0 26.1 FTSE 100 5,937 2.4 -21.3 of the company. The committee thus identified five key ratios with different DAX 13,100 2.0 -1.1 limits across sectors to be used as the threshold in implementing a resolution Hang Seng 9,765 -1.2 -12.6 plan. Nikkei 225 23,090 -0.5 -2.4 As per the expert committee, ~INR38t of Banking sector debt has been seen in Commodities Close Chg .% CYTD.% sectors affected by COVID-19, thus forming 37% of the total banking system Brent (US$/Bbl) 41 -0.6 -38.2 debt. Among the banks, total exposure toward the key troubled sectors forms Gold ($/OZ) 1,934 0.0 27.4 15-31% of the total fund-based exposure. Cu (US$/MT) 6,811 1.2 10.8 Overall, we believe this is a prudent attempt by the expert committee at Almn (US$/MT) 1,760 0.5 -1.2 Currency Close Chg .% CYTD.% laying down the financial parameters for impacted sectors. Moreover, it USD/INR 73.0 0.3 2.8 would enable transparency in restructuring across lenders, while focusing on USD/EUR 1.2 -0.2 5.4 the efficacy of the resolution plan. We continue to prefer ICICIBC, HDFCB, and USD/JPY 106.3 0.0 -2.2 SBIN. YIELD (%) Close 1MChg CYTDchg 10 Yrs G-Sec 6.0 0.06 -0.6 Research covered 10 Yrs AAA Corp 6.8 0.06 -0.8 Flows (USD b) 7-Sep MTD CYTD Cos/Sector Key Highlights FIIs 0.00 0.08 4.90 Financials RBI approves expert committee’s restructuring framework DIIs -0.11 -0.22 8.90 Volumes (INRb) 7-Sep MTD* CYTD* Info Edge India All-round beat Cash 492 559 544 Repco Home Finance Stable quarter; focus on NPL collections F&O 13,109 20,448 15,926 Agriculture Rainfall and sowing update Note: *Average Chart of the Day: Financials (RBI approves expert committee’s restructuring framework) Sectors not under stress pre-COVID and impacted by COVID Sectors under stress pre-COVID and further impacted by COVID Research Team ([email protected]) Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report. Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital. In the news today Kindly click on textbox for the detailed news link 1 2 Kamath committee identifies Monthly collections from securitised retail loans up to 50% in 26 sectors for loan June: Crisil restructuring The monthly collection ratio for securitised retail loans like Reserve Bank of India today microfinance, commercial vehicles and mortgages have risen to above released the K V Kamath-led 50 per cent after falling to near-zero in many pools in April 2020, Committee report, which had according to Crisil. The median monthly collection ratio represents all recommended financial collections excluding prepayments as a percentage of estimated pre- parameters to be factored in the moratorium billing for the month. Collections for pools of resolution plans under the microfinance and commercial vehicle loan receivables, which had ‘Resolution Framework for seen the sharpest drop after the lockdown, clawed back above 50 per Covid19-related Stress’ along cent in June… with sector specific benchmark… 3 4 Entire GST compensation British government to rope in owed to states will be investment bankers to save honoured: Union government Tata Steel’s UK operations The entire sum of compensation 5 owed to states on account of In a move to save Tata Steel’s UK shortfall in collections of Goods operations, the British Freight revenue of Indian and Services Tax (GST) will be government has planned to rope railways between April-Aug “honoured", the union in investment bankers to come 2020 down nearly 22% up with a rescue plan, a leading government said on Monday… The Indian Railways’ freight UK-based news channel revenue between April to August reported… has declined by almost 22% compared to the same period last year. While freight loading in the month of August was higher compared to August 2019, it declined as against July this year, 6 7 after having registered a steady growth for two consecutive Paytm Money sees sharp rise Mahindra Finance set to months, latest freight data in SIPs; new investors emerge enter online insurance, will reveals… from small towns launch portal called PayBima The large scale expansion of Mahindra Finance is set to enter digital technologies in India has the business of online insurance helped fintech companies such broking giving digital services to as Paytm Money to give a strong the customers of its insurance push to their business… brokerage subsidiary, Mahindra Insurance Brokers, through a soon-to-be launched portal called PayBima… 8 September 2020 2 Sector Update | 7 September 2020 Financials Report of the Expert RBI approves expert committee’s restructuring framework Committee on Resolution Framework for Lays down financial parameters for approving restructuring plan across 26 sectors Covid-19 related Stress The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) earlier announced a resolution framework for accounts adversely impacted by COVID-19 in a circular released on 6th Aug'20. The RBI subsequently formed an expert committee led by Mr K V Kamath to suggest a list of financial parameters to be factored in the assumptions of the resolution plan and validate the resolution plan for all accounts above INR15b. Accordingly, the expert committee identified 26 sectors that have been impacted by COVID-19 with varying severity – mild, moderate, and severe. It also suggested financial parameters based on leverage, liquidity, and the debt serviceability of the company. The committee thus identified five key ratios with different limits across sectors to be used as the threshold in implementing a resolution plan. The expert committee suggested that ~INR38t of Banking sector debt comprises sectors affected by COVID-19, thus forming 37% of the total banking system debt. Among banks, total exposure toward the key troubled sectors forms 15–31% of the total fund-based exposure. Overall, we believe this is a prudent attempt by the expert committee at laying down the financial parameters for impacted sectors. It would enable transparency in restructuring across lenders while focusing on the efficacy of the resolution plan. We believe large banks are better placed as they have strengthened provision coverage, build higher COVID-19-related provision buffers, and gain incremental market share. We continue to prefer ICICIBC, HDFCB, and SBIN. RBI approves expert committee’s restructuring framework Sectors not under stress Pre- The expert committee has identified 26 sectors that have been impacted by COVID but impacted by COVID COVID-19 with varying severity – mild, moderate and severe. It has broadly Exposure % of bank Sectors (INRt) credit suggested parameters based on leverage, liquidity, and debt serviceability of the Retail Trade 2.87 3.0 companies and thus identified five key ratios in considering a resolution plan: a) Wholesale Trade 2.55 2.0 total outside liability / adjusted tangible networth, b) total debt/EBITDA, c) Roads 1.94 2.0 current ratio, d) debt service coverage ratio, and e) average debt service coverage ratio. Textiles 1.89 2.0 The borrower’s resolution plan would be prepared based on pre-COVID-19 Engineering 1.18 1.0 performance, and the COVID-19 impact on 1HFY21 financials would be used to Total 10.43 10.0 project future cash flows. The framework requires that: The threshold range limit for the first two ratios (i.e., total outside liability / adjusted tangible networth and the total debt/EBITDA ratio) of each respective sector should be met by FY23. Sectors under stress Pre-COVID While the other three ratios’ threshold limit ranges should be met from FY22. and further impacted by COVID Exposure % of bank For those sectors where the threshold parameters have not been specified, Sectors (INRt) credit lenders could use their own assessments for the solvency ratios; the current NBFC's 7.98 8.0 ratio should >=1.0x and debt serviceability ratio >=1.2x. Power 5.69 6.0 Key details of resolution framework Steel 2.66 3.0 The resolution framework is applicable for borrowers that are standard, but Real Estate 2.29 2.0 not in default for more than 30 days (as of 1st Mar’20). The resolution plan Construction 1.03 1.0 should be invoked by 31st Dec’20 and implemented within 180 days from the Total 19.65 19.0 invocation date for non-personal loans. 8 September 2020 3 General guidelines: (a) Under the resolution plan, the residual tenure of a loan may be extended by a maximum of two years. (b) Asset classification may be maintained as standard or upgraded to standard subject to the resolution plan being implemented. (c) Resolutions in accounts greater than INR1b would require an Independent Credit Evaluation (ICE) by a credit rating agency. Signing of ICA involves multiple lenders: The resolution plan involves the signing of an inter-creditor agreement (ICA) by lenders, representing 75% by value and 60% by number and ICA – to be signed within 30 days of invocation.
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