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Zambia Budget 2019 Zambia's 2019 National Budget: PwC analysis and outlook www.pwc.com/zm Welcome This PwC Budget bulletin summarises the Government’s key proposals for 2019. It also includes our initial comments and analysis of the Budget proposals, which What next? were presented by The Minister of Finance, Honourable Margaret Mwanakatwe (MP) to Parliament on 28 Zambia Budget September 2018. We hope that you will find it insightful, 2019 and look forward to your comments. In this bulletin 1 Commentary 2 The economy 5 Direct taxes 13 Indirect taxes 20 Mining tax regime 24 Tax data card 25 Sector analysis 31 Zambia's 2019 National Budget: PwC analysis and outlook www.pwc.com/zm Commentary Time for Austerity? With Zambia’s growing debt obligations making The IMF has been in discussions with Government about Earlier this year, it enacted the Public Finance headlines in 2018, it is not surprising that the central providing Zambia with an interest free loan of USD1.3 Management Act, 2018, which aims to improve fiscal theme in this year’s budget is how to contain this debt . billion, although to date no agreement between the IMF prudence and provide punitive measures for those and Zambia has been reached. Hon. Mwanakatwe hopes who abuse and misapply public funds. Additionally, In her first speech as Minister of Finance, Honourable that Government’s austerity measures will reduce Hon. Mwanakatwe said in her budget speech that she Margaret Mwanakatwe (MP) (“The Hon. Minister”), Zambia’s risk of debt distress from high to moderate in planned to revise the Public Procurement Act and the reiterated Government’s intention to introduce austerity the medium term. Planning and Budgeting Bill in an effort to improve measures first announced by the President, His management of public resources, as well as establish a Excellency Edgar Chagwa Lungu, in June. She Curtailing spending multi-sectoral public investment board in 2019 to acknowledged that Zambia needs to reduce its fiscal evaluate investment proposals. deficit and maintain a sustainable debt position if an As part of these austerity measures, Hon. Mwanakatwe increase in private sector development and poverty said in her budget speech – the Patriotic Front’s eighth If followed through, such initiatives would have a reduction are to be achieved. budget since it came to power in 2011 – that going positive impact. In a World Bank report, How Zambia forward Government will amongst other things, focus Can Borrow Without Sorrow, published in December Zambia’s external debt stood at USD9.4 billion at the domestic resources on infrastructure projects that are at last year, the organisation observed that the tragedy end of June, up from USD8.7 billion in December 2017, least 80% completed in order to reduce domestically- was not the recent build-up of debt but the “lack of while Government guaranteed debt was USD1.2 billion. financed capital expenditure. She did not elaborate on productive assets Zambia can show from the Meanwhile, domestic debt in the form of Government what would happen to projects that were less than 80% borrowing” and urged Government to invest the securities was K51.9 billion at the end of June, completed. She also said Government planned to reduce proceeds of its borrowing shrewdly. representing 19.2% of GDP. Domestic arrears amounted domestic borrowing from 4% to 1.4% of GDP, reduce to K13.9 billion. Together, this brings Zambia’s total debt expenditure on administrative parts of the public service Economic fundamentals steady burden to around USD17.2 billion, easily surpassing in and control the growth of Government’s wage bill, relative terms the debt levels that qualified Zambia for although details of how this will be achieved are vague. Despite growing concerns about the sustainability of the Highly Indebted Poor Countries debt relief scheme Zambia’s debt, the country’s underlying economic in 2005. At that time, Zambia’s external debt stood at In addition to the austerity measures, which were also fundamentals remain relatively stable. USD7 billion, while its domestic debt was around outlined in the 2019-2021 Medium Term Expenditure USD1.7 billion. Framework, published in August, Government has taken The economy grew 3.4% in 2017 and is projected to other steps to regain control of the country’s finances. grow at 4% this year, according to Hon. Mwanakatwe, These burgeoning debt levels led the World Bank and led by improved performance in the mining, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to warn in late construction, manufacturing, and wholesale and retail 2017 that Zambia is at high risk of debt distress. trade, and supported by a more reliable energy supply. 2 Zambia's 2019 National Budget: PwC analysis and outlook www.pwc.com/zm Commentary (continued) This is more or less in line with global growth, which was Meanwhile, the Bank of Zambia policy rate was lowered Miners shoulder new tax burden 3.7% in 2017 and which is projected to rise to 3.9% this to 9.75%, reducing lending rates to an average 23.5% in year. It is also higher than Sub-Saharan growth rates, August. However, while an improvement, rates will need Whilst populist sentiment may be that it is appropriate which averaged 2.8% in 2017 and which are expected to to drop further if lending is to support much-needed to increase taxes in the mining sector, it should be rise to 3.4% this year, assuming the risks posed by a private sector growth. The Bank of Zambia has also appreciated that a volatile tax regime is not conducive to possible escalating trade war between the US and China announced that various bank charges will be abolished, long-term investment. The impact on jobs, investor and a strengthening US dollar do not materialise. which should reduce the cost of financial services, and confidence and investment arising from the last spate of support business expansion and financial inclusion. reactive changes to the mining tax regime between 2013 Zambia’s economic growth has been partly fueled by and 2015 should not be forgotten. It is also a great improved copper prices, which averaged USD6,723 per Main tax changes in 2019 concern that the current pipeline of exploration projects metric tonne to the end of August 2018 compared with has diminished significantly. USD5,892 for the same period last year. More recently, An overview of the tax measures indicates that the focus however, prices have dipped to around USD6,000 per has been to increase tax revenues from the mining Furthermore, it must be appreciated that the Zambian metric tonne. sector. Mineral royalties rates for copper are to increase economy is still highly dependent on the mining sector, by 1.5 percent at all levels of the sliding scale, and an which is dominated by only a handful of major mining Crude oil prices have also increased notably this year. additional tier is proposed where a mineral royalty rate houses. Any disinvestment or curtailment of operations The price averaged USD71 per barrel in the first eight of 10% will be payable where copper prices rise beyond by these companies would have a significant impact on months of the year compared to USD47 in the same USD7,500 per metric tonne. Mineral royalty on cobalt the rest of the economy. period last year. Prices are currently around USD80 a will increase from 5% to 8%. barrel. With the upward trend in oil prices expected to Given the country’s difficult situation, Government may continue for the rest of the year and the pressure on the Additionally, mineral royalty tax will no longer be have taken a calculated risk by concentrating the revenue Kwacha, economic headwinds in the form of higher fuel deductible as a cost for purposes of determining the generation measures on the mining industry. However, costs are likely. taxable income. An import duty of 5% on copper and this is a precarious measure as it renders the Zambian cobalt concentrates is to be introduced. economy highly vulnerable to movements in commodity Sound monetary policy prices and global economic conditions. An export duty of 15% is to be introduced on precious Inflation and exchange rate movements have been kept metals including gold, precious stones and gemstones. mostly under control this year thanks to prudent central bank monetary policy. Inflation has remained in the 6%- Whilst the majority of the mining sector will face an 8% bracket throughout 2018, rising to 7.9% in additional burden, companies that use the copper September 2018, while the exchange rate – until recent cathodes to add value will see a reduction in corporate weeks at least – has been steady. However, inflation may income tax rate from 35% to 15%. This is to encourage rise if the recent depreciation of the kwacha, which has value addition and creation of employment. seen the currency fall from K10.2 to K12.2* to the US dollar over the last month continues. 3 *Exchange rate as at the time of budget announcement Zambia's 2019 National Budget: PwC analysis and outlook www.pwc.com/zm Commentary (continued) Sales tax surprise Private sector under pressure For example, there is little mention in the budget about how Government might reduce the cost and improve The private sector is the main potential engine for A rather surprising tax measure proposed is the efficiency of the country’s cumbersome civil service. Nor economic growth in Zambia. Despite this, the sector abolishment of the Value Added Tax (VAT) System, is there information as to how Government will repay faces an increasing number of obstacles that could which is to be replaced by Sales Tax.
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