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Fosun and Club Med 2016 Northeast Asia International Conference for Economic Development (NICE) in Niigata D-ZHOU A “New Normal” in China’s Economy and Corporate Strategies Li ZHOU 周立 Assistant Dean 助理院长 CKGSB 长江商学院 Agenda A “New Normal” in China’s Economy A “New Normal” in Chinese Companies Overview The Fosun Case CKGSB-A Global Business School for Global Leaders Conclusions 2 ©ERINA 2016 Northeast Asia International Conference for Economic Development (NICE) in Niigata D-ZHOU A New Normal in China’s Economy New Normal in China’s Economy Old New Economic Growth 10% 6.5% Role in the Global Made in China Sold in China Economy (Factory) (Market) Capital Flows To China From China High Growth Sectors Industrial Services Higher Growth Cities Coastal Inland 4 ©ERINA 2016 Northeast Asia International Conference for Economic Development (NICE) in Niigata D-ZHOU Firms with Severe Excess Capacity Source: “China’s Industrial Economy Report, 2015 Q3 Survey” led by Prof. Gan Jie, Center on Finance and Economic Growth, CKGSB 5 Challenges of China’s Industrial Firms Source: “China’s Industrial Economy Report, 2015 Q3 Survey” led by Prof. Gan Jie, Center on Finance and Economic Growth, CKGSB 6 ©ERINA 2016 Northeast Asia International Conference for Economic Development (NICE) in Niigata D-ZHOU Services as a Part of GDP 16 60 14.2 14 Services, etc., value added 50 12.7 (% of GDP) 12 10.6 Industry, value added (% of GDP) 40 9.6 9.5 10 9.2 8.4 7.8 7.7 8 7.3 30 6 20 3.9 4 Agriculture, value added 10 2 (% of GDP) 0 0 1990 2000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: World Bank The Future of “Sold in China” Consumption 35% of GDP in China vs 50-55% of GDP in other countries at similar stage of development USD 15 trillion if consumption becomes 50% of GDP in China, largest increase in world history Middle class Lower level: USD 9,000-16,000 household income • 54% of city households in 2012 • 13% in 2020 Upper level: USD 16,000 (Brazil) -34,000 (Italy) household income • 14% of city households in 2012 • 54% in 2020 • Foreign brands, quality vs price • Entertainment • Overseas trips • By 2020, there will be more than 200 million Chinese tourists going overseas. Source: McKinsey 8 ©ERINA 2016 Northeast Asia International Conference for Economic Development (NICE) in Niigata D-ZHOU A “New Normal” in Chinese Companies SOEs vs non-SOEs 98 Chinese companies made the Fortune 500 list in 2014 2nd highest after the US 75 SOEs incl. in the top 12 GDP: less than 40% by SOEs Number of SOEs: 150,000 Total Assets: RMB 100 trillion ($15.7 trillion) Employees: 30 million 10 ©ERINA 2016 Northeast Asia International Conference for Economic Development (NICE) in Niigata D-ZHOU A “New Normal” for SOE Reform Step 1: Categorization a) Group A: “strictly commercial entities” b) Group B: “those that serve governmental ends, such as power and healthcare suppliers” Step 2 and + (anticipated): Consolidation • Reduce the number of SOEs Privatization • Mixed ownership Governance • Professional management • “Leadership of the Chinese Communist Party” Globalization • Export infrastructure-building capabilities (One Belt, One Road) • Financing (AIIB) 11 Non-SOE Companies: 4 Generations G e.g. Found Business Leader Revenue Profit Globalization Innovation ($ bill) 1 Lenovo 1984 Computer 71 $33.9 b $0.6 b ‐ M&A (IBM Smart Phone Motorola ) ‐ No.1 PC vendor Huawei 1987 Telecom 71 $34.9 b $2.4 b ‐ 75% revenue No1 int’l patent Equipment ‐ No. 1 tel. eq. applicant vendor 2 Tencent 1998 On‐line and 44 $12.9 b $3.9 b ‐ Via mobile WeChat mobile VAS internet Alibaba 1999 E‐commerce 51 $12.3 b $3.9 b ‐ Via Internet Business model Fosun 1992 Investment 49 $9.6 b $1.1 b ‐ Investment Investment model 3 DJI 2006 Aerial 35 $0.5 b (?) ?? 70 percent of the All invented and Photography global market for developed in civilian drones China 4 ??? 2010+ Internet+ Late ‐‐‐ Start overseas? ?? 12 20s ©ERINA 2016 Northeast Asia International Conference for Economic Development (NICE) in Niigata D-ZHOU Chinese Companies’ Overseas M&As Overseas Investment/GDP 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% China 中 Japan 日 US 美国 Germany 国 本 德国 Sources: Bloomberg, PWC China’s Outbound Investment Before 2009 After 2009 China in the World • Factory • Market Primary Reasons • Resources • Moving up the value chain • Raw materials • Attractive pricing Primary Investors • SOEs • SOEs in infrastructures • POEs Primary Targets • Developing • Developed countries countries • Developing countries Industries • Coal • High‐tech • Metal • Services 14 ©ERINA 2016 Northeast Asia International Conference for Economic Development (NICE) in Niigata D-ZHOU Challenges when Going Global Shortage of global managers global mindset and practical experience, language skills and cultural skills legal and regulatory environments lack of a well known global brand Misconception of China in other countries Unfamiliarity to the local political and social crisis in other countries Foreign exchange controls in China (much less now) 15 The Fosun Case On the basis of two cases written by CKGSB Case Center under the supervision of Dean Xiang Bing and Prof. Mei Jianping ©ERINA 2016 Northeast Asia International Conference for Economic Development (NICE) in Niigata D-ZHOU Company Background Established in 1992 as a market survey company by Guo Guangchang(郭广昌), Liang Xinjun (梁信军) and a few other students of Fudan University in Shanghai. The company entered medical, pharmaceutical and real estate industries after 1995. Corporate strategy at the early stage: invest in leading companies in high-potential industries, such as mining and retail, selling at a very early stage and benefiting from the later exponential growth of those industries after restructuring and IPO. Guo Guangchang became a participant of CKGSB’s CEO Program in 2005. Liang Xinjun received his EMBA degree from CKGSB in 2007. Fosun International went public on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2007. In 2009, Fosun became the 2nd largest privately-owned enterprise in China with annual revenue of RMB 40.2 billion. In 2010, Fosun International started leading the globalization trend of Chinese privately-owned companies by announcing its new strategy of “combining China’s growth momentum with global resources”. 17 Path to Globalization 1992: 2007: 2012: 2014: 2015: 4 Fudan University • Yong'an P&C • Pramerica Fosun Life •Fidelidade •REN •Club Med graduates founded Insurance Insurance •Secret •Tom Tailor •Thomas Cook Fosun • Hainan Mining • Peak Re Recipe •ROC Oil •Ironshore • Minsheng Bank •BHF-Bank •IDERA •MIG* •Osborne •Hainan •Cirque du Soleil •Studio 8 Mining IPO •Phoenix Holdings • Tomatu 1994: 1998: 2003: 2004: 2008: 2010: 2011: 2013: Nanjing Zhaojin • Focus Club Folli Follie • Fosun • Fosun • St. John • Liberty 28 Pharma Pharma A Steel Mining Media Med • Alma Lasers •Lloyds •Forte share IPO •TJT • Saladax Chambers • Caruso • Atlantis Notes: 1. The above-mentioned companies/projects include investments made by Fosun, its subsidiaries and funds under its management; 2. Modified from a Fosun presentation. 18 ©ERINA 2016 Northeast Asia International Conference for Economic Development (NICE) in Niigata D-ZHOU Fosun’s Globalization Strategy Goal: to become a world-class investment group Overall strategy: “Capitalizing on China’s Growth Momentum by Leveraging Global Resources” Developing capabilities in two “drivers”: “insurance-oriented comprehensive financial capability” “global industrial integration capability taking roots in China” Global Resources Lifestyle InsuranceInsurance China Growth Momentum Fashion Capital Integration Investment 19 Selected Firms Fosun has Invested in Chinese companies listed on overseas markets Focus Media Tongjitang Chinese Medicines (TCM) Foreign companies invested in Club Med, a French company in high-end tourism Folli Follie, a Greek company in fashion industry St. John, a US women’s fashion company Caruso, an Italian men’s fashion company Tom Tailor, a German retailer Studio 8, an American film and video company in Hollywood Osborne, a Spanish ham and wine company Cirque du Soleil, one of the best-known performing arts companies from Canada BHF Kleinwort Benson, a German company specialized in private banking Hoshino Resorts Tomamu, a Japanese ski resort 20 ©ERINA 2016 Northeast Asia International Conference for Economic Development (NICE) in Niigata D-ZHOU Fosun and Club Med In 2009, Club Med started looking for a Chinese partner because The number of customers from China grew by 24% while the overall no. of tourists dropped by 9% after the financial crisis (US: -18%, Japan: -15%), only 1/60 of total customers The average spending per customer per day was 142 euros, higher than American and Japanese customers No resorts in China Criteria for selecting a Chinese Partner • Media and marketing capability • Relationship with the government • Investment in real estate industry Rationale on the Fosun side High potential of the Chinese tourism market Club Med’s brand and unique business model Attractive price on the stock market (PB=0.65 EV/EBITDA=6.5 Accord Hotels=11) In 2010, Fosun acquired 7.1% of the shares of Club Med at the price of 28.28 million euros and became the 3rd largest shareholder. (The largest and second largest shareholders had 10% and 9% shares, respectively.) 21 Fosun and Club Med – After the Deal Overall attitude: “a facilitator not a controller” (Guo) Expand the Chinese Market More than 10 New Resorts in China and overseas for Chinese customers • Synergy between Club Med and Fosun’s vacation properties Marketing • Targeted marketing at institutional clients, such as business associations, membership clubs, associations, chambers of commerce, banks, etc. • Marketing events and advertisements by Fosun and its media Global Integration Global sourcing • Reduced costs by 40% by purchasing in China • Purchase from Fosun companies in China, e.g. staff’s clothing purchased from Yuyuan Global sharing of human resource • Employees of Fosun’s companies in China transferred to Club Med in China and in other countries Results Sales in China grew from 2% per year to more than 50% per year.
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