Early Warning and Response Analysis July, 2016
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National Disaster Risk management Commission (NDRMC), Early Warning and Response Directorate Early Warning and Response Analysis July, 2016 This bulletin is prepared by the Early Warning and Response Directorate to coordinate and disseminate early warning and food security information. For any comments, questions or suggestions and/or to receive the bulletin on your email please write to [email protected], [email protected] If you are planning to contribute to the response effort, please inform NDRMC by Released on July, 2016 writing to [email protected] 2 Early Warning and Response Analysis July, 2016 Contents Acronyms .......................................................................................................................................................... 3 Early Warning and Response Summary for July, 2016 ..................................................................................... 4 Weather Conditions ........................................................................................................................................... 5 Nutrition ........................................................................................................................................................ …8 Appendix .......................................................................................................................................................... .9 Early Warning and Response Directorate, NDRMC 3 Early Warning and Response Analysis July, 2016 ACRONYMS: CHD: Child Health Day CPI: Consumer Price Index CSA: Central Statistical Agency DRMFSS: Disaster Risk Management and Food Security Sector EGTE: Ethiopian Grain Trade Enterprise EHNRI: Ethiopian Health and Nutrition Research Institute ENCU: Emergency Nutrition Coordination Unit FAO: Food and Agriculture Organization FMOH: Federal Ministry of Health GAM: Global Acute Malnutrition HRF: Humanitarian Response Fund IMC: International Medical Corps ITCZ: Inter Tropical Convergent Zone MAM: Moderate Acute Malnutrition NDRMC: National Disaster Risk management Commission NMA: National Meteorological Agency OTP: Outpatient Therapeutic Program PLW: Pregnant and Lactating Women SAM: Severe Acute Malnutrition TFU: Therapeutic Feeding Unit TSF: Targeted Supplementary Food TSFP: Targeted Supplementary Feeding Program WFP: World Food Programme Early Warning and Response Directorate, NDRMC 4 Early Warning and Response Analysis July, 2016 EARLY WARNING AND RESPONSE SUMMARY The expected normal to above normal rainfall over Oromiya (East and West Wellega, Jima, Ilu Aba Bora, West, East and North Shewa, Addis Ababa, Arsi and Bale), the whole zones of Gambela, Amhara (West and East Gojam, Bahir Dar Zuriya, North and South Gonder), Benishangul Gumuz, the whole zones of Tigray and SNNPR (Hadiya, Guragie, Kefa, Bench Maji, Wolayita and Sidama) would favor the on going season’s agricultural activities. Therefore the concerned personnel should exploit the expected conducive moisture condition and take appropriate measures ahead of time. The expected normal rainfall particularly over pastoral areas of the country like Afar (Zone 1,3,4 and 5) and Somali (Jijiga and Settee Zones) would favor the availability of pasture and drinking water in the areas. The anticipated heavy falls in some areas of Meher growing areas would causes flash flood in some low-lying areas and near riverbanks including in areas where the soils with poor percolation capacity. Thus, appropriate prevention measure should be undertaken by the concerned bodies ahead of time. In most cases floods occur in the country as a result of prolonged heavy rainfall causing rivers to overflow and inundate areas along the river banks in lowland plains. Thus preparedness actions including dissemination of early warning information to population at risk, reinforcing flood protection structures in at-risk areas, and strengthening community mobilization and sensitization, communication between highland and downstream areas to prepare for likely runoffs, timely evacuation of communities at risk to higher grounds and provision of immediate emergency support is recommended. The ongoing massive relief supply in the drought affected areas continued to contribiute for stable market price trends. Based on the analysis findings the hotspot woreda classification, there are 206 priority one; 154 priority two and 60 priority three woredas this classification is to be used from July – September 2016. This shows a decrease compared from the classification of March 2016.The classification findings are very important to estimate TSF and TFP beneficiaries as well as for assessment, resource planning, resource allocation and intervention in the affected woredas As of June 28th, 51% of specialised food for MAM treatment have been dispatched in addition the back-log for April and May is succesfully being addressed with dispatch rates at 92% for April and 89% for May. A total of 1,617MT of specilised food for the tretment of MAM is in the country with an additional 17,873MT procured and in the pipeline, therefore based on the current hotspot classification the TSFP pipeline for priority 1 woredas is secure until October. Early Warning and Response Directorate, NDRMC 5 Early Warning and Response Analysis July, 2016 WEATHER CONDITIONS and parts of central Somali experienced falls ranging from 25 - 50 mm. There was little or June 2016 weather conditions no rainfall over the remaining parts of the country. 64 145 22108 22 58 57 65 600 208 56 202 2 500 21 13 147119 1 87 400 135 30 2 153 64 377 300 244 32 48 5 216 73 142 100 68 64 200 226 36 66 290 53 5 100 123 101 0 3 79 195 50 8 269 78 30 158 50 204 272 83 22 339 89 216 84 37 25 346 99 50 321 298 201 174128 96 12 370 65 122 188 88 194 372 254 40101 197 228 235 102 103 119 102 171 103 44 221 107 578 141 133 141 83 90 101 60 74 54 150 83 123 38 45 131 122 121 125 111 58 58 0 97 10446 124 17 51 4 Map 1: Rainfall distribution in mm for the month of June 2016 Source: NMA During the month of June 2016, a few areas of northwestern SNNPR, western Oromiya and Map 2: Percent of normal rainfall distribution for southeastern Benishangul Gumuz exhibited falls June 2016 greater than 300 mm. Most parts of Benishangul Source: NMA Gumuz, parts of western Oromiya, a few areas of northwestern SNNPR and southeastern As indicated in map 2, with the exception of parts Gambela received falls ranging from 200 – 300 of southern Tigray, northern half of Afar, most mm. Northern parts of Benishangul Gumuz, parts of Somali and packet areas of northern central and pocket areas of Oromiya, most parts Amhara, central parts of SNNPR and pocket areas of of Gambela, western Tigray, central and parts of Oromiya most parts of Kiremt rain benefiting of northern SNNPR and most parts of western areas experienced normal to above normal rainfall. half of Amhara experienced falls ranging from 100 – 200 mm. Most parts of the central and eastern Tigray, parts of central, eastern and southeastern Amhara, central eastern and southwestern Oromiya and southern parts of SNNPR experienced falls ranging from 50 – 100 mm. A few ares of eastern Tigray, a few areas of northeastern Amhara, northern and southern tip of Afar, parts of southern Oromiya Early Warning and Response Directorate, NDRMC 6 Early Warning and Response Analysis July, 2016 6 is one of the pick months of Kiremt season. 12 3 6 5 3 6 6 30 13 7 With the exception of southern and southeastern 20 1 25 4 2 parts of Ethiopia the rest of the country suppose 16 1 16 10 20 11 10 1 14 to get better rainfall amount and distribution at 8 53 18 10 10 2 15 13 15 21 11 14 13 19 this time of the year. Thus, widespread rainfall 8 13 21 9 2 14 10 0 1 19 13 10 13 3 coverage is expected in most parts of the Kiremt 23 10 10 13 26 23 13 7 5 23 8 18 9 6 benefiting areas during the month. Moreover, 27 16 13 23 29 26 2217 18 7 16 13 16 23 14 18 26 24 5 13 some areas of western and northwestern parts of 22 23 21 24 13 19 12 17 11 16 24 17 27 21 the country presume to get highest amount of 17 16 18 8 12 23 9 4 13 7 rainfall during the month of July. 12 5 8 7 13 13 14 9 12 7 0 10 128 6 4 During the month of July 2016, in relation to 3 the better strength of Kiremt rain producing weather systems wide spread rainfall amount 3 and distribution is anticipated over western half Map 3: Number of Rainy days for the month June of the country including eastern and 2016 northeastern parts of the county with chance of Source: NMA heavy falls together with flash flood at places. Therefore Oromiya(East and West Wellega, Pocket areas of western Oromiya and southeastern Jima, Ilu Aba Bora, West, East and North tip of Benishangul Gumuz received fall in greater than 25 rainy days. Most parts of southern half of Shewa, Addis Ababa, Arsi and Bale), the whole eastern Benishangul Gumuz, a few areas of zones of Gambela, Amhara (West and East northwestern SNNPR and western and parts of Gojam, Bahir Dar Zuriya, North and South central Oromiya received falls in 20 -25 rainy Gonder), Benishangul Gumuz, the whole zones days. Parts of central and western Amhara, most of Tigray and SNNPR ( Hadiya, Guragie, Kefa, parts of northern half of Benishangul Gumuz, Bench Maji, Wolayita and Sidama) will have central and a few areas of eastern Oromiya, normal to above normal rainfall with a chance eastern Gambela and northern parts of SNNPR of heavy falls at places which would causes received falls in 15 - 20 rainy days. Parts of flash flood in some pocket areas. Thus, western and central Tigray, most parts of Amhara, appropriate prevention measure should be northern tip of Benishangul Gumuz, most parts undertaken by the concerned bodies ahead of of Gambela, parts of western, central and eastern time in low-lying areas and near riverbanks SNNPR , parts of eastern and a few areas of including in areas where the soils with poor Oromiya received falls in 10 - 15 rainy days. percolation capacity. Moreover mainly normal Consequently, the observed good distribution of with isolated above normal rainfall is expected rainfall could have positive impact on the ongoing over Amhara(North and South Wollo including season’s agricultural activities in the North Shewa), Oromiya (West and East abovementioned areas.