National Disaster Risk management Commission (NDRMC), Early Warning and Response Directorate

Early Warning and Response Analysis

July, 2016

This bulletin is prepared by the Early Warning and Response Directorate to coordinate and disseminate early warning and food security information.

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If you are planning to contribute to the response effort, please inform NDRMC by Released on July, 2016 writing to [email protected]

2 Early Warning and Response Analysis July, 2016

Contents

Acronyms ...... 3

Early Warning and Response Summary for July, 2016 ...... 4

Weather Conditions ...... 5

Nutrition ...... …8

Appendix ...... 9

Early Warning and Response Directorate, NDRMC

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ACRONYMS:

CHD: Child Health Day

CPI: Consumer Price Index

CSA: Central Statistical Agency

DRMFSS: Disaster Risk Management and Food Security Sector

EGTE: Ethiopian Grain Trade Enterprise

EHNRI: Ethiopian Health and Nutrition Research Institute

ENCU: Emergency Nutrition Coordination Unit

FAO: Food and Agriculture Organization

FMOH: Federal Ministry of Health

GAM: Global Acute Malnutrition

HRF: Humanitarian Response Fund

IMC: International Medical Corps

ITCZ: Inter Tropical Convergent Zone

MAM: Moderate Acute Malnutrition

NDRMC: National Disaster Risk management Commission

NMA: National Meteorological Agency

OTP: Outpatient Therapeutic Program

PLW: Pregnant and Lactating Women

SAM: Severe Acute Malnutrition

TFU: Therapeutic Feeding Unit

TSF: Targeted Supplementary Food

TSFP: Targeted Supplementary Feeding Program

WFP: World Food Programme

Early Warning and Response Directorate, NDRMC

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EARLY WARNING AND RESPONSE SUMMARY

 The expected normal to above normal rainfall over Oromiya (East and West Wellega, Jima, Ilu Aba Bora, West, East and North , Addis Ababa, Arsi and Bale), the whole zones of Gambela, Amhara (West and East Gojam, Zuriya, North and South Gonder), Benishangul Gumuz, the whole zones of Tigray and SNNPR (Hadiya, Guragie, Kefa, Bench

Maji, Wolayita and Sidama) would favor the on going season’s agricultural activities. Therefore the concerned personnel should exploit the expected conducive moisture condition and take appropriate measures ahead of time.

 The expected normal rainfall particularly over pastoral areas of the country like Afar (Zone 1,3,4 and 5) and Somali (Jijiga and Settee Zones) would favor the availability of pasture and drinking water in the areas.

 The anticipated heavy falls in some areas of Meher growing areas would causes flash flood in some low-lying areas and near riverbanks including in areas where the soils with poor percolation capacity. Thus, appropriate prevention measure should be undertaken by the concerned bodies ahead of time.

 In most cases floods occur in the country as a result of prolonged heavy rainfall causing rivers to overflow and inundate areas along the river banks in lowland plains. Thus preparedness actions including dissemination of early warning information to population at risk, reinforcing flood protection structures in at-risk areas, and strengthening community mobilization and sensitization, communication between highland and downstream areas to prepare for likely runoffs, timely evacuation of communities at risk to higher grounds and provision of immediate emergency support is recommended.

 The ongoing massive relief supply in the drought affected areas continued to contribiute for stable market price trends.

 Based on the analysis findings the hotspot woreda classification, there are 206 priority one; 154 priority two and 60 priority three woredas this classification is to be used from July – September 2016. This shows a decrease compared from the classification of March 2016.The classification findings are very important to estimate TSF and TFP beneficiaries as well as for assessment, resource planning, resource allocation and intervention in the affected woredas

 As of June 28th, 51% of specialised food for MAM treatment have been dispatched in addition the back-log for April and May is succesfully being addressed with dispatch rates at 92% for April and 89% for May.

 A total of 1,617MT of specilised food for the tretment of MAM is in the country with an additional 17,873MT procured and in the pipeline, therefore based on the current hotspot classification the TSFP pipeline for priority 1 woredas is secure until October.

Early Warning and Response Directorate, NDRMC

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WEATHER CONDITIONS and parts of central Somali experienced falls ranging from 25 - 50 mm. There was little or June 2016 weather conditions no rainfall over the remaining parts of the country.

64 145 22108 22 58 57 65 600 208 56 202 2 500 21 13 147119 1 87 400 135 30 2 153 64 377 300 244 32 48 5 216 73 142 100 68 64 200 226 36 66 290 53 5 100 123 101 0 3 79 195 50 8 269 78 30 158 50 204 272 83 22 339 89 216 84 37 25 346 99 50 321 298 201 174128 96 12 370 65 122 188 88 194 372 254 40101 197 228 235 102 103 119 102 171 103 44 221 107 578 141 133 141 83 90 101 60 74 54 150 83 123 38 45 131 122 121 125 111 58 58 0 97 10446 124 17

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Map 1: Rainfall distribution in mm for the month of June 2016

Source: NMA During the month of June 2016, a few areas of northwestern SNNPR, western Oromiya and Map 2: Percent of normal rainfall distribution for southeastern Benishangul Gumuz exhibited falls June 2016 greater than 300 mm. Most parts of Benishangul Source: NMA Gumuz, parts of western Oromiya, a few areas of northwestern SNNPR and southeastern As indicated in map 2, with the exception of parts Gambela received falls ranging from 200 – 300 of southern Tigray, northern half of Afar, most mm. Northern parts of Benishangul Gumuz, parts of Somali and packet areas of northern central and pocket areas of Oromiya, most parts Amhara, central parts of SNNPR and pocket areas of of Gambela, western Tigray, central and parts of Oromiya most parts of Kiremt rain benefiting of northern SNNPR and most parts of western areas experienced normal to above normal rainfall. half of Amhara experienced falls ranging from 100 – 200 mm. Most parts of the central and eastern Tigray, parts of central, eastern and southeastern Amhara, central eastern and southwestern Oromiya and southern parts of

SNNPR experienced falls ranging from 50 – 100 mm. A few ares of eastern Tigray, a few areas of northeastern Amhara, northern and southern tip of Afar, parts of southern Oromiya

Early Warning and Response Directorate, NDRMC

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6 is one of the pick months of Kiremt season. 12 3 6 5 3 6 6 30 13 7 With the exception of southern and southeastern 20 1 25 4 2 parts of the rest of the country suppose 16 1 16 10 20 11 10 1 14 to get better rainfall amount and distribution at 8 53 18 10 10 2 15 13 15 21 11 14 13 19 this time of the year. Thus, widespread rainfall 8 13 21 9 2 14 10 0 1 19 13 10 13 3 coverage is expected in most parts of the Kiremt 23 10 10 13 26 23 13 7 5 23 8 18 9 6 benefiting areas during the month. Moreover, 27 16 13 23 29 26 2217 18 7 16 13 16 23 14 18 26 24 5 13 some areas of western and northwestern parts of 22 23 21 24 13 19 12 17 11 16 24 17 27 21 the country presume to get highest amount of 17 16 18 8 12 23 9 4 13 7 rainfall during the month of July. 12 5 8 7 13 13 14 9 12 7 0 10 128 6 4 During the month of July 2016, in relation to 3 the better strength of Kiremt rain producing weather systems wide spread rainfall amount 3 and distribution is anticipated over western half Map 3: Number of Rainy days for the month June of the country including eastern and 2016 northeastern parts of the county with chance of Source: NMA heavy falls together with flash flood at places. Therefore Oromiya(East and West Wellega, Pocket areas of western Oromiya and southeastern Jima, Ilu Aba Bora, West, East and North tip of Benishangul Gumuz received fall in greater than 25 rainy days. Most parts of southern half of Shewa, Addis Ababa, Arsi and Bale), the whole eastern Benishangul Gumuz, a few areas of zones of Gambela, Amhara (West and East northwestern SNNPR and western and parts of Gojam, Bahir Dar Zuriya, North and South central Oromiya received falls in 20 -25 rainy Gonder), Benishangul Gumuz, the whole zones days. Parts of central and western Amhara, most of Tigray and SNNPR ( Hadiya, Guragie, Kefa, parts of northern half of Benishangul Gumuz, Bench , Wolayita and Sidama) will have central and a few areas of eastern Oromiya, normal to above normal rainfall with a chance eastern Gambela and northern parts of SNNPR of heavy falls at places which would causes received falls in 15 - 20 rainy days. Parts of flash flood in some pocket areas. Thus, western and central Tigray, most parts of Amhara, appropriate prevention measure should be northern tip of Benishangul Gumuz, most parts undertaken by the concerned bodies ahead of of Gambela, parts of western, central and eastern time in low-lying areas and near riverbanks SNNPR , parts of eastern and a few areas of including in areas where the soils with poor Oromiya received falls in 10 - 15 rainy days. percolation capacity. Moreover mainly normal Consequently, the observed good distribution of with isolated above normal rainfall is expected rainfall could have positive impact on the ongoing over Amhara(North and South Wollo including season’s agricultural activities in the North Shewa), Oromiya (West and East abovementioned areas. Harargie), Somali (Jijiga and City Zones), Dire Weather outlook and possible impact for the Dawa, Harari, Afar(Zone 1,3,4 and 5) and coming month/July 1-31, 2016 SNNPR(some areas of South Omo and Segen Hizboch). Mainly dry and sunny weather Normally during the month of July the rain condition is expected for the remaining parts of producing systems will get better strength and it the country.

Early Warning and Response Directorate, NDRMC

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FLOOD SITUATION Lanfuro, and woredas in Siltie zone; , , and In Ethiopia, flood usually takes place at the peak woredas in Kembata zone; of the kiremt rainy season (July and August) in Town and . flood-prone areas. Somali: Kelafo, Mustahil, Ferfer, Gode, In most cases floods occur in the country as a Bera’ano, Adadile, and East Imy woredas in result of prolonged heavy rainfall causing rivers to Shebelle zone; West Imy, Cherati, Dolo Bay, overflow and inundate areas along the river banks Elkere, Hargele and Dolo Bay, woredas in Afder in lowland plains. Among the major river flood- zone; Dolo Ado woreda in Liben zone; Erer, prone areas are parts of and Afar regions Mieso, Hadigala, Afdem and Shinile woredas in lying along the upper, middle and downstream Sitti zone; and Babile and Jigjiga woredas in plains of the ; parts of Somali region Fafan zone. along the Wabe Shebelle, Genale and Dawa Rivers; low-lying areas of Gambella along the Oromia: Liben woreda in ; and Baro, Gilo, Alwero and Akobo Rivers; down- Legehida, Gassera, Agarfa and Gololcha woredas stream areas along the Omo and Bilate Rivers in in ; Dodota, Zeway , and Hitosa SNNPR and the extensive floodplains surrounding in ; Boset, , Dugda, Lome, Wenji Lake Tana and the banks of Gumera, Rib and and Bora in ; , Sebeta Megech Rivers in Amhara Flash flood is Awas and Illu in Southwest Shewa zone; Gelana characterized by sudden onset with little lead time and Abaya woredas in ; Girar Jarso, for early warning and often resulting in Yaya Gulele, and Kimbibit woredas in North considerable damage on lives, livelihoods and Shewa zone; Merti, Seru, and Chole woredas in property. Arsi zone; Shala, Siraro and Shashemene Zuria woredas in ; and Hawi Gudina, FLOOD RISK AREAS:- Floods are anticipated Oda Bultum and Habro woredas in West Hararghe in many areas where normal to above-normal zone. rains are expected. Predicting the occurrence of flash floods in particular areas could be Tigray: South, Southwestern, Central and challenging hence areas other than the below Southeastern parts including Alamata, Raya listed woredas could be affected. Based on the Azebo, Adwa, Maichew, and Humera. NMA forecast for kiremt and considering information from historical data, analogue years Afar: , , , Ab’ala and and regional information, the following areas are woredas in Zone 2; Chifra, Dubti, identified as likely to be affected by river and Afambo and Aysayita woredas in Zone 1; flash floods during the upcoming kiremt season. , Bure Mudaytu, , Awash SNNPR: , and Mirab-Abaya Fentale, and Mille woredas in Zone 3 and woredas in ; , Teru and Yallo woredas in Zone 4. , , Jinka Town, and Amhara: Fogera, Libo Kemkem, Simada, and in ; Loka Abaya and Dera woredas in South Gonder zone; Dembia, Awasa Zuria woredas in Sidama zone; , Gonder Zuria, and Chilga woredas in North Dugna Fango, Damot Woide, and Gonder zone; Semen Achefer, Debub Achefer, woredas in ; Shashego and Limu Bahir Dar Zuria, and Dega Damot woredas in zones in ; Meskan, and West Gojjam; , Gidan, Guba Lafto, Habru, woredas in ; Siltie, Sankura, Meket, and Kobo woredas in ;

Early Warning and Response Directorate, NDRMC

8 Early Warning and Response Analysis July, 2016

Kalu and Tehuledere woredas and Ambassel, NUTRITION Dessie and Kombolcha Towns in South Wollo

zone; Kewet, and Antsokia Gemza woredas and Tarma Ber and Efratana Gidim Towns in North In May a total of 28,194 SAM admissions was Shewa zone; Dewa Chefa, Artuma Fursi, and Jile reported (86% reporting rate), severe acute Timuga woredas and Kemissie Town in Oromia malnutrition admissions decreased countrywide zone; woreda in Wag Hemra zone. expect in Afar and SNNP in which admissions Gambella: Gambela Zuria, Itang, , , have remained relatively stable. The proportion SAM children admitted to stabliation centres Dimma woredas in Agnuak zone; Lare, Jikawo, continues to increase as per past trends. Since the Akobo and Wantowa woredas in Nuer zone. beginning of the year 145,461 cases have been Benishangul Gumuz: Asosa woreda. Pocket admitted which equates to 81% of the estimated areas in Dire Dawa Administrative Council, caseload (86% reporting rate). Harari region and Addis Ababa City As of June 28th, 51% of specialised food for In line with the anticipated flood situation in the MAM treatment have been dispatched in addition above-mentioned areas immediate early warning, the back-log for April and May is succesfully mitigation and preparedness measures including being addressed with dispatch rates at 92% for scaling up water harvesting, water treatment, April and 89% for May. sanitation and hygiene promotion, prevention and Since the being of the year 490,084 MAM cases surveillance of communicable diseases, enhancing (children and pregnant women) have been reached other health and nutrition interventions ought to with specialized foods, 76% of the expected be conducted to minimize the likely impacts of caseload. flood on lives and livelihoods. Similarly, preparedness actions including dissemination of A total of 1,617MT of specilised food for the early warning information to population at risk, tretment of MAM is in country with an additional 17,873MT procured and in the pipeline, therefore reinforcing flood protection structures in at-risk based on the current hotspot classification the areas, and strengthening community mobilization TSFP pipeline for priority 1 woredas is secure and sensitization, communication between until October. highland and downstream areas to prepare for likely runoffs, timely evacuation of communities For the month of July, NGO coverage in Priority 1 at risk to higher grounds and provision of woredas is high with 88% covered by at least 1 NGO. immediate emergency support is recommended. It

is also advised that regional flood task forces are reactivated and multi-agency flood impact rapid The Belg assessments in all regions were assessments are conducted and findings shared completed within the time-frame and reports sent timely relevant actors at regional and federal to federal level in addition, the hotspot level. Precedence should be given for pre- classification process was initiated with regional positioning of food and non-food items for level classification level completed by the end of immediate response with particular emphasis to June and federal level review completed in the first week of July. areas that may become inaccessible.

Early Warning and Response Directorate, NDRMC

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Fig. 1: National (Ethiopia) Trends in Severe Acute Malnutrition Admissions (2010 – 2016)

Early Warning and Response Directorate, NDRMC

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Early Warning and Response Directorate, NDRMC

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Annex 1

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Annex 2

Early Warning and Response Directorate, NDRMC