POST-EARTHQUAKE RAPID FOOD SECURI TY ASSESSMENT

MARCH 2006

VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS AND MAPPING (VAM) UNIT WORLD FOOD PROGRAMME, PAKISTAN

Rapid Food Security Assessment, March 2006 World Food Programme, Pakistan © 2006 United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) # 3, St.-2, F-8/3, Islamabad, Pakistan Vulnerability Analysis and Mapping (VAM) Unit Chief: Sahib Haq Tel: +92-51-111-937937/3544 Email: [email protected] POST-EARTHQUAKE RAPID FOOD SECURITY ASSESSMENT – MARCH 2006

Table of Contents

Table of Contents i List of Annexure i List of Tables ii List of Figures ii List of Maps ii Abbreviations and Acronyms iii Acknowledgments iv

Table of Contents Executive Summary 1 1. Background 3 1.1 Overview 3 1.2 Response to the Disaster 3 1.3 Civil Society Response 3 1.4 International Community Response 4 2. Objective 4 3. Methodology 4 4. Findings 4 4.1 Population 5 4.2 Economic Losses 6 4.3 Losses of Manpower 6 4.4 Damages to Houses 7 4.5 Livelihoods 8 4.5.1 Agriculture 9 4.5.2 Livestock 10 4.5.3 Off-farm Activities 11 4.6 Education 12 4.7 Health 12 4.8 Availability of Potable Water 13 4.9 Communication 13 4.10 Market Prices of Food Commodities 15 4.11 Level of Poverty 16 4.12 Ownership or Movement of Vehicles 16 4.13 Usage of Technology 17 5. Problems and Priorities of the Communities 17 6. Food Insecurity 19 6.1 Transient Food Insecurity 19 6.2 Overall Food Insecurity 20 7. Recommendations 20

Annexes

Annex 1 Schools Damaged by Earthquake 35 Annex 2 Health Facilities Damaged by Earthquake 36 Annex 3 Food Insecurity Ranking of Union Councils 37 Annex 4 Proposed WFP beneficiaries 42 Annex 5 Community Priorities ( First) 44 Annex 6 Community Priorities (First) 45 Annex 7 Community Priorities (All) 46 Annex 8 Community Priorities (All) 47

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List of Tables

Table 1 Total Population in Earthquake Affected Areas 5 Table 2 Deaths Caused by Earthquake 2005 6 Table 3 Injured by Earthquake 2005 7 Table 4 Houses Destroyed by Earthquake 2005 8 Table 5 Decrease in Wheat Crop Area by Earthquake 2005 10 Table 6 Number of Livestock ( Cow Equivalent) Deaths Caused by Earthquake 2005 10 Table 7 Primary Schools Collapsed by Earthquake 2005 12 Table 8 Distance from Tehsil to Union Council 13 Table 9 Poor Access in Earthquake Affected Areas 14 Table 10 Correlation of Distance with Market Prices 15 Table 11 Food Insecurity in Earthquake Affected Areas 20

List of Figures Figure 1 Loss of Household Capability 7 Figure 2 Average Monthly Income 11 Figure 3 Labour Workers 11 Figure 4 Schools Complete Damage 12 Figure 5 Households having access to Piped Water Before & After Earthquake 2005 13 Figure 6 Access and Communication 14 Figure 7 Union Councils with %age of Kacha houses 16 Figure 8 Vehicles Ownership & Movement 16 Figure 9 Technology Usage 17 Figure 10 Priorities of Communities 17 Figure 11 Major Priorities in Earthquake Affected Areas 18 Figure 12 First Priority 18 Figure 13 Transient Food Insecurity in Earthquake Affected Areas 19

List of Maps

Map 1 Population in Earthquake Affected Areas 23 Map 2 Deaths in Earthquake Affected Areas 24 Map 3 Injured Persons in Earthquake Affected Areas 25 Map 4 Houses completely damaged in Earthquake Affected Areas 26 Map 5 Decrease in Wheat Crop Area (%) 27 Map 6 Live Stock Losses in Earthquake Affected Areas 28 Map 7 Percentage of Schools damaged due to earthquake 29 Map 8 Unavailability of Piped Water in Earthquake Affected Areas 30 Map 9 Access in Earthquake Affected Areas 31 Map 10 Kacha Houses in Earthquake Affected Areas 32 Map 11 Transient Food Insecurity in Earthquake Affected Areas 33 Map 12 Overall Food Insecurity in Earthquake Affected Areas 34

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GLOSSARY & ACRONYMS

AJK Azad Jammu Kashmir CCA Common Country Assessment EQ Earthquake ERRA Earthquake Rehabilitation & Reconstruction Authority FAO Food and Agriculture Organization FFW Food-for-Work GDP Gross Domestic Product GFD Gross Fiscal Deficit GIS Geographic Information System HH House Hold HMIS National Health Management Information System (Pakistan) ILO International Labour Organization JBIC Japan Bank for International Organization Km Kilo-meter MCH Mother and Child Healthcare MINFAL Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Livestock MT Metric Ton NGOs Non- Governmental Organizations NNS National Nutrition Survey NWFP North West Frontier Province OCHA United Nations Office for the Coordination for Humanitarian Affairs PAK Pakistan Administered Kashmir PRA Participatory Rural Appraisal RFSA Rapid Food Security Assessment UCs Union Councils UN United Nations UNDAC United Nations Disaster Assessment UNICEF United Nations Children Fund VAM Vulnerability Analysis And Mapping Unit WFP World Food Programme

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Acknowledgements

The World Food Programme is grateful to all the government officials, NGOs and community representatives who supported the Rapid Food Security Assessment and assisted the team in data collection. I am thankful to the district administration of all the seven districts for providing basic information on earthquake damages. I would like to thank the staff of the WFP sub-offices in Battagram, Muzaffarabad and Bagh for extending all possible support for enabling the mission to complete the task uninterrupted.

I am grateful to, and highly appreciate the dedicated field work of Mr. Irfan Sarwar, Mr. Muhammad Siddique and Mr. Tariq Mehmud, who worked without any break, for 25 days to survey and complete the checklists of 229 Union Councils.

Finally, I would like to mention the outstanding work for data entry and mapping of this report by the VAM staff, who worked late into the night and completed their task with utmost commitment.

Team Members

Sahib Haq (Team Leader)

Data Analysis and Report Writing Sahib Haq, Head of VAM Unit, WFP, Pakistan Data Collection Irfan Sarwar (VAM Unit, WFP, Pakistan) and Muhammad Siddique (VAM Unit, WFP, Pakistan) Screening Tariq Mehmud (Bureau of Statistics, Peshawar)

Data Screening and Tabulation Afsheen Anwar

Mapping Muhammad Almas

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POST-EARTHQUAKE RAPID FOOD SECURITY ASSESSMENT

Executive Summary

A Post-Earthquake Rapid Food Security Assessment (RFSA) was carried out by the Vulnerability Analysis and Mapping (VAM) unit in the seven earthquake affected food insecure districts of Pakistan Administered Kashmir (PAK) and North West Frontier Province (NWFP). The RFSA was aimed at identifying the food insecure Union Councils (UCs) in these seven districts.

The districts covered are Muzaffarabad, Bagh and Neelum in PAK and Mansehra, Battagram, Shangla and Kohistan in NWFP. There are 229 UCs in 21 tehsils of these seven districts. The RFSA team visited 224 UCs leaving out the 5 UCs of Kala Dhakka (tribal area) due to security reasons. However, basic data was collected for all the 229 UCs.

The highest casualties were recorded in 19 UCs of Muzaffarabad and Mansehra (Balakot), where casualties were in the range of 1001 to 3000 per each UC. The 2nd highest casualties (501-1000) were reported in 24 UCs , half of which fall in Muzaffarabad, while remaining half are in Mansehra, Battagram and Bagh districts. Based on the loss of working force, about 7.2% of the households lost at least one person capable of livelihood earning. This figure is 25% in Balakot and Hatian tehsils.

In 114 union councils (50%) more than 80% of the houses collapsed or were heavily damaged, while some union councils were completely destroyed. Majority of these union councils are in Muzaffarabad followed by Bagh and Mansehra districts. The devastation caused immense loss of life and also deprived the survivors of valuables such as cash, jewellery, food stocks and other belongings.

Agriculture and livestock rearing are the primary sources of employment in rural areas. In 29 union councils, majority in Muzaffarabad and Mansehra (Balakot), wheat cultivation declined by more than 60% because of land destruction, limited manpower capacity and drastic reduction of other resources (like water etc.). Above 40% decline was recorded in 44 union councils. The average decline recorded in these districts was 28%. Except for 15 union councils in the outer region, all union councils recorded damage to livestock. In 6 union councils of Muzaffarabad, it was above 80%. On average, the damage to livestock was recorded as 14%.

In 20 UCs, 100% of the schools got demolished. Major damage was caused in Allai tehsil of Battagram district, where 94% of the primary schools were either destroyed or heavily damaged. This figure was 84% in Balakot, 80% in Battagram and 75% in Besham. On average 51% of the education facilities were destroyed in the region.

The most food insecure group is the labor force. Per findings of the RFSA, on average, about 10% of the work-force is government employees, 7.6% are working in private sector, 5.4% are abroad and 76% are working as labourers both in and outside the area.

At present, there is no proper water (piped & hand pump) supply available to majority of the population as piped (including hand pump) water facility is non existent in 38 union councils (except Kala Dhakka- tribal area) majority of which are in Kohistan district (50%). In 54 union councils, only up to 10% of households have access to piped (including hand pump) water. These union councils are located in the less accessible areas of all the seven districts. Waterborne diseases are frequent, while health facilities are inadequate or almost non-existent.

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In these seven districts the road length leading to UCs is 4807 km. It is surprising that 6 UCs have no road link with the market. About 37% of the road network is not metalled.

Based on the Accessibility, 57 UCs are the most inaccessible, with majority in Kohistan, followed by Neelum district. Mansehra and Muzaffarabad proper have relatively less accessibility problems.

The three predominant technological factors pertaining to crop production, i,e., Seed, Tractor and Thresher were analyzed. The usage of mechanized farming is the lowest (below 10%) in Havelli, Palas, Pattan, Autmuqam, Sharda, Chakessar, Martung and Puran Tehsils.

Four major problems were identified by the communities, which are, lack of potable water, roads, education facilities and medical care. Construction of roads, rehabilitation and access to safe potable water were cited as priorities.

Based on all indicators of food insecurity, the UCs were divided into four zones, i.e., very high, high, medium and low food insecure. In total 82 UCs are ranked as “very high” food insecure. Among these, 23 are in Kohistan, 10 in Neelum, 18 in Muzaffarabad and 9 in Shangla. This accounts for 36% of the total UCs. It covers 45% UCs of Muzzaffarabad, 61% of Kohistan and 100% of Neelum districts. All the top food insecure UCs are in the most inaccessible areas of their respective districts.

This report provides a good insight into the problems and issues that exist in the area at union council level. It also gives a comprehensive database for various indicators such as, destruction, poverty and intensity of food insecurity at micro level, to better understand and plan for rehabilitation. This report will be a very useful tool and guide for the prioritization and better targeting of recovery interventions.

People crossing the washed away road near Muzaffarabad in search of Food and Shelter

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1. BACKGROUND

1.1. Overview

On October 8, 2005, at 8:50 PST, an earthquake measuring 7.6 on the Richter scale jolted Pakistan, Afghanistan and India. The earthquake epicenter was located 100 kilometers north-northeast of Islamabad, near the city of Muzaffarabad, along a fault passing through the Indian subcontinent. Aftershocks ranging in magnitude from 5.0 to 6.0 have been recorded in the region.

The October 8, 2005 earthquake was the worst calamity in the country’s history in terms of lives lost, injuries sustained, and destruction of infrastructure and economic assets. It hit 9 districts, four in Pakistan Administered Kashmir (PAK) and five in North West Frontier Province (NWFP). According to Government of Pakistan figures, as of November 3, approximately 73,000 people had died and more than 70,000 had been severely injured or disabled. Over 2.8 million persons have been left without shelter, and about 2.3 million persons without adequate food.

According to initial assessment for relief operation, 7 districts were found to be the most adversely affected, and these had been classified as already food insecure prior to the earthquake. These districts are Muzaffarabad, Neelum and Bagh in PAK and Mansehra, Battagram, Shangla and Kohistan in NWFP. Two districts, i.e., Abbottabad (NWFP) and Neelum (PAK) were partially damaged.

1.2. Response to the Disaster

The Government of Pakistan responded quickly to the earthquake emergency and also appealed to the nation and international communities to help in rescue and relief operations. Army Divisions moved into NWFP and AJK and set up five advanced staging posts for facilitation and distribution of relief goods. Keeping in view the rough mountainous terrain, blockage of roads network and remoteness of the affected areas, the Government of Pakistan requested for an unprecedented number of helicopters to assist with the distribution of relief goods. A fleet of more than 125 helicopters and transport aircrafts, both foreign and domestic, were used in the relief activities.

Pakistan Army facilitated most of the distribution of relief goods in each affected district. The government resolved to start the rehabilitation work immediately after the winter season. For this purpose the President has established an Earthquake Reconstruction and Rehabilitation Authority (ERRA) to oversee the rebuilding and repair of damaged infrastructure, including housing, roads, bridges, government buildings, schools and hospitals.

1.3. Civil society response

The people of Pakistan showed great unity and solidarity with the earthquake survivors. People from all walks of life contributed generously in cash, kind and personal services for the relief operations. A host of international and local Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) have worked to provide emergency relief in affected areas.

The private sector has also played a vital role in extending support to the earthquake affected population, with donations ranging from cash assistance to business services. Telecommunication companies were quick to provide telecommunication services in the affected areas in order to ensure smooth relief operations. International and national courier services used their logistics expertise for incoming international relief supplies arriving on chartered flights. Most of the large organizations were active in relief operations and also in the provision of temporary shelter, ahead of the severe cold winter.

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1.4. International community response

The Government of Pakistan requested international assistance, which started arriving within days of the earthquake. The United Nations immediately deployed its Disaster Assessment and Coordination (UNDAC) Team to provide technical assistance to assess the scale of the disaster and help manage the international response. All UN agencies immediately started providing relief aid to the earthquake affected people.

World Food Programme was prompt in arranging food supply for about one million affected people out of 2.3 million food insecure population, together with food assistance from other NGOs and Pakistani Nation. For a more accurate evaluation and optimum targeting, WFP and UNICEF jointly carried out Rapid Food Security and Nutrition Assessment.

2. Objective

Rehabilitation initiatives are being launched jointly by the Government, UN agencies, and International and National NGOs under the overall supervision and coordination of ERRA. In order to enable the rehabilitation work, World Food Programme, as part of policy, needs to identify food insecure areas at micro-level (union council). Due to shortage of time and urgency of the programme implementation VAM unit opted for Rapid Food Security Assessment at Union Council level.

3. Methodology Districts Tehsils Union Councils 7 21 229 A four-member team under supervision o f Head of the Vulnerability Analysis and Mapping (VAM) unit started the field work for rapid Variables compiled and used 154 assessment on 12 March 2006, which was completed in 25 days. Total 224 Union Councils Key Indicators out of 229 (99%) were visited. Working Capacity reduction Working Capacity reduction The Rapid Food Security Assessment (RFSA) Loss of assets team used a mixture of Participatory Rural Reduction in crop and future crop Appraisal (PRA) tools, qualitative semi- production structured focused group interviews, and key Reduction in livestock informant interviews, and discussion with Reduction in potable water Government officials and local representatives. Decline in education/health facilities This information was coordinated with team Poverty members’ personal observations. A simple Access to markets sampling frame was used, seeking villages with Prices of food commodities differing levels of damage at different altitudes. ! Usage of technology In addition, basic statistics compiled by ! Type of employment government agencies, Army and local ! Vehicles ownership/movement representatives were used for this purpose.

4. Findings

The families in this region, on average, are comprised of 7 people per household. About 88 percent of inhabitants live in hilly, mountainous rural settlements, which range in size from 2 households to more than 300. The region’s population is relatively young: nearly half (42 percent) of the population is below the age of 15 years, while 6.7 percent of the population is above the age of 60. A high proportion of the

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POST-EARTHQUAKE RAPID FOOD SECURITY ASSESSMENT – MARCH 2006 population lacks basic services and facilities like clean drinking water and proper sanitation. The region shows extreme environmental vulnerability, characterized by frequent landslides, few environmental safeguards and unchecked urbanization in areas with limited capacity.

Food Security study carried out by VAM unit in 2003 has classified seven districts as food insecure out of a total of 9 districts affected by the earthquake. Following is the position of seven districts graded on the level of food insecurity with No. 1 being the most food insecure: 1. Shangla 2. Kohistan 3. Neelum 4. Battagram 5. Bagh 6. Muzaffarabad 7. Mansehra

The situation in the already food insecure areas was further aggravated by the earthquake. The depletion of assets and food stocks has compounded food insecurity in the region. The trend of damages and prevailing food insecurity conditions vary within each district therefore the situation at the micro level (UC and beyond) would have a different picture. Keeping in view the losses and impaired coping mechanism, identification and ranking of vulnerable food insecure areas (union councils) was needed for better and precise targeting.

Based on the extent of damage and food insecurity situation, seven districts, i.e., Muzaffarabad, Neelum, Bagh, Mansehra, Battagram, Kohistan and Shangla were selected for rapid assessment of post-earthquake food security situation. The RFSA was based on union council level information using multiple techniques including the GIS analytical tools and altitude. Following are the main findings of the assessment:

4.1. Population Rapid Food Security Assessment - March 2006 Earthquake Affected Areas Table- 1 Total Population Union Councils Number of Pakistan Administered total Total Kashmir North West Frontier Province Population Muzaffarabad Bagh Neelum Mansehra Batagram Kohistan Shangla 4000 -10000 5 5 2 - - - - 12 10001-16000 3 20 1 14 15 38 2 93 16001-20000 26 - 5 21 - - 16 68 20001-40000 5 4 2 27 5 - 10 53 40001-60000 - - - 1 - - - 1 60001-100000 - - - 1 - - - 1 100001-140000 1 ------1 Total: 40 29 10 64 20 38 28 229

Population of union councils in earthquake affected areas ranges from 4,000 to 140,000. Highest populated places are Muzaffarabad and Mansehra towns. The densely populated town of Muzaffarabad suffered high casualties. Apart from the major towns, majority of the union councils, i.e., 46% have population in the range of 4,000-16,000, while 76% of union councils are below 20,000 each. The whole of Kohistan district has low populated union councils. See table-1 for details.

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4.2. Economic Losses

According to the World Bank preliminary estimates, direct damage caused by earthquake is Rs. 135.1 billion (US$2.3 billion). The largest component of this damage is to private housing, which amounts to Rs. 61.2 billion (US$1 billion), followed by damage to the transport sector totaling Rs. 20.2 billion (US$340 million), and to the education sector equaling Rs. 19.9 billion (US$335million). Direct damage to agriculture including livestock is also sizeable, totaling Rs. 12.9 billion (US$218 million). The losses to 1 industry and services amount to Rs. 8.6 billion (US$144 million) .

The level of direct damage in AJK is higher than in NWFP. For AJK, it amounts to Rs. 76.4 billion (US$1.3 billion) and for NWFP, Rs. 58.7 billion (US$989 million). In most sectors, the destruction of physical assets in AJK is higher than in NWFP.

4.3. Losses of manpower

The earthquake caused immense loss of human lives, majority being women and children. Among the dead, about 50% were working-force, which seriously affected the livelihoods including food production as well as food purchasing power. Terrain of the area played a vital role in the high rate of casualties. The timing of earthquake was also crucial as children were in schools, while elders were mostly in homes preparing to go out for daily routine activities. Because of Ramadan (fasting month) and people living on high altitude, work usually starts late, therefore most of the people were indoors at that time.

High casualties were recorded in Muzaffarabad and Balakot where more than 2000 people died in each of Rapid Food Security Assessment - March 2006 Earthquake Affected Areas Table - 2 Casualties Union Councils Number of Pakistan Administered Total Deaths Kashmir North West Frontier Province Muzaffarabad Bagh Neelum Mansehra Batagram Kohistan Shangla 0 - 10 - 2 7 31 - 28 17 85 11 - 50 1 7 1 10 4 7 7 37 51 - 100 1 3 1 5 5 2 4 21 101 - 500 13 10 1 8 10 1 - 43 501 - 1000 12 7 - 4 1 - - 24 1001 - 2000 11 - - 4 - - - 15 2001 - 3000 2 - - 2 - - - 4 Total: 40 29 10 64 20 38 28 229 the four union councils. In 15 union councils, the casualties were in the range of 1000-2000. All of these were in Muzaffarabad and Mansehra districts. Many households lost their earning hands and became the most vulnerable with no source of food and income, except the relief food. The social structure in this region is closely-knit, and families on the average are comprised of 7 people per household. About 88 percent of residents live in hilly, mountainous rural settlements, which range in size from 2 households to more than 300. The region’s population is relatively young: nearly half (42 percent) of the population is below the age of 15 years, while 6.7 percent is above the age of 60. A high proportion of the population lacks basic services and facilities like clean drinking water and sanitation.

1 World Bank-Pakistan Damage and Needs Assessment Report-Nov 18, 2005

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The serious injuries sustained left a large number of people disabled and unfit to work. These people can not support their families and are highly vulnerable. They lack resources and are relying on help from the community for sustenance and security. The traumatized families struggling for survival are under increased pressure to cope with the situation as relief activities are almost ending. The figure of injured is quite high in 6 union councils, where 5 of these are in Muzaffarabad.

Rapid Food Security Assessment - March 2006 Earthquake Affected Areas Table - 3 Injured By Earthquake 2005 Union Councils Number of Pakistan Administered Total injured Kashmir North West Frontier Province Muzaffarabad Bagh Neelum Mansehra Batagram Kohistan Shangla 0 - 10 - - 4 17 - 19 4 44 11 - 50 1 3 4 16 3 11 12 50 51 - 100 2 4 - 14 1 4 10 35 101 - 500 23 19 1 12 15 4 2 76 501 - 1000 9 3 1 4 1 - - 18 1001 - 2000 5 - - 1 - - - 6 Total: 40 29 10 64 20 38 28 229

Besides human suffering, livelihoods were grossly disrupted and income generation capacity was markedly diminished. Many families lost their earning hands, while others have reduced livelihood options. Major setback was reported in Balakot and Hattian, where 25% of the households lost one earning-capable person each. This estimate was 18% in Muzaffarabad Loss of Household Capability Figure - 1 and 12% in Battagram. 30 25 25 25

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4.4. Damage to houses

No kind of housing escaped the seismic shock and in the worst affected areas human dwellings were almost entirely wiped out. The resources people lost include livestock, surplus food, farm equipment, livestock feed and even food for immediate need. It was witnessed that there was nobody to clear or remove the debris for days and weeks. This was also an indication that majority of the young people had either perished or were far away from homes.

The RFSA team also observed that most of the houses constructed on top of mountains had collapsed or had been washed down. Mountains were extensively cracked and in some cases dislodged together with

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POST-EARTHQUAKE RAPID FOOD SECURITY ASSESSMENT – MARCH 2006 the houses. There was substantial damage to terraces used for crop production. In a few cases, the whole villages had disappeared.

The earthquake hit area is located in the mountainous range and majority of the population are living on high altitude where the temperature drops down to below zero degree centigrade. Without proper shelter it is hard to survive in such harsh weather conditions. Thus houses are the most important life saving factor in these areas, but unfortunately most were destroyed or damaged. This was a serious blow to the survivors as they were rendered helpless and unable to cope with the disaster.

Rapid Food Security Assessment - March 2006 Earthquake Affected Areas Table - 4 Houses Destroyed By Earthquake 2005 % Union Councils Destroyed Pakistan Administered Kashmir North West Frontier Province Total Houses Muzaffarabad Bagh Neelum Mansehra Batagram Kohistan Shangla 0 - 10 - - 4 7 - 9 2 22 11 - 50 - 1 2 24 3 17 15 62 51 - 70 - 1 2 3 2 5 4 17 71- 80 1 - - 5 3 1 4 14 81 - 100 39 27 2 25 12 6 3 114 Total: 40 29 10 64 20 38 28 229

In 114 union councils (50%) more than 80% of the houses collapsed, while some union councils witnessed 100% destruction. Majority of these union councils are in Muzaffarabad followed by Bagh district. The collapse of houses compelled the people to survive on bare minimum food. It was observed, in the initial days, that affected people were demanding shelter as first priority and not food, as survival was impossible without winterized shelter. Thus all efforts were diverted to shelters and whatever resources available or received in relief were utilized for temporary houses/shelters. Table-4.

4.5. Livelihoods

Agriculture including livestock rearing is the primary source of employment in rural areas of NWFP as well as PAK. According to the Census of 1998, agriculture accounted for 37 percent of total rural employment, in the four affected districts of AJK, while its share was 49 percent for affected areas of rural NWFP. Services and public administration account for 60 percent of employment in the affected urban areas of AJK; small trading and businesses account for 14 percent, and construction and transport together account for 13 percent. Public administration, trade and small businesses, followed by construction and transport, are also the most significant sectors of employment for the affected urban areas of NWFP. Employment in public administration is more prominent in AJK than in NWFP, while agriculture is more important in terms of employment in NWFP than AJK.

In both regions, participation of women in the labor force is low in the affected areas (around 17 percent of women of age 10 and above). Among those working, between 40 percent (NWFP) to 50 percent (PAK) are employed in the public sector and agriculture accounts for between 22 percent (PAK) and 40 percent (NWFP) of women employed. Despite women’s heavy involvement in home-based activities, their contribution in agriculture and livestock rearing is quite significant.

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Box - 1

In NWFP, the five affected districts account for nearly a quarter (16,925 km2) of the province's geographical area and 17 percent (3.6 million) of its population. The share of the affected districts in the social and physical infrastructure in the province is found to be higher than their share in population. This is due to lower population density and more scattered settlements in the affected districts than the rest of NWFP and AJK. For example, the affected districts account for 22 percent of the stock of private housing, 26 percent of schools, 22 percent of health institutions, 25 percent of villages with electricity, 21 percent of households with potable water and 19 percent of the road network, while only 17 percent of the province's population resides there. Annual per capita income in these districts is similar to that of the rest of the province. Outward migration and corresponding remittances are defining characteristics of these districts. In 2001/02, nearly 53 percent of the households in the affected districts received remittances from migrant family members, compared to 37 percent of households in the entire province. Most of these remittances originate from other urban centers in Pakistan and, for some households, from abroad. Thus, per capita consumer expenditure in these districts tends to be significantly higher than what their per capita income (at factor cost) would suggest.

The affected districts in AJK account for 63 percent of its geographical area (which is equal to 8,340 km2) and 52 percent of its population (1.8 million). Over half of AJK's private housing (51percent of the stock of houses), schools (54 percent), health institutions (51 percent), road networks (54percent), and a significant share of households with potable water (43 percent) and electricity connections (19 percent) are located in these three districts. Like NWFP, the affected districts of AJK are large recipients of remittances, although, the percent of households receiving remittances is considerably higher in AJK than in NWFP. At the same time, the source of remittances in AJK is more diversified than in NWFP, with foreign remittances accounting for more than 50 percent of total remittances.

In order to assess the potential economic losses arising from the earthquake, it is necessary to have a first order approximation of the economic structure and output of the affected districts (Box 1). As shown in Figure 3, the five most critical sectors in the affected districts of NWFP in terms of output are: livestock (19 percent of affected districts' output), transport (14.5 percent), trade (14.4 percent), public administration (11.8 percent) and crop agriculture (9.3 percent). The high share of agriculture and services and the low share of manufacturing in total output are consistent with the feedback received from policymakers and researchers familiar with the local economy of the affected districts. The share of the affected districts in NWFP in total output varies between 15 and 20 percent across most sectors. The total output generated in the five NWFP districts in 2004/05 is estimated to be $1.5 billion (equal to 1.4percent of national output).

The affected districts of AJK account for as much as 52 percent of the total output generated in the State, with three sectorslivestock, trade and public administrationaccounting for nearly 55 percent of it. Consultations with local policymakers during the field visits reconfirmed the importance of these sectors for sustaining growth and livelihood of the affected districts. The total output generated in the three affected districts of AJK in 2004/05 is estimated to be $0.8 billion (or 0.75 percent of output of the four provinces and AJK). Preliminary Damage and Needs Assessment-November 12, 2005. World Bank and Asian Development Bank, Pakistan

4.5.1. Agriculture

Agriculture and livestock rearing are the primary sources of employment in rural areas. Most rural residents engage in subsistence agriculture, with agriculture accounting for 60 to 70 percent of total household income and 37 percent of total rural employment. Agriculture crops production is the major livelihood activity in the earthquake hit areas. Maize is the major crop, which is followed by wheat.

In order to understand the short-term situation of food shortages, wheat crop cultivation was discussed, observed and recorded. Wheat contributes about 40% of the total food produced in this mountainous region. Findings show a very interesting picture. It was presumed earlier that most of the fields would remain unattended and no wheat would be cultivated. However, with the free distribution of seed and fertilizer by the Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Livestock (MINFAL) and FAO, farmers managed to cultivate wheat on suitable farms. However, a decrease of wheat cultivation was witnessed.

In 29 union councils, majority in Muzaffarabad and Mansehra (Balakot), wheat cultivation declined by more than 60%. These are the heavily damaged UCs, where cultivated land was destroyed, manpower and other resources were diminished. Above 40% decline was recorded in 44 union councils. Two UCs in

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Muzaffarabad reported zero cultivation of wheat because of earthquake. The average decline was recorded as 28% in these districts.

Rapid Food Security Assessment - March 2006 Earthquake Affected Areas Table - 5 Decrease in Wheat Crop Area By Earthquake 2005 Union Councils % Pakistan Administered increase/ Total Kashmir North West Frontier Province decrease Muzaffarabad Bagh Neelum Mansehra Batagram Kohistan Shangla Increase - 4 - - - - - 4 No Crop - 9 7 2 - 2 - 20 0 - 1 1 17 - 13 7 39 4 - 10 - - - 5 1 2 5 13 11 - 20 5 3 - 16 4 9 7 44 21 - 40 4 6 1 12 4 5 4 36 41 - 60 16 4 1 6 6 7 4 44 61 - 100 15 2 - 6 5 0 1 29 Total: 40 29 10 64 20 38 28 229

About 20 UCs are on higher elevation and do not grow wheat. Four UCs in Dirkot tehsil of Bagh district witnessed a slight increase in wheat cultivation because of free seed and fertilizer.

4.5.2. Livestock

Livestock is the 2nd major farm sector of livelihood in this region. Its importance increases with the increase of altitude. Besides contribution to daily food consumption, it is an important asset, for sale, calves and ultimately meat.

The damage to livestock was quite heavy in EQ region. Except for 15 union councils in the outer region, all union councils recorded damage to livestock. In 6 union councils of Muzaffarabad, it was above 80%. On average the damage was recorded as 14%.

Rapid Food Security Assessment - March 2006 Earthquake Affected Areas Table - 6 Number of Livestock ( Cow equivalent ) Deaths Caused By Earthquake 2005 Union Councils % Pakistan Administered Livestock Total Kashmir North West Frontier Province Death Muzaffarabad Bagh Neelum Mansehra Batagram Kohistan Shangla No - 3 - 6 6 15 Below 1 - 2 2 13 - 15 13 45 1 - 10 1 15 2 34 17 16 8 93 11 - 30 13 5 3 14 2 - 1 38 31 - 50 10 4 - 2 1 1 - 18 51 - 70 5 3 - 1 - - - 9 71 - 80 5 ------5 81 - 100 6 ------6 Total: 40 29 10 64 20 38 28 229

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In addition to livestock mortality, rate of de-stocking was quite high as many livestock owners were selling animals because of a lack of shelters, feed and need of cash. The prices of animals declined by more than 50% in the area and farmers who were already suffering, incurred a further loss.

4.5.3. Off-farm Activities

Because of the marginal landholding, off-farm livelihood activities are part of each and every home. These activities have Figure - 2 been classified in 5 broad groups, i.e., government jobs, private jobs/business, overseas Source: Save The Children employment, labor work within the area and labor work outside the area. Per findings of the RFSA, on average, about 10% of the work-force is government employees, 7.6% are working in private sector, 5.4% are abroad and 76% are working as laborers both in and out side the area. The level of income is partly determined by the type of employment/activity. Those who have family members working abroad receive remittances and are well-off, while those who rely on labor work are the least prosperous.

Save The Children in their recent report on Rapid Livelihood assessment has analyzed the income of various groups. According to the poverty line defined as Rs. 4000/- (67 USD) per family per month, many groups fall below the line. See figure-2. The percentage of reasonable income groups is quite low and majority of the families fall below the poverty line.

In order to determine the level of cash resources from employment, the percentage of laborers in each UC was analyzed across the region. The highest percentage of labor was identified in Alpuri tehsil, while followed by other two tehsils of the same district (Shangla). It is quite surprising that district Shangla was the 1st in the ranking of food insecurity in NWFP per our VAM study of “Food Insecurity in Pakistan 2003”. Labour Workers Figure - 3

Seven Tehsils showed high rate of labor workers, 3 93

90 7 6 8 6 6 8 8 in Shangla, 3 in Kohistan and one in Bagh 5 8 8 4

87 4 8 8 1 districts. e 84 8 9 g

81 7

a 6 t 7 5

78 5 5 n 4 7 7 7 7 e In Shangla district 47% of the laborers are working 3

75 7 c 1 r 7

e 72 outside the areas. Most of these laborers are 9 6 P

69 6 working in coal mines, exposed to high 6 66 4 6 occupational hazards. The frequency of casualties 63 is high and many families loose their earning 60 i h t li i s n t h n ri n g o e lla m su la ta o a g a m u m ar g a hands. In terms of development, Shangla is the a K v A s a t ak hr O tti d a lp a s un ur B r a ra a P a l e a a q A sh e rt P e H g D P a s H ab u i k a e tta B n r m B ha M h a a fa th C D B M af A least developed and lagging behind in all aspects uz Tehsil M of development.

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4.6. Education

The school going population was most seriously affected because of the timing of the earthquake. Buildings of schools were of the poor quality and inadequate for withstanding seismic shock. Most of the schools were reduced to rubble causing death and devastation. Majority were razed to the ground, irrespective of the nature of damage to the surrounding houses. This will remain a serious issue in the re- construction of schools in the future.

It was disastrous that majority of Schools Destroyed by Earthquake Figure - 4 the education institutions were 110 damaged. In 20 UCs, 100% of Comp Damage 100 the schools were destroyed. Partialy Damage 90

Major damage was caused in e 80 g

Hattian tehsil of Muzaffarabad a 70 t district, where 99% of the n 60 e

c 50 primary schools were either r e 40 destroyed or heavily damaged. P 30 This figure was 94% for 20 Balakot, 93% for Bagh and 91% 10 for Muzaffarabad and 90% for 0

a

a l

d

t

r

d a

a

o

t a m

r

i

n

m g a

i l r

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n o a K

Dirkot tehsils. On average 51% i i a r

n m s a a s n u

e r h i a a k h a h h u r t a a t s l e a q u r R v g e l t l a t t r g g p e l S u h k s a l a r s a F a a A a f a u t a e a a s f a t of the education facilities were n O A i P H m P H B P h B h a a a D B h M t z D B C M u wiped out. A M Tehsils Except for 38 UCs, primary schools were heavily damaged in the whole region. All UCs in Battagram reported damages to primary schools.

Rapid Food Security Assessment Assessment - March 2006 Earthquake Affected Areas Table - 7 Primary Schools Collapsed By Earthquake 2005 Number of Union Councils Primary Pakistan Administered Kashmir North West Frontier Province Total Schools Muzaffarabad Bagh Neelum Mansehra Batagram Kohistan Shangla No 1 2 5 17 - 10 3 38 1 - 10 13 18 2 22 - 23 23 101 11 - 20 23 9 3 8 8 3 2 56 21 - 30 2 - - 6 8 2 - 18 31 - 40 1 - - 9 3 - - 13 41 - 50 - - - 2 1 - - 3 Total: 40 29 10 64 20 38 28 229

4.7. Health

The earthquake left more than 70,000 people with injuries. The earthquake’s impact on the health sector also includes severe damage to health infrastructure and health systems. About 574 health facilities have been partially damaged or destroyed. Many surviving staff members in the earthquake affected areas are away from work due in part to psychological trauma and to their assistance to family members in finding

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shelter and rebuilding houses. These losses have resulted in a complete breakdown of the health system and a total disruption of both secondary and primary care service provision.

4.8. Availability of potable water

Safe drinking water is Households having acccess to Piped Water Figure - 5 vital for a healthy and Before & After Earthquake 2005 90

productive life. It is 80

ironic that although, the 70 mountainous region 60 60

e 50 g a provides water to other t n 41 e 40 c

r 36 e provinces of Pakistan P 30 28

22 Prior EQ for drinking and 20 20 HH access 14 15 12 12 13 to pipe 10 9 10 10 irrigation, there is a 9 8 8 9 water 5

0 Aft er EQ

HH access

dearth of adequate

to pipe

t

t

i o

r n l i

i

d m n o i water r g a s a e K a n u m a m i a

a a r l h k u n h t l s a t a v r s l t a a b h t r a u g

supply for its own g r p e l l t A a g s q a a h a e a e r a u k a r a u O A a s s H P t e a i P H a t B P a n B f

h (-)rease i n D m h f B a a M h a D B C t M z access to A consumers. As facilities u

M Pipe Water for the provision of safe Tehsils water are quite limited, majority of the people, especially on the high elevations, could not get proper attention. However, whatever limited facilities were available, they were severely disrupted following the earthquake. Many natural springs have dried up and water channels for irrigation have been broken, become misaligned or blocked by landslides. People are being compelled to use unhygienic water from the rivers and other sources. Kohistan is the most deprived district, where this facility was already very limited. However, the present situation is very alarming as most of these facilities are non-operational and will need time, resources and priority to rehabilitate. Most severe damage occurred in Balakot, followed by Alai and Muzaffarabad. The destruction was about 60% in Balakot, 41% in Alai and 36% in Muzaffarabad.

At present, there is no piped water facility in 38 union councils (except Kala Dhakka-tribal area) and majority of these are in Kohistan district (50%). In 54 union councils, only up to 10% of households have access to piped water. These union councils are located in the less accessible areas of all the seven districts. Waterborne diseases are quite common in these UCs, while health facilities are inadequate or almost non-existent.

4.9. Communication

Communication networks (roads) are essential in development of livelihood and access to food. Road infrastructure is vital for transportation of agricultural goods, inputs and food. Road links are very important in such mountainous and remote areas. Poor communication increases the food cost and families with low income can only afford less food thus remaining food insecure. Following the

Rapid Food Security Assessment - March 2006 Earthquake Affected Areas Table - 8 Distance from Tehsil to Union Council Length in KM Roads Pakistan Administered Kashmir North West Frontier Province Total Muzaffarabad Bagh Neelum Mansehra Batagram Kohistan Shangla Blacktop 901 327 111 987.5 271 659 208 3464.5 Kacha 161 37 68 157.5 69 523 254 1269.5 No Road 7 - - - 1 80 10 98 Total Length 1069 364 179 1145 341 1262 472 4832

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earthquake, transport systems have been seriously impaired due to unstable road links, seriously threatening food security. In these seven districts the road length only to UCs is 4807 km. It is surprising that 6 UCs have no access road and the total distance is about 98 km. Each UC has a number of villages that require food supply. Thus it is quite difficult to transport food commodities in bulk and even more difficult for local people to get food easily. Alternate transportation is also very costly and even 3-4 times

Rapid Food Security Assessment - March 2006 Earthquake Affected Areas Table - 9 Poor Access in Earthquake Affacted Areas Union Councils Pakistan Administered Total Accessibility Kashmir North West Frontier Province Muzaffarabad Bagh Neelum Mansehra Batagram Kohistan Shangla Reasonable 15 18 - 38 8 3 9 91 Poor 10 2 - 17 7 8 5 49 Very poor 10 3 - 4 1 8 6 32 Highly poor 5 6 10 5 4 19 8 57 Total: 40 29 10 64 20 38 28 229 higher than transportation through roads.

The existing 37% roads are not blacktopped. Only small jeeps can be driven on these roads with limited passengers and goods. This incurs a high transport cost and requires more time. In Shangla district, about 50% of the distance to UCs is either kacha (not blacktopped) or there are no roads at all. Kohistan is the

Access and Communication Figure - 6

50 poor communication 45 Tehsil-UC poor 40 Communication UC-Village 35 30 e g a t 25 4 5 n e c r 7 7 20 3 1 1 3 e 4 5 5 3 1 1 P 2 2 2 7

15 7 6 2 2 2 3 2 2 1 2 1 0 0 1 9 1 7 8 8 6

10 7 1 1 6 6 6 3 3 6 1 5 0 5 4 4 9 4 8 3

5 3 3

0

t t a i i h o li i m u s n o h n m r n g e la a s a ta k r g a d a u m r g a K v l r s l t h ti a q a a n r a A a a e t lp s u u B r a g a P a l O a b sh e rt e H ta P a s ra u A i k a P e t D B n H a m B a h a a ff h M a th C D B M z A u Tehsil M second in poor communication where only 52% roads are classified as blacktop roads, but even these are damaged and broken at various locations.

Accessibility is a vital element in food availability and affordability. Not only food but all socio- development interventions are based on accessibility. 57 UCs are the most inaccessible and majority of these are in Kohistan, followed by Neelum district. Mansehra and Muzaffarabad proper have less accessibility problems.

In total 91 UCs are reasonably better in access to food and other related markets. The whole Neelum district is identified as highly inaccessible. Land slides are quite common and the probability of occurrence has increased due to mountain instability following the earthquake.

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All these UCs are surrounded by main villages and hamlets. About 7978 km of road network connects 2067 main villages excluding Kala Dhaka (tribal area). This road network has 61% un-metalled roads, which remain closed during rainy and snowfall season because of landslides and soil erosion. Interestingly, about 300 villages have no road links. The total distance traveled by foot/animals is about 1319 km to the main villages only.

4.10. Market Prices of Food Commodities

The wholesale prices of most foodstuffs slightly increased since the earthquake as compared to the markets in Punjab. The most significant effect on markets has been in relation to transport, with prices having risen dramatically since the earthquake. This applies both to transport from Rawalpindi/Peshawar to urban centers in NWFP and PAK, and also to transport from those centers to small the towns and villages. Rates charged by transporters were said to have risen by 50-100% in the early days, but dropped to the level of 30-50% higher than pre-quake rates. The broken, Kacha and narrow roads to villages in hard mountainous terrain permit only small jeeps and, in some cases, pick ups. Due to high operational cost of these small vehicles, the cost of food commodities goes up.

The increased load of relief and rehabilitation work has increased the demand for vehicles that could not be met with the reduced local supply. The local transport availability was hampered by the damage to vehicles and repair shops, and deaths of drivers. The higher transport rate was mainly attributed to the combination of limited supply of local transport and especially the extremely high rates for local transport paid by relief agencies who have hired large numbers of vehicles in the affected areas. The ultimate result has been an increase in food prices in the villages, with those further away from centers being the worst affected. Rapid Food Security Assessment Report - March 2006 During field visits prices of essential foods Earthquake Affected Areas Table -10 commodities were collected from 224 UCs. Correlation of Distance with Market Prices These commodities are wheat flour, rice, Wheat Edible sugar and edible oil. It was observed that 70- Road Sugar Rice Flour Oil 80% of the cereals consumed by households Blacktop 0.08 0.095 0.12 0.063 were imported from other provinces, Kacha .366(**) .238(**) .277(**) .285(**) especially from Punjab and NWFP. Prices of No Road .314(**) .182(**) .263(**) .247(**) these food commodities determine the level of Total Road .383(**) .284(**) .345(**) .295(**) consumption. Fluctuations in prices compel Wheat Flour 1 .390(**) .417(**) .468(**) the poor households to shift to cheaper foods Sugar .390(**) 1 .512(**) .337(**) Edible Oil .417(**) .512(**) 1 .394(**) and/or reduce consumption. This situation Rice .468(**) .337(**) .394(**) 1 threatens the already fragile food security ** Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed). situation in the area.

The distance to respective UCs and prices of food commodities were analyzed. It was observed that blacktop roads had no significant impact on the prices. On the other hand, kacha (not blacktopped) roads have a significant correlation with prices of all four commodities. The case is similar where there are no roads. This means that UCs connected with Kacha (not blacktopped) roads or having no road are supposed to pay more than those connected by blacktop roads. This makes the households more food insecure as compared to those having better road access even with the same level of income.

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4.11. Level of poverty

Traditionally, people living in rural areas of Pakistan, especially in mountainous regions, spend most of their savings on the construction of a house. A house is considered to be a status symbol and indicates influence and high social rank. People who are well-off Union Councils with %age of kacha houses construct sturdy structures built with 30 25

reinforced concrete or stone, timber r

e 20 and galvanized sheet roofs. b 15 m

u 10 N 5 Those with meager resources can not 0 spend on house construction, and d a h n a a r g m m a l b h a lu ra t g a e e g is n live in basic accommodation made r s B e h a fa n ta o h 5 - 49 f a N a K S za M B of local stones and clay. u M 50 - 69 70 - 79 Figure - 7 In order to assess the level of District 80 - 99 poverty the type of houses with local materials (kacha) were estimated. Kohistan has the highest number of kacha houses as 26 UCs out of 38 having 80-99% of kacha houses. In Shangla, 70% of the UCs falls in this category (80-99% kacha). In Neelum, 80% of the UCs is in this category.

4.12. Ownership or movement of vehicles

Figure - 8 Vehicles Ownership & Movement Vehicles ownership is one of the Vehicles Vehicles owned movement indicators of higher income. Similarly, 9.0 movement of vehicles determines the 8.0 level of economic and commercial 7.0

e 6.0 g a interventions. As explained earlier, t 5.0 n e

c 4.0

because of the earthquake, many r e vehicles were unserviceable, P 3.0 2.0 workshops were damaged and drivers 1.0 and mechanics died, which caused a 0.0

t i t i i h l i m u s n o a h n m r m r g n g o e lla a s la ta k r g ia d u a a n a a K v r s a t a h tt a a p s u r decline in productive assets of the B r a A g a a l e O b q l sh e rt u e H a P P a s a ra u A i k a P e tt D B n H a m B a h a a ff h h M a t C D B M z A local people. Some of the major u Tehsil M commercial areas hit by the earthquake had dramatically reduced market activities. Six months after the earthquake these markets are still not fully recovered. The re-construction work is still awaiting permission from the government for proper design and financial support.

The UCs in remote areas, even the ones that were not heavily damaged, are suffering because of lack of transport facilities as food commodities are purchased from or transported through the same area. The lack of transport, increased fuel rate and local demand has raised the prices of all essential commodities.

The transport related information was analyzed at UC and tehsil level. At present, Mansehra has the highest rate of both ownership and movement of vehicles, which are 65% and 85% of the households. Bisham is the 2nd highest, followed by Muzaffarabad. The least transport facilities are available in Kohistan and Shangla districts. In Kohistan, Shangla and Neelam districts and Havelli and Allai tehsils only small vehicles can be driven.

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4.13. Usage of Technology

Technology plays a vital role in Technology Usage Figure - 9 development and poverty 90 Usage 5 Impr. 8

2 Seed 1 8 Usage 8 alleviation. The area covered by Tractor 80 Usage RFSA is predominantly Thresher

70 7 6 6 6

agricultural, therefore usage of 2 6

60 5 5 latest technology in agriculture 3 5

50

is very important to cope with e 4 4 4 g 4 3 a t 4 n e 9 8 c 3 r 7 food shortages and reduction in 40 3 e 3 5 P 3 2 1 1 3 3 3 9 2 food insecurity on a sustainable 8 2

30 6 6 2 2

basis. The usage of available 0 9 2 9 1 8 8 1 7 1 1 6

20 1 1 5 1 4 3 1 2 1 and operational technologies in 2 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 9 9 9 9 8 8 8

10 7 7 6 6 6 the area was assessed. Most 5 4 3 3 2 1 0 0 common of these are improved 0

t

d

t i

i

m n o

i

l r a

a r

n o g m i s a a r K a a n e b u i m u l

r k h n a a l t h s h a v s t a a l t a p u r g a g t r q r l e e g l A s t seed and usage of tractor and a a a h e r a a a u k a s u a a A t s f H O P e a i f H a t n B P P B m D h h a a a B M h z D t B C M u A thresher. These basic Tehsil M technologies are the main factors in increasing food production, reducing labor work and also expanding the cultivated area. Furthermore, possession of tractors and threshers increases the assets and economic status of the people.

Farmers in remote areas keep bullocks for ploughing on narrow terraces where tractors are unsuitable or unavailable. Some of the families do not cultivate land as they simply can not afford to keep bullocks.

The usage of technology is high in Mansehra district. The most common use is of thresher. In some areas where tractors cannot reach because of nonexistence of roads, the portable diesel driven threshers are used. The usage of threshers has become quite popular. The main cause of low productivity, in these areas, is the usage of local seed. Per acre yield, particularly of wheat, is very low. This is not only because farmers are not using improved seed, but also because of uncertain availability and also affordability concerns. Government and concerned departments have a limited capacity and no proper mechanism in place for such interventions.

The three main and common factors (technologies) of crop production, i.e. seed, Tractor and Thresher were analyzed. The usage of all the three technologies is the lowest (below 10%) in Havelli, Palas, Pattan, Autmuqam, Chakessar, Martung and Puran Tehsils. The low level of agriculture technology, especially lack of usage of improved seed, is the main cause of low productivity. It is important to note that agriculture is the main source of livelihood in these areas and is the dominant occupation for rural families. Priorities of communities Figure -10

180 5. Problems and priorities of the communities 160 140

120 People living in these seven districts have numerous 100

80 8 4 3 5 5 5 1 1 1 problems which were further aggravated by the 4 60 2 1 earthquake. The area is thinly populated and because of 40 4

20 5 4 3 9 0 7 1 3 3 2 1 its vastness, combined with limited resources available 1 2 - e t s s y l n h t with the government, many problems remained & n i t e r

s m s l e e o n s e i s s c r c n e e i t o e n a i t o n r g n l i e r e u t o i i g a t i c i t n t e l l o l u t n t a e i i i i d g a l n t a c p i i o a u i t e I h H c i d l r r l m a

h l e p c i c c i l S r i i r a S e I c B u r b c a u C n

i e T E unsolved. Besides, rural development in the long term F u g a S u F B s P

d & h A

a r m E e e B d t m R a a o o C W perspective has not been focused per se in the national R policies and these areas have remained backward. The Problems problems faced by the communities were exacerbated by the earthquake and whatever limited facilities were present, were also abolished.

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Major problems of the communities were discussed and categorized according to the priorities proposed by the people. The most pressing demands were for potable water, roads, basic health facilities and education. Road link is a major problem in Kohistan where many villages, even UCs have no roads at all. Similar is the case of Shangla, where one UC has no access road to reach the district capital or any big town, and people have to travel through other districts to reach there.

Potable water is another Major Priorities in Earthquake Affacted Areas Figure - 11 serious problem and is one of 80.0 the prime concerns. Women, 70.0 who are mainly responsible 60.0

for water collection, travel e 50.0 g a t long distances to fetch water n 40.0 e c r

from springs, rivers and other e 30.0 P unhygienic sources. Even 20.0 though potable water was a 10.0 serious problem in the pre- 0.0 M uzaffarabad t y e s t s Mansehra n h & l i s r s n s n t

s e l r o c e s e u o e earthquake period, it became e e n i i i t i c i g t a e l l r t n e t r t g n o t i i l i n e a l t p u a n Bagh t i d u a c i i e i l c g c p a a d H i c r i o i i e e l

h m l l r r u an issue of survival in the i c h c a r n c B S r i S

g e

E I u u a S F u e Neelum C

s T & e r A d F B

P a m e d E t most affected areas because of m B a m a o Batagram o o c W R n C broken pipelines and I Kohistan Problems destruction of springs. Shangla

Health remained the 2nd major problem in the affected areas. Although, a number of NGOs, Pakistan Army and private sector doctors have been working in the area for curative and preventive treatments, most of the inaccessible areas and those with less damage are not receiving medical care. The broken structures of Basic Health centers and Rural Health Centers are also lacking proper treatment facilities.

Deficient education facility was the 4th major issue in the area. Lack of proper school buildings, shortage of teachers (as many died), non-existent teacher hostels, inaccessibility and distance from schools are the main causes. First Priority Figure - 12 The priorities were also analyzed at 80 69 the district level. Roads were the most 70 66 pressing demand in Neelum and 60 Kohistan districts, while potable water 50 was a serious problem in Battagran followed by Bagh, Mansehra, Shangla 40 and Muzaffarabad. Other issues, 30 25 20 15 besides health and education, are 11 11 13 10 7 electricity, irrigation, shelter, income 1 3 2 sources, agriculture and - telecommunication. It was observed that UCs having no roads are generally deprived of all other facilities as well. Problems Thus road construction will have a pivotal role in facilitating other socio-economic interventions. UCs with damaged roads are not receiving continuous assistance, and are dependent on the non-traditional means of delivering food and other facilities.

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The first priority mentioned by each UC was analyzed. Majority of the UCs mentioned roads as the first priority, followed by potable water, education and finally, health. UCs with heavy damage opted for shelter as first priority.

6. Food Insecurity

According to our VAM earlier study of food insecurity, all the seven districts are in the high food insecurity zone. However, to further break down the food insecurity at UC level and categorize the priority for interventions, this RFSA was undertaken.

Keeping in view the situation and nature of disaster in the already food insecure areas, the food insecurity has been classified in two broad categories, i.e., transient food insecurity and persistent or overall food insecurity.

6.1. Transient Food Insecurity

The Earthquake destabilized most of the routine livelihood activities and caused severe damage in many locations. Major sources of livelihood, for instance, agriculture, livestock, business, labor work and transport facilities were affected. In the short-run, these areas became vulnerable Figure - 13 and thus food insecure. This food insecurity condition is not permanent and its alleviation is subject to the increased development interventions and absorption capacity of the communities.

According to transient food insecurity, 74 UCs are the most food insecure. Among these UCs, 34 out of 40 are in Muzaffarabad district, 13 in Mansehra and 10 each in Bagh and Battagram. Besides, 59 UCs are in 2nd category of food insecurity, while 32 fall in medium food insecurity.

During the assessment, it was observed that food, especially wheat flour was not on sale in the small urban markets, because of no demand, as it was distributed for free by donors. NGOs and UN agencies have been working in the area. Government has paid Rs. 25,000/- to each affected family in the worst hit area. This compensation does not include Neelum district and part of Kohistan.

Besides, Government is launching the reconstruction programme. According to ERRA, about Rs. 40 billion will be spent on the reconstruction work and 60% of the work will be completed during current year. Per our RFSA, only house construction will need Rs. 26 billion per announced compensation by the government. This large capital will promote employment opportunities. We assume that all these activities will narrow down the gap between food insecurity condition prior to and after the earthquake. However, the destitute, widows, families with no earning hands and children will be the most vulnerable in these areas.

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6.2. Overall food insecurity

All UCs in seven districts have been classified in four food security zones. These zones are, “very high food insecure”, “high food insecure”, “medium food insecure” and “low food insecure”.

By analyzing all the required indicators, keeping in view the importance of each and every indicator, a more comprehensive picture of food insecurity has been drawn.

In total 82 UCs are ranked as “very high” food insecure. Among these 23 are in Kohistan, 10 in Neelum, 18 in Muzaffarabad and 9 in Shangla. This accounts for 36% of the total UCs. It covers 45% UCs of Muzzaffarabad, 61% of Kohistan and 100% of Neelum districts. All the top food insecure UCs are in the most inaccessible areas of the respective districts. The eastern part of the seven affected districts is highly food insecure because of the hard mountainous terrain with poor communication and saturated livelihood opportunities. Similar is the case of the Northern part. The South-western part is comparatively semi-plain with low altitude mountains. Although, some of the basic problems are common in these areas, like lack of potable water and employment opportunities, subsistence farming and other similar issues, it has better accessibility, more commercialization and income generation activities. Rapid Food Security Assessment - March 2006 Earthquake Affected Areas Table - 11 Over all Food Insecurity Food Union Councils Insecurity Pakistan Administered Kashmir North West Frontier Province Total Zones Muzaffarabad Bagh Neelum Mansehra Batagram Kohistan Shangla Low 5 11 - 38 6 5 8 73 Medium 6 7 - 10 5 6 7 41 High 11 3 - 8 3 4 4 33 Very High 18 8 10 8 6 23 9 82 Total: 40 29 10 64 20 38 28 229

The nature of indicators suggest that over all food insecurity condition will continue, with a possibility of further aggravation, unless drastic measures are taken for the creation of livelihoods, improved access to markets and livelihoods’ sources, improved skills and education and above all the creation of a safe living environment.

There are few income generating activities in rural areas, and women in particular, lack the opportunities, know-how and resources to diversify their livelihoods in the remote areas. Low levels of female education further aggravate this situation. Lack of available credit being a main constraint to diversifying their income, hampers developing a new enterprise. The high interest rate is a deterrent to the families to take the risk of new interventions. Hence, the traditional livelihood activities are prevailing and no change is expected, unless there are heavy subsidies and support by the government, NGOs and donors.

7. Recommendations

7.1. Reconstruction and rehabilitation of major sectors like roads, irrigation channels, electricity, agriculture and livestock should be initiated. Small infrastructure,

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livelihoods rehabilitation and improvement activities should be undertaken through food for work programs for sustainable reduction of food insecurity conditions.

7.2. Disasters always increase the vulnerability of all, especially those who are already disadvantaged. Recovery and rehabilitation programs need to give priority to the most vulnerable groups including female-headed households, families with no earning hands, children, orphans, the poor, and particularly those with special needs, to prevent them from being overlooked. The availability of food should be ensured in a coordinated and targeted manner and this initiative can be taken by the government, NGO’s and other partners including WFP.

7.3. About 51% of schools and 62% of health facilities are destroyed. Reconstruction of these facilities is urgently needed for resumption of proper education and health services.

7.4. Immediate attention must be given to the rehabilitation of houses and associated assets. The need for decisive action in the face of this emergency is tremendous. About 48% of the houses have been demolished, rendering a large proportion of the population homeless. The reconstruction of the houses must be expedited and completed before winter sets in (6 months), otherwise families will be exposed to another harsh winter without adequate shelter, water and food.

7.5. Six Union Councils have no road link with the markets. Construction of roads to these inaccessible UCs should be undertaken on a priority basis.

7.6. Free food distribution should be limited to the categories 3, 4 and above. As markets also suffered losses, support in rehabilitation of shops and providing easy credit line will be required for early recovery and to allow the markets to operate and reach the pre-earthquake level.

7.7. Promote livelihood recovery of the affected communities by opening up and restoration of essential public facilities such as health services, schools and road communication network.

7.8. Ensure community participation in all aspects of livelihood development including recovery and rehabilitation process in partnership with local institutions.

7.9. There are 462,465 children in 5,985 primary schools in these seven districts. Because of poor economic condition of families, these children are on high risk of food insecurity. In addition, parents involved in rehabilitation of assets can not afford sending children to schools. In such circumstances, food for education program should be initiated, at least, in the most food insecure 82 union councils.

7.10. Promotion of local economic development is vital to prevent chronic food insecurity conditions. Provision of technical guidance and public/private partnerships for local development activities, including small business support and facilitating access to micro finance must be initiated.

7.11. The RFSA report has mentioned the priorities of communities. The first four priorities are roads construction/rehabilitation, access to potable water, education facilities including building and health facilities including proper structure. These

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priority issues need immediate attention in the rehabilitation and food for work activities.

7.12. Ensure full and effective coordination among all involved agencies based on comprehensive information exchange, flexibility in administrative procedures, and uniformity of policies. Strengthening and reviving the capacity of community organizations, local NGO’s and the government is important to ensure that recovery and reconstruction activities are demand-driven and reach the disadvantaged and vulnerable people.

7.13. All seven districts are classified as food insecure and recommended for WFP interventions. However, four food insecurity zones have been developed in each district based on FSA indicators.

7.14. The ‘Very High Food Insecure’ zone consists of 82 districts, ‘High Food Insecure’ zone covers 33 districts, ‘Medium Food Insecure’ includes 41 and ‘Low Food Insecure’ has 73 districts. The first zone has the highest priority for undertaking livelihood activities in order to rescue the inhabitants from chronic food insecurity condition.

7.15. Districts with high number of food insecure UCs are the neglected districts, while some tehsils have been totally ignored in socio-economic activities in the past. These areas need special attention by donors as well as Government, in order to merge them in the mainstream of the country. A list of Union councils falling in various f ood insecurity zones is attached for ready reference.

7.16. Agricultural interventions towards rehabilitating food production are crucial. Restoring land productivity and rebuilding the farming system are vital for restarting production and economic activity.

7.17. Skills development and micro-enterprise development are necessary for reconstruction and livelihood creation/restoration. Special packages of livelihoods must be developed for the economic and social empowerment of disabled persons and widows, which should assist their integration into the society allowing them to lead an independent and dignified life.

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______Annexure 1

Rapid Food Security Assessment March 2006 Damaged Schools in EarthQuake affected Areas District completely damage schools Partialy Damaged schools Femal Mal Femal Grand Tehsil Male e Total % e e Total % Total Bagh Bagh 39 63 102 92 3 4 7 92 109 Dheer Kot 13 31 44 204 3 19 5 204 49 Haveli 49 46 95 81 13 16 29 81 124 Batagram Allai 152 37 189 52 0 2 2 52 191 Battagram 156 55 211 41 21 11 32 41 243 Kohistan Dassu 39 10 49 82 61 12 73 82 122 Palas 87 21 108 57 57 10 67 57 175 Pattan 51 13 64 149 19 8 27 149 67 Mansehra Balakot 320 93 413 23 19 8 27 23 440 FR Kala Dhaka 29 13 42 109 35 15 50 109 92 Mansehra 179 93 272 25 142 58 161 25 405 Oghi 67 30 97 43 87 47 134 43 231 Muzaffarabad Hattian 51 96 147 68 0 1 1 68 148 Muzaffarabad 139 228 367 25 15 23 38 25 404 Neelum Athmuqam 24 37 61 147 4 3 7 147 68 Sharda 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Shangla Alpuri 47 14 61 49 102 41 142 49 203 Bisham 22 10 32 139 27 10 30 139 72 Chakesar 17 2 19 250 13 8 21 250 40 Martung 11 2 13 263 17 8 25 263 38 Puran 7 10 17 101 48 34 82 101 99 Total: 1499 904 2403 95 686 338 960 95 3320

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Annexure-2

Rapid Food Security Asses s m e n t March 2006 Health Facilities Numbers Completely Damaged Partialy Damaged

District Tehsil Hospitals RHC BHU NGOs Disp Total Hospitals RHC BHU NGOs Disp Total Bagh Bagh 1 0 6 0 11 18 0 0 2 0 4 6 Dheer Kot 1 2 2 0 5 10 0 0 1 0 2 3 Haveli 0 0 5 0 4 9 0 2 2 0 9 13 Batagram Allai 1 0 12 0 4 17 0 0 1 0 0 1 Battagram 1 2 8 0 0 11 0 0 5 1 3 9 Kohistan Dassu 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 12 0 3 16 Palas 0 0 2 0 0 2 0 0 6 0 0 6 Pattan 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 7 0 0 8 Mansehra Balakot 0 3 8 0 4 15 0 1 1 1 0 3 Mansehra 1 3 14 0 4 22 2 3 18 0 7 30 Oghi 1 1 6 0 3 11 1 0 8 0 1 10 Muzaffarabad Hattian 1 1 8 0 7 17 0 1 1 0 0 2 Muzaffarabad 0 3 28 0 20 51 0 0 6 0 1 7 Neelum Athmuqam 1 0 4 0 2 7 0 0 3 0 5 8 Sharda 0 0 2 0 0 2 1 0 1 0 0 2 Shangla Alpuri 0 0 0 1 1 2 1 0 6 0 0 7 Bisham 0 0 2 0 0 2 1 0 1 0 1 3 Chakesar 1 0 2 0 0 3 1 0 1 0 0 2 Martung 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 2 Puran 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 3 0 2 6 Total: 9 15 110 1 65 200 8 9 87 2 38 144

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Annexure-3

Rapid Food Security Assessment March 2006 Food Insecurity Ranks in Earthquake Hit Areas Rank * Food S No. Province District Tehsil Union Council Insecurity 1 NWFP Shangla Chakesar Bunerwal 12 2 NWFP Shangla Chakesar Chakesar 14 3 NWFP Shangla Chakesar Opal 59 4 NWFP Shangla Chakesar Serkool 28 5 NWFP Shangla Martung Behlool Khail 22 6 NWFP Shangla Martung Ismail Khel 31 7 NWFP Shangla Martung Kamach Nasrat Khail 15 8 NWFP Shangla Martung Martung Khass 8 9 NWFP Shangla Puran Bar Puran 66 10 NWFP Shangla Bisham Dandai 113 11 NWFP Shangla Bisham Kormang 99 12 NWFP Shangla Puran Chowga 96 13 NWFP Shangla Puran Musa Khail 106 14 NWFP Shangla Alpuri Alpuri 153 15 NWFP Shangla Alpuri Damorai 150 16 NWFP Shangla Alpuri Shahpur 156 17 NWFP Shangla Bisham Maira 123 18 NWFP Shangla Bisham Shang 136 19 NWFP Shangla Bisham Botial 218 20 NWFP Shangla Puran Alouch 127 21 NWFP Shangla Puran Bengali 116 22 NWFP Shangla Alpuri Dehrai 192 23 NWFP Shangla Alpuri Kuz Kana 171 24 NWFP Shangla Alpuri Lilownai 220 25 NWFP Shangla Alpuri Malak Kheil 203 26 NWFP Shangla Alpuri Pir Abad 164 27 NWFP Shangla Alpuri Pir Khana 209 28 NWFP Shangla Alpuri Ranyal 165 29 NWFP Mansehra Mansehra Ahl Ichrian 21 30 NWFP Mansehra Mansehra Devli Jaberr 18 31 NWFP Mansehra Balakot Kewai 82 32 NWFP Mansehra Balakot Mohandri 75 33 NWFP Mansehra Mansehra Hilkot 50 34 NWFP Mansehra Mansehra Jaborri 38 35 NWFP Mansehra Mansehra Sacha Kalan 39 36 NWFP Mansehra Mansehra Sum Elahi Mung 72 37 NWFP Mansehra Mansehra Battal 105 38 NWFP Mansehra Mansehra Bhoger Mong 111 39 NWFP Mansehra Mansehra Chater Plain 104 40 NWFP Mansehra Balakot Ghanool 93 41 NWFP Mansehra Balakot Kaghan 97 42 NWFP Mansehra Balakot Satbani 90 43 NWFP Mansehra Balakot Shohal Mazullah 112 44 NWFP Mansehra Oghi Shanaya 101 45 NWFP Mansehra Balakot Balakot 147 46 NWFP Mansehra Balakot Garlat 129 47 NWFP Mansehra Balakot Ghari Habib Ullah 134 48 NWFP Mansehra Balakot Hangrai 119 49 NWFP Mansehra Balakot Karnol 131 50 NWFP Mansehra Balakot Talhata 144 51 NWFP Mansehra Mansehra Inayat Abad 143 52 NWFP Mansehra Mansehra Pairan 152 53 NWFP Mansehra Oghi Darband 145 54 NWFP Mansehra Oghi Karoori 155 55 NWFP Mansehra Mansehra Atter Shisha 183

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Annexure-3 Rank * Food S No. Province District Tehsil Union Council Insecurity 56 NWFP Mansehra Mansehra Baffa 172 57 NWFP Mansehra Mansehra Behali 173 58 NWFP Mansehra Mansehra Bher Kund 212 59 NWFP Mansehra Oghi Balian 200 60 NWFP Mansehra Oghi Bandi Shungli 185 61 NWFP Mansehra Mansehra Datta 201 62 NWFP Mansehra Mansehra Dhodial 180 63 NWFP Mansehra FR Kala Dhaka Aka Zai Section 215 64 NWFP Mansehra FR Kala Dhaka Bassi Khail Section 210 65 NWFP Mansehra FR Kala Dhaka Hassan Zai Section 217 66 NWFP Mansehra FR Kala Dhaka Mada Khel Section 219 67 NWFP Mansehra FR Kala Dhaka Nusrat Khel Section 214 68 NWFP Mansehra Mansehra Hamsherian 226 69 NWFP Mansehra Mansehra Jallu 224 70 NWFP Mansehra Mansehra Laber Kot 204 71 NWFP Mansehra Mansehra Lassan Nawab 175 72 NWFP Mansehra Mansehra Lassan Thakral 182 73 NWFP Mansehra Mansehra Malik Pur 194 74 NWFP Mansehra Mansehra Mansehra ( R ) 221 75 NWFP Mansehra Mansehra Mansehra City No.1 228 76 NWFP Mansehra Mansehra Mansehra City No.2 223 77 NWFP Mansehra Mansehra Mansehra City No.3 229 78 NWFP Mansehra Mansehra Mansehra City No.4 227 79 NWFP Mansehra Mansehra Parhina 222 80 NWFP Mansehra Mansehra Phulra 169 81 NWFP Mansehra Mansehra Sandasar 205 82 NWFP Mansehra Mansehra Sawan Mera 216 83 NWFP Mansehra Mansehra Shinkiari 168 84 NWFP Mansehra Mansehra Shoukatabad 166 85 NWFP Mansehra Mansehra Tanda 196 86 NWFP Mansehra Mansehra Trangri Sabir Shah 190 87 NWFP Mansehra Oghi Dilborri 197 88 NWFP Mansehra Oghi Kathai 193 89 NWFP Mansehra Oghi Nika Pani 170 90 NWFP Mansehra Oghi Oghi 225 91 NWFP Mansehra Oghi Shamdarra 213 92 NWFP Mansehra Oghi Shergarh 208 93 NWFP Kohistan Dassu Bar Jalkot 6 94 NWFP Kohistan Dassu Baryar 4 95 NWFP Kohistan Dassu Gabral 2 96 NWFP Kohistan Dassu Goshali 16 97 NWFP Kohistan Dassu Harban 46 98 NWFP Kohistan Dassu Karang 79 99 NWFP Kohistan Dassu Karin 45 100 NWFP Kohistan Dassu Sazeen 61 101 NWFP Kohistan Dassu Thoti 30 102 NWFP Kohistan Pattan Bankhad 64 103 NWFP Kohistan Palas Bar Sharyal 11 104 NWFP Kohistan Palas Bataira 56 105 NWFP Kohistan Pattan Chowa Dara 77 106 NWFP Kohistan Pattan Dubair Bala 67 107 NWFP Kohistan Palas Koli 63 108 NWFP Kohistan Palas Khata Kot 9

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Annexure-3

Rank * Food S No. Province District Tehsil Union Council Insecurity 109 NWFP Kohistan Palas Kunshair 29 110 NWFP Kohistan Palas Kuz Paro 78 111 NWFP Kohistan Palas Kuz Sharyal 7 112 NWFP Kohistan Palas Maidakhail 74 113 NWFP Kohistan Palas Peach Bela 3 114 NWFP Kohistan Palas Sharakot 35 115 NWFP Kohistan Palas Shared 17 116 NWFP Kohistan Dassu Kuz Jalkot 95 117 NWFP Kohistan Pattan Dubair Khas 94 118 NWFP Kohistan Palas Haran 98 119 NWFP Kohistan Pattan Ranolia 86 120 NWFP Kohistan Dassu Kuz Parwa 133 121 NWFP Kohistan Dassu Sigloo 122 122 NWFP Kohistan Pattan Dubair Pain 132 123 NWFP Kohistan Pattan Jijal 118 124 NWFP Kohistan Pattan Kayal 141 125 NWFP Kohistan Palas Shalkan Abad 124 126 NWFP Kohistan Dassu Dassu 195 127 NWFP Kohistan Dassu Komila 181 128 NWFP Kohistan Dassu Seo 158 129 NWFP Kohistan Pattan Pattan 184 130 NWFP Kohistan Pattan Sagayun 160 131 NWFP Batagram Allai Batkul 43 132 NWFP Batagram Allai Bateela 54 133 NWFP Batagram Allai Jambera 51 134 NWFP Batagram Allai Pashto 34 135 NWFP Batagram Allai Rashang 76 136 NWFP Batagram Allai Sakargah 10 137 NWFP Batagram Allai Banna 84 138 NWFP Batagram Allai Biari 92 139 NWFP Batagram Battagram Shumlai 103 140 NWFP Batagram Battagram Banian 138 141 NWFP Batagram Battagram Batamori 139 142 NWFP Batagram Battagram Pamal Sharif 142 143 NWFP Batagram Battagram Thakot 140 144 NWFP Batagram Battagram Rajdhari 148 145 NWFP Batagram Battagram Gijbori 178 146 NWFP Batagram Battagram Kuzabanda 202 147 NWFP Batagram Battagram Ajmera 187 148 NWFP Batagram Battagram Battagram 206 149 NWFP Batagram Battagram Peshora 186 150 NWFP Batagram Battagram Trand 188 151 PAK Neelum Athmuqam Ashkot 37 152 PAK Neelum Athmuqam Athmuqam (MC) 70 153 PAK Neelum Athmuqam Barian 33 154 PAK Neelum Sharda Dudnial 23 155 PAK Neelum Sharda Gurez 1 156 PAK Neelum Sharda Kel 5 157 PAK Neelum Athmuqam Kundal Shahi 32 158 PAK Neelum Athmuqam Neelum 27 159 PAK Neelum Athmuqam Shahkot 36 160 PAK Neelum Sharda Sharda 19 161 PAK Muzaffarabad Hattian Banamula 26

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Annexure-3

Rank * Food S No. Province District Tehsil Union Council Insecurity 162 PAK Muzaffarabad Hattian Chak Hama 49 163 PAK Muzaffarabad Hattian Gujar Bandi 60 164 PAK Muzaffarabad Hattian Khalana 44 165 PAK Muzaffarabad Hattian Leepa 24 166 PAK Muzaffarabad Hattian Sena Daman 42 167 PAK Muzaffarabad Muzaffarabad Balgran 71 168 PAK Muzaffarabad Muzaffarabad Bheri 25 169 PAK Muzaffarabad Muzaffarabad Jhand Gran 69 170 PAK Muzaffarabad Muzaffarabad Kai Manja 73 171 PAK Muzaffarabad Muzaffarabad Katkair 41 172 PAK Muzaffarabad Muzaffarabad Kot Komi 68 173 PAK Muzaffarabad Muzaffarabad Machyara 52 174 PAK Muzaffarabad Muzaffarabad Mera Kalan 55 175 PAK Muzaffarabad Muzaffarabad Punjgran 81 176 PAK Muzaffarabad Muzaffarabad Punjkot 40 177 PAK Muzaffarabad Muzaffarabad Sirli Sucha 20 178 PAK Muzaffarabad Muzaffarabad Talgran 62 179 PAK Muzaffarabad Hattian Chikar 109 180 PAK Muzaffarabad Hattian Lamnian 85 181 PAK Muzaffarabad Hattian Salmia 89 182 PAK Muzaffarabad Muzaffarabad Danna 115 183 PAK Muzaffarabad Muzaffarabad Hattian Dopatta 83 184 PAK Muzaffarabad Muzaffarabad Heer Kutli 108 185 PAK Muzaffarabad Muzaffarabad Kacheeli 110 186 PAK Muzaffarabad Muzaffarabad Kahori 87 187 PAK Muzaffarabad Muzaffarabad Noora Seri 100 188 PAK Muzaffarabad Muzaffarabad Saidpur 88 189 PAK Muzaffarabad Muzaffarabad Tharian 107 190 PAK Muzaffarabad Hattian Chinari 126 191 PAK Muzaffarabad Hattian Hattian Bala 137 192 PAK Muzaffarabad Hattian Langla 120 193 PAK Muzaffarabad Muzaffarabad Charkpura 128 194 PAK Muzaffarabad Muzaffarabad Chatter Domel 135 195 PAK Muzaffarabad Muzaffarabad Langar Pura 117 196 PAK Muzaffarabad Hattian Hattian 161 197 PAK Muzaffarabad Muzaffarabad Chatter Klass 157 198 PAK Muzaffarabad Muzaffarabad Garhi Dupatta 167 199 PAK Muzaffarabad Muzaffarabad Gojra 207 200 PAK Muzaffarabad Muzaffarabad Muzaffarabad 177 201 PAK Bagh Haveli Bhadi 13 202 PAK Bagh Haveli Budhal Sharif 48 203 PAK Bagh Haveli Chanjal 57 204 PAK Bagh Haveli Degwar 47 205 PAK Bagh Haveli Kala Mula 58 206 PAK Bagh Haveli Kalali 80 207 PAK Bagh Haveli Khurshid Abad 65 208 PAK Bagh Haveli Sangal 53 209 PAK Bagh Bagh Nar Sher Ali 91 210 PAK Bagh Dheer Kot Mallot 114 211 PAK Bagh Haveli Kahuta (TC) 102 212 PAK Bagh Bagh Banni Passari 149 213 PAK Bagh Bagh Bhount Bhayyan 146 214 PAK Bagh Bagh Bir Pani 125

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Annexure-3

Rank * Food S No. Province District Tehsil Union Council Insecurity 215 PAK Bagh Bagh Swanj 154 216 PAK Bagh Bagh Thub 121 217 PAK Bagh Dheer Kot Rangla 130 218 PAK Bagh Dheer Kot Sahlian Dhundan 151 219 PAK Bagh Bagh Bagh (Rural) 199 220 PAK Bagh Bagh Bagh (TC) 174 221 PAK Bagh Bagh Dharay 163 222 PAK Bagh Bagh Juglari 162 223 PAK Bagh Bagh Rawali 179 224 PAK Bagh Bagh Topi 189 225 PAK Bagh Dheer Kot Chamyati 191 226 PAK Bagh Dheer Kot Chirala 159 227 PAK Bagh Dheer Kot Dheer Kot 211 228 PAK Bagh Dheer Kot Hill Surang 198 229 PAK Bagh Dheer Kot Makhyala 176 * 1 being the most food insecure

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Annexure-4 Rapid Food Security Assessment March 2006 Proposed WFP Assisted Population

WFP WFP Union Proposed Union District Tehsil Total District Tehsil Total Proposed Council beneficiar Council beneficiaries ies

Kohistan Dassu Bar Jalkot 15,244 10,591 Bagh Haveli Bhadi 8,511 4,912

Budhal Kohistan Dassu Baryar 13,654 9,729 Bagh Haveli Sharif 11,206 3,397

Gabral Chanjal Kohistan Dassu 12,025 11,743 Bagh Haveli 14,476 4,125

Goshali Degwar Kohistan Dassu 13,754 6,819 Bagh Haveli 9,467 2,871

Harban Kala Mula Kohistan Dassu 11,129 3,415 Bagh Haveli 18,419 5,081

Karang Kalali Kohistan Dassu 11,639 2,705 Bagh Haveli 19,576 4,544 Khurshid Karin Kohistan Dassu 12,089 3,728 Bagh Haveli Abad 14,334 3,802

Sazeen Sangal Kohistan Dassu 10,727 2,915 Bagh Haveli 15,832 4,596

Thoti Banamula Kohistan Dassu 11,474 4,463 Muzaffarabad Hattian 13,464 5,599

Chak Hama Kohistan Pattan Bankhad 11,107 2,967 Muzaffarabad Hattian 20,590 6,226

Bar Sharyal Gujar Bandi Kohistan Palas 12,186 7,595 Muzaffarabad Hattian 16,764 4,560

Khalana Kohistan Palas Bataira 12,139 3,472 Muzaffarabad Hattian 10,179 3,145

Chowa Dara Leepa Kohistan Pattan 12,958 3,033 Muzaffarabad Hattian 11,973 5,119 Sena Dubair Bala Kohistan Pattan 11,536 2,992 Muzaffarabad Hattian Daman 11,448 3,564

Koli Balgran Kohistan Palas 11,261 3,031 Muzaffarabad Muzaffarabad 12,245 3,127 Khata Kot Bheri Kohistan Palas 11,083 7,545 Muzaffarabad Muzaffarabad 10,024 4,234 Kunshair Jhand Gran Kohistan Palas 12,152 4,808 Muzaffarabad Muzaffarabad 14,808 3,789 Kuz Paro Kai Manja Kohistan Palas 14,780 3,451 Muzaffarabad Muzaffarabad 21,559 5,475 Kuz Sharyal Katkair Kohistan Palas 11,110 7,684 Muzaffarabad Muzaffarabad 13,999 4,476 Kot Komi Kohistan Palas Maidakhail 12,210 2,981 Muzaffarabad Muzaffarabad 16,161 4,173 Peach Bela Machyara Kohistan Palas 15,420 13,784 Muzaffarabad Muzaffarabad 8,780 2,634 Sharakot Mera Kalan Kohistan Palas 12,166 4,287 Muzaffarabad Muzaffarabad 13,608 3,925 Shared Punjgran Kohistan Palas 14,632 7,138 Muzaffarabad Muzaffarabad 16,504 3,819 Batkul Punjkot Batagram Allai 25,017 7,731 Muzaffarabad Muzaffarabad 16,504 5,429 Bateela Sirli Sucha Batagram Allai 12,677 3,667 Muzaffarabad Muzaffarabad 14,012 6,228 Jambera Talgran Batagram Allai 13,009 3,918 Muzaffarabad Muzaffarabad 13,305 3,587 Pashto Ashkot Batagram Allai 13,309 4,726 Neelum Athmuqam 19,341 6,613 Athmuqam Rashang Batagram Allai 1 6 ,996 3,998 Neelum Athmuqam (MC) 1 5 , 5 6 1 3,974 Sakargah Barian Batagram Allai 1 6 ,164 1 0 , 4 22 Neelum Athmuqam 2 1 , 0 1 7 7,767 Bunerwal Dudnial Shangla Chakesar 1 6 ,968 1 0 , 5 36 Neelum Sharda 6 , 6 5 6 2,878 Chakesar Gurez Shangla Chakesar 2 0 ,003 1 1 , 4 72 Neelum Sharda 1 4 , 8 1 7 14,469

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WFP WFP Union Proposed Union District Tehsil Total District Tehsil Total Proposed Council beneficiar Council beneficiaries ies

Shangla Chakesar Opal 19,376 5,290 Neelum Sharda Kel 17,394 12,248 Kundal Serkool Shangla Chakesar 22,757 9,074 Neelum Athmuqam Shahi 14,390 5,401

Behlool Khail Shangla Martung 24,129 10,546 Neelum Athmuqam Neelum 24,020 9,936

Ismail Khel Shangla Martung 18,780 7,060 Neelum Athmuqam Shahkot 8,780 3,016 Kamach Shangla Martung Nasrat Khail 20,666 10,885 Neelum Sharda Sharda 11,036 5,003 Martung Shangla Martung Khass 22,898 15,823

Bar Puran Shangla Puran 18,087 4,729 TOTAL 1,253,820 490,000

Ahl Ichrian Mansehra Mansehra 25,415 11,167

Devli Jaberr Mansehra Mansehra 25,994 12,485

Kewai Mansehra Balakot 16,394 3,748

Mohandri Mansehra Balakot 26,868 6,431

Hilkot Mansehra Mansehra 18,501 5,578

Jaborri Mansehra Mansehra 16,076 5,475

Sacha Kalan Mansehra Mansehra 16,675 5,583 Sum Elahi Mansehra Mansehra Mung 19,827 5,037

VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS AND MAPPING (VAM) UNIT, WORLD FOOD PROGRAMME 43

POST-EARTHQUAKE RAPID FOOD SECURITY ASSESSMENT – MARCH 2006

Annexure - 5 Rapid Food Security Assessment March 2006 Community Priority ( First )

t r e s s s s s s y s s n n d n h e & & l t l r n e t

e e e e e e i g o o o o l t e i i i i e i i e i e u l n c l c g t t t n a t t o t t i n T i i i i r c e n l o l l l p d e r i a a a F i i i i n i a u d f t h t u t p l c i g r f H c c c a i i i c l o c

S a u i m i r a a a B h e u O n c S c r r

r l b i S

F F F I u

C e B u g a & s E e r

P d a h A m e d m t E e B a m o a R o c o W n R C Districts I Batagram 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 3 0 6 0 8 0 Kohistan 0 1 5 5 0 1 1 0 0 20 0 5 0 Mansehra 0 5 5 0 0 4 4 5 1 14 0 21 0 Shangla 0 3 4 4 0 0 1 0 0 5 0 10 0 Bagh 0 2 2 2 0 3 1 1 0 8 0 10 0 Muzaffarabad 1 3 6 0 0 3 0 4 2 9 1 11 0 Neelum 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 1 1 0 Total: 1 15 25 11 0 11 7 13 3 69 2 66 0

VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS AND MAPPING (VAM) UNIT, WORLD FOOD PROGRAMME 44

POST-EARTHQUAKE RAPID FOOD SECURITY ASSESSMENT – MARCH 2006

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Annexure - 6

Rapid Food Security Assessment March 2006 Community Priority ( First )

s n

n

e

o h

i t

&

e

o t g

t

y i l r s

s n s s s n s t t s d l

a r n

i a & i u g e e e e e r e o

a e e c t i i i r e i o c i e d t i l n n e l i t t t t i e e t c i n i m l i i i t l t l B r o n H r a u l l l p c a i

t n d e i i i o a e i a o c l u u p f g b c c a i i c c c & m c T h c i f i F

o r W r u a e r h a a a u m n u S l s d r I e O g S h S F F F I

C d B a E a m P e A E B o o R R Districts Tehsils C Allai 2 1 2 3 0 Batagram Batagram 3 0 Battagram 1 2 1 5 0 Dassu 2 2 1 10 0 Palas 1 9 3 0 Kohistan Pattan 1 3 1 1 0 Putton 1 1 2 0 Balakot 2 1 6 3 0 FR Kala Dhaka 0 Mansehra Mansehra 2 2 4 3 3 7 15 0 Oghi 1 3 1 2 1 3 0 Alpuri 1 1 1 1 6 0 Bisham 1 1 1 1 0 Shangla Chakesar 2 2 0 Martung 1 2 1 0 Puran 1 2 1 1 0 Bagh 1 2 1 1 3 4 0 Bagh Dheer Kot 1 1 1 1 1 3 0 Haveli 1 1 4 3 0 Hattian 2 2 1 1 4 3 0 Muzaffarabad Muzaffarabad 1 1 4 2 4 1 5 1 8 0 Neelum Athmuqam 1 7 1 1 0

VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS AND MAPPING (VAM) UNIT, WORLD FOOD PROGRAMME 45 POST-EARTHQUAKE RAPID FOOD SECURITY ASSESSMENT – MARCH 2006

Annexure - 7 Rapid Food Security A s s e ssment March 2006 Community Priorities ( All )

t r e s s s s s s y s s n n d n h e & & l t l r n e t

e e e e e e g i o o o o l t e i i i i e i i e i e u l n c l c g t t t n a t t o t t i n T i i i i r c e n l o l l l p d e r i a a a F i i i i n i a d u f t h t u t p l c i g r f H c c c a i i i c o l c

S a u i m i r a a a B h e u O n c S c r r

r l b i S

F F F I u

C e B u g a & s E e r

P d a h A m e d m t E e B a m o a R o c o W n R C Districts I Batagram 0 14 13 1 0 2 2 8 0 9 0 15 1 Kohistan 4 30 30 20 1 5 11 0 0 31 4 24 2 Mansehra 4 39 26 13 1 8 13 9 4 39 3 44 3 Shangla 0 19 13 12 0 0 2 2 0 23 3 25 2 Bagh 1 20 17 5 1 6 1 3 5 20 2 23 1 Muzaffarabad 1 25 18 0 1 7 0 10 8 24 5 25 2 Neelum 0 7 7 3 0 1 4 2 0 7 4 2 0 Total: 10 154 124 54 4 29 33 34 17 153 21 158 11

VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS AND MAPPING (VAM) UNIT, WORLD FOOD PROGRAMME 46

POST-EARTHQUAKE RAPID FOOD SECURITY ASSESSMENT – MARCH 2006

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Annexure - 8

Rapid Food Security Asses s m e n t March 2006 Community Priorities ( All )

s

s n s

e n

e

o e h

i t

c & i

e o t g t

l y r i l s r

s n s s s n t t d l a n r p i

a u & i g u e e e e o

a e c t i i i r e o p c e i d o t i n l n i t t t t i e e t i n i l i i i l t u l B r o n H S a u l l l c a i

t n

d e i i i e i a S o l u c f g b

c c a e i i c c c & m T c h i f i F

r r r a e r h a a a u m u S l s m e d r O e g h F F F t I C d B a E o a m P e A a E c B o o R n W R C Districts Tehsils I Allai 0 6 5 1 0 1 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 Batagram Batagram 0 3 3 0 0 0 1 0 0 3 0 2 0 Battagram 0 5 5 0 0 1 1 5 0 2 0 8 1 Dassu 0 13 13 10 1 1 4 0 0 13 0 10 2 Palas 1 9 9 5 0 3 4 0 0 14 3 8 0 Kohistan Pattan 3 4 4 4 0 1 1 0 0 2 0 2 0 Putton 0 4 4 1 0 0 2 0 0 2 1 4 0 Balakot 1 7 3 5 0 3 1 1 2 9 2 8 0 FR Kala Dhaka 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Mansehra Mansehra 3 22 14 8 0 5 10 5 2 23 1 29 2 Oghi 0 10 9 0 1 0 2 3 0 7 0 7 1 Alpuri 0 7 3 6 0 0 1 1 0 9 1 8 2 Bisham 0 3 3 1 0 0 0 1 0 3 0 2 0 Shangla Chakesar 0 5 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 4 0 Martung 0 1 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 3 2 4 0 Puran 0 3 3 0 0 0 1 0 0 3 0 7 0 Bagh 0 11 9 3 0 2 0 2 4 6 1 7 0 Bagh Dheer Kot 1 2 4 0 0 2 1 1 0 5 0 7 1 Haveli 0 7 4 2 1 2 0 0 1 9 1 9 0 Hattian 0 9 7 0 1 1 0 1 4 9 2 7 0 Muzaffarabad Muzaffarabad 1 16 11 0 0 6 0 9 4 15 3 18 2 Neelum Athmuqam 0 7 7 3 0 1 4 2 0 7 4 2 0

VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS AND MAPPING (VAM) UNIT, WORLD FOOD PROGRAMME 47 POST-EARTHQUAKE RAPID FOOD SECURITY ASSESSMENT – MARCH 2006 ______

VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS AND MAPPING (VAM) UNIT, WORLD FOOD PROGRAMME

48

Vulnerability Analysis and Mapping (VAM) Team

1 Sahib Haq (Head) 2 Muhammad Almas 3 Irfan Sarwar Gumman 4 Afsheen Anwar 5 Muhammad Siddique 6 Adeela Waheed 7 Amna Sadiq

VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS AND MAPPING (VAM) UNIT WORLD FOOD PROGRAMME, PAKISTAN