Is the Concept of Non-Partisan Voters Relevant to the Post-Democratized Southeast Asian Elections? 77

Is the concept of non-partisan voters relevant to the post-democratized Southeast Asian elections? 77 〈特集政治意識の諸相〉 Is the concept of non-partisan voters relevant to the post-democratized Southeast Asian elections?: The cases of the Philippines, Thailand and Indonesia. Yoko Yoshikawa summary: The rise of nonpartisan voters in the past decades are reported in the various studies on voting behavior in the developed democratic countries such as the US and Japan. Against this backdrop, it is the prime concern of this paper to make inquiries that whether or not the parallel partisans/nonpartisans, particularly the rise of nonpartisans, is discernable in the recently democratized (or democracy restored) Southeast Asian countries: the Philippines, Thailand and Indonesia. If it appears so, how it is explained and what the voting determinants are. Prior to proceeding to voting behaviors, the paper takes up the issues of democratic transition, the broader inclusive concept of the nonpartisans, the political and electoral institutional reforms, the behavior of political parties and party systems conducted in the three respective countries. The problems encountered are that, first, whether or not the concept of partisans vs. nonpartisan derived from the experiences in the developed countries can be adequately applied to the electorates whose political regime environment, the behaviors of political party and candidates, and electoral governance are different, and those who are basically identified with candidates or party leaders in the fluid multiparty system. Secondly the lack of solid and clear-cut evidence obtained from the outcome of surveys asking the electorates of the specific party identification or non-identification compelled to rely on the various different literatures and the election outcome. The conclusion remains to be the preliminary stage and it is desired that the studies on the candidate and party behavior along with the voting behavior in the post-democratized countries are extensively conducted. and to the realignment of political parties in the Introduction post-Cold War era in the shorter term. Studies on voting behavior increasingly reveal The problem that the practitioners and political that voting behavior of nonpartisan rather than analysts are concerned with is that such a large partisans has transformed into a politically signifi- share of nonpartisan voters make the voting and cant factor, as the share of the nonpartisan voters electoral outcome unpredictable (Kobayashi rise in the elections in the developed countries 2000:71) and corresponding decrease in the num- such as Japan and the US. Substantial part of bers of partisans and regular membership sup- these nonpartisan voters have been previously porting of the political parties. identified with or supported specific parties in The paper seeks to make inquiries into the vot- the mid-1960's or 1970's while some are younger ing behavior in electoral politics in relations to generation. The studies invariably trace the roots partisan/nonpartisan in the three post-democra- of this ongoing change to the transition relevant tized (including restored) developing countries of to the post industrial society in the longer term, Southeast Asia; the Philippines, Thailand and In- 選挙研究21号2006年 78 donesia with a comparative perspectives. Particu- gemonic party under an illiberal electoral system. lar interest rests in empirical analysis of kind of The persistent preference by the electorates for "nonpartisan" in relations to political parties , who the hegemonic party during authoritarian re- were supposed to be previously "partisans" in gimes can not be conceived as the "partisan" be- the days of illiberal democracy. After an introduc- havior in the same sense of those partisans in a tory summary of points, the constitutional and liberal democratic election. The former "parti- electoral system, the characteristics of political sans" are largely the product of the ruling regime party and party system, and finally the voting be- where the government intervention and manipu- haviors are discussed by country. It is in the hope lation under illiberal or illegal structure. It is de- that the more inclusive notion of the nonparti- ceptive to say that the political vector in the post- sans to be reconstructed as the basic voting be- democratized countries is moving from the for- havior by infusing the outcome from the cases of merly "partisans" to more of nonpartisans in the developing countries in Southeast Asia. same sense as we witness such shift in long es- Many existing studies of nonpartisans present tablished liberal democracy even if it appears so. the various notions of who are to be defined as Secondly, the paper is limited to the prelimi- the nonpartisan electorates by presenting elabo- nary analysis as no solid sample poll surveys are rate categorizations and typologies based on the readily available inquiring into the issues of outcome of intensive poll surveys: e. g. passive or partisan/nonpartisans in the three countries positive, politically concerned or apolitical etc. (though some available in Indonesia), which allow (Araki, 2001 and 2004; Ida, 2003; Ide, 2000 and us a clear cut conclusion. What are available are 2002; Kabashima and Ishio Miyake,1999; Tanaka the abundant pre-and post-electoral surveys on 1999 and 2004). Moreover the different models the specific election results. Many of these are and hypothesis on voting behaviors which are the analysis of voting behavior using socio, drawn from individual survey suffer from the diffi- economic, and cultural variables and almost none culties of generalization (Kobayashi, Chapter 11 ask whether or not the respondents are support- pp. 163-171). Yet many of them are exclusively de- ing on a daily basis or consistently voted for spe- rived from the cases of party preferences in the cific parties in the consecutive elections. Thus I long established democracy, which may or may am compelled to rely on available descriptive lit- not accord to the post-democratized cases. eratures on political parties and statistical reports Admittedly there are limits in applying to the on electoral results from which related to the con- post-democratized countries the notions of cept of nonpartisans of the three countries. The partisan/nonpartisan which was learned from the conclusion is tentative and much have to be done long experienced democratic countries. First, it is before reaching a strong conclusion. not only the post cold war factor but other factor The third and the fundamental question is like different political vector and milieu that the whether the notion of nonpartisans can meaning- given political structures should be taken into fully explain the voting behavior against the no- consideration. In full or semi-authoritarian re- tion of partisans in the country where the gimes, the electorates were either compelled, or political party system itself is mostly character- forced, or mobilized as well as willing to continue ized by identical, less ideological and weak to support the ruling government party or the he- platform-based party but predominantly Is the concept of non-partisan voters relevant to the post-democratized Southeast Asian elections? 79 candidate-centered party like the cases of the I am excluding a sort of core groups from the Philippines and Thailand. The party reorganiza- discussion, which are constituted of the immedi- tions rooted from various actors such as the prac- ate and extended families, kinship network, close tice of frequent party switching by the aides, friends, proteges and clients in the clien- candidates, the entries of new parties by new can- telism whose absolute loyalty to the specific candidates, the mergers and the coalitions making didate are embedded in the social networks. among the parties, and quick rise and fall of par- They mobilized vote-getting networks for a spe- ties at almost every election, make the party sys- cific candidate, not for political party as tem exceedingly fluid. The common responses of organization. The family members are often the the electorates to this party fluidity are to go for biggest contributors of political funds. the split ticket voting in the same or consecutive I Transitions toward democratic and so- elections. Another factor is that in the transi- cial changes: political party as tional countries where the voting structure com- prerequisite for democratic consolidation manded by local patrons and their intermediate The Philippines, Thailand, and Indonesia are in leaders, by means of local clientelism, money poli- the process of long term transitions in two tics, vote buying, bribery of the electoral officials, arenas: political and social, having emerged from frauds and riggings, intimidation, threat (death) an prolonged authoritarian regime and illiberal and election violence remain an integral part of democracy. The Philippines restored democratic election, if not the majority, it is difficult to apply regime after thirteen years under the Marcos meaningfully the conceptual tools of partisans Martial law regime (1971-1986). Indonesia was and nonpartisan to explain the voting behavior of democratized after thirty three years of the Su- the post-democratized countries. harto military authoritarian regime (1965-1998) Finally for the purpose of discussion in this pa- and Thailand after a periodic cycle of military re- per, let me take the liberty to define the term gime and civilian government until early 90's. "nonpartisans" as

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