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North American Forest Futures 2018–2090 WFRXXX10.1177/1946756718757751World Futures ReviewBengston et al. 757751research-article2018 Article World Futures Review 2018, Vol. 10(2) 152 –169 North American Forest © The Author(s) 2018 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.com/journalsPermissions.nav Futures 2018–2090: Scenarios https://doi.org/10.1177/1946756718757751DOI: 10.1177/1946756718757751 for Building a More Resilient journals.sagepub.com/home/wfr Forest Sector David N. Bengston1, Jonathan Peck2, Robert Olson2, Melissa Barros3, Richard A. Birdsey4, Daniel R. Williams5, Juan Carlos Leyva Reyes6, and Francisco José Zamudio7 Abstract North American forests and forest management institutions are experiencing a wide range of significant ecological disturbances and socioeconomic changes, which point to the need for enhanced resilience. A critical capacity for resilience in institutions is strategic foresight. This article reports on a project of the North American Forest Commission to use Futures Research to enhance the resilience of forest management institutions in North America. The Aspirational Futures Method was used to develop four alternative scenarios for the future of North American forests and forestry agencies: (1) an extrapolation of current trends into the expectable future titled Stressed Forests, (2) a scenario of growing desperation titled Megadisturbances Call for Military Intervention, (3) a high aspiration future titled High Tech Transformation and Cooperation, and (4) an alternative pathway to a highly preferable future titled Cultural Transformation Embraces Indigenous Values. These scenarios will be used in discussions and futures exercises with forestry leaders to develop foresight and assure that plans are responsive to the challenges and opportunities ahead. Keywords scenarios, Aspirational Futures, North American Forest Commission, forestry, forest service, resilience Introduction: The Changing institutions are also experiencing the effects of Context for North American many significant challenges, in addition to the Forests and Forestry barrage of ecological disturbances, such as Institutions 1Northern Research Station, St. Paul, MN, USA North American forests are experiencing a wide 2Institute for Alternative Futures, Alexandria, VA, USA range of significant ecological disturbances, 3Canadian Forest Service, Ottawa, ON, Canada including climate change, nonnative invasive 4Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, MA, USA 5 species, severe wildfires, and forest fragmenta- Rocky Mountain Research Station, Ft. Collins, CO, USA 6Comisión Nacional Forestal, San Juan de Ocotán, México tion (Bengston and Dockry 2014). Millar and 7 Universidad Autónoma Chapingo, Texcoco, México Stephenson (2015) have identified the emergence of megadisturbances—multiple and interacting Corresponding Author: disturbances such as hotter droughts—that are David N. Bengston, US Forest Service, Northern Research Station, 1992 Folwell Avenue, St. Paul, MN pushing some temperate forests beyond thresh- 55108, USA. olds of sustainability. Government forestry Email: [email protected] Bengston et al. 153 shrinking budgets, a growing societal disconnect Commission (NAFC) agencies—the national with nature, shifting environmental values, and forestry agencies of Canada, Mexico, and the accelerating pace and complexity of change. United States—to plan and operate within an Emerging megadisturbances, accelerating environment of growing uncertainty and rapid social and economic change, and growing com- change. The NAFC is one of six Regional plexity and uncertainty all point to the need for Forestry Commissions of the Food and enhanced resilience in North American forests Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and forestry institutions. Ecological definitions of (FAO 2016). The mission of the NAFC is to pro- resilience emphasize the ability of a system to vide a policy and technical forum for Canada, absorb or accommodate disturbances without Mexico, and the United States to discuss and experiencing fundamental changes to the system address North American forest issues. The NAFC (Davidson 2010). For example, Walker et al. also supports research and sustainable natural (2006, 2) define resilience as “. the capacity of resource management activities through working a system to experience shocks while retaining groups that explore issues of concern to the three essentially the same function, structure, feed- countries. This article is a product of the NAFC’s backs, and therefore identity.” But the potential Ad Hoc Resilience Working Group (RWG), ecological disturbances facing North American charged with using Futures Research to enhance forests are so significant that they will likely cause the resilience of forest resource management fundamental changes in the structure and function institutions in North America. of forest ecosystems. Forest management institu- The Aspirational Futures method, described tions are facing the clear possibility of fundamen- in the following section, was used to develop tal shifts in organizational structure and culture to four alternative scenarios for the future of adapt to change. Therefore, traditional ecological North American forests and forest manage- definitions of resilience may be less appropriate ment agencies. The complete scenarios are for North American forestry in the twenty-first presented, followed by a summary of how they century than broader definitions, which include will be used as a catalyst for discussions and notions of adaptation and adjustment, for exam- exercises with NAFC leaders. ple, “the ability of groups or communities to cope with external stresses and disturbances as a result The Aspirational Futures of social, political, and environmental change” Method (Adger 2000, 347). This broader definition includes the social and institutional adaptations The Aspirational Futures approach was devel- that occur with changing ecosystems. oped by the Institute for Alternative Futures to A critical capacity for resilience in institutions address both the inherent uncertainty that sce- is alertness to patterns of change, especially those narios should encompass and the ability of lead- that challenge the underlying assumptions that ers to use vision, which can alter trajectories drive current strategies and programs (Berkes toward more favorable futures (Bezold 2009). et al. 2003). Alert institutions strive to anticipate The method uses forecasts of drivers of change change, spot emerging threats and opportunities that fall into three zones that define a set of four quickly, and shape robust policies and programs scenarios (Figure 1). These drivers and their that work under a wide range of future condi- forecasts are anticipated to force change with tions. They develop the essential capacity for complex interactions that make a single predic- strategic foresight, that is, “the ability to create tion unrealistic. The distinct zones encompass a and maintain a high-quality, coherent, and func- larger degree of uncertainty than a simple pre- tional forward view and to use the insights aris- diction, making the scenarios helpful for devel- ing in organizationally useful ways; for example, oping strategies for maintaining institutional to detect adverse conditions, guide policy, [and] agility in the context of multiple possibilities shape strategy” (Slaughter 2002, 104). and fundamental uncertainties. This article reports on a project to apply con- The three zones depicted in Figure 1—con- cepts and methods from Futures Research to ventional expectations, growing desperation, and enhance the ability of the North American Forest high aspiration—are a key to the Aspirational 154 World Futures Review 10(2) to the three zones in Figure 1. See the appendix for a brief summary of each driver and key ref- erences related to the forecasts. The forecasts (i.e., the range of possibilities for each driver) were built into four alternative scenarios for North American forests. Table 1 summarizes, in outline form, how the drivers might plausi- bly develop and interact in the future. Scenario 1 falls in the “zone of conventional expectation” (Figure 1), which reflects the extrapolation of known trends into the expectable Figure 1. Aspirational Futures model (Bezold future. This scenario was titled Stressed Forests. 2009). A second scenario, Megadisturbances Call for Military Intervention, sits squarely in the “zone Futures method. Organizations, like individuals, of growing desperation,” which presents a set of often lose touch with their higher aspiration. plausible challenges that North American forests Dealing with all the changing circumstances and and forest services may face over the next seven problems coming at them day to day puts them in decades. Scenario 3, High Tech Transformation a reactive mind-set. It is easy for an organization and Cooperation, offers one of two futures in the to become a victim of circumstances rather than “zone of high aspiration.” This scenario empha- focusing on actions to shape the circumstances to sizes science-and-technology-based solutions achieve their aspirations. An effective way to that can address twenty-first-century challenges. counteract this tendency is to refocus attention on Scenario 4, Cultural Transformation Embraces aspirations. Having two highly aspirational sce- Indigenous Values, describes a cultural shift that narios for discussion forces people in organiza- shapes how people change their relationship to tions to think about what they really want and forests and the way society values
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