North American Forest Futures 2018–2090

WFRXXX10.1177/1946756718757751World Futures ReviewBengston et al. research-article7577512018

Article

World Futures Review 2018, Vol. 10(2) 152–169 North American Forest © The Author(s) 2018 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.com/journalsPermissions.nav Futures 2018–2090: Scenarios https://doi.org/10.1177/1946756718757751DOI: 10.1177/1946756718757751 for Building a More Resilient journals.sagepub.com/home/wfr Forest Sector

David N. Bengston1, Jonathan Peck2, Robert Olson2, Melissa Barros3, Richard A. Birdsey4, Daniel R. Williams5, Juan Carlos Leyva Reyes6, and Francisco José Zamudio7

Abstract North American forests and forest management institutions are experiencing a wide range of significant ecological disturbances and socioeconomic changes, which point to the need for enhanced resilience. A critical capacity for resilience in institutions is strategic foresight. This article reports on a project of the North American Forest Commission to use Futures Research to enhance the resilience of forest management institutions in North America. The Aspirational Futures Method was used to develop four alternative scenarios for the future of North American forests and forestry agencies: (1) an extrapolation of current trends into the expectable future titled Stressed Forests, (2) a scenario of growing desperation titled Megadisturbances Call for Military Intervention, (3) a high aspiration future titled High Tech Transformation and Cooperation, and (4) an alternative pathway to a highly preferable future titled Cultural Transformation Embraces Indigenous Values. These scenarios will be used in discussions and futures exercises with forestry leaders to develop foresight and assure that plans are responsive to the challenges and opportunities ahead.

Keywords scenarios, Aspirational Futures, North American Forest Commission, forestry, forest service, resilience

Introduction: The Changing institutions are also experiencing the effects of Context for North American many significant challenges, in addition to the Forests and Forestry barrage of ecological disturbances, such as Institutions 1Northern Research Station, St. Paul, MN, USA North American forests are experiencing a wide 2Institute for Alternative Futures, Alexandria, VA, USA range of significant ecological disturbances, 3Canadian Forest Service, Ottawa, ON, Canada including climate change, nonnative invasive 4Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, MA, USA 5 species, severe wildfires, and forest fragmenta- Rocky Mountain Research Station, Ft. Collins, CO, USA 6Comisión Nacional Forestal, San Juan de Ocotán, México tion (Bengston and Dockry 2014). Millar and 7 Universidad Autónoma Chapingo, Texcoco, México Stephenson (2015) have identified the emergence of megadisturbances—multiple and interacting Corresponding Author: disturbances such as hotter droughts—that are David N. Bengston, US Forest Service, Northern Research Station, 1992 Folwell Avenue, St. Paul, MN pushing some temperate forests beyond thresh- 55108, USA. olds of sustainability. Government forestry Email: [email protected] Bengston et al. 153 shrinking budgets, a growing societal disconnect Commission (NAFC) agencies—the national with nature, shifting environmental values, and forestry agencies of Canada, Mexico, and the accelerating pace and complexity of change. United States—to plan and operate within an Emerging megadisturbances, accelerating environment of growing uncertainty and rapid social and economic change, and growing com- change. The NAFC is one of six Regional plexity and uncertainty all point to the need for Forestry Commissions of the Food and enhanced resilience in North American forests Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and forestry institutions. Ecological definitions of (FAO 2016). The mission of the NAFC is to pro- resilience emphasize the ability of a system to vide a policy and technical forum for Canada, absorb or accommodate disturbances without Mexico, and the United States to discuss and experiencing fundamental changes to the system address North American forest issues. The NAFC (Davidson 2010). For example, Walker et al. also supports research and sustainable natural (2006, 2) define resilience as “. . . the capacity of resource management activities through working a system to experience shocks while retaining groups that explore issues of concern to the three essentially the same function, structure, feed- countries. This article is a product of the NAFC’s backs, and therefore identity.” But the potential Ad Hoc Resilience Working Group (RWG), ecological disturbances facing North American charged with using Futures Research to enhance forests are so significant that they will likely cause the resilience of forest resource management fundamental changes in the structure and function institutions in North America. of forest ecosystems. Forest management institu- The Aspirational Futures method, described tions are facing the clear possibility of fundamen- in the following section, was used to develop tal shifts in organizational structure and culture to four alternative scenarios for the future of adapt to change. Therefore, traditional ecological North American forests and forest manage- definitions of resilience may be less appropriate ment agencies. The complete scenarios are for North American forestry in the twenty-first presented, followed by a summary of how they century than broader definitions, which include will be used as a catalyst for discussions and notions of adaptation and adjustment, for exam- exercises with NAFC leaders. ple, “the ability of groups or communities to cope with external stresses and disturbances as a result The Aspirational Futures of social, political, and environmental change” Method (Adger 2000, 347). This broader definition includes the social and institutional adaptations The Aspirational Futures approach was devel- that occur with changing ecosystems. oped by the Institute for Alternative Futures to A critical capacity for resilience in institutions address both the inherent uncertainty that sce- is alertness to patterns of change, especially those narios should encompass and the ability of lead- that challenge the underlying assumptions that ers to use vision, which can alter trajectories drive current strategies and programs (Berkes toward more favorable futures (Bezold 2009). et al. 2003). Alert institutions strive to anticipate The method uses forecasts of drivers of change change, spot emerging threats and opportunities that fall into three zones that define a set of four quickly, and shape robust policies and programs scenarios (Figure 1). These drivers and their that work under a wide range of future condi- forecasts are anticipated to force change with tions. They develop the essential capacity for complex interactions that make a single predic- strategic foresight, that is, “the ability to create tion unrealistic. The distinct zones encompass a and maintain a high-quality, coherent, and func- larger degree of uncertainty than a simple pre- tional forward view and to use the insights aris- diction, making the scenarios helpful for devel- ing in organizationally useful ways; for example, oping strategies for maintaining institutional to detect adverse conditions, guide policy, [and] agility in the context of multiple possibilities shape strategy” (Slaughter 2002, 104). and fundamental uncertainties. This article reports on a project to apply con- The three zones depicted in Figure 1—con- cepts and methods from Futures Research to ventional expectations, growing desperation, and enhance the ability of the North American Forest high aspiration—are a key to the Aspirational 154 World Futures Review 10(2)

to the three zones in Figure 1. See the appendix for a brief summary of each driver and key references related to the forecasts. The forecasts (i.e., the range of possibilities for each driver) were built into four alternative scenarios for North American forests. Table 1 summarizes, in outline form, how the drivers might plausi- bly develop and interact in the future. Scenario 1 falls in the “zone of conventional expectation” (Figure 1), which reflects the extrapolation of known trends into the expectable Figure 1. Aspirational Futures model (Bezold future. This scenario was titled Stressed Forests. 2009). A second scenario, Megadisturbances Call for Military Intervention, sits squarely in the “zone Futures method. Organizations, like individuals, of growing desperation,” which presents a set of often lose touch with their higher aspiration. plausible challenges that North American forests Dealing with all the changing circumstances and and forest services may face over the next seven problems coming at them day to day puts them in decades. Scenario 3, High Tech Transformation a reactive mind-set. It is easy for an organization and Cooperation, offers one of two futures in the to become a victim of circumstances rather than “zone of high aspiration.” This scenario empha- focusing on actions to shape the circumstances to sizes science-and-technology-based solutions achieve their aspirations. An effective way to that can address twenty-first-century challenges. counteract this tendency is to refocus attention on Scenario 4, Cultural Transformation Embraces aspirations. Having two highly aspirational sce- Indigenous Values, describes a cultural shift that narios for discussion forces people in organiza- shapes how people change their relationship to tions to think about what they really want and forests and the way society values nature. In both what is possible to achieve. aspirational scenarios (3 and 4), a critical mass of The first step in developing the NAFC sce- stakeholders pursues visionary strategies and narios was to identify a set of drivers that are achieves surprising success on two alternative likely to be important in shaping the future of pathways to highly preferable futures. North American forests and forest management It should be stressed that the scenarios are not agencies to the year 2090. A more than seventy- predictions. They are research-based descriptions year time horizon was chosen because of the of a range of possible futures that intentionally long-term nature of forestry—foresters routinely span a broader range of future circumstances use exceptionally long time frames in planning. than are usually considered in planning. The idea Research was done by RWG members to identify is to encompass a large “possibility space” to broad North American drivers that are not spe- engage stakeholders to think about how serious cific to individual countries (see appendix). the situation could become and about what bold More detailed, country-specific drivers and action might achieve. The scenarios are pre- scenarios will be developed in subsequent sented in the following section. work. The following broad categories of drivers were selected (Table 1): social change driv- Alternative Scenarios ers (social values, relation to nature, economy), climate change drivers (temperature increase, for North American impacts on forests), North American forest Forests—2018 to 2090 management agency drivers (wildfire and mis- Scenario 1: Stressed Forests sion shift, organizational form, leadership culture), and technology. Surveying the prospects for North American Trends in these drivers were used to develop forests in 2090, the NAFC Commissioners forecasts for expected, challenging, and two look worried. Budget cuts, political turmoil visionary paths for each driver corresponding forcing turnover, and angry legislators who fail Bengston et al. 155

Table 1. Scenario Matrix: Key Drivers of Change for North American Forestry and Forest Management Agencies, and Forecasts for Each Scenario.

Zone of conventional Zone of growing expectation desperation Zone of high aspiration

Scenario 2: Scenario 3: Scenario 4: Megadisturbances High tech Cultural transformation Key drivers of Scenario 1: call for military transformation and embraces indigenous change Stressed forests intervention cooperation values Societal values Similar to today Strongly Emphasis on Emphasis on heightened meaningful welfare of future emphasis on activities, generations, entire security friendships, community of life quality of life Relation to People increasingly Growing alienation Harmonizing Growing influence nature disconnected from nature; human design of native people’s from nature nature viewed as and technology worldview; humans hostile, failing with nature part of nature Economy Moderate growth; High growth Moderate growth Moderate to low job loss due to until climate with large growth robotics and AI catastrophes investments of 2070s, in technical then collapse, innovation insecurity Climate change: 3°C increase from 4°C increase by Collapse of West Largest peacetime temperature the preindustrial 2090 Antarctic ice effort in history increase level by 2090 sheet spurs global limits temperature efforts; 2°C rise to 1.5°C by increase by 2090 2090 Climate change: Worsening Megadisturbances Renewable energy Impacts on North impacts on wildfires, push many technology and American forests forests invasive species, forests beyond geoengineering are modest in most insect pests and thresholds, breakthroughs areas pathogens; some some convert to limit impacts forests convert shrublands and to new forest grasslands types Forest agencies: Most resources Military takes over Global Wildfire paradigm wildfire and devoted to firefighting; role Reforestation shift, learning to live mission shift firefighting; of forest services Initiative with fire severe budget declines sharply restores constraints; low agencies’ innovation finances and range of activity Forest agencies: Bureaucratic/ Military Network and Ecological organizational hierarchical ecosystem form model Forest agencies: Technical Military/technical Adaptive Visionary leadership culture Technology Sensors to monitor Synthetic biology; Environmentally Quantum biology; forests; wood advanced advanced and biomimicry nanomaterials; technologies for renewable energy GMOs the wealthy technologies

Note. AI = artificial intelligence; GMO = genetically modified organism. 156 World Futures Review 10(2) to fund forest services and then blame agency fear for the loss of most forests in the twenty- heads for the results mark the political land- second century. scape while forests decline. The most promising developments for The average global temperature increased North American forests come from the private 2°C beyond the preindustrial level by 2065 and sector, nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), is now nearing 3°C. This led to a sharp increase and networks of academic scientists rather in wildfires, the spread of invasive species, and than from forest services. The academics and a host of insect pests and pathogens more NGOs bring a commitment to sustainability destructive than even the most devastating for- that influences corporate policy and moderates est fires. Some thresholds of forest adaptability the tendency to overexploit forest resources for have been crossed, and many forests have con- short-term profit. The forest services play a verted to novel forest ecosystems. The changes small role in regulating this tension between have been large enough to cause a serious competing interests but are forced to devote decline in forest ecosystem services, including most of their inadequate resources to fighting a vast release of forest carbon into the the wildfires that grow larger and more destruc- atmosphere. tive each decade. Public attention turns to forests sporadi- With the weakening public sector role in cally as ever more frequent and severe natu- promoting forest health, industry leads the ral disturbances threaten the growing development of new approaches and technolo- population of squatters and landowners who gies for forest management. Forest products have moved into the wildland–urban inter- follow a path similar to agriculture as commer- face (WUI) over the decades. The paradox of cialized genetic variants enable faster growing degrading forests interwoven with an species to be farmed in forestlands. This has increasing population living in the WUI and accelerated the fragmentation into ecological demanding fire protection barely registers niches that turned forests into a checkerboard with most politicians and the majority of the of remnant natural stands of trees, private public living in cities. As a result, the forest lands open for development, and commercial services face relentless pressure to fight forests where soils and plants are managed to wildfires while funding for other work optimize profits. This drive for profits does shrinks to the point where most of their bring new technologies for water management capacity is absorbed by the demands of fire and fire suppression that subsequently became management. During their quarterly holo- available to forest services. However, the tech- conference meetings (travel for in-person nological innovations of the twenty-first cen- meetings was eliminated long ago), the tury have, at best, enabled better adaptation to Commissioners regularly commiserate over the warming climate and degradation of North their inability to address the fundamental American forests. Sure, smart forest sensors stressors that threaten the forests of Mexico, identify threats, and computer models based the United States, and Canada. on predictive analytics show what will result. Early in the twenty-first century, strategic Yet the forest services are unable to mobilize thinkers in each of the North American forest resources to maintain well-functioning forests. services could see most of the emerging threats Few people in North American forest services that have now become so serious. While in 2090 see any technological fixes that might shelves full of studies and reports forewarned bring about a return to the thriving wildlands the agencies, they were not forearmed. of centuries past. Governments had other priorities, and citizens The economic shifts in North America offer were too preoccupied with economic insecuri- part of the explanation for why many promis- ties, fears of terrorists, and lost ways of life to ing technologies have not been deployed to have made forest health a priority. The great protect forest health. Workers across many forests have not disappeared in 2090, but they fields have been displaced in the shift to are diminished and fragmented so that many knowledge-based economies. Whether people Bengston et al. 157 worked in extractive (farms, mines, and for- rise by 4°C, and nobody but forest “bugs and ests), manufacturing, or service sectors, they crud” scientists foresaw how pests and pathogens lost jobs to disruptive innovations—robots and would prey on forests as well as humans. Over artificial intelligences. This trend hit a take-off the decades leading to 2090, North American for- point in the mid-2020s, and by the 2050s, ests suffered many megadisturbances—hotter many knowledge workers were at risk for hav- droughts and more frequent and severe megafires ing their jobs taken by smart machines. Only interacting with other stressors—that grew in by pursuing new knowledge and entering scale and pushed many forests beyond thresholds domains where emotional intelligence still of sustainability. Many forested areas con- offered human advantage could workers main- verted into nonforest ecosystems such as tain middle-class or elite jobs. For those who shrublands and grasslands. Forest ecosystem fall behind, the insecurity was heightened by services such as flood control, carbon storage, the large number of ecological refugees com- and wildlife habitat severely declined. The ing from Africa, Asia, Latin America, and the effects of the ecological damage cascaded Caribbean where the economic prospects of through North American societies, disrupting working in agriculture and manufacturing communities, wrecking economies, and under- turned bleak. In a world of 12.6 billion people, mining political stability. Nobody could have the great majority struggle to find work and known how fully the resource heritages of the live where community economics forms the United States, Canada, and Mexico could erode basis of livelihood marked by barter and do-it- in just a matter of decades. Yet most historians in yourself production. 2090 blame the global failures to act early in the While bad for workers, many smart investors century when evidence became clear that climate saw that the efficiency gains from disruptive and other environmental changes would have innovations, such as wood-based nanomateri- massively destructive consequences. als, would make forest products more valu- Take an elder into a forest today, and what able. Throughout the 2030s, investor groups they note first is the silence. “What happened bought large swaths of timberlands and lob- to the birds that used to fill the air with their bied effectively to minimize the intrusion of songs?” The same thing that happened to the government regulations, which could reduce frogs, salamanders, bees, and many species of profitability of forest products. By the 2070s, wildlife that used to populate the now degraded the concentration of ownership in global con- and fragmented forests of North America. glomerates meant that there were few wild- Many native species disappeared, and most lands held by small companies. Entrepreneurial animal populations diminished, except for the businesses over recent decades have even growing numbers of humans, many of whom made urban forests profitable. In 2084, the sprawled into the forests from expanding cities boutique urban forest chain Ectopia won a and towns during the roaring decades from the global business of the year award for its com- 2020s to the 2060s. But in the disastrous 2070s, bination of ecotourism, exotic wood crafts, and with climate change passing tipping points and “homes for the stars,” which were featured on the world population ballooning to 10.3 bil- entertainment channels focused on the lives of lion, death rates soared from pandemics, sear- rich and beautiful people. For this stratum, ing droughts, food system failures, wars, and natural wood products are prized, and living in relentless onslaughts from storms that devas- urban forests is romantic. tated coastal areas while disrupting inland agriculture with large-scale flooding. The Scenario 2: Megadisturbances Call global population shrunk to 9.5 billion by for Military Intervention 2080. A quarter of these people lead precarious lives. Many have become ecological refugees. It was worse than anticipated, worse for humans, Tens of millions of them crossed North forests, and wildlife. Only a few Cassandras American borders, and many migrated into expected average temperatures worldwide would North America’s forests and wilderness areas 158 World Futures Review 10(2) where they scratch out marginal existences. megafires,” and only the Department of However, many of these forests that were once Defense could mobilize and sustain such a used for recreation are off-limits in 2090 for force. Canada alone retained its forest service most citizens without armed escorts. Wooded under Natural Resources Canada. In 2090, wastelands are now battlegrounds between across North America, different uniforms face migrants trying to eke out a life, robotic log- the same overwhelming problems. In the gers reaping profits, and forest hackers who sprawling urban areas that dominate Mexico, wage their war of ecoterrorism against the the United States, and southern Canada, the robots they claim are raping Mother Earth for worries about North American forests seems corporate overlords. remote and unimportant. Daily life grew In many forests, invasives and alien species increasingly insecure for the growing number outcompeted native species to create strange of urban poor over the past generation. plant monocultures, some of which are eco- Personal safety is the number one concern as nomically valuable as energy feedstocks. drug cartels and terrorists grab headlines most Corporations also engineered new species for days, and criminals prey on vulnerable people their purposes. One report describes a barrier every day. Decaying infrastructures also bring of virulent poison ivy with thorns, designed to daily worry as sewage and waste disposal keep humans away from remaining natural problems hit more cities, making potable water stands and tree farms of genetically engineered more difficult to obtain for those without trees. These are now the domain of robots that means. The degradation of forests has also harvest the natural resources forests still offer. made drinking water scarce in many areas of Fragmentation has redefined much of the North America. Air pollution from forest fire woodlands that now quilt rural lands across the smoke and other particulates from drying wild- North American landscape. Agriculture and lands have led to chronic respiratory diseases forestry compete to define the different par- throughout the population. National power cels, with developers building new luxury grids proved vulnerable to both storms and ter- homes designed to retain the illusion of undis- rorists, so regional and local grids increasingly turbed nature. Many of the larger structures took over starting in the 2030s. Now many of were built during the economic boom times these grids fail frequently so people adapt to and are now in ruins. Still, there are wealthy intermittent power. Government services tend people with the ability to build quickly using to be no more reliable, except for those who 3D printers. This means developers still push are well connected. Such people live in pro- against forested areas despite the constant dan- tected high rises and gated communities where ger from wildfires. surveillance drones and patrolling robots The unrelenting rise of large wildfires led assure safety, public order, and surveillance the U.S. government to reorganize the U.S. against pathogens. These areas are safer than Forest Service in 2044, following the lead of the sprawl where slum dwellers live, but life in Mexico, which gave the military responsibility the cities always feels like it is one megastorm, for protecting forests a decade earlier. Both bomb blast, kidnapping, or microbe away from countries sought to ameliorate the anger of catastrophe. influential citizens whose homes were Economic insecurity also pervades despite destroyed by megafires and who felt threat- the glittering world of the megawealthy who ened by the growing number of migrants and still show what life can be when technology ecological refugees in the forests. The under- makes new possibilities come to life. Their funded forest services had seen their budgets dazzling lifestyles include personal robots that taken completely over by the need to fight combine the functions of valet, body guard, megafires, losing their other functions entirely. and personal assistant. Their homes change Politicians blamed the agencies and put the constantly as the latest design downloads feed military in charge. The argument was, “we into their 3D printers to make home remodel- need a mega-firefighting force to fight the ing a continuous function. Nanotechnology Bengston et al. 159 filtration assures their air is pathogen free and from deforestation and forest degradation, and their water safe from toxins. Their children are more emissions from megafires had turned provided with the stimulating environments global forests into a net emitter of carbon diox- that incorporate neuroscience findings, which ide. But starting in the early 2030s, the Global are modified according to the genetics of a Reforestation Initiative began to restore global child to assure they fulfill their potential in a forests as a carbon sink rather than a source. A competitive world. The competition to get into widespread shift to no-till farming along with the best schools is fiercer in 2090 than ever breeding plants with larger root systems has before, because there are only so many jobs in absorbed large amounts of carbon from the atmo- the corporate world, and nobody wants to get sphere and stored it by building topsoil. The mas- off the upward path. There are too many peo- sive growth of seaweed farming has sequestered ple who have been blown off that path and huge amounts of carbon and provided a major fallen into the masses where the chances of new food source for the world’s growing popula- success diminish to near zero. tion. Microbubble generators installed in all the thousands of ships plying the world’s seas every Scenario 3: High Tech day have made the ocean brighter, reflecting Transformation and Cooperation away sunlight and cooling the climate. These efforts not only limited the negative Historians of 2090 note the paradox that the impacts of climate change but also helped fos- century’s greatest threat eventually proved to ter a greater acceptance of our responsibility be a boon. The catastrophic potential of cli- for the welfare of future generations and the mate change both ignited and united global well-being of the larger community of life. efforts on many fronts, from technical innova- Values and goals shifted from growth on the tion to cultural change. The Great Turning, as pattern of the past to a focus on improving all it has come to be called, occurred in the late the aspects of quality of life. This was done by 2020s, propelled by the collapse of the West using resources more efficiently, and restoring Antarctic Ice Sheet, the complete summer wildlands and other natural systems back to melting of Arctic Ice, and the sharp increase in health. At the same time, demographic changes all the impacts of climate change, from heat slowed population growth around the world. waves, droughts, and wildfires to more intense Certainly, the economic transition from goods storms, flooding, and the spread of tropical and services to knowledge and arts also played diseases into temperate zones. a key role in changing values and goals. This By that time, solar, wind, and other renewable was particularly true as artificial intelligence sources of energy were already rapidly displac- systems and robots took over so many of the ing fossil fuels in most countries. However, a tasks that once employed humans. As the physi- burst of innovation over the next decade changed cal, digital, and biological worlds continued to the whole energy picture. Advanced renewables converge, new technologies and platforms such as artificial photosynthesis for hydrogen enabled citizens to engage with governments, production and the breakthrough in small-scale voice their opinions, and coordinate their efforts. fusion made it possible to move away from fossil As a result, we find ourselves today in a world fuels faster than nearly anyone had anticipated. of abundance, efficiency, and rapid ecological But even this rapid transformation of the energy recovery. infrastructure was not enough to head off serious North American forests were in a process of climate impacts. It was massive geoengineering rapid decline before the Great Turning got programs that transformed the role of humans in underway. Warming temperatures, drought, ecological systems over the past half-century. wildfires, invasive species, insects, and dis- Many geoengineering approaches were rejected eases were taking a heavy toll, and public as too dangerous, but others have proven both funding for dealing with these problems was workable and safe. In the past, up to a fifth of declining. But the Global Reforestation greenhouse gas emissions worldwide had come Initiative was a turning point. The global 160 World Futures Review 10(2) commitment to a cooperative effort that has become highly networked, integrating crossed both national and sectoral boundaries activities of citizen-volunteers and public finally allowed North American forest service employees with business entrepreneurs. leaders to make forest health a public priority People who live in the WUI play a large in the minds of urban voters and public offi- role in assuring that people in the city under- cials. Mexico, the United States, and Canada stand and support efforts to improve forest worked together to develop approaches to for- health while moderating climate change. The est protection and renewal customized to local pattern of life in the WUI shifted strikingly climates and ecologies. By the mid-2030s, the during the second half of the century. Rather NAFC was effectively influencing rapid than fixed homes on deeded properties, a change in forest policies throughout North growing number of people came to prefer a America. These policies aimed at restoring for- more nomadic life with small, modular houses ests and taking advantage of the dramatic assembled and disassembled on temporary progress in synthetic biology to implement sites that are leased. Both public and private new biological controls on insect pests and leases are based on stewardship principles that develop fast-growing, climate-hardy variants lead people in the WUI to work collaboratively of different tree species. with the forest services and natural resource The record of NAFC meetings over the companies to assure healthy forests. Forest decades tells a story about changing govern- eco-lodges have become a popular recreation/ ment agencies as clearly as a tree’s growth service activity for urban dwellers of all ages, rings. Each decade marked organizational tran- but especially for young people who go sitions as failing government bureaucracies through rites of passage that initiate them into increasingly gave way to new and more effec- eco-defender clans that help maintain urban tive forms for mobilizing public and private forests as well as wildlands. resources to address major problems. The dev- Many social commentators believe that the astations of megastorms and megafires in the shift in values has been every bit as determina- 2020s focused attention on the inability of cen- tive as technological innovation in moving tral authority in the hierarchies of government North America toward sustainability. With agencies to respond with agility and bring work- material needs satisfied for nearly everyone in able programs to scale. Efforts to decentralize North America, people increasingly seek government authority to provinces and states in opportunities for meaningful activity, friend- the early 2030s brought little improvement. ships, a sense of community, loving relation- Those departments and agencies that developed ships, learning, and experiences of beauty, joy, extensive cross-organizational collaborative and awe. And people increasingly seek these networks proved more effective, and the NAFC things in nature and in urban spaces that har- achieved recognition for helping foster new net- monize human design with nature. As a result, works that linked public and private sector hubs forests are valued in a way that people at the with nonprofit agencies and citizen groups dedi- century’s start could hardly imagine. cated to healthy forests. By the 2040s, these networks were politically effective in mobilizing people across many boundaries. Government Scenario 4: Cultural Transformation agencies effectively evolved into an ecosystem Embraces Indigenous Values model of organization that emphasized diversity When the North American Forest Conclave of of niche interests and speed of propagation for 2090 began, Chief Henriquez Lavarius Dowd new ideas to spread across niches. The thought spoke first: leaders of forest management became viewed as organizational gurus in the 2040s when busi- Elders, guardians and stewards of our forests, I ness schools and consultancies taught the new bring good news! My zeppelin tour has travelled management mantras of cross-organizational across Canada, the United States and Mexico to leadership. By now, governance at every level bring me here. I can report that everywhere I saw Bengston et al. 161

our forests are replenished so they help our land treated as an enemy, something to be prevented and skies improve each year. I can look back at all costs and snuffed out as soon as possible over the decades we have worked to restore our when it did occur. This is what led to the continent’s natural resources, knowing the work enormous buildup of forest fuels that produced of my mother and her father before her is now the terrible conflagrations of the 2020s. That moving rapidly toward fulfillment. I thank you approach seems so unnatural today, but it for all you have done to bring this renewal to our dominated until more people felt themselves a lands, and ask those of you who are younger, part of nature and aspired to “go with the flow” especially, to pledge yourselves to this sacred of natural processes. Then foresters began to trust. We must always ensure that our children treat fire as a natural part of the landscape with know the obligation they hold to the trees and important ecological functions. They learned to the life they sustain. I will step down as Chief live with fire rather than waging war against it. when this conclave ends, full of thanks for what They fostered the development of fire-resilient you all accomplished over the last decade and communities, learned to guide fires more full of confidence that the Great Restoration of skillfully, and gradually eliminated the buildup our forests will endure for generations to come. of fuels that was contributing to more and more megafires. “As some of you know,” Chief Dowd continued, Of course, our forests have always given us fuel to keep us warm and cook our food and today we My grandfather was a forest steward, though that’s continue to draw energy for our communities not what they called them back in the days when and economies from the forest. However, we each nation had its own forest service. He was have learned to do this by harnessing the more there in the early days when the North American fundamental power of plants by learning how Forest Commission formed under the United photosynthesis works at the molecular level. Nations. Early in his career, the views of indigenous Now we draw our energy directly from plants people who saw themselves as an integral part of using quantum biology rather than crude the Circle of Life were still subordinated to the combustion so that instead of adding carbon to views held by so many of the European transplants our air we are adding oxygen while we sequester to our hemisphere who tended to see themselves as carbon into new forms of biomass. As more of outside of or above nature. This led them to treat our people have moved to smaller communities, our natural heritage, including our great forests, as some vertical and inside big cities, they have mere resources to exploit. learned how to make the urban forests as vital to their lives as forests were to the indigenous He was a scientist, a forest ecologist, who peoples of North America and the early European understood that this way of looking at the world settlers. would eventually destroy the ecological foundations on which human societies are built. In my mother’s time, there was still a divide He was also a spiritual man who saw that science between those who lived their lives in cities and and spirituality both climb the same mountain to people who joined the rural renewal movement. the insight that we are all one, all life is After the devastating time when so many people interconnected and interdependent, we are nature, in the rural lands lost hope, turning to drugs that not outside of it, and the damage we do to the blighted their lives as surely as the pests were forests, prairies, deserts and tundra, the waters and destroying the woodlands, people found their the air, are damage to ourselves. He was one of the way. We whose parents and grandparents stayed people who led the Great Integration of science and close to the forests, who cared about forest spirituality that changed how most of us view the health, played a great role in bringing the science world and helped propel the largest peacetime of ecology into the culture of health that leaders mobilization in human history, the successful effort from many different walks of life said we could to stabilize the global climate. achieve. Many of you in this room were part of the change as people in our cities and towns This deep change in viewpoint led to profound reunited human nature with Mother Nature when changes in the practice of forestry. Many people they married the natural and social sciences. today do not even know that wildfire used to be This brought us through a period of great 162 World Futures Review 10(2)

experimentation in which we learned to recreate •• How might each scenario affect current old ways of living with our forests, both in strategies? What new strategies are pos- wildlands and urban areas. Where the old ways sible or necessary? fit with new technologies, social innovations •• How would the scenarios affect your helped guide our people to culturally healthy organization’s products and services? ways of living. These discussions begin the exploration of The visionaries who blazed the trail are still among our elders today, and we must listen to alternative futures, which will be followed by them and heed the wisdom they still offer in so using the scenarios in one or more formal exer- many areas: the importance of every generation cises to increase organizational agility and of young people having formative experiences resilience. Exercises with leaders could include in nature, of always basing policies on both a visioning to facilitate the explicit articulation strong land ethic and the best available science, of preferred futures (e.g., Dator 2009; Lippett of avoiding excessive bureaucracy and developing 1998), and backcasting to bridge the gaps ecological forms of organization highly adapted between the developments in a preferred future to local conditions, of leadership that facilitates and the present (Quist and Vergragt 2006; collective learning, experimenting, and cooperating Vergragt and Quist 2011). Futures wheel exer- across bureaucratic silos and organizations. Above cises may also be used to explore possible all, they call us to tend the flame of the spirit, to never forget that all life is one and that we implications of specific developments in depth ourselves are the forest’s way of restoring and (Bengston 2016). protecting the forest. Hoped for outcomes of these discussions and exercises include:

Using the Scenarios to •• Expanding leaders’ field of view: Enhance Foresight and Build People tend to see only the things they Resilience are trained to see and expect to see. This has been termed the educated incapac- These scenarios will be used to “stretch the ity of experts with respect to perceiving canvas” of possibilities for the future that the future: experts generally “know so NAFC leaders are willing to consider. The ulti- much about what they know that they mate goals for this foresight project are to are the last to see that future differently” enhance strategic foresight capabilities and (Weiner and Brown 2005, 2). Looking build organizational resilience in the three at current developments through several North American forest services. To achieve different images of how the future may these goals, facilitated discussions and interac- unfold allows us to notice more of what tive exercises using the scenarios are planned is occurring. with NAFC leaders. These will include small •• Achieving a strategic perspective: We group discussions focusing first on the positive tend to be preoccupied with daily news elements in the scenarios that reflect each par- and immediate pressing issues. ticipant’s personal sense of the preferred Scenarios allow us to think about the future, and then identifying negative elements big picture of “what’s happening” and and possible positive alternatives. Discussions “where things are going.” will also explore the implications of the sce- •• Identifying fundamental uncertainties: narios for organizational goals, strategies, and Uncertainties are often “swept under the services, as outlined by Lum (2016): rug,” resulting in poor decisions. Scenarios highlight uncertainties so they •• How might each scenario affect your can be acknowledged, studied, and taken organization’s strategic goals? What new into account. aspirational goals are possible under the •• Identifying and evaluating assumptions: scenarios? Underlying assumptions are frequently Bengston et al. 163

taken for granted to the point that they when budgets are examined in the con- become invisible. Scenarios make peo- text of broader possibilities than plans ple more aware of their assumptions by typically encompass. posing situations that call them into question. Concluding Comments •• Creating a basis for strategic conversation and ongoing learning: Peter Schwartz Given the challenges of climate change, social (1996, 221) has observed that “. . . people and economic change, and the many other driv- at resilient companies continually hold ers that will likely shape North American for- strategic conversations about the future.” estry in the future, agility and creativity will be Scenario thinking can spark ongoing con- vital for North American forest management versations that make people more aware agencies. Organizational resilience and the abil- of their underlying assumptions, more ity to adapt rapidly to changing circumstances open to rethinking future possibilities, and are essential for these agencies to fulfill their more focused on long-term goals and mission of maintaining sustainable and healthy strategies. forest ecosystems that provide life-supporting •• Creating a framework for ongoing hori- benefits to people. Leaders and planners will zon scanning: “Signposts” or “early find that the alternative scenarios pose chal- indicators” of movement toward one or lenges to assumptions that served in the past but another scenario can be developed as a may need to be questioned as change emerges. framework for scanning to identify The ability to question assumptions is funda- emerging threats and opportunities. mental to flexible thinking and creative ability •• Clarifying and elevating aspirations: to find options when challenges defy standard The two aspirational scenarios explore approaches. We expect the NAFC and the forest different pathways to positive futures. services of North American governments will These scenarios can be used to help benefit from their planned use of the scenarios leaders develop a clear direction around presented in this article to assure that plans are high aspirations (Bezold 2009). responsive to the challenges and opportunities •• Evaluating initiatives to identify robust ahead. options: Strategies can be tested against a set of scenarios (Marcus 2009). The best strategies should be robust enough Appendix to work in most or all the scenarios, and Drivers for North American Forest should lead to a preferred future. Futures 2018 to 2090 •• Enhancing participation and engagement in strategic planning: Conversations and Drivers of change are forces expected to play a planning exercises developed around powerful part in shaping futures. The drivers vivid scenarios grab people’s interest and described in this appendix will likely shape make it easier to involve more stakehold- how North American forests change over the ers in strategic planning efforts. next seven decades and are, thus, the basis for •• Improving the outcomes of planning: the set of four alternative scenarios presented Futures thinking enables people to work in the article. Complex and dynamic change back to the present from scenarios and always means high and irreducible uncertainty. identify surprising possibilities, while Therefore, the interactions between the drivers planning moves from the past to the over time can be best described through a present and projects expectations. The range of forecasts and scenarios that encom- combination of futures and planning pass the unknowns to illuminate likely, unde- enables strategic thinking that goes sirable, and positive futures. Our four scenarios beyond conventional assumptions and explore the plausible range of variation in the invites a more creative use of resources drivers. 164 World Futures Review 10(2)

The drivers described below were identified for the Forest Futures Project of the Sustainable by the authors as most likely to shape North Forest Management Network, University of American forests and forest management Alberta, Edmonton. https://era.library.ualberta. agencies in the decades ahead. The list of driv- ca/downloads/12579s548. ers—which corresponds to those in Table 1— Kasser, T. 2009. “Shifting Values in Response to Climate Change.” In State of the World is not specific to one country. The drivers are 2009, 122–25. Washington, DC: Worldwatch broadly defined and intended to be applicable Institute. across the continent. Subsequent work will Lee, S., and S. Kant. 2006. “Personal and Group explore country-specific drivers and scenarios Forest Values and Perceptions of Groups’ for forestry and forest management agencies in Forest Values in Northwestern Ontario.” North America. Forestry Chronicle 84 (2): 512–20. Schultz, P. W., and L. Zelezny. 1999. “Values Societal change drivers as Predictors of Environmental Attitudes: Social values.Values and worldviews are Evidence for Consistency across 14 Countries.” important drivers of change in the relationship Journal of Environmental Psychology 19 (3): between people and the rest of nature. 255–65. Environmental and forest values have shifted and evolved in the past, and will very likely Relation to nature. Recent studies have con- continue to change in the future. Across North firmed a growing disconnect with nature and America, European transplants who tended to the replacement of outdoor activities with time view themselves as outside of nature subordi- spent playing video games (“videophilia”) and nated the views of indigenous populations who plugged into the Internet. Implications of a saw themselves as an integral part of nature. growing disconnect with nature include a shift This dominant view contributed to overexploi- in forest values toward indifference or nega- tation and serious environmental damage. But tive values, and decreased political and bud- values that stress human responsibility for the getary support for forestry. Turning to welfare of the community of life of which we indigenous values, environmental ethics, and are a part have been reemerging, driven largely models of sustainable development are a pos- by the science of ecology, the emergence of sible avenue for reversing these trends. sustainability as a guiding concept, and the cultural and psychological role that indigenous References peoples continue to play as a fulcrum for envi- Dockry, M. J., K. Hall, W. Van Lopik, and C. M. ronmental value shifts. How strongly and rap- Caldwell. 2016. “Sustainable Development idly these shifts occur will have a large impact Education, Practice, and Research: An on the future of forests and forestry. Indigenous Model of Sustainable Development at the College of Menominee Nation, Keshena, WI, USA.” Sustainability Science 11 (1): References 127–38. https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/ Bechtel R. B., V. Corral-Verdugo, M. Asai, and pubs/49152. A. G. Riesle. 2006. “A Cross-Cultural Study Kareiva, Peter. 2008. “Ominous Trends in Nature of Environmental Beliefs Structures in USA, Recreation.” Proceedings of the National Japan, Mexico, and Peru.” International Academy of Sciences 105 (8): 2757–58. Journal of Psychology 41:145–51. Louv, Richard. 2008. Last Child in the Woods: Dietz, T. 2015. “Environmental Value.” In Handbook Saving Our Children from Nature-Deficit of Value: Perspectives from Economics, Disorder. Chapel Hill: Algonquin Books. Neuroscience, Philosophy, Psychology and Louv, Richard. 2016. Vitamin N: The Essential Sociology, edited by Tobias Brosch and David Guide to a Nature-Rich Life. Chapel Hill: Sander. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Algonquin Books. Duinker, P. 2008. “Society’s Forest Values.” Report Mayer, F. Stephan, and Cynthia McPherson Frantz. #11 in the Series on “Drivers of Change in 2004. “The Connectedness to Nature Scale: A Canada’s Forests and Forest Sector,” prepared Measure of Individuals’ Feeling in Community Bengston et al. 165

with Nature.” Journal of Environmental this observed warming is the increasing concen- Psychology 24 (4): 503–15. tration in the atmosphere of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases (GHGs) released by Economy. Economics affects forests directly human activities. in terms of wood products and ecosystem ser- Regardless of future GHG emissions, we vices, as well as indirectly when large-scale are already committed to substantial further economic shifts shape land use, redefine the warming due to past emissions and inertia in terms of employment for people, and create the climate system. No matter what actions we many other significant impacts. Over time, our take, they will have little effect on global tem- understanding of the economic value of forests peratures over the generation ahead. But the has expanded from market-valued goods to a effects of what we do will begin to be notice- wide range of nonmarket values, including able by midcentury and can have a decisive life-supporting ecosystem functions and ser- effect by the century’s end. vices. Long-term forecasts of economic growth Forecasts of future climate change are uncer- range from economic collapse to rapid and tain, mainly because what happens depends so sustained growth surpassing historical rates. much on how quickly GHG emissions are This wide range of possibilities is explored in reduced. To take this uncertainty into account, our four scenarios. the IPCC’s recent Fifth Assessment Report con- tains alternative scenarios with different cumu- References lative emission levels. Climate models suggest Diamandis, Peter, and Steven Kotler. 2012. that the lowest emission scenario, which Abundance: The Future Is Better than You requires an epic scale of action globally begin- Think. New York: Free Press. ning immediately, might hold further warming Heinberg, Richard. 2011. The End of Growth: by 2100 to 1.5°C or less. At the other extreme, if Adapting to Our New Economic Reality. the world continues down its present carbon- Gabriola Island, BC: New Society. emitting course, the temperature could rise by Meadows, Dennis, Jorgen Randers, and Donella up to a staggering 4.8°C (8.6 degrees Fahrenheit) Meadows. 2004. Limits to Growth: The by the end of the century. These are average 30-Year Update. White River Junction, VT: Chelsea Green. global temperature estimates. Temperature Randers, Jorgen. 2012. 2052: A Global Forecast changes would vary in different locations. For for the Next Forty Years. White River Junction, example, the temperature rise in Canada at high VT: Chelsea Green. northern latitudes would be considerably higher The Economist Intelligence Unit. 2015. “Long- than the global average. Term Macroeconomic Forecasts: Key Trends to 2050.” http://pages.eiu.com/rs/783-XMC-194/ References images/Long-termMacroeconomicForecasts_ KeyTrends.pdf. Global Change Research Program. 2014. “National Climate Assessment.” Washington, DC. http:// Climate change drivers nca2014.globalchange.gov/report. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2014. Climate change: Temperature increase. Scientific “Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report.” consensus is clear that the Earth’s climate will Contribution of Working Groups I, II and warm over the coming decades. Since the mid- III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the nineteenth century, the planet’s average surface Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. temperature has increased by 0.85°C. Since the [Core Writing Team, R. K. Pachauri and L. A. 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprec- Meyer, eds.]. Geneva: Intergovernmental Panel edented compared with previous decades and on Climate Change. millennia. Climate scientists from around the world, working on the Intergovernmental Panel Climate change: Impacts on forests. on Climate Change (IPCC), have concluded with Uncertainty about the vulnerability of forests 95 percent certainty that the dominant cause of to climate change is substantial. Some research 166 World Futures Review 10(2) has emphasized the adaptive capacity of for- mission of the North American forest services, ests, highlighting factors such as CO fertiliza- crowding out other aspects of forest conservation 2 tion, water-use efficiency, genetic variability, and management. and a variety of other compensatory mecha- A paradigm shift in wildfire management nisms that can help forests deal with heat could avert this mission shift by leading to a stress, drought, and other disturbances. But dramatically different and sustainable approach other research suggests that mortality pro- to fire management. This approach would be cesses associated with growing heat stress and based on an appreciation of the self-regulating drought are already overcoming these buffer- processes in nature and an aspiration to “go ing mechanisms, that significant forest growth with the flow” of those processes. It would declines are already underway in many regions, accept fire as a natural part of the landscape and that the projected large and rapid increase with important ecological functions and in “hotter droughts” is likely to exceed thresh- emphasize learning to live with fire rather than olds of adaptive capacity in many areas, lead- waging a war against it. The central goal of this ing to extensive tree mortality and ecosystem approach would be to create fire resilient com- change. munities, both ecological and human. This emerging fire resilience paradigm is based on the notion of comanagement of risk, with indi- References viduals, communities, governments, and other Allen, C. D., D. D. Breshears, and N. G. McDowell. organizations learning together what they can 2015. “On Underestimation of Global each do to create a sustainable approach to Vulnerability to Tree Mortality and Forest Die- wildland fire management. Off from Hotter Drought in the Anthropocene.” Ecosphere 6 (8): 129. Dale, V. H., L. A. Joyce, S. McNulty, R. P. Neilson, References M. P. Ayres, M. D. Flannigan, P. J. Hanson, Adams, M. A. 2013. “Mega-Fires, Tipping Points et al. 2001. “Climate Change and Forest and Ecosystem Services: Managing Forests Disturbances.” BioScience 51 (9): 723–34. and Woodlands in an Uncertain Future.” Forest Millar, Constance I., and Nathan L. Stephenson. Ecology and Management 294:250–61. 2015. “Temperate Forest Health in an Era of Jensen, S. E., and G. R. McPherson. 2008. Living Emerging Megadisturbance.” Science 349 with Fire: Fire Ecology and Policy for the (6250): 823–26. Twenty-First Century. Berkeley: University of California Press. North American Forest Management Agency Maron, D. F. 2011. “New Report Warns Mega- Drivers Fire Risk Is Global and Growing.” Scientific American, May 12. http://www.scientifi Forest agencies: Wildfire and mission shift. Hotter camerican.com/article.cfm?id=new-report- and dryer climate and decades of fuel accumula- warns-mega-fire-risk-global-warming. tion in many areas have resulted in wildfires North, M. P., S. L. Stephens, B. M. Collins, J. K. growing in size, severity, frequency, and fire- Agee, G. Aplet, J. F. Franklin, and P. Z. Fulé. fighting costs in recent decades. The rise of high- 2015. “Reform Forest Fire Management.” impact megafires has increased fire suppression Science 349 (6254): 1280–81. costs to the point that they now consume 50 per- Olson, R. L., D. N. Bengston, L. A. DeVaney, cent of forest agency budgets in some years. and T. A. C. Thompson. 2015. Wildland fire Entrenched disincentives to change forest fire management futures: insights from a foresight management will make it extremely difficult to panel. Newtown Square, PA: US Department make substantive changes to fire policy and man- of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research agement. Fire management has become a larger Station. https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/ pubs/48581. and larger part of the mission of forest services in North American and globally. If this trend contin- Forest agencies: Organizational form. Since ues unchecked, wildfire suppression and man- the founding of national forest management agement could eventually become the sole agencies in Mexico, the United States, and Bengston et al. 167

Canada, the focus of forest management has Forest agencies: Leadership culture. The orga- broadened significantly from custodial man- nizational and leadership culture of North agement, to an emphasis on the production of America’s forest services has traditionally wood products and other commodities, and emphasized technical leadership, which is most recently to evolving forms of ecosystem appropriate for technical problems where management. Despite these significant changes existing expertise and established procedures in mission focus, a hierarchical organizational and technologies can provide an adequate form and structure has remained largely response. Technical leadership is inadequate unchanged for many decades. Bureaucratic when the nature of problems changes. A shift inertia and restricted budgets could cause for- from technical to adaptive leadership—where est agencies to cling to hierarchical organiza- leaders do not have all the answers and one of tional forms that limit their ability to respond their central tasks is to facilitate people learn- to rapid change in the social and ecological ing together, experimenting, and cooperating environments. Or budgetary crises, rapid to develop and apply successful approaches— change in the external environment, and a con- would represent a significant shift in leader- tinued broadening of agency missions could ship and organizational culture in response to drive innovation toward flatter, more decen- rapid change and the need to adapt quickly to tralized organizational forms that combine address new challenges. This new leadership hierarchy with network structures, including paradigm would include developing “net-centric networks that span internal organizational leaders” able to provide facilitative leadership boundaries and link to other public, private, across organizations and bureaucratic silos. and nonprofit organizations. Advantages of a The roles, methods, and skills needed for this boundary-spanning network structure include kind of boundary-spanning leadership are greater agility in times of rapid change, less quite different from those required for effec- “siloed” operations with a freer flow of com- tive leadership within hierarchical organiza- munication, and greater opportunities for tions. Finally, visionary leadership is another learning and innovation. Finally, an ecological possible basis for a transformative leadership organizational form would be most highly culture. Visionary leadership encourages inno- adapted to local niches and enable the most vation and inspires the impossible through successful innovations to spread rapidly with communication and empowerment. maximum sensitivity to local conditions as well as change across an ecosystem. References Heifetz, R. A., A. Grashow, and M. Linsky. 2009. References The Practice of Adaptive Leadership: Tools Kaufman, H. 1960. The Forest Ranger: A Study and Tactics for Changing your Organization in Administrative Behavior. Baltimore: Johns and the World. Boston: Harvard Business Press. Hopkins University Press. McGuire, J. B., and G. Rhodes. 2009. Transforming Laloux, Frederic. 2014. Reinventing Organizations: Your Leadership Culture. San Francisco: A Guide to Creating Organizations Inspired Jossey-Bass. by the Next Stage of Human Consciousness. Nanus, Burt. 1992. Visionary Leadership. San Brussels, Belgium: Nelson Parker. Francisco: Jossey-Bass. Scharmer, C. O. 2009. 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Lum, R. A. K. 2016. 4 Steps to the Future: A Aspirational Futures in order to identify the poten- Quick and Clean Guide to Creating Foresight. tial for surprising success. IAF celebrated its 40th Honolulu: Vision Foresight Strategy LLC. anniversary in 2016 and will publish scenarios for Marcus, A. 2009. Strategic Foresight: A New Look society in 2057 later this year. at Scenarios. New York: Palgrave Macmillan. Robert Olson is a senior fellow with the Institute Millar, C. I., and N. L. Stephenson. 2015. for Alternative Futures where he served as director “Temperate Forest Health in an Era of Emerging of Research for fifteen years. He was previously a Megadisturbance.” Science 349:823–26. http:// Fellow at the American University’s Center for www.treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/49107. Cooperative Global Development and a project Quist, J., and P. Vergragt. 2006. “Past and director at the Office of Technology Assessment of Future of Backcasting: The Shift to the US Congress. Stakeholder Participation and a Proposal for a Methodological Framework.” Futures Melissa Barros is a policy analyst with Natural 38:1027–45. Resources Canada’s Canadian Forest Service, Schwartz, P. 1996. The Art of the Long View: where she supports the strategic foresight work on Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World. institutional resiliency carried out by the North New York: Currency Doubleday. American Forest Commission. She also supports Slaughter, R. A. 2002. “Futures Studies as an federal-provincial relations, gender- and diversity- Intellectual and Applied Discipline.” In based analysis, and the organization of the upcom- Advancing Futures: Futures Studies in ing Fourth Canada-US Forest Health and Innovation Higher Education, edited by J. Dator, 91–107. Summit in Ottawa, Canada. Westport: Praeger. Vergragt, P. J., and J. Quist. 2011. “Backcasting Richard A. Birdsey is a senior scientist with the for Sustainability: Introduction to the Special Woods Hole Research Center, working on projects Issue.” Technological Forecasting & Social involving “natural climate solutions” that can Change 78:747–55. enhance the role of forests in removing carbon diox- Walker, B., L. Gunderson, A. Kinzig, C. Folke, S. ide from the atmosphere. He worked nearly 40 years Carpenter, and L. Schultz. 2006. “A Handful as a scientist and manager with the US Forest of Heuristics and Some Propositions for Service, first with the Forest Inventory and Analysis Understanding Resilience in Social-Ecological Program and then the Climate Change Research Systems.” Ecology & Society 11:13. http:// Program. He pioneered methods to use forest inven- www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol11/iss1/art13/. tory data to improve monitoring and understanding Weiner, E., and A. Brown. 2005. FutureThink: How of the role of forests in the carbon cycle. to Think Clearly in a Time of Change. Upper Daniel R. Williams is a research social scientist Saddle River: Pearson Prentice Hall. with the US Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station in Fort Collins, Colorado, USA. Author Biographies His research focuses on the human dimensions of landscape change and, in particular, the use of col- David N. Bengston is an environmental futurist and laborative scenario building as a tool for developing social scientist with the US Forest Service, Northern climate change risk assessments and adaptation Research Station, Strategic Foresight Group in St. planning. Paul, Minnesota, USA. He is also an adjunct professor in the Department of Forest Resources and the Juan Carlos Leyva Reyes is an assistant technical Conservation Biology Graduate Program at the manager of the Forest and Soils Inventory, Comisión University of Minnesota. Nacional Forestal (CONAFOR), San Juan de Ocotán, México. Jonathan Peck is the president and senior futurist at the Institute for Alternative Futures (IAF) where Francisco José Zamudio received his PhD with a he works with senior leaders from multiple sectors major in statistics from Iowa State University. He is on vision, scenarios and forecasts. IAF provides a member of the National System of Researchers of foresight for governments and non-profit organiza- Mexico and is emeritus professor at Universidad tions around the world to address change using Autónoma Chapingo, Texcoco, México.