DOCSLIB.ORG

Climate Change Induced Vulnerability to Malaria and Cholera in the Lake Victoria Region

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Climate Change Induced Vulnerability to Malaria and Cholera in the Lake Victoria Region Climate Change Induced Vulnerability to Malaria and Cholera in the Lake Victoria Region A Final Report Submitted to Assessments of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change (AIACC), Project No. AF 91 (Page intentionally left blank) Climate Change Induced Vulnerability to Malaria and Cholera in the Lake Victoria Region A Final Report Submitted to Assessments of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change (AIACC), Project No. AF 91 Submitted by Shem O. Wandiga Kenya National Academy of Sciences, Nairobi, Kenya. 2006 Published by The International START Secretariat 2000 Florida Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20009 USA www.start.org Contents About AIACC…………………………………………………………………….page vi Summary Project information………………………………………………….page vii Executive Summary……………………………………………………………...page ix 1 Introduction..................................................................................................................................................1 2 Characterisation of Current Climate and Scenarios of Future Climate Change ........................2 2.1 GEOGRAPHICAL AND CLIMATIC SETTING...........................................................................................2 2.1.1 Malaria and climate overview ..................................................................................................3 2.1.2 Cholera and climate Overview.................................................................................................4 2.2 ACTIVITIES CONDUCTED .......................................................................................................................5 2.3 DESCRIPTION OF SCIENTIFIC METHODS AND DATA...........................................................................5 2.3.1 Selection of malaria and cholera study sites..........................................................................5 2.3.2 Treatment of climatic and hydrological data.........................................................................8 2.4 MALARIA STUDY ....................................................................................................................................8 2.4.1 General climate and hydrological characteristics of the study sites.................................9 2.4.2 Interlinkages between climatic factors, hydrology, and incidence of malaria .............26 2.4.3 Modeling malaria transmission..............................................................................................31 2.4.4 Conclusion...................................................................................................................................32 2.5 CHOLERA STUDY..................................................................................................................................32 2.5.1 Climate and hydrological characteristics of the study site...............................................32 2.5.2 Regional signals of cholera and El Niño linkages ..............................................................42 2.5.3 Case studies ................................................................................................................................45 2.5.4 Synthesis of biophysical results..............................................................................................49 3 Socio-Economic Futures ..........................................................................................................................51 3.1 MALARIA STUDY ..................................................................................................................................51 3.1.1 Description of scientific and data collection methods.......................................................51 3.1.2 Results ..........................................................................................................................................52 3.2 CHOLERA STUDY..................................................................................................................................54 3.2.1 Description of scientific and data collection methods.......................................................54 3.2.2 Results ..........................................................................................................................................54 4 Impacts and Vulnerability......................................................................................................................56 4.1 MALARIA EPIDEMICS ...........................................................................................................................56 4.1.1 Self medication...........................................................................................................................56 4.1.2 Knowledge of disease ...............................................................................................................57 4.2 CHOLERA EPIDEMICS...........................................................................................................................57 4.3 VULNERABLE COMMUNITIES ..............................................................................................................60 4.4 CONCLUSIONS ......................................................................................................................................61 5 Adaptation ..................................................................................................................................................62 5.1 ACTIVITIES CONDUCTED .....................................................................................................................62 5.2 CONCLUSIONS ......................................................................................................................................62 6 Capacity Building Outcomes and Remaining Needs......................................................................66 7 National Communications, Science-Policy Linkages and Stakeholder Engagement.............67 8 Outputs of the Project ..............................................................................................................................69 8.1 OTHER PUBLICATIONS.........................................................................................................................69 8.2 PRESENTATIONS ...................................................................................................................................69 9 References ...................................................................................................................................................71 List of Tables Table 1: Geographical Positions of Stream flow Stations in Kericho Area ............................................3 Table 2: Linear Regression of Temperature Changes in the Lake Victoria Basin.................................9 Table 3: Direction of Trend in LOWESS Smooth for Temperature........................................................14 Table 4: Direction of Trend in the LOWESS Smooth for Precipitation.................................................20 Table 5: Flood Frequency Data for Sondu River........................................................................................25 Table 6a: Correlations Between Observed Rainfall and Climate Projections: 1961............................26 Table 6b: Correlations between Observed Temperature and Climate Projections: 1978-1990........26 Table 7: Comparison of Ranked Tmax and Tmin for the period (1978-1999) with El Niño and La Niña Years.................................................................................................................................................27 Table 8: Comparison of Ranked Mean Monthly Cumulative Precipitation with El Niño and La Niña Years.................................................................................................................................................28 Table 9: Seasonal trends in streamflow........................................................................................................42 Table 10: Selected Indicators of Vulnerability to Malaria Epidemics....................................................52 Table 11: Type of Health Facility Visited in Malaria Sites.......................................................................53 Table 12: Visits to Medical Facilities in the Last Three Months by Household Members in Malaria Sites.............................................................................................................................................................54 Table 13: Drugs bought for self treatment ..................................................................................................57 Table 14: Sources of Water..............................................................................................................................58 Table 15: Water Treatment Methods ............................................................................................................58 Table 16: Type of Toilet Facilities..................................................................................................................59 Table 17: Type of Health Facility Visited in Cholera Sites.......................................................................59 Table 18: Visits to Medical Facilities in the Last Three Months by Household Members ................60 Table 19: Cholera Control Strategies ............................................................................................................64 List of Figures Figure 1: Location of the malaria study
Load more

Recommended publications
  • LAKE VICTORIA Commercial Agriculture –Especiallycoffee Andcotton–Are Increasingly Important
    © Lonely Planet Publications 240 Lake Victoria LAKE VICTORIA Lake Victoria is Africa’s largest lake, and the second-largest freshwater lake in the world. While the Tanzanian portion sees only a trickle of tourists, the region holds many attractions for those who have a bent for the offbeat and who want to immerse themselves in the rhythms of local life. At the Bujora Cultural Centre near Mwanza, you can learn Sukuma dancing and get acquainted with the culture of Tanzania’s largest tribal group. Further north at Butiama is the Nyerere museum, an essential stop for anyone interested in the great statesman. Musoma and Bukoba – both with a sleepy, waterside charm – are ideal places for getting a taste of lakeshore life. Bukoba is also notable as the heartland of the Haya people, who had one of the most highly developed early societies on the continent. Mwanza, to the southeast, is Tanzania’s second largest city after Dar es Salaam, and an increasingly popular jumping off point for safaris into the Serengeti’s Western Corridor. To the southwest is Rubondo Island National Park for bird-watching and relaxing. The best way to explore the lake region is as part of a larger loop combining Uganda and/or Kenya with Tanzania’s northern circuit via the western Serengeti, although you’ll need time, and a tolerance for rough roads. While most accommodation is no-frills, there are a few idyllic getaways – notably on Rubondo and Lukuba Islands, and near Mwanza. Most locals you’ll meet rely on fishing and small-scale farming for their living, although industry and commercial agriculture – especially coffee and cotton – are increasingly important.
    [Show full text]
  • Managing Risk and Reducing Vulnerability of Agricultural Systems Under Variable and Changing Climate
    Country Report: Tanzania Managing Risk and Reducing Vulnerability of Agricultural Systems under Variable and Changing Climate Soil-Water Management Research Programme Sokoine University of Agriculture September 2007 TABLE OF CONTENTS List of Figures ................................................................................................................ ii List of Tables ................................................................................................................. ii List of Photos ................................................................................................................. ii List of Acronyms ......................................................................................................... iii Executive Summary ....................................................................................................... v Acknowledgement ..................................................................................................... viii 1. Introduction ............................................................................................................ 1 2. Country Background .............................................................................................. 2 2.1 Geographical Location ................................................................................... 2 2.2 Climate ........................................................................................................... 3 2.2.1 Temperature pattern ..............................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • Tanzania MFR Summary Report
    TANZANIA August 20, 2018 Market Fundamentals Summary KEY MESSAGES The objective of this report is to document the basic market context Figure 1. Map of Tanzania for staple food and livestock production and marketing in Tanzania. The information presented is based on desk research, a field assessment using rapid rural appraisal techniques, and a consultation workshop with stakehoders in Tanzania. Findings from this report will inform regular market monitoring and analysis in Tanzania. Maize, rice, sorghum, millet, pulses (beans and peas), cassava and bananas (plantains) are the main staple foods in Tanzania. Maize is the most widely consumed staple in Tanzania and the country imports significant quantities of wheat to meet local demand for wheat flour. Consumption of other staples varies across the country based on local supply and demand dynamics. Cattle, goat and sheep are the major sources of red meat consumed in Tanzania. Tanzania’s cropping calendar follows two distinct seasonal patterns. The Msimu season covers unimodal rainfall areas in the south, west and central parts of the country while the Masika and Vuli seasons Source: FEWS NET (2018). cover bi-modal rainfall areas in the north and eastern parts of the country (Figure 5). Figure 2. Tanzania’s average self sufficiency status for key staple foods (2014/15 – 2017/18) As a member of the East Africa Community (EAC) and the Southern African Development Community (SADC), Tanzania plays an important role in regional staple food trade across East and Southern Africa (Annex III). The country is generally a surplus producer of staple cereals and pulses, and exports significant quantities of these commodities to neighboring countries in East and Southern Africa inlcuding Kenya, Malawi, Zambia, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi and the Democratice Republic of Congo (Figure 2).
    [Show full text]
  • Lake Victoria Experience and Lessons Learned Brief
    Lake Victoria Experience and Lessons Learned Brief Sixtus Kayombo*, Dar es Salaam University, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, [email protected] Sven Erik Jorgensen, Royal Danish University of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Copenhagen, Denmark * Corresponding author 1. Introduction fl ushing time is 123 years. Because of its long retention time, pollutants entering the lake remain in it for a long time. Lake Victoria is the second largest freshwater lake in the world by area (Figure 1), and has the world’s largest freshwater Domestic and industrial wastewater, solid wastes, sediments fi shery, largely based on the introduced of Nile perch, which from soil erosion in the catchment area, agricultural wastes supports an economically and socially important export fi shery and atmospheric deposition are the major nutrient sources for the riparian countries. The lake basin supports about 30 to the lake. Parts of Lake Victoria, especially the deeper million people and is the source of the Nile River. The threats areas, are now considered dead zones, unable to sustain life facing the lake include eutrophication, over-exploitation of due to oxygen defi ciency in the water. The threats facing the fi sheries, introduced exotic species, and climate change. The lake have caused considerable hardship for the populations population in the catchment is growing rapidly, with the lake dependent on it for their livelihoods, and also have reduced itself attracting people because of the economic opportunities the biodiversity of the lake’s fauna, most notably the it offers. The lake’s water residence time is 23 years, while its phytoplankton and fi sh.
    [Show full text]
  • The Integration of Adult Education in Tanzania
    DOCUMENT RESDME ED 068 781 08 AC 012 896 AUTHOR Mhaiki, Paul J.; Hall, Budd L. TITLE The Integration Of Adult Education In Tanzania.. INSTITUTION United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization, Paris (France). International Committee for the Advancement of Adult Education. PUB DATE 12 Jul 72 NOTE 37p., EDRS PRICE MF -$0.65 HC-$3.29 DESCRIPTORS *Adult Education; *Developing Nations; *Development; Educational Development; National Programs IDENTIFIERS *Tanzania ABSTRACT Brief historical background of Tanzania; Links between adult education and development objectives, Links between Adult Education and Formal Education are outlined. Importance of adult education is emphasized. (NF) U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH. - EDUCATION & WELFARE OFFICE CWEDUClaION 'HIS DOCUMENT HASBEEN REPRO- Paris, 12 July 1972 OUCED EXACTLY AS RECEIVED FROM THE PERSON OR ORGfr.NIZATION ORIG- INATING IT. POINTS OF VIEW OR OM- e-4 IONS STATED00 NOT NECESSARILY REPRESENT OFFICIAL OFFICE OF EDU- CATIONPOSITION ORPOLICY. rCX)- oc) ,r) United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization THE INTEGRATION OF ADULT EDUCATION IN TANZANIA by Paul J. Mhaiki and Budd L. Hall Printed with the permission of the Institute of Adult Education, University of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania FILMED FROM BEST AVAILABLECOPY 1 Table of Contents Brief Outline of the Historical Background 1 The Integration of Adult Education in Tanzania 7 IIntroduction 7 II Links between adult education and develop- ment objectives 8 A. National policy documents 8 The Arusha Declaration 8 Education for Self-Reliance 9 Adult Education Year Speech 9 Establishment of the Directorate of Adult Education 10 The Six District Literacy Campaign 1971 10 TANU Party Guidelines 11 The Elimination of Illiteracy by 1975 11 Bo Mobilisation for Education 11 Co Rural Development and the Education of the People 12 Implementation of Ujamaa 12 Rural Training Centres 12 Subjects offered 13 Other Education on Ujamaa 13 Co-operative Education 14 Agricultural Education 15 Health Education .
    [Show full text]
  • Karagwe, Tanzania Security Overview and Travel Assessment
    November 2016 Karagwe, Tanzania Security Overview and Travel Assessment Armada Global, Inc. 305 34th Street Pittsburgh, PA 15201 T: 412-253-2013 E: [email protected] W: www.armadaglobalinc.com The use of Armada Global's intelligence assessments constitutes the waiver from all liability for or by reason of any damage, loss or injury to person and property, even injury resulting in death, which has been or may be sustained in consequence of the recommendations made by Armada Global in its reports. Armada Global provides validated security recommendations but cannot guarantee the health, safety, or security of any individual. Use of Armada's assessments in planning or any other manner constitutes the waiver of all liability of Armada Global, Inc. Table of Contents Executive Summary……………………………………………………………………………...2 April 2016 Fire……..…….………………………………………………………………………3 September 2016 Earthquake……………………………………………………..…………...3-4 Rwanda Border………………………………………………………………………….……….4 Recommendations…………………………………………………………………...................4-6 Armada Global, Inc. 1 Executive Summary In light of the 10 September earthquake in Kagera Region, Tanzania, and a previous devastating fire in Karagwe District in late April 2016, Amizade requested Armada Global’s assistance in conducting an updated threat assessment of Karagwe, Tanzania. While devastation from these disasters was documented in local reporting, Armada was only able to find cursory indicators of underlying sentiments that could lead to civil unrest or violence in the area. These indicators include Kagera government officials urging locals to remain calm and to not blame leaders for a perceived slow rebuilding process, arrests of government officials for trying to steal charitable donations in the aftermath of the earthquake, and concerns of a potential famine in the area.
    [Show full text]
  • Bukoba Rural District
    DEVELOPMENT FOR RESULTS-BASED MONITORING, EVALUATION AND AUDITING PROJECT MAPPING RURAL ICT ADOPTION, KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT, ECOSYSTEMS AND LIVELIHOODS IN THE CONTEXT OF MDG ACCELERATION FRAMEWORK (MAF) PILOT PROJECTS BUKOBA RURAL DISTRICT DRAFT CONSOLIDATED REPORT (Summary of the 4 Reports)1 Submitted by Economic and Social Research Foundation 51 Uporoto Street (Off, Ali Hassan Mwinyi Rd.) Ursino Estate P.O. Box 31226 Dar-es-Salaam Tel +255 22 2760260, Fax +255 22 2760062 Web: www.esrftz.org September 2013 1Details of the findings and the Proposed Strategic Interventions of the 4 studies can be obtained from the respective Volumes TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS ........................................................................................................................................ II 1.0 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................. 1 1.1 BACKGROUND INFORMATION .......................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 PROBLEM STATEMENT AND PROJECT JUSTIFICATION............................................................................................. 3 1.3 OBJECTIVES AND JUSTIFICATION OF THE STUDY.................................................................................................... 3 2.0 SITUATION ANALYSIS ...................................................................................................................... 4 2.1 PROJECT
    [Show full text]
  • Lake Victoria City Development Strategies for Improved Environment and Poverty Reduction
    Lake Victoria City Development Strategies for Improved Environment and Poverty Reduction Bukoba Town Draft Profile 1.0 PREAMBLE 2.0 BACK GROUND INFORMATION 2.1 Location Bukoba town lies between latitudes 10 6’ 0” to 1o ‘8’ 42” south of the equator and longitudes 31o 16’ 12’ to 31o 18’ 54” East of the Greenwich. It is located on the North western part of Tanzania on the western shores of Lake Victoria. It rises at an altitude of 1100 meters above sea level with an average temperature of 23oC. It is bordered by Lake Victoria on the east and Bukoba rural district to the North West and South. The district receives bimodal rainfall between September to December and March to June with an annual average of 1952 mm which enabling the area to remain ever green throughout the year. 2.2 Area Bukoba urban has an area of 80 square kilometers out of which 30 sq. km is the Urban Area proper (about 37.5%) and the rest 50 square kilometers covers surrounding urban villages the area commonly referred to as “Green belt”. These Urban Villages are within the township boundaries with a substantial area of coverage of about 62.5%. 2.3 TOPOGRAPHY Topographically the district consists of a plateau. Bukoba has a series of East facing sand stone escarpments which falls steeply towards Lake Victoria. At places a narrow lake plane occurs between the lofty escarpment and the lake. The dip of escarpment slopes gently towards Kanoni River. Kanoni meanders in its wide flood plain. The flood plain consists of swamps and oxbow lakes.
    [Show full text]
  • Political Generations in Bukoba : 1890-1939
    (. POLITICAL GENERATIONS IN BUKOBA : 1890-1939. When .I first began my researches into Tang anyika colonial history, my aims were rather theoretical - namely, to camp are certain British id.eas of ":indirect rule" to the actual development of indigenous political and social dtructures under European domination. The following account of the Bukoba district during the 11 classical" period of colonialism began as a case study in one such development . In assembling my materials , however, I have found it diffic­ ult to relate the narrative of events to the original frame of reference . In fact, at my present stage of work, it remains very much a narrative and hardly at all an analystic exercise. What theoretical framework I have bee·n able to salvage is, as the title of my paper suggests, largely evolutionary. The "political generations" which I wish to distinguish in the various stage s of colonial rule ar~ those Africans who were able to mediate spontaneously between the machinery of alien government and the outlook of the indigenous popu" lation. At the beginning of German rule in Bukoba, there was no such · agency, and dealings between Europeans and Africans were carried out through the medium of intrigue and violenao. Ultimately, the Germans were able to come to an unde rstanding with both the .local African chiefs and the Catholic missiona aries both of whom performed the actual task of stimulating modernization in the district, Under British rule, despite elaborate professions to the contrary, chiefs were deprived of the substance of their traditional power and coopted into the colonial bureau­ cracy, Even missionaries, in their key educational function, were absorbed into the same e stablishment.
    [Show full text]
  • Bahaya People Bukoba, Tanzania
    Bahaya People Bukoba, Tanzania Site Specifics Our Partnership Altitude: 3,760 ft. Teams live and work with the Bahaya Airport: Entebbe Int’l, Uganda (EBB) people in Bukoba, a compact town Water: Bottled in northwest Tanzania that rests Food: Rice, beans, chicken, ugali, alongside Lake Victoria. Mostly sambusas, samosas and fish farmers of corn, coffee, fruits and Lodging: Communal lodging vegetables, the Bahaya people speak Kihaya, Swahili and English. Language: Swahili, Kihaya, English A Brief History of the Partnership Xperitas’ host is Mr. Smart Baitani, the founder and executive director of COSAD, an organization whose mission is to bring economic stability to the region through microloans for local businesses. Community Projects Xperitas teams may work on a variety of COSAD’s community development projects, including “One woman, one goat.” Collaborating on community efforts like laying bricks, building What will we do? goat pens and water Each day, the team and the community retention systems will meet to plan the day’s schedule. Some of these activities may include: Connecting with the day-to-day lifestyle in villages around Lake Victoria Building relationships by sharing stories, cooking or playing games with host families Sharing a meal of vegetable masala, Listening to the samosas, ugali, local choir Imuka sambusas or chicken Singers practice for and mushrooms their concerts Reflecting on shared experiences with the team and developing a greater knowledge of the community Extend your trip See elephants, giraffes and zebras in their natural habitat by going on a safari in Mwanza. Feeling adventurous? Hike Mt. Kilimanjaro, A nonprofit educational organization dedicated where you’ll pass through five ecosystems on to promoting global citizenship through your way to the 19,341 ft.
    [Show full text]
  • The Situation Information Bulletin Tanzania: Earthquake
    Information bulletin Tanzania: Earthquake Date of issue: 14 September 2016 Date of disaster: 11 September 2016 Point of contact: Andreas Sandin, Operations Coordinator, IFRC Eastern Africa and Indian Ocean Islands Cluster Office Host National Society: Tanzania Red Cross Society Number of people affected: 10,620 This bulletin is being issued for information only and reflects the current situation and details available at this time. The situation On 11 September 2016, a 5.7 magnitude earthquake hit northwest Tanzania, about 44 km from Bukoba town, on the western shore of Lake Victoria. Based on initial reports, the quake struck at around 15:27 local time (12:27 GMT) and was shallow, occurring at a depth of 10km. The tremor was felt in parts of Uganda, and as far as Rwanda and western parts of Kenya bordering Lake Victoria. A rapid assessment report from the Kagera Red Cross branch of Tanzania Red Cross Society (TRCS) in Bukoba, indicated that 20 people died (13 adults and 7 children) and 269 people were recorded injured. A total of 270 houses were destroyed, 905 houses have damaged walls, and 1,124 houses have deep cracks. These figures pertain to the affected areas in Bukoba Earthquake affected area of Bukoba, northwest Tanzania township as the local Red Cross branch is still collecting Source: USGS data from Bukoba rural district. Immediate needs of the affected population include emergency shelter, medical supplies, non-food relief items, food and psycho-social support. The TRCS local branch also needs support in terms of logistics for assessments, non-food relief distributions, vehicles for transport and communications.
    [Show full text]
  • Tanzania Country Profile Report
    i | P a g e TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS ........................................................................................................ i LIST OF TABLES ................................................................................................................. v LIST OF FIGURES .............................................................................................................. vi COUNTRY FACT SHEET ................................................................................................... vii LIST OF ACRONYMS ....................................................................................................... viii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...................................................................................................... x 1. INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND ........................................................................ 1 1.1. Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 1 1.2. Background ..................................................................................................................................... 1 1.3. Objectives of the Report ............................................................................................................ 2 1.4. Methodology ................................................................................................................................... 2 1.5. Structure of the Report ..............................................................................................................
    [Show full text]