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The Longest Conflict

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The Longest Conflict The Longest Conflict: Australia’s Climate Security Challenge The Longest Conflict: Australia’s Climate Security Challenge CONTENTS FOREWORD ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 7 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 9 Report overview ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 9 Entering the longest conflict ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 10 1. EMERGING CLIMATE CHANGE SECURITY THREATS ............................................................................................................................................... 13 The longer term climate change threats to human security ............................................................................................................................. 13 Australia’s external dilemma - Asia is a frontline for climate change crises ............................................................................................. 15 The Perfect Storm ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 17 Climate change as a threat multiplier .......................................................................................................................................................................... 18 Problems without borders ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 19 2. THE HOMEFRONT: AUSTRALIA’S SECURITY CHALLENGE .................................................................................................................................... 21 Our history of climate change .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 21 The time for strategic planning is now ........................................................................................................................................................................ 22 The impact on the ADF: preparing for trouble on multiple fronts ................................................................................................................ 23 3. THE CLIMATE SECURITY EXPERIENCE OF OUR ALLIES ....................................................................................................................................... 25 The United States .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 25 Mainstreaming climate change as a security concern ............................................................................................................................................................ 25 Practical measures to build resilience .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 27 The United Kingdom ............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 27 Assuming international leadership on the climate security challenge .......................................................................................................................... 27 Security is part of a national framework for action .................................................................................................................................................................. 28 Lessons for Australia from the US and UK experience ....................................................................................................................................... 29 4. AUSTRALIA’S SECURITY RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE: PARTS WITHOUT A WHOLE .................................................................... 31 Insight from within the Department of Defence ..................................................................................................................................................... 31 Limited efforts to address elements of climate security .................................................................................................................................. 32 Reluctance remains ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 34 5. RECOMMENDATIONS: PREPARING FOR THE LONGEST CONFLICT ................................................................................................................. 35 Incorporate Australia’s climate security challenge into the 2015 Defence White Paper ................................................................... 35 Create a Climate Security Strategy ............................................................................................................................................................................. 36 Develop the effectiveness of the ADF to perform in a climate- changed operating environment ................................................ 37 Enhance interoperability and coordination with regional allies .................................................................................................................... 40 Establish a Climate Change Working Group ............................................................................................................................................................. 42 Conclusion: Towards a whole of government approach to climate change .............................................................................................. 43 REFERENCES ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 45 Front cover image: Australian Defence Force Emergency Support Force assists residents during the South-East Queensland Floods in 2012, image provided courtesy of Department of Defence Page 2 The Longest Conflict: Australia’s Climate Security Challenge BOXES, FIGURE & TABLES BOXES Box 1: Our Recommendations……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..12 Box 2: A ‘four degree world’? Temperature estimates to end of the century………………………………………………………………………………………………...14 Box 3: A climate-changed Asia: how the experts see it………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..15 Box 4: Climate change, displacement and the effect on national stability……………………………………………………………………………………………………..20 Box 5: Thinking ahead: energy scarcity and the ADF…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..23 Box 6: Other notable climate security responses…………………………………………………………………………………………….…………………………………………………..30 FIGURE Figure 1: Coastal vulnerability in South-East Asia…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….…………………….17 TABLES Table 1: National climate security actions – How does Australia compare?………………………………………………………………………………………………………11 Table 2: The effectiveness of the ADF response to climate change………………………………………………………………………………………………………..………39 ACRONYMS ADF Australian Defence Force ADB Asia Development Bank DoD Department of Defence, Australia DCP Defence Cooperation Programme IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change MoD Ministry of Defence, UK NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organisation ONA Office of National Assessment, Australia QDR Quadrennial Defense Review, US QDDR Quadrennial Diplomacy and Development Review, US RIMPAC Rim of the Pacific Exercises USDoD Department of Defense, US Page 3 The Longest Conflict: Australia’s Climate Security Challenge Authors Robert Sturrock Rob is a Policy Analyst at CPD and has professional experience across public policy, consultancy and law. Prior to joining CPD Rob was an official at the Australian Trade Commission in the International Operations division. Rob has worked as a Senior Policy Advisor in KPMG’s Government Division, and as a Solicitor at Minter Ellison Lawyers. He holds a Masters in International Relations from the London School of Economics, as well as an Arts/Law degree from Sydney University. Dr. Peter Ferguson Peter was a Research Associate in CPD’s Sustainable Economy Program and is now a lecturer in politics and policy at Deakin University’s School for Humanities and Social Sciences. His research focuses on the political
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