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Economic Bulletin No. 1 / 2021

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Economic Bulletin No. 1 / 2021 Economic Bulletin 1 2021 January 2021 January Economic Bulletin Number 1 / 2021 January Other economic publications of the Bank of Italy: Annual Report Account of the main developments in the Italian and world economy during the year Financial Stability Report Six-monthly analysis of the state of the Italian financial system Economie Regionali A series of reports on the regional economies Temi di Discussione (Working Papers) A series of empirical and theoretical papers Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) Miscellaneous studies on issues of special relevance to the Bank of Italy Newsletter News on recent research work and conferences Quaderni di Storia Economica (Economic History Working Papers) A series of papers on Italian economic history These publications are available online at www.bancaditalia.it. Printed copies can be requested from the Paolo Baffi Library: richieste.pubblicazioni@bancaditalia.it. © Banca d’Italia, 2021 For the paper-based version: registration with the Court of Rome No. 290, 14 October 1983 For the electronic version: registration with the Court of Rome No. 9/2008, 21 January 2008 Director Eugenio Gaiotti Editorial committee Alessio Anzuini and Martina Cecioni (coordinators), Simone Auer, Cristina Conflitti, Enrica Di Stefano, Santiago Pereda Fernandez, Pasquale Recchia, Maria Lisa Rodano, Andrea Silvestrini, Enrico Tosti Daniela Falcone, Fabrizio Martello, Teresa Messina (editorial assistants for the Italian version) Giuseppe Casubolo and Roberto Marano (charts and figures) Boxes: Valentina Aprigliano, Simone Auer, Vincenzo Cuciniello, Silvia Delrio, Maria Lisa Rodano, Concetta Rondinelli, Filippo Vergara Caffarelli, Francesca Zanichelli, Stefania Villa The English edition is translated from the Italian by the Language Services Division of the Secretariat to the Governing Board Directorate Address Via Nazionale 91 – 00184 Rome – Italy Telephone +39 06 47921 Website http://www.bancaditalia.it All rights reserved. Reproduction for scholarly and non-commercial use permitted on condition that the source is cited ISSN 0393-7704 (print) ISSN 2280-7640 (online) Based on data available on 8 January 2021, unless otherwise indicated Designed and printed by the Printing and Publishing Division of the Bank of Italy CONTENTS OVERVIEW 5 1 THE WORLD ECONOMY 7 1.1 The world economy 7 1.2 The euro area 12 1.3 Global financial markets 17 2 THE ITALIAN ECONOMY 19 2.1 Cyclical developments 19 2.2 Firms 22 2.3 Households 25 2.4 Foreign trade and the balance of payments 29 2.5 The labour market 33 2.6 Price developments 36 2.7 Banks 38 2.8 The financial markets 44 2.9 The public finances 46 2.10 Projections 52 SELECTED STATISTICS 59 LIST OF BOXES The agreement on trade and cooperation between the European Union and the United Kingdom 9 The monetary policy measures adopted by the ECB in December 2020 14 Economic activity in the fourth quarter of 2020 20 Italian firms’ assessments according to the Survey on Inflation and Growth Expectations 23 Italian households during the epidemic: the Bank of Italy’s survey 26 Credit supply and demand 40 Measures to support firms and workers affected by the new restrictions to combat the pandemic 46 The assumptions underlying the macroeconomic scenario 53 SYMBOLS AND CONVENTIONS Unless otherwise specified, Bank of Italy calculations; for Bank of Italy data, the source is omitted. In the tables: – the phenomenon does not exist; .... the phenomenon exists but its value is not known; .. the value is nil or less than half of the final digit shown; :: not statistically significant; () provisional. In the figures with different right- and left-hand scales, the right-hand scale is identified in the notes. OVERVIEW The new pandemic The resurgence of2021. According to the households interviewed by wave is impacting coronavirus cases in the the Bank of Italy, spending on services continues the recovery, autumn led to a slowdown to be held back by fears of infection more than by but vaccinations in global economic activity the restrictive measures. have begun at the end of 2020, especially in the advanced … but exports and Italian exports of goods and countries. The start of the vaccination campaigns capital inflows have services recovered is affecting the medium-term prospects resumed … significantly in the third favourably, but the timing and intensity of the quarter of 2020, far more recovery remain uncertain so than world trade; this continued in the autumn, but less markedly. Capital flows and purchases of The ECB Governing In the euro area, the effects Italian public sector securities by non-residents Council will continue of the pandemic on started up again. The Bank of Italy’s TARGET2 to support economic activity and on balance improved. Thanks to the protracted the economy prices are set to last longer current account surplus, Italy’s net international than was previously investment position turned positive after more assumed. The ECB Governing Council has than thirty years of negative balances. expanded and prolonged monetary stimulus to ensure favourable lending conditions for all The recovery With the reopening of the sectors for as long as necessary to guarantee full in employment activities suspended during support to the economy and to inflation. It stands weakens after the first wave of the ready to recalibrate its instruments once again if the summer pandemic, in the third necessary. quarter the number of hours worked rose sharply and recourse to wage In Italy, a marked In Italy, the higher than supplementation schemes declined. The number of recovery in GDP expected growth in the third payroll employment positions also returned to is followed by a drop quarter demonstrated the growth. However, the latest available data at the end of 2020 ... economy’s strong capacity to indicate another upturn in the use of the wage recover. As in the other supplementation scheme (CIG), albeit much less euro-area countries, the second pandemic wave so than during the first wave. In November, the nevertheless caused a further decrease in GDP in increase in the number of new jobs essentially the fourth quarter. Based on the available came to a halt, highlighting a gap compared with indicators, this decline can currently be estimated the same period of the previous year, particularly at around -3.5 per cent, although there is a great for young people and women. deal of uncertainty over this figure. Weak demand The change in consumer ... mainly The downturn waskeeps prices prices remained negative, in services … considerable in services and down reflecting price developments marginal in manufacturing. in the service sectors hit Our surveys reveal that firms’ assessments have hardest by the crisis, whose growth continues to be become less favourable, but are still far from the affected by the weakness of demand. The inflation pessimism registered in the first half of 2020. expectations of analysts and firms continue to Firms intend to step up their investment plans for point to very low rates over the next twelve months. BANCA D’ITALIA Economic Bulletin No. 1 / 2021 5 There is greater The optimism of financial funds available under NGEU, continues; and optimism on the market operators in Italy that monetary policy ensures that financial financial markets and abroad has been conditions remain favourable over the entire boosted by the forecasting horizon, as envisaged by the ECB announcement of the rollout of vaccines, further Governing Council. monetary policy and fiscal support, and the end of the uncertainty surrounding the presidential GDP is expected Based on these assumptions, elections in the United States. The yield spread to return to robust it is projected that GDP between Italian and German ten-year government growth from the spring will return to significant bonds remains at lower levels than those observed onwards … growth starting in the before the healthcare crisis. Financial markets spring, estimated at 3.5 per nevertheless remain sensitive to the course of the cent on average this year, 3.8 per cent in 2022, pandemic. and 2.3 per cent in 2023, when output would be back to pre-pandemic levels. Investment is Lending continues Banks continued to meet projected to pick up at a rapid pace, benefiting to grow demand for funds from from the stimulus measures, with exports staging a at a sustained pace firms. Supply conditions significant recovery; consumption is instead remained relaxed overall, projected to recover more gradually, with an only thanks to the continuing support of monetary partial inversion of the large increase in the policy and public guarantees. Banks’ bond funding propensity to save observed since the outbreak of costs declined further, and rates on lending to the pandemic. Inflation is projected to remain low firms and households remained low. throughout the year and to then rise only gradually in the two years 2022-23. The Government In response to the resurgence has adopted further of the health crisis, the … after falling The estimate for growth support measures Government enacted at the end of 2020 … this year is heavily additional measures to dependent on the negative support households and firms in the last quarter of carryover from the expected decline in GDP in 2020. Compared with the scenario at unchanged the latter part of 2020. Compared with the policies, the budget envisages an increase in net projections in July’s Economic Bulletin, the pace borrowing both this year and the next. Further of activity is instead projected to be more robust
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