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Financial Crisis Hits the Real Economy

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Financial Crisis Hits the Real Economy Financial Crisis Hits the Real Economy Chart 17 Financial Crisis Impairs Corporate Sector Financing Internal and External Corporate Finance Conditions Moving four-quarter totals in EUR billion % 90 50 Marked Economic Downturn in Austria 80 45 In the first half of 2009, the impact of 70 40 35 the international economic crisis on 60 Austria’s economy gathered momen- 30 50 tum. Real GDP went down in the first 25 40 quarter of 2009 and is likely to decline 20 30 in the second quarter as well. As the 15 year progresses, the tax reform and 20 economic stimulus packages should 10 dampen the economic slump. 10 5 The gloomy economic outlook also 0 0 Q1 02 Q1 03 Q1 04 Q1 05 Q1 06 Q1 07 Q1 08 dampened capital formation. New or- Internal finance – depreciation ders in manufacturing in Austria were Internal finance – changes in net worth External finance on the decline since fall 2008, capacity Share of external finance (right-hand scale) utilization shrank and investment Source: OeNB. dropped sharply. Finally, the growth rate of corpo- significant listings have been made on rate profits also weakened considerably. Wiener Börse since mid-2008. New In the fourth quarter of 2008, the gross issues came to 0.4% of outstanding operating surplus (including mixed in- amounts in the first quarter of 2009. come of the self-employed) had still In addition to investors’ more pro- been 4.6% above the same value of the nounced risk aversion, these figures previous year. stem from the sharp fall in equity prices and the resulting marked deterioration External Financing Share Decreases of the conditions for raising capital on In 2008, external financing contracted the stock exchange. By November by roughly one-third to EUR 22.4 bil- 2008, the earnings yield – the inverse lion compared to 2007, whereas inter- of the price-to-earnings ratio – ex- nal financing in the corporate sector panded to 17%, up from 6.5% recorded rose by 8% to EUR 39 billion. The in mid-2007 when the financial turmoil share of external financing in corporate began. Afterwards, tensions eased finance, which had risen from less than again, bringing the earnings yield back 20% in the first quarter of 2005 to just down to 11.1% at the end of April under 50% in the first quarter of 2008, 2009. fell back to 36% in 2008. In the second half of 2008, corpo- rations raised approximately 29% of Financial Crisis Causes Equity their external financing in the form of Financing to Grind to a Halt equity (including over-the-counter The decline in external financing is equities) – noticeably less than in the traceable mainly to the drop in capital preceding years (average for 2003 raised on the stock exchange. Financ- through 2007: 48%). The proportion ing via the stock exchange came to a of shares in total liabilities contracted standstill as a result of the crisis. No from 52% to 44% in 2008, a develop- 24 FINANCIAL STABILITY REPORT 17 – JuNE 2009 Financial Crisis Hits the Real Economy ment due to both the reduced amount Bank Lending Has Been Augmenting of capital raised and to the lower mar- Bank loans gained importance among ket value of quoted shares. corporate external financing options in Chart 18 2008, accounting for 73% of external finance in the fourth quarter of 2008 Key Elements of External Corporate and recording an annual growth rate of Finance 7% in March 2009. For the first time Annual change in % since Stage Three of Economic and 40 Monetary Union began in 1999, the 35 growth rate of banks’ lending to enter- 30 prises was higher in Austria than in the 25 euro area as a whole, where bank lend- ing growth diminished far more. How- 20 ever, in the first three months of 2009, 15 bank lending growth weakened to EUR 10 0.6 billion from EUR 2.3 billion in the 5 fourth quarter of 2008. Bank lending growth partly offset 0 the near-paralysis of capital market –5 financing. Moreover, it is conceivable –10 that companies resorted to bank loans 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 to meet their higher liquidity needs, a Loans Bonds Quoted shares conclusion that is corroborated by the Source: OeNB. circumstance that the rate of increase in enterprises’ bank deposits plum- Bond Financing Continues to Expand meted from fall 2008 onward. So far, corporate debt financing has weakened less than corporate equity financing. Bond financing continued to Chart 19 increase, albeit with less momentum. Credit Line Utilization as Captured by The annual growth rate of corporate the Central Credit Register bonds according to the OeNB’s securi- % ties issues statistics ran to 9.3% in 85 March 2009 and has remained above 84 the rate for the euro area. Enterprises 83 in the quasi-public sector accounted for 82 the lion’s share of bonds issued. The financial crisis has caused the 81 terms and conditions for bond issues to 80 worsen substantially. In fall 2008, cor- 79 porate bond yields on the euro bond 78 market rose markedly in the wake of heightened uncertainty and higher risk 77 aversion and later stabilized at a high 76 level. Yields went up above all for 75 higher-risk bonds, and in April 2009, Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Juni July Aug. Sep. Okt.Nov.Dez. Jan. Feb. Mar. yields on BBB-rated bonds came in at 2008 2009 about 8.5%. Source: OeNB. FINANCIAL STABILITY REPORT 17 – JuNE 2009 25 Financial Crisis Hits the Real Economy Possibly, the current bank lending cuts by the ECB. In March 2009, inter- expansion partly reflects past borrow- est on new loans of up to EUR 1 mil- ing decisions of companies and their lion to nonfinancial corporations came stepped-up access to credit lines that to 3.4%, on loans of over EUR 1 mil- were extended some time ago. Data are lion to 2.8%, some 2½ percentage available only for major loans of above points below the October 2008 level in EUR 350,000 and show that compa- both cases. nies’ usage of available credit lines in- While banks may have cut interest creased more than banks’ extension of rates on loans, they also tightened lend- new credit lines. As a result, the ratio ing standards. According to the Aus- of utilization of credit lines and the ex- trian results of the euro area bank lend- tension of new credit lines advanced ing survey, the financial crisis has been continuously throughout the year 2008 hampering refinancing conditions and from about 79% to just under 84%. In lending policies, especially in the cor- the first quarter of 2009, utilization of porate customer segment, for almost credit lines continued to edge upward two years. Moreover, the worsening of (chart 19). the economic outlook and more selec- Since November 2008, interest on tive credit ratings have contributed to a loans has decreased considerably as a restrictive lending policy. Since the result of the massive key interest rate third quarter of 2007, credit standards for corporate clients have become con- Chart 20 tinuously more restrictive, and condi- Corporate Financing Conditions tions and terms – interest margins as % well as collateral requirements, the size 18 and maturity of loans granted, the cov- 16 enants as well as noninterest rate charges – have been tightened. 14 12 Deterioration of Creditworthiness 10 Increasing use of debt financing raised 8 the ratio of companies’ debt to their gross operating surplus from 187% in 6 the first quarter of 2007 to 205% in 4 the fourth quarter of 2008. Debt in 2 relation to GDP also rose from 77% in 0 the first quarter of 2007 to 84% in 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 the fourth quarter of 2008. However, Loans (interest rate for new euro loans of more than EUR 1 million) Austrian company debt is still far lower Bonds (yields on BBB-rated corporate bonds in the euro than the euro area average, and it area) Shares (earnings yield on the Austrian stock market) started to expand later than in the euro Source: OeNB, Thomson Reuters, Wiener Börse AG. area, where the increase already began in 2005. 26 FINANCIAL STABILITY REPORT 17 – JuNE 2009 Financial Crisis Hits the Real Economy Chart 21 Corporate Sector Debt1 Austria Euro area % % % % 240 100 240 100 230 95 230 95 220 90 220 90 210 85 210 85 200 80 200 80 190 75 190 75 180 70 180 70 170 65 170 65 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 % of gross operating surplus2 (left-hand scale) % of GDP (right-hand scale) Source: ECB, OeNB. 1 Short-term and long-term loans, short-term and long-term debt securities. 2 Including mixed income of the self-employed. Insolvency statistics clearly signal that in 2008 the bulk of insolvencies the deterioration of corporate credit- still resulted from bankrupt companies’ worthiness. Insolvency numbers and internal problems. But a noticeably liabilities have been going up since the larger number of insolvencies than in second quarter of 2008. An analysis of previous years was triggered mainly by the Austrian credit monitoring agency external causes, such as changed mar- Kreditschutzverband von 1870 shows ket conditions, insolvencies of custom- ers or delivery failures of suppliers. Chart 22 Their share went up from 10% to 16%. Development of Corporate Insolvencies The share of insolvencies traceable to a Moving four-quarter averages, annualized in % shortfall of capital was of the same 3.4 0.80 order and remained unchanged in 3.3 0.75 2008.
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