Adam Smith's Invisible/Visible Hand/Chain/Chaos
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The Allais Paradox: What It Became, What It Really Was, What It Now Suggests to Us
Economics and Philosophy (2019), 35, 423–459 doi:10.1017/S0266267118000469 ARTICLE The Allais paradox: what it became, what it really was, what it now suggests to us Philippe Mongin GREGHEC, 1 rue de la Libération, F-78350 Jouy-en-Josas, France Email: [email protected] (Received 11 June 2018; revised 24 August 2018; accepted 27 August 2018; first published online 30 January 2019) Abstract Whereas many others have scrutinized the Allais paradox from a theoretical angle, we study the paradox from an historical perspective and link our findings to a suggestion as to how decision theory could make use of it today. We emphasize that Allais proposed the paradox as anormativeargument, concerned with ‘the rational man’ and not the ‘real man’,touse his words. Moreover, and more subtly, we argue that Allais had an unusual sense of the normative, being concerned not so much with the rationality of choices as with the rationality of the agent as a person. These two claims are buttressed by a detailed investigation – the first of its kind – of the 1952 Paris conference on risk, which set the context for the invention of the paradox, and a detailed reconstruction – also the first of its kind – of Allais’s specific normative argument from his numerous but allusive writings. The paper contrasts these interpretations of what the paradox historically represented, with how it generally came to function within decision theory from the late 1970s onwards: that is, as an empirical refutation of the expected utility hypothesis, and more specifically of the condition of von Neumann–Morgenstern independence that underlies that hypothesis. -
Maurice Allais on Equilibrium and Capital in Some of His 1940S Writings
QUADERNI DEL DIPARTIMENTO DI ECONOMIA POLITICA E STATISTICA Ariel Dvoskin Maurice Allais on Equilibrium and Capital in some of his 1940s Writings n. 690 – Dicembre 2013 Abstract - The article discusses M. Allais’ contributions on equilibrium and capital during the 1940s. While in his Traité (1943) Allais formalizes for the first time an intertemporal general equilibrium (IGE) in a finite- horizon economy, he subsequently abandons this notion, and in the Économie (1947) resumes, instead, the more traditional method based on the notion of stationary equilibrium. The article argues: i) that Allais’ reasons to leave the IGE framework behind, of which the most important turn round his misgivings about the sufficiently correct foresight entailed by that notion, and that reflect the impossibility to establish a correspondence between observations and theory by means of the IGE method, are well-justified; ii) that his shift to the method based on the notion of stationary equilibrium to connect the results of neoclassical theory with observations cannot be accepted, since a notion of stationary equilibrium that would make this correspondence possible must face an insurmountable difficulty in the treatment of the factor capital. Keywords: Allais, Intertemporal Equilibrium, Stationary Equilibrium, Perfect Foresight, Centre of Gravitation JelClassification: B21-B30- B41-D50-D24 The author is grateful to professors F. Petri, A. Béraud and S. Fratini for their very helpful comments to previous drafts of this article. Thanks are also due to N. Semboloni of the library of the Faculty of Economics, University of Siena. The usual disclaimers apply. Ariel Dvoskin, University of Siena (Italy) and University of Buenos Aires (Argentina). -
Staying the Invisible Hand
Staying the Invisible Hand Jeff Madrick JUNE 28, 2018 ISSUE Straight Talk on Trade: Ideas for a Sane World Economy by Dani Rodrik Princeton University Press, 316 pp., $29.95 In 1997, when Dani Rodrik, a Turkish- born professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, published his brief book Has Globalization Gone Too Far?, progressive economists widely embraced his arguments that many free trade policies adopted by the US, which reduced tariffs and other protections, also weakened the bargaining power of American workers, destabilized their wages, and encouraged social conflict. “The danger,” Rodrik wrote presciently, “is that the domestic consensus in favor of Martin Roemers/Panos Pictures A clothing market in Cairo, 2011; photograph by Martin Roemers open markets will ultimately erode to the from his book Metropoli, published by Hatje Cantz in 2015 point where a generalized resurgence of protectionism becomes a serious possibility.” I remember that Robert Kuttner, the coeditor of The American Prospect, was particularly enthusiastic about the book. Almost twenty years later, he again praised Rodrik for his continued devotion to an empirically grounded skepticism of what Rodrik now calls “hyperglobalization.” Has Globalization Gone Too Far? challenged a mainstream economic belief that in 1997 was accepted with increasing fervor: that reducing tariffs to encourage trade almost always resulted in a healthier, more rapidly growing economy for all nations. If some workers in industries that directly competed with rising imports lost their jobs or had their wages reduced, it was assumed that the economy would create enough new jobs to compensate. Free trade had been a principle of modern economic theory since Adam Smith. -
Report on H. Allais' Scientific Work
REPORT ON H. ALLAIS' SCIENTIFIC WORK * by Jean-Michel Grandmont Juin 1988 N° 8819 * CNRS and CEPREMAP, 142, rue du Chevaleret, 75013 Paris, France. REPORT ON H. ALLAIS' SCIENTIFIC tlORK ABSTRACT The report reviews brfefly the main scientific contributions in economics of Maurice ALLAIS, with specific emphasis on theory. KeYWords Maurice ALLAIS, equilibrium, welfare, uncertainty JEL code 020, 131 - - - - -- - -- - -- - - - -- - RAPPORT SUR L 'OEUVRE SCIENTIFIQUE DE H. ALLAIS RESUHE Le rapport évalue brièvement les principales contributions scientifiques en économie de Maurice ALLAIS, en portant l'accent sur la théorie. Mots clés Maurice ALLAIS, équilibre, bien-être, incertitude Code JEL 020, 131 REPORT ON H. ALLAIS' SCIENTIFIC tlORK J.M. Grandmont, June 1988 Maurice ALLAIS is without any doubt one of the most outstanding economists of his generation. He has had in particular a decisive direct and indirect influence from 1945 onward, on the development of economic research in France, and its subsequent opening to the international scientific community. Being initially an engineer himself, he has been teaching economics at the Ecole des Mines in Paris until the seventies, and managed to attract around him after World War II a brilliant cadre of young economists or gradua tes, such as Marcel BOITEUX, Gérard DEBREU, Jacques LESOURNE, Edmond MALINVAUD, André NATAF ••• The impact of Maurice ALLAIS on the state of our di sc ip l ine in France and at ·the international leve 1, has been indeed trèmendous, not only through his own great scientific achievements but also those of his students or disciples. 1. An anecdote circulates among French economists, claiming that the respective careers of two students of ALLAIS, i.e. -
Liberal Discourse
Liberal discourse - An invisible hand in free trade research? - An investigation into how global trade discourse is created through discourse interaction within research. COURSE: Globala studier 61-90, 30 hp PROGRAM: International work - global studies AUTHORS: John Bohman, Henrik Malmrot EXAMINATOR: Karl Hedman SEMESTER: VT17 JÖNKÖPING UNIVERSITY Bachelor Thesis School of Education and Communication Global Studies International Work Spring semester 2017 ABSTRACT _____________________________________________________________ John Bohman & Henrik Malmrot Pages: 30 Liberal discourse – An invisible hand in free trade research? An investigation into how global trade discourse is created through discourse interaction within research. _______________________________________________________________________ This paper uses a quantitative content analysis informed by a critical realist framework to study the patterns of international political economy discourse prevalence within research articles concerning free trade. Once categorized, there are observable differences in the extent to which articles in the different categories address other discourses. Analyzing these patterns using concepts from discourse theory, we suggest that the liberal discourse constitutes a regime of truth to which the other discourses must relate. It is also found that articles published in higher ranking journals are less likely to address other discourses. We argue that this could be explained as being an effect of the larger readership of those journals. Keywords: -
New Paradoxes in Intertemporal Choice
Judgment and Decision Making, Vol. 6, No. 2, February 2011, pp. 122–129 New paradoxes in intertemporal choice Li-Lin Rao∗ Shu Li† Abstract Similar to research on risky choice, the traditional analysis of intertemporal choice takes the view that an individual behaves so as to maximize the discounted sum of all future utilities. The well-known Allais paradox contradicts the fundamental postulates of maximizing the expected value or utility of a risky option. We describe a violation of the law of diminishing marginal utility as well as an intertemporal version of the Allais paradox. Keywords: intertemporal choice, risky choice, cancellation. 1 Introduction The most prominent idea to account for these anoma- lies is the hyperbolic discounting model (Ainslie, 1975). In the field of intertemporal choice, the discounted-utility This model suggests that the discount rate is not dy- (DU) theory proposed by Paul Samuelson in 1937 was namically consistent but that the rate is higher be- presented not only as a valid normative standard but also tween the present and near future and lower between as a descriptive theory of actual intertemporal choice be- the near and far distant future. Numerous theories have havior (Frederick, Loewenstein, & O’Donoghue, 2002; been developed by transforming the discount function Samuelson, 1937). In its general form, the DU theory to other forms, from one-parameter hyperbolic discount- proposes that the value of an option, (x; t), is the prod- ing (Mazur, 1984) to generalized hyperbolic discounting uct of its present utility, U(x), and an exponential tem- (Loewenstein & Prelec, 1992), to proportional discount- poral discounting function, F(t), where t is the time at ing (Harvey, 1994), and to quasi-hyperbolic discount- which x is acquired. -
MAURICE ALLAIS Ecole Nationale Superieure Des Mines De Paris Et Centre National De La Recherche Scientifique - France
AN OUTLINE OF MY MAIN CONTRIBUTIONS TO ECONOMIC SCIENCE Nobel Lecture, December 9, 1988 by MAURICE ALLAIS Ecole Nationale Superieure des Mines de Paris et Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - France The Nobel Prize which has been awarded to me by the Royal Academy of Sciences of Sweden is a very great honour by which I am deeply moved. I feel all the more honoured as for the first time this year the Prize-winner in Economic Sciences delivers his Nobel lecture before the Royal Academy of Sciences. It has become a tradition that the Prize-winner should present the main contributions of his work which are directly related to the motivation of the Prize which, in my case, is my “pioneering contributions to the theory of markets and efficient utilization of resources”.I should like to interpret this motivation in its broadest sense, that is to say, as relating to all those conditions which may ensure that the economy satisfies with maximum efficiency the needs of men given the limited resources they have at their disposal. THE MOTIVATION OF MY CAREER AS AN ECONOMIST, MY 1943 BOOK, AND ITS SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENTS The motivation of my career as an economist The contributions I have made to Economic Science make up a whole; and they can only be understood in the light of the motivations which prompted my career as an economist. Fascinated by History during my secondary education, then by Physics and Mechanics at the Ecole Polytechnique, I finally entered the national administration of mines in 1936. My true inclinations, however, lay elsewhere, and isolated as I was in a pro- vincial service, I devoted my leisure time to reading in the fields of physics and probability theory. -
Nine Lives of Neoliberalism
A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Plehwe, Dieter (Ed.); Slobodian, Quinn (Ed.); Mirowski, Philip (Ed.) Book — Published Version Nine Lives of Neoliberalism Provided in Cooperation with: WZB Berlin Social Science Center Suggested Citation: Plehwe, Dieter (Ed.); Slobodian, Quinn (Ed.); Mirowski, Philip (Ed.) (2020) : Nine Lives of Neoliberalism, ISBN 978-1-78873-255-0, Verso, London, New York, NY, https://www.versobooks.com/books/3075-nine-lives-of-neoliberalism This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/215796 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort Content Licence (especially Creative -
The Interjurisdictional Migration of European Authors of Liberty, 1660 – 1961: a Quantitative Analysis1
1 January 12, 2016 THE INTERJURISDICTIONAL MIGRATION OF EUROPEAN AUTHORS OF LIBERTY, 1660 – 1961: A QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS1 Niklas Potrafke2 Roland Vaubel3 Abstract Hume, Montesquieu and Kant were the first to suggest that the rise of liberty in Europe and the West has been due to political fragmentation and competition among rulers because the creative elites had the option of leaving the country in response to political repression. In this paper we estimate the extent to which emigrating authors of liberty actually reacted to such political and economic factors. We distinguish four types of repressive political events: restoration of an authoritarian monarchy, suppression of liberal protests, takeover by a totalitarian regime and occupation by a foreign repressive power. We test for additional explanations of emigration. Our sample of well-known authors of liberty includes 401 persons from twenty European countries in 1660 to 1961. Our logistic regressions yield the following main results. The repressive events did have significant and large effects on emigration with lags of up to five years. Emigration was also influenced by the author’s occupation and interjurisdictional income differentials. The probability of emigration was larger if the author was of middle age and lived in a small country but these effects were numerically small. The decision to emigrate was not affected by the author’s education. JEL classifications: F22, N33, Z18 _______________ 1 Acknowledgements: The authors thank Daniel Mannfeld, Felix Weber, Georg Arndt and Justina Fischer for tabulating the data and Justina Fischer and Jonathan Seiler for retrieving some of the data. We received helpful comments from Dennis Snower, David Stadelmann, Bengt-Arne Wickström and the participants of the World Public Choice Society Meetings 2012, the Silvaplana Workshop on Political Economy 2013, the CESifo Political Economy Workshop 2013 and two anonymous referees. -
The Anarcho-Capitalist Society a Critical Analysis of Huemer’S Society Without Government
The Anarcho-Capitalist Society A Critical Analysis of Huemer’s Society Without Government Jacob C. Castermans S1551809 MA Philosophical Perspectives on Politics and the Economy Dissertation Leiden University Spring 2020 Supervisor: W. Kalf WorD count: 21008 Table of Contents 1. Introduction .............................................................................................................................................. 3 1.1 The Government’s Growing Sphere of Influence ......................................................................................... 3 1.2 A Society Without Government .................................................................................................................... 3 1.3 A Philosophically Convincing Political Theory ........................................................................................... 4 1.4 Structure of the Dissertation ........................................................................................................................ 5 2. Critical Analysis of the Methodology ........................................................................................................ 7 2.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................................. 7 2.2 Common-Sense Morality .............................................................................................................................. 7 2.3 Ethical Intuitionism ..................................................................................................................................... -
Chapter 4 the Theory of Laissez-Faire
Page 15 Chapter 4 The Theory of Laissez-Faire It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own interest. — Adam Smith hy do some men succeed in business and others fail? Why are some people rich and others poor? Why does one company develop new products, make huge profits, and remain Wsuccessful while others fail? Why does one athlete become a superstar and another never makes the team? One possible answer to all these questions is that the successful are often better equipped to survive than those who fail. People who get ahead in life are usually those with both ability and the willingness to work hard. Those who fail either don’t have what it takes or just don’t work hard enough to get to the top. Some people believe that life is a jungle, that the rules of the game are to compete as hard as you can, take care of yourself and not to worry about others. If you lose, you have nobody to blame but yourself. Adam Smith and the Invisible Hand If you agree with the ideas in this introduction, then you probably agree with the philosophy of 'laissez-faire' and the social theory of 'survival of the fittest.' Such ideas are also guiding principles of the business people who do not want the government to interfere with their actions. It is the philosophy of those who are against ‘big government,' and who believe that too many rules in the business world prevent healthy, keen competition and stop progress. -
Property Is Only Another Name for Monopoly
University of Chicago Law School Chicago Unbound Journal Articles Faculty Scholarship 2017 Property Is Only Another Name For Monopoly Eric A. Posner E. Glen Weyl Follow this and additional works at: https://chicagounbound.uchicago.edu/journal_articles Part of the Law Commons Recommended Citation Eric Posner & E. Glen Weyl, "Property Is Only Another Name For Monopoly," 9 Journal of Legal Analysis 51 (2017). This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Faculty Scholarship at Chicago Unbound. It has been accepted for inclusion in Journal Articles by an authorized administrator of Chicago Unbound. For more information, please contact [email protected]. PROPERTY IS ONLY ANOTHER NAME FOR MONOPOLY Eric A. Posner* and E. Glen Weyl** ABSTRACT The existing system of private property interferes with allocative efficiency by giving owners the power to hold out for excessive prices. We propose a remedy in the form of a tax on property, based on the value self-assessed by its owner at intervals, along with a requirement that the owner sell the property to any third party willing to pay a price equal to the self-assessed value. The tax rate would reflect a tradeoff between gains from allocative efficiency and losses to investment efficiency, likely in the range of 5 to 10 percent annually for most assets. We discuss the detailed design of this system from an economic and legal perspective. INTRODUCTION Property rights of all sorts—in real estate, in shares of corporations, and in radio spectrum, to take three diverse examples—give the owner a monopoly over a resource.