Volume 8 / Number 1 / Spring 2016 CARNEGIE REPORTER WELCOME TO THE Volume 8 / Number 1 / Spring 2016 TABLE OF CONTENTS CARNEGIE REPORTER Chief Communications and Digital Strategies Officer Deanna Lee uclear annihilation. It’s a frightening, almost existential notion that many Director of Communications and Content Strategy of us—especially those born before or during the Cold War—have had Robert Nolan to consider at some point in our lives. Duck and cover drills and fallout Editor/Writer shelters, command and control procedures, the concept of mutually Kenneth C. Benson assured destruction—these once seemed to offer at least a veneer of Principal Designer Daniel Kitae Um security for Americans. But today’s nuclear threat has evolved and is somehow even more 06 14 N Researcher terrifying. As Carnegie Corporation President Vartan Gregorian writes in this issue of the Ronald Sexton Carnegie Reporter, “There is no longer a single proverbial ‘red phone’ in the event of a Production Assistant nuclear crisis.” Natalie Holt Carnegie Corporation of New York is a philanthropic foundation created by Nuclear security—and, more specifically, the threat of nuclear terrorism—was the Andrew Carnegie in 1911 to promote the subject of the fourth and final international Nuclear Security Summit organized by the advancement and diffusion of knowledge and understanding among the people of White House in Washington, D.C., last March, and is a focus point in this issue of the United States. Subsequently, its charter the Corporation’s flagship publication. In addition to the president’s letter, we feature was amended to permit the use of funds for the same purposes in certain countries that a graphic novel-like retelling of the dramatic 2007 break-in at the Pelindaba Nuclear are or have been members of the British Overseas Commonwealth. The goal of the 20 36 Research Centre in South Africa, a snapshot of the four scenarios in which a terrorist Carnegie Reporter is to be a hub of ideas group could carry out a nuclear attack, and policy prescriptions from our nuclear and a forum for dialogue about the work of foundations. security brain trust to help prevent any of those terrible scenarios from occurring. BOARD OF TRUSTEES “This is a responsibility that can’t be delegated to others,” says Joan Rohlfing of the Thomas H. Kean, Chair FROM THE PRESIDENT Nuclear Threat Initiative, a longtime Corporation partner in securing the world’s fissile Kurt L. Schmoke, Vice Chair “If you want to go far, go together”: 02 Vartan Gregorian, Ex officio and radioactive material. “It needs to start at the leader level.” Preventing Nuclear Catastrophe Pedro Aspe Stephen A. Oxman Lionel Barber Don M. Randel African Peacebuilding: Realities on the Ground Also in this issue, Hillary Wiesner, director of Carnegie Corporation’s Transnational Richard Beattie Louise Richardson The time has come to challenge received ideas about peacebuilding. 06 Geoffrey T. Boisi Janet L. Robinson Movements in the Arab Region program, opens up about the program’s strategy to Ralph Cicerone Jorge Sampaio engage social scientists in the Arab world, while Visiting Media Fellow Scott Malcomson Jared L. Cohon Anne Tatlock Widening the Lens on the Arab World John J. DeGioia Ann Claire Williams An interview with Carnegie Corporation’s Hillary Wiesner looks at the current state of peacebuilding in Africa. Corporation grantees in these areas Edward P. Djerejian James D. Wolfensohn 14 know their countries better than anyone else and are best placed to help resolve the many John S. Hendricks Judy Woodruff conflicts that have arisen in their respective regions. Our “Carnegie Results” department Helene L. Kaplan, Honorary Trustee CENTER POINT looks at the effort to bring more economic data into the all-too-often “fact-free” immigra- Newton N. Minow, Honorary Trustee The Greatest Threat: 20 tion debate, while our “End Note” spotlights a worrisome disconnect between parents’ Nuclear Terrorism in an Age of Vulnerability understanding of their children’s performance in school and how their children are actually CARNEGIE RESULTS testing. These stories, and more, come to life at carnegie.org. Dollars & Sense: Making the Fiscal Case for Immigration Reform 36 The Immigration Project crunches the numbers. NOTABLE EVENTS Robert Nolan 437 Madison Avenue Carnegie Medal of Philanthropy, I Love My Librarian! award, Aurora Prize 45 Director of Communications and Content Strategy, Carnegie Corporation of New York New York, New York 10022 for Awakening Humanity, New Library in Cape Town, and more Phone: 212.371.3200 Fax: 212.754.4073 carnegie.org END NOTE Navigating Your Child’s Academic Success Cover Illustration 49 James Fenner National survey leads straight to “Readiness Roadmap” for parents. 2 SUMMER 2015 CARNEGIE REPORTER 1 FROM THE PRESIDENT “If you want to go far, go together”: Preventing Breaches and Other Nuclear Security Incidents, Nuclear Catastrophe 2003–2014 f all the concerns Andrew Carnegie sought to address through his philanthropy, the pursuit of peace was of paramount impor- tance to him, especially as he grew older and the specter of a world war loomed Finland Oever larger. After all his advocacy in the name of peace and diplomacy, Mr. Carnegie was devastated by his inability to U.K. Belgium Russia prevent the outbreak of World War I and the catastrophe Canada Ireland Poland Germany Ukraine Kazakhstan that followed. Few could have imagined at the time that the France Romania Key term “The Great War,” as it was known, would a mere two Georgia Kyrgyzstan decades later no longer hold true, as World War II erupted U.S.A. Spain Italy Lebanon 2014 South Japan with even greater geographic reach and devastation. Most Iraq Iran China Korea 2013 frightening of all, the Second World War saw the introduc- 2012 Algeria Egypt Pakistan tion of the atomic bomb, placing into the hands of man, for 2 011 Mexico U.A.E. India the first time, the ability to wreak instantaneous and total 2010 destruction. 2009 Vietnam 2008 Costa Rica Sierra Leone Nigeria Since 1945, when humanity first witnessed the use of 2007 nuclear weapons at Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the Cor- 2006 2005 poration, along with several of its sister institutions, has Brazil 2004 Peru contributed significant funds to ensure nuclear security 2003 Bolivia 20 and nonproliferation. The Corporation’s trustees, like Namibia Mr. Carnegie decades before, have supported a variety Chile South Africa 15 of measures to avert global war and atomic disaster, Number of Incidents by Country noting that “without peace and the prospect of peace, 10 all other plans are worthless.” 5 Following World War II, and through the 1960s, the Cor- poration made a series of grants focused on understanding and managing the twin forces of atomic energy and nuclear Iran Iraq Italy Peru U.K. Brazil Chile Egypt India Spain weapons. Then, after a hiatus, in 1983 the Corporation Bolivia China France Ireland Japan Poland Russia U.A.E. U.S.A. AlgeriaBelgium Canada Finland Mexico NigeriaPakistan Ukraine Vietnam GeorgiaGermany Lebanon Namibia Romania Costa Rica Kyrgyzstan revived its efforts in the nuclear realm with the launch of Kazakhstan Sierra LeoneSouth AfricaSouth Korea the Avoiding Nuclear War Program. The initiative helped foster understanding of the nuclear threat and the necessi- ty of cooperation with the Soviet Union to avert accidental warfare or preemptive strikes. This included helping to Source: IAEA Incident and Trafficking Database and Nuclear Threat Initiative develop relationships of trust between Soviet and American (Max Fisher and Richard Johnson, The Washington Post, December 5, 2013) nuclear scientists and paving the way for confidence build- ing between Soviet General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev and U.S. President Ronald Reagan. 2 SPRING 2016 CARNEGIE REPORTER 3 With the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, which to improve the global nuclear security culture and raise the As a grantee, but more importantly as a partner, NTI has THE NEW YORK TIMES, THURSDAY, MARCH 31, 2016 A9 brought the Cold War to an end, tensions between the world’s standards for nuclear security. had many successes over the course of its 15-year history. United States and Russia abated. But this seminal shift in It has helped to secure vulnerable stockpiles of nuclear the international landscape led to new dangers, includ- For its part, from 1983 through today, the Corporation A Call to Action on Nuclear Terrorism materials to prevent their use by terrorists, while working ing the vulnerability of nuclear weapons and materials in has remained very active in supporting the work of to break down communication barriers to develop more Today, global leaders gather for a final Nuclear Security Summit to take The United States and Russia, with the vast majority of the world’s former Soviet republics. Since 1991, even as more than policymakers and nonprofit leaders in the nuclear realm, action to prevent terrorists from building and detonating a nuclear bomb. nuclear materials and weapons, have a special responsibility to lead. The effective standards on nuclear security. NTI has also helped This requires securing and reducing nuclear bomb-making materials— relationship between the U.S. and Russia has dangerously deteriorated, plutonium and highly enriched uranium—around the world. raising the risk of conflict instead of cooperation. We call upon the two a dozen countries have ended their nuclear weapons including work to prevent nuclear terrorism. Indeed, the countries to work to prevent ISIS and other violent groups from getting communicate a better public understanding of the urgency Since the Summits began, 11 countries have eliminated nuclear weapons these materials and to avoid another costly arms race. materials entirely. This is important progress, but the job is not done. The Summits are ending as the global terrorist threat is growing. There is no greater threat to humanity and to the promise of our children’s programs, and in a few cases dismantled their arsenals Corporation’s commitment to analysis and policy outreach future than the nuclear threat.